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DEVELOPMENT STRATEGISTS
Preface
MXD Development Strategists Ltd (MXD) of Vancouver, Canada, was commissioned to conduct a Commercial and Industrial Development Study for the City of Saskatoon. The Study was carried out over the period May to November 2011. The objective of this study is to document Saskatoons current retail, office, hotel and industrial supply and demand metrics to gauge the magnitude of development opportunity that could occur over the next 20 years or as the Citys population continues to grow and surpasses key future milestones including 250,00, 275,00, 300,000 and 325,000 residents. In addition to the supply and demand metrics, MXD provided an overview of each Suburban Development Area (SDA) within the City of Saskatoon. Using the forecasted demand estimates, a land allocation of the various land uses was also conducted in which each SDA was evaluated and apportioned a requisite and compatible amount of the forecasted demand. Reference material for this report was obtained from, but not limited to; The City of Saskatoon, Commercial Real Estate Brokerage Firms in Saskatoon (in particular, Colliers International Saskatoon, Bunsdon Junor Johnson & Associates and ICR Saskatoon), Environics Analytics, Statistics Canada, Chamber of Commerce, Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Association, Tourism Saskatoon, University of Saskatchewan, Conference Board of Canada and MXD Development Strategists Ltd. MXD Development Strategists Ltd. do not warrant that any estimates contained within the study will be achieved, but that they have been prepared conscientiously and objectively on the basis of information obtained during the course of this study. Also, any tenant references made in the report are for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as guarantees that they will locate in the City of Saskatoon. i This analysis was conducted by MXD Development Strategists Ltd. as an objective and independent party; and is not an agent of the City by virtue of this or any subsequent study to be conducted on this matter. As is customary in an assignment of this type, neither our name nor the material submitted may be included in a prospectus, or part of any printed material, or used in offerings or representations in connection with the sale of securities or participation interest to the public, without the expressed permission of MXD Development Strategists Ltd. or the City of Saskatoon.
Executive Summary
INTRODUCTION
MXD Development Strategists Ltd (MXD) of Vancouver, Canada, was commissioned to conduct a Commercial and Industrial Development Study for the City of Saskatoon. The Study was carried out over the period May to November 2011. The objective of this study is to document Saskatoons current retail, office, hotel and industrial supply and demand metrics to gauge the magnitude of development opportunity that could occur over the next approximate 20 years or as the citys population continues to grow and surpasses future milestones of 250,00, 275,00, 300,000 and 325,000 residents. By the time the City of Saskatoon reaches a population of 325,000, the citys commercial and industrial floor space inventory (excluding hotel) is forecast to grow from a total of 30.1 million sf to 42.4 million sf. This represents substantial growth of 41% (refer to Table 1).
Table 1
OVERALL HIGHLIGHTS
Saskatoon has been very successful in managing its growth across all development areas (retail, office, hotel and industrial). The city has avoided over-building during a time when pressures to build were prominent, particularly during the years 2003 to 2007. At the same time however, the city has missed out on potential opportunities to broaden its appeal and indirectly has created pent up demand. This Commercial and Industrial Development Study has identified future growth across all land use segments as well as in each of the respective Suburban Development Areas (SDAs). The future allocation of land uses has identified the East Sector as a critical area for the creation of a major employment centre. Additionally, the Airport Business Area in the North Industrial area as well as Blairmore and Nutana have been identified as core areas for future smaller, yet equally important employment centres. The establishment of new employment centres in the north, south, east and west, as well as the re-enforcement of existing employment centres, particularly the downtown core, are important in achieving sustainable growth by promoting alternative living and working destinations, thereby altering commuting patterns, capable of taking pressures off of the transportation infrastructure as the city grows. The City of Saskatoon has sufficient lands within its current boundary to accommodate retail, office, hotel and industrial demand above and beyond that forecast for a total citywide population of 325,000 residents.
POPULATION HIGHLIGHTS
Saskatoon is the largest city in Saskatchewan with an estimated 231,900 residents as of June 2011 (city estimate). Forecasts estimate that the population could reach 235,500 by the end of 2011 (city estimate). For the purposes of the growth forecasts used in this study, the baseline population used is the 231,900 figure.
Annualized growth of 1.8% per annum over the next 20 years is reasonable and feasible for the City of Saskatoon to achieve on the basis of comparable historic growth curves of Edmonton and Calgary as well as forecasts from The Conference Board of Canada. Moreover, historic forecasts confirm that growth in the range of 2.0% per annum can be achieved in the city.
Executive Summary
RETAIL SUPPLY & DEMAND HIGHLIGHTS
While vacancy rates increased only marginally in the 2nd Quarter of 2011 to 2.6%, Saskatoon nonetheless continues to exemplify a very healthy and vibrant retail market. The sector did not face much adversity during the economic downturn and is poised to grow as many American retailers begin to expand to Canadian markets. The City of Saskatoons current retail inventory when quantified against the estimated current demand does illustrate some latent demand, with a current residual demand estimated to be in the range of 600,000 sf to 1.4 million sf. Beyond the estimated residual demand, Forecasted retail demand for the City of Saskatoon is summarized as follows: At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is total market demand for an additional 620,832 sf on 38.2 ac (15.5 ha). At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is total market demand for an additional 1,604,431 sf on 98.8 ac (39.9 ha). At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is total market demand for an additional 2,485,236 sf on 153.1 ac (61.9 ha). At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is total market demand for an additional 3,233,620 sf on 199.1 ac (80.6 ha). In combination with the citys current estimated inventory of 8.6 m sf, the cumulative new demand in floor space could result in total floor space growth to the following levels: 10.7 million sf at a population of 250,000 (43.5 sf/capita) 11.7 million sf at a population of 275,000 (42.8 sf/capita) 12.6 million sf at a population of 300,000 (41.9 sf/capita) 13.3 million sf at a population of 325,000 (40.9 sf/capita)
Positive retail absorption is expected to continue to occur as new projects come online, especially in expanding residential suburban locations such as Blairmore and University Heights.
The strength of 8th Street East currently draws shoppers from around the city, as many residents view it as a one stop shop for their retailing needs. Retail density in this commercial corridor is acceptable, however there are no pedestrian friendly retail projects, with the entire area being very auto oriented requiring shoppers to drive from store to store. The Broadway corridor continues to be one of the most vibrant retail areas in terms of identity and pedestrian activity, and the low vacancy rates and high lease rates display the desire for local and branded retailers to locate in this youthful district. Enclosed malls represent a mixed-bag for Saskatoon, whereby Midtown Plaza, The Centre and the Mall at Lawson Heights continue to perform quite well. On the other hand Market Mall and Confederation Mall are currently looking to re-define themselves. With continued population growth in the west, south and eastern edges of the city over the next several decades, there could be many opportunities for national retailers to expand their presence and open a second or third outlet in Saskatoon. Saskatoon is also approaching a point in its evolution whereby more progressive retail environments, beyond the typical power centre or strip mall, could be introduced in the coming years.
In the above growth scenarios, the city should be well positioned to accommodate future market-driven and tenant-driven growth while maintaining a sustainable total ratio in the range of 40 - 42 sf per capita, which is consistent with industry standards for urban markets in Canada and the United States).
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Executive Summary
The implementation of DCDs at Preston Crossing, Stonegate and Blairmore were successful in the early years of ensuring that the city did not overbuild and impact other areas, which given the economic challenges faced in 2008/2009 helped create relative stability in Saskatoons retail environment. It is that stability that has resulted in todays latent demand and thus has laid a foundation for the next wave of growth opportunities in attracting tenants and progressive development formats. To maintain future stability and competitive balance in all areas of the city, it is important that the City of Saskatoon continue to not overbuild, but rather use benchmarks and performance indicators such as retail space per capita, vacancy, market-driven demand and tenant interests as key variables to managing growth in a way that allows Saskatoon to maintain a solid footing in the province as well as nationally. At the end of the day, retail demand can only be filled if suitable and compatible tenant prospects are available and accommodated in formats suitable and appropriate for them. Accordingly, the demand forecasts outlined herein provide a strong foundation for identifying the timing, amount and applicable formats for retail growth in the city in response to population growth dynamics as well as tenant opportunities and requirements. A number of existing suburban office clusters are strategically located to benefit and/or support major nodes of the city. For example, the Aerogreen Business Park is poised to have a synergetic relationship with the airport while the Stonebridge Business Park will benefit from the existing office and commercial development in the south area of Saskatoon.
Suburban office clusters provide the bonus of ample parking space and is a major advantage for businesses to locate there.
Proximity to many residents neighbourhoods, creating shorter commute times is a positive advantage for suburban office that will likely play a factor into the future for growth areas such as the East SDA. Employment growth not only affects population growth and demand for workers, but also impacts the demand for office space inventory available for new or expanding companies. Investors are reacting to this trend and are responding by proposing a number of new downtown and suburban office projects. Office demand in Saskatoon for a long period of time exhibited slower growth, taking a secondary status to industrial and retail growth. However the market is showing signs of growth as evidenced by current office development projects proposing a total of approximately 763,800 sf of new office space, the majority of which is slated for downtown. The market could potentially be flooded with new office space in the next 2 to 4 years. If all proposed projects are built as scheduled, the Saskatoon market could average of approximately 190,000 sf per year over a 4 year period. This is an aggressive number above the historic average absorption rate (143,323 sf per year).
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Executive Summary
If the proposed office projects are built, the additional floor space could bring the citys total inventory to over 5.4 million sf within the next few years. Annual absorption of new office space could also be increased if economic development initiatives in the City of Saskatoon and the province, by applicable economic development groups (private or public) are successful in recruiting major corporate headquarters or other major businesses to Saskatoon. With the addition of numerous planned major office development projects in Saskatoon, the next wave of major office development could be introduced sometime between 2020 and 2025. Saskatoons current office inventory of 4.7 million sf equates to a ratio of approximately 20 sf per capita. This figure illustrates relative stability in the market, but also indicates room for growth to a level of 22 sf per capita, which would place Saskatoon in line with a city such as Winnipeg. The results of the demand analysis reveal that cumulative new demand in
floor space could result in total citywide floor space growth to the following levels:
5.0 million sf at a population of 250,000 (20.4 sf/capita) 5.6 million sf at a population of 275,000 (20.9 sf/capita) 6.2 million sf at a population of 300,000 (21.0 sf/capita) 6.7 million sf at a population of 325,000 (20.9 sf/capita)
Overall, Saskatoon will need to provide both downtown and suburban office space as the city continues to grow. Downtown space will provide larger users with ample space, while suburban locations will primarily provide multi-tenant options and build-to-suit space.
Beyond the proposed office projects in the pipeline, forecasted office demand for the City of Saskatoon is summarized as follows:
Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 21 sf per capita. However, the figures above do not take into account the potential addition of proposed projects totaling 763,800 sf. Assuming the 763,800 sf of proposed space is introduced by the time the city reaches 250,000 could result in the following cumulative citywide growth:
5.8 million sf at a population of 250,000 (23.5 sf/capita) 6.4 million sf at a population of 275,000 (23.7 sf/capita) 7.0 million sf at a population of 300,000 (23.6 sf/capita) 7.5 million sf at a population of 325,000 (23.3 sf/capita)
At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 295,182 sf on 10.1 ac (4.1 ha).
At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 926,423 sf on 31.6 ac (12.8 ha). At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 1,498,240 sf on 51.1 ac (20.6 ha). At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 1,998,691 sf on 68.2 ac (27.7 ha).
Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 23 sf per capita thus placing the city in a strong, yet feasible and sustainable range. As with retail, the City of Saskatoons potential for office growth is not just dependent upon population or employment growth, but also on the ability of economic development agencies to attract new businesses to the city.
Executive Summary
Saskatoon, much like Calgary, is a corporate city and as such the economic growth of the potash, mining and agricultural industries will play a pivotal role in Saskatoons ability to attract major office tenants in the future, thereby fulfilling forecasted office demand. Saskatoons downtown is currently a low density downtown, but this is expected and recommended to change as the city grows over the next 15 to 20 years. In order for Saskatoon to be competitive with cities such as Winnipeg, Calgary or Edmonton, its downtown must be seen as providing a corporate office environment and culture. Demand forecasts therefore suggest that downtown should be the first priority for major office development. Areas such as the Airport Business Area and the future East Sector will also serve important roles in creating future employment centres as the city grows and reaches a population of 325,000. Saskatoons current hotel inventory, estimated at 3,393 rooms, represents an average of just under 15 hotel rooms per 1,000 residents (14.6). This ratio is almost on par with the national average (16.0) and as such further illustrates some latent demand, yet most importantly overall stability in the hotel market. The City of Saskatoon currently has some residual demand for new hotel rooms, but the introduction of the new Holiday Inn will fulfill some of that demand in the short term. Over the next few years, growth should be managed to maintain an overall balance. Beyond the current hotel under construction (Holiday Inn downtown), forecasted hotel demand for the City of Saskatoon is summarized as follows: At a population benchmark of 250,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 116,400 sf, equating to approximately 194 rooms on 2.4 ac (0.9 ha). At a population benchmark of 275,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 270,000 sf, equating to approximately 450 rooms on 5.7 ac (2.3 ha). At a population benchmark of 300,000 there is total cumulative market demand for an additional 411,600 sf, equating to approximately 686 rooms on 8.7 ac (3.5 ha). At a population benchmark of 325,000 there is a total cumulative market demand for an additional 533,400 sf, equating to approximately 889 rooms on 11.2 ac (4.5 ha).
Over the forecast horizon as the city grows towards a population of 325,000 the total city hotel inventory is estimated to grow to approximately 4,282 rooms (at a population of 325,000), or a ratio of 13.2 rooms per 1,000 residents. This slight decline in the per capita ratio suggests additional demand could be warranted beyond that forecast in these findings.
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Executive Summary
However, it is recommended that the city take a more conservative approach to hotel development that recognizes other critical market dynamics and demand generators beyond simply per capita ratios, including but not limited to factors such as age and renovations of existing properties, size, frequency and overall utilization of convention facilities, occupancy and ADR (Average Daily Room) rates. Although it is conceivable that demand could exceed that forecasted in the scenarios presented herein, it is important to recognize that demand is also a function of the population growth and the employment base available to fulfill such demand. The results of the demand analysis reveal that cumulative new demand in floor space could result in total citywide floor space growth to the following levels: 16.3 million sf at a population of 250,000 18.5 million sf at a population of 275,000 20.6 million sf at a population of 300,000 22.3 million sf at a population of 325,000
Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 68 sf per capita. Accordingly, the industrial demand suggests a future allocation for almost 500 acres of additional new industrial demand as the city reaches a population of 325,000. The current amount of land available in the North Industrial SDA exceeds the forecasted amount of demand for the next approximate 20-years. The North Industrial SDA also, as it is currently zoned, could also accommodate additional economic-development driven demand above and beyond that forecast in this study. This land allocation also realizes the significance that industrial land can play in the future growth of the city, as an employment centre, and as such envisions an additional urban holding area, in the East SDA, that could potentially accommodate future demand above and beyond market-driven forecasts at the 325,000 population threshold. Overall, the City of Saskatoon currently has enough land within its city boundaries to accommodate market-driven as well as economicdevelopment driven industrial demand beyond a population threshold of 325,000 residents. . vii
Executive Summary
AGGREGATE CITYWIDE DEMAND HIGHLIGHTS
Figure 1 and Table 1 provide an aggregate summary of the retail, office, hotel and industrial demand estimates, as quantified against the 325,000 person population threshold. Figure 1 illustrates a total commercial and industrial land requirement of 12.8 million sf on 778.5 ac (315.0 ha) necessary to fulfill the needs of the City of Saskatoon when it reaches a threshold population of 325,000 residents.
Figure 1 Projected Cumulative New Demand in Floor Space and Land Area in City of Saskatoon For Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial
(At Citys Population Threshold of 325,000) 14,000,000 800.0
782.1
12,000,000
700.0
503.3
8,000,000
500.0
3,230,000
2,000,000
6,000,000
12,830,000
400.0
7,060,000
540,000
300.0
4,000,000
199.2
200.0
2,000,000
100.0
68.3
0
RETAIL
11.3
0.0
TOTAL
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL HOTEL ALL SDAs Commercial & Industrial Floorspace & Land Allocation
Demand (Acres)
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Executive Summary
Table 2 Projected Cumulative New Demand in Floor Space and Land Area in City of Saskatoon
Table 2 takes the total allocation of the commercial and industrial demand from Figure 1 and further sub-divides this into the respective and pertinent OCP zoning classifications (as they are currently written within the citys OCP). Figure 2 illustrates the allocation of future land uses across the city in the respective SDA. The City of Saskatoons current inventory of retail, office and industrial floor space is largely in balance, with some pent up demand evident. But overall, Saskatoons commercial and industrial inventory has been a reflection of historically stable, but conservative growth. However, Saskatoons growth outlook represents a much more robust growth curve and as such demand pressures are expected to create significant opportunities.
Demand Allocation (SF) 220,000 600,000 90,000 505,000 0 390,000 1,025,000 400,000 3,230,000
Acres Required 12.6 34.4 2.8 33.1 0.0 25.6 78.4 12.2 199.2
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 1,230,000 770,000 2,000,000 56.5 11.8 68.3
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 4,210,000 2,850,000 0 7,060,000 540,000 Total ALL SDAs Summary 12,830,000 241.6 261.7 0.0 503.3 11.3 782.1
Hotel
Notes: The District (College Quarter) is designated as separate from District to highlight the specific size and nature of the Universitys plans for this future mixed-use development. The 90,000 sf of floor space shown here is for retail only.
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Executive Summary
Figure 2 City of Saskatoon Commercial & Industrial Demand Allocation
Executive Summary
POLICY CONSIDERATIONS
As the city continues to grow and expand, it is possible for Saskatoon to out-grow existing zoning regulations. In response, the demand for a variety of land uses could be expected to increase throughout the city. Accordingly, the following provides some areas in which the city could be proactive in adjusting Policy to accommodate future city growth and the resulting changes in demand. The principle of establishing a hierarchy for commercial and industrial land uses in the City of Saskatoon is still relevant and should thus be maintained. However, within the structure of the overall hierarchy there are some specific Policy amendments that could be considered to allow the hierarchical relationships to be stronger. Policy Consideration: Remove the Direct Control District DCD designation from DCD3 (Preston Crossing), DCD5 (Stonegate) and DCD6 (Blairmore), whereby the DCD governs a regional retail development. The DCD designation for other areas such as the Riverfront Downtown (DCD1) or the Willows (DCD4) are considered separate from this recommendation (refer to Figure 3). The original rationale for creation of the regional retail DCDs, as they relate to retail developments may have been justified at the time however the retail market in Saskatoon has matured and continues to show significant strength and demand to allow for less restrictions on `Regional Retail` developments. Moreover, in order for developers and the city to attract new progressive development formats and tenants, it is important that store sizes and quantity limitations not exist. While Regional Commercial is documented in the OCP, its inclusion in the existing Commercial Zoning Bylaw and thus hierarchy is blurred and unclear.
Figure 3
Policy Consideration: Amend the Zoning Bylaw Designation to clearly integrate a Regional Commercial District (C-5) within the existing hierarchy and thereby provide for more consistency between the Zoning Bylaw and the OCP, while maintaining a relatively simple and user-friendly hierarchy consistent with retail commercial land uses (refer to Figure 4). To create this updated, predominantly retail, commercial hierarchy would require amending the existing nomenclature of existing zones B1 through B6 as C1A to C7but could provide a clearly structured hierarchy. Policy Consideration: Require Neighbourhood Mixed-Use B1B commercial zoning (or C1B under proposed new zoning hierarchy) for future new neighbourhoods to promote neighbourhood scale developments with live/work/own that are also more appealing to developers, since neighbourhood scale developments are not a preferred format for the majority of developers.
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Executive Summary
Figure 4 Potential Hierarchical Zoning Amendment
Policy Consideration: Update the existing Zoning Bylaw to include visual illustrations of the Development Standards/Design Guidelines, Landscaping, Signage and Floor Space Ratios to complement existing text and tables. Policy Consideration: Conduct a biannual review of Development Cost Charges (DCCs) to ensure the competitiveness of Saskatoon versus other markets, most notably, Regina. Policy Consideration: Continue to be proactive in engaging, involving and collaborating with local First Nations stakeholders, particularly those with strategic land holdings, such as in the Downtown and Sutherland areas. Many First Nations are expressing a desire to expand into mainstream type developments recognizing the intrinsic social and economic value that development can bring to their respective bands.
C1A - Limited Neighbourhood Commercial District C1B - Neighbourhood Commercial - Mixed-Use District C1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District C2 - District Commercial District C3 - Medium Density Arterial Commercial District C4 Arterial & Suburban Commercial District C4A - Special Suburban Centre & Arterial Commercial District C5 Regional Commercial Centre C6 - Inner-City Commercial Corridor District C7 - Downtown Commercial District
Policy Consideration: Re-allocate the Discretionary Large Format Retail currently within the IL1 District Zoning Designation to the IB District Zone. Reflecting on the trend towards creating more immersive and holistic business park developments in which larger format retailers exist with light industrial uses in higher quality environments, the IB Zone would be more compatible and provide the city with better control though Zoning and Design Guidelines. Policy Consideration: Rezone over time the IL1 zoning in the CN Industrial Area in Nutana to IB to allow for the attraction and establishment of more compatible and slightly higher employment generating business park development that would have a better relationship with adjacent residential and commercial developments as well as the improved regional accessibility afforded by the new Circle Drive interchange and south bridge crossing. The result would be to facilitate the establishment of a stronger south employment centre.
The City of Saskatoons SDAs serve a very important role in the allocation/ distribution of population, employment, residential, commercial and industrial development. While they are established and delineated accordingly, there are areas where over time the citys growth creates potential inconsistency as it relates to boundaries.
Accordingly, the following provides some policy direction for potential SDA boundary alterations.
Policy Consideration: Re-delineate the boundary of the Core SDA and Lawson SDA (refer to Figure 5 grey shaded area for potential new Core SDA boundary).
The new delineated Core SDA (and resulting re-delineated Lawson SDA) would now extend the northern boundary and would be adjusted to cross from King Street, across the rail tracks and behind the Ramada hotel to link up with 30th Street West at Idylwyld.
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Executive Summary
Figure 5 Potential Core SDA Boundary Alteration
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Table of Contents
Preface Executive Summary 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.3 3.4 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 Introduction Scope of Study & Project Background Report Structure Consultation Process Stakeholder Input & Acknowledgement Saskatoon Market Overview The Economy of Saskatchewan The Economy of Saskatoon Saskatoon Population Employment Core Industries of Saskatoon Saskatoon Major Employers Saskatoon GDP Growth & Trends Saskatoon Land Use Assessment Land Use Assessment Overview Commercial Zoning Hierarchy Additional Zones with Major Commercial Uses Saskatoon Commercial Uses Industrial Zoning Hierarchy Zoning Hierarchy Summary Retail Supply Analysis Introduction Saskatoon Retail Market Trends Saskatoon Retail Growth Retail Forecasts 2011 & Beyond Retail Inventory Major Commercial Corridors Planned/Under Construction Retail Projects Saskatoon Retail Tenants Expanding Retailers Saskatoon Retail Summary i ii 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 8 10 11 12 13 16 17 17 19 20 21 22 24 25 25 28 28 28 33 40 41 44 45 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2.1 5.2.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.3.1 6.3.2 6.3.3 6.4 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 Retail Demand Analysis Introduction Current Retail Demand Retail Space per Capita All Retail Space per Capita Shopping Mall and Power Centre Floor Space Only Retail Expenditure Current Estimated Residual Retail Demand Future Citywide Retail Demand Estimates Retail Demand Summary Office Supply Analysis Saskatoon Office Market Trends Office Inventory Planned/Under Construction Office Projects Downtown New Build Office Projects Downtown Redevelopment Office Projects Suburban Office Projects Saskatoon Office Summary Office Demand Analysis Introduction Future Citywide Office Demand Estimates Office Demand Summary Hotel Supply Analysis Hotel Market Overview Hotel Market Performance Summary Hotel Inventory Hotel Demand Analysis Introduction Hotel Market Demand Quantification Future Citywide Hotel Demand Estimates Hotel Demand Summary 46 47 47 47 47 48 49 49 51 52 53 57 58 58 59 59 63 66 67 67 69 70 71 71 73 78 79 79 80
Table of Contents
10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 12.0 12.1 12.2 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 Industrial Supply Analysis Introduction Market Performance Saskatoon Industrial Inventory Industrial Demand Analysis Introduction Future Citywide Industrial Demand Estimates Industrial Demand Summary Citywide Demand Summary Aggregate Citywide Demand Estimates Citywide Demand Summary Suburban Development Area Assessment Introduction Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: BLAIRMORE Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: CONFEDERATION Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: NUTANA Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: CORE Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: LAWSON Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: NORTH INDUSTRIAL Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: LAKEWOOD Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: EAST Commercial & Industrial Land Use Assessment: SUMMARY 82 83 83 85 92 93 93 95 96 97 99 100 101 102 103 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2.1 14.3 14.3.1 14.4 14.4.1 14.5 14.5.1 14.5.2 14.6 14.6.1 14.6.2 14.7 14.7.1 14.8 14.8.1 14.9 14.9.1 14.10 14.10.1 14.10.2 14.10.3 14.10.4 14.10.5 14.10.6 14.10.7 14.10.8 15.0 15.1 15.2 Suburban Development Area Land Use Allocation Vacant Land in Saskatoon BLAIRMORE Land Allocation CONFEDERATION Land Allocation NUTANA Land Allocation CORE Land Allocation NEW CORE Boundary LAWSON Land Allocation NEW LAWSON Boundary NORTH INDUSTRIAL Land Allocation UNIVERSITY HEIGHTS Land Allocation LAKEWOOD Land Allocation EAST East SDA Vision & Land Allocation Land Allocation by Land Use Component Retail Office Business Park (Light Industrial) Hotel Urban Holding Area Total East SDA Commercial & Industrial Land Allocation 129 130 131 131 135 135 138 138 141 141 141 146 146 146 151 151 154 154 157 157 160 160 161 161 162 163 163 166 166 169 170 170 170 170 172 172 173
108
111 114 117 120 123 127 128
13.9
13.10 13.11
Development Trends & Best Practices Development Trends Balancing Demand with Progressive Planning & Development 15.2.1 Live/Work 15.2.2 Industrial & Office Space Integration 15.2.3 Retails Relationship with Industrial Land 15.3 Locational Considerations & Requirements 15.4 Retail Development Format Zoning Designations
Table of Contents
16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 Policy Input & Recommendations Introduction Zoning Hierarchy Suburban Development Areas (SDAs) Case Studies City of Saskatoon & Saskatoon Health Region Population Projections (2006 2026) Crosby Hanna & Associates June 2010 Detailed Demand Model Tables Industry Terminology, Acronyms & Definitions 184 185 185 187 190
Appendix A Appendix B
Appendix C Appendix D
Table of Contents
List of Tables
2.1 Historic Population Growth Comparison in Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg, 1996 2006 9 14.1 Saskatoon Vacant Land Summary by SDA 14.2 Blairmore Demand Allocation 14.3 Confederation Demand Allocation 14.4 Nutana Demand Allocation 14.5 Core Demand Allocation 14.6 NEW Core Demand Allocation 14.7 Lawson Demand Allocation 14.8 NEW Lawson Demand Allocation 14.9 North Industrial Demand Allocation 14.10 University Heights Demand Allocation 14.11 Lakewood Demand Allocation 14.12 East SDA Demand Allocation 130 133 136 139 142 144 147 149 152 155 158 164
4.1
4.2 4.3 5.1 5.2
Saskatoon Retail Inventory Summary Northwest, Southwest and Southwest Saskatoon Retail Inventory Summary 8th Street East & Northeast Retail Tenant Void/Opportunity Analysis
Retail Per Capita Comparison Chart (Year End 2010) Retail Per Capita Comparison Shopping Mall & Power Centre GLA (2011 Estimates) Comparable Per Capita Office Space Ratios Major Office Projects in the Pipeline in Saskatoon Downtown & Suburban Office Location Comparison Hotel Market Benchmarks By National & Regional Location Hotel Market Benchmarks by Saskatchewan Location Hotel Market Benchmarks by Hotel Format Saskatoon Total Hotel Inventory Saskatoon Hotel Inventory (Excluding Downtown) Saskatoon Hotel Inventory (Downtown ONLY) Saskatoon Hotel Demand Summary (2011 2031)
29 31 42 48 49 55 60 64 72 72 72 73 74 76 79
6.1 6.2 6.3 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 9.1
10.1 Saskatoon Industrial Inventory & Vacancy by Sector 2007 Q2 2010 10.2 Saskatoon Industrial Inventory & Vacancy by Land Area 12.1 Projected Cumulative Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon for Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial 12.2 Projected Cumulative Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon by Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial Zoning Class 12.3 Current Supply & Future Demand Summary
87 88
98 99 99
Table of Contents
List of Figures
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Percentage of GDP Growth Saskatchewan vs. Canada City of Saskatoon Population Growth Forecast Scenarios Saskatoon Unemployment Rate Saskatoon Core Industries Saskatoon Real GDP Growth Saskatoons First Nations Reserves (As of July 2011) Muskeg Lake Cree Nation Urban Reserve McKnight Commercial Centre (established 1989) City of Saskatoon Existing Commercial Zoning Hierarchy Zoning Hierarchy of Additional Commercial Zones in the City of Saskatoon Overlapping of the Commercial Zoning Hierarchy and the Additional Commercial-Oriented Zones City of Saskatoon Industrial Zoning Hierarchy Retail Inventory 2005 2010 Annual Retail Absorption 2006 2010 Saskatoons Retail Sales Current & Forecast Saskatoon Retail Vacancy 2001 2010 Saskatoon Retail Inventory Northwest, Southwest & Southeast Saskatoon Retail Inventory 8th Street East & Northeast Saskatoon Major Commercial Corridors Projected Cumulative Retail Demand in Floor Space and Land in the City of Saskatoon Office Vacancy Rates across Western Canada Class A Rental Rates Across Western Canada Historic Absorption Rates in City of Saskatoon Saskatoon Office Inventory Proposed Downtown Office Projects in Saskatoon Proposed and Under Development Suburban Office Clusters in Saskatoon 6 9 10 11 13 14 15 9.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.1 18 19 20 21 26 26 27 27 30 32 33 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.7 Projected Cumulative Hotel Demand in Floor Space, Number of Rooms and Land in City of Saskatoon Saskatoon Industrial Market Indicators Saskatoon Industrial Vacancy Comparison Saskatoon Historic Industrial Inventory (2005 2010) Saskatoon Historic Industrial Absorption (2006- 2010) Selected Major Industrial Areas in the City of Saskatoon Saskatoon Industrial Inventory Distribution Saskatoon Industrial Imagery Examples 81 83 84 84 84 86 89 90 7.1 Projected Cumulative Office Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon Historic Hotel Occupancy in Saskatoon Saskatoon Hotel Valuation Index Saskatoon Hotel Inventory (Excluding Downtown) Saskatoon Hotel Inventory (Downtown) 68 71 73 75 77
11.1 Projected Cumulative Industrial Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon 94 12.1 Projected Cumulative Demand in Floor Space and Land in City of Saskatoon for Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial 13.1 City of Saskatoon SDAs & Boundaries (as of 2011) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 Total Vacant Land Blairmore Demand Allocation Map Confederation Demand Allocation Map Nutana Demand Allocation Map Core Demand Allocation Map NEW Core Demand Allocation Map (Reflecting altered Core SDA Boundary)
50 54 54 55 57 61 62
Table of Contents
List of Figures (Continued)
14.7 Lawson Demand Allocation Map 14.8 NEW Lawson Demand Allocation Map (Reflecting altered Lawson SDA Boundary) 14.9 North Industrial Demand Allocation Map 14.10 University Heights Demand Allocation Map 14.11 Lakewood Demand Allocation Map 14.12 East SDA Potential Population Growth Forecast Scenarios 14.13 East SDA Demand Allocation 14.14 East SDA Demand Allocation Breakdown by Percentage of Floor Space and Land Use Category 14.15 East SDA Demand Allocation Breakdown by Percentage of Land and Land Use Category 14.16 East SDA Share of Total Citywide Floor Space Allocation (by SDAs) 14.17 East SDA Share of Total Citywide Land Allocation (by SDAs) 14.18 East SDA Demand Allocation Map 148 150 153 156 159 161 165 166 166 167 167 167
16.1 DCD Hierarchical Zoning Policy Consideration 16.2 Potential B4 Hierarchical Zoning Amendment 16.3 Potential Core SDA Boundary Alteration
1.0 Introduction
1.1 SCOPE OF STUDY & PROJECT BACKGROUND
MXD Development Strategists Ltd. of Vancouver, Canada (MXD) was commissioned by the City of Saskatoon, the Client, in May 2011 to conduct a Commercial and Industrial Development Study. The purpose of this Study is to identify the future amount of commercial and industrial lands required to create sustained employment opportunities and economic growth for the future the City of Saskatoon.
Section 5 - Retail Demand Analysis: analyzes through a process of triangulation of Consumer Spending, Historic Absorption and Per Capita ratios the growth in retail floor space demand and resulting land requirements over time and measured against specific population thresholds. Section 6 Office Supply Analysis: assesses and documents notable existing and planned office inventory in the city and the historic and forecast performance metrics. Section 7 Office Demand Analysis: analyzes through a process of triangulation of Employment Growth, Historic Absorption and Per Capita ratios the growth in office floor space demand and resulting land requirements over time and measured against specific population thresholds. Section 8 - Hotel Supply Analysis: assesses and documents existing and planned hotel inventory in the city, as well as their price point and historic performance benchmarks. Section 9 - Hotel Demand Analysis: assesses potential growth of the hotel market in terms of future hotel room demand and resulting land requirements over time and measured against specific population thresholds. Section 10 Industrial Supply Analysis: assesses and documents existing and planned heavy and light inventory in the city, including historic and forecast performance metrics. Section 11 Industrial Demand Analysis: analyzes through a process of triangulation of Employment Growth, Historic Absorption and Per Capita ratios the growth in industrial floor space demand and resulting land requirements over time and measured against specific population thresholds.
Section 1 - Introduction: introduces the study process and structure. Section 2 Saskatoon Market Overview: provides a synopsis of Saskatchewan and Saskatoon economic environments. Section 3 Saskatoon Land Use Assessment: provides a review of the current commercial hierarchy that allocate land uses in the city. Section 4 Retail Supply Analysis: assesses and documents the local and regional existing and planned retail inventory and historic and forecast performance metrics.
1.0 Introduction
Section 12 Citywide Demand Analysis: provides a summary of the retail, office, hotel and industrial floor space and land area demand forecasts. Section 13 Suburban Development Area Assessment: provides a summary of each Suburban Development Area (SDA) in terms of the current zoning, land uses and potential future land use opportunities. Section 14 Suburban Development Area Land Use Allocation: using the demand forecasts as a foundation, allocates and distributes future floor space and land demand in each Suburban Development Area reflecting on the potential opportunities and constraints of each SDA. Section 15 Development Trends & Best Practices: provides a visual and descriptive overview of development trends that the City of Saskatoon could pursue in achieving future land use, including case studies of zoning policies for new development formats in Canada and the United States. Section 16 Policy Input and Recommendations: provides a summary of strategic planning and policy directions that could be implemented over the short, medium and long term to fulfill the findings and recommendations of the Commercial & Industrial Development Study. Appendix A Case Study Profiles Appendix B City of Saskatoon & Saskatoon Health Region Population Projections (2006 2026), Crosby Hanna & Associates June 2010 Appendix C Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial Detailed Demand Models Appendix D Industry Terminology, Acronyms and Definitions
October 17, 2011: Final Meeting & Presentation with Steering Committee and City Planning Staff to present Final Report Findings. 3
1.0 Introduction
In between these various milestone dates, significant interaction between MXD and the city as well as other groups took place. First Nations Stakeholders Chief Cliff Tawpisin, Muskeg Lake Cree Nation Milton Tootoosis, Livelihood and Economic Independence Coordinator, Office of the Treaty Commissioner Ralph Beattie, TLE Coordinator, Cowessess First Nation Brooke Crowe, Director of Operations, One Arrow First Nation Ron Waddington, Economic Development, Yellow Quill First Nation Paul Ledoux, General Manager of MLCN Investment Management Corp, (Muskeg Lake Cree Nation) Local/National Organizations & Companies Colliers International Saskatoon ICR Saskatoon Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals Ltd. Altus Group Tourism Saskatoon University of Saskatchewan Statistics Canada Environics Analytics Western Canada 2011 Conference Board of Canada International Council of Shopping Centers
3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Saskatchewan Canada 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source:
Conference Board of Canada, Economic Insights into 27 Canadian Metropolitan Economies, 2011
This evaluation of historic growth revealed that over the 15-year period 1991 to 2006, the City of Calgary experienced growth of approximately 2.2% per annum, while the City of Edmonton experienced strong growth at approximately 1.1%. Both of these markets underwent significant population growth and corresponding growth in their commercial sectors and resulting land use.
Similar to both Calgary and Edmonton, the City of Saskatoon has also experienced significant growth over the past decade. Previous population forecasts for the City of Saskatoon underestimated the growth to a point whereby forecasts for population not expected till 2015 were exceeded in 2010. Short term growth can be very strong, as evidenced by the 5 and15-year growth in Calgary and Edmonton. Accordingly, long term growth for Saskatoon should be viewed with a more realistic approach. The economic growth and trajectory of Calgary over the period 1991 2006 is not directly comparable to Saskatoon`s current growth, whereby multiple head offices and corporations were choosing Calgary as a prime location. As such, it is not feasible to expect Saskatoon to grow at a faster rate than the City of Calgary did over the 15-year period from 1991 to 2006. It is however, feasible to prepare for growth that may be similar to or higher than that of Edmonton.
Table 2.1 Historic Population Growth Comparison in Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg 1996 - 2006
1991 1996 2001 2006 % % % % Change/yr Change/yr Change/yr Change/yr 91 - 96 96 - 01 01 - 06 91 - 06 1.56% 1.73% -0.01% 0.51% 0.11% 0.20% 2.73% 2.98% 1.57% 1.69% 0.03% 0.28% 2.37% 2.55% 1.86% 1.99% 0.44% 0.53% 2.22% 2.42% 1.13% 1.39% 0.19% 0.34%
City of Calgary Calgary CMA City of Edmonton Edmonton CMA City of Winnipeg Winnipeg CMA
879,003 988,193 951,494 1,079,310 666,104 730,372 937,845 1,034,945 619,544 676,594 633,451 694,668
Source: Statistics Canada Community Profiles, 1996, 2001 & 2006 Census
325,000
320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000
300,000
275,000 250,000
240,000 220,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Moderate Growth Scenario 1.05%/annum Conference Board of Canada 1.80%/annum High Growth Scenario 1.95%/annum Modified High Growth (2.14% to year 2021, 1.8% 2021 & Beyond)
FORECAST
2.4 EMPLOYMENT
Total employment was estimated by the City of Saskatoon to be 115,605 in 2009, with steady increases in full-time employment over the past decade (City of Saskatoon, Saskatoon Employment Trends Employment Profile, 2009``, pg 1).
FORECAST
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
3.0%
Source: Conference Board of Canada, Economic Insights into 27 Canadian Metropolitan Economies, 2011
10
Transportation & Distribution Health Care & Social Services Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
SASKATOON
Mining
11
12
Source: Conference Board of Canada, Economic Insights into 27 Canadian Metropolitan Economies, 2011
Referring to Figure 2.6, there are a number of First Nations Bands that have land holdings or Reserves within the city or on the city's periphery. These include , but are not limited to, the following:
Muskeg Lake Cree Nation Yellow Quill First Nation One Arrow First Nation Cowessess First Nation English River First Nation
During the course of this Commercial and Industrial Development Study, the First Nations were consulted to specifically hear about their future plans for growth as it relates to land holdings within the City of Saskatoon. On June 23rd and July 21st, 2011 two meeting sessions were facilitated by the City of Saskatoons Gilles Dorval (Aboriginal Advisor) and held at the office of the Treaty Commissioner. 13
Figure 2.6 Saskatoon & Area First Nations Reserves (as of July, 2011).
14
15
16
3.2
There are a total of 10 zones within the Saskatoon Commercial Zoning Districts hierarchy. The hierarchy ranges from local/neighbourhood level to inner-city and downtown commercial. As the zones progress down or up the hierarchy pyramid, there is typically a correlation with an increase in population density, market penetration and an increased number of permitted uses and/or discretionary uses. Figure 3.1 illustrates the City of Saskatoons existing Commercial Zoning Hierarchy. The purpose of the commercial and industrial hierarchy review was to determine if this structure of relationship amongst development land uses is relevant and still practical for the City of Saskatoon. The assessment of the hierarchy reveals that overall, as with most municipalities across North America, a hierarchy is a valuable tool for Planning Departments, Councils and Development Approving Authorities when assessing commercial development applications. One area of concern as it relates to the current zoning hierarchy and a deviation thereof, lies in the ongoing formation of Direct Control Districts (DCDs), particularly as they pertain to regional retail developments.
17
B1A - Limited Neighbourhood Commercial District B1B - Neighbourhood Commercial - Mixed-Use District Permitted Uses Population Served B1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District B2 - District Commercial District
18
Figure 3.2
RA1 - Reinvestment District 1 AM - Auto Mall District MX1 - Mixed Use District 1 Permitted Uses B5A - Sutherland Commercial Overlay District Population Served DCD1 - Mixed-Use & Retail River Landing DCD3 - Big Box Store Retail Preston Crossing DCD5 - Big Box Store Retail Stonegate DCD6 - Big Box Store Retail Blairmore
NOTE: DCDs were created by the City to respond to community values and business interests of the day. This was a methodical approach to balancing those interests. For example, the city approved large format retail projects, provided the development didn't result in a negative impact in another commercial area or adjacent neighbourhoods.
19
Figure 3.3
Overlapping of the Commercial Zoning Hierarchy and the Additional Commercial-Oriented Zones
B1A B1B RA1 Permitted Uses Population Served AM MX1 B5A DCD1 DCD3 DCD5 DCD6 B1 B2 B3
B4
B4A B5 B5C B6
20
Figure 3.4
IL1 - General light industrial District IL2- Limited Intensity light industrial District IL3 - Limited light industrial District IB - industrial Business District IH - heavy industrial District IH2 - Limited Intensity heavy industrial District
21
22
23
24
These figures are still, nonetheless, indicative of a healthy retail market with strong demand fundamentals.
Saskatoon has not had an annual vacancy rate higher than 4.1% (2003) over the past ten years, which displays the continued hunger for new retail space due to high population growth within the region, as well as a strong retail spending patterns from residents. Retail lease rates typically rise when vacancy is low and this trend is evident in Saskatoon, where lease rates have continued to slowly climb over the last several years. The emergence of higher quality projects such as Stonegate, Preston Crossing and Blairmore have also played a factor to increasing lease rates. In terms of absorption, the City of Saskatoon over the past 5 years has averaged in the range of 153,000 sf per year, as highlighted in Figure 4.2 While the highest lease rates are still located in the downtown core, fetching nearly $30 per sf, some suburban areas top lease rates have nearly caught up, including University Heights ($28 per sf), Stonegate ($26 per sf) and Blairmore ($24 per sf).
Retail growth has continued into 2011 with the continued expansion, use and development of many projects around the city such as Preston Crossing and University Heights Square.
As new development has occurred over the past several years, retail tenants have taken advantage by re-locating to better retail locations or opening new stores to capture untapped segments of the city. Saskatoon saw its trade area increase by 20% in the last decade according to ICR Saskatoon, which has fostered increasing demand for retail space, especially related to new growth areas. According to City of Saskatoon data, as of December 2010, Saskatoon had approximately 10.1 million sf of total retail floor space. Figure 4.1 documents the historic growth of retail floor space in the City of Saskatoon over the 5-year period 2005 to 2010. The current floor space translates to 43 sf of total retail space per capita.
25
Figure 4.2
300,000 250,000 Annual Absorption (SF) 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
26
6,500
6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Conference Board of Canada 2011
Figure 4.4
5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
27
The focus in 2011 will be the completion of Phase 1 of University Heights Square, continued expansion of the retail offering in the Stonegate and Blairmore, along with construction of the new Cabelas at Preston Crossing.
28
Zellers, Safeway, London HMV, La Senza, Le Chateau, Drugs The Source Staples, Sears Home, Dollarama, Sport Mart, Giant Tiger Sleep Country, ICI Paints Extra Foods, Shoppers Running Room, Affinity Drug Mart Credit Union Sport Mart, Marks Work Canadian Tire, Safeway Wearhouse, Urban Planet Bulk Barn, Dollarama, Wal-Mart Supercentre Penningtons, Reitmans, Sleep Country Extra Foods, Shoppers Scotiabank, Warehouse Drug Mart One, Easyhome American Eagle, HMV, The Bay, Sears Mexx, Sport Check Ashley Furniture, Wal-Mart Supercentre, Homesense, Petland, The The Home Depot Brick, Golf Town Extra Foods Zellers Shoppers Drug Mart Medical, Local Restaurants Shoppers Drug Mart, Safeway TanFX, Papa Johns Pizza, Medical Clinic
29
9 10 11
8
Map Source: Map Point 2009
30
18 19 20
Preston Crossing Erindale Centre University Heights Square 503 Nelson Road
Nil 5% 20%
21
Northeast
35,000
Nil
31
18
15 14
13 12 16 17
32
- Commercial Corridor
33
Largest concentration of retail in Saskatoon. Most national retailers have a location along 8th Street. Good mixture of national and independent stores and restaurants. Feeds large amount of vehicle traffic. Contains some of the highest retail lease rates in the city. Centrally located in the city and easy access from all four directions. US retailer Target is slated to occupy the Zellers space at The Centre.
Most retail infrastructure is older. No new projects are currently planned in the pipeline to diversify and expand the retail offering. Retail is very disconnected, no real urban form created. Walkability is almost non-existent, shoppers must drive to adjoining retail centres.
34
Pedestrian friendly streets, especially 2nd Avenue and 21st Street. Anchored by Midtown Plaza. Good amount of restaurants, cafes and pubs. Mix of independent boutique shops and services that cater to a variety of ages. Galaxy Cinema on edge of downtown core. Room for continued infill retail development. Lease rates top out as the highest in the city. Strong access from all areas of the city.
Saskatoon climate makes pedestrian activity difficult during winter months. Most of the retail areas are lacking an identity aside from 2nd Avenue and 21st Street. Toys R Us creates disconnect between downtown core and future River Landing development. Farmers Market is fragmented from Downtown Core activity by virtue of its walking distance from the core as well as location across major transportation arterials.
35
High vehicle traffic counts. Scattered pockets of land available for infill development.
No organized retail aside from Midtown Plaza at the south end of the street. All retail offerings are disconnected from each other. Broken up by light industrial uses. Retail infrastructure is aging. Unfriendly to pedestrian activity. No regional draw. Few national retailers.
36
Pedestrian friendly neighbourhood. Vibrant and youthful. Strong selection of restaurants, pubs and cafes. Different events hosted throughout the year. Strong mix of boutique shops. Unique destination in Saskatoon. Has historic charm. Garners high lease rates. High rate of local ownership creates strong local pride.
Not a large amount of space to grow the commercial corridor due to surrounding residential neighbourhoods.
37
High vehicle traffic counts. Acts as the major commercial thoroughfare for the west side of Saskatoon. Strong access points from around the city. Large variety of retail offerings. Features several major retail anchors such as Midtown Plaza to the east, Confederation Mall in the centre, and Blairmore to the west. Confederation Mall ready for redevelopment.
Aging retail infrastructure. Unfriendly to pedestrian activity. Current retail is disconnected from each other. Lack of retail density along most of the street. Features some of the lowest retail lease rates in the city.
38
Access to downtown. Pedestrian activity. Home to many independently owned local businesses. Street front retail creates commercial connectivity. Commercial vacancy has been decreasing. Historic area. Continued revitalization efforts.
Aging retail infrastructure. Features the lowest retail lease rates in the city. Lower household income profile. Lacks destination commercial.
39
Retail component is almost complete and 80% leased as of April 2011. Contains a large selection of neighbourhood services such as insurance, banks, spas, salons and medical clinics. Future grocery store planned to be 50,000 sf. Lease rates ranging from $22/sf to $28/sf.
Will be only the third Cabelas location in Canada, and first in Saskatchewan.
Expected to draw consumers from around the province due to its regional nature. Will create more than 100 new jobs for the Saskatoon market. 40
42
43
44
Positive retail absorption is expected to continue to occur as new projects come online, especially in expanding residential suburban locations such as Blairmore and University Heights.
The strength of 8th Street East currently draws shoppers from around the city, as many residents view it as a one stop shop for their retailing needs. Retail density in this commercial corridor is acceptable, however there are no pedestrian friendly retail projects, with the entire area very auto oriented with shoppers needing to drive from store to store. The Broadway corridor continues to be one of the most vibrant retail corridors in terms of identity and pedestrian activity, and the low vacancy rates and high lease rates display the desire for retailers to locate in this youthful district. Enclosed malls represent a mixed-bag for Saskatoon. On the one hand Midtown Plaza, The Centre and the Mall at Lawson Heights are performing quite well, while on the other hand Market Mall and Confederation Mall are currently looking to re-define themselves. Confederation Mall is in the midst of a $15 million redevelopment which will hopefully bring more consumers and higher rents to the Confederation Suburban commercial area which has struggled lately in terms of both vacancy and lease rates.
45
46
5.2 CURRENT DEMAND ANALYSIS 5.2.1 RETAIL SPACE PER CAPITA ALL RETAIL
To analyze whether Saskatoon is currently under retailed or over retailed at a high level, Saskatoons retail space per capita ratio was assessed in comparison to other comparable cities in Western Canada, as summarized in Table 5.1.
Total retail inventories from Edmonton, Calgary and Regina were extracted from multiple sources for general averages and thus accuracy, while population was sourced to the most recent available City Municipal Census estimates. Depending on the source, retail inventory will vary due to the inclusion or exclusion of certain commercial categories.
Saskatoon has the largest retail space per capita ratio out of the four cities studied. This can be explained due to the fact that Saskatoon acts as a regional retail hub to many of the smaller communities in Saskatchewan, especially those to the north of the city. Calgary has a much lower retail per capita ratio since cities such as Lethbridge and Red Deer have many of the same operators and residents do not need to travel for most items. Edmonton and Calgary also have major retail projects outside of their city limits, such as Cross Iron Mills, which are not factored into the total retail inventory, while Saskatoon and Regina do not have any large retail projects outside of their city limits.
5.2.2 RETAIL SPACE PER CAPITA SHOPPING MALL AND POWER CENTRE FLOORSPACE ONLY
In addition to examining the total retail inventory of the city, another per capita ratio looks at just the amount of Shopping Mall and Power Centre retail space. According to ICSC, the ratio of shopping centre space in the United States is estimated at 23.1 sf per capita. Accordingly, Table 5.2 documents the retail space per capita ratios of Shopping Mall and Power Centre space for major Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) across Canada. This data was released in the Fall 2011 Canadian Retail Report as published by Colliers International Vancouver. As seen in Table 5.2, the Saskatoon CMA is estimated to have 18.38 sf/capita of Shopping Mall and Power Centre Space combined, which places it in the middle of the other CMAs profiled. In fact, the overall average of all the CMAs profiled in Canada is 19.18 sf/capita, suggesting that Saskatoon is relatively balanced, but could absorb slightly more demand. The Colliers report also revealed that over the period 2010 to 2011, Saskatoons ratio actually declined by 1.8% suggesting that demand is showing signs of falling behind the rapid population growth experienced in the city. 47
Table 5.1 Retail Per Capita Comparison Chart (Year End 2010)
City
Saskatoon Edmonton Calgary Regina
Total Retail SF
10,084,154 26,070,000 32,000,000 7,251,709
Population
231,900 782,439 1,071,515 196,000
The analysis of spending as detailed in Appendix C, applies per capita retail spending (excluding auto sales) as sourced to the Environics Analytics Western Canada 2011 database. For the estimated per capita retail spending figure (estimated at $10,274 in 2011), new population growth based on the moderate, high, Conference Board and modified high growth estimates were applied to determine the aggregate new total spending generated by new population growth. Next, the new population retail spending pie is divided by an approximate retail sales productivity figure (estimated at $275 per sf) to determine the estimated annual retail demand (in sf). The figure of $275 per sf is an estimate based on the International Council of Shopping Centres (ICSC) Shopping Canadian Mall Performance Prairie Mall Sales Report, which is further sensitized to reflect the total retail inventory within the city (i.e. Street Front Retail, Power Centres, Downtown and other non-Shopping Mall retail). Finally, this annual retail demand estimate is grown cumulatively with the population growth to grow the amount of new retail space that could be supported by new population growth. For example, using the Conference Board of Canada population growth rate of 1.8% applied to Environics Analytics/Statistics Canada, estimated retail expenditure for 2012 for the City of Saskatoon reveals the following estimated retail demand for the year 2012:
$10,428
Victoria Vancouver Montreal Winnipeg Ottawa-Gatineau Saskatoon Toronto Calgary Halifax Edmonton Total - Above CMAs
3,383,220 24,828,690 39,799,040 8,249,560 13,965,730 3,058,920 100,286,750 19,263,660 7,521,250 21,464,210 241,821,030
sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf
1,325,160 8,003,670 16,806,050 3,450,400 8,280,530 1,817,670 26,444,300 11,333,400 3,257,720 11,378,590 92,097,490
sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf
13.15 13.73 14.66 15.53 18.25 18.38 22.08 24.62 26.73 27.92 19.18
Sources: The Retail Report Canada, Fall 2011 Edition, Colliers International Vancouver Centre for the Study of Commercial Activity Annual Demographic Estimates: Sub-Provincial Areas 2005 - 2010, Statistics Canada, Cat No. 91-214-x
Furthermore, Saskatoons regional context in which it serves a much wider market than only within the citys boundaries, suggests that a per capita ratio of Shopping Mall and Power Centre space for the City of Saskatoon could feasibly accommodate an increase to approximately 20 sf/capita over the next few years. In so doing, Saskatoon could be positioned in a similar trajectory relative to Calgary, Halifax and Edmonton, who have similar regional locational contexts.
5.3
RETAIL EXPENDITURE
An additional layer of retail demand, in addition to per capita ratios and historic absorption, is premised on retail spending (aka expenditure) growth in the Market. While it is acknowledged that Saskatoons normal retail trade area extends well beyond the city's boundaries, for the purposes of this study, the citys population is used in forecasting retail demand through spending. .
4,406
$45,945,667 $275 per sf 167,075 sf
48
This is consistent with current market sentiment which suggests there is some degree of latent demand in the market for retail floor space in the City of Saskatoon. While this is not a concrete figure, it does provide an order of magnitude for current retail demand conditions, further validated by the declining retail space per capita ratios.
$10,274
231,900 $2,832,456,140 $275 per sf 8,663,477 sf 10,084,154 sf -1,420,677 sf
However, the City of Saskatoons retail does not serve just city residents and thus it is reasonable to assume that when factoring in the regional population base demand is more balanced.
For example, if the City of Saskatoon CMA population is used, estimated at 265,300 (using Colliers International Fall Retail Report Statistics Canada figures), the estimated floor space demand increases to 9.91 million sf, with an estimated retail inventory to 10.58 million sf (estimate based on adding 500,000 sf of retail in surrounding CMA communities). The result is a residual demand in the range of approximately 600,000 sf.
49
3,500,000
3,233,620
3,000,000
250,000
275,000
300,000
325,000
2,485,236
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,604,431
1,000,000
500,000
620,832
0 225,000
250,000
275,000
300,000
325,000
350,000 50
10.7 million sf at a population of 250,000 (43.5 sf/capita) 11.7 million sf at a population of 275,000 (42.8 sf/capita) 12.6 million sf at a population of 300,000 (41.9 sf/capita) 13.3 million sf at a population of 325,000 (40.9 sf/capita)
Under the above growth scenarios, the city should be well positioned to accommodate future market-driven and tenant-driven growth while maintaining a sustainable total ratio in the range of 40 - 42 sf per capita. The implementation of DCDs at Preston Crossing, Stonegate and Blairmore were successful in the early years of ensuring that the city did not overbuild and impact other areas, which given the economic challenges faced in 2008/2009, helped create relative stability in Saskatoons retail environment. It is this stability that has resulted in todays latent demand and thus laid a foundation for the next wave of growth opportunities in attracting tenants and progressive development formats.
To maintain future stability and competitive balance in all areas of the city, it is important that the City of Saskatoon continue to not overbuild, but rather use benchmarks and performance indicators, such as the retail space per capita, vacancy, market-driven and tenant-driven demands, as key variables to managing growth in a way that allows Saskatoon to maintain a solid footing in the province and nationally.
At the end of the day, retail demand can only be filled if the tenant prospects are available and accommodated in formats suitable and appropriate for them. Accordingly, the demand forecasts outlined herein provide a strong foundation for identifying the timing, amount and applicable formats for retail growth in the city in response to population growth dynamics as well as tenant opportunities and requirements. 51
5.6
The City of Saskatoons current retail inventory when quantified against the estimated current demand is largely in balance.
52
The Urban Land Institute Office Development Handbook defines Class A office space as buildings that have excellent location and access, attract high quality tenants, and are managed professionally. Building materials are high quality and rents are competitive with other new buildings. Class B buildings have good locations, management, and construction, and tenant standards are high. Buildings should have very little functional obsolescence and deterioration. Class C buildings are typically 15 to 25 years old but are maintaining steady occupancy.
53
Another notable suburban office building is the Preston Centre, a 3storey office building located 8th Street and Preston Avenue. In addition, office buildings located within the University Heights SDA have been highly successful. As such, there are plans for future construction of office buildings that will, over time, create an office cluster in the University Heights SDA. One example of a successful office project in University Heights is Innovation Place. Innovation Place is located within the University of Saskatoon Management Area adjacent to Preston Avenue North, and is a cluster of buildings outfitted for research and other professional services. It is the city's only example of an office campus and a prime office research facility in Saskatoon with 140 businesses employing nearly 3,000 people. There have been a number of developments and redevelopments of historic or older buildings in the north and south ends of downtown, which have become a popular trend among investors. In the south for example, the Capitol Centre, which was originally a theatre was recently redeveloped into an office building which contributed an additional 31,378 sf of office space to downtown Saskatoon. The asking lease rate for office space in the Capitol Centre is $21 per sf.
2007
2010 Q2
2010 Q4
Net Rate/SF
$30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Victoria Vancouver 2008 Edmonton 2009 Calgary 2010 Q2 Saskatoon 2010 Q4 Regina
Sources: Colliers International, Saskatoon office Market Report Q4 2010 Saskatoon office Study, Brunsdon Junor Johnson Appraisals Ltd., 2010 The Star Phoenix, 2011
54
sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf sf
Sources: MXD Development Strategists, Commercial Brokerage Market Reports & City Government Municipal Census Estimates 2010
55
56
12
14 21 1318 19 2 1716 1 15 11 3 20 6
10
74 85
57
River Centre within the River Landing Development Project 475 - 2nd Avenue South
58
6.3.3
Adjacent to the Saskatoon John F. Diefenbaker International Airport, is a proposed office cluster that could provide a significant amount of suburban office space, in an area of the city where higher quality office space is compatible and in demand. The Aerogreen Business Park, termed The Gateway to Saskatoon is located within the area of 45th Street and Cynthia Street. The Business Park is zoned IB - industrial Business District and will contribute approximately 50 acres of office park inventory to Saskatoon. The 50 acres will be divided between 6 to 7 acre parcels which will provide substantial opportunities for businesses looking to build their business to suit.
60
Note: No image is available Project #5 Icon Building at 400 Block 2nd Ave N.c 61
Figure 6.6 Proposed and Under Development Suburban Office Clusters in Saskatoon
10
Stonebridge Business Park Clarence Ave/Stonebridge
10
9
62
These office development trends are influenced by Saskatoons population growth as well as historic employment figures, providing a moderate baseline for potential office space throughout the City of Saskatoon both downtown and suburban.
Table 6.3 depicts some of the locational opportunities and constraints for Downtown and Suburban office type projects. A number of the existing suburban office clusters are strategically located to benefit and/or support major special nodes of the city. For example, the Aerogreen Business Park will have a synergetic relationship with the airport and the Stonebridge Business Park will benefit from the existing office and commercial development in the south area of Saskatoon. Suburban office clusters provide the bonus of ample parking space and is a major advantage for businesses to locate there. However, a number of proposed office buildings in the downtown are including parking garages on one or two levels of their towers. With new parking becoming available in downtown Saskatoon, the suburban parking advantage may not be a large deciding factor for future tenants. Proximity to many residents neighbourhoods, creating shorter commute times is a positive advantage for suburban office that will likely play a large factor into the future for growth areas such as the East SDA. The sustainable economic growth of the province of Saskatchewan is having a positive economic impact on the City of Saskatoon. Projected population growth of Saskatoon will not meet the employment demand in the future. As a result, the City of Saskatoon may need to recruit and retain new talent from outside the city and the province, dependent upon existing provincial immigration policies.
DOWNTOWN OFFICE
Opportunities
Proximity to services & amenities Access to Public Transportation Exposure/High Visibility Proximity to Networking Events Central Location can attract employees from all over the city, not just from one area More compact land utilization and density
SUBURBAN OFFICE
Opportunities
Proximity to residential neighbourhoods Parking Availability Affordable Lease Rates Ease of personal vehicle commute Opportunity to form business clusters Availability of Space and office Expansion
Constraints
Parking not widely available (relative to suburban) High Lease Rates Traffic Congestion Land not widely available for office building expansion
Constraints
Proximity to services & amenities Public Transportation may not be available or is not readily accessible Inconvenient for some customer-oriented businesses
64
65
66
67
1,998,691
68.2
295,182
500,000
10.1
926,423
1,000,000
10.0
0.0 275,000 300,000 325,000
0 250,000
68
As with retail, the City of Saskatoons potential for office growth is not just dependent upon population or employment growth, but also on the ability of economic development agencies to attract new businesses to the city. Saskatoon, much like Calgary, is a corporate city and as such the economic growth of the potash, mining and agricultural industries will play a pivotal role in Saskatoons ability to attract major office tenants in the future, thereby fulfilling forecasted office demand. Saskatoons downtown is currently a low density downtown, but this is expected to change as the city grows over the next 15 to 20 years. In order for Saskatoon to be competitive with cities such as Winnipeg, Calgary or Edmonton, its downtown must be seen as providing a corporate office environment and culture. Demand forecasts therefore suggest that downtown should be the first priority for major office development. Areas such as the Airport Business Area and the future East Sector will also serve important roles in creating future employment centres as the city grows and reaches a population of 325,000.
Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 21 sf per capita. However, the figures above do not take into account the potential addition of proposed projects totaling 763,800 sf. Assuming that the 763,800 sf of space is introduced by the time the city reaches 250,000 would result in the following cumulative citywide growth:
5.9 million sf at a population of 250,000 6.5 million sf at a population of 275,000 7.1 million sf at a population of 300,000 7.6 million sf at a population of 325,000
Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 23 sf per capita thus placing the city in a strong, yet feasible and sustainable range. 69
70
8.2
Overall, demand for hotels or accommodations is largely affected by economic conditions (local, provincial and national) and visitor patterns, local/regional demand generators and overall business confidence. Short Term forecasts for the Canadian hotel sector are in line with the overall Canadian economy in so far as a recovery is underway after the slowdown of the past two to three years. Growth expected to continue in 2011, but at more modest rates and thus more stable than in the peaks felt in 2008. Saskatoon has been one of the more successful hotel markets by virtue of not being over developed. However, the inventory is aging and showing signs of pent up demand.
71
Source: PKF Outlook For Canadian Lodging Sector 2010/2011, October 2010
SASKATCHEWAN MARKET
Source: Smith Travel Research, HVS Int'l Canadian Monthly Hotel Review (y-o-y April 2011 to April 2010)
Source: PKF Outlook For Canadian Lodging Sector 2010/2011, October 2010
72
73
Four Points by Sheraton 3 Star Colonial Square Inn & Suites 3 Star Best Western Blairmore 3 1/2 Star Confederation Inn 2 1/2 Star Westgate Inn 2 Star Bridgewater West Hotel 3 Star Best Western Harvest Inn 3 1/2 Star Thriftlodge 3 Star Riviera Motor Inn 3 Star Days Inn Saskatoon North 3 1/2 Star Heritage Inn Hotel & Convention Centre 3 1/2 Star Saskatoon Inn Hotel & Conference Centre 3 1/2 Star Country Inn & Suites by Carlson 3 1/2 Star Sandman Hotel Saskatoon 3 1/2 Star Travelodge Hotel Saskatoon 3 1/2 Star Comfort Inn 3 Star Super 8 Motel 3 Star Motel 6 2 Star TOTAL (Existing Inventory ONLY)
74
16 17 14 15 12 9 10 11 8 7
13
5 3 4
1
Source: MXD Development Strategists, Smith Travel Research 2011
75
Ramada Hotel & Golf Dome 3 1/2 Star Northgate Motor Inn 2 Star Holiday Inn Express Hotel & Suites 3 1/2 Star Patricia Hotel 3 Star Park Town Hotel 3 1/2 Star Holiday Inn (Under Construction) 3 1/2 Star Hilton Garden Inn Downtown 3 1/2 Star Hotel Senator 3 Star Sheraton Cavalier Hotel 4 1/2 Star Delta Bessborough Hotel 4 1/2 Star Radisson Hotel 4 Star Proposed TOTAL (Existing Inventory ONLY)
76
21
22 23 24 25
26
27 89
29 30
77
78
9.2
Table 9.1 illustrates the cumulative annual demand for a hotel room growth specifically for the City of Saskatoon over the next 15 to 20 years. Although the occupancy figures shown in Table 9.1 illustrate an escalating occupancy, this figure assumes the current level of inventory over time. Consequently, the increasing occupancy is illustrative of demand and opportunity for new hotel space in which the target industry standard for occupancy should be in the range of 60% to 65%.
Forecasted Growth Per Annum
9.3
HOTEL ROOM DEMAND 2011 Saskatoon Hotel Room Inventory 3,445 2015 3,624 2021 3,624 2026 3,624 2030 3,624
Figure 9.1 illustrates the cumulative annual demand for a hotel room growth specifically for the City of Saskatoon over the next 20 years.
Unlike retail, office or industrial demand which has a correlation to population growth forecasts, hotel demand is less driven by population, and much more by visitor dynamics of the region, such as the visitor profile (Leisure, Business, Delegate, etc.) as well as demand generators in the vicinity of a potential project. Demand generators can include major sporting facilities in which Sports Tourism can play a role, major entertainment districts, convention and conference venues, and major business and shopping destinations. All of these factors are critical in identifying hotel demand as well as critical site location criteria, most notably proximity to major arterials and transportation hubs such as Airports or Rail Stations.
Projected Saskatoon Room Demand Leisure Commercial Total Projected Saskatoon Room Supply 40% 60% 100%
1,257,425
1,322,760
1,326,384
1,326,384
1,326,384
37
194
450
686
889
69.1%
70.0%
76.9%
83.3%
88.9%
Source: MXD Development Strategists 2011, Smith Travel Research, Colliers PKF Note: 2012, 2016 & 2020 represent Leap Years and therefore have 366 days against which supply is calculated Forecasted Occupancy as estimated by MXD Development Strategists reflecting historic average and industry standard given the Saskatoon & Saskatchewan Market profile.
79
81
82
2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 Vacancy Net Absorption Construction Rental Rate
3
stable
stable
stable
stable
stable
Source: Colliers International Saskatoon Market Reports Q1 & Q3 2010 and Q1 & Q3 2011
Saskatoon Industrial Market Expands at Record Pace, Colliers International 83 Saskatoon, October 19, 2011
2.12%
Ca lg ar y
gin a
to n
at oo n
uv e
ip e
on
Re
Va nc o
in n
Sa sk
Ed m
To r
on
to
84
Most of these industrial areas are located along an important major transportation arterial either highway or rail or both. However, as the city continues to grow outward, as in the case of the City Yards relocation from Downtown and the transitioning of the Warehouse District, there may be opportunities to look to the future for adaptive re-use or densification/intensification of strategically located industrial lands. This intensification could help to promote more a more compact urban form. Currently, as shown in Figure 10.5 and Table 10.1, approximately 43% of the city's industrial inventory is located in the North End/Marquis area (6.7 million sf of 15.5 million sf total).
As the City of Saskatoon grows, industrial land use will likely require the largest amount of land and therefore new locations should be explored that help to provide strong employment nodes closer to where the future population clusters are planned or envisioned.
85
North/Hudson Bay/Marquis 2,975 acres 6.73 million sf 3.3% vacancy $400,000 - $500,000/ac
Industrial Vacancy by Sector North End/Hudson Bay/Marquis Kelsey Woodlawn Airport Agriplace CN Industrial Holiday Park Riversdale Sutherland TOTAL
Source: ICR Q2 2010 Industrial Survey
2008 158,000 sf 142,000 sf 18,000 sf 16,000 sf 164,500 sf 48,300 sf 18,500 sf 45,000 sf 610,300 sf
Vacancy (As of Q2 2010) 3.3% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 2.6%
87
Source: City of Saskatoon 2007 Industrial Land Inventory AND Three Year Land Development Program, Sept 2010
88
North Industrial comprising Marquis, Hudson Bay, North and Airport Business Area as well as smaller pockets such as City Park comprise 73% of the total city industrial land. The Marquis Industrial area alone comprises over 42% of the Norths Industrial Land or 31% of the total city industrial land. The South represents the next most significant area comprising 14%. With the exception of the Kelsey Woodlawn area which historically has served as an important area for companies looking to be part of the critical mass, but typically in older or less expensive areas, the Central area should be viewed upon as a transitional area for future non-industrial uses. This has already begun to occur as a large part of the Central industrial area has begun to transition into the Warehouse District. Figure 10.7 provides representative imagery of the current industrial inventory in the City of Saskatoon, followed by a profile two future progressive industrial business parks proposed of differing sizes Whitestone Business Park and Aerogreen Business Park. 89
90
91
92
11.2
To determine the feasible warranted demand for industrial space throughout the entire City of Saskatoon as it grows towards a population threshold of 325,00 total residents, a custom demand model was created, based on market-driven forecasts. The model takes into account three different variables in formulating demand through triangulation: population growth (1.8% per annum), employment growth, and historic absorption. Through this triangulation, a blended average is created so that no one variable is relied upon for calculating the future industrial demand. For historic absorption rates, data was sourced directly from the City of Saskatoon to establish consistency with total industrial inventory. Recognizing that absorption rates fluctuate from year to year depending on when new industrial projects are completed and absorbed into the market, a five year average was calculated to understand how the Saskatoon market fared before, during and after the economic downturn. This average allows the model to negate any anomalies. Similar to the office demand model, employment growth data from the Conference Board of Canada was used to define the amount of industrial space needed on an ongoing basis as new jobs are created. Sectors used include manufacturing, warehousing and wholesale trade.
93
8,000,000
350.0
250.0 150.0 50.0 -50.0
250,000
275,000
3,312,485
7,000,000
230.5
7,063,218
300,000
325,000
5,326,974
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,312,485
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
1,097,519
0 225,000
250,000
275,000
300,000
325,000
350,000 94
The current amount of land available in the North Industrial area is more than the forecasted amount of demand for the next approximate 20 years. The North Industrial Area, as it is currently zoned, could also accommodate additional economic-development driven demand above and beyond that forecast in this study. This land allocation further realizes the significance that industrial land can play in the future growth of the city and as such envisions an additional urban holding area, in the East SDA, that could potentially accommodate future demand above and beyond market-driven forecasts beyond the 325,000 population threshold. Overall, the City of Saskatoon currently has enough land within its city boundaries to accommodate market-driven as well as economicdevelopment driven demand beyond a population threshold of 325,000 residents.
Growth under the above scenario would equate to an average ratio of 68 sf per capita. However, the figures above do not take into account the potential addition of proposed projects totaling 273,800 sf. Accordingly, the industrial demand suggests a future allocation for almost 500 acres of additional new industrial demand as the city reaches a population of325,000.
Saskatoon Industrial Market Expands at Record Pace, Colliers International Saskatoon, October 19, 2011
95
96
Figure 12.1 Projected Cumulative New Demand in Floor Space and Land Area in City of Saskatoon For Retail, Office, Hotel & Industrial (At city's Population Threshold of 325,000)
14,000,000 12,000,000 Demand (Square Feet) 10,000,000
Although the correlation of demand can be tied to potential time frames, for the purpose of this particular Commercial and Industrial Development Study, the demand forecasts are quantified against critical population thresholds expected to be reached and surpassed over an approximate 20 year time frame, which is most realistic and feasible for market-driven forecasts.
782.1 800.0
700.0 600.0 500.0 Demand (Acres)
7,060,000
540,000
400.0
12,830,000
199.2
0
RETAIL
68.3
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL HOTEL
11.3
0.0
TOTAL
97
*** Approximate Timing is based on forecasted population growth scenario of 1.8% per annum over the period 2012 to 2032
98
Demand Allocation (SF) 220,000 600,000 90,000 505,000 0 390,000 1,025,000 400,000 3,230,000
Acres Required 12.6 34.4 2.8 33.1 0.0 25.6 78.4 12.2 199.2
Hectares Required 5.1 13.9 1.1 13.4 0.0 10.4 31.8 5.0 80.7
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 1,230,000 770,000 2,000,000 56.5 11.8 68.3 22.9 4.8 27.6
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 4,210,000 2,850,000 0 7,060,000 540,000 Total ALL SDAs Summary 12,830,000 241.6 261.7 0.0 503.3 11.3 782.1 97.8 106.0 0.0 203.8 4.6 316.7
Table 12.3
Hotel
Notes: Totals do not add up with those in Figure 2.1 due to rounding. The District (College Quarter) is designated as separate from District to highlight the specific size and nature of the Universitys plans for this future mixed-use development. The 90,000 sf of floor space shown here is for retail only.
10,084,154 sf 3,233,620 sf 4,815,152 sf 1,998,691 sf 15,230,907 sf 7,063,218 sf 30,130,213 sf 12,295,529 sf HOTEL 3,393 rooms 889 rooms Note: Forecasted floor space demand of 12,295,529 sf accounts for a further 533,613 sf
13,317,774 sf 31.4% 6,813,843 sf 16.1% 22,294,125 sf 52.5% 42,425,742 sf 100.0% 4,282 rooms n/a does not include hotel, which
99
100
101
Commercial Zones:
B2 - District Commercial District B3 - Medium Density Arterial Commercial District
Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R1A - One Unit Residential District R2 - One Unit & Two Unit Residential District RM2 - Low/Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District M3 - General Institutional Services District FUD - Future Urban Development District
102
103
104
CONFEDERATION
The Confederation SDA has a variety of land uses although it is primarily residential in most areas. The residential zoning ranges from single family detached units on large lots to medium and high density multiple-unit dwellings. The density increases when the land is closer to the Core Neighbourhood. This area also has a number of institutional land uses, represented by M1, M2 and M3 zones. There are commercial zones that complement the residential neighbourhoods including the neighbourhood commercial, district commercial and arterial/suburban commercial zones. Big box retail and other large commercial development formats are not identified within the long range vision or current planning zoning for the Confederation SDA. At one point, the Confederation Mall served as a core enclosed mall destination, but over time this mall lost market share and is now undergoing a slow transition and repositioning, as evidenced by the relocation of the Canadian Tire. Additionally, there are small parcels located in the south end of Confederation SDA that are currently being used for general light and heavy industrial uses. These parcels surround and complement the CN industrial tracks in the south area of the sector.
Industrial Zones:
IL1 General Light industrial District IL1(H) - General light industrial District IH - Heavy Industrial District
Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R1 - Large Lot One Unit Residential District R1A - One Unit Residential District R1A(H) - One Unit Residential District R1B - Small Lot One-Unit Residential District R2 - One & Two Unit Residential District R2A - Low Density Residential Infill District RM1 - Low Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District RMHL - Mobile Home Lot District M1 - Local Institutional Service District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District Source: Zoning Bylaw No. 8770, City of Saskatoon, 2011
105
106
Protect the industrial base in Southwest Industrial Park, as well as densify the area once the area is properly serviced.
Commercial opportunities in the Hampton Village neighbourhood. Continue redevelopment of the Confederation Suburban Centre. Potential Uses Heavy Industrial Light Industrial Suburban Office Retail
107
Commercial Zones:
B1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District B2 - District Commercial District B4 - Arterial & Suburban Commercial District B4A - Special Suburban Centre & Arterial Commercial District
Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R1A - One Unit Residential District R1A(H) - One Unit Residential District R1B - Small Lot One-Unit Residential District R2 - One & Two-Unit Residential District R2A - Low Density Residential Infill District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM3(H) - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District
Industrial Zones:
IB - industrial Business District IL1 - General light industrial District IL1(H) - General light industrial District IL2 - Limited Intensity light industrial District
108
109
Circle Drive South project expected to be completed in 2012 will connect Nutana and Confederation sectors.
Continued commercial development expected for Stonebridge neighbourhood in the form of retail and office. Population growth will continue to occur in Stonebridge as the neighbourhood builds out.
110
Commercial Zones:
B1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District B2 - District Commercial District B3 - Medium Density Arterial Commercial District B4 - Arterial & Suburban Commercial District B5 - Inner-City Commercial Corridor District B6 - Downtown Commercial District
Other Zones:
R2 - One & Two-Unit Residential District R2A - Low Density Residential Infill District R1A - One Unit Residential District RM1 - Low Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM2 - Low/Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM5 - High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District M1 - Local Institutional Service District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District M4 - Core Area Institutional Service District
Industrial Zones:
IL1 - General Light industrial District IH - Heavy Industrial District
111
112
Saskatoons first AA office building (high quality finishes with state-ofthe-art fit outs) currently under construction at 2nd Avenue and 26th Street E.
River Landing project (DCD1) looks to become a great mixed-use waterfront destination. Potential Development Opportunities Focus on redevelopment of Warehouse District into a trendy and vibrant neighbourhood. Create commercial connection between 20th Street E and the southern riverfront, particularly along 2nd and 3rd Avenue. Continue densification of downtown core with office and retail functions. This can be accomplished through brownfield development and redevelopment of underperforming sites (e.g. surface parking lots). Potential Uses Street Front Retail Mixed-Use Office Hotel
113
Commercial Zones:
B1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District B1A - Limited Neighbourhood Commercial District B2 - District Commercial District B4 - Arterial & Suburban Commercial District
Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R1 - Large Lot One Unit Residential District R1A - One Unit Residential District R2 - One & Two Unit Residential District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM5 - High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District M1 - Local Institutional Service District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District PUD - Planned Unit Development District
Industrial Zones:
IL1 - General Light industrial District IL3 - Limited Light industrial District IH - Heavy Industrial District
114
115
Due to primarily residential nature of the sector, no major plans for development are expected to occur throughout most of Lawson SDA aside from the Warehouse District.
Population growth will continue to be minimal. Removal of CPR Switching Yards and City Yards. Southern edge of sector area is planned as Warehouse District. Commercial, mixed-use residential and Institutional planned for Warehouse District. 25th Street Extension Project will allow for greater access. Potential Development Opportunities Focus on redevelopment of Warehouse District into a trendy and vibrant neighbourhood.
Light industrial growth will need to occur as intensification and redevelopment within Kelsey Woodlawn area.
Potential Uses Light Industrial Retail Office above Retail Mixed-Use Hotel
116
Industrial Zones:
IL1 - General Light Industrial District IL1(H) - General Light Industrial District IL2 - Limited Intensity Light industrial District IL3 - Limited Light Industrial District IH - Heavy Industrial District IH2 - Limited Heavy Industrial District DM3 - Rural Industrial
Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R2(H) - One & Two Residential Units FUD - Future Urban Development District
Source: Zoning Bylaw No. 8770, City of Saskatoon, 2011 * The H symbol is a Holding Symbol that identifies the future use of the land, subject to the OCP designation.
117
118
AeroGreen Business Park to be Saskatoons latest campus-style business park, located adjacent to airport.
Continued development of Marquis Industrial Park. Land prices will continue to increase. Availability of prime industrial land within city limits will continue to decrease. City would like continue focus on light and heavy industrial. Potential Development Opportunities Redevelopment and intensification due to future limited land supply. Creation of small scale Airport City (refer to Appendix D for definition of Airport City). This could be fulfilled in the Airport Business Area, given the airport adjacency and transportation infrastructure. Potential Uses Heavy Industrial Light Industrial Suburban Office Hotel (in Airport Business Area) Arterial Retail (along Idylwyld Dr N)
119
Commercial Zones:
B1 - Neighbourhood Commercial District B2 - District Commercial District
Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District R1 - Large Lot One Unit Residential District R1A - One Unit Residential District R2 - One & Two-Unit Residential District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM5 - High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District RMHC - Mobile Home Court District RMHL - Mobile home Lot District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District PUD - Planned Unit Development District FUD - Future Urban Development District
120
Open plots of land for development still lay in the southeast, which will be developed as part of the Rosewood neighbourhood.
Zoning is residential, commercial, institutional and future urban development district. Year-end 2010 estimated 672,022 sf retail space Year-end 2010 estimated 140,828 sf office space Year-end 2010 estimated 54,455 sf of industrial space
121
Continued residential growth as development moves eastwards into the Rosewood neighbourhood.
Build-out of commercial development in Lakewood Suburban Centre. Development of commercial node in Rosewood to serve the neighbourhoods commercial needs. Potential Development Opportunities
Light industrial in the Urban Holding Triangle, given the location along the potential future perimeter highway. Servicing issues may have to be dealt with, suggesting this could be a longer term opportunity.
Potential Uses Retail Office above Retail Light Industrial (including storage facilities)
122
Commercial Zones:
B1A - Limited Neighbourhood Commercial District B1B - Neighbourhood Commercial - Mixed Use District B4 - Arterial & Suburban Commercial District B4A - Special Suburban Centre & Arterial Commercial District
Other Zones:
AG - Agricultural District FUD - Future Urban Development District M1 - Local Institutional Service District M2 - Community Institutional Service District M3 - General Institutional Service District R1A - One Unit Residential District R2 - One & Two Unit Residential District RM2 - Low/Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM3 - Medium Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RM4 - Medium/High Density Multiple-Unit Dwelling District RMTN - Townhouse Residential District RMHC - Mobile Home Court District
Industrial Zones:
IL1 - General Light Industrial District IH - Heavy Industrial District Source: Zoning Bylaw No. 8770, City of Saskatoon, 2011
123
124
Based on the Vision 2057 document, the timing for transitions of land uses suggests infill and larger scale sustainable urban development is most likely to occur after 2030. Consequently this time fame likely falls outside of the forecasted population threshold of 325,000. The more immediate land uses within the University lands include the College Quarter development, which proposes a mix of uses including neighbourhood scale retail, office above retail and a 200-room hotel development (as envisioned in the College Quarter concept plans).
125
New industrial development can occur within Sutherland as older uses vacate, which is consistent with the Local Area Plan and the Central Ave Master Plan.
Continue to grow Innovation Place Research Park as demand is warranted. Potential Uses Retail Mixed-Use Suburban Office Light Industrial Hotel 126
Currently undeveloped and going through an extensive planning and visioning process.
Land is currently used mainly for agricultural uses. Land is currently un-serviced. Large amounts of privately-owned land. No major constraints of land for suburban development. City of Saskatoon boundary was altered in 2010 to include the East SDA within city limits. Looking To the Future Land is sufficient for 6-9 future neighbourhoods, 6-9 neighbourhoods, as well as a Suburban Centre, District Neighbourhood major, employment node.
Future suburban shopping clusters could also benefit from a streamlined or consolidated zoning that prioritizes and allows for a better critical mix and critical mass of smaller retailers and restaurants along with large format retailers. This would be an efficient and more progressive approach than the current Direct Control Districts in place at Preston Crossing, Stonegate and Blairmore. The resulting benefit could be in providing a more attractive format for securing new-tomarket tenants and developers.
128
129
Since arable land can often be unsuitable for development, MXD Development Strategists focused on the undeveloped category for vacant land for most SDAs. Blairmore and the East SDA focus primarily on arable land since the majority of land is still considered arable due to the citys growth expanding outwards.
With 1,775 undeveloped acres, and 14,013 arable acres, Saskatoon has a large inventory of land available for future development, and will not be hindered over the next several decades as it builds out. There is an additional 1,420 acres of unclassified land, primarily in the University Heights, Lakewood and Blairmore SDAs.
2,404 Ac
39 Ac
2,675 Ac
848 Ac 68 Ac
4,758 Ac 5,482 Ac
143 Ac
791 Ac
Table 14.1
Suburban Centre Blairmore Confederation Core East Lakewood Lawson North Industrial Nutana University Heights Totals
Source: City of Saskatoon, July 2011 Note: Arable Land is defined as Farmland and largely comprises lands recently annexed by the city or applies to any land outside of a development area that could be farmed. Unclassified lands represent lands that have yet to be allocated a land use designation or zoning. Undeveloped land represents lands that have been designated by city for various uses, but have yet to be developed with a specific building or land use.
130
14.2.1
LAND ALLOCATION
Table 14.2 and Figure 14.2 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Blairmore SDA, based on future market demand. With the Blairmore Suburban Centre already taking shape, the retail needs of future residents will be primarily met. There are opportunities for smaller retail projects that could complement the SmartCentres development as new neighbourhoods are built and the population base establishes itself. A total of 380,000 sf of new additional retail is allocated for Blairmore, above and beyond the estimated 210,000 sf currently developed. The first retail priority would occur within the Suburban Centre itself, with an additional 90,000 sf. This project would likely be anchored by a grocery store, with several restaurants and other inline retail services. Two District Village commercial areas at approximately 125,000 sf each would be located deeper within the Blairmore SDA (refer to Figure 14.2). These projects would be along arterial roads and be more pedestrian-oriented than the Suburban Centre with a lifestyle centre aesthetic (refer to Appendix D for Lifestyle Centre definition). 131
Blairmore Retail
Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 150,000 0 150,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 6.9 0.0 6.9 2.8 0.0 2.8
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 0 0 0 0 0 Blairmore Summary 530,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.00 0.60 0.41 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9
Hotel
Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, current zoning, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format etc. 133
The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.
134
14.3.1
LAND ALLOCATION
Table 14.3 and Figure 14.3 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Confederation SDA, based on future market demand. With the neighbourhood commercial areas already under construction in the Hampton Village area, along with limited future population growth, no retail has been allocated for the Confederation SDA. There are opportunities for redevelopment/revitalization of older strip centres, as well as certain infill projects, however opportunities for new organized retail projects, such as the former Canadian Tire space will be restricted over the next 15 to 20 years. 25,000 sf of office space is recommended in the Arterial zoned area of the Confederation Suburban Centre, just off of Circle Drive. This is not additional new land, but rather infill on existing zoned land. The office would be one to two stories in height and would offer units for smaller companies looking for 1,000 sf to 5,000 sf in size. Light industrial is the largest opportunity for Confederation with an allocation of 500,000 sf.
135
Confederation Retail
Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 25,000 0 25,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 1.1 0.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.5
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 500,000 0 0 500,000 0 525,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.40 0.60 0.40 28.7 0.0 0.0 28.7 0.0 29.8 11.6 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.0 12.1
Hotel
Confederation Summary
Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, current zoning, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format etc. 136
The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.
137
14.4.1
LAND ALLOCATION
Table 14.4 and Figure 14.4 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Nutana SDA, based on future market demand based on the city reaching a population threshold of 325,000 residents. With the transition of the CN industrial lands into a higher and better use, along with the opening of the new bridge for the Circle Drive South Project, there lies an excellent opportunity to create a regional retail node of 250,000 sf at the interchange of Circle Drive and Idylwyld Drive.
Nutana Retail
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 50,000 0 50,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 2.3 0.0 2.3 0.9 0.0 0.9
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 550,000 0 0 550,000 0 Nutana Summary 930,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.40 1.25 0.37 31.6 0.0 0.0 31.6 0.0 58.0 12.8 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.0 23.5
Hotel
Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format etc. 139
The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.
140
14.5.2
14.5.1
LAND ALLOCATION
Table 14.5 and Figure 14.5 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Core SDA, based on future market demand. The focus for retail in the Core will occur as redevelopment/ revitalization projects begin as much of the area, aside from Midtown Plaza, is street front retail. It is typical that once a downtown is built-out, the amount of retail does not always dramatically change, but the type of retail changes in terms of tenants and offerings. There are retail infill opportunities though and 250,000 sf has been allocated for the Core SDA. This will occur primarily east of Idylwyld Drive and South of 23rd St E. Since downtown retail has a higher density than other forms of retail, only 7.7 acres of vacant land would be required. While suburban office space becomes more popular, the focus will continue to be on downtown Saskatoon for continued office growth. 500,000 sf of total office demand is allocated in the Core SDA requiring just under 8 acres, though this could be less if density is increased.
Recognizing the potential for development in the Warehouse District and the transition of the adjacent industrial land uses at the City Yards to mixed-use and other commercial land uses, the potential exists to redefine or redraw the current Core SDA boundary at its interface with the Lawson SDA. Accordingly, Table 14.6 and Figure 14.6 illustrate a new boundary for the Core in which the northern edge would be adjusted to cross from King Street, across the rail tracks and behind the Ramada hotel to link up with 30th Street West at Idylwyld. This new potential boundary alteration would consequently occur at the expense of the Lawson SDA boundary. Therefore, the land use allocation in Table 14.5 of the new Core SDA reflects the potential new land uses that could occur as a result of infill, intensification and densification of the area north of the Warehouse District and north of the rail tracks along Idylwyld Drive, south of 30th St W. The resulting new land allocation of the NEW Core SDA would be comprised of 400,000 sf of Downtown retail, 55,000 sf of Arterial retail as infill redevelopment along Idylwyld, 500,000 sf of Downtown office and 3 hotels totaling 228,000 sf. In terms of total land, an estimated 26 acres of land would be required to fulfill future demand for the City of Saskatoon as the population grows towards 325,000 residents. 141
Core Retail
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 0 500,000 500,000 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.0 7.7 7.7 0.0 3.1 3.1
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 0 0 0 0 180,000 Core Summary 930,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.00 1.25 1.15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 7.5
Hotel
Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. - 180,000 sf of hotel space equals approximately 300 rooms
142
The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.
143
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 0 650,000 650,000 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.0 9.9 9.9 0.0 4.0 4.0
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 0 0 0 0 228,000 East Summary 1,333,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.00 1.25 1.02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 12.1
Hotel
Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. - 228,000 sf of hotel space equals approximately 380 rooms.
144
The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.
145
14.6.1
LAND ALLOCATION
Table 14.7 and Figure 14.7 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Lawson SDA, based on future market demand. Due to land constraints, there is not a large amount of development that will be occurring in the Lawson SDA. The emerging Warehouse District will see the most growth, with 150,000 sf of retail which should primarily be street front retail since the district is a continuation of the downtown core. Retail can be placed within mixed-use developments, where retail presides on the ground floor with office or residential above. Retail within the Warehouse District may benefit from the Special Area designation, similar to Broadway Avenue, so that the city is able to maintain the unique attributes and characteristics of the historic area. However, this Special Area designation, while effective for the Broadway District, is quite ambiguous when considering the Warehouse District. In fact, the location of the Warehouse District to the Core and Downtown suggests that a Downtown retail or MX1 (mixed-use) designation would be more applicable.
As the Warehouse District develops into a historic and trendy area of the city, there lies an opportunity for an 80-room boutique hotel. The hotel could be at grade in a historic building, with several floors of residential lofts above, or retail at grade with the hotel above.
14.5.2
In conjunction with the potential boundary alteration of the Core SDA, the resulting boundary change of the Lawson SDA is summarized in Table 14.8 and Figure 14.8. The resulting impact on future land allocation is shown in Table 14.8. In total, the NEW Lawson SDA requires only 3.3 acres/ 1.3 hectares of land to accommodate the approximate 50,000 sf of commercial and industrial space forecast for when the city reaches 325,000 residents.
146
Lawson Retail
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 0 150,000 150,000 0.50 1.50 1.50 0.0 2.3 2.3 0.0 0.9 0.9
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 0 0 0 0 48,000 Lawson Summary 398,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.00 1.25 0.83 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.5
Hotel
Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format etc. - A hotel of 48,000 sf equals approximately 80 rooms.
147
The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.
148
NEW Lawson (Adjusted Bndry) Demand Allocation (SF) Site Utilization Acres Required Hectares Required Retail
Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total 0 0 50,000 0 0 0 0 50,000 0.40 0.40 0.35 0.75 0.35 0.30 0.75 0.35 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 0 0 0 0.50 1.50 0.00 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 0 0 0 0 0 Lawson Summary 50,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.00 1.25 0.35 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
Hotel
Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. 149
The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.
150
14.7.1
LAND ALLOCATION
Table 14.9 and Figure 14.9 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the North Industrial SDA, based on future market demand. Retail within the North Industrial SDA is envisioned to be Arterial Retail, comprising 300,000 sf in two nodes on 20 acres total. The first arterial along Idylwyld Drive between 51st Street and 60th Street could accommodate space for auto dealerships or recreational vehicle shops. The second could occur along 60th Street as infill amongst light industrial uses to provide services and compatible retail for the North Industrial businesses, similar to that which has occurred along 51st East. The planned AeroGreen Business Park will take a majority of the office space demand in the North industrial SDA. This high-end business park has 50 acres of gross developable area. Over the next 15 to 20 years, approximately 14 acres are needed for the 380,000 sf of office allocated within the Airport Business Area. This magnitude of growth should provide significant benefit for airport compatible land uses.
A 120-room business hotel is set on the edges of the airport lands, along Claypool Drive. Once the future business and industrial park begins to take shape, the hotel will be in an excellent setting to provide rooms for the new employment node as well as the already established Airport Business Area.
In total, the North Industrial SDA requires an estimated 422.7 acres/ 171.2 hectares of land to accommodate the approximate 6,000,000 sf of commercial and industrial space forecast for when the city reaches 325,000 residents. The total land requirement for approximately 423 ac / 171 ha when measured against the current estimated available undeveloped land suggests there is sufficient land in the North industrial SDA to fulfill market-driven demand for population growth in the city of approximately 100,000 more residents (or approximately 20 years). 151
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 480,000 0 480,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 22.0 0.0 22.0 8.9 0.0 8.9
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 2,600,000 2,500,000 0 5,100,000 120,000 6,000,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.31 1.25 0.33 149.2 229.6 0.0 378.8 2.2 422.7 60.4 93.0 0.0 153.4 0.9 171.2
Hotel
North Industrial Summary
Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. - A hotel of 120,000 sf equals approximately 200 rooms.
152
The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments. Specifically for the North Industrial SDA, the land allocation shown in Figure 14.9 is based on the city reaching 325,000 residents and is therefore not premised on the build-out of the North Industrial SDA. Moreover, the space and land shown here represents that which is likely needed over the next 20 years.
153
14.8.1
LAND ALLOCATION
Table 14.10 and Figure 14.10 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the University Heights SDA, based on future market demand. With the University Heights area expected to more than double its current population, there are many areas of the SDA that will experience growth in the commercial sector. 465,000 sf of retail is allocated for the SDA, and is distributed over several locations. 90,000 sf at the College Quarter will cater to the university crowd, with small grocery, cafes, restaurants and bookstores. This will be higher in density to meet the overall vision of the College Quarter. A 75,000 sf addition onto the southwest corner of Preston Crossing should be considered to complete the development and fill the land currently sitting vacant, which is not seen to be compatible with University agricultural uses. Several medium-sized tenants (e.g. 10,000 sf) or restaurants (pending DCD removal or amendment) that are not represented on the east side of the city would likely see success in this location.
154
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 100,000 120,000 220,000 0.50 1.50 0.79 4.6 1.8 6.4 1.9 0.7 2.6
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 110,000 0 0 110,000 120,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.40 1.25 6.3 0.0 0.0 6.3 2.2 2.6 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.9
Hotel
University Heights Summary 915,000 0.51 41.1 16.6 Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format etc. - A hotel of 120,000 sf equals approximately 200 rooms
155
The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments.
156
14.9.1
LAND ALLOCATION
Table 14.11 and Figure 14.11 summarize and illustrate the envisioned allocation of future land uses in the Lakewood SDA, based on future market demand. While the Lakewood Suburban Centre provides the majority of retail shopping needs for the surrounding residents, there are opportunities for two more retail nodes as the Rosewood neighbourhood builds out. The first is a cluster of two 25,000 sf neighbourhood retail nodes that will provide everyday retail conveniences for the residents of Rosewood. 10,000 sf of suburban office is placed within the Lakewood Suburban Centre. These office spaces would be for small tenants looking for 1,000 sf to 2,000 sf, unless one tenant would like to occupy the entire space. The eastern edge of the Lakewood SDA is a potential strong location for a smaller employment node comprising a 300,000 sf light industrial park along the future perimeter highway, straddling the north side of the Yellowhead Highway. Servicing is the most significant obstacle at present, while issues relating to access also exist. As a smaller employment node, regional access would not be as critical, though still could be perceived as a hindrance for attracting potential developers. These issues suggest that the timing of this location would be a longer proposition. This smaller employment node could contain light manufacturing, processing and assembly. Although 300,000 sf is allocated for this area, taking approximately 17.2 acres, there is more vacant land available if expansion is needed when there is more industrial demand in the future. Though not shown, retail is likely given the nature of discretionary land uses in light industrial zoning. Specifically, retail serving the needs of the employee base or compatible with the land use could be part of the light industrial land use (e.g. restaurants, auto services). In total, the Lakewood SDA requires 20.5 acres/ 8.3 hectares of land to accommodate the approximate 360,000 sf of commercial and industrial space forecast for when the city reaches 325,000 residents. 157
14.9 LAKEWOOD
Lakewood is another growing area of the city, with a current population of 35,000 residents, with another 12,079 projected for the SDA. The majority of growth will occur as the Rosewood neighbourhood builds out. There is 672,022 sf of retail space which is primarily located in the Lakewood Suburban Centre and additional space in small neighbourhood nodes. Office space totals 137,929 sf and there is 57,788 sf of industrial. Total vacant land is 791 acres with the majority being arable. 38 acres are classified as undeveloped.
Lakewood Retail
Neighborhood Retail District Arterial Special Area Suburban Centre Regional Downtown Total
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 10,000 0 10,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 300,000 0 0 300,000 0 Lakewood Summary 360,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.40 1.25 0.40 17.2 0.0 0.0 17.2 0.0 20.5 7.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 8.3
Hotel
Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. 158
The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments, or in the case of light industrial in Lakewood, dependent upon servicing and access improvements.
159
14.10.3 RETAIL
In terms of retail, the future allocation identifies enough demand and space to fulfill full future build out of the East SDA, as phased and introduced over time.
Figure 14.12
70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0
When City of Saskatoon reaches 325,000 by 2030 (Based on 1.8% avg annual growth) East SDA could have an
161
The East Suburban Centre is located strategically within the heart of the East SDA and along 8th Street and would be built further down the timeline, once a larger residential component is already living within the East SDA boundaries.
More imminent priority could be given to a 150,000 sf District Village commercial area located at the centre of the East SDA. This District Village could have a smaller grocery component (15,000 20,000 sf) and retail services for the new subdivisions being constructed in the mid stages of the East SDAs evolution. 50,000 sf of neighbourhood retail will intersperse itself throughout the SDA, primarily in 10,000 sf to 15,000 sf development nodes introduced as warranted by residential development patterns.
14.10.4
OFFICE
As part of creating a Major Employment Area in the East SDA, office space comprised of freestanding one, two and three storey office buildings in well landscaped campus format(s), similar to Innovation Place is recommended to ensure that the East SDA provides a quality environment compatible with the goal of becoming a major employment centre and thus being competitive in attracting high quality end users. Additionally, a higher quality office campus will not negatively impact surrounding residential neighbourhoods and could in fact become a valuable asset and amenity for residential sales.
162
In total, the 375,000 sf office campus is recommended to be placed with visibility and linear exposure along Highway 5, south and east of the Willowgrove neighbourhood. This office campus should feature buildings two to three stories in height, and would feature higher quality Class A space. This office campus can be the home to several corporate headquarters or regional headquarters for companies that choose not to locate in downtown, but for whom the highway arterial frontage and high quality suburban environment would be particularly appealing.
Over and above the market demand allocation, the role of Economic Development could play a pivotal role in attracting users not necessarily quantified in this analysis and thus further rationalizing the potential Urban Holding Area, capable of accommodating economic development-driven demand (which is separate from market-driven demand.
14.10.5
14.10.6
HOTEL
For the further establishment of the Major Employment Centre/Node, the total land allocated for Business Park (office & Flex light industrial) to fulfill market-driven demand by the time the city reaches a population of 325,000 is estimated at 47.8 acres / 19.3hectares. Specifically, there is an opportunity for 500,000 sf of light industrial space occupying 28.7 acres / 11.6 hectares, with accessibility from Highway 5, located south of the office campus and adjacent to the regional retail centre. Light industrial uses are not recommended to allow outdoor storage, but rather focus on cleaner industrial uses such as light assembly, green tech initiatives and renewable energy. (Refer to Appendix D for an industry definition of flex light industrial.)
Recognizing that visitor dynamics and proximity of demand generators are more critical for hotel demand than residential driven population growth, the East SDA does have the potential, once the Employment Area and Regional Commercial have been established, to accommodate one hotel (of 120 rooms), similar to the Best Western in Blairmore and Four Points Sheraton in Nutana. Moreover, the relative proximity to the University could provide additional benefit, although the University is also proposing as part of its College Quarter a 200-room hotel, which is a contributing reason as to why this study is recommending only one hotel in the East SDA at the Regional Commercial node.
163
East Retail
Office
Suburban Business Park Downtown Total 415,000 0 415,000 0.50 1.50 0.50 19.1 0.0 19.1 7.7 0.0 7.7
Industrial
Light Industrial Heavy Industrial Environmental Industrial Park Total 500,000 0 0 500,000 72,000 East Summary 2,187,000 0.40 0.25 0.25 0.40 0.60 0.37 28.7 0.0 0.0 28.7 2.8 135.2 11.6 0.0 0.0 11.6 1.1 54.8
Hotel
Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, current zoning, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development format, etc. - A hotel of 72,000 sf equals approximately 120 rooms.
164
Notes: - Demand figures are based on a population growth rate of 1.8%, and factor in a 325,000 person threshold for the City of Saskatoon. - Allocation of land is based on multiple factors, including but not limited to, current land uses, current zoning, availability of land/sites, location of land/sites, each respective SDAs vision, compatibility of land uses , development density, optimal development forma,t etc. - A hotel of 72,000 sf equals approximately 120 rooms.
165
Figure 14.14 East SDA Demand Allocation Breakdown by Percentage of Floor space and Land Use Category
14.10.7
The East SDA should be cautious and avoid overbuilding in the short term. However, as the East SDA grows towards build-out and the city grows beyond 325,000, it is expected that demand will increase. As a result, it is recommended that the city allocate a further 100 150 acres (40 60 hectares) as an Urban Holding Area capable of solidifying and further entrenching the area as a major employment node.
14.10.8
In total, as revealed in Table 14.1 and Figure 14.13, the East SDA is forecast to require 135.2 acres / 54.8 hectares of commercial and industrial Land (not including potential Urban Holding Area) at an average total FAR of 0.37. When including the future potential Urban Holding Area, this land requirement ranges from approximately 180 to 230 acres / 72.8 to 93 hectares. Figures 14.14 and 14.15 illustrate the share of floor space and land allocation within the SDA. Accordingly, retail is forecast to comprise the largest share of space and land at 55% and 63% respectively. Combined office and light industrial, forming the foundation of the Major Employment Area in the East SDA would account for 42% of the total commercial/industrial floor space allocation in the East SDA and 35% of the total commercial/industrial land allocation. Overall, as summarized in Figure 14.16 & 14.17, the East SDA is forecast, based on market-driven demand at a city population threshold of 325,000 to comprise 17% of the citys total floor commercial and industrial floor space and land allocation.
Figure 14.15 East SDA Demand Allocation Breakdown by Percentage of Land and Land Use Category
166
7%
7% 4% 4%
Blairmore
10% 18%
Confederation NEW Core East Lakewood NEW Lawson North Industrial Nutana University Heights
46%
1%3%
18%
Figure 14.17 East SDA Share of Total Citywide Land Allocation (by SDAs)
East
7%
5% 4% 4% 4%
18% 3% 0%
Blairmore Confederation NEW Core East Lakewood NEW Lawson North Industrial Nutana University Heights
55%
167
Neighbourhood 3 Retail
Neighbourhood 1 Retail
Neighbourhood 2 Retail
The floor space and land allocation figures presented are not meant to imply that the land/space could not be introduced until the citys population reaches 325,000. The timing, phasing and introduction of each respective development opportunity would occur pending feasibility studies and/or necessary impact assessments. 168
169
15.2.1 LIVE/WORK
The City of Saskatoon has a unique opportunity over the next 20 years in its Warehouse District to pursue mixed-use urban regeneration, using its MX1 zoning, in which Live/Work units are promoted. Live/Work, in the context of mixed-use, provides affordable opportunities for accommodation for area workers. In particular, this format proivdes opportunities that could attract businesses, entrepreneurs and residents to the Warehouse District, thus fulfilling a new development pattern for the Core SDA that has the potential to increase the downtown resident population base, which will in turn create, stimulate and justify retail growth and further entrench and re-enforce the Downtown as a year round energized area. A Live/Work unit serves the dual purpose of acting as a dwelling and a workspace. Each component is typically allocated as a proportion of the units total floor area. It is typically at the discretion of the city or governing authority to determine or identify what the percentage allocation should be as well as identifying any other criteria, similar to the way in which a Home-Based Business is assessed. The advantages of providing for Live/Work units in the Warehouse District, would include the following: Reduction in vehicular travel Urban Regeneration Business Incubation and Start-Up Creation of Business Clusters Flexibility Affordability
15.2
Unlike other major metropolitan regions in Canada which are competitive with surrounding municipalities, Saskatoon benefits from its provincial centrality and its regional serving capacity. However, this does not negate the need for the city to keep current with planning and development trends that are based on marketdriven demands. Appendix B profiles a series of Case Studies comprised of Mixed-Use, Urban Redevelopment, Brownfield, Greenfield, District Village Town Centre, Hybrid Large Format/Main Street and light industrial Flex Space projects. These projects should be considered as models or templates for future development in Saskatoons suburban or downtown environments.
The original envisioned requirement for 400 to 450 acres in the East SDA is based on the historic land utilization of industrial land uses. As new development trends for light industrial, office and retail emerge, the land utilization should become slightly less intensive and more compatible for the East SDAs evolution.
The resulting benefits of accommodating new progressive industrial and office Space integration include, but are not limited to the following: Better compatibility with surrounding residential land uses; Enhanced economic opportunities and employment density; Allows for opportunities for heavier industrial and land intensive uses, with corresponding lower employment densities to be located in the North industrial or established industrial areas where adjacency compatibility issues are less of a concern; Enhanced ability to respond to current and changing market demand; Improved positioning to attract new investment; Ensure that the city's light industrial growth and focus is strengthened.
15.3
Regardless of whether demand is generated by retail, office, hotel or industrial, employment will tend to locate where there is available land as well as a nearby population base to support the employment activity. Accordingly, the following are some key fundamentals that the City of Saskatoon could promote: Retail and office land uses have a proven inclination to follow the population base. As such, Blairmore, Stonebridge and the future East SDA have advantages in attracting commercial, as evidenced by the ongoing development of regional retail nodes. Office uses also have a tendency to prefer downtown locations, in which case the intensification and densification of Downtown Saskatoon represents a core opportunity to attract new and expanding major anchor office tenants. The amount of land required is relatively low considering the land utilization recommended to accommodate the building footprints. Heavy industrial land uses do not have a direct correlation to population base because of the historic incompatibility of the land uses. In this regard, the North industrial which still has a significant amount of undeveloped land should continue to attract the heavier industrial land uses. Light industrial land uses are increasingly bridging the gap between retail and office commercial and heavy industrial when it comes to its correlation with population base. Accordingly, the East SDA represents a significant opportunity in the future to become a strong multi-use employment centre, without requiring heavy industrial or land intensive uses. 172
Retail developments that have been in filled on industrial lands are often in the form of large format retail. Other types of retail found on industrial lands include industrial type uses. These would not necessarily be allowed in other commercial or neighbourhood areas, such as automotive repair and servicing, dealerships or construction supply stores.
The development of large format retail stores on industrially zoned land is becoming less common. More municipalities are realizing the importance of their industrial land base and are becoming reluctant to lose industrial land to larger retail uses. As Saskatoon grows and its density increases it will be important for the city to realize that opportunities may present themselves in the Downtown or Core SDA to attract medium to larger format retailers. This trend will likely occur as the population base Downtown increases. While the focus of the long term growth of the City of Saskatoon is in the suburban locations in Blairmore, University Heights and the East SDA, over time as the city's population grows, Downtown or urban living will gain further traction, around which larger retailers that formerly looked at industrial or suburban locations may express an interest in locating downtown.
The DCDs were effective in the time since they were introduced in ensuring Saskatoon did not overbuild during a period of significant speculative development. In addition, DCDs provided competing retailers and projects with a solid foundation for success. However, the continued and stronger than envisioned growth in most areas of Saskatoon, even with developments such as Stonegate and Preston Crossing, indicates an opportunity to re-evaluate the DCDs and their current role preventing further growth opportunities.
The following pages profile a series of regional retail developments that combine traditional large format retail within the framework of smaller in-line retail shops. These types of developments are often referred to as hybrid developments (refer to Appendix D for definition provided by ICSC Canada). For each respective community in which they are located, the governing zoning is provided to illustrate the policy mechanism that exists to allow for the development to occur. While there is no consistency between jurisdictions as to how the zoning is referred, there is a general consistency in the way that each development is allowed to occur with less restrictions than the City of Saskatoon and its retail DCDs. For the purposes of this analysis, the following hybrid project examples are provided:
15.4
In terms of retail commercial, Saskatoons full potential has not been realized and part of this has been a result of the restrictive DCD Zoning placed on the Preston Crossing, Stonegate and Blairmore projects, whereby the full potential for tenants has not been realized due to limitations on store mix and sizes.
Northfield Stapleton, Denver, Colorado Grandview Corners, Surrey, British Columbia The District, South Jordan, Utah Prairie Center, Brighton, Colorado Grasslands, Regina, Saskatchewan
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Northfield Stapleton, Colorado C-MU-20 Commercial Mixed-Use District (Source: City of Denver, Colorado):
The C-MU-20 district provides for a mix of commercial, residential, and industrial uses along or near arterials or other high traffic streets. Site and building design will be of a quality that enhances the character of the streets. A wide range of commercial and residential uses are allowed, along with limited industrial uses. Although residential uses are permitted in the C-MU districts, it is expected that residential uses shall be responsible for buffering themselves from non-residential uses that may locate on adjacent property. Maximum gross floor area is equal to one (1) times the area of the zone lot.
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Grandview Corners, South Surrey CD Comprehensive Development Zone (Source: City of Surrey, British Columbia):
This Zone is intended to accommodate and regulate the development of a mixture of uses as an integrated unit based on a comprehensive plan in conformity to the use and density stated in the Official Community Plan. An amending by-law may specify permitted uses and regulations other than those set out in the bylaw.
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The District, South Jordan, Utah BH-MU BANGHERTER HIGHWAY MIXED-USE ZONE (Source: City of South Jordan, Utah):
The Bangerter Highway Mixed Use Zone may be established along the east side of Bangerter Highway to provide areas for higher density, mixed use development. Such development will be compatible with a major arterial highway corridor and should discourage low density single-family residential development near the highway.
It is intended that a variety of retail, office, entertainment and residential uses be combined to create a self-contained environment for workers, shoppers, residents and visitors in a pedestrian oriented unified manner while accommodating automobile traffic to regional services dependent upon a major transportation facility. The BH-MU zone will encourage orderly, aesthetically pleasing development and a balance of uses while discouraging strip commercial with its attendant congestion, pollution and visual blight. Buildings shall be designed to have architectural and access orientation to the street. 178
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Prairie Center, Colorado PUD-C/I PLANNED UNIT DEVELOPMENT (Source: City of Brighton, Colorado):
The Planned Unit Development (PUD) District is intended to reflect maximum design freedom to make the best use of topography and land features and to permit the developer an opportunity to more fully utilize the physical characteristics of the site through the reduction of lot sizes and the variation of setback and bulk restrictions; to provide for diversification and flexibility in housing types, housing prices, and overall design; to encourage innovative development of smaller parcels of land that have been passed over; to encourage mixed-use developments, including uses such as residential, office, and commercial; and to encourage higher quality development than possible under traditional standard zoning regulations. Through the Planned Unit Development process, it is the intent that property will be developed with a unified design providing continuity between and among the various elements. However, the PUD process is not intended as a device to circumvent general development regulations, standards, and good planning practice. Land uses listed as permitted on a PUD zoning document shall be subject to further review, adjustment or modification, including elimination of particular uses, as part of the city's review and approval of a PUD Final Development Plan for the property, the site specific information provided as part of the PUD Final Development Plan, including but not limited to architectural and aesthetic considerations, traffic, drainage, utility demands, heights, bulk, setbacks, common space and landscaping. Once approved, the PUD functions as an overlay district over the existing, underlying zoning district. As an overlay district, the PUD zoning district will typically impose additional requirements above that required by the underlying zone. 180
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16.2
ZONING HIERARCHY
As the city continues to grow and expand it is possible for Saskatoon to out-grow existing zoning regulations. In response, the demand for a variety of land uses could be expected to increase throughout the city. Accordingly, the following provides some areas in which the city could be proactive in adjusting Policy to accommodate future city growth and the resulting changes in demand. The principle of establishing a zoning hierarchy for commercial and industrial land uses in the City of Saskatoon is still relevant and should thus be maintained. However, within the structure of the overall hierarchy there are some specific Policy amendments that could be considered to allow the hierarchical relationships to be stronger. Policy Consideration: Remove the Direct Control District (DCD) designation from DCD3 (Preston Crossing), DCD5 (Stonegate) and DCD6 (Blairmore), whereby the DCD governs a Regional retail development. The DCD designation for other areas such as the Riverfront Downtown (DCD1) or the Willows (DCD4) are considered separate from this recommendation (refer to Figure 16.1).
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DCD3 - Big Box Store Retail Focus DCD5 - Big Box Store Retail Focus DCD6 - Big Box Store Retail Focus
C4A - Special Suburban Centre & Arterial Commercial District C5 Regional Commercial Centre C6 - Inner-City Commercial Corridor District C7 - Downtown Commercial District
Policy Consideration: Require Neighbourhood Mixed-Use B1B commercial zoning (or C1B under proposed new zoning hierarchy) for future new neighbourhoods to promote neighbourhood scale developments with live/work/own that are also more appealing to developers, since neighbourhood scale developments are not a preferred format for the majority of developers.
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The City of Saskatoons SDAs serve a very important role in the allocation/ distribution of population, employment, residential, commercial and industrial development. While they are established and delineated accordingly, there are areas where over time the citys growth creates potential inconsistency as it relates to boundaries. Accordingly, the following provides some policy direction for potential SDA boundary alterations Policy Consideration: Re-delineate the boundary of the Core SDA and Lawson SDA. The new delineated Core SDA (and resulting re-delineated Lawson SDA) would now extend the northern boundary and would be adjusted to cross from King Street, across the rail tracks and behind the Ramada hotel to link up with 30th Street West at Idylwyld.
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City of Saskatoon
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Distinguishing Features:
Mixed-Use, transit oriented and pedestrian friendly redevelopment project. Part of the larger 125 Acre Park Commons Initiative to create a community focal point
routes along Excelsior Boulevard, as well as two routes that connect residential, community functions and employment throughout Park Commons.
City improved connections between the project site and the surrounding neighbourhood
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The project remained flexible, with the market determining the residential unit size and mix, as well as the commercial tenant selection.
Mixed-Use and redevelopment town centre projects take time, and being adaptable to fluctuations in the market allow for a viable and successful redevelopment.
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Anchored by a 1 acre public plaza with outdoor skating rink for winter. Plaza used for live performances throughout the year. Grid design for pedestrian activity, with street front parking and multiple parking garages for
colder seasons.
Home to 1,500 residents at full build-out. Currently has over 70 retail shops and 15 restaurants. Farmers market during spring, summer and fall. Variety of homes at different price points. Strong architectural guidelines for retailers to follow.
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1,200 ft
2,300 ft 199
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APPENDIX B CITY OF SASKATOON & SASKATOON HEALTH REGION POPULATION PROJECTIONS (2006 2026) CROSBY HANNA & ASSOCIATES JUNE 2010
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CITY OF SASKATOON & SASKATOON HEALTH REGION POPULATION PROJECTIONS (2006 2026)
LOW GROWTH SCENARIO 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 209,215 210,047 210,883 211,722 212,564 213,410 214,735 216,069 217,411 218,761 220,120 221,126 222,137 223,153 224,173 225,198 226,490 227,789 229,095 230,409 231,731 Average Annual Growth MODERATE GROWTH 209,215 211,317 213,441 215,586 217,752 219,940 222,283 224,651 227,044 229,463 231,907 234,307 236,732 239,182 241,658 244,159 246,709 249,286 251,889 254,520 257,178 Average Annual Growth HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 209,215 213,654 218,187 222,817 227,544 232,372 236,621 240,948 245,354 249,841 254,410 259,857 265,421 271,104 276,908 282,837 288,139 293,541 299,044 304,651 310,362 Average Annual Growth
0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.62% 0.62% 0.62% 0.62% 0.62% 0.46% 0.46% 0.46% 0.46% 0.46% 0.57% 0.57% 0.57% 0.57% 0.57%
1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.07% 1.07% 1.07% 1.07% 1.07% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.03% 1.04% 1.04% 1.04% 1.04% 1.04%
2.12% 2.12% 2.12% 2.12% 2.12% 1.83% 1.83% 1.83% 1.83% 1.83% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14% 2.14% 1.87% 1.87% 1.87% 1.87% 1.87%
2006 - 2026 0.51% 1.04% 1.99% 2011 - 2026 0.55% 1.05% 1.95% Source: The City of Saskatoon & The Saskatoon Health Region Population Projections 2006 - 2026, Crosby Hanna & Associates, June 2010
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2013 236,787 240,560 241,023 185,710 329,065 346,679 185,314 328,364 345,940 270,840 213,955 309,423 321,153
2014 239,269 244,890 245,718 280,027 493,608 525,100 279,430 492,557 523,981 406,260 321,906 464,141 485,114
2015 241,777 249,298 250,505 375,333 661,112 706,996 374,533 659,704 705,490 541,680 430,515 620,832 651,389
234,331 236,306 236,418 92,371 167,432 171,667 92,174 167,075 171,302 135,420 106,655 156,642 159,463
831,632 1,005,221 1,181,935 1,361,829 1,544,962 1,731,391 892,436 1,081,489 1,274,224 1,470,714 1,671,032 1,875,252 470,633 567,740 665,865 765,019 865,212 966,455
829,861 1,003,080 1,179,417 1,358,928 1,541,671 1,727,702 890,535 1,079,185 1,271,510 1,467,581 1,667,472 1,871,257 677,100 539,790 779,531 820,024 812,520 649,738 947,940 1,083,360 1,218,780 1,354,200 760,364 871,677 983,684 1,096,391
940,274 1,103,097 1,268,039 1,435,137 1,604,431 991,065 1,164,558 1,340,552 1,519,095 1,700,236
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1,071,041 1,174,638 1,279,322 1,385,102 1,491,992 1,600,002 1,709,144 1,819,430 1,930,872 2,043,483 1,921,175 2,114,376 2,311,054 2,511,273 2,715,095 2,922,587 3,133,813 3,348,841 3,567,740 3,790,579 2,083,450 2,295,705 2,512,094 2,732,698 2,957,600 3,186,883 3,420,633 3,658,937 3,901,882 4,149,561 1,068,759 1,172,136 1,276,597 1,382,152 1,488,814 1,596,594 1,705,503 1,815,555 1,926,759 2,039,130 1,917,083 2,109,872 2,306,131 2,505,924 2,709,312 2,916,361 3,127,137 3,341,708 3,560,140 3,782,504 2,079,012 2,290,815 2,506,743 2,726,877 2,951,300 3,180,095 3,413,347 3,651,143 3,893,571 4,140,722 1,489,620 1,625,040 1,760,460 1,895,880 2,031,300 2,166,720 2,302,140 2,437,560 2,572,980 2,708,400 1,209,807 1,323,938 1,438,793 1,554,378 1,670,702 1,787,772 1,905,596 2,024,182 2,143,537 2,263,671 1,775,959 1,949,763 2,125,882 2,304,359 2,485,236 2,668,556 2,854,363 3,042,703 3,233,620 3,427,161 1,884,028 2,070,520 2,259,765 2,451,818 2,646,733 2,844,566 3,045,373 3,249,213 3,456,144 3,666,228
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970,249 1,071,933 1,175,448 1,280,826 1,398,829 1,518,955 1,641,244 1,765,734 1,892,465 2,021,477 1,052,818 1,164,531 1,278,420 1,394,528 1,524,734 1,657,477 1,792,806 1,930,771 2,071,424 2,214,817 1,115,271 1,244,576 1,376,896 1,512,308 1,650,892 1,792,730 1,937,904 2,086,501 2,238,609 2,394,319 1,025,000 1,130,000 1,235,000 1,340,000 1,445,000 1,550,000 1,655,000 1,760,000 1,865,000 1,970,000 893,586 989,863 1,087,335 1,186,030 1,287,853 1,390,976 1,495,430 1,601,246 1,708,455 1,817,090
1,036,840 1,148,836 1,262,448 1,377,711 1,498,240 1,620,562 1,744,716 1,870,745 1,998,691 2,128,599 1,064,363 1,179,702 1,296,772 1,415,612 1,540,209 1,666,736 1,795,237 1,925,757 2,058,344 2,193,045
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Projected Saskatoon Room Demand Leisure Commercial Total Projected Saskatoon Room Supply 40% 60% 100%
1,257,425
1,257,425
1,326,384
1,322,760
1,322,760
1,322,760
1,326,384
1,322,760
1,322,760
1,322,760
1,326,384
1,326,384
37
76
114
154
194
235
277
319
362
406
450
68.0%
69.1%
66.5%
67.8%
68.9%
70.0%
70.9%
72.3%
73.4%
74.6%
75.6%
76.9%
Source: MXD Development Strategists 2011, Smith Travel Research, Colliers PKF Note: 2012, 2016 & 2020 represent Leap Years and therefore have 366 days against which supply is calculated Forecasted Occupancy as estimated by MXD Development Strategists reflecting historic average and industry standard given the Saskatoon & Saskatchewan Market profile.
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Projected Saskatoon Room Demand Leisure Commercial Total Projected Saskatoon Room Supply
1,326,384
1,326,384
1,326,384
1,326,384
1,326,384
1,326,384
1,326,384
1,326,384
1,326,384
1,326,384
496
542
589
637
686
735
786
837
889
943
78.1%
79.4%
80.7%
82.0%
83.3%
84.7%
86.1%
87.5%
88.9%
90.4%
Source: MXD Development Strategists 2011, Smith Travel Research, Colliers PKF Note: 2012, 2016 & 2020 represent Leap Years and therefore have 366 days against which supply is calculated Forecasted Occupancy as estimated by MXD Development Strategists reflecting historic average and industry standard given the Saskatoon & Saskatchewan Market profile.
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851,415 1,140,341 1,434,467 1,733,887 2,038,697 2,348,994 2,664,876 2,986,443 905,735 1,219,485 1,539,347 1,865,440 2,197,886 2,536,807 2,882,332 3,234,587 623,283 800,216 1,233,181 1,677,264 2,132,769 2,600,012 3,079,315 3,571,011
676,000 1,014,000 1,352,000 1,690,000 2,028,000 2,366,000 2,704,000 3,042,000 3,380,000 428,646 511,070 521,197 706,765 933,207 1,245,567 1,562,213 1,883,253 2,208,798 2,538,963 2,873,863
829,566 1,097,519 1,452,549 1,813,050 2,179,155 2,551,002 2,928,730 3,312,485 847,672 1,123,900 1,487,509 1,856,901 2,232,218 2,613,606 3,001,216 3,395,199
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1,847,419 2,026,112 2,206,678 2,389,137 2,573,509 2,759,813 2,948,071 3,138,301 3,330,526 3,524,765 3,313,799 3,647,048 3,986,295 4,331,648 4,683,218 5,041,115 5,405,456 5,776,354 6,153,928 6,538,299 3,593,705 3,959,818 4,333,064 4,713,580 5,101,510 5,496,996 5,900,187 6,311,232 6,730,285 7,157,501 4,075,442 4,592,961 5,123,927 5,668,714 6,227,703 6,801,289 7,389,875 7,993,878 8,613,726 9,249,859 3,718,000 4,056,000 4,394,000 4,732,000 5,070,000 5,408,000 5,746,000 6,084,000 6,422,000 6,760,000 3,213,620 3,558,357 3,908,202 4,263,284 4,623,737 4,989,701 5,361,315 5,738,726 6,122,084 6,511,541 3,702,414 4,098,669 4,501,407 4,910,787 5,326,974 5,750,135 6,180,444 6,618,077 7,063,218 7,516,053 3,795,716 4,202,926 4,616,997 5,038,098 5,466,404 5,902,095 6,345,354 6,796,370 7,255,337 7,722,453
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Class C Office Space: Buildings competing for tenants requiring functional space at rents below the average for the area. Common Area: For lease purposes, the areas of a building (and its site) that are available for the nonexclusive use of all its tenants, such as lobbies, corridors, and parking lots. (Real Estate Information Standards). Development Cost Charges (DCC): Development cost charges (DCC's) are monies that municipalities and regional districts collect from land developers to offset that portion of the costs related to these services that are incurred as a direct result of this new development. The demand created does not always relate to works that are located adjacent to the property being developed. For example, new development may require a local government to increase the size of its water storage reservoir. Developers pay DCCs instead of the existing taxpayers who are not creating the demand and are not benefiting from the new infrastructure. Economic Base: Those economic activities or sectors in a local or regional economy that account for a certain share of the area's income that is generated from exports of goods and services. Flex Space: Space that is flexible in terms of what it can be used for (for example, space that could be utilized for industrial or office activities). A building providing its occupants the flexibility of utilizing the space. Usually provides a configuration allowing a flexible amount of office or showroom space in combination with manufacturing, laboratory, warehouse distribution, etc. Typically also provides the flexibility to relocate overhead doors. Generally constructed with little or no common areas, load-bearing floors, loading dock facilities and high ceilings.
Absorption: The amount of inventory or units of a specific commercial property type that become occupied during a specified time period (usually a year) in a given market, typically reported as the absorption rate.
Airport City (Jack Kasarda www.aerotropolis.com): Airport property beyond the terminal is being developed with hotel and entertainment facilities, conference and exhibition complexes, shopping centers, office buildings, and logistics and free trade zones. Airports are taking on features of metropolitan central business districts, increasingly operating as points of multimodal surface transportation convergence with surrounding office, hotel and commercial facilities. Under the new airport city model, many airports are becoming significant employment, shopping, business meeting and entertainment destinations.
Average Daily Rate (ADR): The average of rates charged for guest rooms during one day of business. Method of computation: ADR = Total guest room revenue divided by number of rooms sold. Capitalization Rate: A percentage that relates the value of an income-producing property to its future income, expressed as net operating income divided by purchase price. Also referred to as cap rate. Class A Office Space: Most prestigious buildings competing for premier office users with rents above average for the area. Buildings have high quality standard finishes, state of the art systems, exceptional accessibility and a definite market presence. Class B Office Space: Buildings competing for a wide range of users with rents in the average range for the area. Building finishes are fair to good for the area and systems are adequate, but the building does not compete with Class A at the same price.
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The following retail definitions are reproduced from and sourced to the Canadian Retail Real Estate Standard as published by the International Council of Shopping Centres, December 2010. These definitions may be useful to the city in understanding the nature of retail development applications and the applicable zoning thereof.
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