REPORT ON 1 7 TH ELECTRI C POW ER SURVEY OF I N D I A The r e por t on 1 7 t h Ele ct r ic Pow e r Su r ve y of I ndia ha s be e n publishe d by Ce nt r a l Ele ct r icit y Aut h or it y.

The Re por t w a s r e le a se d by H onble M inist e r of Pow e r Shr i Shu shilk um a r Shin de on 2 4 t h M a y, 2 0 0 7 . The r e por t of t he 1 7 t h Ele ct r ic Pow e r Su r ve y of I ndia is a pu blica t ion giving for e ca st of e le ct r icit y de m a nd w h ich se r ve s a s a n im por t a n t input for pow e r se ct or pla n ning t o opt im a lly ut iliz e t he sca r ce r e sour ce s. The Ele ct r ic Pow e r Sur ve y Com m it t e e conduct s pe r iodic sur ve ys of e le ct r icit y de m a n d a nd h olds discu ssions w it h a ll t he st a k e h olde r s t o br ing out de m a nd for e ca st for use in pla n ning e x e r cise s of a ll k e y se ct or s of e con om y i.e . coa l, r a il, m a n ufa ct u r in g, infr a st r uct ur e , r e se a r ch, in du st r ie s, e t c. The ye a r - w ise de t a il of publica t ion of Ele ct r ic Sur ve y r e por t s is sh ow n in t he t a ble give n be low : Ele ct r ic Pow e r Sur ve y N um be r 1 st 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 5 th 6 th 7 th 8 th 9 th 1 0 th 1 1 th 1 2 th 1 3 th 1 4 th 1 5 th 1 6 th 1 7 th Ye a r of Publica t ion 1963 1964 1965 1966 1968 1970 1972 1973 1974 1977 1982 1985 1987 1991 1995 2000 2007

I ndia ha s be e n fa cing e le ct r icit y shor t a ge s in spit e of a ppr e cia ble gr ow t h in e le ct r icit y ge ne r a t ion. The de m a n d for e le ct r ica l e ne r gy h a s be e n gr ow ing a t t he fa st e r r a t e a n d sha ll incr e a se a t highe r gr ow t h r a t e t o m a t ch w it h t h e pr oj e ct e d gr ow t h of I ndia n e con om y. The for e ca st of e le ct r icit y de m a nd is done on shor t a nd long t e r m ba sis using int e r na t iona lly w e ll- k now n m e t hodologie s of t im e se r ie s a na lysis a nd e n d u se m e t h od duly va lida t e d by t he r e sult s obt a ine d f r om e con om ic a n d e le ct r icit y gr ow t h in dica t or s. The shor t t e r m e le ct r icit y de m a nd ha s be e n m a de a ft e r com pe nsa t in g e le ct r icit y shor t a ge s in t he a ssum e d ba se ye a r . The T& D loss r e duct ion t a r ge t s w e r e a ssu m e d ba se d on con sult a t ion w it h t he St a t e Ele ct r icit y Re gula t or y Com m issions w ho fur nishe d t he pla n s of T& D loss r e duct ion for 1 1 t h Pla n. W he r e ve r such pr ogr a m m e w a s not a va ila ble for full pe r iod of 1 1 t h Pla n , e x t r a pola t e d da t a ha s be e n con side r e d. The int e r - r e giona l dive r sit y fa ct or w a s a lso a pplie d for pe a k de m a nd for t he fir st t im e in vie w of t he pr ogr a m m e for f or m a t ion of a st r ong N a t iona l Gr id dur ing t he 1 1 t h Pla n. The Rur a l- Ur ba n division of t he for e ca st of e le ct r icit y consu m pt ion ha s be e n done for t he fir st t im e t o a ccou nt for a cce le r a t e d r ur a l e le ct r ifica t ion a nd de ve lopm e nt in line w it h N a t iona l Ele ct r icit y Policy. W it h all t he se fe a t ur e s t he ut ilit y of t he Re por t w ould im pr ove ove r pr e viou s e dit ion s of Ele ct r ic Pow e r Sur ve y of I ndia . The gr ow t h r a t e s of for e ca st of e le ct r ica l e ne r gy consu m pt ion a n d e ne r gy r e quir e m e nt pr e pa r e d by t he 1 7 t h Ele ct r ic Pow e r Sur ve y Com m it t e e w or k e d out t o a bout 1 0 % & 8 % r e spe ct ive ly for t he pe r iod t ill 1 1 t h Pla n e nd a ga inst t he a ct ua l gr ow t h r a t e of le ss t ha n 5 % dur ing 9 t h & init ia l ye a r s of 1 0 t h Pla n. The cor r e spondin g pe a k de m a nd gr ow t h w or k s out t o 9 % for pe r iod u pt o 1 1 t h Pla n e n d a ga inst a ct ua l a chie ve m e nt of 5 .3 % .
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The r e por t of t he 1 7 t h EPS unlik e e a r lie r EPS Re por t s h a s con side r e d N a t iona l Ele ct r icit y Policy t a r ge t for pr oviding pow e r t o a ll by 2 0 1 2 . The va r ious gr ow t h r a t e s ha ve be e n w or k e d out giving high e r w e ight a ge t o t he la t e st pow e r consum pt ion t r e nd t o ca pt ur e t he t e chnologica l cha n ge s a nd e ne r gy conse r va t ion e ffor t s in a ll ca t e gor ie s of e le ct r icit y con sum pt ion. T& D losse s ha ve be e n a conce r n for t he I ndia n e le ct r icit y se ct or since t he se ha ve be e n ve r y high w he n com pa r e d w it h ot he r de ve lope d count r ie s. The pr e se nt T& D losse s inclu ding u na ccoun t e d e ne r gy a r e a bout 3 0 % a nd t he r e is n e e d t o r e duce t he se losse s t h r ough e fficie nt m a na ge m e nt a nd t he be st ope r a t ion & m a int e na nce pr a ct ice s of t he t r a nsm ission a nd dist r ibut ion sy st e m s so t ha t m or e e ne r gy is m a de a va ila ble t o ult im a t e con sum e r s a t r e duce d cost . As pe r t he T& D loss r e du ct ion pr ogr a m m e pr opose d by t he Ut ilit ie s, t he se a r e e st im a t e d t o be br ought dow n t o a bout 2 2 % by t he e nd of 2 0 1 1 - 1 2 gr a dua lly r e ducing t o 1 6 % by 2 0 2 1 - 2 2 . The 1 7 t h EPS f or e ca st w ould build de ve lopm e nt ne e ds a n d t a r ge t s for a ll St a t e Gove r nm e nt s, u t ilit ie s, de ve lope r s, m a nufa ct ur e r s a nd ot he r st a k e - holde r s for pla nnin g t he ir gr ow t h w e ll in a dva nce . The e ne r gy con su m pt ion by va r ious st a k e - h olde r s con t r ibut e s t ow a r ds t he GD P gr ow t h a nd, t he r e for e , t he e n e r gy consum pt ion in va r ious se ct or s lik e dom e st ic, com m e r cia l, a gr icult u r e , indust r y, r a ilw a ys, pu blic light ing, public w a t e r w or k s e t c. ha s be e n con side r e d St a t e - w ise t o w or k out t he de m a n d for e a ch se ct or of e le ct r icit y consu m pt ion. The r e por t ha s pr oj e ct e d e le ct r ica l e ne r gy de m a nd of 9 6 9 Te r a W a t t H our s for 2 0 1 1 - 1 2 a nd pe a k e le ct r ic de m a nd of 1 5 3 Giga W a t t s e nt a iling ca pa cit y a ddit ion of 7 8 ,0 0 0 M W by 2 0 1 1 - 1 2 . The e le ct r ica l e ne r gy de m a nd for 2 0 2 1 - 2 2 ha s be e n e st im a t e d a s 1 9 1 5 Te r a W a t t H our s a n d pe a k e le ct r ic de m a n d of 2 9 8 Giga W a t t s. The de m a nd pr oj e ct ion s ha ve be e n m a de a ssu m ing t ha t t h e ut ilit ie s w ould be a ble t o m a k e r igor ous e ffor t s in con t a ining T& D losse s a nd a dopt in g D e m a nd Side M a n a ge m e n t Te chnique s t o a chie ve high loa d fa ct or s. The de m a n d pr oj e ct ion s on a ll I ndia ba sis for t he ye a r 2 0 1 1 - 1 2 , 2 0 1 6 - 1 7 a n d 2 0 2 1 - 2 2 a r e give n be low :

Ye a r 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22

Ele ct r ica l Ene r gy Re quir e m e nt Pow e r St a t ion Bu s Ba r s ( GW h) 968659 1392066 1914508

at

Ann ua l Pe a k Ele ct r ic Loa d St a t ion Bu s Ba r s ( M W ) 152746 218209 298253

at

Pow e r

The r e gion- w ise pr oj e ct ions in r e spe ct of gr ow t h in de m a nd for e le ct r icit y by e a ch se gm e n t a r e give n in t he t a ble s pr ovide d be low

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All India Electrical Energy Consumption Utilities only Northern Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region North-Eastern Region Islands All India 2003-04 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 CAGR (2003-04 to 2011-12 97889 147923 163987 181586 201106 222668 10.8% 116641 155659 170090 186046 203629 223035 8.4% 107427 146078 159708 174980 192263 211732 8.9% 36968 54946 61914 69394 77869 87521 11.4% 3742 6098 6970 7996 9176 10576 13.9% 132 195 221 249 280 314 11.5% 362799 510899 562889 620251 684324 755847 9.6%

All India Electrical Energy Consumption in Domestic Utilities only Northern Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region North-Eastern Region Islands All India 2003-04 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 CAGR (2003-04 to 2011-12 29893 45191 50729 56886 63711 71246 11.5% 22496 32508 36307 40575 45370 50754 10.7% 26212 37294 41166 45514 50433 55971 9.9% 9905 17174 21067 25371 30466 36373 17.7% 1352 2683 3255 3949 4789 5836 20.1% 74 113 130 148 168 191 12.6% 89932 134962 152653 172443 194937 220372 11.9%

All India Electrical Energy Consumption in Commercial Utilities only Northern Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region North-Eastern Region Islands All India 2003-04 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 CAGR (2003-04 to 2011-12 9565 14464 16126 17982 20057 22377 11.2% 7830 11360 12640 14089 15726 17574 10.6% 8573 12223 13669 15376 17394 19766 11.0% 3193 3903 4137 4386 4645 4918 5.5% 384 604 685 775 871 964 12.2% 31 43 49 54 61 68 10.3% 29576 42596 47305 52663 58755 65666 10.5%

All India Electrical Energy Consumption in Irrigation Utilities only Northern Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region North-Eastern Region Islands All India 2003-04 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 CAGR (2003-04 to 2011-12 21529 32658 36005 39591 43425 47519 10.4% 31177 35161 37335 39641 42078 44657 4.6% 32209 41837 45082 48650 52544 56761 7.3% 2014 2807 3055 3276 3506 3751 8.1% 130 164 181 200 221 243 8.1% 0 0 0 0 0 0 87059 112626 121658 131357 141775 152931 7.3%

All India Electrical Energy Consumption in Industries Utilities only Northern Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region North-Eastern Region Islands All India 2003-04 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 CAGR (2003-04 to 2011-12 28200 41935 46272 51005 56458 62598 10.5% 47073 66040 72259 79076 86551 94765 9.1% 33344 44909 48954 53541 58773 64738 8.6% 17976 26277 28578 30955 33458 36250 9.2% 1213 1743 1891 2057 2217 2388 8.8% 5 7 7 8 9 10 8.7% 127811 180912 197961 216642 237465 260748 9.3%

All India Electrical Energy Consumption in Others Utilities only Northern Region Western Region Southern Region Eastern Region North-Eastern Region Islands All India 2003-04 2007 - 08 2008 - 09 2009 - 10 2010 - 11 2011 - 12 CAGR (2003-04 to 2011-12 8702 13676 14856 16121 17454 18927 10.2% 8065 10590 11549 12664 13905 15285 8.3% 7089 9816 10838 11899 13118 14497 9.4% 3880 4786 5076 5406 5794 6229 6.1% 663 904 958 1016 1079 1145 7.1% 22 32 35 38 42 46 9.6% 28421 39802 43312 47146 51392 56130 8.9%