CHNG 1 XC SUT CN BN

CU TRC CHNG 1. Cc khi nim 2. nh ngha xc sut v cc phng php tnh xc sut cn c theo nh ngha 3. Mt s quy tc tnh xc sut

1. CC KHI NIM
1.1 Php th v bin c Php th VD: gieo mt ng xu xem sp hay nga, bt bng n xem c sng khng, b vn vo kinh doanh Bin c. VD: ra mt sp, n sng, kinh doanh tht bi Bin c s cp

1.2 Phn loi bin c Bin c chc chn: k hiu bng ch .

Bin c khng th c : k hiu l .

Bin c ngu nhin : k hiu bng cc ch ci vit hoa

1.3 Xc sut Xc sut ca mt bin c l con s c trng cho kh nng xy ra bin c khi thc hin php th
VD: xc sut ca bin c xut hin mt s khi tung ng xu l 0,5

Xc sut c k hiu bng ch P

1.4 Khng gian mu

L tp hp ca tt c cc kt cc s ng c th xy ra trong mt php th

VD: khng gian mu ca php th tung con sc sc c th c k hiu mt cch vn tt l S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Mt s cu hi n tp phn 1: 1. Phng vn ngu nhin mt ngi v vic bt buc i m bo him trong ni thnh t 15/12/2007 l lm 1 php th, kt cc h ni tn ng l bin c, nu kt cc h ni phn i cng l mt bin c. Hy t tn hai bin c ny? 2. Php th l tung mt con xc xc cn i ng cht, gi A l bin c xut hin mt m s chm trn b hn hoc bng 6 B l bin c xut hin mt m s chm trn ln hn 7 C l bin c xut hin mt m s chm l s chn. Cho bit bin c no l bin c ngu nhin; ; ? 3. Php th l mt ca sinh n, T l bin c sinh b trai, theo bn P(T) bng bao nhiu? 4. Php th l rt 1 t trong block lch, L l bin c c 1 ngy l ln (theo lut L), L c l bin c s cp khng?

2. NH NGHA XC SUT V CC PHNG PHP TNH XC SUT CN C THEO NH NGHA

2.1 nh ngha xc sut theo quan im c in 2.1.1 nh ngha 2.2.2 Cc phng php tnh xc sut cn c theo nh ngha c in Phng php suy lun trc tip Phng php dng gii tch t hp
Trang sau

2.2 nh ngha xc sut theo quan im thng k 2.3 Cc tnh cht n gin ca xc sut 2.4 nh ngha xc sut theo hnh hc

2.5 nh ngha xc sut theo tin

3. MT S QUY TC TNH XC SUT

3.1 Quan h gia cc bin c Bin c tng Bin c tch Bin c i lp Bin c c lp Bin c ng kh nng Nhm y cc bin c

3.2 Cng thc tnh xc sut

Cng thc cng xc sut n gin Cng thc cng xc sut tng qut Cng thc nhn xc sut n gin Xc sut iu kin Cng thc nhn xc sut tng qut Cng thc xc sut y Cng thc Bayes Cng thc Becnuli (khng xt n ln)