Month

Passengers
Jan-49
112
Feb-49
118
Mar-49
132
Apr-49
129
May-49
121
Jun-49
135
Jul-49
148
Aug-49
148
Sep-49
136
Oct-49
119
Nov-49
104
Dec-49
118
Jan-50
115
Feb-50
126
Mar-50
141
Apr-50
135
May-50
125
Jun-50
149
Jul-50
170
Aug-50
170
Sep-50
158
Oct-50
133
Nov-50
114
Dec-50
140
Jan-51
145
Feb-51
150
Mar-51
178
Apr-51
163
May-51
172
Jun-51
178
Jul-51
199
Aug-51
199
Sep-51
184
Oct-51
162
Nov-51
146
Dec-51
166
Jan-52
171
Feb-52
180
Mar-52
193
Apr-52
181
May-52
183
Jun-52
218
Jul-52
230
Aug-52
242
Sep-52
209
Oct-52
191
Nov-52
172
Dec-52
194
Jan-53
196
Feb-53
196
Mar-53
236

Apr-53
May-53
Jun-53
Jul-53
Aug-53
Sep-53
Oct-53
Nov-53
Dec-53
Jan-54
Feb-54
Mar-54
Apr-54
May-54
Jun-54
Jul-54
Aug-54
Sep-54
Oct-54
Nov-54
Dec-54
Jan-55
Feb-55
Mar-55
Apr-55
May-55
Jun-55
Jul-55
Aug-55
Sep-55
Oct-55
Nov-55
Dec-55
Jan-56
Feb-56
Mar-56
Apr-56
May-56
Jun-56
Jul-56
Aug-56
Sep-56
Oct-56
Nov-56
Dec-56
Jan-57
Feb-57
Mar-57
Apr-57
May-57
Jun-57
Jul-57

235
229
243
264
272
237
211
180
201
204
188
235
227
234
264
302
293
259
229
203
229
242
233
267
269
270
315
364
347
312
274
237
278
284
277
317
313
318
374
413
405
355
306
271
306
315
301
356
348
355
422
465

Aug-57
Sep-57
Oct-57
Nov-57
Dec-57
Jan-58
Feb-58
Mar-58
Apr-58
May-58
Jun-58
Jul-58
Aug-58
Sep-58
Oct-58
Nov-58
Dec-58
Jan-59
Feb-59
Mar-59
Apr-59
May-59
Jun-59
Jul-59
Aug-59
Sep-59
Oct-59
Nov-59
Dec-59
Jan-60
Feb-60
Mar-60
Apr-60
May-60
Jun-60
Jul-60
Aug-60
Sep-60
Oct-60
Nov-60
Dec-60

467
404
347
305
336
340
318
362
348
363
435
491
505
404
359
310
337
360
342
406
396
420
472
548
559
463
407
362
405
417
391
419
461
472
535
622
606
508
461
390
432

0
0

Month
Passengers 2*12 Ma (jan)
2*12(Feb)
2**MA12
2E+12 detrend data
Jan-49
112
the first six months
126.6667
are average
0.884210526
of 12 months
Feb-49
118
126.9167 0.929743926
Mar-49
132
127.5833 1.034617897
Apr-49
129
128.3333 1.005194805
May-49
121
128.8333 0.93919793
Jun-49
135
129.1667 1.04516129
Jul-49
148
126.6666667
126.9166667 126.7916667 126.7917 1.167269142
Aug-49
148
126.9166667
127.5833333
127.25
127.25 1.163064833
Sep-49
136
127.5833333
128.3333333 127.9583333 127.9583 1.062845979
Oct-49
119
128.3333333
128.8333333 128.5833333 128.5833 0.925469864
Nov-49
104
128.8333333
129.1666667
129
129 0.80620155
Dec-49
118
129.1666667
130.3333333
129.75
129.75 0.909441233
Jan-50
115
130.3333333
132.1666667
131.25
131.25 0.876190476
Feb-50
126
132.1666667
134 133.0833333 133.0833 0.946775204
Mar-50
141
134
135.8333333 134.9166667 134.9167 1.045089561
Apr-50
135
135.8333333
137 136.4166667 136.4167 0.98961515
May-50
125
137
137.8333333 137.4166667 137.4167 0.909642207
Jun-50
149
137.8333333
139.6666667
138.75
138.75 1.073873874
Jul-50
170
139.6666667
142.1666667 140.9166667 140.9167 1.206386753
Aug-50
170
142.1666667
144.1666667 143.1666667 143.1667 1.187427241
Sep-50
158
144.1666667
147.25 145.7083333 145.7083 1.084358021
Oct-50
133
147.25
149.5833333 148.4166667 148.4167 0.896125772
Nov-50
114
149.5833333
153.5 151.5416667 151.5417 0.752268353
Dec-50
140
153.5
155.9166667 154.7083333 154.7083 0.904928629
Jan-51
145
155.9166667
158.3333333
157.125 157.125 0.92283214
Feb-51
150
158.3333333
160.75 159.5416667 159.5417 0.940193262
Mar-51
178
160.75
162.9166667 161.8333333 161.8333 1.099897013
Apr-51
163
162.9166667
165.3333333
164.125 164.125 0.993145468
May-51
172
165.3333333
168 166.6666667 166.6667
1.032
Jun-51
178
168
170.1666667 169.0833333 169.0833 1.052735338
Jul-51
199
170.1666667
172.3333333
171.25
171.25 1.162043796
Aug-51
199
172.3333333
174.8333333 173.5833333 173.5833 1.146423428
Sep-51
184
174.8333333
176.0833333 175.4583333 175.4583 1.048682023
Oct-51
162
176.0833333
177.5833333 176.8333333 176.8333 0.916116871
Nov-51
146
177.5833333
178.5 178.0416667 178.0417 0.820032764
Dec-51
166
178.5
181.8333333 180.1666667 180.1667 0.921369103
Jan-52
171
181.8333333
184.4166667
183.125 183.125 0.933788396
Feb-52
180
184.4166667
188 186.2083333 186.2083 0.966659208
Mar-52
193
188
190.0833333 189.0416667 189.0417 1.020938946
Apr-52
181
190.0833333
192.5 191.2916667 191.2917 0.946199085
May-52
183
192.5
194.6666667 193.5833333 193.5833 0.945329316
Jun-52
218
194.6666667
197 195.8333333 195.8333 1.113191489
Jul-52
230
197
199.0833333 198.0416667 198.0417 1.161371765
Aug-52
242
199.0833333
200.4166667
199.75
199.75 1.211514393
Sep-52
209
200.4166667
204 202.2083333 202.2083 1.033587472
Oct-52
191
204
208.5
206.25
206.25 0.926060606
Nov-52
172
208.5
212.3333333 210.4166667 210.4167 0.817425743
Dec-52
194
212.3333333
214.4166667
213.375 213.375 0.909197422
Jan-53
196
214.4166667
217.25 215.8333333 215.8333 0.908108108
Feb-53
196
217.25
219.75
218.5
218.5 0.897025172
Mar-53
236
219.75
222.0833333 220.9166667 220.9167 1.068276122
Apr-53
235
222.0833333
223.75 222.9166667 222.9167 1.054205607
May-53
229
223.75
224.4166667 224.0833333 224.0833 1.021941242
Jun-53
243
224.4166667
225 224.7083333 224.7083 1.081401817

Jul-53
Aug-53
Sep-53
Oct-53
Nov-53
Dec-53
Jan-54
Feb-54
Mar-54
Apr-54
May-54
Jun-54
Jul-54
Aug-54
Sep-54
Oct-54
Nov-54
Dec-54
Jan-55
Feb-55
Mar-55
Apr-55
May-55
Jun-55
Jul-55
Aug-55
Sep-55
Oct-55
Nov-55
Dec-55
Jan-56
Feb-56
Mar-56
Apr-56
May-56
Jun-56
Jul-56
Aug-56
Sep-56
Oct-56
Nov-56
Dec-56
Jan-57
Feb-57
Mar-57
Apr-57
May-57
Jun-57
Jul-57
Aug-57
Sep-57
Oct-57
Nov-57
Dec-57
Jan-58

264
272
237
211
180
201
204
188
235
227
234
264
302
293
259
229
203
229
242
233
267
269
270
315
364
347
312
274
237
278
284
277
317
313
318
374
413
405
355
306
271
306
315
301
356
348
355
422
465
467
404
347
305
336
340

225
225.6666667
225
224.9166667
224.25
224.6666667
226.4166667
229.5833333
231.3333333
233.1666667
234.6666667
236.5833333
238.9166667
242.0833333
245.8333333
248.5
252
255
259.25
264.4166667
268.9166667
273.3333333
277.0833333
279.9166667
284
287.5
291.1666667
295.3333333
299
303
307.9166667
312
316.8333333
320.4166667
323.0833333
325.9166667
328.25
330.8333333
332.8333333
336.0833333
339
342.0833333
346.0833333
350.4166667
355.5833333
359.6666667
363.0833333
365.9166667
368.4166667
370.5
371.9166667
372.4166667
372.4166667
373.0833333
374.1666667

225.6666667
225
224.9166667
224.25
224.6666667
226.4166667
229.5833333
231.3333333
233.1666667
234.6666667
236.5833333
238.9166667
242.0833333
245.8333333
248.5
252
255
259.25
264.4166667
268.9166667
273.3333333
277.0833333
279.9166667
284
287.5
291.1666667
295.3333333
299
303
307.9166667
312
316.8333333
320.4166667
323.0833333
325.9166667
328.25
330.8333333
332.8333333
336.0833333
339
342.0833333
346.0833333
350.4166667
355.5833333
359.6666667
363.0833333
365.9166667
368.4166667
370.5
371.9166667
372.4166667
372.4166667
373.0833333
374.1666667
376.3333333

225.3333333
225.3333333
224.9583333
224.5833333
224.4583333
225.5416667
228
230.4583333
232.25
233.9166667
235.625
237.75
240.5
243.9583333
247.1666667
250.25
253.5
257.125
261.8333333
266.6666667
271.125
275.2083333
278.5
281.9583333
285.75
289.3333333
293.25
297.1666667
301
305.4583333
309.9583333
314.4166667
318.625
321.75
324.5
327.0833333
329.5416667
331.8333333
334.4583333
337.5416667
340.5416667
344.0833333
348.25
353
357.625
361.375
364.5
367.1666667
369.4583333
371.2083333
372.1666667
372.4166667
372.75
373.625
375.25

225.3333
225.3333
224.9583
224.5833
224.4583
225.5417
228
230.4583
232.25
233.9167
235.625
237.75
240.5
243.9583
247.1667
250.25
253.5
257.125
261.8333
266.6667
271.125
275.2083
278.5
281.9583
285.75
289.3333
293.25
297.1667
301
305.4583
309.9583
314.4167
318.625
321.75
324.5
327.0833
329.5417
331.8333
334.4583
337.5417
340.5417
344.0833
348.25
353
357.625
361.375
364.5
367.1667
369.4583
371.2083
372.1667
372.4167
372.75
373.625
375.25

1.171597633
1.207100592
1.053528431
0.939517625
0.801930574
0.891187881
0.894736842
0.815765684
1.011840689
0.970431065
0.993103448
1.110410095
1.255717256
1.201024765
1.047875927
0.915084915
0.800788955
0.890617404
0.924252069
0.87375
0.984785615
0.977441332
0.969479354
1.117186346
1.27384077
1.199308756
1.063938619
0.922041503
0.787375415
0.910107762
0.916252184
0.880996554
0.994899961
0.972804973
0.979969183
1.14343949
1.253255785
1.220492215
1.061417715
0.906554746
0.795791019
0.889319448
0.904522613
0.852691218
0.995456134
0.962988585
0.9739369
1.149341807
1.258599301
1.258053654
1.085535155
0.93175207
0.81824279
0.899297424
0.906062625

Feb-58
Mar-58
Apr-58
May-58
Jun-58
Jul-58
Aug-58
Sep-58
Oct-58
Nov-58
Dec-58
Jan-59
Feb-59
Mar-59
Apr-59
May-59
Jun-59
Jul-59
Aug-59
Sep-59
Oct-59
Nov-59
Dec-59
Jan-60
Feb-60
Mar-60
Apr-60
May-60
Jun-60
Jul-60
Aug-60
Sep-60
Oct-60
Nov-60
Dec-60

318
362
348
363
435
491
505
404
359
310
337
360
342
406
396
420
472
548
559
463
407
362
405
417
391
419
461
472
535
622
606
508
461
390
432

376.3333333
379.5
379.5
380.5
380.9166667
381
382.6666667
384.6666667
388.3333333
392.3333333
397.0833333
400.1666667
404.9166667
409.4166667
414.3333333
418.3333333
422.6666667
428.3333333
433.0833333
437.1666667
438.25
443.6666667
448
453.25
459.4166667
463.3333333
467.0833333
471.5833333
473.9166667
476.1666667

379.5
379.5
380.5
380.9166667
381
382.6666667
384.6666667
388.3333333
392.3333333
397.0833333
400.1666667
404.9166667
409.4166667
414.3333333
418.3333333
422.6666667
428.3333333
433.0833333
437.1666667
438.25
443.6666667
448
453.25
459.4166667
463.3333333
467.0833333
471.5833333
473.9166667
476.1666667

377.9166667
379.5
380
380.7083333
380.9583333
381.8333333
383.6666667
386.5
390.3333333
394.7083333
398.625
402.5416667
407.1666667
411.875
416.3333333
420.5
425.5
430.7083333
435.125
437.7083333
440.9583333
445.8333333
450.625
456.3333333
461.375
465.2083333
469.3333333
472.75
475.0416667
453.25
459.4166667
463.3333333
467.0833333
471.5833333
473.9166667

377.9167
379.5
380
380.7083
380.9583
381.8333
383.6667
386.5
390.3333
394.7083
398.625
402.5417
407.1667
411.875
416.3333
420.5
425.5
430.7083
435.125
437.7083
440.9583
445.8333
450.625
456.3333
461.375
465.2083
469.3333
472.75
475.0417
453.25
459.4167
463.3333
467.0833
471.5833
473.9167

0.841455347
0.953886693
0.915789474
0.953485827
1.141857158
1.285901353
1.316246742
1.045278137
0.919726729
0.785390056
0.845406083
0.894317358
0.83995088
0.985735964
0.951160929
0.998810939
1.109283196
1.272322724
1.284688308
1.057782009
0.9229897
0.811962617
0.898751734
0.913805698
0.847466811
0.900671742
0.982244318
0.998413538
1.126216999
1.372311087
1.31906403
1.096402878
0.986975914
0.827001237
0.911552664

Passengers
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Apr-60

Jul-59

Oct-58

Jan-58

Apr-57

Jul-56

Oct-55

Jan-55

Apr-54

Jul-53

Jan-52

Oct-52

Apr-51

Jul-50

Oct-49

Irregular data
1.1
1.05
1
0.95
0.9
1
9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
105
113
121
129

Irregular data
0.975314756
1.049325668
1.026398469
1.029102504
0.962021088
0.945555034
0.943844138
0.948510949
1.001013982
0.999749924
1.005195906
1.012254507
0.964304356
1.073360585
1.039281072
1.015839889
0.928541233
0.966746291
0.970519735
0.963867461
1.021368692
0.968028609
0.938393657
1.008355103
1.012024042
1.07377591
1.098097355
1.021081142
1.045966821
0.944575431
0.93209865
0.927233205
0.989880324
0.986469861
1.016660978
1.027533112
1.025409173
1.113126797
1.030500634
0.975098249
0.963041822
0.992706837
0.92458399
0.972020138
0.974536377
0.995680369
1.015308402
1.017070417
1.00038658
1.047758045
1.082407915
1.083032371
1.036301738
0.963479522

Jan-49

seasonal index
0.90658992
0.886039439
1.008008028
0.976768399
0.976275824
1.105341575
1.236718114
1.226200746
1.061769364
0.92570136
0.802034256
0.898431399
0.90862441
0.882066304
1.005588949
0.974184181
0.979646541
1.11081251
1.243031657
1.231940375
1.06167149
0.925722405
0.801655411
0.897430505
0.911867803
0.875595414
1.001638888
0.972641084
0.986646975
1.114506373
1.246696147
1.236391688
1.059402837
0.928682068
0.806594117
0.896680692
0.910649544
0.868417875
0.990721319
0.970362819
0.98160775
1.121369822
1.256101964
1.246388162
1.060594038
0.930078201
0.805100934
0.893937536
0.907757187
0.856137708
0.986944115
0.973383285
0.986142554
1.122392113

1.267943238
1.250747383
1.063969859
0.9305804
0.803560333
0.89203005
0.907707056
0.850296642
0.975325257
0.961837239
0.981028456
1.12824787
1.281706896
1.256982639
1.065461491
0.929303654
0.803793156
0.89215036
0.909868758
0.856051802
0.969239352
0.960404935
0.979015957
1.131220833
1.286038503
1.266308951
1.068392419
0.931673444
0.804293856
0.892405852
0.906992096
0.852512162
0.966130099
0.956997656
0.980923277
1.13402773
1.28847805
1.27970899
1.069283179
0.933599832
0.807677544
0.888865471
0.904677074
0.845391064
0.958937633
0.953045826
0.981161801
1.13167479
1.297283616
1.294513184
1.071249544
0.940361103
0.810649175
0.888751976
0.90472856

0.92401426
0.965103432
0.99018635
1.009603925
0.997971827
0.999055896
0.985711014
0.959389516
1.037439236
1.008934802
1.012308504
0.984189843
0.979722633
0.955482382
0.983494885
0.984699577
0.99626247
0.998281729
1.015808116
1.020674214
1.016039654
1.017738765
0.990258991
0.987593504
0.990515266
0.947090167
0.995831307
0.989661677
0.978964852
1.019836164
1.010209669
1.0334123
1.029778455
1.016517613
0.999027351
1.008299409
0.972663667
0.953726374
0.992644172
0.971031394
0.985283081
1.000510738
0.999829265
1.008635239
1.038082248
1.010432614
0.992636382
1.01561139
0.970180526
0.971835335
1.013335464
0.99084497
1.009367326
1.011865456
1.001474547

0.84295768
0.9467648
0.949731574
0.983570101
1.125785784
1.310178388
1.30666636
1.066487674
0.943230781
0.80811797
0.885236827
0.904061528
0.843708846
0.943203853
0.966702623
0.998612239
1.117750097
1.322316905
1.301876169
1.077092443
0.954982807
0.819481927
0.905152199
0.913805698
0.847466811
0.900671742
0.982244318
0.998413538
1.126216999
1.372311087
1.31906403
1.096402878
0.986975914
0.827001237
0.911552664

0.998217785
1.007522347
0.964261376
0.969413187
1.014275695
0.981470436
1.007331927
0.980112722
0.975081335
0.9718755
0.955005551
0.989221785
0.995545898
1.045093233
0.983922983
1.000198977
0.99242505
0.962191982
0.986797622
0.982071702
0.966498761
0.990824313
0.992928852
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

assengers

detrend data
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
Passengers

detrend data

1
0.9

Apr-60

0.8
1
9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
105
113
121
129
137

0.7

ar data

seasonal index
1.38
1.28
1.18
Irregular data

1.08

seasonal index

0.98
0.88
1
9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
105
113
121
129
137

121
129
137

0.78

easonal index

Month
PassengersMov Avg (JAN)
Mov Avg (Feb)
Jan-49
112
Feb-49
118
Mar-49
132
Apr-49
129
May-49
121
Jun-49
135
Jul-49
148
126.6666667 126.9166667
Aug-49
148
126.9166667 127.5833333
Sep-49
136
127.5833333 128.3333333
Oct-49
119
128.3333333 128.8333333
Nov-49
104
128.8333333 129.1666667
Dec-49
118
129.1666667 130.3333333
Jan-50
115
130.3333333 132.1666667
Feb-50
126
132.1666667
134
Mar-50
141
134 135.8333333
Apr-50
135
135.8333333
137
May-50
125
137 137.8333333
Jun-50
149
137.8333333 139.6666667
Jul-50
170
139.6666667 142.1666667
Aug-50
170
142.1666667 144.1666667
Sep-50
158
144.1666667
147.25
Oct-50
133
147.25 149.5833333
Nov-50
114
149.5833333
153.5
Dec-50
140
153.5 155.9166667
Jan-51
145
155.9166667 158.3333333
Feb-51
150
158.3333333
160.75
Mar-51
178
160.75 162.9166667
Apr-51
163
162.9166667 165.3333333
May-51
172
165.3333333
168
Jun-51
178
168 170.1666667
Jul-51
199
170.1666667 172.3333333
Aug-51
199
172.3333333 174.8333333
Sep-51
184
174.8333333 176.0833333
Oct-51
162
176.0833333 177.5833333
Nov-51
146
177.5833333
178.5
Dec-51
166
178.5 181.8333333
Jan-52
171
181.8333333 184.4166667
Feb-52
180
184.4166667
188
Mar-52
193
188 190.0833333
Apr-52
181
190.0833333
192.5
May-52
183
192.5 194.6666667
Jun-52
218
194.6666667
197
Jul-52
230
197 199.0833333
Aug-52
242
199.0833333 200.4166667
Sep-52
209
200.4166667
204
Oct-52
191
204
208.5
Nov-52
172
208.5 212.3333333
Dec-52
194
212.3333333 214.4166667
Jan-53
196
214.4166667
217.25
Feb-53
196
217.25
219.75
Mar-53
236
219.75 222.0833333
Apr-53
235
222.0833333
223.75
May-53
229
223.75 224.4166667
Jun-53
243
224.4166667
225

Avg

126.7917
127.25
127.9583
128.5833
129
129.75
131.25
133.0833
134.9167
136.4167
137.4167
138.75
140.9167
143.1667
145.7083
148.4167
151.5417
154.7083
157.125
159.5417
161.8333
164.125
166.6667
169.0833
171.25
173.5833
175.4583
176.8333
178.0417
180.1667
183.125
186.2083
189.0417
191.2917
193.5833
195.8333
198.0417
199.75
202.2083
206.25
210.4167
213.375
215.8333
218.5
220.9167
222.9167
224.0833
224.7083

total data Detrend

126.6667 0.88421053
126.9167 0.92974393
127.5833
1.0346179
128.3333 1.00519481
128.8333 0.93919793
129.1667 1.04516129
126.7917 1.16726914
127.25 1.16306483
127.9583 1.06284598
128.5833 0.92546986
129 0.80620155
129.75 0.90944123
131.25 0.87619048
133.0833
0.9467752
134.9167 1.04508956
136.4167 0.98961515
137.4167 0.90964221
138.75 1.07387387
140.9167 1.20638675
143.1667 1.18742724
145.7083 1.08435802
148.4167 0.89612577
151.5417 0.75226835
154.7083 0.90492863
157.125 0.92283214
159.5417 0.94019326
161.8333 1.09989701
164.125 0.99314547
166.6667
1.032
169.0833 1.05273534
171.25
1.1620438
173.5833 1.14642343
175.4583 1.04868202
176.8333 0.91611687
178.0417 0.82003276
180.1667
0.9213691
183.125
0.9337884
186.2083 0.96665921
189.0417 1.02093895
191.2917 0.94619909
193.5833 0.94532932
195.8333 1.11319149
198.0417 1.16137177
199.75 1.21151439
202.2083 1.03358747
206.25 0.92606061
210.4167 0.81742574
213.375 0.90919742
215.8333 0.90810811
218.5 0.89702517
220.9167 1.06827612
222.9167 1.05420561
224.0833 1.02194124
224.7083 1.08140182

Seasonal
0.90659
0.886039
1.008008
0.976768
0.976276
1.105342
1.236718
1.226201
1.061769
0.925701
0.802034
0.898431
0.908624
0.882066
1.005589
0.974184
0.979647
1.110813
1.243032
1.23194
1.061671
0.925722
0.801655
0.897431
0.911868
0.875595
1.001639
0.972641
0.986647
1.114506
1.246696
1.236392
1.059403
0.928682
0.806594
0.896681
0.91065
0.868418
0.990721
0.970363
0.981608
1.12137
1.256102
1.246388
1.060594
0.930078
0.805101
0.893938
0.907757
0.856138
0.986944
0.973383
0.986143
1.122392

Jul-53
Aug-53
Sep-53
Oct-53
Nov-53
Dec-53
Jan-54
Feb-54
Mar-54
Apr-54
May-54
Jun-54
Jul-54
Aug-54
Sep-54
Oct-54
Nov-54
Dec-54
Jan-55
Feb-55
Mar-55
Apr-55
May-55
Jun-55
Jul-55
Aug-55
Sep-55
Oct-55
Nov-55
Dec-55
Jan-56
Feb-56
Mar-56
Apr-56
May-56
Jun-56
Jul-56
Aug-56
Sep-56
Oct-56
Nov-56
Dec-56
Jan-57
Feb-57
Mar-57
Apr-57
May-57
Jun-57
Jul-57
Aug-57
Sep-57
Oct-57
Nov-57
Dec-57
Jan-58

264
272
237
211
180
201
204
188
235
227
234
264
302
293
259
229
203
229
242
233
267
269
270
315
364
347
312
274
237
278
284
277
317
313
318
374
413
405
355
306
271
306
315
301
356
348
355
422
465
467
404
347
305
336
340

225
225.6666667
225
224.9166667
224.25
224.6666667
226.4166667
229.5833333
231.3333333
233.1666667
234.6666667
236.5833333
238.9166667
242.0833333
245.8333333
248.5
252
255
259.25
264.4166667
268.9166667
273.3333333
277.0833333
279.9166667
284
287.5
291.1666667
295.3333333
299
303
307.9166667
312
316.8333333
320.4166667
323.0833333
325.9166667
328.25
330.8333333
332.8333333
336.0833333
339
342.0833333
346.0833333
350.4166667
355.5833333
359.6666667
363.0833333
365.9166667
368.4166667
370.5
371.9166667
372.4166667
372.4166667
373.0833333
374.1666667

225.6666667
225
224.9166667
224.25
224.6666667
226.4166667
229.5833333
231.3333333
233.1666667
234.6666667
236.5833333
238.9166667
242.0833333
245.8333333
248.5
252
255
259.25
264.4166667
268.9166667
273.3333333
277.0833333
279.9166667
284
287.5
291.1666667
295.3333333
299
303
307.9166667
312
316.8333333
320.4166667
323.0833333
325.9166667
328.25
330.8333333
332.8333333
336.0833333
339
342.0833333
346.0833333
350.4166667
355.5833333
359.6666667
363.0833333
365.9166667
368.4166667
370.5
371.9166667
372.4166667
372.4166667
373.0833333
374.1666667
376.3333333

225.3333
225.3333
224.9583
224.5833
224.4583
225.5417
228
230.4583
232.25
233.9167
235.625
237.75
240.5
243.9583
247.1667
250.25
253.5
257.125
261.8333
266.6667
271.125
275.2083
278.5
281.9583
285.75
289.3333
293.25
297.1667
301
305.4583
309.9583
314.4167
318.625
321.75
324.5
327.0833
329.5417
331.8333
334.4583
337.5417
340.5417
344.0833
348.25
353
357.625
361.375
364.5
367.1667
369.4583
371.2083
372.1667
372.4167
372.75
373.625
375.25

225.3333
225.3333
224.9583
224.5833
224.4583
225.5417
228
230.4583
232.25
233.9167
235.625
237.75
240.5
243.9583
247.1667
250.25
253.5
257.125
261.8333
266.6667
271.125
275.2083
278.5
281.9583
285.75
289.3333
293.25
297.1667
301
305.4583
309.9583
314.4167
318.625
321.75
324.5
327.0833
329.5417
331.8333
334.4583
337.5417
340.5417
344.0833
348.25
353
357.625
361.375
364.5
367.1667
369.4583
371.2083
372.1667
372.4167
372.75
373.625
375.25

1.17159763
1.20710059
1.05352843
0.93951763
0.80193057
0.89118788
0.89473684
0.81576568
1.01184069
0.97043107
0.99310345
1.11041009
1.25571726
1.20102477
1.04787593
0.91508492
0.80078895
0.8906174
0.92425207
0.87375
0.98478562
0.97744133
0.96947935
1.11718635
1.27384077
1.19930876
1.06393862
0.9220415
0.78737542
0.91010776
0.91625218
0.88099655
0.99489996
0.97280497
0.97996918
1.14343949
1.25325578
1.22049221
1.06141772
0.90655475
0.79579102
0.88931945
0.90452261
0.85269122
0.99545613
0.96298859
0.9739369
1.14934181
1.2585993
1.25805365
1.08553515
0.93175207
0.81824279
0.89929742
0.90606262

1.267943
1.250747
1.06397
0.93058
0.80356
0.89203
0.907707
0.850297
0.975325
0.961837
0.981028
1.128248
1.281707
1.256983
1.065461
0.929304
0.803793
0.89215
0.909869
0.856052
0.969239
0.960405
0.979016
1.131221
1.286039
1.266309
1.068392
0.931673
0.804294
0.892406
0.906992
0.852512
0.96613
0.956998
0.980923
1.134028
1.288478
1.279709
1.069283
0.9336
0.807678
0.888865
0.904677
0.845391
0.958938
0.953046
0.981162
1.131675
1.297284
1.294513
1.07125
0.940361
0.810649
0.888752
0.904729

Feb-58
Mar-58
Apr-58
May-58
Jun-58
Jul-58
Aug-58
Sep-58
Oct-58
Nov-58
Dec-58
Jan-59
Feb-59
Mar-59
Apr-59
May-59
Jun-59
Jul-59
Aug-59
Sep-59
Oct-59
Nov-59
Dec-59
Jan-60
Feb-60
Mar-60
Apr-60
May-60
Jun-60
Jul-60
Aug-60
Sep-60
Oct-60
Nov-60
Dec-60

318
362
348
363
435
491
505
404
359
310
337
360
342
406
396
420
472
548
559
463
407
362
405
417
391
419
461
472
535
622
606
508
461
390
432

376.3333333
379.5
379.5
380.5
380.9166667
381
382.6666667
384.6666667
388.3333333
392.3333333
397.0833333
400.1666667
404.9166667
409.4166667
414.3333333
418.3333333
422.6666667
428.3333333
433.0833333
437.1666667
438.25
443.6666667
448
453.25
459.4166667
463.3333333
467.0833333
471.5833333
473.9166667
476.1666667

379.5
379.5
380.5
380.9166667
381
382.6666667
384.6666667
388.3333333
392.3333333
397.0833333
400.1666667
404.9166667
409.4166667
414.3333333
418.3333333
422.6666667
428.3333333
433.0833333
437.1666667
438.25
443.6666667
448
453.25
459.4166667
463.3333333
467.0833333
471.5833333
473.9166667
476.1666667

377.9167
379.5
380
380.7083
380.9583
381.8333
383.6667
386.5
390.3333
394.7083
398.625
402.5417
407.1667
411.875
416.3333
420.5
425.5
430.7083
435.125
437.7083
440.9583
445.8333
450.625
456.3333
461.375
465.2083
469.3333
472.75
475.0417

377.9167
379.5
380
380.7083
380.9583
381.8333
383.6667
386.5
390.3333
394.7083
398.625
402.5417
407.1667
411.875
416.3333
420.5
425.5
430.7083
435.125
437.7083
440.9583
445.8333
450.625
456.3333
461.375
465.2083
469.3333
472.75
475.0417
453.25
459.4167
463.3333
467.0833
471.5833
473.9167

0.84145535
0.95388669
0.91578947
0.95348583
1.14185716
1.28590135
1.31624674
1.04527814
0.91972673
0.78539006
0.84540608
0.89431736
0.83995088
0.98573596
0.95116093
0.99881094
1.1092832
1.27232272
1.28468831
1.05778201
0.9229897
0.81196262
0.89875173
0.9138057
0.84746681
0.90067174
0.98224432
0.99841354
1.126217
1.37231109
1.31906403
1.09640288
0.98697591
0.82700124
0.91155266

0.842958
0.946765
0.949732
0.98357
1.125786
1.310178
1.306666
1.066488
0.943231
0.808118
0.885237
0.904062
0.843709
0.943204
0.966703
0.998612
1.11775
1.322317
1.301876
1.077092
0.954983
0.819482
0.905152
0.913806
0.847467
0.900672
0.982244
0.998414
1.126217
1.372311
1.319064
1.096403
0.986976
0.827001
0.911553

Passengers
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan-60

Jan-59

Jan-58

Jan-57

Jan-56

Jan-55

Jan-54

Jan-53

Jan-52

Jan-51

Jan-50

Jan-49

Passengers

Detrend
1.5
1
Detrend

0.5

1
10
19
28
37
46
55
64
73
82
91
100
109
118
127
136

Seasonal
1.5
1
Seasonal

0.5

1
10
19
28
37
46
55
64
73
82
91
100
109
118
127
136

irregular
1.2
1
0.8
0.6

irregular

0.4
0.2
0
1
10
19
28
37
46
55
64
73
82
91
100
109
118
127
136

irregular
0.975315
1.049326
1.026398
1.029103
0.962021
0.945555
0.943844
0.948511
1.001014
0.99975
1.005196
1.012255
0.964304
1.073361
1.039281
1.01584
0.928541
0.966746
0.97052
0.963867
1.021369
0.968029
0.938394
1.008355
1.012024
1.073776
1.098097
1.021081
1.045967
0.944575
0.932099
0.927233
0.98988
0.98647
1.016661
1.027533
1.025409
1.113127
1.030501
0.975098
0.963042
0.992707
0.924584
0.97202
0.974536
0.99568
1.015308
1.01707
1.000387
1.047758
1.082408
1.083032
1.036302
0.96348

1
10
19
28
37
46
55
64
73
82
91
100
109
118
127
136

0
0.924014
0.965103
0.990186
1.009604
0.997972
0.999056
0.985711
0.95939
1.037439
1.008935
1.012309
0.98419
0.979723
0.955482
0.983495
0.9847
0.996262
0.998282
1.015808
1.020674
1.01604
1.017739
0.990259
0.987594
0.990515
0.94709
0.995831
0.989662
0.978965
1.019836
1.01021
1.033412
1.029778
1.016518
0.999027
1.008299
0.972664
0.953726
0.992644
0.971031
0.985283
1.000511
0.999829
1.008635
1.038082
1.010433
0.992636
1.015611
0.970181
0.971835
1.013335
0.990845
1.009367
1.011865
1.001475

0.998218
1.007522
0.964261
0.969413
1.014276
0.98147
1.007332
0.980113
0.975081
0.971875
0.955006
0.989222
0.995546
1.045093
0.983923
1.000199
0.992425
0.962192
0.986798
0.982072
0.966499
0.990824
0.992929
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

TEST DATA

TRAINING DATA

Month

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

143
152
161
139
137
174
142
141
162
180
164
171
206
193
207
218
229
225
204
227
223
242
239
266

alpha
0.731521
143
143
149.5837
157.935
144.0836
138.9018
164.5769
148.0614
142.8958
156.8709
173.7903
166.6285
169.8263
196.2881
193.8828
203.4783
214.1012
225
225
209.6381
222.3387
222.8225
236.8512
238.4231
258.5962
69.42757
18.63982
5.004395
1.343574
0.360721

alpha
RMS

534.9534
95.85076
19.11003
1308.533
10.81189
172.061
210.8795
221.9732
7.31E-13
441
301.4372
0.437335
367.7784
4.617183
760.4853

MAPE

0.128495
0.059697
0.025564
0.1756
0.017037
0.063368
0.066613
0.06506
3.8E-09
0.102941
0.076484
0.002966
0.079246
0.008991
0.103673

0.9
143
151.1
160.01
141.101
137.4101
170.341
144.8341
141.3834
159.9383
177.9938
165.3994
170.4399
202.444
193.9444
205.6944
216.7694
227.7769
225.2777
206.1278
224.9128
223.1913
240.1191
239.1119

300
250
200
150
100
50
0

300

250
200
150
100

17.22388 0.065049
0.065

50

Demand
300
250
200
Demand

150

Linear (Demand)

100
50
0
1

11 13 15 17 19 21 23

300

250
200
150

Series1

100
50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

sequence Month
PassengersResiduals MAE
MSE
MAPE
1
Jan-49
112 21.69004 21.69004 470.4578 19.36611
2
Feb-49
118 25.03285 25.03285 626.6438 21.21428
3
Mar-49
132 36.37567 36.37567 1323.189 27.55733
4
Apr-49
129 30.71849 30.71849 943.6254 23.81278
5
May-49
121 20.0613 20.0613 402.4559 16.57959
6
Jun-49
135 31.40412 31.40412 986.2187 23.26231
7
Jul-49
148 41.74693 41.74693 1742.807 28.20739
8
Aug-49
148 39.08975 39.08975 1528.009 26.41199
9
Sep-49
136 24.43257 24.43257 596.9503 17.96512
10
Oct-49
119 4.775383 4.775383 22.80428 4.012927
11
Nov-49
104 -12.8818 12.8818 165.9408 12.38635
12
Dec-49
118 -1.53898 1.538985 2.368474 1.304224
13
Jan-50
115 -7.19617 7.196169 51.78484 6.257538
14
Feb-50
126 1.146648 1.146648 1.314801 0.910038
15
Mar-50
141 13.48946 13.48946 181.9656 9.566995
16
Apr-50
135 4.83228 4.83228 23.35093 3.579466
17
May-50
125
-7.8249 7.824904 61.22913 6.259923
18
Jun-50
149 13.51791 13.51791 182.7339 9.072424
19
Jul-50
170 31.86073 31.86073 1015.106 18.7416
20
Aug-50
170 29.20354 29.20354 852.847 17.17856
21
Sep-50
158 14.54636 14.54636 211.5966 9.206557
22
Oct-50
133 -13.1108 13.11082 171.8937 9.857762
23
Nov-50
114
-34.768 34.76801 1208.814 30.49825
24
Dec-50
140 -11.4252 11.42519 130.535 8.160851
25
Jan-51
145 -9.08238 9.082375 82.48954 6.263707
26
Feb-51
150 -6.73956 6.739559 45.42166 4.49304
27
Mar-51
178 18.60326 18.60326 346.0812 10.45127
28
Apr-51
163 0.946073 0.946073 0.895054 0.580413
29
May-51
172 7.288889 7.288889 53.1279 4.237726
30
Jun-51
178 10.6317 10.6317 113.0332 5.972868
31
Jul-51
199 28.97452 28.97452 839.5229 14.56006
32
Aug-51
199 26.31734 26.31734 692.6022 13.22479
33
Sep-51
184 8.660153 8.660153 74.99825 4.706605
34
Oct-51
162
-15.997 15.99703 255.905 9.87471
35
Nov-51
146 -34.6542 34.65421 1200.915 23.73576
36
Dec-51
166 -17.3114 17.3114 299.6845 10.42855
37
Jan-52
171 -14.9686 14.96858 224.0585 8.753557
38
Feb-52
180 -8.62577 8.625766 74.40384 4.792092
39
Mar-52
193 1.71705 1.71705 2.94826 0.889663
40
Apr-52
181 -12.9401 12.94013 167.4471 7.149245
41
May-52
183 -13.5973 13.59732 184.8871 7.430228
42
Jun-52
218 18.7455 18.7455 351.3937 8.598852
43
Jul-52
230 28.08831 28.08831 788.9534 12.21231
44
Aug-52
242 37.43113 37.43113 1401.09 15.46741
45
Sep-52
209 1.773946 1.773946 3.146886 0.848778
46
Oct-52
191 -18.8832 18.88324 356.5767 9.886512
47
Nov-52
172 -40.5404 40.54042 1643.526 23.57001
48
Dec-52
194 -21.1976 21.19761 449.3385 10.9266
49
Jan-53
196 -21.8548 21.85479 477.6318 11.1504
50
Feb-53
196
-24.512 24.51197 600.8368 12.50611
51
Mar-53
236 12.83084 12.83084 164.6305 5.436798
52
Apr-53
235 9.173659 9.173659 84.15602 3.903685
53
May-53
229 0.516475 0.516475 0.266747 0.225535
54
Jun-53
243 11.85929 11.85929 140.6428 4.880367
55
Jul-53
264 30.20211 30.20211 912.1673 11.44019
56
Aug-53
272 35.54492 35.54492 1263.442 13.06799
57
Sep-53
237 -2.11226 2.112261 4.461645 0.891249

58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116

Oct-53
Nov-53
Dec-53
Jan-54
Feb-54
Mar-54
Apr-54
May-54
Jun-54
Jul-54
Aug-54
Sep-54
Oct-54
Nov-54
Dec-54
Jan-55
Feb-55
Mar-55
Apr-55
May-55
Jun-55
Jul-55
Aug-55
Sep-55
Oct-55
Nov-55
Dec-55
Jan-56
Feb-56
Mar-56
Apr-56
May-56
Jun-56
Jul-56
Aug-56
Sep-56
Oct-56
Nov-56
Dec-56
Jan-57
Feb-57
Mar-57
Apr-57
May-57
Jun-57
Jul-57
Aug-57
Sep-57
Oct-57
Nov-57
Dec-57
Jan-58
Feb-58
Mar-58
Apr-58
May-58
Jun-58
Jul-58
Aug-58

211
180
201
204
188
235
227
234
264
302
293
259
229
203
229
242
233
267
269
270
315
364
347
312
274
237
278
284
277
317
313
318
374
413
405
355
306
271
306
315
301
356
348
355
422
465
467
404
347
305
336
340
318
362
348
363
435
491
505

-30.7694
-64.4266
-46.0838
-45.741
-64.3982
-20.0554
-30.7125
-26.3697
0.973084
36.3159
24.65872
-11.9985
-44.6557
-73.3128
-49.97
-39.6272
-51.2844
-19.9416
-20.5988
-22.2559
20.08688
66.42969
46.77251
9.115326
-31.5419
-71.199
-32.8562
-29.5134
-39.1706
-1.82778
-8.48496
-6.14215
47.20067
83.54349
72.8863
20.22912
-31.4281
-69.0852
-36.7424
-30.3996
-47.0568
5.286015
-5.37117
-1.02835
63.31446
103.6573
103.0001
37.34291
-22.3143
-66.9715
-38.6286
-37.2858
-61.943
-20.6002
-37.2574
-24.9146
44.42826
97.77107
109.1139

30.76944
64.42663
46.08381
45.741
64.39818
20.05536
30.71255
26.36973
0.973084
36.3159
24.65872
11.99847
44.65565
73.31284
49.97002
39.6272
51.28439
19.94157
20.59875
22.25594
20.08688
66.42969
46.77251
9.115326
31.54186
71.19904
32.85623
29.51341
39.17059
1.827778
8.484962
6.142146
47.20067
83.54349
72.8863
20.22912
31.42807
69.08525
36.74243
30.39962
47.0568
5.286015
5.371169
1.028352
63.31446
103.6573
103.0001
37.34291
22.31427
66.97146
38.62864
37.28582
61.94301
20.60019
37.25738
24.91456
44.42826
97.77107
109.1139

946.7587
4150.79
2123.718
2092.239
4147.126
402.2176
943.2606
695.3628
0.946893
1318.845
608.0523
143.9632
1994.127
5374.772
2497.003
1570.315
2630.088
397.6662
424.3087
495.3268
403.4826
4412.904
2187.668
83.08916
994.8888
5069.304
1079.532
871.0414
1534.335
3.340772
71.99457
37.72595
2227.903
6979.514
5312.413
409.2172
987.7233
4772.772
1350.006
924.1367
2214.342
27.94196
28.84945
1.057509
4008.721
10744.83
10609.02
1394.493
497.9267
4485.176
1492.172
1390.233
3836.936
424.3679
1388.112
620.7353
1973.87
9559.183
11905.84

14.58268
35.79257
22.92727
22.42206
34.25435
8.534197
13.52976
11.26912
0.368593
12.02513
8.415944
4.632613
19.50028
36.1147
21.82097
16.37488
22.01047
7.468753
7.65753
8.24294
6.376786
18.24992
13.47911
2.921579
11.51163
30.04179
11.81879
10.39205
14.14101
0.576586
2.71085
1.931492
12.6205
20.22845
17.99662
5.698343
10.27061
25.49271
12.00733
9.650672
15.63349
1.484836
1.543439
0.289677
15.00343
22.29189
22.0557
9.243295
6.430626
21.95785
11.49662
10.96642
19.47893
5.690661
10.70614
6.863515
10.21339
19.91264
21.60671

117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150

Sep-58
Oct-58
Nov-58
Dec-58
Jan-59
Feb-59
Mar-59
Apr-59
May-59
Jun-59
Jul-59
Aug-59
Sep-59
Oct-59
Nov-59
Dec-59
Jan-60
Feb-60
Mar-60
Apr-60
May-60
Jun-60
Jul-60
Aug-60
Sep-60
Oct-60
Nov-60
Dec-60
Jan-61
Feb-61
Mar-61
Apr-61
May-61
Jun-61

404
359
310
337
360
342
406
396
420
472
548
559
463
407
362
405
417
391
419
461
472
535
622
606
508
461
390
432
472.9444
475.6016
478.2588
480.916
483.5732
486.2304

5.456705
-42.2005
-93.8577
-69.5148
-49.172
-69.8292
-8.4864
-21.1436
0.199234
49.54205
122.8849
131.2277
32.5705
-26.0867
-73.7439
-33.4011
-24.0582
-52.7154
-27.3726
11.97021
20.31303
80.65584
164.9987
146.3415
45.68429
-3.97289
-77.6301
-38.2873

5.456705
42.20048
93.85766
69.51485
49.17203
69.82921
8.486398
21.14358
0.199234
49.54205
122.8849
131.2277
32.5705
26.08669
73.74387
33.40105
24.05824
52.71542
27.37261
11.97021
20.31303
80.65584
164.9987
146.3415
45.68429
3.972893
77.63008
38.28726
34.40555
RMS

29.77563
1780.88
8809.261
4832.314
2417.889
4876.119
72.01896
447.0511
0.039694
2454.415
15100.69
17220.7
1060.837
680.5152
5438.158
1115.63
578.7988
2778.916
749.2595
143.2859
412.6191
6505.365
27224.56
21415.83
2087.054
15.78388
6026.429
1465.914
2091.799
45.73619

1.35067
11.75501
30.27667
20.62755
13.6589
20.4179
2.090246
5.339288
0.047437
10.4962
22.42425
23.47544
7.034665
6.409505
20.37123
8.247174
5.769362
13.4822
6.532841
2.596575
4.303607
15.07586
26.52712
24.14876
8.992971
0.861799
19.90515
8.862792
12.31902

137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.923925
R Square
0.853638
Adjusted R Square
0.852607
Standard Error 46.05715
Observations
144
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
sequence

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 1756825 1756825 828.1983 4.02E-61
142 301219.1 2121.261
143 2058044

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
87.65278 7.716347 11.35936 1.12E-21 72.39902 102.9065 72.39902
2.657184 0.092332 28.77843 4.02E-61 2.47466 2.839708 2.47466

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted Passengers
Residuals
Standard Residuals
1 90.30996 21.69004 0.472593
2 92.96715 25.03285 0.545428
3 95.62433 36.37567 0.79257
4 98.28151 30.71849 0.669309
5 100.9387 20.0613 0.437105
6 103.5959 31.40412 0.684248
7 106.2531 41.74693 0.909602
8 108.9102 39.08975 0.851706
9 111.5674 24.43257 0.532348
10 114.2246 4.775383 0.104048
11 116.8818 -12.8818 -0.28067
12 119.539 -1.53898 -0.03353
13 122.1962 -7.19617 -0.15679
14 124.8534 1.146648 0.024984
15 127.5105 13.48946 0.293915
16 130.1677 4.83228 0.105288
17 132.8249
-7.8249 -0.17049
18 135.4821 13.51791 0.294535
19 138.1393 31.86073 0.694197
20 140.7965 29.20354 0.636301
21 143.4536 14.54636 0.316943
22 146.1108 -13.1108 -0.28566
23 148.768
-34.768 -0.75754
24 151.4252 -11.4252 -0.24894
25 154.0824 -9.08238 -0.19789
26 156.7396 -6.73956 -0.14684
27 159.3967 18.60326 0.405337
28 162.0539 0.946073 0.020613
29 164.7111 7.288889 0.158814
30 167.3683 10.6317 0.231649
31 170.0255 28.97452 0.631311
32 172.6827 26.31734 0.573415
33 175.3398 8.660153 0.188691
34 177.997
-15.997 -0.34855

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93

180.6542
183.3114
185.9686
188.6258
191.283
193.9401
196.5973
199.2545
201.9117
204.5689
207.2261
209.8832
212.5404
215.1976
217.8548
220.512
223.1692
225.8263
228.4835
231.1407
233.7979
236.4551
239.1123
241.7694
244.4266
247.0838
249.741
252.3982
255.0554
257.7125
260.3697
263.0269
265.6841
268.3413
270.9985
273.6557
276.3128
278.97
281.6272
284.2844
286.9416
289.5988
292.2559
294.9131
297.5703
300.2275
302.8847
305.5419
308.199
310.8562
313.5134
316.1706
318.8278
321.485
324.1421
326.7993
329.4565
332.1137
334.7709

-34.6542
-17.3114
-14.9686
-8.62577
1.71705
-12.9401
-13.5973
18.7455
28.08831
37.43113
1.773946
-18.8832
-40.5404
-21.1976
-21.8548
-24.512
12.83084
9.173659
0.516475
11.85929
30.20211
35.54492
-2.11226
-30.7694
-64.4266
-46.0838
-45.741
-64.3982
-20.0554
-30.7125
-26.3697
0.973084
36.3159
24.65872
-11.9985
-44.6557
-73.3128
-49.97
-39.6272
-51.2844
-19.9416
-20.5988
-22.2559
20.08688
66.42969
46.77251
9.115326
-31.5419
-71.199
-32.8562
-29.5134
-39.1706
-1.82778
-8.48496
-6.14215
47.20067
83.54349
72.8863
20.22912

-0.75506
-0.37719
-0.32614
-0.18794
0.037412
-0.28195
-0.29626
0.408436
0.612001
0.815567
0.038652
-0.41144
-0.88331
-0.46186
-0.47618
-0.53408
0.279564
0.19988
0.011253
0.258396
0.658058
0.77447
-0.04602
-0.67042
-1.40376
-1.0041
-0.99663
-1.40314
-0.43698
-0.66918
-0.57456
0.021202
0.791268
0.537276
-0.26143
-0.97298
-1.59737
-1.08877
-0.86342
-1.11741
-0.4345
-0.44882
-0.48492
0.437662
1.447401
1.019101
0.198609
-0.68725
-1.55132
-0.71589
-0.64305
-0.85347
-0.03982
-0.18487
-0.13383
1.02843
1.820285
1.588081
0.440762

94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144

337.4281
340.0852
342.7424
345.3996
348.0568
350.714
353.3712
356.0284
358.6855
361.3427
363.9999
366.6571
369.3143
371.9715
374.6286
377.2858
379.943
382.6002
385.2574
387.9146
390.5717
393.2289
395.8861
398.5433
401.2005
403.8577
406.5148
409.172
411.8292
414.4864
417.1436
419.8008
422.458
425.1151
427.7723
430.4295
433.0867
435.7439
438.4011
441.0582
443.7154
446.3726
449.0298
451.687
454.3442
457.0013
459.6585
462.3157
464.9729
467.6301
470.2873

-31.4281
-69.0852
-36.7424
-30.3996
-47.0568
5.286015
-5.37117
-1.02835
63.31446
103.6573
103.0001
37.34291
-22.3143
-66.9715
-38.6286
-37.2858
-61.943
-20.6002
-37.2574
-24.9146
44.42826
97.77107
109.1139
5.456705
-42.2005
-93.8577
-69.5148
-49.172
-69.8292
-8.4864
-21.1436
0.199234
49.54205
122.8849
131.2277
32.5705
-26.0867
-73.7439
-33.4011
-24.0582
-52.7154
-27.3726
11.97021
20.31303
80.65584
164.9987
146.3415
45.68429
-3.97289
-77.6301
-38.2873

-0.68477
-1.50526
-0.80056
-0.66236
-1.0253
0.115174
-0.11703
-0.02241
1.379525
2.258534
2.244215
0.813645
-0.48619
-1.45921
-0.84166
-0.8124
-1.34964
-0.44885
-0.81178
-0.54285
0.968024
2.130282
2.377425
0.118893
-0.91948
-2.04501
-1.51462
-1.07138
-1.52147
-0.18491
-0.46069
0.004341
1.079446
2.677473
2.859251
0.709661
-0.56839
-1.60677
-0.72776
-0.52419
-1.14859
-0.59641
0.260813
0.44259
1.757367
3.595068
3.188557
0.995391
-0.08656
-1.69144
-0.83422

sequence Residual Plot

Residuals

200
0
0

50

-200

100

150

200

sequence

1000
500
Passengers

0
1
16
31
46
61
76
91
106
121
136

Upper 95.0%
102.9065
2.839708

Passengers

sequence Line Fit Plot

sequence

Predicted Passengers

Month
PassengersMA 12 (JAN) MA 12 (FEB) Average Full data Detrend
seasonality
Jan-49
112
126.6667 0.884211 0.9065899
Feb-49
118
126.9167 0.929744 0.8860394
Mar-49
132
127.5833 1.034618
1.008008
Apr-49
129
128.3333 1.005195 0.9767684
May-49
121
128.8333 0.939198 0.9759258
Jun-49
135
129.1667 1.045161 1.1044693
Jul-49
148 126.6666667 126.9166667 126.7917 126.7917 1.167269 1.2367181
Aug-49
148 126.9166667 127.5833333
127.25
127.25 1.163065 1.2262007
Sep-49
136 127.5833333 128.3333333 127.9583 127.9583 1.062846 1.0617694
Oct-49
119 128.3333333 128.8333333 128.5833 128.5833 0.92547 0.9257014
Nov-49
104 128.8333333 129.1666667
129
129 0.806202 0.8020343
Dec-49
118 129.1666667 130.3333333
129.75
129.75 0.909441 0.8984314
Jan-50
115 130.3333333 132.1666667
131.25
131.25 0.87619 0.9086244
Feb-50
126 132.1666667
134 133.0833 133.0833 0.946775 0.8820663
Mar-50
141
134 135.8333333 134.9167 134.9167 1.04509 1.0055889
Apr-50
135 135.8333333
137 136.4167 136.4167 0.989615 0.9741842
May-50
125
137 137.8333333 137.4167 137.4167 0.909642 0.9792647
Jun-50
149 137.8333333 139.6666667
138.75
138.75 1.073874 1.1098609
Jul-50
170 139.6666667 142.1666667 140.9167 140.9167 1.206387 1.2430317
Aug-50
170 142.1666667 144.1666667 143.1667 143.1667 1.187427 1.2319404
Sep-50
158 144.1666667
147.25 145.7083 145.7083 1.084358 1.0616715
Oct-50
133
147.25 149.5833333 148.4167 148.4167 0.896126 0.9257224
Nov-50
114 149.5833333
153.5 151.5417 151.5417 0.752268 0.8016554
Dec-50
140
153.5 155.9166667 154.7083 154.7083 0.904929 0.8974305
Jan-51
145 155.9166667 158.3333333 157.125 157.125 0.922832 0.9118678
Feb-51
150 158.3333333
160.75 159.5417 159.5417 0.940193 0.8755954
Mar-51
178
160.75 162.9166667 161.8333 161.8333 1.099897 1.0016389
Apr-51
163 162.9166667 165.3333333 164.125 164.125 0.993145 0.9726411
May-51
172 165.3333333
168 166.6667 166.6667
1.032
0.986227
Jun-51
178
168 170.1666667 169.0833 169.0833 1.052735 1.1134596
Jul-51
199 170.1666667 172.3333333
171.25
171.25 1.162044 1.2466961
Aug-51
199 172.3333333 174.8333333 173.5833 173.5833 1.146423 1.2363917
Sep-51
184 174.8333333 176.0833333 175.4583 175.4583 1.048682 1.0594028
Oct-51
162 176.0833333 177.5833333 176.8333 176.8333 0.916117 0.9286821
Nov-51
146 177.5833333
178.5 178.0417 178.0417 0.820033 0.8065941
Dec-51
166
178.5 181.8333333 180.1667 180.1667 0.921369 0.8966807
Jan-52
171 181.8333333 184.4166667 183.125 183.125 0.933788 0.9106495
Feb-52
180 184.4166667
188 186.2083 186.2083 0.966659 0.8684179
Mar-52
193
188 190.0833333 189.0417 189.0417 1.020939 0.9907213
Apr-52
181 190.0833333
192.5 191.2917 191.2917 0.946199 0.9703628
May-52
183
192.5 194.6666667 193.5833 193.5833 0.945329 0.9811411
Jun-52
218 194.6666667
197 195.8333 195.8333 1.113191 1.1202067
Jul-52
230
197 199.0833333 198.0417 198.0417 1.161372
1.256102
Aug-52
242 199.0833333 200.4166667
199.75
199.75 1.211514 1.2463882
Sep-52
209 200.4166667
204 202.2083 202.2083 1.033587
1.060594
Oct-52
191
204
208.5
206.25
206.25 0.926061 0.9300782
Nov-52
172
208.5 212.3333333 210.4167 210.4167 0.817426 0.8051009
Dec-52
194 212.3333333 214.4166667 213.375 213.375 0.909197 0.8939375
Jan-53
196 214.4166667
217.25 215.8333 215.8333 0.908108 0.9077572
Feb-53
196
217.25
219.75
218.5
218.5 0.897025 0.8561377
Mar-53
236
219.75 222.0833333 220.9167 220.9167 1.068276 0.9869441
Apr-53
235 222.0833333
223.75 222.9167 222.9167 1.054206 0.9733833
May-53
229
223.75 224.4166667 224.0833 224.0833 1.021941 0.9856175
Jun-53
243 224.4166667
225 224.7083 224.7083 1.081402 1.1210836

irregular
0.975315
1.049326
1.026398
1.029103
0.962366
0.946302
0.943844
0.948511
1.001014
0.99975
1.005196
1.012255
0.964304
1.073361
1.039281
1.01584
0.928903
0.967575
0.97052
0.963867
1.021369
0.968029
0.938394
1.008355
1.012024
1.073776
1.098097
1.021081
1.046412
0.945463
0.932099
0.927233
0.98988
0.98647
1.016661
1.027533
1.025409
1.113127
1.030501
0.975098
0.9635
0.993738
0.924584
0.97202
0.974536
0.99568
1.015308
1.01707
1.000387
1.047758
1.082408
1.083032
1.036854
0.964604

Jul-53
Aug-53
Sep-53
Oct-53
Nov-53
Dec-53
Jan-54
Feb-54
Mar-54
Apr-54
May-54
Jun-54
Jul-54
Aug-54
Sep-54
Oct-54
Nov-54
Dec-54
Jan-55
Feb-55
Mar-55
Apr-55
May-55
Jun-55
Jul-55
Aug-55
Sep-55
Oct-55
Nov-55
Dec-55
Jan-56
Feb-56
Mar-56
Apr-56
May-56
Jun-56
Jul-56
Aug-56
Sep-56
Oct-56
Nov-56
Dec-56
Jan-57
Feb-57
Mar-57
Apr-57
May-57
Jun-57
Jul-57
Aug-57
Sep-57
Oct-57
Nov-57
Dec-57
Jan-58

264
272
237
211
180
201
204
188
235
227
234
264
302
293
259
229
203
229
242
233
267
269
270
315
364
347
312
274
237
278
284
277
317
313
318
374
413
405
355
306
271
306
315
301
356
348
355
422
465
467
404
347
305
336
340

225
225.6666667
225
224.9166667
224.25
224.6666667
226.4166667
229.5833333
231.3333333
233.1666667
234.6666667
236.5833333
238.9166667
242.0833333
245.8333333
248.5
252
255
259.25
264.4166667
268.9166667
273.3333333
277.0833333
279.9166667
284
287.5
291.1666667
295.3333333
299
303
307.9166667
312
316.8333333
320.4166667
323.0833333
325.9166667
328.25
330.8333333
332.8333333
336.0833333
339
342.0833333
346.0833333
350.4166667
355.5833333
359.6666667
363.0833333
365.9166667
368.4166667
370.5
371.9166667
372.4166667
372.4166667
373.0833333
374.1666667

225.6666667
225
224.9166667
224.25
224.6666667
226.4166667
229.5833333
231.3333333
233.1666667
234.6666667
236.5833333
238.9166667
242.0833333
245.8333333
248.5
252
255
259.25
264.4166667
268.9166667
273.3333333
277.0833333
279.9166667
284
287.5
291.1666667
295.3333333
299
303
307.9166667
312
316.8333333
320.4166667
323.0833333
325.9166667
328.25
330.8333333
332.8333333
336.0833333
339
342.0833333
346.0833333
350.4166667
355.5833333
359.6666667
363.0833333
365.9166667
368.4166667
370.5
371.9166667
372.4166667
372.4166667
373.0833333
374.1666667
376.3333333

225.3333
225.3333
224.9583
224.5833
224.4583
225.5417
228
230.4583
232.25
233.9167
235.625
237.75
240.5
243.9583
247.1667
250.25
253.5
257.125
261.8333
266.6667
271.125
275.2083
278.5
281.9583
285.75
289.3333
293.25
297.1667
301
305.4583
309.9583
314.4167
318.625
321.75
324.5
327.0833
329.5417
331.8333
334.4583
337.5417
340.5417
344.0833
348.25
353
357.625
361.375
364.5
367.1667
369.4583
371.2083
372.1667
372.4167
372.75
373.625
375.25

225.3333
225.3333
224.9583
224.5833
224.4583
225.5417
228
230.4583
232.25
233.9167
235.625
237.75
240.5
243.9583
247.1667
250.25
253.5
257.125
261.8333
266.6667
271.125
275.2083
278.5
281.9583
285.75
289.3333
293.25
297.1667
301
305.4583
309.9583
314.4167
318.625
321.75
324.5
327.0833
329.5417
331.8333
334.4583
337.5417
340.5417
344.0833
348.25
353
357.625
361.375
364.5
367.1667
369.4583
371.2083
372.1667
372.4167
372.75
373.625
375.25

1.171598
1.207101
1.053528
0.939518
0.801931
0.891188
0.894737
0.815766
1.011841
0.970431
0.993103
1.11041
1.255717
1.201025
1.047876
0.915085
0.800789
0.890617
0.924252
0.87375
0.984786
0.977441
0.969479
1.117186
1.273841
1.199309
1.063939
0.922042
0.787375
0.910108
0.916252
0.880997
0.9949
0.972805
0.979969
1.143439
1.253256
1.220492
1.061418
0.906555
0.795791
0.889319
0.904523
0.852691
0.995456
0.962989
0.973937
1.149342
1.258599
1.258054
1.085535
0.931752
0.818243
0.899297
0.906063

1.2679432
1.2507474
1.0639699
0.9305804
0.8035603
0.89203
0.9077071
0.8502966
0.9753253
0.9618372
0.9804284
1.1267525
1.2817069
1.2569826
1.0654615
0.9293037
0.8037932
0.8921504
0.9098688
0.8560518
0.9692394
0.9604049
0.9783159
1.1294762
1.2860385
1.266309
1.0683924
0.9316734
0.8042939
0.8924059
0.9069921
0.8525122
0.9661301
0.9569977
0.9800832
1.1319342
1.288478
1.279709
1.0692832
0.9335998
0.8076775
0.8888655
0.9046771
0.8453911
0.9589376
0.9530458
0.9801117
1.1290579
1.2972836
1.2945132
1.0712495
0.9403611
0.8106492
0.888752
0.9047286

0.924014
0.965103
0.990186
1.009604
0.997972
0.999056
0.985711
0.95939
1.037439
1.008935
1.012928
0.985496
0.979723
0.955482
0.983495
0.9847
0.996262
0.998282
1.015808
1.020674
1.01604
1.017739
0.990968
0.989119
0.990515
0.94709
0.995831
0.989662
0.978965
1.019836
1.01021
1.033412
1.029778
1.016518
0.999884
1.010164
0.972664
0.953726
0.992644
0.971031
0.985283
1.000511
0.999829
1.008635
1.038082
1.010433
0.9937
1.017965
0.970181
0.971835
1.013335
0.990845
1.009367
1.011865
1.001475

Feb-58
Mar-58
Apr-58
May-58
Jun-58
Jul-58
Aug-58
Sep-58
Oct-58
Nov-58
Dec-58
Jan-59
Feb-59
Mar-59
Apr-59
May-59
Jun-59
Jul-59
Aug-59
Sep-59
Oct-59
Nov-59
Dec-59
Jan-60
Feb-60
Mar-60
Apr-60
May-60
Jun-60
Jul-60
Aug-60
Sep-60
Oct-60
Nov-60
Dec-60

318
362
348
363
435
491
505
404
359
310
337
360
342
406
396
420
472
548
559
463
407
362
405
417
391
419
461
472
535
622
606
508
461
390
432

376.3333333
379.5
379.5
380.5
380.9166667
381
382.6666667
384.6666667
388.3333333
392.3333333
397.0833333
400.1666667
404.9166667
409.4166667
414.3333333
418.3333333
422.6666667
428.3333333
433.0833333
437.1666667
438.25
443.6666667
448
453.25
459.4166667
463.3333333
467.0833333
471.5833333
473.9166667
476.1666667

379.5
379.5
380.5
380.9166667
381
382.6666667
384.6666667
388.3333333
392.3333333
397.0833333
400.1666667
404.9166667
409.4166667
414.3333333
418.3333333
422.6666667
428.3333333
433.0833333
437.1666667
438.25
443.6666667
448
453.25
459.4166667
463.3333333
467.0833333
471.5833333
473.9166667
478.2416667

377.9167
379.5
380
380.7083
380.9583
381.8333
383.6667
386.5
390.3333
394.7083
398.625
402.5417
407.1667
411.875
416.3333
420.5
425.5
430.7083
435.125
437.7083
440.9583
445.8333
450.625
456.3333
461.375
465.2083
469.3333
472.75
476.0792

377.9167
379.5
380
380.7083
380.9583
381.8333
383.6667
386.5
390.3333
394.7083
398.625
402.5417
407.1667
411.875
416.3333
420.5
425.5
430.7083
435.125
437.7083
440.9583
445.8333
450.625
456.3333
461.375
465.2083
469.3333
474.7472
479.4984
453.25
459.4167
463.3333
467.0833
471.5833
473.9167

0.841455
0.953887
0.915789
0.953486
1.141857
1.285901
1.316247
1.045278
0.919727
0.78539
0.845406
0.894317
0.839951
0.985736
0.951161
0.998811
1.109283
1.272323
1.284688
1.057782
0.92299
0.811963
0.898752
0.913806
0.847467
0.900672
0.982244
0.994213
1.115749
1.372311
1.319064
1.096403
0.986976
0.827001
0.911553

0.8429577
0.9467648
0.9497316
0.98217
1.1222965
1.3101784
1.3066664
1.0664877
0.9432308
0.808118
0.8852368
0.9040615
0.8437088
0.9432039
0.9667026
0.9965121
1.1125162
1.3223169
1.3018762
1.0770924
0.9549828
0.8194819
0.9051522
0.9138057
0.8474668
0.9006717
0.9822443
0.9942133
1.1157493
1.3723111
1.319064
1.0964029
0.9869759
0.8270012
0.9115527

0.998218
1.007522
0.964261
0.970795
1.017429
0.98147
1.007332
0.980113
0.975081
0.971875
0.955006
0.989222
0.995546
1.045093
0.983923
1.002307
0.997094
0.962192
0.986798
0.982072
0.966499
0.990824
0.992929
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Detrend
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1

Detrend

1
0.9
0.8
1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
101
111
121
131
141

0.7

seasonality
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8

seasonality

0.6
0.4
0.2
1
8
15
22
29
36
43
50
57
64
71
78
85
92
99
106
113
120
127
134
141

irregular
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

irregular

1
8
15
22
29
36
43
50
57
64
71
78
85
92
99
106
113
120
127
134
141