1

1.

(foreign exchange)



2
2 American Style


34 1
European Style
0.029
1

(equilibrium exchange rate) 1
34 1 40
1 (depreciation)
30 1 (appreciation)

 (flexible exchange rate)

(fixed exchange rate)
40 1 (devaluation)
(revaluation)
(/US$)
S$
40
34
30
D$

D/$

D//$

1 :

2. 1
2



(competitiveness)

2.1 (nominal exchange rate)

2
1 34 1 67 1
22


2

EC 353

2.2 (real exchange rate)

(S)
(P*)
=

SP *
P

SP*

2

1
1

1
2
3
4
5

()
40
40
48
36
32

100
100
120
90
80

100
100
120
117
125

100
100
120
120
120
120
130
100
150
96

1 2 100
100 120
100 120
EC 353

 4,800
( 4,000 )

2 3 (120 )
(120 ) (40 48
)

( 120) 3 4

(48 36 )
( 120 100) 4
5

( 100
96)

2.3 (effective exchange rate)

(weighted average)


(nominal effective exchange rate)

2.4 (real effective exchange rate)

(nominal effective exchange rate)

EC 353

3.

3.1 (bid rate)

1 = 34 1 = 67
1 = 27 1 = 45
3.2 (ask rate offer rate)
1
= 36 1 = 68 1 = 29 1 = 47

spread
3.3 (spot rate)

2-3 1 34
3.4 (forward rate)

30 60 90
1 30 1
34.60 60 1 35.20
90 1 35

3.5 (official rate)

EC 353

3.6 (market rate or flexible

rate)

4.
2
2 (derived demand
and derived supply)
(direct demand and supply)

(demand for imports)

(capital outflows)

(capital inflows)

4.1


4.1.1 importables (
)
importables

4.1.2
(import competing goods)



6

EC 353




()

4.1.3 (imports)


(demand for imports)
()
Sd
P3
P2
P1
D
R

Dm

2 :
EC 353

 importables

D importables
Sd
OP1
OT OT
OP1 OP2
OR OS RS
OP3 OQ

( P3) (
P1)
Dm (demand for import)
Dm D ( Dm D) (Sm)

Dm Sm

3 :


()
()
(/
)
200
60
20
250
50
25
300
40
30

() ()
10
10
10

600
500
400

EC 353

 3 1 2 Dm
Sm
Sm
Sm (
)
Sm1, Sm2 Sm3 3 ()
( 3 ()
()

()
()

(/)

300
250
200

Sm3
Sm2 30
Sm1 25
20
Dm
40 50 60

D$
400 500 600

3 : (D$)

4.2

(exogeneous)

EC 353

 (/)

F
D$ + F
D$

4 :
(D$ + F)
F (capital outflows)

D$ + F

4.3

4.3.1



Dm 2
( 2)
5

10

EC 353


Sd
P3
P1
D
O

Dmf

5 :
D

Sd
(domestic supply)
Dmf
( D Dm)
4.2.3 (exports)

(exportable)
(export)
( Sx)
(
exportable)
Dmf Sx

EC 353

11

 Sx 6 ()
4 3 5
(S$)
6 ()
4 :

(
(/
)
)
()
15
100
20
12
150
25
10
250
30
()
()

()

()

300
300
300

1,500
1,800
2,500

()
(/)

SX1
SX2

15
12
10

SX3

S$

30
25
20

Dmf

100

150

250

1,500 1,800 2,500

6 : (S$)

12

EC 353

4.4
(capital inflows)
exogeneous variables
(S$) S$ + F
7
(/)
S$

S$ + F

7 :

5.
5.1
2

(imports equal exports)

EC 353

13

 (/)

S$
C

27

26
25

A
D/$
D$
D//$

8 :

DS S$
D/S
DS S$ A
26 1
DS
/
D $ C

27 1
(depreciation)
D/$
26 1
26 1
AB

AB (
) (
14

EC 353

) ()
(devalued)

(26 1
) () (overvalued)
DS
D//$ 25 1
(appreciation)

(revaluation)
26 1
(undervalued)

5.2




9
()
()
( : US$)
( : US$)
S3
S3
//
E
/
30
E
28
E
26
26
E
/
D$
D$
D$
D/$

Q1 Q2
( : US$)
9 :

Q1

EC 353

Q2

( : US$)

15

 D$
S$
D/$
D$ S$ E 26 1
Q1

D/$ ()

()
()
26 28 ()
26 30

6.
slope
slope

(stable) 10 () slope

( absolute term)
10 ()
10 ()
10 ()

16

EC 353

 (/)

(/)

S$

D$

D$

S$

()

()

(/)

(/)
E2
E1
E3

D$

S$

B (stable)
A (unstable)
C (stable)
S$

D$

()
()

10 :

10 () E1
EC 353

17

 E2
E2 E1
E3
E3 E1 A
A
A B
C 2

7.
(exchange arbitrage)
arbitrage
commodity
arbitrage

interest arbitrage

exchange arbitrage

arbitrage

exchange arbitrage 2 (two-point

arbitrage) 3 (three-point or triangular arbitrage)
2 2
2 $ 2.0 = 1
$ 2.40 = 1
$ 0.10 1
arbitrage


18

EC 353


arbitrage

11 : arbitrage 3

3 3
3

11
2 3
11



triangular arbitrage

) 3
$ 1.96
= 1

0.2
= D.M.1
D.M.2.5 = $ 1

EC 353

19

 1.96
5 5
2 0.04
1
1 1

($/) . (/D.M.) . (D.M./$) > 1

($/) . (/D.M.) . (D.M./$) 1

)
1 = $ 2 250
$ 1 = 130

(inconsistent) 1
2 2 260
250 1
1 10
(indirect rate or cross rate)
(direct rate) 1 250 1
130 2 260

n
n-1 n (n - 1)
redundancy
exchange rate table or matrix 4
4 (4 - 1) = 12

20

EC 353

 5 : 4

D.M.
US$
$
1
($/)
($/D.M.)

(/$)
1
(/D.M.)
D.M.
(D.M./$)
(D.M./)
1

(/$)

(/)

(/D.M.)

($/)
(/)
(D.M./)
1

($/)
(/$)
(/$) =

($/)

(cross rate)
Kyats
Kyats
: Kyats
/Kyats =

:
Kyats :

8.
(nominal exchange rate)

(equilibrium exchange rate)

(real exchange rate)
(effective exchange rate)

EC 353

21


(real effective exchange rate)
()
importables ()
import competing goods ()

(capital outflows)


(exports)


(capital inflows)

(exchange arbitrage)
2 (two-point arbitrage) 3 (three point or triangular
arbitrage) arbitrage

22

EC 353


1. Miltiades Chacholiades, International Economics. (Singapore : McGraw-Hill
Book Co., 1990), pp. 352-354.
2. . , . ( :
, 2516), 105-106.
3. exportables 2
(exports)
4. Maurice Levi, Interntional Flnance. (Singapore : McGraw-Hill, Inc., 1983), p. 30.
-----------------------------------------------------------

EC 353

23