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Understanding Regulation
Ministry Of Finance on June 4, 2010 made it mandatory for every listed company to have a minimum level of public shareholding of 25 % instead of the then 10%. To remain listed the companies were given 3 years to comply to the rule. MNCs listed on Indian bourses now have one and half year to comply from the current date. Conclusion is either the MNC promoters have to offload their shareholding (which they are reluctant) or increase their shareholding to qualify for Voluntary delisting. MNC were forced to get themselves listed in 1970 and will take this opportunity to get delisted delisted.
Nag. Agrichem g g Joonktolle Tea Khoday India Wheels India Ind Bank Housing Sundaram Clayton HMT Fortis Health. Best Eastern Hot U P Hotels Mahindra Holiday Jaypee Infratec. Mundra Port Gammon Infra. Vintron Info. DPSC TRIL Essar Ports E P t Piccadily Sugar Batliboi Brady & Morris BGR Energy Sys. Muthoot Finance Jolly Board Shalimar Wires Chettinad Cement
Warren Tea Aunde India Indag Rubber Rama Phosphates Godrej Inds. Marathon Nextgen DLF Omaxe Orient Press Berger Paints Hubtown Modern India Suashish Diamond Wipro English Ind.Clay Vippy Industries D B Corp Sun S TV N t Network k Plethico Pharma. Pentokey Organy Surat Textile Madras Fert. Aroni Commercial Aeonian Invest. India Cem. Cap. L&T Fin.Holdings
Falcon Tyres y Godrej Propert. Bajaj Corp JSW Energy JP Power Ven. Gokaldas Exports Puravankar.Proj. Cimmco Steelco Gujarat IVRCL Assets Sah Petroleums Essar Shipping Monnet Sugar Morgan Ventures Tata Tele. Mah. Oberoi Realty Adani Enterp. Eros Intl.Media E I tl M di Hindustan Media Swan Energy Reliance Power Muthoot Cap.Serv Vaarad Vent. Prestige Estates Windsor Machines Alfa Laval (I) Kennametal India Timken India Fairfield Atlas Hella India Wendt India GMM Pfaudler Ineos ABS (India BOC India Elantas Beck Nitta Gelatin Honeywell Auto Sharp India Oracle Fin.Serv. Gillette India Astrazeneca Phar Saint-Gob. Sekur Thomas Cook (I) Novartis India Blue Dart Exp. Fres.Kabi Onco. 3M India Singer India Neyveli Lignite St Bk of Mysore MMTC STC Hind.Copper Andrew Yule & Co FACT Natl.Fertilizer RCF
Honeywell Auto. Elantas Beck* Timken Fresenius Kabi Onco. Ineos ABS Blue Dart* BOC (I)* Fairfield Atlas* Kennametal (I)* Astrazeneca* A t * Alfa Laval*
Source: Bloomberg.
1867 1465 187 109 598 1613 304 79 812 1552 2760
2315 1761 209 108 592 1578 290 72 746 1284 1609
240 19 0.5 2 60 15 7 2 9 34 29
13% 1% 0% 2% 10% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1%
14 36 21 94 15 40 25 10 16 49 38
3 7 3 6 3 7 2 3 5 22 10
81% 89% 80% 90% 83% 81% 89% 84% 88% 90% 89%
*The company has already made an open offer attempt for delisting in p p y y p p g past. # BV, P/E, P/BV , cash/share, promoters holdings and cash with parent are based on CY10 Ann. Rpt. for all the companies mentioned above.
Honeywell Automation
Honeywell Automation- market leader in Electronic Instrumentation and Process control
6000
CMP: Rs
1867
equipment industry- is exhibiting sales growth of ~20% p.a. over last 4 yrs. Strong Fortune 500 parentage- Honeywell International Inc. listed on NYSE- hence probability of delisting Indian Op.s is high. Cash rich parent- Honeywell International Inc.- with about $ 2.65 bn (Rs 13714 cr) cash; the cost of acquisition of the minority shares as per the formula comes to be around Rs 389 cr (just 3% of the cash held by parent). Acceptance of higher buyback price cannot be ruled out post the reverse book building exercise. exercise Fundamentally, the stock is quoting at high discount to the 5 yr avg. PE, thus indicating that the stock is a safe investment bet with decent margin of safety.
Financial Summary Fi i lS
Year End CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
Source: Bloomberg.
10.0 X
15.0 X
20.0 X
25.0 X
30.0 X
Source: Capitaline.
Amt required. for Buyback (Rs cr) Cash on books of Parent (Rs cr) Cost of buyback as % of the Cash with Parent
389 13714 3%
P/E 39 12 23 16 14
P/BV 13 3 6 5 3
EV/EBITDA 17 19 6 9 13
ROCE (%) 37 31 30 35 22
Elantas Beck
Elantas Beck- the subsidiary of Elanta Gmbh and operating in Electrical Insulation field. The parent Elantas Gmbh- the member of Altana Gr. is unlisted along with all its sister concerns and parent. Fundamentally, the stock is trading at stretched valuation, The company has made a delisting attempt in Jan 2010 at an floor price of Rs 219.10/share, which failed to enthuse the minority shareholders. Further the board had approved an enhanced price of 330 as the offer price, which would have been the minimum price paid to the shareholders, The open offer failed as the requisite shares (50% of the Non promoter shareholding) were not tendered. Moreover, the discovered price through reverse book building was at Rs 600.
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
CMP: Rs
1,465
Financial Summary Fi i lS
Year End CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
Source: Bloomberg
EBITDA 26 29 28 45 48
PAT 17 20 20 32 32
EPS 21 26 25 40 41
P/E 19 7 19 21 36
P/BV 4 1 3 5 7
Ja n M a -0 6 y -0 Se 6 p J a -0 6 n M a -0 7 y Se -07 p J a -0 7 n M a -0 8 y -0 Se 8 pJ a 08 n M a -0 9 y -0 Se 9 pJ a 09 n M a -1 0 y Se -10 pJ a 10 n M a -1 1 y -1 Se 1 pJ a 11 n -1 2
10.0 X
15.0 X
20.0 X
25.0 X
30.0 X
EV/EBITDA 11 10 3 7 13
ROCE (%) 24 24 19 26 22
Timken (I)
Timken India- 80% subsidiary of Timken Inc., is a niche player in bearing segment with strong support from the parent. It manufactures tapered roller bearings for MCV/HCV/Tractors/Railways etc and supplies to OEMs plus meets the global requirements of Timken group. The cash outgo on account of the buyback offer at the floor price calculated will be just around 6% of the cash chest available with the parent. Hence a higher price above the floor price cannot be ruled out. Fundamentally, the stock is trading at slight discount to average P/E of last 5 years.
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
CMP: Rs
187
Source: Capitaline.
Amt required for Buyback (Rs cr) Cash on books of Parent (Rs cr) Cost of buyback as % of the Cash with Parent
Financial Summary Fi i lS
Year End CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
Source: Bloomberg
EBITDA 64 61 72 43 71
PAT 38 37 53 33 51
EPS 6 6 8 5 8
BV 32 38 47 52 60
P/E 27 10 17 38 21
P/BV 5 2 3 4 3
266 4538 6%
EV/EBITDA 15 4 20 16
ROCE (%) 20 17 20 10 14
CMP: Rs
109
Financial Summary Fi i lS
Year End CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
Source: Bloomberg
BV 21 28 18 16 17
P/BV 4 1 8 8 6
Ap rAu 06 g -0 De 6 c A p -0 6 r-0 Au 7 gD e 07 c A p -0 7 r-0 Au 8 gD e 08 cAp 08 rAu 09 gD e 09 cAp 09 r-1 Au 0 gD e 10 cAp 10 r-1 Au 1 gD e 11 cAp 11 r-1 2
10.0 X
15.0 X
20.0 X
25.0 X
30.0 X
Source: Capitaline.
Amt required for Buyback (Rs cr) Cash on books of Parent (Rs cr) Cost of buyback as % of the Cash with Parent
172 5173 3%
EV/EBITDA 40 415 73 20
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Ineos ABS
BASF and Ineos has transferred their styrenics business in a 50:50 JV named Styrolution. The new promoters of Ineos ABS had announced an open offer at Rs 606.81 in Oct 2011 under takeover code. Operating in the ABS resins business widely used in Automobiles, Home Appliances, Business machines and office automation segments, Ineos ABS is poised for growth. With current promoter holding of 83 33% we feel that the company will have come up with 83.33%, another open offer to comply for the MPS norm if the current open offer fails to tender 100% of the non promoter shares. Since, the new JV is still in formation stage, the cash position and the growth plans of the parent are yet not clear. Fundamentally, the stock is trading at slight premium to the 5 yr avg. PE. The benefits of restructuring and new parent are yet to be accrued in the stock price.
Financial Summary Fi i lS
Year End CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
Source: Bloomberg
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
CMP: Rs
598
Source: Capitaline.
EBITDA 54 64 50 87 115
PAT 27 35 18 49 70
EPS 15 20 10 28 40
P/E 14 5 18 14 15
P/BV 2 1 1 3 3
10.0 X
15.0 X
20.0 X
25.0 X
30.0 X
EV/EBITDA 6 7 3 3 4
ROCE (%) 15 17 8 19 23
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Blue Dart
Having acquired Blue Dart in 2004, the parent DHL has enhanced its presence in Indian logistics industry. The logistics industry in India is still in fledgling state with tremendous scope for growth. Blue Dart had embarked on delisting process of the stock way back in Aug. 2006 @ Rs 550/share but failed to get a consensus. The cash cost of buyback at calculated price comes to be ~3% of the cash held by the parent. Derive Trading Pvt. Ltd (5.5% stake), SBI Mutual Fund (4.72% stake) and IDFC Equity Fund (2% stake) hold key to success of open offer, if any. Fundamentally, the stock is richly valued as it is trading at premium to 5 yr avg PE.
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
CMP: Rs
1,613
Source: Capitaline.
Amt required for Buyback (Rs cr) Cash on books of Parent (Rs cr) Cost of buyback as % of the Cash with Parent
Financial Summary Fi i lS
Year End CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
Source: Bloomberg
PAT 51 71 78 61 95
EPS 22 30 33 26 40
P/E 34 15 22 43 40
P/BV 7 3 4 6 7
10.0 X
15.0 X
20.0 X
25.0 X
30.0 X
689 22874 3%
EV/EBITDA 12 13 7 15 17
ROCE (%) 23 25 22 14 19
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BOC (I)
BOC (I)- subsidiary of Germany based Linde Gr. is the largest Industrial gas stock supplier in India. BOC India had unveiled buyback offer at Rs 225.29/share in Jan, 2011 but failed to garner sufficient response The discovered price of the shares, determined through a reverse book building process was Rs 600/share in the Jan, 2011 open offer. With cash chest of Euro 580 mn (Rs 3902 cr) the parent Linde Gr is in strong wicket for carry cr), Gr., out the delisting of the stock. At current buyback floor price, the cash outgo happens to be just 7% of the total cash holding of the parent. Higher buyback price in the range of the book building price near to 2011 open offer cannot be ruled out.
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
CMP: Rs
304
Amt required for Buyback (Rs cr) Cash on books of Parent (Rs cr) Cost of buyback as % of the Cash with Parent
Financial Summary Fi i lS
Year End CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
Source: Bloomberg
PAT 76 45 80 53 94
EPS 16 9 10 6 11
P/E 13 14 20 57 25
P/BV 3 2 2 3 2
10.0 X
15.0 X
20.0 X
25.0 X
30.0 X
Source: Capitaline.
260 3902 7%
EV/EBITDA 9 10 14 12 19
ROCE (%) 28 14 12 5 9
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Fairfield Atlas
Fairfield Atlas- an automobile and transmission gear manufacturer supplying to large OEMs. The promoter TH Licensing holds 83.91%. Reliance Capital Trustee company (minority shareholder) holds another 5.51%. The company had made an unsuccessful buyback attempt in July 2007 @ Rs 81/share. The parent Oerlikon who controls Fairfield through TH Licensing is cash rich with cash and cash equivalents of USD 0.7 bn (Rs 3762 cr). The cost of acquisition of the minority shareholders at the floor price arrived is less than 1% of the cash held by the promoter. The stock is currently trading at steep discount to 5 yr. avg. PE, hence a safe bet bet.
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
CMP: Rs
79
Amt required for Buyback (Rs cr) Cash on books of Parent (Rs cr) Cost of buyback as % of the Cash with Parent
Financial Summary Fi i lS
Year End CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
Source: Bloomberg
EBITDA 17 27 20 11 26
PAT 7 14 2 15 18
EPS 3 5 1 6 6
BV 2 7 8 14 20
P/E 37 5 55 12 10
P/BV 41 3 5 5 3
10.0 X
15.0 X
20.0 X
25.0 X
30.0 X
Source: Capitaline.
31 3762 0.8%
EV/EBITDA 15 7 5 13 7
14
Kennametal (I)
Operating in highly lucrative and high growth tungsten carbide tool making segment, Kennametal (I) has created a niche for itself. The US parent Kennametal has attempted an unsuccessful bid to delist the Indian subsidiary in Jan 2011 @ Rs 514.98 but could not get the requisite support from the minority shareholders. Since, the cash with US parent ($204 mn) happens to be ~5x the cost of delisting at the calculated price, very high delisting price would be ruled out. Fundamentally, the stock is trading at slight discount to the 5 yr avg. PE, hence it happens to be another safe bet for investment investment.
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
CMP: Rs
812
Source: Capitaline.
Amt required for Buyback (Rs cr) Cash on books of Parent (Rs cr) Cost of buyback as % of the Cash with Parent
Financial Summary Fi i lS
Year End CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
Source: Bloomberg
EBITDA 66 93 50 87 138
PAT 42 54 28 52 89
EPS 19 25 13 24 40
P/E 26 6 22 28 16
P/BV 6 1 2 5 5
10.0 X
15.0 X
20.0 X
25.0 X
30.0 X
EV/EBITDA 18 4 4 11 11
ROCE (%) 24 24 11 18 30
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Astrazeneca Pharma
The parent had initiated the Voluntary delisting process way back in June 2010 @ Rs 586/share but failed to get Sp. Resolution through postal ballot. Astrazeneca (I)- part of the US listed company Astrazeneca is a successful Pharma co. with flourishing business, good growth outlook in future. The parent holds cash of the tune of $ 11 bn and the cost of acquisition of the minority shares of the Indian arm comes to be about $64 mn (0.6% of the cash chest). Although, fundamentally the stock looks to be richly valued, high delisting price cannot be ruled.
1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
CMP: Rs
1,552
Source: Capitaline.
Amt required for Buyback (Rs cr) Cash on books of Parent (Rs cr) Cost of buyback as % of the Cash with Parent
Financial Summary Fi i lS
Year End CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
Source: Bloomberg
EBITDA 75 92 114 90 83
PAT 49 61 74 58 51
EPS 19 25 30 23 21
BV 57 64 46 58 72
P/E 39 20 32 57 49
P/BV 13 8 20 23 22
10.0 X
15.0 X
20.0 X
25.0 X
30.0 X
EV/EBITDA 17 10 10 25 -
ROCE (%) 41 54 54 44 -
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Alfa Laval
Alfa Laval has already embarked on delisting process of the stock. It had informed the exchanges on Sept. 16, 2011 about the parent Alfa Laval AB, Swedens decision of seeking voluntary delisting. Sp. Resolution for voluntary delisting of equity shares has been passed with requisite majority. The parent has communicated the minority shareholders about their willingness to accept equity shares tendered in the delisting offer at a price of Rs 2850/share The cash cost of acquisition comes to be 25% of the cash held by the parent. We feel that the stock is richly valued as far as fundamentals are concerned. Only upside that can come is if the Reverse Book building price discovery is way high from the floor price and the company accepts it.
2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
CMP: Rs
2,760
Source: Capitaline.
Amt required for Buyback (Rs cr) Cash on books of Parent (Rs cr) Cost of buyback as % of the Cash with Parent
Financial Summary Fi i lS
Year End CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10
Source: Bloomberg
EPS 38 50 50 68 60
P/E 29 19 25 18 38
P/BV 9 6 7 6 10
EV/EBITDA 13 15 11 10 13
ROCE (%) 31 36 31 36 27
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Caveat
The stocks are volatile given the illiquid nature, hence it is advised to accumulate over a period of time. As A most of th stocks are richly valued, any attempt b th parent t dil t th i shareholding i remain t f the t k i hl l d tt t by the t to dilute their h h ldi i.e. i listed, could lead to change in price. The report is dependent on the regulatory deadline, any extension of which can alter the investment hypothesis.
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Appendix
Few highlights of New Voluntary Delisting Norms are as follows: The floor price for delisting shall be determined by calculating the average of weekly high and low of closing prices during past 26 weeks and 2 weeks preceding the date on which the recognized stock exchanges were notified. The higher price among the above two would be taken as delisting price. The open offer would be considered a success only when the share holding of the promoter with shares accepted through eligible bids crosses 90% of the total shares issued or when it reaches higher than the total of aggregate % of pre-offer promoter shareholding and 50% of the offer size. The shareholders approval should be sought from the shareholders via postal ballot in case the exit opportunity be given to the shareholders. The votes cast by the public shareholders in favour of the delisting proposal should be at least 2 times of numbers cast against it. Under the Regulations, the Promoters are not bound to accept the Offer Price, as may be determined by the Book Building Process. If the promoters do not accept the price arising out of bidding, then the promoter will be required to comply with the clause 40A of the Listing agreement (i.e. MPS of 25%) within 6 months of closing of bidding process).
ENAM Securities Direct 19
Appendix
We have covered those MNC stocks where the promoter shareholdings have more than 80% and hence the probability of them increasing it further increases. The stocks like GMM Pfaulder, Cambridge Soln., 3M, Singer, Novartis loose out. Nitta Gelatin being co- promoted by Japanese Nitta Gelatin and KSIDC also moves out. Wendt India is a disputed case as Carborandom owns about 40% stake in the company. Gillette (I) and OFSS are also excluded, although they can be delisting candidates. We calculated the expected target price as per the formula discussed above (i.e. Average of weekly high and low for last 26 weeks ending Jan. 06, 2011) and compared with the CMP to decide whether it is worth investing in the stock. The other condition (Average of weekly high and low for 2 weeks preceding the date on which the recognized stock exchanges are informed) will be contingent g g g on the event. Hence, this condition becomes Not Relevant (NR) as on date for arriving at the floor price of delisting.
ENAM Securities Direct
Alfa Laval (I) Astrazeneca Pharma Blue Dart Exp. BOC India Elantas Beck Fairfield Atlas Honeywell Auto Ineos ABS (India Kennametal India Fresenius Kabi Onco. Timken India
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Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Enam Securities Direct Private Limited Privileged Client Group. Affiliates of Enam Securities Direct Private Limited focused on Institutional Equities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating and target price of the Affiliates research report. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent. 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Disclaimer
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Scrip Name Alfa-Laval (India) Ltd Astrazeneca Pharma India Ltd Blue Dart Express Ltd Elantas Beck India Ltd Fairfield Atlas Ltd Gillette India Ltd Honeywell Automation India Ltd Ineos ABS (India) Ltd Kennametal India Ltd Fresenius Kabi Onco Timken India Ltd BOC India Ltd
Broking Relationship No No No No No No No No No No No No
Firm Holding No No No No No No No No No No No No
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