Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Kinh t v Kinh doanh 25 (2009) 207-216

Khng hong kinh t th gii v bi hc cho Vit Nam

TS. L Hng Nht*
Khoa Kinh t, i hc Quc gia Thnh ph H Ch Minh, Linh Trung, Th c, Thnh ph H Ch Minh, Vit Nam
Nhn ngy 20 thng 10 nm 2009

Tm tt. Khng hong ti chnh mi y M l mt iu t ai ng, c v mc nghim trng ln quy m nh hng ca n ln h thng ti chnh v kinh t ton cu. Bi vit nhm vo vic tm hiu r nguyn nhn dn n cuc khng hong. ng thi, cho php chng ta rt ra nhng bi hc qu bu v chnh sch ti chnh lnh mnh, nhm tn dng c cc c hi pht trin, hi nhp kinh t trong tng lai. Bi vit cp n cc ni dung nh: trc ht, tc gi khi qut ba trng phi chnh v khng hong ti chnh; bi vit cn tng thut li nhng s kin chnh dn n khng hong, k t cui nhim k tng thng ca Clinton; ngoi ra, tc gi cng phn tch din bin dn ti khng hong, thng qua lng knh ca kinh t hc th ch; cui cng, tc gi nu ra mt s bi hc v s cn thit phi xy dng th ch gim st hiu qu cho hat ng ti chnh, v m bo tng trng bn vng. l qu trnh xy dng nhng chun mc, th ch lut l tt, thc y hiu qu v tinh thn trch nhim; ch khng n gin ch l s xa b cc th ch yu km, ang cn tr s sng to v pht trin. Bi hc ny c th p dng cho Vit Nam.

1. Mt s trng phi kinh t v khng hong ti chnh * Khng hong ti chnh c hiu l s sp ca th trng ti chnh, khin cho n khng th thc hin c hai chc nng c bn nht: (1) n nh gi tr ng tin hoc cc ti sn ti chnh nh mt phng tin giao dch, ct tr ti sn, v (2) l trung gian chuyn vn tit kim vo nhng d n u t c hiu qu nht. H qu l nn kinh t b y ra khi qu o tng trng tim nng, gy nn s st gim mnh v sn lng, vic lm, i km vi gim pht, hoc gy nguy c bng n lm pht. C th s b chia ra ba quan im chnh v khng hong ti chnh: Nhm th nht l nhng ngi theo ch thuyt tin t (Monetarists

______
*

T: 84-907077996 E-mail: nhat59nl@yahoo.com

View), dn u l Friedman v Schwartz (1963). H cho rng, khng hong ti chnh l do s hong lon ca h thng ngn hng (banking panics), gy Khng hong ti chnh c nn s co hiu l s sp ca th trng hp cung ti chnh, khin cho n khng th thc hin c hai chc tin t, dn n s suy nng c bn nht: (1) n nh thoi trong gi tr ng tin hoc cc ti sn tng cu tiu ti chnh nh mt phng tin dng v u giao dch, ct tr ti sn, v (2) t. H b l trung gian chuyn vn tit qua nhng kim vo nhng d n u t c nguyn nhn hiu qu nht. thc, nh s st gim hiu qu ca nn kinh t, s suy sp ca nhiu doanh nghip. V vy, theo h, s can thip ca Chnh ph l khng cn thit, v thm ch c hi, bi v nhng doanh nghip ng ra 207

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phi cho b ph sn li c cu vt, gy nn s gia tng qu mc v cung tin t v dn ti lm pht. i lp vi nhm theo ch thuyt tin t l Keynesian View, u l Kindleberger (1978) v Misky (1972). H c quan nim rng hn v khng hong ti chnh v tin t, bao gm s st gim ca hu ht gi tr c phiu, s v n ca nhiu cng ty ti chnh v phi ti chnh, nn gim pht i km vi s ri lon ca th trng ngoi hi. Nhng yu t ny gy nn s st gim mnh v tng cu u t v tiu dng, v th cn phi c s can thip ca Nh nc. iu ng ni l h khng a ra mt c trng r rng v ngun gc ca khng hong, lm tin cho mt chnh sch kch thch c hiu qu. V vy, s can thip ca Chnh ph rt d dn n lm pht v tr tr, nh nhng ngi theo ch thuyt tin t lu . Nhm th ba nhn mnh ti bn cht ri ro ca hot ng ti chnh, dn u l Stiglitz v Weiss (1981). Theo h, hot ng ca h thng ti chnh, c bit l ngn hng, chu ri ro cao, do ngn hng u t hay t chc cho vay thng khng nm r thng tin v kh nng sinh li v mc ri ro ca d n u t bng c nhn hay t chc i vay; tc l nhng ngi ch d n. S khc bit v thng tin (asymmetry of information), hay s thiu minh bch v thng tin cc d n, khin cho h thng ti chnh c th c vn , bi v ngn hng mun p li sut thc, cng cc ph dch v cho vay tng ln b cho ri ro mt vn c th xy ra. Nhng iu ny li khin cho nhng d n c ri ro cao nht mi hy vng c kh nng sinh li cao tr n (nu may mn thnh cng). Ngc li, nu l d n ca nhng doanh nghip va v nh, vi ri ro t (mc sinh li thp hn), th h s kh c th c vay vn. V vy, khi li sut cho vay tng ln th: (i) S c mt t l ln hn nhng ch cc d n vi ri ro cao hn (nh u c vo bt ng sn, chng khon thi bong bng) i sn lng vn vay. Trong khi , nhng doanh nhip

va v nh, vi nhng nh u t cn trng, s b loi ra khi danh sch cc ng c vin. Ngi ta gi y l s chn lm phi iu nguy hi (adverse selection), theo Akerlof (1974). (ii) Vi nhng ch d n ln vay c vn, th h c xu hng lm thay i bn cht d n hay mc ch s dng vn vay, khin cho d n mang tnh u c cao hn (hoc c v quan trng hn, Nh nc khng th cho b tht bi). Do vy, h c th giu ln nhanh chng, nu vic u c thnh cng; v ngn hng chu tch t nhng khon n xu; hay x hi phi gnh vc tn tht qua gnh nng cu tr ngn sch nu d n b tht bi. Ngi ta gi y l him ha do s v trch nhim (moral hazard). Chnh v nhng l do trn y, nhng ngi theo trng phi kinh t hc th ch (institutional economics) cho rng, hot ng ca ngn hng ni ring v h thng ti chnh ni chung, phi c gim st ht sc cn trng, nhm hng cc giao dch ti s an ton (Aoki, 1991; Mc Kinnon, 1991). V d, vi nhng d n c ri ro rt cao (nhng cng c th l nhng c hi u t c tim nng nht v hiu qu, ch khng phi u c), th cn phi c nhng qu u t c bit nhm thm nh, gim st, rt vn ban u, v lp c ch chia s ri ro. Chng hn nh cc qu u t mo him (Vetunture capital funds). Theo Stiglitz-Weiss, do ri ro chn lm v him ha ca s v trch nhim (adverse selection and moral hazard), h thng cc ngn hng kinh doanh hot ng theo hnh thc cho vay ly li phi b hn ch v khng c php tham gia vo cc lnh vc u t c ri ro qu cao ny. Ngoi s phn loi chc nng cc ngn hng thng mi, ngn hng u t v cc qu u t theo mc ri ro ca tng lnh vc u t, cn phi c nhiu t chc trung gian khc lm chc nng gim st v cnh bo ri ro. Chng hn nh cc t chc xp hng (rating companies), m chng thng xuyn theo di s thay i trng thi ti chnh ca cc cng ty

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ti chnh v phi ti chnh. S xp hng ny nh hng trc tip n kh nng ca cc cng ty trong vic gy qu t th trng vn hay th trng chng khon. Nhn chung, cho d thuc trng phi kinh t no, th vn c mt s nht tr rng, h thng ti chnh cn phi c gim st cht ch, do tnh phc tp v ri ro ca hot ng ny. V vic thiu s qun l, gim st (unregulated finance) lun dn n bong bng u c (speculative bubbles). Tuy nhin, ch khi vic mt cn i v m tr nn rt nghim trng, th bong bng u c mi c th dn n khng hong ti chnh v kinh t trn quy m ln. Nhng nh ot gii thng Nobel kinh t pht biu quan im ny bao gm: Paul Krugman, Edmund S. Phelps, Reinhard Selten, v Josep Stiglitz. H nhn mnh rng, khng hong c th trnh c nu c mt h thng gim st ti chnh v cnh bo ri ro tt. V vy, h cho rng, khng phi c t nhin m phi c s can thip ca Chnh ph thng qua cc gi kch thch, nu nh khng hiu r khim khuyt g trong th ch ti chnh y n khng hong. Vy cu hi c t ra l, ti sao mt th ch gim st ti chnh, c coi l chun mc nht th gii, lm nn tng cho s pht trin vng mnh v giu c ca ngnh ngn hng v ti chnh M trong sut nhiu thp k (k t cc nm 1930), li sp nhanh chng nh vy? Chng ta hy xem xt li mt nguyn nhn c bn ca cuc khng hong ny qua lng knh ca trng phi kinh t hc th ch va tm tt trn. Nhng c ci nhn bao qut, hy im li mt vi s kin ng ch vo thi k cn khng hong. 2. Cc giai on trc khng hong ti chnh ca M Giai on 1: Di thi ca cu tng thng Bill Clinton (1992 - 2000). y c coi l thi k hong kim ca M, vi tin b cng ngh v hiu qu kinh t cao, thng d ngn sch, v t l n nc ngoi thp. Nhng ngay vo cui

thi k ny xut hin hai s kin ng ch : (i) V bong bng chng khon (dotcom bubble). iu ny lm nh hng n s giu c ca tng lp trung lu ca M, tc l lm gim kh nng th chp cho cc khon vay u t vo nh ca, bt ng sn, v cc hot ng kinh doanh khc. (ii) T do ha ti chnh (unregulated finance). Nm 1999, di p lc ca cc nhm c quyn ti chnh, Bill Clinton k o lut mi (Gramm-leach-Bliey), khai t o lut Glass-Steagal (1933). iu ny cho php cc ngn hng thng mi tham gia vo cc hot ng u t rt ri ro (ch yu l trong lnh vc bt ng sn), lm khi u bong bng nh t ngay t nm 2000. Giai on 2: Thi k ca cu tng thng George Bush (2001 - 2008), vi im ni bt l mt cn i v m ngy cng trm trng, th hin: (i) M chu gnh nng ca hai cuc chin tranh ti Iraq v Afganistan (sau s kin 11 thng 9). iu ny trc tip lm tng thm ht ngn sch; (ii) Thm ht cn cn thng mi v n nc ngoi ca M (nht l vi Trung Quc) tng trong sut 3 thp k, nhng nhanh nht l n cui nm 2008. N rng u t nc ngoi ca M (Americas net international investment position) vo 2008 l 3.47 ngn t USD, tng 1.33 ngn t, hay 62% so vi cui nm 2007. l mc tng cao nht k t nm 1976. Nu xt tng s n ca M so vi GDP, th bc tranh cho thy s bp bnh v ti chnh r hn nhiu. Trong thp k 80, di thi Regan, tng s n ca M so vi t l ca GDP (US total debt as % of GDP) b y t 150% ln n xp x 240%. Con s ny tng ln rt t trong sut 2 nhim k ca Clinton, ti gn 250%. Nhng n li b y ln di thi ca Bush, t ti 350% vo nm 2008, vt xa nh cao trong lch s l 300%, khi xy ra cuc i khng hong 1929-1930. Nh ni, khi vic mt cn i v m tr nn nghim trng, th bong bng u c d dng lm cho khng hong n ra. Hy nhn li nhng din bin chnh a n khng hong: - Nm 2000, sau cuc v bong bng chng khon (dotcom bubble), Fed h thp li sut c

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bn nhm c mc tiu kp: (i) Kch thch u t v tiu dng trong nc (ii) Lm gim gi tr ca ng USD so vi cc ng ngoi t mnh khc, nhm kch thch xut khu, cho php gim thm ht ngoi thng v kim ch n nc ngoi. V di hn, s kch thch u t, y mnh tin b cng ngh v tng nng sut lao ng s lm tng kh nng cnh tranh quc t v sc mnh ca ng USD M. iu dn n k vng v mt s thnh vng di hn ca t nc v ngi dn M. - Hiu ng ph ca vic gim li sut c bn ca Fed l gim li sut vay, do , lm tng tng s cho vay u t vo bt ng sn (mortgages). iu ny c thc y bi nim tin ca ngi dn vo s giu c ngy cng tng ca M; vo dn s tip tc tng; v gii hn ca t ai; nn gi bt ng sn s ch c tng. Ni mt cch khc, bong bng bt ng sn bt u hnh thnh. - Bong bng nh t kch thch cc ngn hng thng mi (commercial banks) tham gia vo cc hot ng u c ri ro cao (ch yu trn lnh vc bt ng sn). iu ny trc y b cm, do ri ro trong u c bt ng sn c coi l vt qu kh nng m bo an ton ca cc ngn hng thng mi. (Xem li hiu ng adverse selection, moral hazard, m Stiglitz - Weiss ch ra). Tuy nhin, by gi h li c php lm, nh o lut mi, Gramm-leach-Bliey. - Tuy nhin, i ph vi ri ro cao, cc ngn hng thng mi, nh Freddie Mac v Fannie Mae, chng khon ha nhng khon cho vay u t bt ng sn. - iu ny trn thc t c ngha l: nhng c nhn hay t chc cho vay u t bt ng sn (originators) bn cc khon cho vay ca h (mortgages) cho cc ngn hng thng mi (nh Freddie, Fannie). Cc ngn hng ny b cc khon vay n li, ng vi tng mc ri ro, ri phn nh ra lm tng tnh thanh khon, sau bn ra nh chng khon cho cng chng, thng qua cc ngn hng u t (securitization).

- Khi cng chng hay nhng nh u t ph thng mua cc khon cho vay n c chng khon ha ny, h thng mua lun bo him (mortgage backed securities) chng li ri ro do khon vay n c chng khon ha c th khng tr c (default). - V vy, qu trnh ny cho php nhng c nhn, t chc cho vay u t vo bt ng sn (originators) trt c gnh nng ri ro sang cho t chc khc gnh chu, v thu v khon tin bn ra nhng ti sn cho vay c chng khon ha . H giu ln nhanh chng, nn c cc cng ty xp hng (rating companies) nh gi cao (AAA). Do vy, cc nh u t ph thng trn th trng vn cng hng phn, v gi bt ng sn cng b bc ln cao. - Cho ti ht nhim k u tin ca cu tng thng Bush (2004), bong bng bt ng sn khng to ra lo ngi. L do l nn kinh t v c bn vn vng vng: tc tng nng sut v tin lng thc t vn tip tc c gi mc cao; cn i v m vn nm trong tm kim sot. - Vi mt s lng rt ln cc d n u t vo bt ng sn, cc t chc bo him, nh AIG, c th xc nh c chnh xc mt t l % kh nh, rng u c c th b tht bi (default). Tc l, h xc nh c t sut sinh li ca mi ng vn cho vay (profit net of default), cng nh ph bo him (risk premium) cho ri ro b n xu. Nh , h c th nh gi chnh xc cc khon cho vay n c chng khon ho theo mc ri ro ca n. V vy, trong iu kin cn bng v m c duy tr, cc t chc ny hot ng rt c li nh bong bng nh t. - Vo sau qu I/2005, thm ht ngn sch, thm ht ngoi thng, v n nc ngoi ca M th hin ra ngy cng trm trng. Tuy nhin, tc tng nng sut - ng lc ca tng trng di hn ca nn kinh t - vn cn ang mc kh sung sc. Fed thay i chnh sch ca mnh v y li sut c bn ln 0.25 % trong mi ln iu chnh. Mc ch l nhm thu hp cu c; hn ch bong bng nh t; v li vn u t vo cc lnh vc cng ngh cao, c hiu qu di hn cao hn.

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- Nu (i) vn u t c chuyn mnh vo lnh vc cng ngh cao, cho php tng nng sut v sc cnh tranh ca nn kinh t M v (ii) gnh nng hai cuc chin tranh khng tng vt, th cn i v m s c ci thin. Trn thc t, bong bng nh t khng h gim v n nc ngoi ngy cng tng. Mt trong cc l do l cc ngn hng kim li nhanh hn nh bong bng nh t; v khng quan tm ng k ti u t vo cng ngh cao, i hi thi gian u t lu sinh li. Thm vo , chin tranh ngy cng tr nn tn km. H qu l mt cn i v m tr nn nghim trng, buc Fed phi mnh tay hn. - Fed lin tip y li sut c bn ln 0.25% trong mi ln iu chnh cho ti ht nm 2006, v duy tr n mc cao ti cui 2008 (xem hnh 1, ph lc). - H qu l, li sut cho vay u c vo bt ng sn (mortgage interest rates) tng ln gp bi v khng ngng b y ln. S ng tng lp trung lu, ang vay n u t vo nh t, lc ny khng cn chu ng ni gnh nng li sut, dn n bong bng nh t v. - Vo cui 2008, hng lot ngi vay n buc phi tr li nh ca, bt ng sn mua bng tin vay khng c th chp cho ngn hng tr n. Gi bt ng sn st gim nhanh chng. Ti sn cho vay c chng khon ho b bn ra o t, khin cho gi ca chng st gim mnh trn th trng chng khon. iu m cc ngn hng (nh Freddie v Fannie), v t chc bo him (nh AIG), khng k vng xy ra, th nay tr thnh thc t. Cng mt lc, hng lot con n b v n vi quy m ln, khin cho vn ca cc ngn hng b bc hi nhanh chng (xem hnh 2, ph lc). - S hong lon t th trng nh t, lan sang th trng chng khon, ri lan sang h thng ngn hng (bank panics). Khng hong ti chnh bt u din ra, th hin nh sau: + 1/7/2008, Bank of America mua li Countrywide Financials (mt trong nhng t chc bn mortgage backed securities ln nht).

+ 8/9/2008, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae b quc hu ho (vi tng ti sn hn 5 ngn t USD). + 15/ 9/2008, Lehman n ph sn (ti sn ln nht trong lch s nc M: 600 t USD). + 16/9/2008, Fed buc phi cu AIG vi 85 t USD cu tr (Ti sn ca n hn 1 ngn t USD). L do l cc t chc ny mt kh nng thanh ton. S v n ca mt lot t chc trong lnh vc ti chnh, a c lm mt s lng ln nhn vin lm vic thuc lnh vc ny b sa thi. S st gim mnh gi a c, chng khon, lm ti sn ca gii trung lu - tr ct ca sc tiu th ca nn kinh t M b gim mnh, dn n s co tht v tng cu tiu dng hng ha cao cp v lu bn nh xe hi, cng nh cc dch v gii tr. iu ny cng lm cc cng ty xe hi ln nh GM v mt s ln cc nh thu ph ca chng b ph sn. Nhiu trung tm gii tr ln nh Las vegas cng vng khch. Vic rt nhiu cc cng ty ti chnh v phi ti chnh b ph sn lm tng s ngi tht nghip, ko theo s co hp tng cu v tiu dng v u t, din ra theo ng xoy c i xung. Do M l trung tm ti chnh, th trng tiu th, v l con n ln nht th gii; khng hong ti chnh v kinh t ca M lan nhanh ra cc nn kinh t khc, dn n khng hong kinh t ton cu. Nh chng ta thy, mt trong cc h qu ca o lut cho php s t do ha ca hot ng ngn hng (Gramm-leach-Bliey) l s xut hin cc hnh thc giao dch phi sinh trn th trng cho vay u t bt ng sn (subprime mortgage market). C th l qu trnh chng khon ha cc khon cho vay n trn th trng (securitization), i km vi cc hnh thc mua bo him ri ro (mortgage backed securities). Trong iu kin cn bng v m c duy tr, cc d n vay u t vo bt ng sn l kh an ton, theo ngha, (i) ri ro b v n l nh; (ii) kh nng v n l bit lp nhau (d n ny b ph sn (default) khng ko theo d n khc b ph sn theo); (iii) c mt s lng ln

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cc d n ang sinh li cao. Khi , ngn hng v cc cng ty bo him khng k vng c mt s lng rt ng nhng ngi vay n s b v n hng lot, trn quy m ln, v vo cng mt thi im. Trong iu kin , hot ng bo him l rt c Mt trong cc h qu ca li. Nh ni, cc cng o lut cho php s t do ha ty bo him ca hot ng ngn l s xut (nh AIG), c hin cc hnh thc giao dch th xc nh phi sinh trn th trng cho c hu nh vay u t bt ng sn. chnh xc t l trung bnh s d n b v n (v con s % b tai nn l nh). V vy, bo him cho vic mua cc khon vay n c chng khon ha l mt hnh thc phi sinh rt c li, khi gi nh t ang c chiu hng tng n nh. Mt khc, v pha ngn hng, vic bn ra cc khon cho vay c chng khon ha (securitization) l mt hnh thc phi sinh kh thng minh cc t chc ny a dng ha gnh nng ri ro, trnh b mt qu nhiu vn do ri ro khng i c n (adverse selecion and moral hazard). Khon tin thu v do bn ra cc khon cho vay c chng khon ha , li tip tc c s dng cho vay mi khin cnc gn hng giu ln rt nhanh. Nh nu, vo sau qu I/2005, tnh hnh thay i. Cn i v m b xu i nghim trng, th hin bi con s vay n ca Chnh ph M, thm ht ngoi thng, v n nc ngoi ca M so vi t l GDP tng ln. n lt n, s mt cn i kinh t v m li p Fed tng li sut c bn ln lin tip 0.25% sau mi ln iu chnh. Tuy vy, ng USD vn tip tc b st gi so vi cc ngoi t mnh khc trong sut cc nm 2005 -2008, ko theo s giao ng mnh ca gi c trn th trng vn, ngoi hi, nng lng, v nht l th trng cho cc giao dch tng lai (future market). Trong khun kh hp hn m chng ta ang quan tm, iu khin cho: (i) mc ri ro ca hot ng u c trn lnh vc bt ng sn ti M b tng vt, do gi c cc ti sn ti chnh giao ng mnh v kh lng; (ii) ton

b mi trng v m b bt n, cc t chc ti chnh v bo him khng cn kh nng phn loi cc khon n theo tng lp ri ro. Thay vo , c s cng hng ca hu ht cc d n ca nhng ngi i vay: hoc bong bng bt ng sn s tip tc, v tt c cc nh u c s tip tc c li ln; hoc bong bng s bt ng b v, v tt c b v n. Cng ht nh khu vc c kh nng xy ra ha hon hay ng t ln, bo him ti sn nh ca khu vc s thu li cao, nu nn ha hon hay ng t vn cha xy ra. V hng bo him hay ngn hng cho vay u t vo nh t s b sp T do ha ti chnh lun dn tim, nu n bong bng. Bt n v m cng mt lun gy ra ri ro h thng. Khi lc, hng hai yu t ny tc ng ng lot ngi nh thi, chng lm xut hin s b chy ri may ri trn quy m ln. hay b ph hy bi ng t. Tnh hnh cc t chc ti chnh v bo him cho cc khon cho vay c chng khon ha ti M, vo cc nm 2006 - 2008, thc s trong tnh cnh tng t. iu m cc nh kinh t hc th ch nh Stiglitz (2008), v c nhng ngi theo ch thuyt t do, nh Mc Kinnon (1991), mun nhn mnh y l: khi ri ro mang tnh h thng nh vy, vi (i) s gim st ti chnh lng lo; (ii) cc t chc ti chnh ngm cho rng Nh nc ng sau bo him cho mi ri ro, v khng th hng lot cc t chc ti chnh, cng nghip cng mt lc b v. Khi , cc t chc ti chnh c th thc hin nhng hnh vi trc li rt v trch nhim (moral hazard in bank, theo cch ni ca Kane, 1985). V d, ngn hng c th thc hin hng lot cc giao dch cho vay rt mo him, c lc ln ti 110% gi tr th trng ca ti sn nh ca, m khng cn th chp (Selten, 2008). Vi s bt n v m to nn ri ro h thng (ging nh ri ro sp xy ra ng t ln), vic cho vay o t v y mo him s em li li nhun kch s cho ngn hng, nu bong bng bt ng sn vn

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tip tc tng; v cc nh ti phit b li ng sau cho Chnh ph v x hi gnh chu tn tht khng l (nu bong bng v), vi hng lot d n b v n, gi tr ti sn b suy sp trn quy m ln v xy ra cng mt lc, nh sau mt cn ha hon hay ng t ln. Tm li, t do ha ti chnh (unregulated finance) lun dn n bong bng. Bt n v m lun gy ra ri ro h thng. Khi hai yu t ny tc ng ng thi, chng lm xut hin s may ri trn quy m ln, lun kch thch lng tham v hnh vi v trch nhim ca cc t chc ti chnh khng b gim st (moral hazard in bank). Chnh s tham lam khng b kim sot l nguyn nhn chnh v th ch, y nn kinh t hng mnh nh ca M ti khng hong. 3. Bi hc rt ra cho Vit Nam Khng hong kinh t th gii nh hng trc tip ti Vit Nam theo c hai v ca tng cu: (i) cu u t b gim do ngun cung vn FDI v u t gin tip b gim mnh (ii) cu v tiu dng b gim, do khng hong th gii lm gim mnh cu v hng xut khu. iu ny khin cc cng ty gia cng, lp rp hng xut khu phi gin th, lm tng s lng tht nghip v thp nghip tm thi; ko theo s st gim tiu dng ni a. Chnh ph Vit Nam nhanh chng thc hin gi kch cu nhiu t USD, thng qua cc khon cho vay vi s h tr li sut, i km vi gin thu nh vo cc doanh nghip. Mc d v mt ch trng, gi kch cu ny nhm h tr cc ngnh xut khu v u t vo cc d n h tng, to vic lm, thu nhp, v kch thch tiu dng ca dn c. Tuy nhin, s gim mnh v nhu cu t cc th trng xut khu truyn thng l mt tr ngi trong vi nm ti m Vit nam s tip tc phi i mt. Bn cnh , theo nh gi ca V thng k ti khon quc gia: Tiu dng ca dn c suy gim nghim trng mc m 10% trong na u nm nay so vi cng k nm ngoi (SGTT, 07/07/09).

iu ni ln rng, mc d gi kch cu l rt nhanh v kh ln so vi t l GDP, nhng hiu qu thc t ca n cn phi c s thm nh v nh gi chnh xc, nhm trnh cho nn kinh t b ri vo mt cuc suy thoi hay lm pht mi trong tng lai. Bi hc t khng hong kinh t M cho thy, kch cu t bn thn n khng phi l gii php cho php nn kinh t vt nhanh ra khi khng hong; m ngc li, c th l him ha tim n gy nn lm pht v suy thoi, nu th ch ti chnh c nhng khim khuyt, khin cho dng vn kch cu b li trch khi mc tiu ban u, hoc b s dng qu km hiu qu. kch bn xu nht, dng vn kch cu c th b li vo u c bong bng chng khon hoc bt ng sn, v bn cht ca n vn ch l chnh sch ni lng tin t, da trn vic h thp li sut nh M lm. iu ny c th l mt nguy c d xy ra, bi ri ro la chn ti (adverse selection) v him ha do s v trch nhim trong vic s dng vn vay (moral hazard), m Stiglitz - Weiss ch ra; v cng bi chnh hnh vi trc li c th xy ra ngay ti cc t chc ti chnh, do thiu s gim st cht ch (moral hazard in bank). Chng ta cn tch bit r gia nguyn ng n ca chnh sch kch cu vi khim khuyt hay ri ro c th xy ra ca h thng ti chnh (m ngay c M cng c vn ), c mt ci nhn thc tin. Trong kch bn xu nht ny, Vit Nam s tri qua tng t bong bng chng khon v bong bng bt ng sn, theo tng chu k ca chnh sch ni lng tin t. V cng nh xy ra M, iu ny khin hiu qu u t v nng sut chung ca nn kinh t c th b gim st hoc khng tng theo ng tim nng, ko theo tnh trng gim sc cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip, thm ch ngay trn th trng ni a. Trong iu kin c de facto t do thng mi vi Trung Quc - mt nn kinh t ang i ln da trn vic tng hiu qu theo quy m sn xut ln, th kch bn trn li t ra mt thch thc khc cho Vit Nam. Gi kch cu ln so vi t l GDP, v thm ht ngn sch cng

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kh ln so vi t l GDP hin nay ca Vit Nam s khng gy ra p lc lm pht ngay, v sc tiu dng cng nh u t vn ang suy gim. Nhng n trc tip lm gim gi tr ng tin ca Vit Nam so vi ng nhn dn t, hoc lm ngp hng nhp khu cht lng thp ca Trung Quc vo Vit Nam, hoc c hai (Samuelson - Balasa effect). H qu l nhp siu v vay n ca Vit Nam, ch ring vi i tc khng l Trung Quc, s tng nhanh. Vit Nam gp phi thch thc rt ln nhng c hi cng ang m ra. Vn l chng ta c nm bt c c hi hay khng. Cn nhn nh r rng, Trung Quc l mt siu cng ang ni ln, mt nh my sn xut ca th gii, mt th trng ang tng trng nhanh (va vt c M tr thnh th trng tiu th t ln nht th gii); v l mt quc gia c d tr vn gn nh ln nht th gii. Mt chnh sch nhm lm co hp dn khong cch v nng sut ca nn kinh t Vit Nam so vi Trung Quc s bin Vit Nam thnh ni ht u t nc ngoi cc mnh, ngay khi nn kinh t th gii

phc hi tr li. l c hi pht trin cho Vit Nam, da ngay trn sc mnh ang ln ca Trung Quc. iu ny i hi phi c mt s thay i v th ch qun l mt cch c trt t v vng chc. Mt th ch qun l nhn mnh ti trch nhim, hiu qu ca tng t bo ca b my qun l Nh nc, ca tng t chc ti chnh v cng nghip i vi li ch ca ton x hi v vi yu cu pht trin bn vng. iu i hi mt s minh bch v thng tin qun l, v hiu qu kinh t - x hi ca tng n v hay t chc trong tng a phng v trong ton nn kinh t. y cng chnh l bi hc qu bu nht v tin trnh chuyn i t chc v qun l ti Trung Quc trong ci cch. Cng nh Singapore, Hn Quc, i Loan, hay Trung Quc, n trc y, s thch thc v c hi ang t ra vi Vit Nam hm nay. H cng bt u t mt x hi nh chnh chng ta. V chng ta cng hon ton c th vn ln nh h, ha nhp vo mt Chu nng ng v mt Th gii pht trin bn vng hn.

Hnh 1. Li sut c bn ca Fed

Hnh 1. Li sut c bn ca Fed.

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215

B a n k s: M a rk e t C a p
M a r k e t V alu e a s o f J a n u ar y 2 0 th 2 0 0 9, $B n M a r k e t V alu e a s o f Q 2 2 0 07 , $ B n
RBS 12 0 M org an St a n l e y D eu t sc he Ba n k 76 67 49 S o c ie t e G en e ra le 80 B a rc la y s 10 8 91 93 B NP P a r ib a s U n ic red it 116 C red it A gr i c o le U BS

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W h i l e JP M o rg a n c o n s i d e rs t h i s i n f o rm a t io n t o b e r e l ia b l e , w e c a n n o t g u a ra n t e e i t s a c c u ra cy o r c o m p l e t e n e s s

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Hnh 2. Bong bng v s bc hi ti sn ca cc ngn hng sau khng hong.

Ti liu tham kho

[1] Akerlof (1970), The Market for lemons: quality uncertainty and the market mechanism. Quarterly Journal of Economics (84): 488-500. [2] Aoki, M., (1994). Monitoring Characteristics of the Main Bank System: An Analytical and Developmental View in Masahiko Aoki and Hugh Patrick (eds.) The Japanese Main bank System, Oxford University Press, 109 --133. [3] Friedman v Schwartz (1963), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867 - 1960. Princeton University Press, Princeton. [4] Kane (1985), The gathering crisis in Federal deposit insurance. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. [5] Kindleberger (1978), Manias, Panics and Crashes. MacMillan, London.

[6] Krugman (2008), Moment of truth. The New York Times, October 09. [7] Mc Kinnon (1991), The order of economcs liberalization. The Johns Hopkins University Press. [8] Misky (1972), Financial stability revisited: the economics of disaster. In Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Reappraisal of Federal Reserve Discount Mechanism, vol. 3. Washington, D.C.: 95-136. [9] Stiglitz and Weiss (1981), Credit rationing in market with imperfect information. American economic Review (60): 107-16. [10] Stiglitz (2008), The fruit of hypocrisy. The Guardian, Tuesday 16 September. [11] Selten (2008), Regulation of financial market is important Spiegel Online International, November, 12.

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World economic crisis and lessons for Vietnam

Dr. Le Hong Nhat
Faculty of Economics, Vietnam National University, Hochiminh City, Linh Trung, Thu Duc, Hochiminh City, Vietnam

The financial crisis happened recently in the US is unprecedented in term of destructive force and deep impacts on the Global system, financially and economically. This paper attempts to set light on the roots of the crisis and emphasizes on a need to monitor the financial system against the risk of instability and false expectations or bubbles due to inadequate regulations and regulatory structures. The policy implication is that we cannot have a well-performing modern economy without a good financial system, which is regulated by a well-designed monitoring mechanism and transparency. The study includes four main parts: firstly, part 1 reviews some schools of thought of financial crisis; part 2 outlines main events leading to the financial crisis in the US, dated back to the end of the presidency of Clinton; part 3 provides an analytical view to rethink the chain of events leading to the crisis; finally, the recent financial crisis hence provides a lesson on deregulation process in emerging economies. In particular, it emphasizes on the need to build a good financial system and good institutions, good rules for a well-performing economy. It is not simply to tear down the old institutions, such as soft-budget constraint, that are preventing innovation and development. Obviously, this lesson can well apply for Vietnam.

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