K 9163

*
**
Saveliev Igor
2011 3 3
Social Change in Contemporary Mexico and Its Northern Border Area
Yu NOUCHI, Japan

0.1
0.1. 1
0.2
0.3
0.4 / ()
13
0.5
19
PRI
21
1.1
21
1.1.2 NAFTA
22
1.1.3 PRI
24
1.2
29
1.3
PRI
35
1.4
PRI
38
1.5
2006
2.1
44
2.2
48
53
2.3
57
2.4
63
2.5
69
3.1
73
3.2
1980
76
3.3
79
3.4
83
4.1
87
4.2
92
4.3
96
4.4
99
102
105
Appendix
112
119
ii
0.1
2007
0.1 ()
0.2
10
0.3 /
12
0.2
2000 2005
16
20
1.1
1940 2000
27
1.2 PRI
28
1.3
1982 1989
30
1.4
1982 1989
30
1.5
1967 1989
31
1.6
1980 1989
32
1.7
1983 1998
33
1.8
2004
34
iii
1.9
1988
37
1.10 1976 2000 PAN
40
1.11
45
2006
1.12 2006
46
1.13 2006
46
2
2.1
49
2.2 4
49
2.3 4
51
2.4
52
2.5
54
2.6
54
1900 1950
2.7
56
2.8
1981 1986
61
2.9
1981 1986
61
2.10
64
2.11
64
iv
2.12
65
2.13 1960 2005
66
2.14 1960 2005
67
2.1
69
2.15
70
2.16 2006
70
2.17 2006 :
71
3
3.1
74
3.2
2005
75
3.3
1987 2006
76
3.4
2008
78
3.5
80
3.6
81
2008
3.7 1999 2008
84
3.8
85
2008
4
4.1
93
4.2
96
4.3
98
2008 12
Appendix
Appendix 1 2000 2005
112
Appendix 2 2000 2005
113
Appendix 3
2006
114
Appendix 4
2006
115
Appendix 5
2006
116
Appendix 6
2005
117
Appendix 7
2005
118
vi
0.1
(
)
Troublesome Border (Oscar Martnez)

(norteo)
(Martnez 2006 : 101)
( 2 )
1
1
Troublesome Border 5 6 7
71
(Partido Revolucionario Institucional PRI)
PRI
PRI PRI
1
0.3
0.1.1
0.1.1
0.3 0.4
71 PRI
2000 (Partido Accin Nacional PAN)
1980
3000
0.1 2007
(10
()
1,307.5
39,650
22
13,886.4
46,040
16
989.5
13
9,400
72
() World Bank, 2009 World Development Indicators, 14-16.
1994
(Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OECD) 1994
( North American
Free Trade Agreement NAFTA)

G8
0.1 2007
72
4
2 3 4
0.2
4
1 PRI 2000
PRI
1 PRI
2
1940
1960
1960 2
3
4
1 4
0.3
Troublesome Border
(Martnez, 2006)
19
()
(Joan Anderson) (James Gerber)

Fifty years of Change on the U.S.-Mexico Border 1950
(Anderson and Gerber : 2008)
0.1
()
( )
0.1
2 4
Troublesome Border 5
(foreign dependence)
G (Manuel G. Gonzales)
( : Mexicanos : A History of Mexicans in the United States ) 19

(1521-1821) (1821-1848)
(1848-1900) 2
0.1
0.1
3 4
(Daniel D. Arreola)
2
20 (1900-1930)
(1930-1940) (1940-1965) (1965-1975)
1975-1998
(James R. Curtis) The Mexican Border Cities

(Arreola and Curtis : 1993)
1
100
18
( ) (
)
(Arreola and Curtis 1993 : 4-5)
0.2
10
( )
0.2
0.2
0.2
11
0.3
1980
0.3
/ ( )
12
PRI
20 20
21
1980
1980
0.3
0.4 / ()
/ ( )
1989 PAN
13

PRI
PRI
1989 PAN
PRI 1
1982
PAN PRI
PRI 2000
20 3
20
3 1980
4
3
1900 7 1062 1930 68 3681

1930 36 8
2003 : 216-217
4
(Ted Conover)
14
0.2
15
2000 2005
( : )
() INEGI, Conteo de Poblaci n y Vivienda 2005
417,000
300,000
14,007,000
193,000
59,000
2,844,000
188,000
491,000
8,721,000
121,000
114,000
53,000
3,024,000
113,000
107,000
6,752,000
101,000
28,000
1,135,000
7,110,000
97,000
96,000
50,000
4,199,000
10
82,000
44,000
3,241,000
11
80.000
12
69,000
26,000
1,598,000
13
62,000
53,000
4,894,000
14
59,000
69,000
3,966,000
15
59,000
92,000
2,608,000
16
58,000
44,000
2,395,000
5,383,000
2,346,000
2
1982
0.2 (Instituto Nacional
de Estadstica Geografa e Informtica INEGI) 2006 5 24 Conteo

de Poblaci n y Vivienda 2005 32 16
5 2000 10 2005 10
5
Appendix 1 Appendix 2
16
2000 2005 41 7
2
18 8
1940 1960
1940 1960
39.4% 37.6% (El Colegio de Mxico 1970 : 89)
0.2
10 ( 2 5
9 10 )
Octavio Paz
( : El laberinto de la soledad)
1990 : 251
21
17
PRI
PRI
PRI
1982
1982
1982
18
1 2
3)
3 a) 3b) 3a)
3b)
0.5
PRI
19
PRI
1929 PRI
PRI
( ) http://www.freemap.jp/north_ameria/na_mexico_kouiki_1.html
20
1.1
7
197 2550
5 31 1
(Estados Unidos Mexicanos)
1
5 1 2000
1999 : 3-4
1 8000
21
1.1.2
NAFTA
20
3000
22
19
1846
1848
(Tratado de Guadalupe Hidalgo
)
242 5780
1% 2003 : 143
1876
1911 (Porfirio
Daz)
Pobre Mxico! Tan lejos de Dios y tan cerca de los Estados Unidos!
30
1994 NAFTA
NAFTA
EU EU
NAFTA
EU
9
8
1810-1910 5
9
NAFTA
NAFTA
23

NAFTA
(Mercado Comn del Sur)
(Economic
Partnership Agreement EPA)
1.1.3 PRI
PRI
PRI 1929 2000 71
PRI PRI
PRI PRI
PRI 1910 10
PRI 1946
1929
(Partido
Nacional Revolucionario) 1938

(Partido de la Revolucin Mexicana) 1946
PRI 10
PRI
PRI
PRI
NAFTA
1995 : 52-53
10
PRIPRI http://www.pri.org.mx
: 2010.11.27.
24
2002 : 16 PRI
PRI
PRI
PRI
PRI
1940
11
12
1980
PRI
PRI PRI
11
PRI
12341936
CTM 1938
(CNC) CTM
(FSTSE) (
)
1940 ( 2002 : 296)
CTM
2010 : 20 (un gobierno militar)
(un gobierno civil) (Garrido 1982 :
303-306)
12
PRI
PRI
PRI
1
2002 : 17
25

PRI
PRI
1917 1917
1992
( 1998 :
35-57)
PRI
13 71 PRI
1.1
1940 2000 14
13
Stephen D. Morris Corrupcin y poltica en

el Mxico contemporneo (extorsin) (fraude)
(soborno privado) (colusin fraude con tierras)
(Contrabando, Mercado negro y falsificacin) (Morris 1992 : 80)
14
6 6
1934
26
1940-46
(vila
Camacho)
1946-52
(Miguel
Alemn)
1952-58
(Ruiz
Cortines)
1958-64
(Lpez Mateos)
1964-70
(Daz Ordaz)
1970-76
(Luis
Echeverra)
1976-82
(Lpez
Portillo)
1982-88
(Miguel de la
Madrid)
1988-94
(Carlos
Salinas)
1994-2000
(Ernesto Zedillo)
() ,,
319-320
1940
50 6% 60 7
70 6%
1950 30 1980 60
2002 : 325 1.1 (1940-46)
(1946-52) (1952-58) (1958-64) (1964-70)
1.2
PRI
PRI
27
1.2 PRI
1946
77.90
1952
74.31
1958
90.43
1964
88.82
1970
86.02
1976
100.00
1982
70.90
1988
50.36
PAN
() , PRI , 12.
PRI 1982
1.2
PRI
PRI
1970
9 1
(Haber et al 2008 : 57-65) ( 2002 : 334-335)
1982
(International Monetary Fund IMF)
IMF
28
IMF
1970
2006 : 21-23 1970
PRI
PRI
1.2
(Washington Consensus)
IMF DC
IMF DC
2006 : 54
29
1973
(Salvador Allende) (Augusto Pinochet)
1990
15
1.3
1982 1989
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
-0.5%
-5.3%
3.7%
2.7%
-4.0%
1.4%
1.4%
2.9%
() Miguel ngel Rivera Ros, El nuevo capitalism mexicano : El proceso de reestructuracin, 1983-1989,
104.
1.4
1982 1989
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
-15.9%
-25.3%
5.5%
7.9%
-11.8%
-0.6%
6.0%
2.9%
-12.7%
-28.6%
0.6%
0.9%
-14.2%
-9.8%
-2.7%
7.2%
-17.3%
-22.6%
9.0%
12.2%
-10.4%
4.3%
10.1%
8.3%
() Miguel ngel Rivera Ros, El nuevo capitalism mexicano : El proceso de reestructuracin, 1983-1989,
104.
1980 1982
16
1.3 1.4 1982 1989
15
2000 (Chvez)
(Lula) (Morales)
2006 2000
:
16
1974 1981 45%

PEMEX Haber et al : 2008 : 61-62
1982
30

1983 1.3
1.4
1982
1.5 1967 1989
1.6 1980 1989

1987 100
1.5
1967 1989
1965-73
1973-80
1980-88
1988
1989
4.6%
20.3%
78.2%
114.2%
20.0%
4.0%
22.3%
78.6%
107.8%
16.1%
()
1.6
The World Bank, Trends in Developing Economies 1990, 362.
1980 1989
(1987 100)
1980
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
2.2%
23.2%
43.1%
100.0%
214.2%
257.0%
31
2.1%
22.5%
42.4%
100.0%
207.8%
241.2%
()
The World Bank, Trends in Developing Economies 1990, 362.
1.5 1.6
1980 10
IMF
1.7
1983 1998
1.7
1.7
1983 1998
1983
1155
1984
1090
1985
1044
1986
955
32
1987
807
1988
661
1989
618
1990
549
1991
418
1992
323
1993
270
1994
258
1995
252
1996
239
1997
229
1998
231
() Fernando Clavijo and Susana Valdivieso. Reformas estructurales y poltica macroeconmica, 41.
1994
24
17
(Carlos Slim)
24
25 4
2007 : 145
14 2008 (Bill Gates)
(Warren Buffet) 3
17
17
http://www.forbes.com/2008/03/05/buffett-worlds-richest-cx_mm_0229buffetrichest.html
: 2010. 11.27.
33
2007
1 700 1 1
4.5% 2 20.4 18
19
2008 0 (perfect equality)

100 (perfect inequality)
46.1%
47.2% 45.5% World Bank 2008 : 68-71
1.8
2004

10%
20%
20%
10%
30-40%
40-60%
60-80%
8.3%
12.6%
19.7%
55.1%
39.4%
1.6%
4.3%
World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008, 69.
1.8 10% 40 20
55
20 4
PRI
18
URL http://web.worldbank.org 2010. 11.27.

--
19
34
1.3
PRI
(1982-88) (1988-94) 20 (1994-2000) 3
3 1988
(Jaime Serra)
(Pedro Aspe) (
2006 : 26)
NAFTA NAFTA
1990 6
1991 (fast track)

1992 8 1993
NAFTA 1994 1 21 (De la Garza
Toledo 2003 : 77) NAFTA
NAFTA
20
1994 3 23
PRI (Luis Donaldo Colocio)
PAN (Diego Fernndez de

Cevallos) PRD (Cuauhtmoc Crdenas)
1700 900 400
(Fuente Daz 1996 : 337)
21
NAFTA
NAFTA
(Berumen Arellano 1999: 19)
35

NAFTA
2006
PRI
PRI
PRI
Polticos Dinosaurios (Tcnicos
Filsofos)
1992 : 20
PRI
(Cuauhtmoc Crdenas)
PRI 1988
1987
1988
PRI
PRI
(Rodolfo Gonzlez Guevara)
(Porfirio Muoz Ledo) 1988
22 (Corriente
22
1980 1986
36
Democrtica) 1986
PRI PRI
1987 3 13 PRI
25
PRI PRI
23 1988
Bruhn 1997 : 75-76 ( 2010 : 27)
PRI 1988
PRI PRI
PRI 1988
PRI
1982
PRI 1980
PRI
1.9
1988
(PRI)
51.7%
(FDN)
31.3%
(PAN)
16.8%
() Haber, Stephen, Herbert S. Klein, Noel Maurer, and Kevin J. Middlebrook. Mexico since
1980 , 133.
1988
PRI 7
6
23
(Partido Autntico de la Revolucin Mexicana)

Partido Mexicano Socialista (Partido Socialista de los Trabajadores)
Frente Democrtico Nacional FDNFDN
37
1 (Comisin Federal Electoral)
1.9 51.7% 31.1%

PAN 16.8% Haber et al. 2008 : 133
1990 1993 1994 24 2002 : 18-20
2000 PRI 1980
10 20
1982
PRI 20
1.4
PRI
PRI 1980
1982 PRI
PRI 1988
PRI
PAN 1980 PAN
1994
PRI
24
PRI
1994
1996 1990
(IFE) (TRIFE)
1997 7
( 2002 : 20-21)
38
PAN
PAN
PRI
PAN
PRI PAN PAN

1939
Mizrahi 2003: 17
PAN
1993 : 19
PAN
PAN
1.10 PAN
PAN
1.10
1976 2000 PAN
39
1976
9%
1979
12%
1982
18%
1985
16%
1988
18%
1991
18%
1994
27%
1997
26%
2000
38.1%
15.62%
17.07%
26.69%
43.8%
() Yemike Mizrahi, From Martyrdom to Power-The Partido Accin Nacional in Mexico, 79.
1.10 1980
PAN 1976
PAN 1982
1.10
PAN PAN PRI

PAN
PAN
1982
PAN (Mizrahi 2003 : 72) ( 1993: 26)
1980 PRI
PAN
1983 7
(Luis lvarez) 1958

PRI PAN
32
(Francisco Terrazas) PAN
PRI 1986
40
PAN
1983 PRI
PRI PRI
PRI
Preston and Dillon 2004 : 130-137 3 1989
PAN
(Ernest Ruffo Appel) 25
PAN PRI
PRI PAN
PRI
PAN
PRI
PRI 26
1994
50 Ruiz 1998 : 11
1982
1980 PRI
PAN
25
1986 1992 1998 6
26
Oscar J. Martnez Border people
41

PAN
PRI
PRI
PRI PRI
PRI
PRI NAFTA
Ejrcito Zapatista de Liberacin Nacional
PRI
PAN
PAN
PRI
PAN
PAN
PRI PRI
1982
PAN PRI
PRI
1997

42

PRI
27
28
1997 : 144-145
1994 1988
1986
PRI
1988
PRI
PAN
NAFTA
1994 1 1
PAN
PRI
PRI
PRI
27
28
43
1.5
2006
2006 PRI
PAN
(Felipe Caldern) (Partido de la Revolucin
Democrtica PRD) (Lpez Obrador)
2006
6 2000
2000
PRI PAN
(Vicente Fox)
2000 PRI
PRI PRI PAN
6 1980
PAN
PRD
2006
2006
2006
2007
PRI
44
1982
PRI PRI
1988
2000 1988
PRI 2006
1.11
2006
(PAN)
(PRD)
(PRI)
PAN
PRD
PRI
16
15
14,916,927
14,683,096
9,237,000
35.89%
35.33
22.23%
() Instituto Federal Electoral Website
29
2006 1.11 2006

PAN PRD
PRI
2006
1.12
29
2006
http://www.ife.org.mx/documentos/Estadisticas2006/presidentet/nac.html : 2010.11.27.
URL 1.12 1.13 URL
45
445,057
221,850
200,464
47.37%
23.61%
21.34%
460,717
234,608
171,677
50.24%
25.58%
18.72%
520,671
219,445
338,833
45.17%
18.26%
29.39%
399,476
224,519
245,033
43.10%
24.22%
26.44%
859,303
280,250
483,820
48.95%
15.97%
27.56%
500,799
321.402
313,986
41.30%
26.51%
25.89%
1.13
2006
225,740
618.560
426,841
16.77%
45.97%
31.72%
213,749
546,043
424,524
16.94%
43.27%
33.64%
159,327
507,618
261,775
16.14%
51.43%
26.52%
31,685
507.576
340,357
3.52%
56.33%
37.77%
PAN
1.12
46
30 1.12 6
PAN 40%
50.24% PRD
PRI 1.12
1.13 PRD
PAN
1980
PRI
1980
2006
1980 PRI
1980
30
32 Appendix 345
47
2.1
1
1 2006
PAN
PRD
31
PRI PRI
1980
31
PRI (La Alianza por Mxico)

PAN PRD
48
2.1
( : )
2,483,515
2,292,971
25,455
1,355
4,185,463
3,960,178
62,141
6,381
2,832,790
2,552,273
58,122
2,206
3,002,717
2,495,317
101,034
10,298
10
3,204,255
2,845,811
73,924
96,384
11
2,372,641
1,943,793
127,394
9,323
() CONAPO, ndice de marginacin a nivel localidad 2005
2.2
( : )
23
1,987,521
784,333
419,893
8,629
30
3,100,199
60,553
906,777
563,545
31
3,493,840
484,648
1,458,020
447,209
32
4,201,839
497,807
1,709,879
727,277
2006
2.1
6
(Consejo Nacional de Poblacin CONAPO )
32
32
8 1) 15 2) 15
3) 4)
5) 6) 7) 8)
ndice de marginacin a nivel localidad 2005 Apendix
3 CONAPO 5
1) 2) 3) 4) 5)
49
31
1
2.1 248 3515 229 2971
2.1
5
33
2.2 8 4
34 4
2.2 4
4
1) -2.00348 -1.349442) -1.34944

-1.022423) -1.02242 -0.695404) -0.69540 0.612685) 0.61268
3.22883 CONAPO
33
31 1 1 2
3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10
11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26
27 28 29 30 31
32 Appendix 67
34
8 1) 2) 3) 4) 5)
6) 7) 8)
50
2.3 4
2.3
( : )
( )
(1995-2000)
( )
(2000-2005)
( )
(1995-2000)
(2000-2005)
43,815
73,612
23,000
57,000
52,632
139,616
32,000
78,000
76,764
139,705
53,000
81,000
45,240
89,244
24,000
90,000
()
2.4
INEGI, Conteo de Poblacin y Vivienda 2005
51
( : )
( )
( )
(1995-2000)
( )
(2000-2005)
( )
(1995-2000)

(2000-2005)
230,000
65,000
193,000
59,000
165,000
69,000
114,000
53,000
129,000
67,000
96,000
50,000
139,000
50,000
82,000
44,000
77,000
55,000
58,000
44,000
73,000
68,000
50,000
44,000
()
INEGI, Conteo de Poblacin y Vivienda 2005
2.4
2.4
2.2
52

1980
30
35
2.5
1900
1910
1920
( : )
1930
35
1940
1950

1821
2003 : 107
53
7,583
9,760
23,537
48,327
78,907
226,965
221,682
265,383
275,127
316,271
364,176
510,607
327,784
405,707
401,622
491,792
623,944
846,414
296,938
362,092
393,480
436,425
550,717
720,619
327,937
365,150
336,412
417,491
541,147
740,191
218,948
249,641
286,904
344,039
458,832
718,167
Lorey, United States-Mexico Border Statistics since 1900, 21.
2.6
1900 1950
( : )
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
242
733
1,028
8,384
16,486
59,952
562
6,782
14,842
18,775
64,609
2,738
3,117
13,445
14,842
18,775
64,609
8,218
10,621
19,457
19,669
48,881
112,467
6,548
8,143
14,998
21,636
28,872
57,668
1,915
1,475
2,107
4,840
9,412
34,087
8,347
7,390
9,215
9,733
15,699
45,846
20 2.5
6 1900 1950 2.6
54
2.5 2.6 1900 1950

20
2.13 2.14
1900
242 2005 140
1900 35 1950
280 ( 2.7 )
20
36
1980
2.6 1900
242
37
38
36
1960
40%
1987 : 117-120
37
1903
38
1 19
55
19
39
20
2.7
( : )
1900
62,000
345,000
1910
79,000
471,000
1921
88,000
713,000
1930
134,000
1,029,000
1940
186,000
1,530,000
1950
356,000
2,830,000
() Men in a Developing society- Geographic and Social Mobility in Monterrey Mexico, 41.
2.7 1900 1950

2.6
1952 40
39
Jorge Baln Men in Developing

Country
40
31
1974 1952
29 1974
56
(Territorio Norte de Baja California)
20
1965 (El Programa de
Industrializacin Fronteriza de Mxico)
2.3
3
1980 PRI
1960 1982
1960 PRI
PRI PRI
57
1982
PRI
1966
1966 6
1 (El Programa de Industrializacin Fronteriza de Mxico)

( 1989 : 187)
1960 1968
PRI
41
1960 (maquiladora
exportacin) 42
100%
41
20
1972
42
maquilar
maquila maquilar Maquiladora
( 2000 : 258)
58
1966
1983 NAFTA
2001 43
1966 1983
( 2000 : 258)
1960
PRI
43
NAFTA 2001 1 1
(Programas de Promocin Sectorial PROSEC)

PROSEC
PROSEC (JETRO)
http://www.jetro.go.jp/indexj.html :
2010.11.27.
59
PRI
1982
PRI
2.8
1981 1986
( : )
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
605
588
629
722
789
987
215
197
229
281
319
412
60
87
87
77
85
81
99
152
155
172
189
209
299
36
40
42
46
53
65
75
71
72
77
80
110
29
24
25
30
47
72
() , , 1989, 207.
2.9
1981 1986
( : )
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
130,970
127,050
150,870
199,680
217,540
268,390
23,180
22,230
26,250
35,260
37,650
49,400
17,860
16,620
18,460
23,140
21,380
25,890
49,030
47,790
60,370
82,370
96,560
115,060
7,130
7,300
9,460
11,950
13,810
17,770
25,980
26,500
29,140
37,070
38,340
47,600
3,530
2,550
2,460
4,280
9,800
12,690
() , , 1989, 207.
2.8
2.9 1981 1986

1981 605
1982 588
13 970 12 7050 1983
61
2.8
2.9 1982 588 1983 629

1984 722 1985 789 1986 987
1982 12
7050 1983 15 870 1984 19 9680
1985 21 7540 1986 26 8390
1
PRI
PRI
1
1982
PRI PRI
1982
IMF
1982
62
12
( 2006 :
32-34)
PRI
1 PRI
2.4
1940 1960
63
1
PRI
2.10
( : )
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
25,779,254
34,923,129
48,225,238
66,846,833
81,249,645
97,483,412
3,050,442
4,870,876
6,874,165
8,831,079
8,235,744
8,605,239
Esquivel, Teresa, Ren Flores and Gabriela Ponce. 2006. Dinmica demogrfica y especial de la Zone
Metropolitana del Valle de Mxico, 21.
2.11
( : %)
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
11.83
13.95
14.25
13.21
10.14
8.83
Esquivel, Teresa, Ren Flores and Gabriela Ponce. 2006. Dinmica demogrfica y especial de la Zone
Metropolitana del Valle de Mxico, 21.
2.12
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
6.5
7.2
6.1
6.1
6.1
64
2-4
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.7
2-6
2-8
2-10
, 123.
2.10 1950 2000

2.11
2.12
2.7
2.7
1987: 125
1980
2.2
2.3
65
1940 1960 1
2.13
1960 2005
1960
1970
1980
1990
2005
520,165
870,421
1,177,866
1,660,855
2,844,000
783,378
1,098,720
1,513,731
1,823,606
2,395,000
1,226,793
1,612,525
2,005,477
2,441,873
3,241,000
907,734
1,114,956
1,557,265
1,972,340
2,483,515
1,078,848
1,694,689
2,513,044
3,098,736
4,199,000
1,024,182
1,456,858
1,924,484
2,249,581
3,024,000
2.14
1960 2005 :
1960
1970
1980
1990
2005
152,374
277,306
429,500
698,752
1,410,700
174,540
263,498
341,559
438,377
,855,962
66
37,657
52,108
65,587
105,873
,193,517
262,119
407,370
544,496
789,522
1,313,338
92,327
148,867
201,690
218,413
,355,827
74,140
137,383
194,657
265,663
,526,888
92,627
137,749
188,703
266,055
,462,157
Lorey, United States-Mexico Border Statistics since 1900, 107. Ganster and Lorey, The U.S-Mexican
Border into the Twenty-First century, 126-27.
PRI
1 PRI
2.13 1960 2005

2.14
2.10
1980
2.13 2.14 1980
1982
67
1988
NAFTA
1982 20
1980
(Saskia Sassen)
( 2008 : 367)
1980
1980
68
2.5
2.1
( ) http://www.freemap.jp/north_ameria/na_mexico_kouiki_1.html
2.15
2000
1,291,232
998,841
2001
1,198,942
927,857
2002
1,071,209
827,521
69
( : )
2003
1,062,105
818,400
2004
1,115,230
864,564
2005
1,166,250
894,951
2006
1,202,134
929,682
()
2.16
INEGI, Estadsticas Econmicas.Industria Maquiladora de Exportacin, 2007
2006
( :
308,661
402
248,924
906
187,704
339
97,601
224
86,793
210
72,472
208
48,675
95
26,693
76
20,801
65
10
18,973
42
11
14,957
37
12
13,910
30
13
11,025
37
14
5,662
15
5,223
16
2,987
24
843
18
17
()
2.15 2000 2006

2000
70
110
90
2.15 2.16 2006
2.17
2006 :
( : )
( : )
239,166
284
170,535
577
96,830
134
55,455
17
54,235
134
44,956
77
33,494
96
31,470
47
21,434
42
10
17,323
47
11
15,466
35
12
10,742
116
13
9,443
34
14
6,193
19
15
1,653
18
()
2.17 2.17
2006
11
71
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10
11
1982
72
PRI
1980
1980
1 2 1980
1 2
3.1 44
45
3.1
1980 3.1 1980
1990 10 219 9 450 230 1990

2000 10 450 975 2 520 2000
2008 975 2 1267 1 300
44
(Cumulative causation)
Leach and Bean 2008 : 53-54
1982
45
73
3.1 (
: )
1850
1.3
1870
4.2
1890
7.8
1910
22.2
1930
64.1
1950
45.4
1970
76.0
1980
219.9
1990
450.0
2000
975.2
2008
1267.1
() Pew Hispanic Center Fact Sheet April 15, 2009 46
3.2
2005
949 7779
46
URLhttp://pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/47.pdf 3.3
3.4 : 2010. 11.27.
74
42.0%
19.6%
5.6%
5.4%
2.5%
2.2%
1.9%
1.2%
2.1%
17.5%
1975
10.3%
1975-1985
18.6%
1986-1995
32.2%
1996-2005
39.1%
() Saucedo, Silvia E. Giorguli, Selene Gaspar Olvera, and Paula Leite La migracin mexicana y el mercado
de trabajo estadounidense.Tendencias, perspectivas y oportunidades?,,2007, 158
3.2 2005
42.0 19.6%
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2 1980
75
1982
PRI 1982
3.3
1987 2006
1987-96
2.5%
1997
6.7%
1998
4.9%
1999
3.9%
2000
6.6%
2001
-0.2%
2002
0.8%
2003
1.4%
2004
4.4%
2005
3.0%
2006
3.5%
() International Monetary Fund , World Economic Outlook 2005, 215
1982 PRI
3.1 3.2
1980
1980
1940
1
76
1982
3.1 3.2
1980 1000
1980
3.3 1987
3.1 3.2
1000
PRI PRI
2000 PRI
1
3.4
2008
( : )
77
(301,130
261,828
39,302
(13%)
26,631
(8%)
12,671
(5%)
(87% 47 )
128,169
20,101
12,842
7,259
133,658
19,201
13,789
5,412
51%
49%
52%
43%
35
39.8
42.5
35.4
16,847
10,123
4,035
6,088
53,255
8,343
5,947
2,395
46,280
4,893
3,997
896
48,969
9,124
8,595
529
10%
31%
18%
61%
30%
28%
38%
5%
31,000
25,000
30,000
20,000
40,000
30,000
37,000
23,000
(25
)
(2007 )
(16
)
() Pew Hispanic Center Fact Sheet April 15, 2009
3.3
47
78

1982
2008
3900 3
1 1200
3.4 3.4
500
35.4 42.5
61%
18%
2 ( 2 3000 )
3 ( 3 7 ) 1
79
1 830 ( 1 1250 )
3.5
35.4
61%
57% 43%
3 7
2 3
80
3.6
2008
( : )
122,555
23,616
16,014
7,602
6,899
1,496
828
668
5.3%
6.0%
4.9%
8.1%
10,476
3,446
1,304
2,142
12,988
3,030
1,880
1,150
24,606
4,109
3,016
1,092
74,485
13,031
9,814
3,217
45,974
6,427
5,855
527
18,992
5,367
3,254
2,113
31,972
4,069
3,242
828
6,714
3,188
1,096
2,091
18,902
4,565
2,567
1,997
% (
%)
2008
81
1942 1964
48
3.6
3.6
49
48
1942
1942 1947 5
1964 500
(Quintero 1993 : 20)
49
82
50
3.4
2
(Hernndez-coss 2005 : 4)
3.7 1999 2008
50
( : )
http://www.conapo.gob.mx/publicaciones/migraciongiorgul.pdf
: 2010.11.27.
83
1999
5,910
+5.0%
2000
6,573
+11.2%
2001
8,895
+35.3%
2002
9,814
+10.3%
2003
15,041
+53.3%
2004
18,331
+21.9%
2005
21,689
+18.3%
2006
25,567
+17.9%
2007
26,076
+2.0%
2008
25,145
-3.6%
() Las Remesas Familiares en 2008, Banco de Mxico, 2007. 51
3.7 1999
2008 3.7
2007 2007 2%
2008
127
260 Prez
2008 : 17
3.8
2008
( : )
25,145
-3.6%
2,458
+2.7%
2,325
-1.2%
51
http://www.banxico.org.mx/documents/%7BB7CBCFAF-AB7D-BE65-F78F-6827D524C418%7D.pdf
: 2010.11.28. URL 3.8 URL
84
2,096
-3.5%
1,943
-3.3%
1,621
-6.7%
1,568
+0.8%
1,457
+2.5%
1,402
-1.2%
1,106
-19.6%
10
940
-13.5%
11
800
-11.7%
12
758
-0.3%
13
678
-10.5%
14
621
-1.0%
15
512
-1.9%
16
489
-5.3%
()
Las Remesas Familiares en 2008, Banco de Mxico, 2007.
3.8 2008 16
3.8
1980
1994 OECD
85
86
Mexicos Drug Cartels (Colleen
Cook) The National Drug Intelligence Center
90
Cook 2007 : 4
( 4.3 )
4.1
2
( )
(
)
87
2
1982
1982
3 1980
1993 1994 1993

1994
1993 9
(Operation Blockade)
1994 10
INS
(Operation Gatekeeper)
88
Mssey and Capoferro 2008 :
30-32
PRI
89

52
PRI
1980 1000
1990
5 53 1 (Crtel de Tijuana) 2
52
1970 (tringulo
crtico)
1975 87 95
(Toro 1995 : 13-16)
53
(Los Zetas) (La
90
(Crtel de Jurez) 3 (Crtel del Golfo)
4 (Crtel de Sinaloa) 5)
(Crtel de los Beltrn Leyva )
(Federacin)
( ) 2008
( )
1990
Familia Michoacana) (Grupo

Aeromvil de Fuerzas Especiales) 1990
Cook 2007 : 7-8
DEA (Drug Enforcement Administration)

Beittel 2009 : 5-6
91
4.2
1 2006 6
2006 :
132
2009 5 Mexicos Drug-Related Violence S (June S.
Beittel) 90
Beittel 2009 : 1
1990
92
4.1
1990
, 32,100
136,900
, 77,000
1991
, 30,000
222,700
, 78,000
1992
, 37,100
223,900
, 80,300
1993
, 39,700
155,500
, 84,400
1994
, 44,700
165,300
, 89,800
1995
, 50,900
183,600
, 85,000
1996
, 67,300
174,700
, 75,100
1997
, 79,500
130,200
, 70,100
1998
101,800
, 95,600
, 52,900
1999
122,500
, 69,200
, 22,800
2000
135,200
, 60,975
, 13,400
( : )
() de Mola, El negocio, 53.
(Supply Reduction)
(Demand Reduction)
(Air Bride Denial Program)
4.1 1990 2000
4.1
1990 4
93
1 10 2000
2 8
1990
3 1990
3000
94
El Negocio
(Carlos Loret de Mola)
1 2500
1 4 5
1 17
70 (de Mola
2001 : 81)
2009
(Joaqun Guzmn) 701
10 54
2009 5 10 1 28
55
2007 127
150
250 (Prez
2008 : 17) (Beittel 2009 : 8)
4.3
54
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/10/billionaires-2009-richest-people_Joaquin-Guzman-Loera_FS0Y.html
: 2010.11.27.
55
http://www.business-i.jp/news/special-page/oxford/200905300004o.nwc
: 2010.11.27.
95
3000
4.2 2006
4.2
( : )
2006
1,500
2007
2,700
2008
5,630
Mexicos Drug-RelatedViolence, 10.
4.2 2008
5,630 522
2008 60
1 2
3 Beittel 2009 : 9-13
3
1980 1000
96
56
(Mrida Initiative)
2007 3
CNN
4.3
2008 12 ( : )
20.1
15.2
6.2
56
100 ( 2003 : 214-15)
97
1.9
1.1
57
0.6
0.2
() Results from the 2008 National Survey on Drug Use and Health : National Findings, 16.
1960 1200
2006 : 125-126
2008 2010
75.7% 57.3%
42.7% 24.3% 18.4
26 1130
12 17 230 18 25 650 U.S.
Department of Health and Human Services 2009 : 16-19
190
57
98
4.4
PRI PAN
PRI PAN
PRI
(Raul Salinas) 58
PRI
PRI PAN
2006
PAN PRI
PRI PAN
58
1994 (Raul Salinas) PRI
99
PAN
PRI
1980
71 PRI 2000
2006
100
1980
101
1982
PRI 1994
NAFTA NAFTA
2000
2000
2 3 4
102
PAN
1980
103
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110
Appendix
Appendix 1
2000 2005
( : )
111
1
2

417,000
193,000
59,000
14,007,000
2,844,0 00
21
300,000
40,000
188,000
45,000
491,000
121,000
2,410,000
8,721,000
7,110,000
522
37,000
114,000
29,000
53,000
1,819,000
3,024,000
623
37,000
113,000
26,000
107,000
950,000
6,752,0 00
24
36,000
101,000
15,000
28,000
1,065,000
1,135,000
97,000
5,383,000
25
33,000
96,000
36,000
50,000
1,509,000
4,199,000
26
10
32,000
82,000
78,000
44,000
3,115,000
3,241,000
27
11
28,000
80.000
28
12
27,000
69,000
21,000
26,000
1755,000
,598,000
29
13
27,000
62,000
14,000
53,000
4 568,000
,894,000
29
14
24,000
59,000
90,000
69,000
4,293,000
3,966,000
31
15
23,000
59,000
57,000
92,000
1,990,000
2,608,000
32
16
22,000
58,000
26,000
44,000
1,368,000
2,395,000
1,680,000
2,346,000
17
57,000
18
53,000
81,000
3,506,000
19
50,000
44,000
2,495,000
20
43,000
11,000
512,000
1,612,000
112
Appendix 2
2000 2005
( : )
Appendix 3
2006
191,789
88,964
96,161
46,83%
21,72%
23,48%
445,057
221,850
200,464
47.37%
23.61%
21.34%
62,127
77,875
29,874
34,36%
43,06%
16,52%
93,563
95,881
83,284
31,63%
32,41%
28,15%
399,476
224,519
245,033
43.10%
24.22%
26.44%
107,490
61,221
76,363
41,75%
23,78%
29,66%
213,749
546,043
424,524
16,94%
43,27%
33,64%
520,671
219,445
338,833
45.17%
18.26%
29.39%
113
10
11
12
1,321,210
2,808,422
412,564
27,36%
58,16%
8,54%
253,115
127,396
152,090
44,68%
22,49%
26,85%
1,154,852
300,793
368,293
58,94%
15,35%
18,80%
159,327
507,618
261,775
16,14%
51,43%
26,52%
Appendix 4
2006
251,772
385,750
235,926
26,63%
40,79%
24,95%
1,426,237
555,239
698,379
49,36%
19,22%
24,17%
1,788,443
2,462,614
1,029,038
31,08%
43,32%
18,10%
509,046
608,813
280,178
34,44%
41,19%
18,96%
225,259
311,757
110,535
31,9%
44,15%
15,65%
68,925
152,456
122,840
18,90%
41,81%
33,69%
19
859,303
280,250
483,820
48,95%
15,97%
27,56%
20
225,740
618,560
426,841
13
14
15
16
17
18
114
21
22
16,77%
45,97%
31,72%
742,736
638,718
459,237
37,49%
32,24%
23,18%
321,912
159,676
132,279
48,95%
24,28%
20,11%
Appendix 5
2006
23
110,737
147,294
104,410
28,86%
38.39%
27,22%
24
460,707
204,015
206,390
48,61%
21,53%
21,78%
25
362,082
301,040
262,639
37,04%
30,79%
26,87%
460,717
234,608
171,677
50,24%
25,58%
18,72%
31,685
507,576
340,357
3,52%
56,33%
37,77%
500,799
321,402
313,986
41,30%
26,51%
25,89%
140,128
180,487
59,672
34,16%
44,00%
14,55%
1,002,862
1,032,689
724,523
34,21%
35,23%
24,72%
362,519
124,544
258,575
26
27
28
29
30
31
115
32
46,l7%
15,86%
32,93%
164,892
184,581
126,445
31,88%
35,68%
24,44%
Appendix 6
2005
( : )
8,720,24
8,562,717
2,483,515
2,292,971
25,455
1,355
1,058,392
860,539
12,067
650
4,185,463
3,960,178
62,141
6,381
563,906
371,979
10,129
316
2,832,790
2,552,273
58,122
2,206
6,712,140
5,280,271
193,794
33,715
3,002,717
2,495,317
101,034
10,298
503,503
424,555
18,858
1,825
10
3,204,255
2,845,811
73,924
96,384
11
2,372,641
1,943,793
127,394
9,323
12
2,591,421
1,605,905
166,200
43,544
13,632
23
3
2
5
6
116
13
1,607,629
860,899
129,296
2,450
14
1,490,829
967,098
76,524
49,052
1,064,922
382,614
92,444
739
49,722
34,587
15
16
941,226
500,111
17
1,357,545
654,218
126,617
7,154
14,000,600
9,316,941
1,285,294
95,544
18
Appendix 7
2005
( : )
19
1,127,879
759,890
139,254
9,863
2,610,965
770,628
48,780
20
4,875,923
21
1,591,478
900,752
255,520
31,175
22
3,944,766
1,400,624
715,637
73,002
23
1,987,521
784,333
419,893
8,629
24
745,225
367,594
181,481
13,410
25
2,341,796
932,296
568,872
87,701
26
2,394,685
1,100,472
600,871
92,631
27
1,812,911
787,727
564,953
15,940
28
7,066,248
2,308,998
1,983,545
499,495
117
29
5,374,797
1,848,879
1,736,914
228,139
30
3,100,199
60,553
906,777
563,545
31
3,493,840
484,648
1,458,020
447,209
32
4,201,839
497,807
1,709,879
727,277
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Social Change in Contemporary Mexico and Its Northern Border Area

1.10 1976 2000 PAN

2.13 1960 2005

2.14 1960 2005

3.7 1999 2008

Appendix 2 2000 2005

Troublesome Border (Oscar Martnez)

(Martnez 2006 : 101)

() World Bank, 2009 World Development Indicators, 14-16.

Free Trade Agreement NAFTA)

(Joan Anderson) (James Gerber)

( : Mexicanos : A History of Mexicans in the United States ) 19

(James R. Curtis) The Mexican Border Cities

1900 7 1062 1930 68 3681

() INEGI, Conteo de Poblaci n y Vivienda 2005

0.2 (Instituto Nacional

de Estadstica Geografa e Informtica INEGI) 2006 5 24 Conteo

Partnership Agreement EPA)

Nacional Revolucionario) 1938

Stephen D. Morris Corrupcin y poltica en

(International Monetary Fund IMF)

2006 : 21-23 1970

1974 1981 45%

1.5 1967 1989

1.6 1980 1989

The World Bank, Trends in Developing Economies 1990, 362.

The World Bank, Trends in Developing Economies 1990, 362.

2008 0 (perfect equality)

World Bank, World Development Indicators 2008, 69.

URL http://web.worldbank.org 2010. 11.27.

(1982-88) (1988-94) 20 (1994-2000) 3

1991 (fast track)

Toledo 2003 : 77) NAFTA

PAN (Diego Fernndez de

(Berumen Arellano 1999: 19)

(Partido Autntico de la Revolucin Mexicana)

1 (Comisin Federal Electoral)

1.9 51.7% 31.1%

1990 1993 1994 24 2002 : 18-20

2000 PRI 1980

PAN 1980 PAN

PRI PAN PAN

1976 2000 PAN

PAN PAN PRI

PAN (Mizrahi 2003 : 72) ( 1993: 26)

(Luis lvarez) 1958

1986 1992 1998 6

Democrtica PRD) (Lpez Obrador)

PRI PRI PAN

() Instituto Federal Electoral Website

2006 1.11 2006

URL 1.12 1.13 URL

() Instituto Federal Electoral Website

() Instituto Federal Electoral Website

PRI (La Alianza por Mxico)

() CONAPO, ndice de marginacin a nivel localidad 2005

() CONAPO, ndice de marginacin a nivel localidad 2005

2.1 248 3515 229 2971

1) -2.00348 -1.349442) -1.34944

INEGI, Conteo de Poblacin y Vivienda 2005

INEGI, Conteo de Poblacin y Vivienda 2005

Lorey, United States-Mexico Border Statistics since 1900, 21.