Tm lc Th trng Vin Thng Chu Thi Bnh Dng

Commissioned by:

Tm lc Th trng Vin Thng Chu Thi Bnh Dng

Ngi Son Tho Bn Tm lc Th trng:

Gii thiu
Khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng l khu vc nng ng nht trn th gii c v mt i mi cng ngh vin thng ln pht trin th trng. u nm m c thm nhp di ng ca khu vc vn ng m c di 60% trong khi ton b m c thm nhp bng thng rng ch m c 5% nh vy vn s c pht trin th trng ng k n t cc th trng mi ni nhTrung Quc,n ,IndonesiavVit Nam.Tuy nhin, Khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng rt c bit v cc th trng pht trin nht trn th gii nhNht Bn,Hn Quc, Hng Kng v Singaporel cc nc ang i din vi nguy c bo ha th trng v ang chn s dng cc cng ngh khng dy v c dy tin tin nhm c gng s dng tc ng xung (downlink) nhanh hn cung cp cc dch v mi cho khch hng. C cc th trng mi ni v pht trin u c chung nhiu vn ging nhau lin quan ti vic xc nh cch tt nht trin khai mng th h tip theo nhm ti a ha cc c hi thu li nhun ng thi ti thiu ha chi ph.Trong bn tm lc th trng ny, Frost & Sullivan tm cch xc nh cc xu hng chnh trong th trng vin thng ca khu vc c bit lin quan ti:

Cc xu hng bng thng rng di ng Cc xu hng bng thng rng cp quang Cc xu hng mng vn chuyn gi tin

Phn 1:Cc Xu hng Bng thng rngDi ng

Vic chn s dng dch v di ng tng nhanh cc th trng mi ni v hin ang tng ng vi cc th trng pht trin nht.

Mc d vn tn ti mt vi khong cch gia cc th trng mi ni v cc th trng pht trin, vo cui nm 2010 12 trong s 18 th trng khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng s c m c thm nhp th SIM di ng trn 100%. S o ny nhn mnh tm quan trng m bng thng rng di ng s c v phng din pht trin li nhun v hoch nh mng li trong tng lai ca cc hng. Biu 1 1: M c Thm nhp Di ng Chu Thi Bnh dng theo Quc gia cui 2010

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Mobile Penetration Rate (%)

T l Xm nhp Di ng(%)

Dch v bng thng rng di ng cng ang nhanh chng pht trin tt c cc th trng, mc d vn cn hn ch hu ht cc th trng mi ni.

Vo cui nm 2010 khong 12 phn trm tt c cc thu bao di ng khu vc Chu Thi Bnh dng s s dng dch v 3G nhng nh ta thy trong biu di y c s chnh lch ln cc dng thu bao Mt s th trng nhNht Bn
3

Bangladesh

Cam-Pu-Chia

Pakistan

Trung Quc

Sri Lanka

Nht Bn

Indonesia

Philippines

Hn Quc

Thi Lan

Malaysia

i Loan

New Zealand

Uc

Singapore

Ngun:Frost & Sullivan.

Hng Kng

Vit Nam

v Hn Quc s c phn ln thu bao s dng chun 3G vo cui nm tuy cc th trng mi ni ch t 15 phn trm tr xung; con s ny ang tng nhanh chng tt c cc th trng. Biu 1 2: M c Thm nhp Ngi dng 3G Chu Thi Bnh Dng cui 2010

100%
100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 0% 10%

3G Penetration Rate (%) 3G Penetration Rate (%)

Vic gia tng s dng smartphone in thoi thng minh) v dch v bng thng rng di ng tr trc s l ng l c ch nh cho doanh thu tru liu trong tng lai cc th trng mi ni. n d

Cc nh mng mt vi th trng Chu c trn 90 phn trm thu bao ca h s dng dch v tr trc. iu ny gy kh khn cho cc nh mng trong vic khuyn mi cho thit b cm tay, do vy vic s dng smartphone b hn ch nhiu th trng. Tuy nhin, s trn vo ca cc smartphone c v r hn khin cc nh mng nhiu th trng Chu nh Philippin Indonesia v Thi Lan cung cp cc k hoch Internet di ng theo ngy ch vi 0 20 USD m i ngy Cc chin dch ny gt hi c cc kt qu quan trng v s l ng lc ch nh cho giao thng mng Internet di ng pht trin

T l Xm nhp 3G(%)

Pakistan Pakistan Bangladesh Bangladesh

Thailand Lan Thi India n

China Trung Quc Cambodia Cam-Pu-Chia

Philippines Philipin

Vietnam Nam Vit

Sri LankaLanka Sri

Indonesia Indonesia

Malaysia Malaysia

Hong Kong Kng Hng

New Zealand New Zealand

Singapore Singapore

Taiwan Loan i

Australia Uc

Korea South Hn Quc

JapanNht Bn

0%

Ngun:Frost & Sullivan.

Biu 1.3: Cung cp Dch v Truyn thng Thng minh Tr trc ca Blackberry, 2010

Ngun:Truyn thng Thng minh.

Trong khi mng 3G ang c cc bc tin ng k th trng di ng Chu Thi Bnh Dng, cc nh khai thc mng sn sng chun b cho cc dch v LTE thng mi.

Nhn thy nhu cu tc ca ng xung di ng ang tng cc nh khai thc mng trn ton khu vc trin khai cc mng LTE. Thng 8 nm 2010 mi trong s mi tm th trng khu vc cng b th nghim LTE v cc dch v thng mi s bt u ti Nht Bn vo cui nm 2010 v dch v LTE s c hu ht cc quc gia khc vo nm 2013 Biu 1 4:Tnh hnh Trin khai LTE Chu Thi Bnh Dng 2010 Th trng Nh mng Tnh hnh LTE c Telstra Bt u d ng th vo thng 5 nm 2010 Optus Bt u d ng th vo thng 7 nm 2010 Trung China Bt u d ng th (TDD) vo Thng 4 nm Quc Mobile 2010 China cam kt chuyn i t CDMA sang LTE Telecom vo nm 2010 Hng Kng People's c Cp Giy php vo nm 2009 Genius Brand c Cp Giy php vo nm 2009 c Cp Giy php vo nm 2009 cc cuc th nghim bt u vo thng 3 nm CSL 2010 NTT Pht hnh phin bn thng mi c Nht Bn DoCoMo hoch nh l vo Thng 12 nm 2010 Pht hnh phin bn thng mi c SoftBank hoch nh vo nm 2011
5

KDDI SoftBank Maxis Smart Globe Telecom SingTel StarHub M1 SK Telecom KT LG U+ i Loan Vit Nam Chungwha FPT

Malaysia Philippines

Pht hnh phin bn thng mi c hoch nh vo nm 2011 Pht hnh phin bn thng mi c hoch nh vo nm 2011 Bt u d ng th vo thng 6 nm 2010 Bt u d ng th vo thng 8 nm 2010 Bt u dng th vo thng 8 nm 2010 Bt u dng th vo thng 6 nm 2010 Bt u dng th vo thng 6 nm 2011 Bt u dng th vo thng 6 nm 2012 Pht hnh phin bn thng mi c hoch nh vo nm 2011 Pht hnh phin bn thng mi c hoch nh vo nm 2011 Phm vi ph sng trn ton quc vo nm 2013 Pht hnh phin bn thng mi c hoch nh vo nm 2012 c cp giy php dng th vo Thng 7 nm 2010

Singapore

Hn Quc

Ngun:Frost & Sullivan.

H thng G s dnh thi gian pht trin trong khu v c, nhng s c s chuyn hng ln sang vic s dng Internet di ng trong tng lai.

Vo cui nm 2010 ch 29 phn trm thu bao di ng ca khu vc d kin s s dng dch v Internet di ng v phn ln nhng ngi dng ny vn l Nht Bn v Hn Quc. Tuy nhin vo nm 2015 chng ti c tnh tng s ny s t 57 phn trm trong tt c ngi d ng di ng trong khu vc do nhu cu tr trc rt ln cc th trng mi ni ny thc y

Biu 1 5: S Thu bao Di ng Chu Thi Bnh dng theo Th h Cng ngh 2005- cui 2015

Total Mobile Subscribers (000s)

Phn 2: Cc Xu hng Bng thng rng Cp quang

C s h tng bng thng rng ng dy c nh vn c n hn ch cc th trng mi ni ca Chu Thi Bnh Dng.

Khng ging nh dch v di ng, vn c s chnh lch rt ln gia cc th trng mi ni v cc th trng pht trin v m c thm nhp bng thng rng ng dy c nh. Theo biu di y mt vi th trng nh n v Indonesia c di 5% tt c s h gia nh kt ni mng Internet qua bng thng rng trong khi cc h gia nh khc nh Hn Quc v Hng Kng gn nh mi gia nh u kt ni Internet.

Tng s Thu bao Di ng

5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

4G 3G 2.5G 2G

Ngun:Frost & Sullivan.

Biu 2 1: M c Thm nhp Bng thng rng Chu Thi Bnh dng theo Quc gia cui 2010
T l Xm nhp Mng c nh Gia nh %

Fixed Household Penetration Rate (%)

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Cng ngh truy cp FTT

phng tin tru cp quan trng ang tng trong khu v c.

Hot ng truy cp bng thng rng FTTx ang pht trin nhanh nht trong khu vc v c thc y bi vic trin khai c th trng mi ni v th trng pht trin dn u. cc th trng pht trin nh Nht Bn v Hn Quc cc nh mng ang m rng c s h tng FTTx ti cc thnh ph loi hai v loi ba nhng cng c mt xu hng quan trng cc th trng mi ni T nh kinh t ca vic trin khai c s h tng PSTN mi tr nn khng kinh t hu ht cc th trng v do ngay c cc th trng mi ni nh n v Trung Quc cng ang chuyn dch sang dch v FTTx. Do vy, chng ti d tnh rng khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng s tip tc dn u th gii v vic trin khai FTTx v s t 100 triu kt ni vo nm 2015 tng so vi tng s 40 triu kt ni hin ang s dng.

In d Th ia ai Ph lan d ilip pi ne s Vi et na m M al ay sia Ch in a Au st ra lia Ta iw an Ja Ne pa w n Ze al Si and ng ap or Ho ng e So Ko ng ut h Ko re a

Pa kis ta n In do ne sia

Ngun: Frost & Sullivan.

Cp

uang n

i Ni s ni ln nh mt

Biu 2 2: S Thu bao Bng thng rng Chu Thi Bnh dng theo Cng ngh 2005- cui 2015
Total Broadband Subscribers (000s)
Tng s Thu bao Bng thng rng(000s)

350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 XDSL FTTx Cable Modem Others
Ngun:Frost & Sullivan.

Trong Khu v c Chu Thi Bnh Dng, cng ngh G trin v vic trin khai FTTx.

N ang trn pht

EPON tng l tiu chun la chn ca FTTx trong khu vc c th trng Hn Quc v Nht Bn trong thi gian di. Tuy nhin vo nm ngoi cng c chuyn hng u tin i vi cng ngh GPON. Di y l danh sch cc nh mng cam kt trin khai GPON khu vc Chu Thi Bnh dng trong mi tm thng qua:

Maxis nh cung cp dch v di ng ch nh hin nay Malaysia BSNL nh cung cp dch v c nh ch nh hin nay ca n Chunghwa Telecom nh mng ln nht ca i Loan Mng Bng thng rng Quc gia ca Chnh ph Singapore Hong Kong Broadband Network, nh mng FTTx ln nht ca Hng Kng China Unicom v China Telecom hai hng dch v c nh ln nht ca Trung Quc Mng c nh greenfieldca China Mobile Mng Bng thng rng Quc gia ca Chnh ph Uc N, l ng l c cho

Cng ngh GPON c mt vi li th quan trng so vi E u hng chn s dng G N gn .

D thc t l EPON c lp t nhiu hn GPON cc hng ang tng cng chn GPON khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng v chng ti tin rng cc l do sau y ang tc ng ti cc hng trong khu vc khi chn s dng cng ngh: Nhu cu h tr cc dch v k tha Phn ln cc th trng mi ni trong khu vc nh Trung Quc, n v hu ht ng Nam vn kinh doanh dch v c nh k tha rt quan trng qua mng vn chuyn d liu TDM.GPON hiu qu hn v truyn d liu c c vi giao th c chuyn mch (circuit- switched) v chuyn gi (packet switched ) ng thi G N c thit k h tr DN Nhm C- Khng nh cng ngh

EPON, GPON c th thch ng ODN Nhm C cn EPON ch cho php Nhm A v B. Nhm C cho php s thit b u cui ng cp quang trin khai bn trong im cui mng cp quang c cao hn do vy gim s si cp quang cn b tr. GPON c th thch ng tt hn vi cc m hnh tiu th Internet th c t Cng ngh EPON c cu hnh cung cp tc ti ln (upstream rate) l 1 25 Gbp trong khi GPON c tc theo thang 155 Mbp 622 Gbp hoc 1 25 Gbp c xem l lu lng d liu ti xung ln hn nhiu so vi lu lng d liu ti ln, GPON cho php cc nh mng cung cp nhiu dch v s dng nhiu ng xung (downlink) hn v trnh phi tr chi ph khng cn thit khi cung cp dch v ti ln 1 25 Gbp Do , v cn bn h vng G N s tip tc pht trin mnh trong tng lai.

EPON vn l phng th c truy cp qua cp quang ph bin nht hin nay chim gn 70 phn trm ng cp quang trong khu vc. Tuy nhin, EPON b hn ch nhiu cc th trng Nht Bn v Hn Quc trong khi hu ht cc th trng khc trong khu vc u chn s dng GPON c bit l cc th trng Trung Quc .Do chng ti tin rng GPON s ni ln nh chun cp quang ph bin nht trong khu vc, v d kin rng vo nm 2015 s thu bao GPON s chim 64 phn trm trong ton b khu vc.

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Biu 2 3: D bo lng thu bao EPON so vi GPON t 2008 n cui 2015

Total FTTx Subscribers (000s)

rng(000s)

Tng s Thu bao Bng thng

Tng s Thu bao FTTx (000s)

120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2008

2009

2010

2011 EPON

2012 GPON

2013

2014

2015

Ngun:Frost & Sullivan.

Do vy, chng ti tin rng cng ngh GPON l l a chn tt nhin ca cc nh mng ti khu v c trong thi gian ti.

Theo s liu thng k bng thng rng khu vc c trnh by on u ca phn ny, cc nh mng trong khu vc s vn cn trin khai s lng ln c s h tng c nh p ng cc nhu cu ca ngi d ng trong tng lai Chng ti tin rng

GPON s l cng ngh c la chn i vi cc nh mng trong thi gian ti. Vi nhu cu sp ti tng cao c mng c nh v di ng, cc nh mng cn cung cp thm cc dch v cng s dng nhiu bng thng rng hn v ch ring chi ph s dng cp ng theo biu di y cng khin mng k tha ngy cng tr nn t hp dn.

11

Biu 2 4: Gi Sn S dng Cp ng trong nm nm Thng 10 nm 2005 ti Thng 9 nm 2010

Ngun: kitco.com.

Phn 3: Cc Xu hng Mng Vn chuyn Gi tin

Mng Vn chuyn Gi tin s cn to i u kin cho vic gii thiu cc dch v s dng giao thc Internet I .

Vic gia tng t FTTx v pha mng c dy v LTE v ph a mng khng dy s cho ra i mt s lng ln cc dch v mi s dng giao th c Internet nh in thoi Internet (IP telephony) Ti Vi Internet (IPTV) v Phim trc tuyn c nt cao (HD).Nhu cu phi t hiu qu cao hn i lin vi cc dch v IP mi v nhu cu tip tc cung cp cc dch v k tha khin cc nh mng phi trin khai mng vn chuyn gi tin p ng nhu cu ny S di y cung cp khung l thuyt cho mng vn chuyn gi tin ca NTT Communications.

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Biu 3.1: S Mng Vn chuyn Gi tin

Ngun:NTT Communications.

Mng Vn chuyn Gi tin s c th a cc nh khai thc mng vo k nguyn giao tip hon ton bng IP.

Mng Vn chuyn Gi tin s a cc nh khai thc mng vo mt k nguyn m mi vn chuyn c qun l bi mt mng c IP. Tuy nhin iu ny s khng phi l mt s chuyn dch t ngt v hu ht cc nh khai thc mng vn c mt lu lng ln nu khng pht trin lu lng chuyn mch. Do hu ht cc nh khai thc mng thc hin cch th c tip cn theo giai on i vi cc mng IP nh c biu th s bn di.

13

Biu 3.1: S Pht trin Mng Vn chuyn

Qu kh
Cc Cng ngh Ngi dng:

Hin ti
Cc Cng ngh Ngi dng: Truy cp Internet <10 Mbps Dch v Di ng 2,5G/3G

Tng lai
Cc Cng ngh Ngi dng: Truy cp Internet <100 Mbps Dch v Di ng 3,5G/4G

Lu lng D liu

Truy cp Internet <1Mbps Dch v Di ng 1G/2G

Cc Cng ngh Mng: SDH WDM

Cc Cng ngh Mng: SDH/NG-SONET GMPLS/ASON

Cc Cng ngh Mng: GMPLS ASON

Mng TDM K tha

Mng IP/TDM Hn Hp

Tt c mng IP

Ngun:Frost & Sullivan.

Cc nh mng vin thng ca Chu Thi Bnh Dng ang tng cng trin khai cc Mng Vn chuyn Gi tin.

Cc nh mng c nh, tch hp v di ng ca Chu ang tng cng trin khai cc Mng Vn chuyn Gi tin x l c lu lng mng ang gia tng x l lu lng mng hin ti c hiu qu hn v thch ng cc dch v mi. Di y l danh sch cc nh mng cam kt trin khai cc Mng Vn chuyn Gi tin khu vc Chu Thi Bnh dng trong mi tm thng qua, hu ht l cc mng MPLS-TP:

SK Telecom - nh cung cp dch v ch nh hin nay ca Hn Quc China Mobile- hng dn u v dch v khng dy ca Trung Quc SoftBank nh khai thc mng tch hp ca Nht Bn Telstra nh cung cp dch v c nh & di ng ch nh hin nay ca Uc Nextgen Networks nh cung cp dch v cp quang ca Uc

Mng Vn chuyn Gi tin s cn phi ti c t gia tng lu lng mng gia cc im tru cp sp ti mt cch hiu qu.

Vic tng t ngi d ng bng thng rng di ng cp cng c ngha l s tng mnh lu lng d liu di ng, v vic ny c nhiu nh mng trong khu vc ch ng kin. V d, ti Hng Kng, d liu trung bnh c tiu th bi ngi
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dng mng Internet di ng tng gp bn ln k t cui nm 2008 ti qu u nm 2010 Hu ht cc mng di ng trong khu vc cn ph thuc nhiu vo cc knh TDM v E1 trong vic truyn d liu gia cc im truy cp di ng (backhaul) nhng cc cng ngh ny khng linh hot nn kh gim chi ph v do vic trin khai cc mng vn chuyn gi tin s l yu t chnh trong vic gim cc ch s o lng chi ph t nh theo bit trong tng lai Biu 3 2: Lu Lng D Liu Internet Di ng hng thng trn m i Ngi dng Hng Kng, t nm 2002 ti thng ba nm 2010

Mobile Data Traffic per User per Month (MB)

Kt lun
Vi khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng dn u v i mi mng vin thng v pht trin thu bao trong tng lai cc la chn cng ngh mng vin thng c thc hin trong khu vc ny rt c l khi cho rng quan trng hn bt k ni no khc T bn tm lc ny chng ti nu bt cc xu hng sau y m chng ti thy l quan trng nht: Cc Xu hng Bng thng rng Di ng: Vic chn s dng 3G cc th trng pht trin ca khu vc nhiu nhng cc th trng mi ni th cn t v ang pht trin Smartphone ang nhanh chng gy tng m c lu lng tiu th trn m i ngi dng v mng LTE c thit lp trin khai trong cc nm ti s to iu kin cho vic chuyn sang s dng cc mng di ng hon ton s dng giao th c Internet (IP). Cc Xu hng d ng Cp quang: Hu ht cc th trng pht trin c m c s
15

trn mi ngi dng (MB)

vn chuyn d liu di ng hng thng

180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

158.1 127.6

38.1 0.2 2002 0.3 1.7 2.5 2005 4.1 2006 11 2007 2008 2009 Mar10

2003 2004

Ngun: OFTA.

dng dch v c nh bng thng rng cao, th nhng c s h tng cho dch v c nh li hu nh cha c ti cc th trng mi ni. Khng cn tnh hung kinh doanh bng cch trin khai cc cng ngh c nh k tha na v cc nh mng c th trng pht trin v th trng mi ni ang tng cng trin khai cp quang. Chng ti tin rng GPON s l cng ngh truy cp chim u th trong khu vc trong thi gian ti. Cc Xu hng Mng Vn chuyn Gi tin Cc nh khai thc mng trong khu vc ang tng cng trin khai cc Mng Vn chuyn Gi tin trong khu vc thch ng vi cc dch v s dng giao th c Internet (IP) mi, hoch nh pht trin lu lng mng vin thng cho tng lai v s dng gii quyt lu lng mng hin ti c hiu qu hn Hu ht cc nh khai thc mng ang thc hin tip cn theo tng giai on i vi cc Mng vn chuyn Gi tin bo v cc dch v k tha ng thi ln k hoch pht trin cho tng lai

V Frost & Sullivan

Frost & Sullivan, Cng ty Hp tc Pht trin gip khch hng tng tc pht trin v t hiu qu tt nht trong v tr xp hng trong nhm v pht trin i mi v kh nng dn u Dch v Hp tc Pht trin ca Cng ty cung cp Gim c iu Hnh (CEO) v i Pht trin ca CEO cc m hnh nghin c u v thc hnh tt nht nhm lp ra nh gi v thc hin cc chin lc pht trin mnh m.Frost & Sullivanc trn 45 nm kinh nghim trong hp tc vi 1000 cng ty Ton cu, cc doanh nghip mi ni v cng ng u t t hn 35 vn phng trn su lc a tham gia Hp tc Pht trin vi chng ti http://www.frost.com. vui lng gh thm

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