Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Environmental Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvman

A two-stage support-vector-regression optimization model for municipal solid waste management e A case study of Beijing, China
C. Dai 1, Y.P. Li*, G.H. Huang 2
MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy Systems Optimization, S-C Energy and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history: Received 30 January 2011 Received in revised form 7 June 2011 Accepted 21 June 2011 Available online 26 August 2011 Keywords: Support-vector-regression Management Interval Optimization Municipal solid waste Planning Uncertainty

a b s t r a c t
In this study, a two-stage support-vector-regression optimization model (TSOM) is developed for the planning of municipal solid waste (MSW) management in the urban districts of Beijing, China. It represents a new effort to enhance the analysis accuracy in optimizing the MSW management system through coupling the support-vector-regression (SVR) model with an interval-parameter mixed integer linear programming (IMILP). The developed TSOM can not only predict the citys future waste generation amount, but also reect dynamic, interactive, and uncertain characteristics of the MSW management system. Four kernel functions such as linear kernel, polynomial kernel, radial basis function, and multilayer perception kernel are chosen based on three quantitative simulation performance criteria [i.e. prediction accuracy (PA), tting accuracy (FA) and over all accuracy (OA)]. The SVR with polynomial kernel has accurate prediction performance for MSW generation rate, with all of the three quantitative simulation performance criteria being over 96%. Two cases are considered based on different waste management policies. The results are valuable for supporting the adjustment of the existing wasteallocation patterns to raise the citys waste diversion rate, as well as the capacity planning of waste management system to satisfy the citys increasing waste treatment/disposal demands. 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Municipal solid waste (MSW) management in China has emerged as a serious issue, which poses a challenge with regard to environmental quality and sustainable development (Zhao et al., 2009). Especially, Beijing produces more than 7 million tonne of MSW each year, and MSW generation is increasing at an annual rate of 9e12%. Besides, collection and disposal system of MSW mainly consist of garbage trucks and landlls in Beijing, which may result in groundwater contamination, the scarcity of land near urban centers, and the growing opposition from the public (BMAC, 2007). Moreover, complexities exist in such an MSW management system, including the collection techniques to be used, the levels of service to be offered, and the facilities to be adopted (Li and Huang, 2006). Uncertainties exist in the related cost parameters, capacity limitations, waste generation rates, and waste diversion goals, which would bring signicant difculties to the formulation of waste management models and generation of

* Corresponding author. Tel.: 86 10 6177 2977; fax: 86 10 6177 2982. E-mail addresses: daichao321@gmail.com (C. Dai), yongping.li@iseis.org (Y.P. Li), gordon.huang@uregina.ca (G.H. Huang). 1 Tel.: 86 10 51971215; fax: 86 10 51971255. 2 Tel.: 86 10 6177 2981; fax: 86 10 6177 2982. 0301-4797/$ e see front matter 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.06.038

effective solutions (Tan et al., 2009; Guo and Huang, 2009). It is thus deemed necessary to develop effective systems approaches for supporting MSW e management and planning under such complexities. Previously, various mathematical programming models were developed for supporting MSW management and planning (Or and Curi, 1993; Chang and Chang, 1998; Huang et al., 2005; Li and Huang, 2008; Riccardo et al., 2008; Xu et al., 2009; Sun and Huang, 2010; Lv et al., 2010). Although the above models could generate desired policies for managing waste collection and treatment, they could truly encounter difculties when the mathematical optimization models required the input data with anticipated prediction accuracy. For example, waste generation rate as the input data of the optimization models may mislead the optimization results if its prediction accuracy is too low. Therefore, accurate prediction of waste generation rate is crucial for designing and planning the MSW management system (Jalili Ghazi Zade and Noori, 2008). Traditional methods for predicting the waste generation rate include load-count analysis, weight-volume analysis, and materials-balance analysis. They frequently count on some elements such as population and social economic factors and can be computed according to generation coefcient per person (Noori et al., 2009a). However, these coefcients may change during the

3024

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037

Min f
subject to:

k X j1

c x j j

n X j k1

c x j j

2. Methodology An IMILP model is formulated by introducing interval-parameters into the mixed integer linear programming (MILP) framework as follows (Li et al., 2010):

k n     X X jaij j Sign a x jaij j Sign a x j ij ij j j1 jk1

b ;cisl i

time, such that these methods are unavailable for the dynamics MSW management system. Besides, Beijing is a metropolis where population growth and migration, underlying economic development, the impact of consumption level can inuence the solid waste generation interactively (Dyson and Chang, 2005; Li and Huang, 2008; Yan et al., 2010). Therefore, the development of advanced techniques for predicting the aggregate impact of economic trend, population changes, and consumption impact on solid waste generation would be a useful advance in the practice of solid waste management. Correspondingly, articial neural network (ANN) methods were used for tackling prediction for solid waste generation levels (Karaca and zkaya, 2006; Shu et al., 2006; Jalili Ghazi Zade and Noori, 2008; Noori et al., 2009b, 2009c, 2010). For example, Noori et al. (2009b) introduced an ANN model to predict the weekly municipal solid waste generation in Tehran, concerning complexity and dynamic MSW management system. Noori et al. (2010) developed an appropriate ANN model using the afore-mentioned algorithms to optimize the network parameters for weekly solid waste prediction in Mashhad, Iran. Support-vectorregression (SVR) as another kind of articial intelligence technique is a useful tool for forecasting waste generation amount, which can assist decision makers to generate more practical and realistic results, particularly for large-scale MSW management systems associated with a variety of uncertainties and complexities. SVR model is powerful for the problems with the characters of small samples, nonlinearity, high dimension, and local minima (Wang et al., 2008). SVR model is intended to alleviate the main drawback of parametric regression, which is a novel powerful learning machine based on statistical learning theory, and it adheres to the principle of structural risk minimization seeking to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error, rather than minimize the training error (Vapnik, 1998; Chen and Wang, 2007; Noori et al., 2009c). Recently, The SVR model is frequently used in the water and environmental engineering (Lu and Wang, 2005; Liu et al., 2006; Lin et al., 2009; Noori et al., 2009d, 2011; Lv et al., 2010). For example, Noori et al. (2009d) proposed an SVR model for predicting the longitudinal dispersion coefcient in natural streams. However, few research works focused on the application of the SVR model to MSW management. Moreover, capacity expansions for individual waste management facilities are needed to satisfy increasing waste management demands in the MSW management system under uncertainty. A related inexact optimization approach will typically require the use of integer variables to indicate whether or not particular facility development or expansion options are to be undertaken (Li and Huang, 2006). Therefore, to better account for improving the analysis accuracy in optimizing the MSW management system, one potential approach is to introduce the SVR into an interval-parameter mixed integer linear programming (IMILP) framework. This will lead to a two-stage support-vector-regression optimization model (TSOM). The objective of this study is to develop such a TSOM and apply it to the planning for solid waste management system in the major urban districts of Beijing, China. The proposed TSOM can not only predict the waste generation rate in the future, but also be useful for uncertainty reection and dynamic analysis. The modeling results will be used for supporting the adjustment of the existing waste-allocation patterns to raise the citys waste diversion rate, as well as the capacity planning of waste management system to satisfy the citys increasing waste treatment/disposal demands.

Min f C X ;
subject to:

(1a)

A X X ! 0;

(1b) (1c) (1d)

x interval decision variables; x X j j

where, superscript means interval-valued feature; the e and superscripts represent lower and upper bounds of an intervalparameter/variable, respectively, A fR gmn , B fR gm1 , C fR g1n , X fR gn1 and R denote a set of interval numbers. In model (1), the decision variables X can be sorted into two categories: continuous and binary. Thus, given uncertain information for parameters A , B and C , the IMILP model may provide interval solutions for the decision variables and objective function value. However, when parameters in the constraints are functional intervals (instead of crisp interval), the traditional IMILP model becomes inapplicable. Let c be the jth element of C , a be the element of A j ij at the ith row and jth column, and b be the ith element of B . i Meanwhile, assuming that the parameters of the lth constraints are functions of an independent variable s, and its value can be calculated by the SVR model. Therefore, through introducing the SVR into the IMILP model [i.e. model (1)], a two-stage support-vector-regression optimization model (TSOM) can be formulated as follows:

Min f
subject to
n X j1 n X j1

k X j1

c x j j

n X j k1

c x j j

(2a)

a x ij j

b ; cisl i b s ; i l i

(2b)

a x ij j

(2c)

x ! 0; cj j

(2d)

where, a and b isl are interval coefcients, b si l ij i i denotes the waste generation [i.e. w(s)] predicted by SVR model with the input vector s, where its upper bound equals w(s) e and its lower bound equals w(s)e; e is the precision parameter of SVR are positive coefcients, model, c j 1; 2; .; k j j k 1; k 2; .; n are negative coefcients. An interaccj tive solution algorithm has been developed to solve the above problem through analyses of the interrelationships between the parameters and the variables and between the objective function and the constraints. According to Huang et al. (1995), the solution for model (2) can be obtained through a two-step method, where a submodel corresponding to f (when the objective function is to be minimized) can be rst formulated as follows (assume that b > i 0 and f > 0):

(3a)

(3b)

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037

k X j1 n     X jaij j Sign a x jaij j Sign a x j ij ij j jk1

3025

b s;i l i

(3c)

x ! 0; cj j
x j j

(3d)

where, 1; 2; .; k are interval variables with positive coefcients in the objective function; x j k 1; k 2; .; n are j interval variables with negative coefcients. Solutions of j 1; 2; .; k, x j k 1; k 2; .; n, and f xjopt opt can be jopt obtained from submodel (3). Thus, the submodel corresponding to f can be formulated as follows:

Min f
subject to:
k X j1

k X j1

c x j j

n X j k1

c x j j

(4a)

parameters. The most used kernel functions are (1) linear kernel: Kxi ; xj XT j; (2) Polynomial kernel with an order of d: i Kxi ; xj xT xj 1d ; (3) Radial basis function (RBF) with a width i of s: Kxi ; xj expkxi xj k2 =2s2 ; (4) Multi-layer perception kernel with constant b: Kxi ; xj tanhxT xj b (Campbell, i 2002; Wu et al., 2009). Selecting the kernel function parameters is usually based on application-domain knowledge and may reect distribution of input values of the training data (Chapelle and Vapnik, 1999; Vapnik, 1998, 1999). For example, the RBF width parameter (s) of RBF kernels function reects the distribution/ range of training data values. In this study, the following three quantitative simulation performance criteria can help assess the prediction performance of SVR model with different kernel function (Levis and Papageorgiou, 2005): (1) Prediction accuracy (PA): derives from the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) criterion and is used to compare actual waste generation values and predicted waste generation values over the forecasting horizon time periods. It can be dened as follows:

n     X jaij j Sign a x jaij j Sign a x ij j j ij jk1

b ;cisl i

(4b)

Pnm

k X j1

n     X jaij j Sign a x jaij j Sign a x ij j j ij jk1

PA 1 b s;i l i (4c)

t n1

^ jwt wt =wt j 100% m

(5a)

x ! x ; j 1; 2; .; k jopt j 0 x j x ; j k 1; k 2; .; n jopt

(4d) (4e)

(2) Fitting accuracy (FA): it is used to compare actual waste generation values and predicted waste generation values over all the training points time periods. It can be dened as follows:

Pn

FA 1

t1

^ jwt wt =wt j 100% n

(5b)

3. Case study 3.1. Overview of the study system The study area is the Beijings urban districts which contains eight districts (named as Dongcheng district, Xicheng district, Chongwen district, Xuanwu district, Chaoyang district, Haidian district, Fengtai district, Shijing shan district). The urban districts cover an area of approximately 735 square kilometers. The population of Beijing is about 16.95 million and the urban districts is approximately 14.39 million at the end of 2008. The amount of MSW generated in Beijing increased continuously over the last 30 years, from 1.28 million tonne in 1979 to 6.57 million tonne in 2008 (BMBS, 1980e2009). This can be attributed to a rapid population increase, consumption level improvement and economic development. The average waste production per person per day in Beijing is about 1.06 kg, and this amount is a little more than 0.9 kg/person/day. The main reason is that consumption level of individual resident in Beijing is higher than that in other common city. Because MSW arises as a direct consequence of human activities and the more people living in the city, the more waste

Solutions of x j 1; 2; .; k, x j k 1; k 2; .; n, and jopt jopt fopt can be obtained from submodel (4). Through integration solutions of sub-models (3) and (4), interval solution for model (2) can be obtained. The TSOM model [i.e. model (2)] has numerical solutions only when the waste generation [i.e. w(s)] is known. Assuming that the dependant variable (w) depends on a number of z independent variables (s1, s2,., sz) that are called attributes and form the associated input vector s (i.e. s s1 ; s2 ; .; sz T ) (Agrawal et al., 2003). The dependant variable w is a function of the input vector s which in turns contains the multiple independent variables. The SVR model can reveal the regression relationship between s and w. It is an adaptation of recently introduced statistical/machine learning theory based classication paradigm namely, support vector machines. The detailed descriptions of SVR model can be found in Vapnik (1995, 1998, 1999) and Smola and Schlkopf (2000). SVR generalization performance (estimation accuracy) depends on a good setting of regularization constant C, precision parameter e and the kernel parameters (Cherkassky and Ma, 2004). C and e are two user-specied free parameters. C represents the trade off between the model complexity and the approximation error. e signies the width of the e-insensitive zone used to t the training data. Both C and e values affect SVR model complexity in a different way. In this study, the optimal values of parameter C and e are determined by employing a grid-search in a n-fold cross-validation approach (Lin et al., 2003; Kulkarni et al., 2004). The crossvalidation method can prevent the overtting problem. Its detailed procedure can be found in Min and Lee (2005). By using the grid-search on parameters C and e, the two parameters can be searched in the range of C 2p, p 8, 7,.., 0,..7, 8 and e 2q, q 8, 7, .., 0,..7, 8. All the pairs of (C, e) are tried and the one with the best cross-validation accuracy can be selected. Different kernel functions require tuning the different kernel

(3) Over all accuracy (OA): it is used to compare actual waste generation values and to predict waste generation values over all time periods (both training and forecasting). It can be dened as follows:

Pnm OA 1
t1

^ jwt wt =wt j 100% nm

(5c)

where, m is number of training and prediction points; n is number of training points; wt denotes the actual waste generation values; wt denotes the predicted waste generation values; t is the time periods.

3026

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037

produces, total population (TP) is the most important factor determining the amount of waste generation. Consumption level of individual residents (CLIR) as a kind of revealing economic parameters can be utilized to assess the level of consumerism in a country. Thus, CLIR is the second major parameter inuencing the MSW generation rate. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the widely-available parameter describing the economic prosperity of a country or area, which provides a quantitative indication of the mean living standard and indicates the ability to consume and produce goods. Fig. 1 shows the general process of MSW management system including collection, pretreatment, treatment and marketing. The waste generated in the urban districts is collected by residents rst and then shipped to transfer stations for pretreatment, and last it is allocated to waste management facilities. Source separation collection is the preferred method of reduction and Beijing municipal administration commission has implemented a number of sorting and recycling planning since 2005. The waste collection costs can be estimated as [1.23, 1.82] $/tonne based on the existing conditions in the collection areas. The average container size, collection frequency, and collection time (per load) can be considered. The average distance from where the waste is generated to the waste management facilities is more than 50 km, costs for waste transportation are necessary to be considered. In this study, a projected interval of [0.67, 0.72] $/km t is used for approximating the unit transportation costs over the planning horizon. Transportation costs are affected by three aspects: (1) spatial factor (i.e., distance from transfer stations i to composting sit p); (2) wage factor (i.e., pay for the truck driver transferring the waste); (3) load factor (i.e., weight of the transferred solid waste), the more solid waste is loaded by the tracks, the more oil consumption and costs could be needed. There are many types of trucks for transporting the MSW in the eight urban districts. For example, trucks equipped with a loader crane are used to serve the Chaoyang and Haidian districts after Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The delivery includes a deep collection container of 5 m3 which can collect [4.8, 5.4] tonne waste at every turn. The capacity of the majority trucks in other district is about [1.8, 2.2] tonne (BMSWM, 2010). Therefore, for the long-term planning exercise, a general truck capacity of [2.6, 3.0] tonne will be used for estimating the transportation costs.

There are six transfer stations to service the BUWS, including Majialou with a designing capacity 980 t/day, Xiaowuji with a designing capacity 980 t/day, Datun with a designing capacity 1500 t/day, Wuluju with a designing capacity 1500 t/day, Yamenkou with a designing capacity 500 t/day and Liyuan with a designing capacity 1000 t/day (BMSWM, 2010). Aiming at the 11th Five-Year Plan in Beijing, about [60, 85]% of recyclable waste would be recovered by the end of 2010 (BMAC, 2007). It is estimated that the MSW can be reduced by [15.1, 21.4]% in the transfer stations. Composition of the recyclable waste includes 42.91% of paper, 1.05% of metal, 6.82% of grass and 49.22% of plastic, and the recycling price of each corresponding recyclable composition is [56.83, 65.09] $/t, [72.31, 89.12] $/t, [3.34, 4.13] $/t and [7.39, 8.64] $/t, respectively (Li et al., 2009). Thus the average recycling price can be estimated as [29.01, 33.40] $/t during the planning periods. Before the waste ow shipped to the transfer stations, an informal recycling system which consists of waste pickers plays an important role in reduction of waste. About 300 thousand individuals, most of who is from Henan, Hebei and Anhui provinces, live on the proceeds of waste recycling in Beijing City. According to statistical data, materials recycled by these waste pickers is about [20.4, 25.6]% of the total waste generation. The main approaches for waste treatment include landll, composting and incinerator. In 2008, sanitary landll accounted for 93.9% of MSW disposal, and incineration and composting comprised 4.2% and 2.5%. There are sixteen landlls distributed in the suburb districts of Beijing. Approximately 11.4 million tonne per year of garbage were buried at the landll, where the industrial, commercial and institutional (IC&I) sector produced 42.4% (or 4.83 million tonne) of the total waste ow, and the residential sector generated approximately 57.6% (or 6.57 million tonne). The landlls are used directly to satisfy waste disposal demand or alternatively to provide capacity for the other facilities residue disposals. It typically has an over all cumulative capacity limit. The existing landll is overloaded because of the fact that the daily designed capacity is inferior to the actual waste generation rate, but fortunately it is able to accept waste till 2015 (BMAC, 2009). Thus, it is no consideration for landlls to be expanded in the planning horizon. The nine composting facilities with the total designing capacity of 8000 t/day are used to service the districts (BMSWM, 2010; Huang et al., 2010). Most of the

Six transfer stations Yamenkou transfer station Wuluju transfer station Waste generation of urban districts Majialou transfer station Xiaowuji transfer station Liyuan transfer station Datun transfer station

Nine composting facilities Asuwei composting Sixteen landfills Zhaitang landll Nangong composting Jiaojiapo landll

Power Generation

Power Generation

Six incinerators Huairou Incinerator Pinggu landll

Miyun Incinerator Collection Pretreatment Treatment

Compost Marketing

Fig. 1. General process of MSW management system.

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037 Table 1 Operation costs for waste ows (unit: $/t). MSW management facility Transfer station Yamenkou transfer station Wuluju transfer station Majialou transfer station Xiaowuji transfer station Datun transfer station Liyuan transfer station Composting facility Asuwei composting Liulitun composting Fengtai composting Xitianyang composting Dongcun composting Gaoantun composting Miyun composting Huairou composting Nangong composting Incinerator Asuwei incinerator Liulitun incinerator Nangong incinerator Gaoantun incinerator Fangshan incinerator Shunyi incinerator Landll Yongning landll Xiaozhangjia landll Asuwei landll Liulitun landll Zhaitang landll Jiaojiapo landll Wangzuo landll Yanshan landll Dongnanzhao landll Anding landll Dadushe landll Pinggu landll Gaoantun landll Shunyi landll Miyun landll Huairou landll k1 [40.17, [38.30, [38.61, [38.43, [37.25, [41.51, [20.09, [19.15, [19.30, [19.22, [18.62, [20.75, [18.22, [20.61, [20.67, [31.91, [30.27, [32.02, [31.71, [33.12, [31.46, [9.64, [9.19, [9.27, [9.22, [8.94, [9.96, [8.75, [9.89, [9.92, [9.63, [8.95, [9.74, [8.66, [8.90, [9.72, [9.95, 41.18] 39.26] 39.58] 39.39] 38.18] 42.54] 21.09] 20.11] 20.27] 20.18] 19.56] 21.79] 19.13] 21.64] 21.70] 33.51] 31.78] 33.62] 33.30] 34.78] 33.04] k2 [38.37, [36.50, [36.81, [36.63, [35.45, [39.71, [18.29, [17.35, [17.50, [17.42, [16.82, [18.95, [16.42, [18.81, [18.87, [30.11, [28.47, [30.22, [29.91, [31.32, [29.66, [8.84, [8.39, [8.47, [8.42, [8.14, [9.16, [7.95, [9.09, [9.12, [8.83, [8.15, [8.94, [7.86, [8.10, [8.92, [9.15, 39.38] 37.46] 37.78] 37.59] 36.38] 40.74] 19.29] 18.31] 18.47] 18.38] 17.76] 19.99] 17.33] 19.84] 19.90] 31.71] 29.98] 31.82] 31.50] 32.98] 31.24] k3 [36.47, [34.60, [34.91, [34.73, [33.55, [37.81, [16.39, [15.45, [15.60, [15.52, [14.92, [17.05, [14.52, [16.91, [16.97, [28.21, [26.57, [28.32, [28.01, [29.42, [27.76, [7.74, [7.29, [7.37, [7.32, [7.04, [8.06, [6.85, [7.99, [8.02, [7.73, [7.05, [7.84, [6.76, [7.01, [7.82, [8.05, 37.48] 35.56] 35.88] 35.69] 34.48] 38.84] 17.39] 16.41] 16.57] 16.48] 15.86] 18.09] 15.43] 17.94] 18.00] 29.81] 28.08] 29.92] 29.60] 31.08] 29.34]

3027

beginning of 2011 (BMSWM, 2010). The waste ow can be reduced to [78, 82]% by incinerating technology, and the residue will be nally transported to landll. In addition, the combustion heat could be collected to generate power or provided to local resident for heat supply. For example, completed in 2009, the Gaoantun incinerator burned 1600 tons of garbage daily, mostly from Chaoyang district, and generated 200 million kilowatt-hours of electricity each year. Revenue can be obtained from electrical power/heating generated by incinerator heat. 3.2. Data collection and analysis According to BMBS (1980e2009), the data of the time series of waste generation, TP, CLIR and GDP from 1979 to 2008 can be collected. It is indicated that the increasing waste generation rate can be attributed to population growth, economic development, and consumption level change. TP was 5.00 million in 1979 and 14.39 million in 2008 with an average annual increase of 3.59%; the CLIR, a resident living standard index, increased more quickly than the population with an average annual increase of 14.44%; GDP was an economic development index with an average annual increase of 16.07%. Meanwhile, waste generated increased steadily over the last 30 years, from 1.28 million tonne in 1979 to 6.57 million tonne in 2008. Due to the reasons of history, the issue concerning to data loss, incomplete or contrary to common sense could be inevitable in the time series. Cubic spline interpolation is one of the most effective means to patch the data (Marin, 1984). The study time horizon is 5 years (from 2011 to 2015), which is further divided into three periods; the rst period is 2011, the second period includes 2012 and 2013, and the third period is from 2014 to 2015. The main expenses of MSW management include the operating costs for waste collection, transportation, and processing, as well as the capital costs for developing/expanding waste management facilities. Table 1 contains operating costs for waste management facilities (Xi et al., 2010). Table 2 presents the revenues from transfer stations, composting facilities and incinerators over the planning periods (Xi et al., 2010; BMSWM, 2010). Over the 5-year planning horizon, due to the temporal variations of relationships among waste generation, collection, transportation and disposal, facility
Table 2 Revenues for waste ows (unit: $/t). MSW management facility Transfer station Yamenkou transfer station Wuluju transfer station Majialou transfer station Xiaowuji transfer station Datun transfer station Liyuan transfer station Composting facility Asuwei composting Liulitun composting Fengtai composting Xitianyang composting Dongcun composting Gaoantun composting Miyun composting Huairou composting Nangong composting Incinerator Asuwei incinerator Liulitun incinerator Nangong incinerator Gaoantun incinerator Fangshan incinerator Shunyi incinerator k1 [30.32, [29.32, [29.49, [30.97, [31.94, [29.43, 31.92] 30.86] 31.04] 32.60] 33.22] 30.98] k2 [29.52, [28.52, [28.69, [30.17, [31.14, [28.63, [8.24, [7.82, [7.89, [7.85, [7.58, [8.54, [7.40, [8.47, [8.50, 31.12] 30.06] 30.24] 31.80] 32.82] 30.18] k3 [28.42, [27.42, [27.59, [29.07, [30.04, [27.53, [7.14, [6.72, [6.79, [6.75, [6.48, [7.44, [6.30, [7.37, [7.40, 30.02] 28.96] 29.14] 30.70] 31.72] 29.08]

10.04] 9.57] 9.65] 9.61] 9.31] 10.38] 9.11] 10.3] 10.34] 10.03] 9.32] 10.15] 9.02] 9.27] 10.13] 10.37]

9.24] 8.77] 8.85] 8.81] 8.51] 9.58] 8.31] 9.50] 9.54] 9.23] 8.52] 9.35] 8.22] 8.47] 9.33] 9.57]

8.14] 7.67] 7.75] 7.71] 7.41] 8.48] 7.21] 8.40] 8.44] 8.13] 7.42] 8.25] 7.12] 7.37] 8.23] 8.47]

composting facilities were reconstructed through the technology renovation in order to shorten the composting time and thus enhance the efciency of composting. For example, Nangong composting facilitys composting time in high temperatures has been reduced from ten days to about seven days, enhancing waste processing capacity by almost 30 percent in the last few years. The residue ([23, 28]% of original waste) from composting facilities will be nally disposed by landlls. Besides, revenue can be obtained from compost produced by composting technology. The effort of building incinerators in Beijing is often met with protests because most of the people think burning garbage will generate the hazardous substances (i.e. dioxin). Out of the four incinerators scheduled for completion by the end of 2007, only the Gaoantun furnace is up and running; Nangong incinerator in Daxing is still in the design phase, while incinerators for the Asuwei waste treatment plant in Changping and the Liulitun landll in Haidian were both shelved after residents protested (BMAC, 2007). However, adopting the latest technology, the dioxin level in the waste gas from the incinerator furnace can be kept under 0.074 ng per cubic meter, well under Chinas national standard and the common European standard of 0.1 ng per cubic meter (BMAC, 2009). Compared to landlls, incinerators consume less land and generate more energy; the Beijing Municipal Commission decides to build more new incinerators, leading to six incinerators being used to service the citys waste disposal with the total designing capacity of 6200 t/day in the

[9.04, 10.04] [8.62, 9.57] [8.69, 9.65] [8.65, 9.61] [8.38, 9.31] [9.34, 10.38] [8.20, 9.11] [9.27, 10.3] [9.3, 10.34] [15.50, [15.05, [13.99, [15.22, [13.54, [13.91, 16.54] 16.05] 14.92] 16.24] 14.44] 14.84]

9.24] 8.77] 8.85] 8.81] 8.51] 9.58] 8.31] 9.50] 9.54] 15.74] 15.25] 14.12] 15.44] 13.64] 14.04]

8.14] 7.67] 7.75] 7.71] 7.41] 8.48] 7.21] 8.40] 8.44] 14.64] 14.15] 13.02] 14.34] 12.54] 12.94]

[14.70, [14.25, [13.19, [14.42, [12.74, [13.11,

[13.60, [13.15, [12.09, [13.32, [11.64, [12.01,

3028

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037

expansion is considered during the entire planning horizon. Table 3 shows the capacity expansion options and the associated capital costs for different facilities (BMSWM, 2010). Since the planning problem under consideration is dynamic and includes multiple periods, discount factors are considered for each planning period to obtain the total present value for the objective function. Diversion rate can be dened as the summation percentage of waste treated in incinerator and composting facilities. Based on a policy for waste minimization and diversion, the city should consider expanding the incinerators and composting facilities. 3.3. Modeling formulation Generally, many challenging questions will arise in this study system, such as (i) how to predict the waste generation amount with a high prediction accuracy? (ii) how to achieve a minimum system cost under uncertainty? (iii) how to select an optimal facility expansion scheme? (iv) how to allocate waste ows to suitable waste disposal facilities? (v) how to achieve the waste diversion goal and thus lengthen the landlls life? and (f) how to reect the effects of the three factors (i.e. population factor, consumption factor and economy factor) on the system cost and landll-capacity consumption? Based on the TSOM developed in Section 2, the study system can be formulated as follows:

XUIik

6 X t 1

XTItik

k ICi i :

8 <

3 k0 XX f 1 k1

DCIFifk BIFifk ;ci;k0 ;

9 =

1;2;3; (6e)

(Incinerator constraint)

Lk

6 X t1

XUTtk

9 X c1

XUCck

6 X i1

XUIik

16 X l1

!
XUTlk

^ ! a wk Pk ; Tk ; Ck ; ck k
FTtk XUTtk 6 X i1 XTCtck 9 X i1 XTItik 16 X l1

(6f) XTL ; ct; k tlk (6g)

(Mass balance)
FIik XUIik 6 X t1

!
XTItik

16 X l1

YIL ; ci; k ilk

(6h)

FCck XUCck

6 X t1

XTCtck

16 X l1

YCL ; cc; k clk

(6i)

(Residue constraint)

Min f

6 3 X X t 1 k1

6 9 3 9 3   X X X   X X  Lk XUTtk ColCk DUTt TR OTtk Lk XTCtck DTCtc TR OCck Lk XUCck ColCk k k t 1 c1 k1 c1 k1

DUCc TR OCck k 3 X k1

6 6 3 X X X t 1 i1 k1

Lk XTItik DTIti TR OIik k 16 3 X X l1 k1

6 3 X X i1 k1

6 16  X X Lk XUIik ColCk DUIi TR OIik k

t1 l1

Lk XTL DTL TR OL tlk tl k lk 

Lk XUL ColCk DUL TR OL lk l k lk

9 16 3 X X X c1 l1 k1

Lk YCL DCL TR OL clk cl k lk

6 3 X X t1 k1 Lk XUTtk

6 16 3 XX X i1 l1 k1

Lk YIL DIL TR OL ilk il k lk

9 3 3 X X X c1 e1 k1

ECEcek BCEcek

6 3 3 X X X i1 f 1 k1

EIFifk BIFifk

9 3 6 9 3 6 3       X X X X X X X 1 FTtk RTtk Lk XUCck 1 FCck RCck Lk XTCtck 1 FCck RCck Lk XUIik c1 k1 t 1 c1 k1 i1 k1 6 6 3     X X X 1 FIik RIik Lk XTItik 1 FIik RIik t1 i1 k1

(6a)

Subject to
3 X k1

Lk XUL lk

6 X t 1

XTL tlk

9 X c1

YCL clk

6 X i1

! YIL ilk

6 X

d LCl ;cl l
(6b)

t 1 9 X c1

^ Lk XUTtk ! GTK a wk Pk ; Tk ; Ck ; ci; k k 6 9 X X t1 c1

(6j)
9 X c1

"
XTCtck

XUCck

GCK

6 X t1

FTtk XUTtk

XUCck

(Landll constraint)
XUTtk TCt ; ct; k

(6c) (
3 k0 X X e1 k1

6 X i1

XUIik

16 X l1

XUL ; ck lk "
6 X t1

6k

(Transfer station constraint)

XUCck

6 X t1

)
DCCEcek BCEcek

XTCtck

z c

CCc

; cc; k

6 X i1

XUIik

6 6 X X t1 i1

XTItik

GIK

FTtk XUTtk 16 X l1

1; 2; 3; (6d)
(Composting constraint)

9 X c1

XUCck

6 X i1

# XUL lk ; ck 6l

XUIik

(Diversion rate)

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037 Table 3 Capacity expansion options and their capital costs for waste management facilities. Expansion option Total capacity Capacity for residential waste Expansion cost ($ 106) k1
Composting facility DCCEcek and ECEcek Option 1 (e 1) 289 t/d Option 2 (e 2) 560 t/d Option 3 (e 3) 846 t/d Incinerator (DCIFifk and EIFifk ) Option 1 (f 1) Option 2 (f 2) Option 3 (f 3)

3029

k2 [0.43, 0.46] [0.76, 0.79] [1.03, 1.08] [1.56, 1.65] [2.23, 2.33] [2.77, 2.80]

k3 [0.37, 0.39] [0.71, 0.74] [0.99, 1.04] [1.49, 1.58] [2.17, 2.27] [2.72, 2.74]

200 t/d 400 t/d 600 t/d 300 t/d 500 t/d 700 t/d

[0.53, 0.56] [0.84, 0.87] [1.10, 1.15] [1.66, 1.76] [2.31, 2.41] [2.84, 2.87]

428 t/d 721 t/d 1000 t/d

3 X e1 3 X f 1

BCEcek BIFifk

1; cc; k 1; ci; k

(6m) (6n)

BIFifk

  1 BIFifk are integer number; ci; f ; k

(6p)

(Binary constraints)
XUTtk ; XUIik ; XUCck ; XUL ; XTCtck ; XTItik ; XTL lk tlk

(Expansion/development may only be considered once in the planning horizon)

BCEcek

! 0; ct; c; i; l; k

(6q)

BCEcek

are integer number; cc; e; k

(6o)

(Non-negativity constraint) The detailed nomenclatures for the variables and parameters are provided in Appendix. In model (6), the decision variables are sorted into two categories: discrete and continuous. The discrete

Fig. 2. Framework of the TSOM (note: h1, h2 and h3 are the desired prediction accuracy; S1, S2, S3 denote the TP, CLIR and GDP).

3030

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037

0.8

0.6

MSE

0.4

0.2

0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

Log2C

Log2
Fig. 3. Contour of cross-validation MSE.

variables represent the expansion options for waste management facilities in different periods, while the continuous ones represent the optimized waste ows in the study area. The objective is to minimize the total system cost by achieving optimal plans for

facility expansion/development and waste ow allocation over the entire planning horizon. The constraints include all of the relationships among decision variables, waste generation rates, waste diversion goals, and waste management-facility capacities. To get

Fig. 4. Comparison of the prediction and actual value with (a) SVR1 model, (b) SVR2 model, (c) SVR3 model and (d) SVR4 model.

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037 Table 4 Waste generation prediction results. Year TP (million) 18.52 19.08 19.65 20.24 20.85 GDP (billion RMB U) 147.349 165.031 184.835 207.015 231.857 CLIR (RMB U) 28584.67 32014.82 35856.60 40159.40 44978.52 SVR parameters Waste generation (million tonne) 7.39 8.14 9.02 10.05 11.23

3031

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

C 8, e 0.25, d2

the optimal waste ow allocation pattern and facility capacity expansion scheme with model (6), the amount of waste generation ^ (i.e. wk Pk ; Tk ; Ck ) from 2011 to 2015 should be obtained rst by the veried SVR model. The inputs of SVR model include TP (i.e. Pk ), CLIR (i.e. Tk ) and GDP (i.e. Ck ); while the output is the amount of waste generation wk .Fig. 2 illustrates the general framework of the TSOM. The modeling approach is based on the SVR prediction model and IMILP optimization technique. The solution algorithm of TSOM can then be summarized by using the following pseudocode:

Table 5 Solution for waste ow allocation pattern (Unit: t/day). Source Waste ow to landll Liyuan transfer station Yamenkou transfer station Yamenkou transfer station Yamenkou transfer station Xiaowuji transfer station Wuluju transfer station Majialou transfer station Datun transfer station Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Liulitun composting Fengtai composting Fengtai composting Fengtai composting Fengtai composting Fengtai composting Dongcun composting Shunyi incinerator Nangong incinerator Liulitun incinerator Asuwei incinerator Asuwei incinerator Waste ow to transfer station Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Waste ow to composting facility Majialou transfer station Majialou transfer station Liyuan transfer station Liyuan transfer station Xiaowuji transfer station Wuluju transfer station Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Waste ow to incinerator Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Urban districts Majialou transfer station Datun transfer station Datun transfer station Xiaowuji transfer station Treatment facility Yongning landll Dadushe landll Huairou landll Liulitun landll Wangzuo landll Liulitun landll Wangzuo landll Gaoantun landll Anding landll Dadushe landll Liulitun landll Jiaojiapo landll Wangzuo landll Dongnanzhao landll Asuwei landll Yongning landll Dadushe landll Huairou landll Zhaitang landll Dongnanzhao landll Wangzuo landll Wangzuo landll Yongning landll Liulitun landll Dadushe landll Gaoantun landll Yamenkou transfer station Wuluju transfer station Majialou transfer station Xiaowuji transfer station Datun transfer station Liyuan transfer station Gaoantun composting Miyun composting Dongcun composting Miyun composting Liulitun composting Gaoantun composting Liulitun composting Xitianyang composting Dongcun composting Gaoantun composting Asuwei composting Nangong composting Asuwei incinerator Liulitun incinerator Nangong incinerator Gaoantun incinerator Fangshan incinerator Shunyi incinerator Asuwei incinerator Liulitun incinerator Gaoantun incinerator Period 1 [218.8, 252.4] [95.3, 152.3] [0, 63.2] [484.8, 520.1] [591.7, 603.6] [47.9, 200] [0, 26.6] [0, 83.9] [192.9, 201.5] [125.8, 127] [170.8, 447.8] [291.6, 297.8] [1143.2, 1150.3] [1113.4, 1138.4] [161.4, 190.6] [30.1, 37.2] [197.8, 229.2] [163.7, 196.7] 0 [256.4, 286.2] [240.1, 280] [133.6, 156.2] 0 [126.5, 149] [216, 251.5] 0 [275, 300] [825, 1006.6] 751.9 [539, 588] [825, 900] [550, 600] [158, 162.3] 0 0 [650.2, 678.4] [124.4, 134.3] [176.6, 184.2] [671, 695.4] [992.3, 1007.5] [883.2, 886] 0 0 [693.8, 720.5] 0 [687.7, 687.8] [285.1, 288.7] [1131.2, 1162.6] 0 [433.3, 441.5] 0 0 0 Period 2 [223.7, 257.2] [169.3, 233.6] [0, 34.1] [286.1, 292.4] [722.2, 745.7] [0, 203] [0, 26.7] [0, 76.1] [247.4, 253.2] [201, 203.6] [270.5, 531.6] [286.7, 289.9] [964.5, 975.2] [197.2, 202.3] [137.4, 165.2] [228.8, 287.9] [169.1, 195.6] [138.4, 171.7] [178.8, 222.6] [217.3, 256.3] [203.9, 243.2] [104.4, 132.9] 0 [98.8, 126.7] [170.7, 208.6] 0 [300, 325] [1145.3, 1397.6] 980 [588, 637] [900, 975] [600, 650] 0 [664.3, 701.1] [270.3, 274.8] 0 [568.8, 621] 0 [721, 737] [1062.3, 1066.6] [1132.2, 1178.8] [868.3, 878.4] [621.3, 646.9] [743.8, 770] 0 [737.7, 760.6] [325.7, 331.4] [1211.2, 1254.2] 0 [442.7, 479.9] 0 0 0 Period 3 [357.8, 376.1] [0, 249.4] [0, 164.6] [259, 270.1] [692.8, 742.6] 0 0 [176.8, 196.6] [242.6, 252] [253, 262.8] [282.3, 367.8] [152.6, 153.4] [948.5, 972.6] [558.5, 562.5] [120.6, 147.5] [200.9, 253.5] [149, 182.5] [120.7, 155.5] [194.8, 257.9] [190.4, 229.8] [178.8, 221.2] [126.8, 167.4] [55, 70] [103.8, 142.3] [183.4, 235.2] [43.2, 84.3] 500 1500 980 [641.8, 980] 1500 [650, 883.2] 0 [746.9, 803.7] [460.6, 498.2] [138.5, 150.2] [426.4, 445.2] 0 [751, 759.9] [1104.3, 1117.3] [1175.7, 1226.4] [765.8, 797.4] [811.8, 841.3] [773.8, 805.7] [510.3, 518.5] [998, 1041.6] [737.6, 742.9] [1652.7, 1719.9] [0, 171.2] [460.1, 507.4] [0, 4.7] [389.3, 437.8] [0, 5.2]

3032

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037

a
Study area

[1.18, 1.21] [1.37, 1.51] [1.11, 1.23] Transfer station

Composting [0.40, 0.42] [0.38, 0.45] [0.53, 0.69]

[0.77, 0.78] [0.16, 0.17] Incinerator [0.17, 0.20]

Landfill

k, respectively; n denotes the interval time; a, b, and c are the growth rate of TP, GDP and CLIR respectively. Step 5: Predict the time series of annual waste generation (i.e. ^ wk ) from 2011 to 2015 via the veried SVR model, where the calculated data points of TP, GDP and CLIR from 2011 to 2015 are the testing sets and the data points of TP, GDP, CLIR and waste generation from 1979 to 2008 are the training sets; ^ Step 6: Input the prediction results of waste generation (i.e. wk ) from 2011 to 2015 within model (6); Step 7: Transform model (6) into two sub-models corresponding to the best and worst objective-function values; Step 8: Solve the two sub-models; Step 9: Obtain the solution of the TSOM and get the optimal waste ow allocation pattern and facility capacity expansion scheme.

Study area

[3.76, 3.85] [3.29, 3.62] [1.58, 1.79] Transfer station

Composting [1.10, 1.17] [0.93, 1.13] [1.02, 1.36]

4. Results and discussion 4.1. Waste generation prediction The goal of SVR model is to extract as much information as possible from the historical data, for indentifying an appropriate regression relationship between TP, CLIR, GDP and waste generation. In the process of deciding the SVR parameters and choosing the type of kernel function, the data points from 1979 to 2003 are the training sets, while the data points from 2004 to 2008 can be regarded as the testing sets of SVR model. SVR with linear kernel (SVR1), SVR with polynomial kernel (SVR2), SVR with radial basis function (SVR3) and SVR with multi-layer perception function (SVR4) were considered as the alternative destination according to their tting and generalization ability. Fig. 3 shows the contour of cross-validation mean square error (MSE). It indicates the grid-search processes of n-fold cross-validation approach for determining the parameters (i.e. C and e) of the SVR3 model. When the value of cross-validation MSE achieves the minimum point, the value of parameters C and e would equal 8 and 0.25, respectively. Fig. 4 presents the outputs for annual waste generation under the above four SVR models from 1979 to 2008. In this study, three kinds of accuracy criteria (i.e. GA, FA, and OA) were used to assess the performance of the four SVR models, and the corresponding SVR parameters searched by the grid-search method. The PA, FA and OA values of SVR1 model are 78.10%, 82.24% and 81.55% with parameters C and e being 24 and 21, respectively; the PA, FA and OA values of SVR2 model are 96.92%, 97.48% and 97.39% with parameters C, e and d being 23, 22 and 2, respectively; the PA, FA and OA values of SVR3 model are 66.63%, 99.11% and 93.69% with parameters C, e and s being 23, 22 and 0.25; the PA, FA and OA values of SVR4 model are 46.15%, 41.05% and 41.90% with parameters C, e and b being 22, 23 and 1, respectively. The results indicate that (i) the order of PA is SVR2 > SVR1 > SVR3 > SVR4, (ii) the order of FA is SVR3 > SVR2 > SVR1 > SVR4, and (iii) the order of OA is SVR2 > SVR3 > SVR1 > SVR4. In general, the strong and robust generalization ability and tting ability associated with the high PA and FA, respectively; the higher OA represents the stronger comprehensive ability over all time periods (both training and testing). SVR3 model has a high tting accuracy but low prediction accuracy due to its disadvantage of overtting. SVR2 model can not only avoids overtting but also interprets the complex nonlinear waste generation patterns with scoring well above 96% in the three accuracy measures. Therefore, SVR2 model has the best predicting performance in comparison with the other SVR-kernel models. Table 4 shows the results of waste generation amount from 2011 to 2015. The amount of MSW will exceed 10 million tonne at the end of 2014.

[1.66, 1.71] [0.32, 0.35] Incinerator [0.27, 0.34]

Landfill

Study area

[3.93, 4.05] [4.21, 4.63] [1.78, 1.88] Transfer station

Composting [1.29, 1.39] [0.84, 1.06] [1.09, 1.46]

[2.85, 3.06] [0.62, 0.70] Incinerator [0.37, 0.51]

Landfill

Fig. 5. Total waste ow consumed by the MSW management facilities during (a) period 1, (b) period 2 and (c) period 3 (Unit: million tonne).

Step 1: Use statistics methods of normalization for original data matrix of w (waste generation) and {s1, s2,., sz} constructed by the time series of TP, GDP and CLIR; Step 2: Make a division for the training sets and testing sets; Step 3: Employ a grid-search in the n-fold cross-validation approach illustrated in Section 2 for selecting the SVR parameters; meanwhile, determining the most suitable kernel function by judging the three quantitative simulation performance criteria. Step 4: Calculate the data point of TP, GDP and CLIR from 2011 to 2015 by the general formulas of geometric series: Pk 1 an Pkn , Tk 1 bn Tkn and Ck 1 cn Ckn , where Pk , Tk and Ck are the TP, CLIR, GDP in Beijing during period

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037

3033

Fig. 6. Capacity planning for (a) composting facility and (b) incinerators.

4.2. Results of planning MSW management Table 5 shows the solution of optimized waste ow allocation through the TSOM under case 1 (i.e. 20%, 40% and 60% of diversion rates were carried out in periods 1, 2 and 3, respectively). Fig. 5 presents the total waste ows treated by facilities in each period. The results indicate that there would be [10.08, 12.10] 106 t of waste ows (including residues) allocated to the landll; in comparison, [11.67, 12.08] 106 and [6.38, 6.76] 106 t of waste
Table 6 Waste generation, landll-capacity consumption under the different growth rates. Growth rate (%) TP 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 GDP 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.26 0.26 0.26 CLIR 0.05 0.2 0.35 0.05 0.2 0.35 0.05 0.2 0.35 0.05 0.2 0.35 0.05 0.2 0.35 0.05 0.2 0.35 0.05 0.2 0.35 0.05 0.2 0.35 0.05 0.2 0.35

ows would respectively be treated by the composting facilities and incinerators based on the waste management policy (i.e. waste diversion requirement) as required by the authorities. The amount of waste allocated to transfer stations to be pre-treated would be [8.88, 9.77] 106 t, occupying approximately [30.28, 35.53] % of the total waste amount. The rate of waste shipped to the transfer stations is low since the current capacity of transfer stations is insufcient. Fig. 6 shows the capacity planning for composting facilities and incinerators under case 1. The results indicate Liulitun, Xitianyang,

Waste generation amounts (million tonne) Period 1 [3.21, 3.42] [3.32, 3.54] [3.40, 3.62] [3.29, 3.51] [3.39, 3.62] [3.45, 3.68] [3.37, 3.59] [3.46, 3.69] [3.49, 3.72] [3.82, 4.08] [4.15, 4.43] [4.05, 4.32] [3.83, 4.09] [3.94, 4.21] [4.05, 4.32] [3.87, 4.13] [3.99, 4.26] [4.13, 4.41] [4.11, 4.39] [4.74, 5.06] [4.81, 5.13] [4.11, 4.38] [5.08, 5.42] [5.20, 5.55] [4.15, 4.42] [5.19, 5.53] [5.28, 5.63] Period 2 [6.40, 6.82] [6.75, 7.20] [6.88, 7.34] [6.64, 7.08] [6.98, 7.44] [7.03, 7.50] [6.83, 7.29] [7.13, 7.61] [7.14, 7.61] [8.16, 8.70] [9.36, 9.98] [9.01, 9.62] [8.23, 8.77] [8.68, 9.26] [9.13, 9.74] [8.35, 8.91] [8.83, 9.42] [9.39, 10.01] [9.13, 9.74] [11.50, 12.26] [11.77, 12.56] [9.16, 9.77] [12.98, 13.84] [13.40, 14.29] [9.28, 9.90] [13.41, 14.30] [13.86, 14.79] Period 3 [6.64, 7.08] [7.18, 7.66] [7.12, 7.59] [6.97, 7.44] [7.50, 8.00] [7.34, 7.83] [7.16, 7.63] [7.63, 8.13] [7.44, 7.93] [8.93, 9.53] [11.22, 11.97] [10.64, 11.35] [9.16, 9.77] [10.15, 10.83] [11.20, 11.95] [9.34, 9.96] [10.35, 11.04] [11.56, 12.33] [10.57, 11.28] [15.19, 16.20] [15.85, 16.91] [10.75, 11.46] [18.71, 19.95] [19.37, 20.67] [10.91, 11.64] [19.64, 20.95] [21.01, 22.41]

Total landll consumed (million tonne)

[7.31, 8.47] [7.65, 8.95] [7.58, 8.90] [7.55, 8.86] [7.70, 9.05] [7.73, 9.08] [7.54, 8.86] [7.66, 9.04] [7.65, 9.04] [8.45, 10.01] [9.37, 11.19] [9.27, 11.03] [8.63, 10.25] [9.23, 10.92] [9.32, 11.11] [8.79, 10.41] [9.23, 10.94] [9.39, 11.23] [9.30, 11.05] [12.64, 14.83] [13.1, 15.52] [9.31, 11.08] [14.31, 17.17] [15.02, 17.32] [9.35, 11.14] [15.27, 17.45] [15.61, 17.92]

3034

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037

Fig. 7. Total system costs under different growth rate of GDP, CLIR and TP with (a) 2%, (b) 1.5% and (c) 5%.

Dongcun and Nangong composting should be expanded by an amount of [289, 846] t/day at the start of each period, with 70% of the capacity (i.e., [200, 600] t/day) being dedicated to the residential waste. Thus, those composting facilities capacity for residential wastes would eventually be increased to [1400, 2600], [1600, 2800], [1650, 2850] and [1000, 2200] tonne/day, respectively. However, No expansion would occur for Miyun and Huairou composting facilities during the planning horizon. Liulitun

incinerator should be expanded by an amount of [428, 1000] t/day at the start of period 2 and period 3 (and thus [300, 700] t/day for residential waste), whereas no expansion would occur at the beginning of period 1. Thus, the incinerator capacity for residential wastes would eventually be increased to [1600, 2400] t/day. The resulting system cost obtained under case 1 would be $[1.23, 1.48] 109, which is associated with a total landll capacity consumption of [10.08, 12.10] 106 t and 60% diversion goal at the

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037 Table 7 Comparison of waste ow pattern, system cost, capacity expansion, capacity consumption and waste diversion rate. Case 1 Lower Waste ow allocation (106 t) To transfer station To composting To incinerator To landll System cost ($106) For landll For composting For incinerator For transfer station Capacity expansion (103 t/day) For composting For incinerator Capacity consumption (106 t) For landll Waste diversion rate (%) To landll Upper Case 2 Lower Upper

3035

8.88 8.87 5.27 4.47 1224.66 246.30 371.79 242.76 363.81

9.77 9.11 5.56 4.90 1477.24 305.14 435.71 292.84 443.55

8.88 8.82 4.59 5.20 1218.44 287.34 375.15 192.14 363.81

9.77 9.06 4.72 5.78 1460.72 354.92 438.14 224.11 443.55

4.1 1.7

11.8 4.0

2.3 1.1

4.8 2.0

growth rates of TP, GDP and CLIR are 3.5%, 26% and 35% respectively, the waste generation in study area, landll-capacity consumption and system costs would be [40.15, 42.83] 106 t, [15.61, 17.92] 106 t and $ [1.89, 2.25] 109 in the whole planning periods, respectively. The results indicate that the higher growth rates of TP, GDP and CLIR would yield more waste generation amount, which would result in more landll-capacity consumption and system costs. There are many factors which can inuence the prediction results of waste generation except for the three factors including TP, CLIR and GDP in the study. The results indicate that when the TP decreases 1%, the system cost could reduce with $ [0.37, 049] 108; when the GDP decreases 1%, the system cost could be cut down by $ [0.05, 0.06] 108; when the CLIR decreases 1%, the system cost could be cut down by $ [0.02, 0.03] 108. Therefore, although the CLIR growth rate is about 4 times higher the TP growth rate, much more cost could be saved when the TP decreases 1%. Controlling the population of Beijing is the most important factor for reducing waste generation rate and disposal cost. 4.4. Waste diversion analysis

10.08 40%

12.10

10.99 90%

13.18

end of the planning horizon. The system cost includes expenses for handling waste ows, and expansions/developments of composting facilities and incinerators. The results indicate that the cost for facility expansions would be $[12.5, 26.2] 106 (or [0.8, 2.1] % of the total system cost); the regular cost for collection waste ows would be $[33.8, 53.4] 106 (or [2.3, 4.3] % of the total system cost); the regular cost for diverting waste ows would be $[601.8, 740.1] 106 (or [40.7, 60.2] % of the total system cost); the operation cost for disposing of waste ows would be $[790.6, 894.3] 106 (or [53.4, 72.7] % of the total system cost); the revenue from composting facilities and incinerators would be $[208.7, 234.0] 106 (or [14.1, 19.0] % of the total system cost). In addition, the cost for waste landlling would be $[264.3, 305.1] 106 (or [16.9, 25.2] % of the total system cost); the costs for waste composting facility and incinerator would be $[371.8, 435.7] 106 (or [24.3, 34.1] % of the total system cost) and $[242.8, 292.8] 106 (or [16.2, 22.8] % of the total system cost), respectively. In general, approximately 40.5%e 56.9% of the total system cost would be used for waste diversion. 4.3. Sensitivity analysis In this study, sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the effects of different input factors (i.e. TP, GDP and CLIR) on the system cost and landll-capacity consumption. The statistic results of growth rates of TP, GDP and CLIR indicate that their uctuation intervals are mainly limited in [-2, 5]%, [10, 26]% and [5, 35]% based on the lowerand upper- adjacent order statistic. Each of growth rates of TP, GDP and CLIR can be designed to vary conspicuously under the three conditions. For example, growth rate of GDP may equal 10% (low), 20% (medium) or 35% (high). Therefore, TP, GDP and CLIR have 27 combinations (i.e. 3 3 3 27) and TSOM model can generation 27 kinds of optimal schemes for planning waste management. Table 6 shows waste generation, landll-capacity consumption under the different growth rates of TP, GDP and CLIR. Fig. 7 presents the impact of TP, GDP and CLIR toward the system costs. When the growth rates of TP, GDP and CLIR are 2.0%, 10% and 5% respectively, the waste generation in the study area, landll-capacity consumption and the system costs would be [16.25, 17.32] 106 t, [7.31, 8.47] 106 t and $ [0.72, 0.86] 109. When the

In this study, the effects of waste diversion goal on the waste management cost and facility expansion were examined (i.e. case 2). In case 2, the citys waste management practices are based on the existing policy over the next 5 years, where 6% of waste streams can be disposed of by composting facilities and incinerator programs divert about 4% of the wastes. Table 7 shows a comparison of waste ow allocation pattern, system cost, capacity expansion, capacity consumption and waste diversion rate under the two cases. Under case 1, the net system cost would be $[1224.66, 1477.24] 106 associated with a total landll capacity consumption of [10.08, 12.10] 106 t and 60% diversion goal. In comparison, case 2 corresponds to a lower system cost (i.e. $[1218.43, 1460.71] 106), a higher landll-capacity consumption level (i.e. [10.99, 13.18] 106 t), and a lower diversion rate (i.e. 10%). In addition, different policies for waste diversion would lead to varied expansion schemes for waste management facilities. Under case 1, all composting facilities and incinerators would totally be expanded by an increment of [4.1, 11.8] 103 and [1.7, 4.0] 103 t/ day during the planning horizon. In comparison, case 2 corresponds to a lower capacity expansion for composting facilities and incinerators (i.e. [2.3, 4.8] 103 and [1.1, 2.0] 103 t/day, respectively). When the waste diversion rates are considered to be increased, the capacity of composting facility and incinerator would be of importance. The results also indicate that the waste follow allocated to landlls in case 1 would be less than that in case 2. Therefore, the lifespan of landlls would be prolonged based on the waste diversion policy regulated in case 1. 5. Conclusions In this study, support-vector-regression (SVR) model is introduced into an interval-parameter mixed integer linear programming (IMILP) framework, leading to a two-stage support-vectorregression optimization model (TSOM). The SVR technique is used for predicting waste generation rate as the input of optimization model; while the IMILP approach can be used for planning the waste ow allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes under uncertainty. Three special contributions in the study make it unique compared with the SVR model that handles solid waste problems. Firstly, SVR model with the best kernel function is selected among the four kinds of common kernel function for predicting the waste generation rate in Beijing. Secondly, the proposed TSOM provides a linkage between SVR model and optimization techniques, which can not only predict the waste

3036

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037

XTItik XTCtck

generation rate, but also reect dynamic, interactive, and uncertain characteristics of the solid waste management system. Thirdly, TSOM can help identify the effects of several critical factors (e.g., population, consumption, and economy) on waste generation rate as well as waste management practice. The TSOM has been applied to the planning of MSW management in the urban districts of Beijing, China. Firstly, SVR model with polynomial kernel function can predict the waste generation with higher prediction accuracy. The prediction results indicate the waste generation would be accelerated increasing and exceed 10 million tonne by the end of 2014. Secondly, the solution results of sensitive analysis indicate that controlling the population of Beijing is one of the most important factors that could help reduce the pressure from the MSW. Thirdly, two cases have been examined based on different waste diversion policies. Reasonable solutions have been generated, demonstrating complex tradeoffs among system cost, remaining landll-capacity, and facility capacity expansion. Owing to the data required was insufcient for reecting the complex nature of waste management system of the whole the Municipality of Beijing, the study area selected is the Beijings main urban districts. Therefore, increasing the data sets through further investigation and verication would help study the whole municipality. Although SVR model can still be regarded as a parsimonious alternative to complex articial neural networks forecasting, future studies on determining suitable SVR parameters are desired. The capacity of the trucks can inuence the transportation costs. If the larger capacity trucks are used to serve the study area, more uncertainties may exist in the transportation costs. These uncertainties generated by the capacity of the trucks may lead to a more complex MSW management system. It is an interesting idea for future studies. In general, the results suggest that the proposed TSOM be applicable to environmental practical problems that are associated with more complex uncertainties, through incorporating fuzzy and stochastic analysis methods within its framework. Acknowledgments This research was supported by the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (NCET-10-0376) and the Major Science and Technology Program for Water Pollution Control and Treatment (2009ZX07104-004). The authors are grateful to the editors and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions. Appendix

YCL clk YIL ilk DUTt

DUCc

DUIi DUL l DTCtc

DTIti DTL tl DCL cl DIL il TR k ColCk OTtk OL lk OIik OCck

LCl
TCt

ICi CCc
RCck RIik RTtk Pk Tk

Ck
GTk GIk GCk

f Lk t c i l k XUTtk
XUCck XUIik

XUL lk XTL tlk

the net system cost ($) the length of period k (day) transfer station, t 1, 2, . 6 composting facility, c 1, 2, . 9 incinerator, i 1, 2, . 6 landll, l 1, 2, . 16 planning period, k 1, 2, 3 waste ow from study area to transfer station t during period k (t/day) waste ow from study area to composting facility c during period k (t/day) waste ow from study area to incinerator i during period k (/day) waste ow from study area to landll l during period k (t/day) waste ow from transfer station t to landll l during period k (t/day)

d l k i z c
FTtk FCck FIik BCEcek BIFifk

waste ow from transfer station t to incinerator i during period k (t/day) waste ow from transfer station t to composting facility c during period k (t/day) residue waste generated in composting facility c to landll l during period k (t/day) residue waste generated in incinerator i to landll l during period k (t/day) the average distances from study area to transfer station t (km) the average distances from study area to composting facility c (km) the average distances from study area to incinerator i (km) the average distances from study area to landll l (km) the distances from transfer station t to composting facility c (km) the distances from transfer station t to incinerator i (km) the distances from transfer station t to landll l (km) the distances from composting facility c to landll l (km) the distances from incinerator i to landll l (km) trafc expense during period k ($/km t) collection cost during period k ($/t) operating costs of transfer station t during period k ($/t) operating costs of landll l during period k ($/t) operating costs of incinerator i during period k ($/t) operating costs of composting facility c during period k ($/t) the capacity of landll l at the beginning of planning period (t) the capacity of transfer station t at the beginning of planning period (t/day) the capacity of incinerator i during period k (t/day) the capacity of composting facility c during period k (t/ day) the revenue of composting facility c during period k ($/t) the revenue of incinerator facility i during period k ($/t) the revenue of transfer station t during period k ($/t) the total population in Beijing during period k (million) the consumption level of individual residents in Beijing during period k ($) the gross domestic product in Beijing during period k (billion $) the diversion rate of waste ow to transfer station t regulated by the Citys authority during period k (%) the diversion rate of waste ow to incinerator i regulated by the Citys authority during period k (%) the diversion rate of waste ow to composting facility c regulated by the Citys authority during period k (%) the capacity rate of landll l for urban districts (% of the whole capacity) the capacity rate of incinerator i for urban districts (% of the whole capacity) the capacity rate of composting facility c for urban districts (% of the whole capacity) the residue MSW rates (% of incoming mass to the transfer station t) the residue MSW rates (% of incoming mass to the composting facility c) the residue MSW rates (% of incoming mass to the incinerator i) the binary decision variable for composting facility c with expansion option e at the start of period k the binary decision variable for incinerator i with expansion option f at the start of period k

C. Dai et al. / Journal of Environmental Management 92 (2011) 3023e3037

3037

the capital cost of expanding composting facility c by option e in period k ($/t) the capital cost of expanding incinerator i by option f in EIFifk period k ($/t) ^ wk Pk ; Tk ; Ck the amount of waste generated in whole Beijing during period k (t) ^ a wk Pk ; Tk ; Ck the waste ow generated in urban districts during k period k (t) a the proportion of the waste ow generated in urban k districts accounted for that generated in Beijing during period k DCCEcek the amount of capacity expansion option e for composting facility c at the start of period k (t/day) DCIFifk the amount of capacity expansion option f for incinerator i at the start of period k (t/day)

ECEcek

References
Agrawal, M., Jade, A.M., Jayaraman, V.K., Kulkarni, B.D., 2003. Support vector machines: a useful tool for process engineering applications. Chemical Engineering Progress 99, 57e62. BMAC, 2007. Beijing 11th Five-Year Plan Period Environmental and Sanitation Planning. Beijing Municipal Administration Commission (in Chinese). BMAC, 2009. Beijing Environmental Sanitation Development Report. Beijing Municipal Administration Commission (in Chinese). BMBS, 1980-2009. Beijing Statistical Yearbook. Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics (in Chinese). BMSWM, 2010. Beijing Municipal Solid Waste Management. http://www. solidwaste.com.cn/report/beijinglaji20060419/2010sheshi.htm. Campbell, C., 2002. Kernel methods: a survey of current techniques. Neurocomputing 48, 63e84. Chang, Y.H., Chang, N.B., 1998. Optimization analysis for the development of short team solid waste management strategies using presorting process prior to incinerators. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 24, 7e32. Chapelle, O., Vapnik, V., 1999. Model selection for support vector machines. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems. Chen, K.Y., Wang, C.H., 2007. Support vector regression with genetic algorithms in forecasting tourism demand. Tourism Management 28, 215e226. Cherkassky, V., Ma, Y., 2004. Practical selection of SVM parameters and noise estimation for SVM regression. Neural Networks 17, 113e126. Dyson, B., Chang, N.B., 2005. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fastgrowing urban region with system dynamics modeling. Waste Management 25, 669e679. Guo, P., Huang, G.H., 2009. Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste managementePart A: methodology. Journal of Environmental Management 91, 461e470. Huang, G.H., Baetz, B.W., Patry, G.G., 1995. Grey integer programming: an application to waste management planning under uncertainty. European Journal of Operational Research 83, 594e620. Huang, G.H., Chi, G.F., Li, Y.P., 2005. Long-term planning of an integrated solid waste management system under uncertainty. Environmental Engineering Science 22, 835e853. Huang, Q., Cheng, S.Y., Li, Y.P., Li, J.B., Chen, D.S., Wang, H.Y., 2010. An integrated MM5-CAMx modeling approach for assessing PM10 contribution from different sources in Beijing, China. Journal of Environmental Informatics 15 (2), 47e61. Jalili Ghazi Zade, M., Noori, R., 2008. Prediction of municipal solid waste generation by use of articial neural network: a case study of Mashhad. International Journal of Environmental Research 2, 13e22. Karaca, F., zkaya, B., 2006. NN-LEAP: a neural network-based model for controlling leachate ow-rate in a municipal solid waste landll site. Environmental Modelling and Software 21, 1190e1197. Kulkarni, A., Jayaraman, V.K., Kulkarni, B.D., 2004. Support vector classication with parameter tuning assisted by agent-based technique. Computers & Chemical Engineering 28, 311e318. Levis, A.A., Papageorgiou, L.G., 2005. Customer demand forecasting via support vector regression analysis. Chemical Engineering Research and Design 83, 1009e1018. Li, Y.P., Huang, G.H., 2006. An inexact two-stage mixed integer linear programming method for solid waste management in the City of Regina. Journal of Environmental Management 81, 188e209. Li, Y.P., Huang, G.H., 2008. Inexact minimax regret integer programming for longterm planning of municipal solid waste managementdpart B: application. Environmental Engineering Science 26, 219e234. Li, Z., Yang, L., Qu, X., Sui, Y., 2009. Municipal solid waste management in Beijing City. Waste Management 29, 2596e2599. Li, Y.P., Huang, G.H., Zhang, N., Mo, D.W., Nie, S.L., 2010. ISIP: capacity planning for ood management systems under uncertainty. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems 27, 33e52.

Lin, C.J., Hsu, C.W., Chang, C.C., 2003. A Practical Guide to Support Vector Classication, Technical Report. Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, National Taiwan University. Lin, G.F., Chen, G.R., Huang, P.Y., Chou, Y.C., 2009. Support vector machine-based models for hourly reservoir inow forecasting during typhoon-warning periods. Journal of Hydrology 372, 17e29. Liu, H., Yao, X., Zhang, R., Liu, M., Hu, Z., Fan, B., 2006. The accurate QSPR models to predict the bioconcentration factors of nonionic organic compounds based on the heuristic method and support vector machine. Chemosphere 63, 722e733. Lu, W., Wang, W., 2005. Potential assessment of the support vector machine method in forecasting ambient air pollutant trends. Chemosphere 59, 693e701. Lv, Y., Huang, G.H., Li, Y.P., Yang, Z.F., Liu, Y., Cheng, G.H., 2010. Planning Regional Water Resources System Using an Interval Fuzzy Bi-Level Programming Method. Journal of Environmental Informatics 16 (2), 43e56. Marin, S.P., 1984. An approach to data parameterization in parametric cubic spline interpolation problems. Journal of Approximation Theory 41, 64e86. Min, J.H., Lee, Y.C., 2005. Bankruptcy prediction using support vector machine with optimal choice of kernel function parameters. Expert Systems with Applications 28, 603e614. Noori, R., Abdoli, M.A., Ghasrodashti, A.A., Ghazizade, M.J., 2009a. Prediction of municipal solid waste generation with combination of support vector machine and principal component analysis: a case study of Mashhad. Environmental Progress & Sustainable Energy 28, 249e258. Noori, R., Abdoli, M.A., Jalili-Ghazizade, M., Samifard, R., 2009b. Comparison of ANN and PCA based multivariate linear regression applied to predict the weekly municipal solid waste generation in Tehran. Iranian Journal of Public Health 38, 74e84. Noori, R., Abdoli, M.A., Farokhnia, A., Abbasi, M., 2009c. Results uncertainty of solid waste generation forecasting by hybrid of wavelet transform-ANFIS and wavelet transform-neural network. Expert Systems with Applications 36, 9991e9999. Noori, R., Karbassi, A.R., Farokhnia, A., Dehghani, M., 2009d. Predicting the longitudinal dispersion coefcient using support vector machine and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system techniques. Environmental Engineering Science 26, 1503e1510. Noori, R., Karbassi, A.R., Sabahi, M.S., 2010. Evaluation of PCA and Gamma test techniques on ANN operation for weekly solid waste prediction. Journal of Environmental Management 91, 767e771. Noori, R., Karbassi, A.R., Moghaddamnia, A., Han, D., Zokaei-Ashtiani, M.H., Farokhnia, A., Ghafari Gousheh, M., 2011. Assessment of input variables determination on the SVM model performance using PCA, Gamma test, and forward selection techniques for monthly stream ow prediction. Journal of Hydrology. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.021. Or, I., Curi, K., 1993. Improving the efciency of the solid waste collection system in Izmir, Turkey, through mathematical programming. Waste Management & Research 11, 297e311. Riccardo, M., Massimo, P., Michela, R., Roberto, S., 2008. Multi-objective optimization of solid waste ows: environmentally sustainable strategies for municipalities. Waste Management 28, 2202e2212. Shu, H.Y., Lu, H.C., Fan, H.J., Chang, M.C., Chen, J.C., 2006. Prediction for energy content of Taiwan municipal solid waste using multilayer perceptron neural networks. Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 56, 852e858. Smola, A.J., Schlkopf, B., 2000. A tutorial on support vector regression. Statistics and Computing 14, 199e222. Sun, W., Huang, G.H., 2010. Inexact piecewise quadratic programming for waste ow allocation under uncertainty and nonlinearity. Journal of Environmental Informatics 16, 80e93. Tan, Q., Huang, G.H., Cai, Y.P., 2009. Waste management with recourse: an inexact dynamic programming model containing fuzzy boundary intervals in objectives and constraints. Journal of Environmental Management 91, 1898e1913. Wu, C.H., Ken, Y., Huang, T., 2009. Patent classication system using a new hybrid genetic algorithm support vector machine. Applied Soft Computing 10, 1164e1177. Vapnik, V.N., 1995. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Springer-Verlag. Vapnik, V.N., 1998. Statistical Learning Theory. John Wiley & Sons, New York. Vapnik, V.N., 1999. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, second ed. Springer, Berlin. Wang, J., Liu, Z., Lu, P., 2008. Electricity Load Forecasting Using Rough Set Attribute Reduction Algorithm Based on Immune Genetic Algorithm and Support Vector Machines, 2008 International Conference on Risk Management & Engineering Management, PP. 239e244. Xi, B.D., Su, J., Huang, G.H., Qin, X.S., Jiang, Y.H., Huo, S.L., Ji, D.F., Yao, B., 2010. An integrated optimization approach and multi-criteria decision analysis for supporting the waste-management system of the City of Beijing, China. Engineering Applications of Articial Intelligence 23, 620e631. Xu, Y., Huang, G.H., Qin, X.S., Huang, Y., 2009. SRFILP: a stochastic robust fuzzy interval linear programming model for municipal solid waste management under uncertainty. Journal of Environmental Informatics 14, 72e82. Yan, X.P., Ma, X.F., Huang, G.H., Wu, C.Z., 2010. An Inexact Transportation Planning Model for Supporting Vehicle Emissions Management. Journal of Environmental Informatics 15 (2), 87e98. Zhao, W., Voet, E.V.D., Zhang, Y., Huppes, G., 2009. Life cycle assessment of municipal solid waste management with regard to greenhouse gas emissions: case study of Tianjin, China. Science of the Total Environment 407, 1517e1526.