Aplic.

A) In vederea realizarii unei aprovizionari optime sa se realizeze previzunea zilnica a vanzarilor pe un orizont de 1 zi utilizand urma
- metoda mediei aritmetice simple
- metoda mediei mobile
- metoda mediei mobile ponderate
- metoda nivelarii exponentiale

Ziua

Vanzari
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42

MAS
4120.00
5020.00
3840.00
5720.00
4960.00
1960.00
3780.00
3620.00
6700.00
3780.00
5340.00
3280.00
4980.00
6220.00
5400.00
5180.00
5280.00
4460.00
2180.00
2560.00
5280.00
4480.00
5820.00
5720.00
8340.00
7080.00
4160.00
2460.00
3440.00
3120.00
3240.00
3560.00
3260.00
4780.00
6400.00
3880.00
5080.00
4760.00
4460.00
7580.00
5740.00
1780.00

4120.00
4570.00
4326.67
4675.00
4732.00
4270.00
4200.00
4127.50
4413.33
4350.00
4440.00
4343.33
4392.31
4522.86
4581.33
4618.75
4657.65
4646.67
4516.84
4419.00
4460.00
4460.91
4520.00
4570.00
4720.80
4811.54
4787.41
4704.29
4660.69
4609.33
4565.16
4533.75
4495.15
4503.53
4557.71
4538.89
4553.51
4558.95
4556.41
4632.00
4659.02

MM

4732.00
4300.00
4052.00
4008.00
4204.00
3968.00
4644.00
4544.00
4816.00
4720.00
5044.00
5012.00
5412.00
5308.00
4500.00
3932.00
3952.00
3792.00
4064.00
4772.00
5928.00
6288.00
6224.00
5552.00
5096.00
4052.00
3284.00
3164.00
3324.00
3592.00
4248.00
4376.00
4680.00
4980.00
4916.00
5152.00
5524.00

MMP

4890.67
3966.67
3793.33
3649.33
4546.67
4405.33
4862.67
4408.00
4553.33
5021.33
5248.00
5293.33
5382.67
5065.33
4022.67
3376.00
3825.33
4001.33
4677.33
5229.33
6418.67
6802.67
6093.33
4838.67
4134.67
3476.00
3205.33
3297.33
3329.33
3814.67
4750.67
4628.00
4862.67
4889.33
4716.00
5604.00
5800.00

NES
4120.00
4141.70
4134.43
4172.66
4191.64
4137.83
4129.20
4116.93
4179.21
4169.58
4197.81
4175.68
4195.07
4243.90
4271.77
4293.67
4317.46
4320.89
4269.27
4228.06
4253.42
4258.88
4296.53
4330.85
4427.52
4491.48
4483.49
4434.69
4410.71
4379.59
4352.11
4333.01
4307.14
4318.54
4368.73
4356.94
4374.38
4383.68
4385.52
4462.54
4493.35

alfa
0.0241125

43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68

1480.00
4600.00
5440.00
5260.00
5060.00
3460.00
6260.00
6140.00
4380.00
5080.00
4740.00
3800.00
5060.00
4260.00
4540.00
2900.00
4500.00
3540.00
3840.00
4080.00
3620.00
3820.00
4880.00
2800.00
3640.00
4100.00

4590.48
4518.14
4520.00
4540.44
4556.09
4566.81
4543.75
4578.78
4610.00
4605.49
4614.62
4616.98
4601.85
4610.18
4603.93
4602.81
4573.45
4572.20
4555.00
4543.28
4535.81
4521.27
4510.31
4516.00
4490.00
4477.31

4864.00
4208.00
4236.00
3808.00
3712.00
4368.00
4764.00
5096.00
5236.00
5060.00
5064.00
5320.00
4828.00
4612.00
4588.00
4480.00
4112.00
4252.00
3948.00
3864.00
3772.00
3916.00
3780.00
4048.00
3840.00
3752.00

4552.00
3424.00
3554.67
3956.00
4440.00
4889.33
4586.67
5085.33
5433.33
5148.00
5154.67
5046.67
4540.00
4617.33
4500.00
4484.00
3957.33
4086.67
3849.33
3813.33
3885.33
3834.67
3802.67
4169.33
3753.33
3686.67

4427.92
4356.84
4362.70
4388.68
4409.69
4425.37
4402.09
4446.89
4487.72
4485.12
4499.46
4505.26
4488.26
4502.04
4496.21
4497.26
4458.75
4459.74
4437.57
4423.16
4414.88
4395.72
4381.83
4393.85
4355.41
4338.16

Suma patratelor
Eroarea standard
Eroarea medie

B) Prin aceleasi metode ca si la punctul A) sa se realizeze previziunea vanzarilor pentru anul 1995
ANUL

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988

Anul

1398.02
1636.42
1894.48
2078.1
2459.78
2841.52
3140.22
3137.84
3268.5
3470.22
3659.18
3964.26
4264.36
4863.74

1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

5283.64
5789.4
5862.2
6434.6
6655.4
6970.6

9000.00

n orizont de 1 zi utilizand urmatoarele metode:

8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
erori de previziune
MAS
MM

5000.00
MME

NES
-900.00
301.70
-1585.57
-787.34
2231.64
357.83
509.20
-2583.07
399.21
-1170.42
917.81
-804.32
-2024.93
-1156.10
-908.23
-986.33
-142.54
2140.89
1709.27
-1051.94
-226.58
-1561.12
-1423.47
-4009.15
-2652.48
331.48
2023.49
994.69
1290.71
1139.59
792.11
1073.01
-472.86
-2081.46
488.73
-723.06
-385.62
-76.32
-3194.48
-1277.46
2713.35

4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
1 4 7 10131619222528313437404346495255
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
1 4 7 10131619222528313437404346495255
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
1 4 7 10131619222528313437404346495255

1 4 7 10131619222528313437404346495255
2947.92
-243.16
-1077.30
-871.32
-650.31
965.37
-1857.91
-1693.11
107.72
-594.88
-240.54
705.26
-571.74
242.04
-43.79
1597.26
-41.25
919.74
597.57
343.16
794.88
575.72
-498.17
1593.85
715.41
238.16

125036482
1356.0132

9000.00
8000.00
7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
1 4 7 10131619222528313437404346495255

Vanzari
MAS

525558616467

Vanzari
MAS
MM

525558616467

Vanzari
MAS
MM
MMP

525558616467

525558616467

Vanzari
NES

525558616467

Ziua
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47

Vanzari zilnice
999.9789225
1000.386511
998.587009
999.3441452
999.4922837
997.5824539
998.4574015
1000.767022
999.8053511
999.5215694
997.938412
1000.441103
999.1568075
999.674219
999.8991188
999.2326684
1000.994298
1001.020344
998.0698703
998.1597875
999.8313274
999.4508516
998.704111
999.6445479
1000.120508
999.9639999
999.7067232
999.8282226
1001.382314
1000.01771
999.5638666
999.6965653
999.2784888
999.8850376
1000.197456
1002.020452
1000.299272
999.2074709
999.427846
1000.81653
1000.955661
999.2382027
1000.192388
999.0463903
999.1057098
1001.980297
1001.339072

MAS
999.97892
1000.1827
999.65081
999.57415
999.55777
999.22855
999.11839
999.32447
999.3779
999.39227
999.2601
999.35852
999.343
999.36666
999.40216
999.39156
999.48584
999.57109
999.49208
999.42546
999.44479
999.44507
999.41285
999.42251
999.45043
999.47018
999.47894
999.49141
999.55662
999.57199
999.57173
999.57563
999.56662
999.57599
999.59374
999.66115
999.6784
999.66601
999.6599
999.68881
999.71971
999.70825
999.71951
999.70421
999.69091
999.74068

MM

999.55777
999.07848
998.69266
999.12866
999.2209
999.22676
999.29795
999.69469
999.37265
999.34642
999.42193
999.68078
999.79142
1000.1641
999.84326
999.49539
999.61513
999.30644
998.84319
999.15813
999.55027
999.5768
999.62798
999.8528
1000.2004
1000.1798
1000.0998
1000.0977
999.98779
999.68833
999.72428
1000.2156
1000.3361
1000.3219
1000.2305
1000.3543
1000.1414
999.92914
1000.1261
1000.0498
999.70767
999.9126

MMP

999.4234
998.76496
998.55793
999.24939
999.47495
999.57517
999.14572
999.52677
999.34748
999.448
999.63223
999.56915
1000.007
1000.4166
999.71854
999.15738
999.26936
999.2146
999.01383
999.28095
999.60174
999.73965
999.78296
999.8497
1000.3595
1000.2987
1000.0934
999.95895
999.68587
999.65162
999.82133
1000.5867
1000.6146
1000.2384
999.94035
1000.1357
1000.3361
1000.0351
1000.1228
999.76293
999.44822
1000.2058

NES
999.97892
999.98867
999.95516
999.94055
999.92984
999.87372
999.83986
999.86203
999.86067
999.85257
999.80681
999.82197
999.80607
999.80292
999.80522
999.79153
999.82028
999.84897
999.80644
999.76708
999.76861
999.76102
999.73575
999.73357
999.74282
999.74811
999.74712
999.74906
999.7881
999.79359
999.7881
999.78591
999.77378
999.77644
999.7865
999.83991
999.85089
999.83551
999.82576
999.84945
999.87589
999.86065
999.86858
999.84892
999.83116
999.88253

alfa
0.0239056

1
2
3
4
5
15

48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59

999.3114466
999.0525203
998.4663918
999.9280681
999.2701282
1000.805157
1000.476459
1000.12074
998.7382466
998.2292456
999.7786938

999.77469
999.76504
999.7505
999.72481
999.7288
999.71998
999.74045
999.75408
999.76075
999.74249
999.71594
999.71702

1000.3328
1000.1566
1000.1578
1000.0299
999.6195
999.20571
999.50445
999.78924
1000.1201
999.88215
999.67397
999.46868

1000.6813
1000.3408
999.97279
999.40899
999.37503
999.25857
999.79172
1000.1157
1000.2262
999.7656
999.21463
999.24954

999.91735
999.90287
999.88254
999.84869
999.85058
999.83671
999.85986
999.8746
999.88048
999.85318
999.81436
999.8135
suma patratelor
eroarea standard
eroarea medie

MAS
-0.407589
1.5957079
0.3066691
0.0818633
1.9753204
0.7711528
-1.648633
-0.480882
-0.143669
1.453855
-1.181004
0.2017079
-0.33122
-0.532461
0.1694869
-1.602736
-1.534503
1.5012208
1.332292
-0.405862
-0.00606
0.7409561
-0.231696
-0.698002
-0.513574
-0.236545
-0.349283
-1.8909
-0.461093
0.0081205
-0.12484
0.2971377
-0.318415
-0.621468
-2.426708
-0.638119
0.4709278
0.2381599
-1.15663
-1.266846
0.4815109
-0.484139
0.6731178
0.5985002
-2.289387
-1.598393

MM

1.9753204
0.6210792
-2.074364
-0.67669
-0.300667
1.2883477
-1.143151
0.537884
-0.30157
-0.552697
0.1892636
-1.313515
-1.228922
2.0942593
1.6834724
-0.335934
0.1642738
0.6023251
-0.801358
-0.962383
-0.413731
-0.129919
-0.200245
-1.529513
0.1826434
0.6159273
0.403202
0.8192469
0.1027513
-0.509122
-2.296169
-0.083672
1.1286702
0.8940915
-0.58603
-0.601347
0.903153
-0.263246
1.0797351
0.9441244
-2.272627
-1.426474

MME

1.8409442
0.3075565
-2.209091
-0.555965
-0.04662
1.6367597
-1.29538
0.3699655
-0.326741
-0.451117
0.3995656
-1.425152
-1.013359
2.3467546
1.558751
-0.673946
-0.181493
0.51049
-0.630722
-0.839563
-0.36226
0.0329267
-0.045266
-1.532609
0.3418323
0.7347947
0.3967869
0.6804628
-0.199168
-0.545837
-2.199125
0.2874443
1.4071355
0.810537
-0.876177
-0.819965
1.0979422
-0.157294
1.0764522
0.657221
-2.532075
-1.133307

NES
-0.407589
1.4016571
0.6110135
0.4482684
2.347382
1.4163189
-0.92716
0.0566757
0.3391025
1.9141535
-0.634296
0.6651623
0.1318497
-0.096202
0.5725481
-1.202769
-1.200062
1.7791001
1.6466525
-0.064252
0.3177602
1.0569046
0.0912018
-0.386939
-0.22118
0.0413837
-0.081105
-1.633257
-0.22961
0.2297228
0.0915324
0.5074208
-0.111258
-0.421017
-2.233948
-0.459364
0.643418
0.4076616
-0.990767
-1.106214
0.6376891
-0.33174
0.8221876
0.7432132
-2.149141
-1.456539

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1

10 13 16 19 22 25

0.463241
0.7125165
1.2841038
-0.203255
0.4586707
-1.085179
-0.736006
-0.366657
1.022503
1.513245
-0.062751

suma patratelor
eroarea standard
eroarea medie

1.0213248
1.1040629
1.6914173
0.1018775
0.3493715
-1.599446
-0.972006
-0.331499
1.381864
1.6529007
-0.104724

1.3698098
1.2882945
1.506402
-0.51908
0.1049007
-1.546586
-0.684739
-0.005017
1.4879756
1.5363553
-0.56406

0.6059054
0.8503472
1.4161475
-0.079382
0.580455
-0.96845
-0.616601
-0.246141
1.1422362
1.6239314
0.0356622

55.685852 61.157951 63.933964 54.724755

0.9884052 1.0742084 1.0983174 0.9798385
-0.134781 0.0098409 0.0078556 0.1213979

Vanzari zilnice
MAS
MM
MMP
NES

22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58