Mt s bin ngu nhin thng dng

Gii bi 4.1. Gi X l s con trai trong mt gia nh c 4 con th X B(4; 0.5)

a. Xc sut c hai trai v hai gi trong bn a con l
P (X = 2) = C42 (0.5)2 (0.5)2 = 0.375
b. Xc sut c mt con trai trong s bn a con l
P (X = 1) = C41 (0.5)1 (0.5)3 = 0.25
c. Xc sut c bn u l trai l
P (X = 4) = C44 (0.5)4 (0.5)0 = 0.0625

Gii bi 4.3. Gi X l s cuc gi nhn c trong 1 pht th X c phn phi

Poisson vi trung bnh 3, ngha l X P (3).
Xc sut trung tm bu in nhn c 1 cuc, 2 cuc v 3 cuc gi trong 1 pht
ln lt l
1
3 3

= 0.149
1!
32
P (X = 2) = e3 = 0.224
2!
3
3
P (X = 3) = e3 = 0.224
3!
P (X = 1) = e

Gii bi 4.5. Gi X l s trng hp cn chm sc c bit trong 20 ca sinh. Ta c,

X B(20; 0.01).
a. Xc sut khng c trng hp no cn chm sc c bit l
0
P (X = 0) = C20
(0.01)0 (0.99)20 = 0.818

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b. Xc sut c ng mt trng hp cn chm sc c bit l
1
P (X = 1) = C20
(0.01)1 (0.99)19 = 0.165

c. Xc sut c nhiu hn mt trng hp cn chm sc c bit l

P (X > 1) = 1 [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1)] = 1 (0.818 + 0.165) = 0.017
Khi xp x phn phi nh thc bng phn phi Poisson, ngha l X P (20 0.01) =
P (0.2), ta nhn c
P (X = 0) = e0.2 = 0.819
0.21
P (X = 1) = e0.2
= 0.164
1!
P (X > 1) = 1 [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1)]
= 1 (0.819 + 0.164) = 0.017
Kt lun : Vi c mu 20 v t l bnh p = 0.01 th kt qu ca hai loi phn phi
ny xp x nh nhau.
Gii bi 4.7. Gi X l ng knh ca chi tit my th X N (, 2 ), vi = 50 mm
v = 0.05 mm
a. Xt bin c A: nhn c sn phm t yu cu, ta c
P (A) = P (49.9 X 50.1)
X
X 50
=
, th Y N (0, 1). Do ,

0.05


49.9 50
X 50
50.1 50
P (49.9 X 50.1) = P

0.05
0.05
0.05
= P (2 Y 2)

Mt khc nu ta t Y =

= 2(2) 1
= 0.954
Vy xc sut nhn c sn phm t yu cu l 95.4%.
b. Gi X l s sn phm t yu cu trong 3 sn phm ly ra th X B(3, 0.954).
Suy ra xc sut c t nht mt sn phm t yu cu l
P (X 1) = 1 P (X = 0)
= 1 C30 (0.954)0 (0.046)3
= 0.999

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Gii bi 4.9. Gi X l s sn phm khng t tiu chun trong 10 sn phm ly ra.

2000
Ta c, X B(10,
) = B(10, 0.25).
8000
Khi , xc sut trong 10 sn phm ly ra c 2 sn phm khng t tiu chun l
2
(0.25)2 (0.75)8 = 0.282
P (X = 2) = C10

Gii bi 4.11. Ta bit rng s cuc in thoi gi n trong khong thi gian t c
phn phi Poisson. Do ,
a. Gi X l s cuc gi trong 2 pht. Khi , X P (4).
Ta c xc sut c ng 5 cuc in thoi trong 2 pht l
P (X = 5) = e4

45
= 0.156
5!

b. Gi Y l s cuc gi trong 30 giy. Khi , X P (1).

Ta c xc sut khng c cuc in thoi no trong khong thi gian 30 giy l
P (Y = 0) = e1

10
= 0.368
0!

1
c. Gi Z l s cuc gi trong 10 giy. Khi , X P ( ).
3
Ta c xc sut c t nht 1 cuc in thoi trong khong thi gian 10 giy l
1

P (Z 1) = 1 P (Z = 0) = 1 e 3 = 0.283

Gii bi 4.13. Ta c, X B(200, 0.485). Do n 20, p = 0.485 khng qu gn 0

hoc 1, nn ta c th p dng cng thc xp x phn phi chun.
P (X 95) = 1 P (X < 95)
= 1P

X 200(0.485)
95 200(0.485)
p
p
200(0.485)(0.515)
200(0.485)(0.515)

1 (0.283)
= (0.283) = 0.61

Gii bi 4.15.
a. Trc ht ta lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X v Y nh sau:

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0.2

0.8

0.64

0.32

0.04

Ta c,
P (X + Y = 0) = P (X = 0, Y = 0)
= P (X = 0)P (Y = 0)
= 0.512
P (X + Y = 1) = P (X = 0, Y = 1) + P (X = 1, Y = 0)
= P (X = 0)P (Y = 1) + P (X = 1)P (Y = 0)
= 0.384
P (X + Y = 2) = P (X = 0, Y = 2) + P (X = 1, Y = 1)
= P (X = 0)P (Y = 2) + P (X = 1)P (Y = 1)
= 0.096
P (X + Y = 3) = P (X = 1, Y = 2)
= P (X = 1)P (Y = 2)
= 0.008
T suy ra bng phn phi xc sut ca X + Y l
X +Y

0.512

0.384

0.096

0.008

Kim tra X + Y B(3, 51 ). Ta c,

P (X + Y = 0) =
P (X + Y = 1) =
P (X + Y = 2) =
P (X + Y = 3) =

 0  3
1
4
5
5
 1  2
1
4
C31
5
5
 2  1
1
4
C32
5
5
 3  0
1
4
C33
5
5
C30

Vy X + Y B(3, 15 ).
b. Ta lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X v Y nh sau:

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0.5

0.5

0.64

0.32

0.04

Ta c,
P (X + Y = 0) = P (X = 0, Y = 0)
= P (X = 0)P (Y = 0)
= 0.32
P (X + Y = 1) = P (X = 0, Y = 1) + P (X = 1, Y = 0)
= P (X = 0)P (Y = 1) + P (X = 1)P (Y = 0)
= 0.48
P (X + Y = 2) = P (X = 0, Y = 2) + P (X = 1, Y = 1)
= P (X = 0)P (Y = 2) + P (X = 1)P (Y = 1)
= 0.18
P (X + Y = 3) = P (X = 1, Y = 2)
= P (X = 1)P (Y = 2)
= 0.02
T suy ra bng phn phi xc sut ca X + Y l
X +Y

0.32

0.48

0.18

0.02

Gi s X + Y c phn b nh thc dng B(3, p). Khi ,

P (X + Y = 0) = C30 p0 (1 p)3 = 0.32
Ta suy ra, p = 0.316
Mt khc, vi gi tr p ny,
P (X + Y = 3) = C33 p3 (1 p)0 = p3 = 0.0316 > 0.02 (v l)
Vy X + Y khng c phn b nh thc.

Gii bi 4.17. Gi X l s b th my c sai trong mi pht.

Ta c, X B(5000, 0.0004)

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a. S b th trung bnh mi pht my c sai l
EX = 5000.(0.0004) = 2
b. S b th tin chc nht trong mi pht my c sai l s b th m xc sut my
c sai l ln nht, tc l M od(X). Ta c,
5000.(0.0004) 0.9996 M od(X) 5000.(0.0004) + 0.9996
tc l 1.0004 M od(X) 2.9996
Suy ra M od(X) = 2.
c. Xc sut trong mt pht my c sai t nht 3 b th l
P (X 3) = 1 P (X < 3)
= 1 [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)]
Do n = 5000 100, p = 0.0004 0.01, np = 2 20. Nn ta c th tnh cc xc
sut xp x theo lut Poisson nh sau,
P (X 3) = 1 [P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)]


21 22
2
= 1e
1+
+
1!
2!
= 0.323

Gii bi 4.19. t Y1 =

X1 140
X2 200
, Y2 =
th Y1 N (0, 1), Y2 N (0, 1).
50
60

Ta c,
P (X1 80) = 1 P (X1 < 80)


X1 140
80 140
= 1P
<
50
50
= 1 P (Y1 < 1.2)
= 1 (1.2)
= (1.2) = 0.885
P (X2 80) = 1 P (X2 < 80)


X2 200
80 200
= 1P
<
60
60
= 1 P (Y2 < 2)
= 1 (2)
= (2) = 0.977

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Vy ta nn chn phng n 2.
Gii bi 4.21. Gi X l s xe c yu cu cho thu ca trm trong 1 ngy. Ta c,
X P (2.8).
a. S tin trung bnh trm thu c trong mt ngy l
T = 20EX 3(8) = 32 U SD
b. s tin trung bnh trm thu c trong mt ngy trong trng hp trm c 4
chic xe l
T = 20EX 4(8) = 24 U SD
c. Trm nn c 3 chic xe.