KhiHuS,HoaKSLmChinRasaoviTrungQuc?

TS. LS. Luu Nguyen Dat August 13, 2011

I. Dn DngTh Lc
1. Hoa K v Trung Quc t u th k 21 tr thnh hai siu cng quc b ch th gii v kh nng tng hp kinh t, qun s, trong th va nng ta, va canh trng i tc. Gn y v trong vi thp nin ti, Trung Quc, v mun to thm b th ct li, s to dng mt cuc chin bt quy c, thao tng trn mt bin ng Nam , lc p o, khi hon binh; lc th thin dng nanh vut, dn th lc cng trn hi o Hong Sa, Trng Sa v ton lnh hi trong Vng; khi mp m, gian xo dng th lc mn trn bn hi ngh quc t, trn th trng dm ton cu, cung cp hng ho r tin, sn phm man tr, nguy hi. Ln ny Trung Quc khng x dng chin thut bin ngi, ly s ng trn nh c im, m thc s cp bin, ph ranh, dng v lc v k thut tn tin n cp t phng Ty gy no ng v v vt ti nguyn ca thin h. Ht cn l tng thc h Mc-Mao, m ch cn mu m th thin th ph, n cp o, n hip bin ca l mafia tn hi tc ngng cung. V mt ln na Hoa K s phi ng u vi mt cuc chin tranh na lnh, na nng, m trng tm khng phi l Chu u m li l Chu v nht l trn mt bin ng Nam , gip Thi Bnh Dng. i tc chin lc ca Hoa K khng cn l th lc Nga X ca th k 20 m chnh l tham vng b ch Hn ho th k 21 ca Trung Quc, sn sng tung chng tn la ht nhn, t t vng ven bin v hu c, hoc di ng trn tim thy nh, hoc khai ho song song vi nhng cuc oanh tc ca cc phi on ct cnh t hng khng mu hm m Trung Quc ang do hon thnh t ci v lc xoong mua li ca Ukraina.[A & 4] i thm vo chi tit, chng ta c th kim k lc lng qun s ca Trung Quc nh sau:

[a] Theo con s Bc Kinh cng b chnh thc, Trung Quc ch c ngn sch quc phng 93,5 t USD nm 2011, so vi M l 553 t cho nm 2012. Tuy th, gii quan st Phng Ty tin rng con s chi ph quc phng thc ca Trung Quc c th cao hn. D sao s chnh lch vn l bn 1, bn 6 v nh vy, Trung Quc vn cha sc ng u tay i vi Hoa K, nht l giao chin quy c bng khng qun v hi qun. [b] Trung Quc chun b chn h thng cp quang vin thng [mch quang tuyn thng tin] su di mt t trnh pho kch ho lc i phng; di chuyn h thng phng th su vo t lin pha Ty Hoa trnh mi tn la ht nhn ca Hoa K; ng thi sn sng nhm gy thit hi bng chnh mi tn la ca h khi i ph chng cc hng khng mu hm Hoa K tin gn chin tuyn. [c] H thng tim thy nh, a s chy bng du cn diesel, vi ba chic chy bng nguyn t lc, c s lng do nt cc quc gia cnh bin, vi mc ch ngn cn h cho php chin thuyn Hoa K cp bn. Ngoi ra cc tim thy nh a s li thi [thng d chin c Nga X] c th th mng ci thnh nhng bom-tim-thy-nh pht n khi x xt ng vo chin thuyn i phng. [d] Cng nn thn trng v kh nng n c tin chin in t [cyberwarfare] ca Trung Quc khi qun i c tn trang trong lnh vc tin hc v hun luyn v ngnh tin tc. Mc ch chnh ca Trung Quc l quy nhiu, e nt, khng b tinh thn i phng v nht l nhng quc gia trong khu vc. Vy, khi tham chin ti vng bin ng Nam , Trung Quc c li th hu c chin lc, ng thi tng cng k thut tc chin v ho lc di do. Trung Quc c th tr thnh mt con cp bin hung d, d i lc da cp Hn thuc li mang nhn hiu Cp giy made in China.[1]

2. Do , Hoa K s phi cp nht mt s chin lc v chin thut hu kp thi km hm, phanh phui hay ph hy sc cng ph ch tn tin, a dng, lc bt quy c, man tr ca Trung Quc. Trc ht, trong th chin lc ny, Hoa K s khng t gnh nng vo lc qun cc binh chng hot ng trn b, nh b binh, thit gip. Nu thy qun lc chin l lc lng trng i ti Iraq, Afghanistan, th ti mt trn Chu Thi Bnh Dng, Hi qun v cc n v trc thuc l lc lng lnh o cuc chin a dng, trn v di mt bin, trong khng gian v mi hnh thc vin chinh tm n lc a Trung Quc. u no chin lc thuc B T Lnh Hoa K Ti Thi Bnh Dng US Pacific Command [PACOM],[2] t i bn doanh ti H Uy Di [Hawaii], vi sinh hot mi lc gia tng khi trng tm chin lc Hoa K chuyn hng v khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng thay v sa ly ti Trung ng. PACOM c nhim v bo v Hoa K v nhng a ht Hoa K [American territories] trong Vng, k c cc quc gia lin minh, vi trng trch [a] bo an khu vc, [b] ngn chn mi giao chin xm lc, v [c] khi hu s, phi sn sng lm chin ton b [d] vn hi an ninh v ho bnh thnh vng cho vng Chu Thi Bnh Dng.

PACOM xut pht t T chc Qun S Hoa K ti Thi Bnh Dng trong cuc Chin Tranh Phi Lut Tn [the Philippines War, 1899-1902]. T khi t c s ti Ha Uy Di, PACOM khng ngng tng trng lc lng chin u, c lc cho CENTCOM [T Lnh Ch Huy Mt Trn Trung ng] mn cc n v tc chin, nh binh chng Thy Qun Lc. II. Chun B Tc Chin 1. Nhng n v tc chin ni thuc hay lin kt vi PACOM gm c: - Joint Interagency Task Forces West [Lc Lng Lin V Tc Chin c Nhim Min Ty]; - Joint Special Operations Task Forces Philippines [Lc Lng c Bit Phi Hp Tc Chin c Nhim Phi Lut Tn]; - Joint Task Force-Support Forces Antartica [Lc Lng Lin Tr c Nhim Nam Cc]; - Marine Force Pacific [Lc Lng Thy Qun Lc Chin Vng Thi Bnh Dng]; - Pacific Air Force [Khng on Hoa K ti Thi Bnh Dng] - US Army Pacific [Qun on B Binh Hoa K ti Thi Bnh Dng] - US Coast Guard 14th Division [S on Tun Hi 14]- US Force Japan [Binh Chng Hoa K c Nhim Nht Bn] - US Force Korea [Binh Chng Hoa K c Nhim i Hn] - US Pacific Fleet [Hm i Hoa K ti Thi Bnh Dng] - US Special Orerations Command Pacific [Lc Lng c Bit Thuc T Lnh Thi Bnh Dng] - Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies [Trung Tm An Ninh S V c Trch Thi Bnh Dng]

2. So snh Kh Nng Chin Thut:

Trong giai on ny, him ho Trung Quc v mt qun s, d mi lc mi dn dp, vn cha t ti mc trm trng ng k, khi kh nng chin u ca Hoa K vn vt mc nhiu th chin thut. Trc ht trn mt bin, cc chin hm, chin thuyn Hoa K c tng s trng ti gn 3 triu tn, ngang vi mc trng ti chung ton cu, trong khi hi qun Trung Quc ch chuyn ng ni khong 250 ngn tn. Hoa K c tt c 11 hng khng mu hm ang hot ng [3] trn tng s 21 chic ton cu, trong khi Trung Quc cn loay hoay ti dng chic tu sn bay va mua lc xoong ca Ukraina. [4] V loi chin hm ny, Trung Quc cn km c Thi Lan. [5] cp nht ho nhu cu chin thut mi lc mi a dng, Hi Qun Hoa K phn loi ba loi chin hm, chin thuyn, vi tc dng v kh nng tc chin chnh xc cho tng mt trn, tng mi trng i tc: [a] Chin Thut im ta Cho Vin Chinh [platform for offshore bombing]: Cc hng khng mu hm thuc Tam & Tht Hm i [Third & Seventh Fleets] c dng vo chin thut vin chinh ti vng Chu Thi Bnh Dng, nh mi v th trn mt bin tr thnh im ta sn bay cho cc khu trc, oanh tc c ti gn c im th bom hay oanh kch mc tiu. [b] Chin Thut Gip Chin Bit Kch [Littoral Special Operation Combat]: s dng vo chin thut gip chin bit kch ven b bin, Hi Qun Hoa K cho General Dynamics v Lockheed Martin ch to loi chin thuyn c nh, di vo khong 135 thc [400 feet], c kh nng di chuyn nhanh trn mt nc cn. Loi chin thuyn gip chin ven bin ny c gi l littoral-combat ship [LCS] thng c dng chuyn qun bit kch Navy SEALs trong nhng cuc gip chin vi cc nhm phin lon ti Indonesia, Malaysia, v Philippines. Ngoi ra, Hi Qun Hoa K cn cho ch to loi chin thuyn Mark V, nh hn, di vo khong 27 thc [80 feet], di chuyn nhanh vi tc 50 dm bin mt gi v kh nng chuyn ng xuyn 600 hi l ti a im tc chin. Cc i bit kch Navy SEALs s th phao c ng c nh, di gn 2 thc [5 feet] cp b mt cch thun tin. Ph tn ch to tu Mark V khong 5 triu M Kim mt chic, cha bng mt phn mi gi ca mt phn lc chin u F/A-22. [c] Chin Thut Bit Kch Ln Nhp [stealth operations]:

 thc hin chin thut bit kch xm nhp ln vo a phn ch, Hi Qun Hoa K dng cc tim thy nh c nh, chy bng du cn diesel chuyn ch v th cm t qun [commandos] ln b trc ht git ch, sau xm nhp kn o vo su a phng lp t chin u. Mt khuyt im v vic s dng tim thy nh c nh l s hn ch cung cp dng c v ho lc tc chin. Do , lc lng cm t qun phi l nhng n v bit kch xng xo linh ng, nhm mc ni vi cc phn t tc chin bn trong t lin. D sao, tim thy nh vn l loi chin thuyn c trin vng trong tng lai v c kh nng ln chn d dng di y bin trnh ho tin ca ch. V mt chin thut, nu tng trng v tn trang thm, h thng tim thy nh s hu hiu hn cc hng khng mu hm. Ngoi ra, Hi Qun Hoa K cng tn trang bn [04] tim thy nh c ln [Trident subs], chy bng nguyn t lc, vi kh nng va phng tn la t di mt nc [submarine-launched ballistic missile SLBM], va dng ho lc quy c [conventional warheads] mt cch chp nhong v chnh xc, ng thi cn chuyn ch v b t cc n v bit kch xm nhp, vi y ho lc cn thit. Loi tim thy nh tn trang ny cn c th phng ln nhng my bay thm st khng ngi li ng di [long-range unmanned spy aircraft], do chuyn vin iu khin t tim thy nh. Ngoi ra, tu ngm cng c th tr thnh nhng tr s t lnh vin chin di ng, m ch qun kh c th xc nh ngay v tr.

III. a Din Ho Chin Lc Mt trn chng chin tranh bt quy c phi linh ng tng t. 1. Phn Ho Bn Doanh Nhm a trng Ho Trc Chin Lc Trc ht Hoa K cn phn ho bn doanh ct [a] tng thm a bn chun b giao chin, thm bn p phng ho, tung my bay oanh tc, thm thnh, th bom; thm trung tm dng qun hay tung lc lng tham chin v [b] cng phn ho p lc t ph ca ch qun hay trnh ho lc ca h. Hi o Guam l mt a ht ca Hoa K [American territory] nn hon ton thuc quyn s dng ca quc gia ny. Guam nm ngay ti rn Thi bnh Dng, st cnh Bin ng Nam , i din Trung Quc, nn c v th chin lc c bit: nu lm chin, Trung Quc phi ng ngay hay b trc tin vo Guam, lp tc tr thnh k xm lng cn phi trng pht. Ngc li, hi qun v khng qun Hoa K s chp nhong tr a Trung Quc hay ti can thip ti bt c a bn no trong Vng b Trung Quc ln p, cn c vo thc trng sau y: [a] Theo k hoch khai trin v tr chin lc ton din ca PACOM, Guam tr thnh trc chin lc c trch Bin ng Nam , tip ni v phn ho bn doanh t lnh ca PACOM ti Ha Uy Di [Hawaii], va tng ni lc[locus of U.S. power], va phn ho din phng th [defense diversion]. [b] Trung tm Khng Lc Andersen, t pha Bc hi o Guam, l cn c ca loi my bay qun s nh pho i th bom B-52, phi c vin chuyn Globemasters C-17, phi c oanh kch siu thanh F/A-18 Hornets ca Hi Qun, hay phi c thm thnh E-2 Hawkeye v.v., Phi trng vi bi p hn 10 ngn feet [hn 3 cy s] c th p ng cho bt c phi v tc chin no hoc cho php phi c p khn cp bt k lc no. Andersen cng c kh nng tn tr thng xuyn hn 100,000 tri bom v tn la, gn 300 triu lt [70 million gallons] xng my bay, bin Andersan thnh kho v kh n dc, xng nht qun s ln nht trn ton cu. [c] Guam cng l mt cn c hi qun ln nht trong vng, vi i tim thy nh tn trang. 2. Lin Kt Phng Th v Tc Chin

Hoa K ch mun tng trng lc lng qun s ti Guam mc ti thun, nn tm mi cch tn lc [dispersion] ti nhiu trm phng th, v cng l chuyn lc sang nhiu trm tc chin khi hu s, thc hin mt chin tuyn ton din [fullscale war]. l l do Hoa K cn tp qun hay ho lc ti mt s a im Hp tc An Ninh [cooperative security locations [CSL]. Saipan, Mariana Islands, trc y l trung tm tnh bo c v [CIA Covert Activities] trong thi chin tranh lnh, nay vn gi mt n v hi qun trong th phi hp chin lc vi n v hi qun ti Guam. Palau, mt qun o nm gia Mindanao v Phi Lut Tn [the Philippines] c Hoa K tr gip ti chnh nn cam kt phng th cng lc lng Hoa K khi c chin tranh. Nh vy, Palau a trng ho vng ai phng th v tc chin, tch v ni trc chin lc Guam v Mariana Islands. Hoa K cn gi nhiu n v tc chin v phng th ti Nht Bn, Nam Hn, Phi Lut Tn, trong th lin kt hp tc an ninh. Hoa K cng dnh cho Vit Nam nhiu chng trnh hng dn tham mu v qun s ti H Uy Di, i bn doanh PACOM, thao din chung ngay ti bin ng, trang b qun phc, sng ng, trn cn bn hp tc ngm v phng th an ninh khu vc. Cng Sn Vit Nam tr thnh mt th chui rng, da cn nhng lng bt u trng. Hoa K cng t nhiu c s tr chin v bi p tc chin ti Trung , st ranh Ty Hoa, nht l ti Karshi-Khanabad thuc Uzbekistan v Manas thuc Kyrgyzstan, di hnh thc a im hp tc an ninh. Phi nhn mnh l trong th lin kt phng thu an ninh trn, cc quc gia lin kt thng cn ti s tr lc ca Hoa K [i Loan, Nam Hn, Phi Lut Tn, Vit Nam] v cc a im hp tc phng th u c li ch ngay vi quc gia n mi [host country]. l trch nhim ca B ngoi giao Hoa K trong vic duy tr mt ng li giao t n ho, nhn o, sn sng tr gip cc quc gia bn khi c thin tai hay tai ng nhn to nh chin tranh, lon lc, i km, nhim mi trng, v.v.. Dn chng khi c tn tnh gip s sn sng ng sau lng chnh quyn a phng c v cc chng trnh hp tc ton din.

3. Lin Minh Phng Th v Tc Chin Nu c chin tranh vi Trung Quc, cch i ph hu hiu nht phi l giao tranh trn nhiu mt trn, phi hp, phn chia hay lun phin, lu ng. Vy, ngoi vic phi hp lc lng qun s gia PACOM v cc quc gia lin kt hp tc an ninh trong vng ng Nam v gip ranh Trung Quc, Hoa K cn c th lin minh vi NATO [North Atlantic Treaty Organization/T chc Minh c Bc i Ty Dng] dn qun vin chinh p chin Trung Quc ti vng Ty Hoa, hoc sau vo lc a, khi Trung Quc c th kt cu li vi Nga tr thnh mt him ho ln trn ton cu, ngay ti Chu u. Chng ta cng cn bit, song song vi s mng duy tr ho bnh v ngn chn chin tranh xm lc, NATO bin ho khc xa vi T chc t khi thnh lp sau Nh Th Chin. Lin minh NATO ngy hm nay to dng mt h thng chin hm lu ng, vi kh nng vin chin hng hu. Hoa Lan, Na Uy, c, Tay Ban Nha c h thng chin hm tc cao, gn tn la v sn tu b. Php v Anh ang tn to mt s hng khng mu hm vi k thut cao. K c Thy in cng ang ch to mt s tim thy nh m t ai bit ti. NATO tr thnh mt qun trng Hoa K c bit dnh cho cc nc Trung u sau khi cc nc ny c gii th khi ch cng sn: Thy qun lc chin Hoa K hun luyn ti Romania v Bulgaria; Hi qun ti Albania; B binh ti Ba Lan, Tip Khc; Lc Lng Bit Kch ti Georgia, v.v. Do , qun lc hn hp NATO sn sng tip tay vi Hoa K tung hm i tn trang v cc n v tc chin tinh nhu hi nhp chin lc dn sc ngn chn [deterrence] v khi cn, sn sng dn dng chin thut p o t pha mc tiu Trung Quc.

Trn bnh din qun s, mt cuc tn cng ton din t t pha nh vy s c th x tan Trung Quc ra thnh nhiu mnh, u ui khng cu c nhau. Cc quc gia hin ang b Trung Quc thng tr nh Mn chu, Mng C, Ty Tng, Thim Ty, cc dn tc Hi Gio Uighuirsch ch c c hi l ni dy. Cc quc gia lng ging nh Vit Nam, Cambodia, Thi Lan, n thc c tham vng v m mu thm c cu Trung Quc, c thi c chc chn s kt hp vi Hoa K thnh mt lc lng tn cng t Nam v Ty Nam. T pha Bc v Ty bc Nga cha chc s lin minh vi Trung Quc, v nhng tranh chp lnh th v thc h. T pha ng l Nht Bn v Nam Hn, i Loan cng thm NATO v Lin Minh Thi Bnh Dng, nu ng thi tn cng, s bin Trung Quc li tr li thi cui th k th 19, khi Quc T chia nhau xu x nc Tu. Tnh trng ny c th xy ra ty thuc vo kh nng thuyt phc v lin kt ca Hoa K. [6] V. Tm Kt Trong Cnh Tnh V di hn, Hoa K cn duy tr i ngha dn ch t bn hi ho, kt sinh, o c to dng trn ton cu mt nn thnh vng nhn bn chung. V ngn hn, vi nhng chu k khong tm nm mt, song song vi nhim k ca cc v Tng Thng ti chc, Hoa K s phi n c lc lng qun s mt cch kim ch hay ph trng t, ty theo nhu cu th s, nhng lun lun mc cnh bo v chun b ti a kp thi dp tt mi m mu ph hoi, cn tr lch trnh tin ho ca nhn loi. Nh vy, ho bnh, tranh chp, cnh bo v chin tranh na lnh, na nng s lun phin ti tc trong sut th k 21, cho ti khi nhng bn lm chin t ti mt minh c bo trng quyn li v trch nhim a phng, mt cch cng bng, lu bn. Quyn li v trch nhim chung phi c phn chia tng xng, minh bch theo mt trt t kh quan nht, kt sinh, a dng, a thc, m nhn loi v phm gi con ngi cn c tn trng ng u v ton din. Trong khi ch i, nhng trng trch ca PACOM phi c ton Khu Vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng tn trng v thc thi, vi mc ch [a] bo an khu vc, [b] ngn chn mi giao chin xm lc, v [c] khi hu s, phi sn sng lm chin ton b [d] vn hi an ninh v ho bnh thnh vng cho vng Chu Thi Bnh Dng. Th lc sinh tn, phc li v o c nhn bn phi nng ta ln nhau trong cng ng th gii tin ho mt cch cng bng, m mn, d cn gp nhiu tr ngi, nhiu thch thc.

TS-LS LU NGUYN T www.vietthuc.org [1] Trung Quc l Cp giy Khoa hoc?, Nguyn Vn Tun, www.vietthuc.org, Aug. 6, 2011. Nguyenvantuanblog, Aug. 6, 2011. Trung Quc ch l h giy v qun s, Tra My. Is Chinas military a paper tiger or a real tiger?, Robert Haddick, Small Wars Journal. China a paper tiger, Justin Raimondo. [2] US Pacific Command [PACOM], Strategic Guidance, Links, [3] List of aircraft carriers of the United States Navy [ l 1 tu sn bay ht nhn lp Enterprise l Enterprise CVN 65; 10 tu sn bay ht nhn lp Nimitz: Nimitz CVN68, Eisenhower CVN69, Carl Vinson CVN70, Roosevelt CVN71, Lincoln CVN72, Washington CVN73, Stennis CVN73, Truman CVN75, Ronald Reagan CVN76, Bush CVN77...] [A & 4] Varyag: ex-Soviet Navy carrier sold to China by Ukraine being refitted in Dalian. Nay Trung Quc ci tn chic hng khng mu hm lc xoong ny l Thi Lang mt cch om xm! [5] Thailand Chakri Naruebet (1996) [6] Cn c vo phn gp b tc ca cu i t Khng Qun VNCH Nguyn Vn Thm.