I. BIN NG T GI NM 2010 T gi nm 2010 tn ti nhiu bt ng khng mong i.

Thng qua cc chnh sch ca ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam cng vi s bin ng ca vng v li sut, t gi nm 2010 theo m cng bin ng khin cho cc nh qun l, ngn hng, doanh nghip v ngi tiu dng nhiu phen chng mtVn t gi vn lm au u cc nh qun l nhiu nm nay. Tng kh mnh trong 2 nm 2008 v 2009, sang n thng 1/2010 t gi VND/USD gim nh, ng mc 18.479 ng/USD. S gim gi ny ca ng USD l do s tm thi d tha ngoi t, xut pht t cc nguyn nhn nh: ngun vn u t nc ngoi (c trc tip v gin tip, vn h tr pht trin chnh thc), kiu hi... tng. Bn cnh , cc tp on, tng cng ty ln ca nh nc bn ngoi t cho ngn hng. S d tha ny l kt qu ca hng lot chnh sch c NHNN t ban hnh. Ngy 11/2/2010, NHNN iu chnh tng t gi bnh qun lin ngn hng t mc 17.941 ng/USD ln mc 18.544 ng/USD nhm khuyn khch cc tp on, tng cng ty ln ca nh nc bn li ngoi t cho cc ngn hng, ci thin trng thi ngoi t vn ang cng thng. V hng lot cc chnh sch c ban hnh nhm gii quyt vn d tha ngoi t trong nhng thng cui nm 2009 nh: 18/1 NHNN c Quyt nh s 74/QNHNN gim mnh t l d tr bt buc bng ngoi t i vi cc t chc tn dngThng t s 03/2010/TT-NHNN, quy nh mc li sut tin gi ti a bng USD ca t chc kinh t ti t chc tn dng l 1%/nm, Bt ng u tin, ng ch ca th trng ngoi hi nm 2010 l vo ngy 28/4/2010 t gi trn th trng t do ln u tin thp hn mc t gi nim yt ca cc NHTM. V t gi do cc NHTM nim yt trong thi gian ny cng lun thp hn mc trn cho php ca NHNN, ng mc 18.950 - 18.970 ng/USD. Trc sc p ca th trng, thng 8/2010, NHNN buc phi tng t gi bnh qun lin ngn hng thm 2,1%, ln mc 18.932 ng/USD. Cui thng 11, t gi tng vt ln mc 21.380 - 21.450 ng/USD, trn th trng t do t gi vt qua mc 21.500 ng/USD. Chnh lch t gi gia th trng ch en so vi t gi chnh thc n 10%. y l mc chnh lch cao nht trong lch s ti chnh Vit Nam t nm 1990. Tuy nhin, cng bng m ni, t gi tng khng ch do tr ca chnh sch m cn do tc ng khng nh ca gi vng v li sut VND, v CPI (bt u tng tc t thng 9/2010). Ngy 9/11, gi vng (n theo gi vng th gii v chu tc ng tm l mnh ca ngi dn) cng t nh 38 triu ng/lng. Li sut VND th rp rnh tr li ngng 20%/nm ca nm 2008. S bt thng ca t gi cn cho thy sc mnh ca yu t tm l ngi dn. Bt chp s mt gi ca USD trn th gii, ngi dn, doanh nghip vn gm gi USD. Vic gm gi ny, xt trn gc kinh t, x hi l do tnh trng la ha ca Vit Nam ngy cng trm trng, hin khong 23%.

TS. L Xun Ngha, Ph ch tch y ban Gim st Ti chnh Quc gia cho rng, vn quan trng nht ca t gi hi oi khng nm s mt gi ca VND vi ng USD m l cch thc chng ta x l n th no. Nu phi hp ng b nhiu bin php, va can thip va iu chnh, va iu hnh li sut hp l, c bit l chnh lch li sut gia ng ni t v ngoi t th c th gii quyt vn ny trong qu I/2011. c bit, thi gian ti Chnh ph s c nhng bin php quyt lit lm gim chnh lch v n nh t gi hi oi.

Ngun ly t: www.dddn.com.vn Din n doanh nghip Biu : Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam (bi ny K t lm hi u nm 2011, cha c s liu nhiu v nhn nh ko bit ng ko, nn K ly mt bi na lm trn mng lm i chiu nha) Cc thng u nm 2010:

-Gi USD tng kh mnh trong 2 nm 2008 v 2009, sang n thng 1.2010 li gim nh v tip tc dao ng quanh mc 18.479 ng/USD cho n gia thng 2/2010.Nguyn nhn l do: Ngun cung USD c th s tng kh t cc ngun: T nc ngoi, lng USD vo nc ta s tng kh so vi nm trc, k c ngun vn u t trc tip (thc hin thng 1 tng 33,3%); Vn h tr pht trin chnh thc do nm trc cam kt, k kt t mc k lc; Vn u t gin tip khi cc nh u t nc ngoi lin tc mua rng trn th trng chng khon; Ngun kiu hi t Vit kiu v t lao ng lm vic nc ngoi gia tng; Ngun thu t khch quc t n Vit Nam gia tng tr li (thng 1 tng 20,4%); Kim ngch xut khu chuyn t tng trng m sang tng trng dng Bn cnh , cc tp on, tng cng ty ln ca Nh nc bn ngoi t cho ngn hng, sc p tm l gm gi USD do lo s ri ro t gi gim, chnh lch gia gi th trng t do vi gi nim yt trn th trng chnh thc gim ng k. Ngoi ra, t cui nm 2009 n nay, Ngn hng Nh nc c nhng gii php vt trc ngn chn vi nhiu ng thi gim sc p tng t gi, nh: Tng t gi lin ngn hng ng thi vi vic gim bin giao dch t 5% xung cn 3%; Yu cu cc tp on v tng cng ty ln ca nh nc bn li ngoi t cho ngn hng; Bn ngoi t cho cc ngn hng thng mi c trng thi di 5%; H 3% t l d tr bt buc i vi tin gi USD -T gia thng 2/2010 n nay : t gi tng v dao ng quanh mc 19.000 ng/USD (18.900-19.100 ng /USD) v ang c xu hng gim do nhng chnh sch tch cc t pha NHNN. Ngy 11/02 Ngn hng Nh nc iu chnh tng t gi bnh qun lin ngn hng t mc 17.941 VN/USD ln mc 18.544 VN/USD. Nguyn nhn: Th nht, ngy 30/12/2009, vi ch o ca Th tng Chnh ph, Ngn hng Nh nc chnh thc ban hnh thng t hng dn vic cc tp on, tng cng ty ln ca Nh nc bn li ngoi t cho cc ngn hng. Vic bn li c thc hin kh nhanh sau v to mt ngun cung ng k, h tr cc ngn hng ci thin trng thi ngoi t vn cng thng trc .

Th hai, ch hn na thng sau , ngy 18/1/2010, Ngn hng Nh nc c Quyt nh s 74/Q-NHNN gim mnh t l d tr bt buc bng ngoi t i vi cc t chc tn dng. Vic gim t l d tr bt buc bng ngoi t t 7% xung 4% i vi k hn di 12 thng, t 3% xung 2% i vi k hn trn 12 thng lm tng ngun vn khong 500 triu USD (9.000 t ng) cho cc ngn hng thng mi cho vay trn th trng. Th ba, ngay sau , Ngn hng Nh nc tip tc ban hnh Thng t s 03/2010/TTNHNN, quy nh mc li sut tin gi ti a bng USD ca t chc kinh t ti t chc tn dng l 1%/nm. y c xem l mt c hch mnh khi nh hng trc tip n li ch ca cc t chc kinh t c tin gi bng USD, khi li sut trc c hng c t 4% 4,5%/nm. Quy nh ny c bnh lun l t cc t chc vo th t x, phi tnh ton li ch v xem xt bn li ngoi t, chuyn sang VND c li sut tin gi cao hn. Khp vi chnh sch ny, cc ngn hng thng mi ng lot tng gi USD mua vo thu ht ngun ngoi t tim nng ny. Th t, chnh lch li sut vay vn bng VND v USD ln khin cc doanh nghip cn nhc v dch chuyn sang vay USD. Li sut vay VND tng cao u nm 2010, ln t 15% - 17%, thm ch 18%/nm, trong khi li sut vay USD ch khong 6% - 9%/nm. Chnh lch ny khin mt b phn doanh nghip chn ng vng vay USD ri bn li ly vn VND, tng cung ngoi t cho th trng. Ngoi chnh lch li sut ln, la chn ny c h tr bi k vng t gi USD/VND s n nh, hoc ri ro bin ng khng qu ln trong k vay vn. Thc t, t gi USD/VND gn nh c nh k t thng 2 n nay. Thm vo , ngy 15/12/2009, Ngn hng Nh nc ban hnh Thng t s 25/2009/TTNHNN m rng i tng c vay vn bng ngoi t, c bit l cc i tng xut khu. Tc ng ny c dn chng tng trng tn dng bng ngoi t tng t bin ti 14,07% trong qu 1/2010, trong khi cng k nm ngoi gim 2,24%. Nhng tc ng chnh trn to s cng hng t lot chnh sch iu hnh vi din bin thc t th trng. V thi gian gn y, Ngn hng Nh nc lin tc pht i thng ip th trng ngoi hi c chuyn bin tch cc. Bo co mi nht ca Ngn hng Nh nc cho bit: Cc doanh nghip bn ngoi t cho h thng ngn hng thng mi, tnh thanh khon ca th trng c ci thin r rt, nhu cu mua ngoi t c p ng . T gia thng 3 n nay, trng thi ngoi t ca h thng t chc tn dng lin tc dng v trong hu ht cc ngy s ngoi t mua c ln hn s ngoi t bn ra.

II. CC YU T NH HNG N T GI (NI CHUNG (NU P DNG CHO USD/VN K NGH VN C)

T gi hi oi, tc t l trao i gia hai ng tin cao hay thp c quyt nh bi cc lc lng th trng, cung v cu. Cung ngoi t l lng ngoi t m th trng mun bn ra thu v ni t. Cu ngoi t l lng ngoi t m th trng mun mua vo bng cc ng ni t. Gi c ngoi t, t gi hi oi cng c xc nh theo quy lut cung cu nh i vi cc hng ho thng thng. Khi cung ngoi t ln hn cu ngoi t s lm cho gi ngoi t gim, tc t gi hi oi tng. Ngc li, khi cu ngoi t ln hn cung ngoi t gi ngoi t s tng, tc t gi gim. v tr cung ngoi t bng cu ngoi t xc nh trng thi cn bng, khng c p lc lm cho t gi thay i. Ta c th hnh dung c ch hnh thnh t gi c hiu th r khi c s khc nhau v cung v cu ngoi t. Khi cung ngoi t ln hn cu ngoi t, lng ngoi t m th trng cn bn ra nhiu hn lng ngoi t cn mua vo, khi c mt s ngi khng bn c s sn sng bn vi mc gi thp hn v lm cho gi ngoi t trn th trng gim. T duy tng t, khi cu ln hn cung, mt s ngi khng mua c ngoi t sn sng tr gi cao hn v gy sc p lm gi ngoi t trn th trng tng. Khi cung ngoi t bng cu ngoi t, lng ngoi t m th trng cn mua ng bng lng ngoi t cn bn lm cho gi ngoi t khng i, th trng cn bng. Chng ta c th thy, t gi hi oi trn th trng lun thay i. C rt nhiu nhn t tc ng gy ra s bin ng ca t gi hi oi vi nhng mc v c ch khc nhau. Cn cn thng mi nh hng n t gi hi oi. Cn cn thng mi ca mt nc l chnh lch gia kim ngch xut khu v kim ngch nhp khu. Mt nn kinh t khi xut khu hng ho v dch v s thu c ngoi t. tip tc cng vic kinh doanh, cc nh xut khu phi bn ngoi t ly ni t, mua hng ho dch v trong nc xut khu ra nc ngoi. Trn th trng cung ngoi t s tng, lm t gi hi oi gim. Ngc li, khi nhp khu hng ho dch v, cc nh nhp khu cn ngoi t thanh ton cho i tc v i mua ngoi t trn th trng. Hnh ng ny lm cu ngoi t tng, t gi hi oi tng. Tc ng ca hai hin tng trn l ngc chiu trong vic hnh thnh t gi hi oi. T gi hi oi cui cng s tng hay gim ph thuc vo mc tc ng mnh yu ca cc nhn t, chnh l cn cn thng mi. Nu mt nc c thng d thng mi, cung ngoi t ln hn cu ngoi t, t gi hi oi s gim, ng ni t ln gi. Khi thm ht thng mi, t gi hi oi s tng, ng ni t gim gi. u t ra nc ngoi, c nh hng ti t gi hi i c dn trong nc dng tin mua ti sn nc ngoi, c th l u t trc tip (xy dng nh my, thnh lp cc doang nghip...) hay u t gin tip (mua c phiu, tri phiu...). Nhng nh u t ny mun thc hin hot ng kinh doanh trn cn phi c ngoi t. H mua ngoi t trn th trng, lung vn ngoi t chy ra nc ngoi, t gi hi oi s tng. Ngc li mt nc nhn u t t nc ngoi, lung vn ngoi t chy vo trong nc, lm cho cung ngoi t tng, t gi hi oi gim. u t ra nc ngoi rng l hiu s gia lung vn chy ra v lung vn chy vo mt nc. Khi u t ra nc ngoi rng dng, lung vn chy vo trong nc nh hn dng vn chy ra nc ngoi,t gi hi oi tng. T gi hi oi s gim trong trng hp ngc li, u t ra nc ngoi rng m. Theo quy lut ti u ho, lung vn s chy n ni no c li nht, tc l hiu sut sinh li cao nht. Mt nn kinh t s thu ht c cc lung vn n u t nhiu hn khi n c mi trng u t thun li, nn chnh tr n nh, cc u vo sn c vi gi r, ngun lao ng di do c tay

ngh, th trng tiu th rng ln, li sut cao v s thng thong trong chnh sch thu ht u t nc ngoi ca Chnh ph. Lm pht nh hng n t gi hi oi. Khi mt nc c lm pht, sc mua ng ni t gim, vi t gi hi oi khng i, hng ho dch v trong nc t hn trn th trng nc ngoi trong khi hng ho dch v nc ngoi r hn trn th trng trong nc. Theo quy lut cung cu, c dn trong nc s chuyn sang dng hng ngoi nhiu hn v gi r hn, nhp khu tng, cu ngoi t tng, t gi hi oi tng. Tng t v tng gi, c dn nc ngoi s dng t hng nhp khu hn. Hot ng xut khu gim st, cung ngoi t trn th trng gim, t gi hi oi tng. Nh vy lm pht nh hng n c cung v cu ngoi t theo hng tng gi ngoi t, tc ng cng gp lm cho t gi hi oi tng nhanh hn. Trn th trng tin t, lm pht lm ng tin mt gi, ngi dn s chuyn sang nm gi cc ti sn nc ngoi nhiu hn, cu ngoi t gia tng y t gi hi oi tng. Trong trng hp cc quc gia u c lm pht th nhng tc ng trn s ph thuc vo t l lm pht tng i gia cc quc gia. Quc gia no c t l lm pht cao hn, ng ni t quc gia s mt gi mt cch tng i v t gi hi oi tng. Nhn t cui cng v cng l nhn t quan trng nht tc ng n t gi hi oi l tm l s ng. Ngi dn, cc nh u c, cc ngn hng v cc t chc kinh doanh ngoi t l cc tc nhn trc tip giao dch trn th trng ngoi hi. Hot ng mua bn ca h to nn cung cu ngoi t trn th trng. Cc hot ng li b chi phi bi yu t tm l, cc tin n cng nh cc k vng vo tng lai. iu ny gii thch ti sao, gi ngoi t hin ti li phn nh cc k vng ca dn chng trong tng lai. Nu mi ngi k vng rng t gi hi oi s tng trong tng lai, mi ngi x i mua ngoi t th t gi s tng ngay trong hin ti; Mt khc, gi ngoi t rt nhy cm vi thng tin cng nh cc chnh sch ca chnh ph. Nu c tin n rng Chnh ph s h tr xut khu, hn ch nhp khu gim thm ht thng mi, mi ngi s ng lot bn ngoi t v t gi hi oi s gim nhanh chng. Trong thc t, t gi hi oi b chi phi ng thi bi tt c cc yu t trn vi mc mnh yu khc nhau ca tng nhn t, tu vo thi gian v hon cnh nht nh. Vic tch ri v lng ho nh hng ca tng nhn t l vic lm khng th. Cc nhn t trn khng tch ri m tc ng tng hp, c th tng cng hay t ch ln nhau, n t gi hi oi lm cho t gi hi oi lun bin ng khng ngng