Nhn qua cc th h

Phm Hu Trc

hn vo bin ng ca cc lp tui qua dng thi gian c th hu ch cho nhng suy gm v ngy mai. l ch ch ca bi vit ny.

C nhiu cch nh ngha th h, th h theo bin c lch s, qua cc chuyn bin x hi, qua cc lp tui hay theo th t dng h. Trong sinh hc, th h l thi gian t khi ngi m sanh con u lng cho n khi con gi ca b ta sanh con ln th nht. Theo thng k M nm 2007 thi gian ny l 25,2 nm, Anh quc nm 2004 l 27,4 nm. Nghin cu v th h tc l tm cc c tnh ring ca mt lp tui ty theo hon cnh lch s vn minh, x hi, vn ha, kinh t, a d, tuy nhin khng phi v th m c nhn trong th h hon ton ng nht. Cng khng c mt gii hn nht nh v thi im hay thi gian, m thng c s trng tro gia cc th h. William Strauss v Neil Hove trong quyn Generations (ISBN 0-68811912-3, 1991) nghin cu v dn tc Anglo-American trong vng 500 nm, cn c vo cc bin chuyn x hi, cho rng cc th h vn chuyn theo tng chu k m ng gi l saeculum. Mi saeculum di 90 nm gm c bn th h, mi th h chng 22 nm. Cc th h ny chuyn mnh ty theo cc khc quanh vn ha x hi (xin xem ph bn cui bi). Ti Canada, cng trong nm 1991, Douglas Coupland xut bn quyn Generation X, Tales For An Accelerated Culture, danh t th h X, ri Y, Z c dng ch cc th h n sau th h baby-boomer. Trong th k XX, cc nh x hi hc phn chia v t tn cho cc th h, ln lt nh sau:: . G.I. Generation hay Greatest Generation (19011924) l th h tham d vo th chin th hai. . Th h im lng (1925-1942) cng gi l Traditionalist, con ca thi
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k khng hong kinh t 1929. . Th h Baby Boom (1943-1960), thi k hu chin khi t l sinh sn gia tng, c nhiu bin chuyn x hi, th h ny chi b cc gi tr c, ti nh ngha li gi tr x hi c truyn. . Th h X (1961-1981) cng gi l th h 13, hay l th h Baby Busters, quyn li x hi thit thi so vi baby-boomers. . Th h Y (1982-2000), Millenium, GeNext, l con ca th h boomers . Th h Z (2000 - ?? ) New Silent, Gen I, Internet Gen. or Net Gen., Digital Natives, Gen Tech . Th h alpha, A - i vi ngi Vit Nam hi ngoi, tng ng vi X l th h mt ri, trong nc tng ng vi Y l th h 8x v 9x. - Th h Y Trung Hoa gi l bt thp k th h hay Little Emperors, th h Tu ny lc quan v tng lai, tiu th nhiu, c c kinh doanh, mun bin nc Tu thnh cng quc. V chnh sch hn ch sinh sn mi gia nh ch c php c mt con, ngi Trung Hoa ch gi bo thai li khi bit s c con trai, gy ra tnh trng trai tha gi thiu kh trm trng; hin c ti 40 triu thanh nin Tu khng ly c v. - i Hn th h t tn theo cc bin ng chnh tr, th h dn ch 1960 chng L Tha Vn, th h 1964 chng ho c vi Nht, th h 1969 chng ch tng thng 3 nhim k. n c th h c lp 1947, th h Indian boomers 1960, th h Ge, th h X pht trin kinh t k thut. ** Hn khng th no c mt mu ngi cho mi lp tui, cc th h mi ni mi lc cng khng hon ton ng u, nhng v truyn thng v giao dch ton cu cng ngy cng mau chng, nh hng h tng cc ni trn a cu lan rng, t c nhiu im tng t so snh.. Ta c th nhn vo th h u M c mt nhn nh khi qut v cc cc th h trong thi k va qua. . Th h traditionalists, sanh trc khi th chin th hai kt thc, hin nay c vo khong 75 triu ngi, chim mt phn t dn s M. H chu nh hng ca thi k khng hong kinh t 1929, th chin
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th hai 1939-1945, ch qun dch v chin tranh lnh. Nhm ngi ny rt trung thnh vi th ch x hi, yu nc, bo th trong cc d tnh, lch s, c tinh thn o c, t ch trng vo k thut, coi trng ngh nghip cao, c tinh thn trch nhim, chu ton cng vic trong s. Tng thng Bush cha l in hnh ca th h ny. . Th h Baby-boomers, sanh vo khong gia 1946-1964, nhn s chng 80 triu ngi M. Sanh sau th chin th hai, lc t l sanh sn ln cao, h trng thnh vo lc kinh t bt u thnh vng, nhng chu nh hng cuc chin Vit Nam v chin tranh lnh, h chng i chin tranh, i hi quyn li ring, chu nh hng cuc cch mng tnh dc, hay ghin ma ty, thch nhc rock and roll, c ng bn ngoi thnh ph, hai v chng u i lm, i sng gia nh thay i. Nhm ny mun to du n ca mnh trong x hi, lm khc ngi, lc quan, thin v l tng, c tinh thn phn u cao, thnh cng ngoi i, ly d cao, t chp nhn tht bi, khng yu cu gip , d b burnout, thin v vt cht, n nn nhiu. B ng v gi tr trong x hi, h thng t hi who am I? in hnh cho th h ny l tng thng Bill Clinton, Nicolas Sarkozy. . Th h X, sanh khong 1965-1980 nhn s 46 triu M. nh hng ca chng trnh truyn hnh Sesame street, Music TV, my in ton c nhn P.C, cha m ly d, nhiu ngi trong lp tui ny nghin cocaine, crack. t tin tng vo c ch x hi, nht l khi thy cc iu kin thun li b th h boomers chim gi, h mun to cho mnh mt s nghip. Tnh nt thng chit trung, nhng khng ngi thay i ngh nghip v vic lm, thch nghi vi mi thay i, nghi ng cc c ch, t s ly d cao, tin phong trong xa l in t, c nhiu sng kin v ngh lc. V tiu cc, h qu tr trong cng tc qun tr, chnh mng, t n o, ngh sao ni vy, thch t lm ch ly mnh. . Th h Y, sanh trong thi k 1980-2000, vo khong 76 triu M. Trng thnh trong giai on pht trin k thut truyn thng, giu ngho cch bit, nh hng ca cc sc dn di tr. C nhiu ngi nghin
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ma ty, cn sa, gia nhp bn cn bo hnh. H nhn nh cc c ch x hi theo cch nhn ring ca mnh. Lp tui ny mnh danh l th h digital, hiu bit cao v in ton v tin vo internet, thng tin, my tnh 24 trn 24 gi, chp nhn d bit v mong ngi khc cng chp nhn quan im ca mnh, quan tm v mi trng, thch nhac MTV (Music TV). Gi tr hc lc cng ngy cng cao, khng quan tm v vic lm, nhng mun i mi v t mnh lm ch. . Th h 7X, 8X v 9X Vit Nam l mt khi nim ch nhng ngi sanh vo thp nin 1970, 1980 v 1990. Nhng tranh lun cu ngi trong ba lp tui ny v qua nhng bi bnh lun v gii tr c th nhn thy c tnh np sng ca h . Th h 7X, t 30 n 40 tui. Mt bn tr trong lp tui 7X ni v th h ca mnh nh sau. C ngi ni khong cch ny (gia th h 7X v 8X) khng ng k ch khong 10 nm thi m. y khong cch chng ta khng th o bng con s m ch c th o bng suy ngh, cch ngh, cch hnh ng. Nhng ti sao l 7X v 8X m khng phi 7X vi 9X hay 7X vi 6X. im chung ca hai th h ny l h khng chng kin chin tranh, nhng vi mnh l c mt khong cch kh c th lp y c. i vi th h 7X ca ti mnh c sinh ra trong thi k t nc cn trong thi k bao cp. Mc d khng trc tip nh hng bi thi k ny nhng ti mnh cng bit c cuc sng n nh th no. Mnh khng th qun c cnh ba mnh 4 gi sng i xp hng mua go, c nh khng dm n tht i m v ch bin cc mn n khc. Mnh cn nh mi lc mnh 8 tui, ba mnh giao mnh vic i ch. Nh mnh lc ang nui g ci thin nn phi mua c vn v nu thm cho g n. Th l mnh chn trong m c vn c nhng con to ly ra nu cho nh n. Sao ba n lc cc th. V c th sm mt chic xe p mnh phi chun b gn ba nm tri bng cch mua tng ph tng v dnh. Hi mnh tm mi cch c tin nh hng sng mnh ly trong t lnh mang qua nh hng xm bn, nh mnh c hai cy mn rt to, th l mnh hi mn mang ra ngoi ng ngi bn. Chnh v chng kin cuc sng thi k m mnh rt thng b m. V cng chnh v l do m mnh li thnh ph Nha Trang ny. Khng phi by gi ngi ta mi x vo Saigon tm c hi vn ln. Khi ra trung c rt nhiu c
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hi mnh pht trin nhng chnh lc hnh nh b m lm mnh ngh li. Bigbogboyblog. . Th h 8X l nhng ngi t 20 ti 30 tui Vit Nam, trng thnh khi chin tranh chm dt. H rt nng ng, hot bt v l th h tip thu vn ha phng Ty mt cch nhanh chng, y trin vng, thng ngh khc lm khc so vi lp tui trc. V vi mt s ngi, h cho l phong cch sng ca h. H yu t do khng thch rng buc v thch khm ph. Cc gi tr truyn thng b mt i v hu nh con ngi ch sng v ci ti c nhn . Mt bi bo thng 2-2010 va qua m t gii tr th h 8X Vit Nam l mt lp tui c ba vt bt ly thn. l dng th thanh ton ATM. Tin li l th nht song hn c, th l nhng giao dch trn mng ngy cng thng dng. Nhng t hng gim gi lin tc qung co m trn internet lun lm nhng ngi tr kh ngi yn. in thoi di ng: s liu cho bit c nc c trn 3 triu thu bao in thoi di ng m trong s t nht phi c n 50% l gii tr. Khng phi khoe my nh hi in thoi di ng cn l xa x, in thoi vi 8X hm nay c rt nhiu chc nng khc, nhiu nht vn l nhu cu giao lu khi m gii tr 8X lun khao kht c c lp, t do khng ph thuc vo gia nh na. Ch cn mt tin nhn trn my ko nhng 8X li gn nhau hn. cng di ng USB: trong Ban Chp hnh on ai cng c mt ci USB lng lng eo c. Lc ln vn phng copy ti liu n, nh kia. Ri mun ra hng net gi i. V tiu cc, 8X ngi xung phong, ngi dn u mc du c kh nng, hi ht, thin v thc dng. Cch suy ngh y dn n mt th h tng i th ng, t pht trin, t ng gp kin, trn tra, nh hp c st c. . Th h 9X, t 10 n 20 tui. L nhm ln ln vi s pht trin kinh t, thng tin in t m ra th gii bn ngoi (theo c lng hin Vit Nam c ti 22 triu ngi s dng internet). H c miu t l mt th h tin b v ni lon, t tin
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hn th h trc, theo ui nhng iu h mun c, dng ngoi ng v c bit l internet. H c chiu hng t chi phong tc truyn thng, gi tr ca lp tui i trc, thch nghe nhc ngoi quc, a phong cch sng v phong tc ca nc ngoi. C l y l lp tui b ch trch nhiu, th h 9X b ph bnh c mt thnh phn nng ni nht thi, li sng bung th, n chi snh iu, thch c ph lm, c ph chi hay c ph ging, thch nhum tc, ph ph iu thuc . Th h Z, tng ng vi th h 0X (zeroX) Vit Nam, l bc chuyn ca thin nin k, sanh sau nm 2000. Cng gi l th h internet, hay l tn th h trm lng (nouvelle gnration silencieuse), so snh vi th h trm lng u th k 20. Nhn s ng o chim ti 18% dn s. Nhng ngi tr ny khng nhng ch tin vo Wikipedia, m thch truy cp mng, tin tng vo k thut, hot ng ca h p dng theo internet, www, google Kim vic lm khng kh. Tui Z khng c khiu tranh lun bng ngn t hay cc loi pht biu khc, h thiu kin nhn, mun c kt qu ngay. Thch s dng in thoi di ng v cm thy thiu st nu khng c iPod, iPad. C nhn ch ngha, t tinh thn gia nh, thiu tha hip, khng tin vo gi tr chung ca x hi, th h Z t nghe li ngi khc, khng ch n k khc v c l v thch sng vi th gii o, nn lp tui Z khng c khuynh hng qu khch. Nhiu nh x hi d on sau nm 2020 s c thay i ln trong cch lm vic, quan nim v lun l v gi tr. Kh bit c c tnh vn ha ca lp tui ny. *** DN S VIT NAM Kho st v dn s Vit Nam, mt phn ln chng ti da vo m hnh ca US Bureau of Census, mt c s nghin cu v dn s tt c cc nc trn th gii theo phng php cohort component projection.
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Xin ch tin theo di theo thi gian, mu sc ca mi khong cch 5 tui s gi nguyn trong nhng biu k tip 10 nm sau. * Nhn v pha sau: dn s Vit Nam nm 1990 v 2000 Thp tui dn s Vit Nam nhng nm 1990 v 2000 c hnh mi nhn, lp tui gi khng sng lu nh nhng nm v sau.

Phi nam t 35, 40 tui tr ln (ngha l lp ngi m tui thanh nin tri qua cuc chin di 30 nm trc1975) rt t so vi phi n, do hu qu git chc ca chin tranh. Tui s sinh trong nm 1990 tng kh nhiu so vi lp tui ln hn. im ni bt khi so snh thp tui 1990 vi thp tui 2000 l s sanh bt u gim lp tr nh t 0 tui ti 4 tui, con trai nhiu hn con gi do hu qu ca tnh trng hn ch sinh sn, m ph thai l mt yu t quan trng ti Vit Nam, c tnh ln n mt triu ph thai hng nm (Truyn Thng s 18 Ma ng 2005), mc du php lnh dn s 2003
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nghim cm vic thm d gii tnh ca thai nhi.. * Hm nay: dn s Vit Nam nm 2010 Theo Tng cc Thng k Vit Nam kt qu cuc tng iu tra dn s v nh tnh n ngy 1-4-2009, dn s Vit Nam l 85.789.573 ngi, tng 9,5 triu ngi so vi 10 nm trc.

C vi yu t ng ghi trong thp tui ny 1- Chnh lch gii tnh ang tng cao. T l nam n nhng ngi trn 65 tui l 33,5%, phi n nhiu hn phi nam. Tri li, t s nam n khong 0-4 tui l 111% so vi 106% nm 2005. Vi tng trng ny, c d on trong vng 15 n 20 nm na, Vit Nam s thiu 4,3 triu thanh n. Hin nay tui kt hn ca phi nam l 26,2 v phi n 22,8 tui. 2- Lc lng lao ng tc l nhng ngi t 15 n 59 tui tng thm nhiu so vi bng phn b dn s nhng nm trc, hin nay khong 43,8 triu, trn di 50% dn s, t n c cu dn s vng, ngha l hai ngi trong tui lao ng mi phi gnh mt ngi ph thuc. Tuy nhin thi k ny khng di, y Ban Dn S, Gia nh d on thi k ny s chm dt nm 2015, trong khi b phn dn s ca Lin Hip Quc cho l thi k dn s vng Vit Nam s ko di t 2010 n 2040. 3- Lp tui ph thuc l nhng ngi khng tham d vo cng vic sn xut, khong gn 44% i vi lp ngi di 15 tui v 14% i vi ngi trn 65 tui.
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T cc con s ny, tnh ra ch s lo ha, biu th bng t s ngi trn 60 tui so vi ngi di 15 tui. Hin nay ch s lo ha Vit Nam l 35,9%, Singapour 85% v Thi Lan 52%. 4- Tui hc ph thng t 5 n 19 tui khong 29 triu, chim 28,7%, trong s ny phi n i hc nhiu hn phi nam 51,09%. * Nhn v pha trc : d bo dn s C cu dn s Vit Nam s thay i mau chng. Thng k d on n nm 2020 dn s s l 99 triu v nm 2030 l 104 triu. Lp tui nh gim, tui lao ng tng, tui gi trn 60 tng, biu phn b dn s khng c hnh thp m ging hnh ci chum (ci lu)..

Sinh xut cng ngy cng gim, nhm tui 0-4 gim r rt. Theo V Quang Vit, d phng dn s tui tiu hc s gim xung 6,5 triu vo nm 2020 v 6,3 triu vo nm 2030. cp trung hc s s gim mnh xung cn 10,4 triu vo nm 2015, tc l t hn 2 triu.
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Dn s tui i hc c th gim i 10% vo nm 2015, 20% vo nm 2020, v 24% vo nm 2030, nhng nu s sinh vin i hc khng tng thm (nm 2006 l 20,5%), th t l i hc i hc vn tng. S gim dn s trong lp tui i hc c th em li kt qu thun tin cho vic nng cao nn gio dc, tuy nhin u t cho gio dc ti Vit Nam vn cn thp, 2,1% li tc quc gia, so vi t l ton th gii l 5,4%. Lc lng lao ng 15-59 tui tng nhanh c v tuyt i ln tng i, c th ln n 65% dn s. Tuy nhin khng phi mi ngi trong tui lao ng u tham gia hot ng kinh t, v ngi n tui ngh hu vn cn lm vic. Trong khi lp tui ph thuc tr 0-14 gim th lp tui ph thuc gi trn 60 tng. Tc lo ha nhanh hn tc tng dn s trong tui lao ng, t ti 11,24 % nm 2020. Lin Hip Quc quy nh rng mt dn s c 10% ngi cao tui l mt dn s gi. Cc vn sc kho, tm l, x hi s t ra mt cch nghim trng. Theo Nguyn nh C, trong s ngi cao tui ch c khong 16-17% hng lng hu hoc mt sc, hn 10% hng tr cp ngi c cng vi nc. Nh vy cn trn 70% sng bng cch khc, tip tc lao ng hay nhn h tr ca con chu v gia nh. S thay i v c cu dn s va l mt thun li va gy ra p lc trong cng tc gii quyt vic lm i vi lp tui lao ng, bo m an sinh x hi cho lp tui hc sinh v lp tui ph thuc, tr em v ngi gi, v l mt thch i vi vic u t vo gio dc. Ngy mai s ra sao? l mt cu hi cho nhng ai cn mun nhn qu hng lVit Nam. Phm Hu Trc 7-2010
TI LIU THAM KHO - Hababou, Ralph, Gnration W, Frst, 2009 - Coupland, Douglas, Gnration A, Vintage, 2009. - Coupland, Douglas, Gnration X, Tales For An Accelerated Culture, St Martins Press, 1991 - When Generations Collide, Lynne C. Lancaster , The Management Forum Series, March 2004 - Generation Gaps Revisited, Kenneth A. De Jong & Jayshree Sarma - i thoi vi ci ti ca tui tr, Hunh Vn Sn. - Internet 174

Ph bn Bng i chiu cc th h (theo Strauss v Howe v Doulas Coupland) Late medieval Saeculum Arthurian Generation Humanist Generation Reformation Saeculum Reformation Generation Reprisal Generation Elizabethan Generation Parliamentarian Generation New World Saeculum Puritan Generation Cavalier Generation Glorious Generation Enlightenment Generation Revolutionary Saeculum Awakening Generation Liberty Generation Republican Generation Compromise Generation Civil War Saeculum Transcendental Generation Gilded Generation Progressive Generation Great Power Saeculum Missionary Generation Lost Generation G.I. Generation Silent Generation Millennial Saeculum Baby Boom Generation 13th Generation Millenial Generation

1433-1460 1461-1482

Retreat from France War of Roses

1483-1511 1512-1540 1541-1565 1566-1587

Tudor Renaissance Protestant Reformation Intolerance and Martyrdom Armada Crisis

1588-1617 1618-1647 1648-1673 1674-1700

Merrie England Puritan Awakening Religious Intolerance Glorious Revolution

1701-1723 1724-1741 1742-1766 1767-1991

Augustian Age of Empire Great Awakening French and Indian War American Revolution

1792-1821 1822-1842 1843-1859

Era of Good Feeling Transcendental Awakening American Civil War

1860-1882 1883-1900 1901-1924 1925-1942

Traditionalists (Pre-1946)

1943-1960 1961-1981 1982-2003?

New Silent Generation 2004- ? Th h A, alpha, zro Vit Nam hin nay: - Th h 8x t 20 ti 30 tui VN hin nay c khong 9 triu nam v 9 triu n - Th h 9x t 10 ti 20 tui VN t hn, khong 8,5 triu nam v 8 triu n . (Xin coi thp tui Vit Nam)

Baby Boomers (1946-1964) Generation X (1965-1981), 1 ri. Millennial, Y, GeNext (1982-2000) Th h 8x v 9x ti Vit Nam Generation Z,

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