,,

M
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- 101072

101060

- 101068

, 2010

1. ..................................................................................................... 3
2. ......................................................
4
3. ...................................................................................
5
4.

...............................................................................7
5.
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, . Y
, T , C ,
S

,
:
Y=TCSR
:
Y=T+C+S+R

:
Y = (T C) + (S R)

Y = T + (C S R)


. ,
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.
4.


y = a + bx
(x1; y1), (x2; y2),
(x; y)

().

a b
:
(a + b1x1 y1)2 + (a+b2x2 y2)2 + . . . +(a+bn xn yn)2 = min.
a b
(, , 2, 3 ,
.).

a b ,

:
y = na + b x
yx = a x + b x2

0 (x = 0),
,
( ) .
,
7

1982 1992 , ( )

1998,

1999,

2000

,
.
.

xy

x2

yc

1982

y
11,69

x
1

11,69

12,92

1983

11,10

22,20

12,49

1984

11,58

34,74

12,06

1985

13,56

54,24

16

11,63

1986

11,09

55,45

25

11,20

1987

11,43

68,58

36

10,77

1988

12,90

90,30

49

10,34

1989

10,86

86,88

64

9,91

1990

10,19

91,71

81

9,48

1991

7,54

10

75,40

100

9,05

1992
11
N

6,58

11
66
x

72,38
663,57
xy

121
506
x2

8,62
/

1998

18

5,61

1999

19

5,18

20

4,75

2000

1998, 1999 2000 .

a b
y = aN + bx
xy = ax + bx2
118,2 = 11a + 66b
663,57 = 66a + 506b
10,77 = a + 6,00b
10,05 = a+7,67b
-0,72 = 1,67b
b =- -

= -0,43

10,77 = a+6,00 (-0,43)

a =13,35

yc = 13,35 - 0,43x
X

, :
yc 1982 = 13,35 0,431 = 12,92
yc 1983 = 13,35 0,432 = 12,49
yc 1984 = 13,35 0,433 = 12,06 .
9



b, 0,038.

X
. ,
1998,
1999 2000 , .
yc 1998 = 13,35 0,4318 = 5,61
yc 1999 = 13,35 0,4319 = 5,18
yc 2000 = 13,35 0,4320 = 4,75

5.

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( )

.

- , , 2001
, , 2006

11