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Yarra Business and Industrial Land Strategy

Background Report Yarra City Council Draft October 2011

This report has been prepared for:

Yarra City Council

This report has been prepared by: SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd ACN 007 437 729 Level 5 171 Latrobe Street MELBOURNE VIC 3000 P: + 61 3 8616 0331 F: + 61 3 8616 0332 E: sgsvic@sgsep.com.au W: www.sgsep.com.au

Offices in Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne, Perth, Sydney

Table of Contents

E XE CUT IVE SUMMARY ................................................................... i


Purpose ........................................................................................................................... i Key Findings .................................................................................................................... i

1
1.1 1.2 1.3

IN T RO DUCT IO N .................................................................... 1
Strategy Method...................................................................................................... 3 Strategy Scope ....................................................................................................... 4 Report Structure ..................................................................................................... 4

2
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5

DE MAN D SIDE IN FL UEN CE S .................................................... 5


Global to Local Trends .............................................................................................. 5 Other Factors Impacting on Business and Industry ........................................................ 7 Influence of Agglomeration Economies ........................................................................ 8 Agglomeration Benefits for Industries ....................................................................... 10 Spatial Implications ............................................................................................... 11 2.5.1 2.5.2 2.5.3 Conventional Industrial Development Typologies ............................................ 11 Conventional Office Development Typologies ................................................. 13 Restricted Retail and Bulky Goods Precincts ................................................... 14 Population Growth and Projections ............................................................... 15 SEIFA Profile ............................................................................................ 17 Workforce Skills and Qualifications ............................................................... 19 Employment by Industry (Workers) ............................................................. 23 Gross Value Added by Industry ................................................................... 33 Export and Local Sectors ............................................................................ 34 Industry Specialisation and Growth .............................................................. 36 Employment Projections ............................................................................. 38 Land Requirements ................................................................................... 40

2.6

Yarras Economic Profile .......................................................................................... 15 2.6.1 2.6.2 2.6.3 2.6.4 2.6.5 2.6.6 2.6.7 2.6.8 2.6.9

3
3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5

SUPPL Y SIDE CO N DIT ION S .................................................. 43


Regional Context ................................................................................................... 43 Floorspace and Land Area by Zone ............................................................................. 5 Land Use Mix by Zone .............................................................................................. 6 Property Market Conditions ..................................................................................... 10 Role of Activity Centres .......................................................................................... 13

4
4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

RE GION AL A N D LO CA L POLICY CO N TEXT ............................... 15


Population ............................................................................................................ 15 Industry and Workforce .................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined. Transport ............................................................................................................. 16 Urban Environment ................................................................................................ 16 Investment Attraction ............................................................................................ 18

Table of Contents
4.6 Governance .......................................................................................................... 18

5
5.1 5.2 5.3

CO N SULT AT ION FIN DIN GS ................................................... 19


Location Attributes and Business Investment.............................................................. 19 Challenges for Yarras Business and Industrial Areas .................................................... 20 Role of Council ...................................................................................................... 21

6
6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4

PRE CIN CT ANA L YSIS ........................................................... 23


Precinct Typology .................................................................................................. 23 The Precincts ........................................................................................................ 24 Headline Precinct Indicators .................................................................................... 27 Precinct Descriptions .............................................................................................. 30 6.4.1 6.4.2 6.4.3 6.4.4 6.4.5 Main Road Business Strip (15) .................................................................... 30 Core Industrial or Business Node (11) .......................................................... 44 Pocket Industrial Precinct (4) ...................................................................... 56 Stand Alone Office Precinct (3) .................................................................... 60 Activity Centre Precinct (4) ......................................................................... 62

7
7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4

IMPL ICAT ION S FO R T HE ST RAT E GY ....................................... 67


Demand Side Conditions ......................................................................................... 67 Supply Side Conditions ........................................................................................... 69 Regional and Local Policy Context ............................................................................. 70 Precinct Analysis ................................................................................................... 72

8
8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5

DE VE LO PME NT O PPO RT UN IT IE S ........................................... 74


Likely Development Types....................................................................................... 74 Unlikely Development Types .................................................................................... 75 Precinct Typology .................................................................................................. 76 Main Opportunities for Precincts ............................................................................... 77 Principles to Guide Opportunity Evaluation ................................................................. 80

A PPEN DIX A DO CUMEN T RE VIE W .............................................. 81


Figures Figure 1: Business 2-5 and Industrial Zones in the City of Yarra ............................................... 1 Figure 2: Melbourne Effective Job Density ............................................................................ 9 Figure 3: Estimated Industry Sector Productivity Benefits from Doubling Effective Job Density .... 11 Figure 4: SEIFA, City of Yarra, 2006 .................................................................................. 11 Figure 5: Workforce Skills and Qualifications, Yarra City, Inner Melbourne, Melbourne SD, 2006 .119 Figure 6: Workforce Skills and Qualifications, Yarra City, 1996 2006 .................................... 20 Figure 7: % of Graduate and Postgraduate Population Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Melbourne SD, 2011 ....................................................................................................... 21 Figure 8: % of Graduate and Postgraduate Population Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Yarra Focus Map, 2011 ..................................................................................................... 22

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Table of Contents
Figure 9: Employment by Industry, Yarra LGA, 1996 2006 ................................................. 23 Figure 10: Employment Change by Industry, Yarra SLAs, Yarra LGA, Inner Melbourne and Melbourne, 2006 ............................................................................................................. 25 Figure 11: % of Total Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Melbourne SD, 2011 ................. 23 Figure 12: % of Total Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Yarra City Focus Map, 2011 ........ 27 Figure 13: % of Total Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes by Public Transport, Melbourne SD, 201128 Figure 14: % of Total Manufacturing Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Melbourne SD, 201129 Figure 15: % of Total Manufacturing Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Yarra City Focus Map, 2011 ............................................................................................................. 30 Figure 16: % of Total Logistics Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Melbourne SD, 2011 ..... 31 Figure 17: % of Total Logistics Jobs Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Yarra City Focus Map, 2011 .................................................................................................................... 32 Figure 18: Share of Gross Value Added, 2008, City of Yarra SLAs and LGA, Inner Melbourne, Melbourne SD ................................................................................................. 33 Figure 19: Location Quotient of Industries, 1 Digit ANZSIC, Yarra City compared to Victoria, 200635 Figure 20: Location Quotient of Industries, 1 Digit ANZSIC, Yarra City Compared to Victoria, 2001 & 2006 ............................................................................................................. 36 Figure 21: Growth Share Matrix, City of Yarra, By Employment (LQ with Victoria), 2006 ............ 37 Figure 22: Core Industrial Land Requirements .................................................................... 41 Figure 23: Business Land Requirements ............................................................................. 42 Figure 24: Business and Industrial Land, Yarra, 2009 ........................................................... 44 Figure 25: Regional Context Map, Yarra and Surrounding Municipalities..................................... 3 Figure 26: Melbournes Industrial Nodes .............................................................................. 3 Figure 27: Floorspace by Land Use, Business 2 Zone, City of Yarra, 2010 .................................. 7 Figure 28: Floorspace by Land Use, Business 3 Zone, City of Yarra, 2010 .................................. 7 Figure 29: Floorspace by Land Use, Business 4 Zone, City of Yarra, 2010 .................................. 8 Figure 30: Floorspace by Land Use, Business 5 Zone, City of Yarra, 2010 .................................. 8 Figure 31: Floorspace by Land Use, Industrial 1 Zone, City of Yarra, 2010 ................................. 9 Figure 32: Median Capital Improved Value by Zone ............................................................. 95 Figure 33: Median Net Annual Value by Zone ...................................................................... 11 Figure 34: Median Net Annual Value by Zone ...................................................................... 11 Figure 35: Median Site Value by Zone................................................................................ 12 Figure 36: Total Number of Properties by Zone ................................................................... 57 Figure 37: Activity Centres and Business 1 Zone Areas in Yarra ............................................. 59 Figure 38: Business and Industrial Precincts, City of Yarra .................................................... 59 Figure 39: Average Building Size by Precinct, 2010 .............................................................. 28 Figure 40: Average Land Area by Precinct, 2010 ................................................................. 29 Tables Table 1: Inner Melbourne Employment Projections, (000) ...................................................... 8 Table 2: Historical Population Growth, Inner Region, 1996 2006 .......................................... 15 Table 3: Population Projections, Inner Region, 2006 2026 .................................................. 16 Table 4: Population Projections, Yarra, 2006 2026 ............................................................ 16 Table 5: Population Projections by Age Group, Inner Region, 2006 2026 ............................... 17 Table 6: Employment Projections by Industry, Yarra, 2006 26 ............................................ 39 Table 7: Estimated Industrial Land Requirements 2006 2026 .............................................. 40

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Table of Contents
Table 8: Estimated Land Requirements (including Business) 2006 2026................................ 41 Table 9: Industrial 1 & 3 and Business 3 Zone Land, Yarra and Surrounding Municipalities ........... 0 Table 10: Industrial Land Supply, Melbournes Industrial Zones, 2009..................................... 49 Table 11: Total Floorspace and Land Area by Zone, City of Yarra, 2010 ................................... 50 Table 12: Total Land Area and Floorspace by Precinct .......................................................... 27 Table 13: Summary of Development Opportunities .............................................................. 78

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Purpose
This report is a background report to the Yarra Business and Industrial Land Strategy. It explores the demand and supply side contexts for business and industrial land in Yarra, the local policy context and presents a summary of precincts and consultation findings. This report provides a land and floorspace stocktake of business and industrial land in Yarra and sets out employment and floorspace projections and scenarios for the associated land requirements. This report identifies implications from the demand and supply analysis, the local policy context and the precinct analysis. A summary of likely and unlikely development opportunities are also provided as well as an evaluation matrix which informs the Yarra Business and Industrial Land Strategy.

Key Findings
The report identifies the following findings: D eman d S i d e Development in Yarras business and industrial areas has and will continue to be influenced by a range of external factors including globalisation, the gradual decline in traditional labour-intensive and heavy industry, growth in the service sector and advanced business services, and shifting locational requirements for logistics to suburban and metropolitan fringe locations. Yarra will be influenced by the forces of agglomeration present in the inner region of Melbourne. Research has shown that locations or cities with high job densities translate into higher economic productivity, or value of output per worker. Agglomeration of businesses in centres or nodes provides some firms with an opportunity to boost productivity through better access to financial and non financial relationships and from having a recognisable address for customer and workers. It is expected that Yarra will become more sought after as a location for business services and high order employment uses. Population growth in Yarra between 1996 and 2006 was around 0.9%p.a. Victoria in Future 2008 Population Projections for Yarra suggest Yarra is expected to grow by 14,700 (+0.9% p.a.) to 2026. The majority of the population increase is expected to be accommodated in the Yarra North SLA which is expected to grow by 1.1% p.a. Independent population projections for Yarra City Council are for 97,855 by 2026 (id Consulting, 2011).

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The workforce profile of Yarra is becoming increasingly skilled with growth in postgraduate degrees and bachelor degrees between 1996 and 2006.

The inner and eastern regions provide access to around 50-60% of all graduate and postgraduate skills in Melbourne with the greatest concentrations around population and tertiary education centres in Monash, Parkville and around Deakin University in Box Hill. Further, 60% of all jobs are accessible within a thirty minute drive from the CBD and inner eastern suburbs. Yarra is well placed in being able to access these diverse skills and jobs bases as an inner city municipality.

Yarra had a total job stock of 57,000 jobs in 2006, an increase from 52,800 jobs in 1996. Key sectors of employment were Health Care and Social Assistance (9,600 jobs), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (6,900 jobs), and Retail Trade (6,700 jobs). This profile has changed since 1996 where the dominant sectors were Manufacturing (10,100 jobs), Health Care and Social Assistance (8,300 jobs) and Wholesale Trade (6,200 jobs).

The Yarra municipality had a Gross Value Added (GVA) of $5.7 million in 2008. The total GVA for the Yarra (C) North SLA was 3.0 million whilst the contribution from the Yarra (C) - Richmond SLA was 2.7 million.

Location quotient mapping suggests that the key export sectors in the Yarra economy are Information Media and Telecommunications, Wholesale Trade, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Financial and Insurance Services, Health Care and Social Assistance and Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services.

SGS employment forecasts indicate that total employment will continue to grow to approximately 71,300 by 2016 and 86,000 by 2026. Large employing industries are expected to consolidate their share including Retail Trade which will command 10% of total employment share. Other growth sectors are expected to be Financial and Insurance Services and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services.

S u pp l y S id e According to the Yarra Planning Scheme, Yarra had 233 hectares of business and industrial zoned land comprising 140 hectares of business zoned land and 82 hectares of industrial zoned land. According to the 2010 Yarra Rates database, Yarra had 1.5million sqm of business and industrial floorspace covering 230 ha of business and industrial land. Total business floorspace was around 1million sqm with industrial floorspace comprising 480,000 sqm. Yarra had a total of 145 ha of business zoned land and 85 ha of industrial zoned land. The total capital improved value (CIV) of properties identified in the rates database (including only B2Z, B3Z, B4Z, B5Z, IND1Z and IND3Z properties) in 2010 was $4.8 billion. The average CIV of each property was $1.1 million with the median CIV at $605,000.

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Under Melbourne 2030, Yarra has five Major Activity Centres (MACs) which are Brunswick Street, Fitzroy, Smith Street, Fitzroy, Victoria Street, Richmond, Bridge Road, Richmond and Swan Street, Richmond. Activity centres are outside the scope of this Strategy.

P r o sp ect s Yarras Economic Development Strategy is the key strategic document supporting economic and employment growth to improve liveability and wellbeing across the municipality. The Strategy provides a strategic basis for business development in Yarras business and industrial areas. Council has prepared the Gipps Precinct Local Area Plan which recommends that the area be rezoned from IND1Z to B3Z to allow a greater array of activities. In a 2006 study, it was estimated that there were 6,000 employed persons. Of these employed persons, manufacturing constituted 21% of employment and wholesale trade comprised 17%. Council is progressively developing structure plans for its major activity centres with structure plans for Victoria Street, Richmond and Smith Street, Fitzroy having been prepared. A structure plan is currently being prepared for the Swan Street MAC. Whilst outside the scope of this Strategy, ongoing development in activity centres will continue to support the economic viability in nearby business and industrial areas and vice versa. There are many interactions and links between business and industrial land in this Strategy and activity centre development. A total of thirty-six precincts have been identified for this study including fourteen Main Road Business Strips, eleven Core Industrial or Business Nodes, four Pocket Industrial Precincts, three Stand Alone Office Precincts, and four Activity Centre Precincts. This precinct typology forms the basis of the Strategy for Yarras business and industrial areas. Based on the research, the likely development opportunities for Yarras business and industrial precincts in the future will be mixed use developments, retail showrooms and bulky goods stores, retail complexes in activity centres, commercial office conversions, small offices complexes, light industry and office warehouses, and community facilities. Other opportunities are likely to come from major anchor land use expansions and major anchor land use transformations. Based on the research, the unlikely development opportunities for Yarras business and industrial in the future will be large scale commercial office towers, large scale manufacturing and logistics activity, large scale shopping centres and low density housing.

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INTRODUCTION

SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd. (SGS) was commissioned by Yarra City Council to prepare the Yarra Business and Industrial Land Strategy (the Strategy). The Strategy has been born out of ongoing development pressure on Yarras business and industrial precincts and as such this Strategy sets a strategic direction for ongoing development of these areas across the municipality. The Strategy covers all land within the Business 2, 3, 4 and 5 Zones and all land zoned for industrial purposes (Industrial 1 and 3 Zones). The scope of the Strategy excludes the Mixed Use Zone (MUZ) and the Business 1 Zone (B1Z). The relevant zones are shown in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: Business 2-5 and Industrial Zones in the City of Yarra

Source: SGS Economics and Planning

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The purpose of each zone as set out in the Victoria Planning Provisions (VPP) is as follows: Business 2 Zone: The Business 2 Zone (B2Z) is the core zone for office and commercial development. The purpose of the zone is: To encourage the development of offices and associated commercial uses. Business 3 Zone: The Business 3 Zone (B3Z) is related primarily to employment uses which include a combination of office and manufacturing activities. The purpose of the zone is: To encourage the integrated development of offices and manufacturing industries and associated commercial and industrial uses. Business 4 Zone: The Business 4 Zone (B4Z) supports to the development of bulky goods retailing and associated manufacturing and business services. The purpose of the zone is: To encourage the development of a mix of bulky goods retailing and manufacturing industry and their associated business services. Business 5 Zone: The purpose of the zone is: To encourage the development of offices or multidwelling units with common access from the street. Industrial 1 Zone: The Industrial 1 Zone (IND1Z) supports general manufacturing and distribution activities which have minimal impact on residential areas. The purpose of the zone is: To provide for manufacturing industry, the storage and distribution of goods and associated uses in a manner which does not affect the safety and amenity of local communities. Industrial 3 Zone: The Industrial 3 Zone (IND3Z) supports light industry which can locate adjacent to residential areas and can act as a buffer to the Industrial 1 and 2 Zones. The purpose of the zone is To provide for industries and associated uses in specific areas where special consideration of the nature and impacts of industrial uses is required or to avoid inter-industry conflict. To provide a buffer between the Industrial 1 Zone or Industrial 2 Zone and local communities, which allows for industries and associated uses compatible with the nearby community. To ensure that uses do not affect the safety and amenity of adjacent, more sensitive land uses The Business 5 Zone (B5Z) supports the development of business precincts.

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1.1

Strategy Method

The Strategy is being developed in accordance with the following method.

Inception Meeting

Regional and Local Trends

Review of Existing Studies, Strategies and Policies

Land, Floorspace and Zoning Audit

Business and Employment Analysis

Property Market Analysis

Transport and Infrastructure Analysis

Consultation

Draft Internal Analysis Report

Project Control Group and Internal Stakeholders Meeting

Options Identification

Options Evaluation

Prepare Draft Business and Industrial Land Strategy

Project Control Group Meeting

Project Control Group Meeting

Council Endorsement Process

Public Consultation

Finalisation

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1.2

Strategy Scope

The brief notes the following scope of the Yarra Business and Industrial Land Strategy as: Strategic land use planning applying economic, demographic and related analysis about trends in business and industrial activity to produce a concise strategy to guide future land use planning decisions, planning scheme changes and permit decisions. Economics developing a strategy about the potential for new industrial, office and retail activity and how to maximise the community benefits from increased economic activity. Infrastructure analyse the need for infrastructure to support the potential growth in economic activity in these areas, including transport, physical services and communications.

1.3

Report Structure

This Background Report is structured as follows: Section 2: Section 3: Section 4: Section 5: Section 6: Section 7: Section 8: Demand side influences; Supply side conditions; Regional and local policy context; Consultation findings; Precinct analysis; Implications for the Strategy; and Development opportunities

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DEMAND SIDE INFLUENCES

This section provides information on trends affecting and driving business and industry and its structure now and into the future. This topic is addressed by examining the following topics: Global to local trends; Other factors impacting on industry; Influence of agglomeration economies; Industry elasticities for Melbourne; Spatial implications; and Yarras economic profile

2.1

Global to Local Trends

The major forces and trends which have shaped and are reshaping economies and industrial development globally and in Australia are described below. Globalisation - This describes greater economic integration across nations and trade blocs, due to technological advancements in transport and communications and dismantling of trade barriers. This has led to increasing capital and goods flow across the globe and to a lesser extent, labour flows (mainly in high skilled occupations). In Australia, government policy has facilitated economic globalisation by lowering industry protection (eg. tariffs) to develop a more outward looking and export competitive economy. In short, this means that businesses must be globally competitive and increasingly export oriented to survive. Unbundling of the Supply Chain and the Blurring of Production and Service Work - Instead of firms carrying out all aspects of the value chain in-house, firms are now more likely to outsource all but key functions. This increases efficiency in the value adding process. An upshot of this process is that firms and perhaps economic regions increasingly specialise in one or a number of roles in the production chain such as management, research & development, production, distribution, marketing & sales, service & customer support but not necessarily all of these roles. In developed nations, this global trend has seen a gradual decline of traditional labour-intensive and heavy industry and greater use of employment land for hi-tech production, assembly, business services, transport & logistics and other uses. China as the Factory to the World - China has already captured a large share of global value chains in textiles, clothing & footwear and household goods, mostly driven by foreign direct investment. This has not yet been matched by investment in the services sector, due to greater regulation and a high degree of state ownership. But this is set to change with official policy seeking to increase the sophistication in manufacturing by increasing levels of research and development and advanced manufacturing.

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Business Convergence and Supply Chains - Many multi-national industrial enterprises are consolidating their operations to enhance economies of scale and scope. There has also been a greater tendency for large corporations to merge with or acquire competitors. This is particularly evident in the automotive sector where 40 companies in the 1980s have consolidated into 14 major global players. Global supply chains are usually comprised of levels. The first is the prime contractor which has a supply chain consisting of sub-assembly suppliers and component suppliers. Participants in global supply chains are highly specialised in production, and require strong innovation capabilities to retain their competitive edge, and strong relationships and networks to remain relevant to the supply chain. Implications for Australia - In general, Australia and Victoria will need to concentrate on developing new and advanced products through research and development, and specialise in niche production and services like design and engineering as opposed to routine labour. It should also be noted that recent authors have stressed that China is using its dominant market power and looking at fulfilling all niches in the global value chain, at the high and low end, and in between. Australia has a relatively skilled but high cost labour force in an international context. Australias future role is focused on developing new and advanced products (eg. research and innovation) and specialisation in niche services (eg. design and engineering). Jobs growth in Australian business and manufacturing is likely to be focused in high skilled processes as opposed to routine process work. Rise of Advanced Business Services - In the globalised and unbundled production environment, companies need access to the best advice on where to make cost savings and how to enhance customer value through improved product content, design, packaging and delivery. Consequently, advanced business services (eg. financial brokerage, legal advisors, business analysts, management consultants, IT engineers, advertising agents, public relations consultants) have emerged as a crucial corporate input. Advanced business services are also important to regional prosperity because they are key exporters in their own right, and help retain export income within regional economies. The Innovation Imperative - Ongoing improvement and innovation is required for businesses to maintain competitive advantage in an international context. Innovation within established sectors is likely to lead to more efficient production processes and fewer jobs. Innovation in new product lines is likely to lead to creation of new jobs and activities. The six core features of an innovation economy include: A strong global outlook; Ability to generate and use knowledge; Strong linkages and networks at home; Sustained performance in starting and nurturing businesses; Well educated and skilled workforce; and World class infrastructure.

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Growth of Logistics - Logistics is often outsourced to external suppliers who specialise in the field. Improvements in Information and Communications Technology have led to enhanced Just in Time (JIT) inventory systems, which reduce warehousing costs for manufacturers who electronically order new stocks from suppliers when they reach a certain level. Highly efficient transport and logistics specialists then deliver the required components within the required timeframe. The large and growing importation of goods that are produced offshore is a major driver in the logistics sector. Many products are shipped and transported to major distribution facilities and then distributed across the nation via a network of smaller facilities serving defined regions. Many white collar jobs have been created by the logistics sector due to the need to manage and drive change in increasingly complex global logistics networks. Intra-Metropolitan Specialisations - Metropolitan Melbournes internal industrial landscape has changed to reflect the global drivers of change. This has forged precincts of specialisation in a metropolitan context which includes a few core manufacturing exporter regions (in the south east, west and north), transport & logistics regions (in the inner, west and south east), technology precincts near areas of high skills concentration and major institutions such as in inner Melbourne and the middle south east region.

2.2

Other Factors Impacting on Business and Industry

Demographic trends and climate change are issues which could have significant impacts on the way business and industrial areas develop in the future. Changing Demography - It is expected that an ageing population will cause further tightening of the domestic labour market, particularly for skilled labour. Should this occur, the Yarra economy will require even greater integration with the CBD economy to ensure it can draw on the advanced skill sets in the inner region. Climate Change - The release of the Stern Review in October 2006 provided an economic analysis of the possible impacts of global warming, highlighting the economic dangers of business-as-usual greenhouse emissions. The implications for business include the need to increase resource efficiency to reduce greenhouse emissions and take account of the growing scarcity of water, which is likely to be exacerbated as temperatures rise. Under an emissions trading system, it is anticipated that manufacturers will face the biggest adjustments, challenged by increased energy prices and the shift by consumers to less carbon intensive technologies. These pressures present opportunities for companies to move into environmentally sustainable operations and develop new technologies and processes. The changes required to adapt to climate change may provide new commercial opportunities for businesses. This potential will only be realised with major investment in the development of

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innovation and new technologies that are focused on emission-efficient production such as energy generation tools (eg. solar panels and biofuels). Research conducted in the UK by Shell Springboard identified major commercial opportunities for local businesses and small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) because of growth in demand for environmentally friendly goods and the impact created by government action to tackle climate change1. This includes: Building regulations for residential, commercial and industrial uses; Renewable electricity; Renewable road transport fuels; and Domestic energy efficiency.

Exchange Rates A high Australian dollar makes importation of goods more cost effective to domestic consumers and export of domestic goods more costly for overseas buyers, implying that competitive pressures are high for Australian manufacturers. This will further pressure Australian manufacturers and necessitate a continuing focus on innovation and quality. It will also facilitate greater demand for imported goods and related logistics facilities and infrastructure.

2.3

Influence of Agglomeration Economies

Table 1 highlights the level of employment growth expected to locate in the inner region of Melbourne over the next 30 years. This data has been drawn from the analysis conducted by SGS on future employment patterns in Melbourne. The projections have been based on detailed analysis of industry employment patterns, labour force characteristics, demographic changes, land use constraints and a range of other issues including known government policy. The analysis highlights that an extra 180,000 jobs will locate in inner Melbourne over the next 25 years. This section provides some analysis of why employment would choose to locate in a particular area in inner Melbourne. These projections are based on the 2006 ABS Census Labour Force Survey for Australia. These national projections have then been adjusted for each State and then scaled down to the Melbourne SD and LGA levels. Trends are informed by State level data in relation to economic composition.

Table 1: Inner Melbourne Employment Projections, (000)


Region Inner Melbourne Melbourne SD 2006 499 1,889 2011 522 2,002 2016 567 2,192 2021 610 2,338 2026 644 2,458 2031 678 2,583 AAGR 1.2% 1.3%

Source: SGS Economics & Planning

The location of the City of Yarra within the inner region places it at a competitive edge over other municipalities. This can be measured by what is known as Effective Job Density (EJD). The EJD for inner Melbourne is presented in Figure 2.

Findings based on a 2006 research commissioned by Shell Springboard

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Unlike a measure such as employment density of an area, EJD incorporates both proximity2 and the density of employment. That is, a firm located on the fringe of the CBD in a relatively low employment area could potentially capture economic benefits by being located close to the CBD.

Figure 2: Melbourne Effective Job Density

Source: SGS Economics & Planning

A high EJD means that firms can achieve economies of scale via a large customer base. Within that large customer base, the opportunity for economics of scope is presented to firms. That is, with an increased number of clients, firms will be able to specialise in a particular field and hence gain improved efficiencies through specialisation.
2

SGS has drawn the Private Vehicle travel time matrix from Melbourne Integrated Transport Model maintained by the Department of Transport and the public transport travel time matrix is drawn from Metlink.

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A high EJD also provides opportunities for firms to access a deep and diverse pool of skilled labour. With so many firms located together, there will be a high level of technological / knowledge transfer between firms, which will help bolster innovation. This innovation is vital for firms to survive in a very competitive market place. Much of the knowledge transfer is provided by skilled labour moving between firms. The CBD Grid, Southbank and some of the surrounding areas are in the highest EJD decile in Melbourne. The City of Yarra is located in the second highest decile for EJD. This provides the municipality with a competitive advantage over other areas such as Footscray and Hawthorn. That is, all other things being equal, firms would choose to locate in the City of Yarra as they would have greater access to the economic opportunities presented by the large employment concentrations in the CBD. However, even areas with high EJD will not necessarily attract high concentrations of employment. Other factors, such as the broader property market, amenity, private sector and government investment will also help determine the concentrations of employment for an area.

2.4

Agglomeration Benefits for Industries

Research has shown that locations or cities with high job densities translate into higher economic productivity, or value of output per worker. Agglomeration benefits some business types more than others. Agglomeration of businesses in centres or nodes provides some firms with an opportunity to boost productivity through better access to financial and non financial relationships and from having a recognisable address for customer and workers. SGS has measured the relationship between effective job density and productivity. The analysis shows that various service firms and retailers derive a productivity benefit from being located in higher density job agglomerations, whereas, on average, industrial firms can lose productivity by being located in agglomerations. This would most likely relate to various classes of industrial firms needing buffers from sensitive uses for operations and high quality and efficient transport systems. The implications for the City of Yarra are that increasingly, the area will become more sought after as a location for business services and high order employment uses whilst manufacturing continues to decline. The exceptions will be those types of manufacturing which suit an inner region location and can cope with rising congestion and residential interface issues. This will have major implications for business and industrial land use and land allocation. Figure 3 shows the likely productivity benefits of increasing agglomeration (as measured by Effective Job Density). The biggest benefits go to business and cultural services. The biggest costs apply to manufacturing and logistics.

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Figure 3: Estimated Industry Sector Productivity Benefits from Doubling Effective Job Density
0.30 0.29

0.20

0.18 0.11 0.13 0.08 0.01 0.09 0.05 0.01 0.10 0.07 0.07

Elasticities

0.10

0.00 -0.04 -0.10 -0.09

Source: SGS Economics and Planning

2.5

Spatial Implications

This section provides discussion on how these economic forces manifest through spatial development outcomes.

2.5.1

Conventional Industrial Development Typologies

In response to the globalisation of industry and its segmentation into various classes, such as advanced manufacturing, heavy industry, logistics, service industry and the like, industrial planners and developers have moved away for viewing industrial estates as generic products and are instead positioning industrial and business estates to target certain classes of business. A review of contemporary Australian and international industrial development has revealed the following types of industrial precincts. Business Parks - The broad objectives of a business park are to develop a niche and generally higher amenity real estate offer, often featuring environmental features such as an open space network.

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An example of a new format industrial employment precinct being planned for Greater Dandenong is the LOGIS development. This refers to the former Melbourne Water Dandenong Treatment Plant situated approximately 2 kilometres (km) south of the Dandenong Transit City. It is anticipated that LOGIS will be a large scale business park, targeting advanced manufacturers and logistics users. The development is expected to generate 3,000 jobs for the Dandenong area. Conventional Industrial Estates Conventional industrial estates provide basic standards of infrastructure and amenity and configure lot sizes to meet market needs. Mixed Use Precincts - The broad objectives are to develop an integrated mixed-use master-planned real estate product potentially combining residential development with a town centre and a business park. An example is the University Hill development in Bundoora (Melbourne). Located adjacent to RMITs Bundoora campus and the metropolitan ring road, approximately 20 kilometres to the north-east of Melbournes CBD, University Hill is a $1 billion development by the MAB Corporation. University Hill incorporates residential, town centre retail and services and employment precincts all within a network of green spaces incorporating wetlands and eucalypts. Covering an area of 23 hectares (ha), the business park component will provide over 3,000 jobs upon completion. To date, 18,000 sqm of office floorspace, 33,000 sqm of warehouse / high tech-manufacturing and 3,000 sqm of other floorspace (child care centre and showroom) are under construction. The precinct also contains a three-level office building which will provide accommodation for up to 30 businesses, with a range of differing suite sizes offering flexible floorspace for small businesses and start-ups. Logistics Estates These are large lot estates geared for logistic firms, usually located on flat land near major transport infrastructure. The design and amenity is usually conventional. Science and Technology Parks These are business parks usually associated with a university or research institute and provide a real estate outlet for commercialisation of research. Science and Technology Parks can resemble business parks but usually have a particular business development objective. The critical success factor tends to be the people that drive the research and business development. There are many examples of bold visions of Science and Technology Parks which have fallen by the wayside as trends change and the economy evolves, with Adelaides Multi Function Polis (MFP) one such scheme which was never realised. However, Sophia Antipolis, in Southern France, is a successful example of a technology park which was established in 1970 and remains successful today.

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2.5.2

Conventional Office Development Typologies

A review of contemporary Australian and international office development has revealed the following types of office developments. Home Office or Low Rent Offices / Shop-fronts - Micro and small businesses, especially new start-ups, are establishing across the urban landscape in home offices, low rent offices and shop fronts in the suburbs and in regional centres. People that establish companies in fields like design, marketing, software development, health and consultancy advice drive this activity. As businesses grow, and especially as new staff are added, many firms will seek to move from the home office to a conventional office in their local area. Small firms in such a growth trajectory will be wary of risks associated with long-term leases and high rents, many having paid no rent in the home office. The first move into the commercial office market will therefore be a cautious step to relatively cheap accommodation until the business model can sustain higher rents. The target is therefore low-grade office space and residual shop fronts. In the outer suburbs however, such space is not as common which is a constraint to business evolution. Office Tower Many large firms will seek out a CBD style office tower setting for their office premises. Such locations offer benefits in terms of: co-location with other firms / organisations (providing agglomeration benefits) and activities that offer a wide range of services (including lifestyle services); the opportunity for face-to-face business contact; quality information and communications infrastructure; and good accessibility by multimodal transport systems (including road and radial public transport services). Some firms will seek a suburban activity centre environment for their office premises. Such locations offer many of the benefits of a CBD location, but on a smaller scale. Campus Office - Some firms favour campus style accommodation. This refers to buildings on large sites, high quality detached buildings with large floorplates and superior landscaping (perhaps in conjunction with recreation facilities and cafes). High profile street frontages are desired for the corporate address. This segment of the commercial office market tends to differ from the CBD / activity centre office market because sites and facilities of this nature are difficult to find in traditional activity centres. Organisations that favour this type of accommodation tend to look for out-of-centre sites, much like the freestanding shopping centre. However, in a Melbourne context, the CBD linked Docklands has been highly successful at targeting the emergent demand for large floorplate, campus offices for premium tenants. The Botanica Office Park on Swan Street, Richmond is another example.

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2.5.3

Restricted Retail and Bulk y Goods Precincts

Restricted Retail Premises in the Victoria Planning Provisions (VPP) is defined as Land used to sell or hire: a) automotive parts and accessories; b) camping equipment; c) electric light fittings; d) equestrian supplies; e) floor and window coverings; f) furniture, bedding, furnishings, fabric and manchester; g) household appliances, household electrical goods and home entertainment goods; h) party supplies; i) swimming pools; or j) office equipment and supplies. These uses are more generally referred to as bulky goods retail. A further description of the uses is provided by the Bulky Goods Retailers Association, which defines bulky goods as large items in terms of size, shape and weight. The retailers generally sell homemaker products including furniture, electrical, furnishings, bedding, building materials, household fixtures, and fittings ... Examples of bulky goods store brands include Freedom Furniture, Beacon Lighting, Spotlight, Supercheap Auto, The Good Guys, Fantastic Furniture, Barbeques Galore, Harvey Norman, Forty Winks, OZ Design Furniture and Bunnings. A showroom is a type of building that accommodates a number of the above-mentioned land uses. Showrooms typically have glazed frontages to enable customers to view products on display, such as furniture, motor vehicles and related products. Showrooms can provide a high amenity frontage to streets if designed well. The success of a restricted retail / showroom precinct relates to its access, exposure, agglomeration and integration attributes (assuming a sufficient catchment is in place to support the centre). These attributes are explained as follows. Accessibility - The accessibility of a precinct to its regional catchment is a critical success factor. A highly accessible precinct is usually located on a major road or highway and near the junction of other major roads. multiple directions. Exposure Related to the above point, businesses that establish in restricted retail / showroom precincts benefit from being located on the main road frontage due to the exposure it provides to its regional catchment base. Businesses are able to be better recognised and patronised by being in a visible location. Agglomeration A critical mass of restricted retail / showroom businesses adds to the gravity of the precinct by expanding its catchment and catchment penetration. Customers are drawn to precincts with a large number of similar businesses due to the comparison shopping benefits a large and consolidated precinct can offer. Integration Agglomeration benefits can be enhanced or diminished by the level of linkage and integration between businesses in the precinct. Ideally, precincts should offer the capacity for customers to park in zones and walk to numerous businesses without having to drive to each business. The optimal access system for a restricted retail / showroom precinct is a radial road network that connects the precinct with its catchment in

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In short, successful restricted retail / showroom precincts are attractive to their large catchments because of their comparison offer and ease of access to and within precincts. The State Governments Retail Policy Review Discussion Paper proposes to exclude Restricted Retail (or bulky goods) from industrial zones, meaning that land specifically zoned for the purpose would need to be provided. Following the election of the Baillieu Government, the current status of this policy is uncertain. Restricted Retail and Bulky Goods retailing is a feature of selected precincts within Yarra particularly along Church Street and parts of Swan Street. Victoria Gardens also includes restricted retail and bulky goods components.

2.6

Yarras Economic Profile

This section profiles the population and economy of Yarra for the purpose of identifying a demand profile for business and industrial land.

2.6.1

Population Growth and Projections

Table 2 shows historical population growth in the Yarra SLA, LGA, the inner region and Melbourne SD. Yarra saw population growth of 0.9%p.a. between 1996 and 2006. This was lower than the other comparison LGAs and regions except Stonnington. The Yarra North SLA accounted for the greatest share of Yarras population and the greatest increase in absolute terms. The 2010 estimated resident population for Yarra was 79,540, an increase of 6,000 since 2006.

Table 2: Historical Population Growth, Inner Region, 1996 2006


SLA/LGA Name Yarra (C) - North Yarra (C) - Richmond Yarra (C) Melbourne Port Phillip Stonnington Inner Melbourne Melbourne SD 1996 43,499 23,637 67,136 39,716 76,089 88,562 271,503 3,283,278 2001 44,424 24,523 68,947 50,673 80,552 89,978 290,150 3,471,625 2006 47,402 26,146 73,548 75,995 90,553 95,011 335,107 3,743,015 Change 3,903 2,509 6,412 36,279 14,464 6,449 63,604 459,737 AAGR 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 6.7% 1.8% 0.7% 2.1% 1.3%

Source: Estimated Resident Population

Table 3 shows the Victoria in Future 2008 Population Projections for Yarra SLAs, LGA, the inner region and the Melbourne SD. The population of Yarra is expected to grow by 14,700 (+0.9% p.a.) to 2026. The majority of the population increase is expected to be accommodated in the Yarra North SLA which is expected to grow by 1.1% p.a.

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Table 3: Population Projections, Inner Region, 2006 2026


SLA/LGA Name Yarra (C) - North Yarra (C) - Richmond Yarra (C) Melbourne (C) Stonnington (C) Port Phillip (C) Inner Melbourne Melbourne SD Source: VIF 2008 Note: Discrepancy exists between Table 2 and 3. 2006 population in Table 3 is a projection 2006 47,280 26,221 73,501 81,478 95,235 90,458 340,672 3,744,373 2011 50,376 27,223 77,598 101,786 99,267 97,515 376,166 4,082,871 2016 52,932 28,103 81,034 124,291 103,096 104,364 412,785 4,396,918 2021 55,730 28,856 84,586 145,034 107,196 111,409 448,225 4,704,719 2026 58,411 29,820 88,231 164,781 111,501 118,616 483,129 5,000,048 Change 11,131 3,599 14,730 83,303 16,266 28,158 142,457 1,255,675 AAGR 1.1% 0.6% 0.9% 3.6% 0.8% 1.4% 1.8% 1.5%

The Yarra population growth rate is less than that of the inner Melbourne region (+1.8% p.a.) including the Melbourne LGA (+3.6% p.a.) and Port Phillip (+1.4% p.a.). Stonnington is expected to grow by 0.8% p.a. The LGA is also expected to grow at a slower rate than the Melbourne SD (+1.5% p.a.). Independent population projections for Yarra suggest that the population will increase by 24,300, from 73,550 to 97,850 to 2026. This is an annual growth rate of 1.4% p.a. This is higher than the Victoria in Future Population Projections 2008 growth rate for Yarra of 0.9% p.a.

Table 4: Population Projections, Yarra, 2006 2026


SLA/LGA Name Yarra (C) Source: id Consulting 2006 73,548 2011 78,593 2016 84,908 2021 91,625 2026 97,856 Change 24,308 AAGR 1.4%

The composition of the population is expected to be predominantly mid-working age with the annual growth rate in the 45-64 year age group in Yarra (+2.0% p.a.) being higher than both the inner region (+1.8% p.a.) and the Melbourne SD (+1.4% p.a.). The 25-44 year age group is expected to grow in inner Melbourne by 1.3% p.a. which is higher than the growth rate expected in this age group in the Yarra LGA (+0.7% p.a.) and the Melbourne SD (+1.2% p.a.). This is shown in the table overleaf.

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Table 5: Population Projections by Age Group, Inner Region, 2006 2026


Region Yarra Age Group 0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Inner Melbourne 0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Melbourne 0-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+ Source: VIF 2008 2006 8,029 10,306 33,643 14,566 6,957 2011 7,923 9,460 36,533 15,968 5,282 2016 7,881 8,720 37,842 17,426 9,165 2021 7,556 8,559 38,420 19,518 10,533 2026 7,378 8,314 38,968 21,547 12,023 Change -651 -1,992 5,325 6,981 5,066 8,969 595 47,855 32,627 25,182 180,215 69,379 317,233 294,766 394,081 AAGR -0.4% -1.1% 0.7% 2.0% 2.8% 1.2% 0.0% 1.3% 1.8% 2.8% 1.2% 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 3.1%

34,609 60,395 162,484 75,790 34,622

36,774 62,687 181,709 84,443 38,431

39,659 61,905 181,709 84,443 45,070

41,754 61,197 197,767 95,499 52,008

43,578 60,990 210,340 108,417 59,804

693,619 540,285 1,157,264 884,574 468,631

737,271 567,459 1,252,319 986,082 539,740

788,047 569,180 1,335,015 1,062,032 642,644

840,541 576,571 1,411,358 1,128,871 747,378

873,834 609,664 1,474,497 1,179,340 862,712

2.6.2

SEIFA Profile

Figure 4 shows the Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) profile of Yarra in 2006 at Census Collection District (CCDs) level. The figure shows the pockets of disadvantage which exist across Yarra, particularly in the vicinity of Victoria Street and between Hoddle Street and Smith Street and in the southern part of Brunswick Street. Areas of lower advantage can also be seen around the Business 3 Zone precincts near Johnston Street and Smith Street and around the Industrial 1 and 3 Zone north of Bridge Road (east of the municipality). However, it is becoming apparent that Yarras business and industrial areas are increasingly being locked in by an increasingly affluent and skilled population of higher advantage. This is evident in the Gipps Precinct and around some of the industrial areas along the Yarra River. This suggests that the traditionally low amenity nature of inner city industrial areas is changing and that populations are increasingly seeking an inner city location irrespective of proximity to industrial zones and other employment precincts. In all, the CCDs north of Alexandra Parade generally have higher advantage whilst this profile is more disparate in the middle and southern parts of the municipality.

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Figure 4: SEIFA, City of Yarra, 2006

Source: ABS SEIFA, SGS Economics and Planning

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2.6.3

W orkforce Skills and Qualifications

Figure 5 illustrates the proportion of residents by qualification type. In 2006, Yarra exceeded the proportions of Inner Melbourne and the Melbourne SD in all advanced qualification types including postgraduate degrees, graduate diploma and graduate certificate and bachelor degrees. Conversely, Yarra had a lower proportion of residents in advanced diplomas and diplomas and an equal proportion of certificate level qualifications to the inner Melbourne region.

Figure 5: Workforce Skills and Qualifications, Yarra City, Inner Melbourne, Melbourne SD, 2006
60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0% Postgraduate Degree Graduate Diploma Bachelor Degree Advanced Diploma and Graduate and Diploma Certificate Yarra
Source: ABS Census

Certificate

Inner Melbourne

Melbourne SD

The Yarra community is improving its capacity in high order skills with persons with postgraduate degrees increasing to 4,400 in 2006. Bachelor degrees have also increased substantially with an additional 5,400 Bachelor degrees since 1996. Graduate Diplomas, advanced diplomas and Certificates have increased marginally since 1996.

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Figure 6: Workforce Skills and Qualifications, Yarra City, 1996 2006


18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000
0

Postgraduate Degree

Graduate Diploma and Graduate Certificate 1996

Bachelor Degree

Advanced Diploma and Diploma

Certificate

2001

2006

Source: ABS Census

Figure 7 overleaf shows the percentage of Graduate and Postgraduate population accessible within 30 minutes drive for the Melbourne SD in 2011. A thirty minute drive is considered to be the distance at which travel patterns begin to impact on urban development patterns. Whilst public transport is also a factor in driving urban form, its lesser coverage, radial nature and reliance on walking as the dominant supporting mode of travel means that access to skills and jobs is far less than that which is accessible from a vehicle. Yarra is well placed in being able to draw on a diverse range of graduate and postgraduate skills given the access which Yarra has to the inner and eastern suburbs. This is shown in greater detail in Figure 7 which is a focus map for Yarra. The inner and eastern regions provide access to around 50-60% of all graduate and postgraduate skills in Melbourne with the greatest concentrations around population and tertiary education centres in Monash, Parkville and around Deakin University in Box Hill.

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Figure 7: % of Graduate and Postgraduate Population Accessible Within 30 Minutes Drive, Melbourne SD, 2011

Source: SGS Economics and Planning

Figure 8 shows a focus map (of the above) for Yarra. This can be directly related to the findings of Figures 15 and 17 which show Yarra retaining high quality access to manufacturing and logistics employment. This is reflected in the local skills base which, whilst evolving, retains a strong blue collar emphasis.

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