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Economist Conference May 17th 2001- May 19th 2011

Grand Resort Lagonissi, Athens, Greece

In the aftermath of the global economic crisis: what next?


, ( 1). :
,
,
,

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TURKEY
SYRIA
GREECE

CYPRUS

LIBYA

LEBANON

ISRAEL
EGYPT

1.

1:

(UNCLOS),
Montego
Bay,
(UNCLOS), (Montego Bay Jamaica, 1982, Mazis,
Jamaica, 1982, Mazis, 2011
2011)

.


3-4 ( 2),

.

1
2

Hydrocarbon
Exploration Areas

Olimpi Field M.F.V.


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as
ek us B
e
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ro
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in

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1.

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OLIMPI
3. Nation

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Nation

OLIMPI,
3.
United
Rise, 4.

Rise. 4.

2
9 ,
. :
,
, , 1,5 M3.
,
( Shah Deniz), .
.
2 M3,
(
SHELL, BP), OMV

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.
3,5 M3 0,75
M3 , 25

$ 223.75 . :
1.

146 .
$14,6 .
25 ,
, 3,65 .
$ 365 .

,
$7,5/Gj ( 25), $42,64/ ,
$ 155, 62 .

$ 365 . - $155,62,75 . = $ 209,38


.
.

2.

3,5 . 3
$ 12,5/Gj,
$ 7,5/Gj, (
25), :

3,5 3 35.315 /3 = 123.60


1000 1Gj
123,6 ($12,5/Gj$7,5/Gj) =
=$ 615 . / 25 = $ 14,37
.

3.

2,75 3
2,75 3 X 35.315
/3 = 97,116 .

1000 1Gj
97,116 $7,5/Gj ( 25) = $ 728,36 .
20%
$ 145.67 . .

4.

100000 200000
= 300000 .
300000 $30000// = $ 9 ./
$ 9 / 25 = $ 225 25
30% = $ 67,5
.


25 $ 437
$1,45/1 302 .


, 1000 $ 20000/, $ 25


10-12
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.

.
.

2020


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1.

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2005 86 ( 3).
42 ( 4).
44
. , , .
25
11 ., (BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010), 3,5
.
6 .
$ 115/.

3.

EIAs
3:


EIAs
(Energy
Information
(Energy
Information
Administration),
International
Administration), International Petroleum Monthly, Likvern, R., November 2010)
Petroleum Monthly, Likvern, R., November 2010



4:
4.




, Likvern, September 2010
, Likvern, September 2010

2009, 2020
65 ( 5),

25
,
, , . .. 2020
PIIGS
(Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain).

PRODUCTION
in 2031
45 million bar./day

5:4.

2020 2031

5.


2012, Worlds
Liquid
Fuels Supply
by EIA,
2009
Energy
Information
Administration
(EIA),
US, Department
of Energy, 2009.
2012, Worlds Liquid Fuels Supply by EIA, 2009

, 11 .
, , , 620 3
.
2.

. .. ,
, 500 3/ ( 6).
150
3/ 90 3/
, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010.

6:


6.
,


R.,

,
Likvern, R., August 2010.
,
Likvern,
August 2010.
(www.energybulletin.net/node/53656
www.energybulletin.net/node/53656Cashed
and
in
August
3,
2010
the
Oil
Drum
Cashed and in August 3, 2010 the Oil Drum)

2020, 120 , ..
725 3.
225 3 , ( 7).

7.

2001
7:

2001

2009.

2010.
2009. 2020, Likvern, R., August
2020, Likvern, R. August 2010.
(www.energybulletin.net/node/53656
- Cashed and in August 3, 2010 the Oil Drum)
www.energybulletin.net/node/53656- Cashed August 3, 2010 the Oil Drum


2020 , 800 3 .
,

47 3 600 3
2/3
, , ,
6,2 3 (BP
Statistical Review of World Energy 2010).


,
BEICIP/FRANLAB-IFP
.. 2020 , 850 3/,
.
( ).
USGS Technical Report 2010,
2,95
3
9.76 3 (345
)1 , , 1,3 . 3
, Semb, 2009.
,

17,8 3, ( 1).

1:
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1. ,

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.

50%

1.8

6.31

0.7

1.81

0.3

2.02

1.21

3.53

2.5

0.3

14.8

USGS Technical Report 2010. 2 BEICIP/FRANLAB PGS. 3


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, , 15
(1.2 3)
Nabucco. , ,
4 3
30 , , , , ,
14 3 ..
2020, 120 , 35
.
(CNG),


(LNG).


Shefla,
, 2011, 2
,
( 8 9).

8. -

Prof. A. Foscolos & Dr. E. Konofagos

8: -

9. .

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