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  • Tahun Jumlah Penduduk

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    Fariz Irawan Hasibuan
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    This document contains a table showing population figures for a location from 1990 to 2005. It then presents 3 problems to calculate population projections for 2010, 2015 and 2020 using different growth methods: 1) Arithmetic growth projects populations of 4.65 million in 2010, 5.2 million in 2015, and 5.75 million in 2020. 2) Geometric growth projects populations of 4.74 million in 2010, 5.48 million in 2015, and 6.34 million in 2020. 3) Declining rate of arithmetic growth projects populations of 4.99 million in 2010, 5.47 million in 2015, and 5.71 million in 2020.

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    This document contains a table showing population figures for a location from 1990 to 2005. It then presents 3 problems to calculate population projections for 2010, 2015 and 2020 using different growth methods: 1) Arithmetic growth projects populations of 4.65 million in 2010, 5.2 million in 2015, and 5.75 million in 2020. 2) Geometric growth projects populations of 4.74 million in 2010, 5.48 million in 2015, and 6.34 million in 2020. 3) Declining rate of arithmetic growth projects populations of 4.99 million in 2010, 5.47 million in 2015, and 5.71 million in 2020.

    Copyright:

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    Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    12 views5 pages

    Tahun Jumlah Penduduk

    Uploaded by

    Fariz Irawan Hasibuan
    This document contains a table showing population figures for a location from 1990 to 2005. It then presents 3 problems to calculate population projections for 2010, 2015 and 2020 using different growth methods: 1) Arithmetic growth projects populations of 4.65 million in 2010, 5.2 million in 2015, and 5.75 million in 2020. 2) Geometric growth projects populations of 4.74 million in 2010, 5.48 million in 2015, and 6.34 million in 2020. 3) Declining rate of arithmetic growth projects populations of 4.99 million in 2010, 5.47 million in 2015, and 5.71 million in 2020.

    Copyright:

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    of 5

    1.

    Dik:

    Tahun

    Jumlah Penduduk

    1990

    3736870

    1991

    3386350

    1992

    3689431

    1993

    3667774

    1994

    3724694

    1995

    4415195

    1996

    3592646

    1997

    4344800

    1998

    4750420

    1999

    4843590

    2000

    3489746

    2001

    3551862

    2002

    3610432

    2003

    3711885

    2004

    3945411

    2005

    4100934

    Populasi tahun 2001

    = 3551862

    Populasi tahun 2005 = 4100934

    a.

    Misalkan Psat

    = 6000000

    =5

    Populasi tahun 2010, 2015, 2020 dengan metode Aritmatik Growth?

    b.

    Populasi tahun 2010, 2015, 2020 dengan metode Geometrik


    Growth?

    c.

    Populasi tahun 2010, 2015, 2020 dengan metode Aritmatik Growth


    Declining Rate Of Growth?

    Jawab :
    a. K a =

    Ka =

    P2 P1
    t
    4100934 3551862
    5

    Ka =109814 ,4

    P2010 = 4100934 +109814 ,4( 5)


    Pt = 4100934 + 549072
    P2010 = 4650006

    P2015 = 4100934 +109814 ,4(10 )


    Pt = 4100934 +1098144
    P2015 = 5199078

    P2020 = 4100934 +109814 ,4(15 )

    Pt = 4100934 +1647216
    P2020 = 5748150

    b. K P =

    KP =

    ln P2 ln P1
    t
    ln 4100934 ln 3551862
    5

    K P = 0.029

    ln Pt = ln 4100934 + 0.029 ( 5)
    ln Pt = 15 .227 + 0.145
    ln Pt =15 .372
    P2010 = 4742144

    ln Pt = ln 4100934 + 0.029 (10 )


    ln Pt =15 .227 + 0.29
    ln Pt =15 .517
    P2015 = 5482106

    ln Pt = ln 4100934 + 0.029 (15 )


    ln Pt = 15 .227 + 0.435

    ln Pt =15 .662
    P2020 = 6337532

    c. K D =

    1 Psat P2

    ln
    t Psat P1

    1 6000000 4100934
    K D = ln

    2 6000000 3551862

    1 1899066
    K D = ln

    2 2448138
    1
    K D = ln ( 0.776 )
    2

    KD =

    1
    0.254
    2

    K D = 0.127

    Pt = P0 + ( Psat P0 ) 1 e K Dt

    Pt = 4100934 + ( 6000000 4100934 ) (1 e ( 0.127 )( 5 ) )


    Pt = 4100934 + ( 6000000 4100934 ) (1 e ( 0.127 )( 5 ) )
    Pt = 4100934 + (1899066
    Pt = 4100934 + ( 892561 )
    P2010 = 4993495

    )( 0.47 )

    Pt = P0 + ( Psat P0 ) 1 e K Dt

    Pt = 4100934 + ( 6000000 4100934 ) (1 e ( 0.127 )( 10 ) )

    Pt = 4100934 + ( 6000000 4100934 ) (1 e ( 0.127 )( 10 ) )


    Pt = 4100934 + (1899066

    )( 0.72 )

    Pt = 4100934 + (1367327

    P2015 = 5468261

    Pt = P0 + ( Psat P0 ) 1 e K Dt

    Pt = 4100934 + ( 6000000 4100934 ) (1 e ( 0.127 )(15 ) )


    Pt = 4100934 + ( 6000000 4100934 ) (1 e ( 0.127 )(15 ) )
    Pt = 4100934 + (1899066

    )( 0.85 )

    Pt = 4100934 + (1614206

    P2020 = 5715140

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