Newspaper extinction timeline

When newspapers in their current form will become insignificant*

USA 2017 UK, Iceland 2019 Canada, Norway 2020 Finland, Singapore, Greenland 2021 Australia, Hong Kong 2022 Denmark 2023 New Zealand, Spain, Czech, Taiwan 2024 Poland, Sweden, Switzerland 2025 South Korea, Metro Russia, Belgium 2026 Netherlands, Ireland, Metro Brazil, Italy 2027 Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, U.A.E. 2028 France, Israel, Malaysia, Croatia 2029 Germany, Estonia 2030 Japan, Metro China 2031 Hungary, Lithuania 2032 Latvia, Metro Mexico 2033 Serbia, Saudi Arabia 2034 Bulgaria, Chile, Uruguay 2035 Russia, Turkey 2036 Metro South Africa, Thailand 2037 Mongolia 2038 Argentina 2039
stripes indicate that newspapers will be extinct in metropolitan areas before regional areas

Rest of the world 2040+

Created by Ross Dawson
Published under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.5 licence

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Newspaper extinction timeline: key factors

Increased cost performance of mobile phones
Technology uptake
Fixed bandwidth availability and costs Mobile bandwidth availability and costs Smartphone and e-reader penetration

Economic development
Economic growth rate Wealth inequality Urban/ regional wealth disparity

Industry structure
Financial position of leading newspapers Balance of advertising and print sales revenue Newspaper distribution structures

Increased cost performance of tablets/ e-readers

Development of high performance digital paper

Changes in newsprint and print production costs

GLOBAL

Uptake of digital news monetization mechanisms

NATIONAL

Demographics

Government
Degree of regulation Government financial support for media Censorship and obstruction

Consumer behaviors
Media channel preferences Willingness to pay for news Relative interest in local and global news

Trends in advertising spend and allocation

Development of open platforms

Age structure, birth rates, and immigration Degree of urbanization Increase in literacy

* Notes to the timeline

This schedule for newspaper extinction shows best estimates given current trends. The timeline is intended to highlight the diversity of global media markets and stimulate useful strategic conversations. Newspapers in their current form becoming insignificant is not the same as the death of news-on-paper, which will continue in a variety of forms. Ways that newspaper publishers of today will succeed in the transition beyond newspapers in their current form include transitioning to other channels, providing personalized news-on-paper, and tapping niche markets.

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