You are on page 1of 26

1



UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine
,28,2011




, . 

.
.
        ,  
,         ,  
.
,            
.
           
,.,
,         
        .     
           
.
;
x
x
x
x

 1:         
.
2:.
M 3:            
.
4:,
.



            .  
     JeanPaul Carvalho, Michelle Garfinkel,  ,
David Hewitt,  ,  , Gary Richardson,    
.       (  )    
.

x
x
x

 5:    
.
6:.
 7:          
.


.

1:.
              
   .     .
   2010,    ,  

.
        21     

21%
        .    
 
           
.2650%, 
2.



   50%         . 
(.,
.
,50%
.  ,   50%      50%  
[](
[writedown]).,
(..,1530)
.
,
,
            . 
21,,9%
21%,(
    )     10%    . , 
           
,
           
.


     , 
   ,      .
     ,     
(indentured servitude).    , ,     
        3.  
,
     . ,  ,    

           . ,

.
,.
,
,,,.,
  ,         


  .   ,       
         
    .      
 , , ,    
.
,            2010
    .      
,       .     
//           

.2126,

,.

            .
, ,         
     .  
         , ,
,

,,

            
,             
           
,.


.
         

    .     
        ,  
           
        .  ,    
          

.
,,.
(,       
       EFSF.)  
  , ,      
.
          

    ,        
.;

 .            
           ,   
          
.,   
            ,  
.

      (   ,  
).
           
.
,        ,  
     .  ,  ,
          .  , 
        ,     
          ,    
.
          2010,    
(writedown)
         50%  
.,

   (IOUs)      . 
.
            
   ,     
   ,     
 .           
.
.

,.
115%160%.FinancialTimes22
2011,
,
130%  2030. ,       ,  
     .   
 ,        
150%2030.
           , 


    . ,    
       
26.
           
        
  .          
    .       
.,
  .          
,
,         ,  
.

2:.
            
  ,  ,       .
,
            
.

            
.,
.,
            
         
        ,    
4.

           
    ,   ,    (1)  
,   .       
    2010.       115% .  
        21  (21%, 
),90%,
.
,
.
         ,   
     2010,   1)      
   2)       
(     ),       
,.
        
  ,   
.,,
.
             
,           
  4,5%    2%        
5.

,
,.(2011).
4

,,
.
.

(:
)
(ELA).
.

,,
          
(IOUs)    ,   ,     
 .          
            
.
   ,   ,      
,.
           

   ()       ,

          
.,
 ,    , 
            
           
.
.
   ,  , ,  

.
            
,

        .  
 ,         
      /.      
            

         
   .   , ,     
/   .      
          
.
         
    .       
.




     , ,  . ,  
  ,
.
,           
           
    ,        
.
,          
,

  .          
  ,  , ,   
         
.
,          , 
        
             
,.
 3:             


          .
(Feldstein,2011,.5)
   .   .        
 ,          
.,
   ,       .   ,    
,           
.

            
.6
     .        
         ,    


6
(2010)
.


           
 (      ).  , , 
 
,
.
1
        2000  2008.    
          
      (: ,   ). 
 

,
  .         
        ,    
,.
.
%
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

NOR DNK

FRA

FIN

SVN

EST

POL

NLD

GRC HUN

CZE

SVK

CAN GBR

Generalgovernment

LUX

IRL

ISR

AUS

USA

CHE

ITA

DEU

ESP

TUR

NZL

MEX

CHL

JPN

RUS BRA

Publiccorporations

1:
(20002008).
(21.2OECD(2011).

             
   ,      
           
      . ,  
         
.,
       . ,   
         . 
             
.


            
             
      .     
        
,   ,    . , , ,
,
.,
              
,
           
.

            (  
     )   ;    
 .        

   ,   ,    .  

        ,    
.          
              
.
   .          
.
,
(swap)GoldmanSachs
.

.,
.
         ,    
           .7    
.
           . 

.,
    ,       
.
      ,    


(2011)

10

  .         

  ,     .  

      .      
.
          

.

.          
            , 

.,
,,
,.
    ,        
.8
             
 .           ,  
         . 
  :         
           
 
    .9      
      ,      
.
,.
  ,          
    .        ,  
             
2007
   ,         
      .       
    ,        

.ResearchonMoneyandFinance(2010,Fig.14,27)

.Ahamed,2009,

.


11


             
.


 4:      ,      
.

.
             
.,,
           
.
,20112011
3,0%20121%(.IMF,2011,8).
  , ,       
[20102011]7,0%2012
 .    Financial Times  22  2011,  
.
,,
       
          
. , ,      
    ,     
           
.
,,
,      ,    
.
,.
,
.:
x 23%,19%13%,
.
x (,)
.
x    ( )    
.

12

x   ,   10%     
().
x         
.
x .
x 12.0005.000.
x 20%(40%)
2010.
x 2010.
x 1
6%.
x       20%     40%  
.
x          
50%().
x .

.
       .    
           
  .          
           
.

           
            
.
,
            
,
.
          
            
  ,   ,    
,
        .     
         


13

          
.,
       

  .            
 , ,       

o
.
5:
.
           , 
1).2)
          
 .  3)   .   
      ,      
..

             
.        , 
,
   ,          
.
,,
          
.,
.,
2,5%.
         
.
           

.,,
 (.,
Ahamed, 2009).          
 ,     ,      . 
     ,     
,
 ,        
.,.

14

.
1000300
       100   .     600
.20%200
.400,
  33%       . , 


.
,

   ,        
     .    
 (debt deflation)        
          
.
  
          
  .      
 :       , ,
,.

  .          
.



          
.       

    .         
      
  ,         

.
,
       ,     
          .  
,
.

15

, ,         
      ,    
    .        
.

           50
.
          
          
;
    .         
.

;
x

  , ,      
   .       
,.
.,
         ,
          
,.

         , 

.,
.


     (    
    ),   
    .  
,
.


.        ,
   ,    
.,,
       :
.

            
          .  


16

     ,       
 . ,        , 

  ,   :      .
 .    .  
.(Lewis,2011)
,
 ,      ,    
          ,
.

6:.
           
.
  ,         
.
   ,   iphones      
.,
          
            
  .   , ,       
           
.
,          
       ,       
  
     .      
.
,             


17

 10.     ( 5),   
 ,     .      
             

      .     
  ,          
. ,        ,  
.
          
           
. 
.
(
 )  ,     .    
.
,  ,  ,  ,  
 ,         
.          
.
;;
;
;;
,,.
    ,       
.
       .   

.
           
.
,
  .  ,       

Rodrik(2011)ORourke

10

(2011),,
..
(),
,


3/5.


18


     ,   ,   
            
     .       

      .       
       ,     
.
              
.

,.
,
,
.
,
.

.,[netcreditors]
    [net debtors]       
         
.
,,
.  
           
           
.
,
.,

.
       , 
,
          ,  
.
      .  UBS (2011),
,
.
      2009       , 
            
.
.


19

,
                
 ;        ,  
      ,       
.
;,
             
.

.

    ,         
  ,       
.
,

.      ,    . 
      ,        
.
,,
            
,
.
,              
.
            
,
   .       

 ,      .
,               
.
         
,
.

 7:           
.
,.
,.()


20

         
    ,       
 
.,
           . , ,
           


(CreditDefaultSwaps:CDS).
      CDS      
.

    ,        
.,
,
.
,,
.
. ,           
 ,           
   .         

    ,        
;
  ,         
             
         .  
         
.
,             
 Bild      .     
,
.
          
.
.
,
     .    
,.
    ,    
         
   .         


21

      ,     

 .          
           50
.
             
           
    .    
  ,        
 .        
       
      ,      
,.
,
               

.

            
.

              
   .         
       ,   
;
           
.
,
            
.
         
           

.
             

 (   )       
.

     .    , ,   


22

,
...,
..
           
.              

,
.,
    ; ,    
              
.


,
         
 .        
            
.
          
     .     

.
           
    .     
,
 . ,        
           
          
.
           
          
.          , 
         
.
,
.,
         
,
.  ,          
,           
             


23


,
,,,.,
,,
    .         
.,,
,
         
,.
,
.
.
         , 

       .   
            
,
    .  ,  

.
,,
   ,        
.

   ,  ,      

.
          
:
x


x

            
.         26
     50%    
(.2).,
    21 ,        
    .    , 
           .
,            
.
          
.
.
         
24

,    ,  , 
,


x

,  
       
        
.           
        
           
 .          
        
.
,,
          
.

           
          
          
 .        
,
       . , 
   ,          
    ,         
.


        
            
.
    ,       
.

,,
           
 .        
          
,           
             
.  ,        
         ,  
,.









25


Ahamed,Liaquat(2009),LordsofFinance:TheBankersWhoBroketheWorld,PenguinPress,
NewYork.
Feldstein,Martin(2011)VaclavKlausandtheEuro,March,NBER.
http://www.nber.org/feldstein/essaysinhonorofVaclavKlaus.pdf
InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)(2011),Greece:ThirdReviewUndertheStandBy
Arrangement,CountryReportNo.11/68,March.
Katsimi,MargaritaandMoutos,Thomas(2010),EMUandtheGreekCrisis,European
JournalofPoliticalEconomy,December,26(4),568576.
Lewis,Michael(2011),ItstheEconomy,Dummkopf!,VanityFair,September.
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/09/europe201109
OECD(2011),GovernmentataGlance,OECDPublishing.
http://www.oecdilibrary.org/governance/governmentataglance2011_gov_glance2011
en
ORourke,KevinH.(2011),ATaleofTwoTrilemmas,TrinityCollegeDublin,March.
ResearchonMoneyandFinance(2010),EurozoneCrisis:BegarThyselfandThyNeighbour,
C.Lapavitsas,A.Kaltenbrunner,D.Lindo,J.Michell,J.P.Painceira,E.Pires,J.Powell,A.
Stenfors,N.Teles,OccasionalReport1,March.www.researchonmoneyandfinance.org
Rodrik,Dani(2011),TheGlobalizationParadox:DemocracyandtheFutureoftheWorld
Economy,W.W.Norton,NewYork.
Skaperdas,Stergios,PolicymakingintheEurozoneandtheCorevs.PeripheryProblem,
CESifoForum,2/2011,1218downloadablein:
http://www.cesifogroup.de/portal/page/portal/ifoHome/bpubl/b2journal/30publforum/_p
ublforum?item_link=forumindex211.htm
UBS,(2011),Eurobreakuptheconsequences,UBSInvestmentResearch,Global
EconomicPerspectives,September.


26

You might also like