A B -

) P( A | B :
)P( A B
)P( B

= )P( A | B

:1
12 5 8- 4 .
.
. ?
. ?
. , ?
. , ?

)P( A B) = P( A | B) P( B
)P( A B ) = P ( B | A) P( A

A1 , A2 ,, An :

) (.

i =1

i j ) Ai A j = : (.

B A1 , A2 ,, An
B:
n

) P ( B) = P( B | Ai ) P( Ai
i =1

 ) :2 (
2 . ,
,1 2
.3 .
. ?
. ?2
. , ?2

 : A B - - )"(
) : (
. P( A B ) = P( A)P(B ) .1
. P( A | B ) = P( A) .2
. P(B | A) = P(B ) .3
: A1 ,, An - )"( K
1 i1 < < ik n . P( Ai Ai ) = P(Ai )* * P(Ai ) :
k

:3
0.6 "
. ,
.
. 3 ?
. 3 , 7 8
?
3 . ' :
(1 0 ?
(2 1 ?
(3 K ?

 : )"( .
:3 X- ' 3
. ?X

:4
. 0.4
,10 0.3
,2 ,
. " 0.5
) 1 (.
Y- , ?Y

 : - ) E(X :
n

) E ( X ) = xi P( X = x i x1 ,, x n X.
i =1

3 .4

: ) E ( X 2 ) = xi P( X = x i
2

, V ( X ) = E ( X 2 ) E ( X ) 2 -

i =1

) V(X X X.
:
.1 " X a b- :
, E (aX + b) = aE ( X ) + b .
. V (aX + b) = a 2V ( X ) .
.2 X Y- . E ( X + Y ) = E ( X ) + E (Y ) :
:5
2 3- .
2 . Z- . ?Z
?


: ,
.
. n ," ,
.p X- , X
) . X ~ B(n, p
n
k

X: 0 , n . P( X = k ) = p k (1 p )n k
. V ( X ) = np(1 p) E ( X ) = np
:6
4 , X-
,3- ? X ?

100 , X-
,3- ? X ?


" p . X-
. ). X ~ G ( p
k 1
X ,1- . P( X = k ) = (1 p) p
1
:
p

= ) E( X

1 p
-
p2

= ) .V ( X

:7
.3- W-
. ?W ?
10 ?3-

-
N D . n
.
). X ~ HG( N , D, n
X }) . max{0, n ( N D X
} . min{n, D X .
D
D D N n
E ( X ) = n :-
1
N
N N N 1

.V ( X ) = n

:8
6 2- . 3 . -
R . ? R
? 2 ?

] X X ~ U [m, , n m ,n - ) m n( , X

1
m, m + 1,, n 1, n , k
n m +1

= ) ) P( X = k

( . :
m+n
(m n + 1) 2 1
= ) E ( X-
12
2

= ) .V ( X

:9
7 , T- , ?T
?

. ) X~P( X
0-:

k
!k

. P( X = k ) = e E ( X ) = :

. V ( X ) = -
-.
:10
3
1".
3"?
, 4?

ab

P(a X b) = f ( x)dx X- " . f

a

.X

f ( x) 0 .1 x.
.2 ) f (x .1-

: :X

f ( x)dx

= ) . FX (t ) = P( X t

:
.1 . P(a X b) = FX (b) FX (a) : a b
FX (t ) .2 ) (.
. lim FX (t ) = 0 lim FX (t ) = 1 .3
t

.4 . f ( x) = F `( x) :

xf ( x) dx

= ) E( X

2
x f ( x) dx

= ) E( X 2

. V ( X ) = E ( X 2 ) E ( X ) 2 -

 :11
:
0 x 1
c

f ( x) = 1.5c 0.5cx 1 x 3
0

.1 ? c
.2 . P (0.5 X 1.5) P ( X 1) :
.3 ? X

 )X ~ U (a, b

a xb

f ( x) = b a
0

a+b
2

= ) E( X

ta
atb
bt

0
t a

= ) FX (t
b a
1

(b a) 2
= ) V (X
12

:12
3-.
.1 , 2-?
.2 2- ,
2.5-?
.3 ?

 ) X ~ exp(

0 x

t0

0
f ( x) = x
e

= ) E( X

0t

1
2

0
= ) FX (t
t
1 e

= ) V (X

:13
15.
.1 , 10- ,
20-?
.2 10 , 10?