Point estimation and interval estimation

learning objectives: to understand the relationship between point estimation and interval estimation to calculate and interpret the confidence interval

Statistical estimation
Every member of the population has the same chance of being selected in the sample

Population

Parameters estimation
Random sample

Statistics

Statistical estimation
Estimate
Point estimate
sample mean sample proportion

Interval estimate
confidence interval for mean confidence interval for proportion

Point estimate is always within the interval estimate

Interval estimation
Confidence interval (CI)
provide us with a range of values that we belive, with a given level of confidence, containes a true value CI for the poipulation means

5% C 5 I 5% C 5 I SM E

= .9 S M x 59 E

= .5 S M x 55 E S D = n

Interval estimation
Confidence interval (CI)

2%

14% -1.0
-1.96

34%

34%

14% 1.0
1.96

2% 2.0 3.0 z
2.58

-3.0 -2.0
-2.58

0.0

Interval estimation
Confidence interval (CI), interpretation and example
50

40 Frequency

30

20

10 0 22.5 27.5 32.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 Age in years

x= 41.0, SD= 8.7, SEM=0.46, 95% CI (40.0, 42), 99%CI (39.7, 42.1)

Testing of hypotheses
learning objectives: to understand the role of significance test to distinguish the null and alternative hypotheses to interpret p-value, type I and II errors

Statistical inference. Role of chance.

S R e a s o n

c i e a

t i f i c

k n

l e b

d s

n E d m i n p t i u r i i ct i ao l n o

Formulate hypotheses

Collect data to test hypotheses

Statistical inference. Role of chance.

Systematic error

Formulate hypotheses

Collect data to test hypotheses

CHANCE
Accept hypothesis Reject hypothesis

Random error (chance) can be controlled by statistical significance or by confidence interval

Testing of hypotheses
Significance test
Subjects: random sample of 352 nurses from HUS surgical hospitals Mean age of the nurses (based on sample): 41.0 Another random sample gave mean value: 42.0.
Question:
Is it possible that the true age of nurses from HUS surgical hospitals was 41 years and observed mean ages differed just because of sampling error?

Answer can be given based on Significance Testing.

Testing of hypotheses
Null hypothesis H0 Alternative hypothesis HA there is no difference question explored by the investigator

Statistical method are used to test hypotheses

The null hypothesis is the basis for statistical test.

Testing of hypotheses
Example
The purpose of the study: to assess the effect of the lactation nurse on attitudes towards breast feeding among women
Research question:
Does the lactation nurse have an effect on attitudes towards breast feeding ? The lactation nurse has an effect on attitudes towards breast feeding. The lactation nurse has no effect on attitudes towards breast feeding.

HA : H0 :

Testing of hypotheses
Definition of p-value.
5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 .5 5 5 .5 5 5 .5 5 5 .5 5 5.5 5 5.5 5 9 .9 9 5 .5 5

2.5%

95%

2.5%

AGE

If our observed age value lies outside the green lines, the probability of getting a value as extreme as this if the null hypothesis is true is < 5%

Testing of hypotheses
Definition of p-value.
p-value = probability of observing a value more extreme that actual value observed, if the null hypothesis is true The smaller the p-value, the more unlikely the null hypothesis seems an explanation for the data Interpretation for the example If results falls outside green lines, p<0.05, if it falls inside green lines, p>0.05

Testing of hypotheses
Type I and Type II Errors
No study is perfect, there is always the chance for error

Decision Accept H5/ reject HA Reject H5 /accept HA

H5 true / HA false H5false / HA true OK p=5 Type I error ( ) p= Type II error ( ) p= OK p=5 -

- level of significance

1- - power of the test

Testing of hypotheses
Type I and Type II Errors
=0.05

there is only 5 chance in 100 that the result termed "significant" could occur by chance alone

The probability of making a Type I () can be decreased by altering the level of significance. it will be more difficult to find a significant result the power of the test will be decreased the risk of a Type II error will be increased

Testing of hypotheses
Type I and Type II Errors
The probability of making a Type II () can be decreased by increasing the level of significance. it will increase the chance of a Type I error

To which type of error you are willing to risk ?

Testing of hypotheses
Type I and Type II Errors. Example
Suppose there is a test for a particular disease. If the disease really exists and is diagnosed early, it can be successfully treated If it is not diagnosed and treated, the person will become severely disabled If a person is erroneously diagnosed as having the disease and treated, no physical damage is done.

To which type of error you are willing to risk ?

Testing of hypotheses
Type I and Type II Errors. Example.
Decision Not diagnosed Diagnosed No disease OK Type I error Disease Type II error OK

treated but not harmed by the treatment Decision:

irreparable damage would be done

to avoid Type error II, have high level of significance

Testing of hypotheses
Confidence interval and significance test
Null hypothesis is accepted A value for null hypothesis within the 95% CI p-value > 0.05 Null hypothesis is rejected A value for null hypothesis outside of 95% CI p-value < 0.05

Parametric and nonparametric tests of significance

learning objectives: to distinguish parametric and nonparametric tests of significance to identify situations in which the use of parametric tests is appropriate to identify situations in which the use of nonparametric tests is appropriate

Parametric and nonparametric tests of significance

Parametric test of significance - to estimate at least one population parameter from sample statistics Assumption: the variable we have measured in the sample is normally distributed in the population to which we plan to generalize our findings Nonparametric test - distribution free, no assumption about the distribution of the variable in the population

Parametric and nonparametric tests of significance

Nonparametric tests Nominal data One group Two unrelated groups Two related groups K-unrelated groups K-related groups Ordinal data Parametric tests Ordinal, interval, ratio data

Some concepts related to the statistical methods.

Multiple comparison
two or more data sets, which should be analyzed repeated measurements made on the same individuals entirely independent samples

Some concepts related to the statistical methods.

Sample size
number of cases, on which data have been obtained

Which of the basic characteristics of a distribution are more sensitive to the sample size ?
central tendency (mean, median, mode) variability (standard deviation, range, IQR) skewness kurtosis mean standard deviation skewness kurtosis

Some concepts related to the statistical methods.

Degrees of freedom
the number of scores, items, or other units in the data set, which are free to vary

One- and two tailed tests

one-tailed test of significance used for directional hypothesis two-tailed tests in all other situations

Selected nonparametric tests

Chi-Square goodness of fit test.
to determine whether a variable has a frequency distribution compariable to the one expected

5 5 = ( f oi f ei ) f ei
2

expected frequency can be based on theory previous experience comparison groups

Selected nonparametric tests

Chi-Square goodness of fit test. Example
The average prognosis of total hip replacement in relation to pain reduction in hip joint is exelent - 80% good - 10% expected medium - 5% bad - 5% In our study of we had got a different outcome exelent - 95% good - 2% observed medium - 2% bad - 1% Does observed frequencies differ from expected ?

Selected nonparametric tests

Chi-Square goodness of fit test. Example
fe1= 80, fo1= 95, fe2= 10, fe3=5, fo2= 2, (4-1) fo3=2,
2 2 2

fe4= 5; fo4= 1;

= 14.2, df=3
2

0.0005 < p < 0.05

> 3.841 > 6.635 > 10.83

p < 0.05 p < 0.01 p < 0.001

Null hypothesis is rejected at 5% level

Selected nonparametric tests

Chi-Square test.
Chi-square statistic (test) is usually used with an R (row) by C (column) table. Expected frequencies can be calculated:

Frc
then
2

5 = ( fr fc ) N
df = (fr-1) (fc-1)

5 5 = ( f ij Fij ) j F ij

Selected nonparametric tests

Chi-Square test. Example
Question: whether men are treated more aggressively for cardiovascular problems than women? Sample: people have similar results on initial testing Response: whether or not a cardiac catheterization was recommended Independent: sex of the patient

Selected nonparametric tests

Chi-Square test. Example
Result: observed frequencies

Sex Cardiac Cath No Yes Column total male 5 5 5 5 9 9 female 9 9 5 5 5 5 Row total 5 5 9 9 55 5

Selected nonparametric tests

Chi-Square test. Example
Result: expected frequencies

Sex Cardiac Cath No Yes Column total male 5.5 5 5.5 5 9 9 female 9. 9 9 9. 9 9 5 5 Row total 5 5 9 9 55 5

Selected nonparametric tests

Chi-Square test. Example
Result:

= 2.52, df=1
2

(2-1) (2-1)

p > 0.05 Null hypothesis is accepted at 5% level Conclusion: Recommendation for cardiac catheterization

is not related to the sex of the patient

Selected nonparametric tests

Chi-Square test. Underlying assumptions.
Frequency data Adequate sample size Measures independent of each other Theoretical basis for the categorization of the variables Cannot be used to analyze differences in scores or their means Expected frequencies should not be less than 5 No subjects can be count more than once Categories should be defined prior to data collection and analysis

Selected nonparametric tests

Fishers exact test. McNemar test.

For N x N design and very small sample size Fisher's exact test should be applied McNemar test can be used with two dichotomous measures on the same subjects (repeated measurements). It is used to measure change

Parametric and nonparametric tests of significance

Nn a m o p ra etric tests Nm a o in l d ta a C i sq a h u re gon o d ess o fit f C i sq a h u re M em r cN a s test C i sq a h u re test O in l d ta rd a a P ra etric tests a m O in l, in rd a terva l, ra d ta tio a

O eg u n ro p T o w u rela n ted g us ro p T o rela w ted g us ro p K n ted -u rela g us ro p K -rela ted g us ro p

Selected nonparametric tests

Ordinal data independent groups.

Mann-Whitney U : used to compare two groups

Kruskal-Wallis H: used to compare two or more groups

Selected nonparametric tests

Ordinal data independent groups. Mann-Whitney test
Null hypothesis : Two sampled populations are equivalent in location
The observations from both groups are combined and ranked, with the average rank assigned in the case of ties. If the populations are identical in location, the ranks should be randomly mixed between the two samples

Selected nonparametric tests

Ordinal data independent groups. Kruskal-Wallis test
k- groups comparison, k 2

Null hypothesis : k sampled populations are equivalent in location

The observations from all groups are combined and ranked, with the average rank assigned in the case of ties. If the populations are identical in location, the ranks should be randomly mixed between the k samples

Selected nonparametric tests

Ordinal data related groups.

Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test: used to compare two related groups

Friedman matched samples: used to compare two or more related groups

Selected nonparametric tests

Ordinal data 2 related groups Wilcoxon signed rank test
Two related variables. No assumptions about the shape of distributions of the variables.

Null hypothesis : Two variables have the same distribution

Takes into account information about the magnitude of differences within pairs and gives more weight to pairs that show large differences than to pairs that show small differences.

Based on the ranks of the absolute values of the differences between the two variables.

Parametric and nonparametric tests of significance

N n a a e icte ts o p r mtr s Nm a o in l d ta a C i s u re h qa go ns o o d es f fit C i s u re h qa Od a d ta r in l a W o o s nd ilc x n ig e r n te t ak s W oo rn ilc x n a k s mte t, u s Mn -W itn y an h e te t s W o o s nd ilc x n ig e r n te t ak s K u a -Wllis r sk l a o ew ya a sis n a n ly o v r ne f a ia c F ie m n r d a m tc e s m le a hd a p s P r mtr a a e ic te sts

O eg o p n ru To w u r la d n e te go p rus T or la d w e te go p rus K n la d -u re te go p rus K e te -r la d go p rus

MN m rs c e a te t s C i s u re h qa te t s

Selected parametric tests

One group t-test. Example
Comparison of sample mean with a population mean It is known that the weight of young adult male has a mean value of 70.0 kg with a standard deviation of 4.0 kg. Thus the population mean, = 70.0 and population standard deviation, = 4.0. Data from random sample of 28 males of similar ages but with specific enzyme defect: mean body weight of 67.0 kg and the sample standard deviation of 4.2 kg. Question: Whether the studed group have a significantly lower body weight than the general population?

Selected parametric tests

One group t-test. Example
population mean, = 70.0 population standard deviation, = 4.0. sample size = 28 sample mean, x = 67.0 sample standard deviation, s= 4.0. Null hypothesis: There is no difference between sample mean and population mean. t - statistic = 0.15, p >0.05 Null hypothesis is accepted at 5% level

Selected parametric tests

Two unrelated group, t-test. Example
Comparison of means from two unrelated groups Study of the effects of anticonvulsant therapy on bone disease in the elderly. Study design: Samples: group of treated patients (n=55) group of untreated patients (n=47) Outcome measure: serum calcium concentration

Research question: Whether the groups statistically significantly differ in mean serum consentration? Test of significance: Pooled t-test

Selected parametric tests

Two unrelated group, t-test. Example
Comparison of means from two unrelated groups Study of the effects of anticonvulsant therapy on bone disease in the elderly. Study design: Samples: group of treated patients (n=20) group of untreated patients (n=27) Outcome measure: serum calcium concentration

Research question: Whether the groups statistically significantly differ in mean serum consentration? Test of significance: Separate t-test

Selected parametric tests

Two related group, paired t-test. Example
Comparison of means from two related variabless Study of the effects of anticonvulsant therapy on bone disease in the elderly. Study design: Sample: group of treated patients (n=40) Outcome measure: serum calcium concentration before and after operation Research question: Whether the mean serum consentration statistically significantly differ before and after operation? Test of significance: paired t-test

Selected parametric tests k unrelated group, one -way ANOVA test. Example
Comparison of means from k unrelated groups Study of the effects of two different drugs (A and B) on weight reduction. Study design: Samples: group of patients treated with drug A (n=32) group of patientstreated with drug B (n=35) control group (n=40) Outcome measure: weight reduction Research question: Whether the groups statistically significantly differ in mean weight reduction? Test of significance: one-way ANOVA test

Selected parametric tests k unrelated group, one -way ANOVA test. Example
The group means compared with the overall mean of the sample Visual examination of the individual group means may yield no clear answer about which of the means are different Additionally post-hoc tests can be used (Scheffe or Bonferroni)

Selected parametric tests k related group, two -way ANOVA test. Example
Comparison of means for k related variables Study of the effects of drugs A on weight reduction. Study design: Samples: group of patients treated with drug A (n=35) control group (n=40) Outcome measure: weight in Time 1 (before using drug) and Time 2 (after using drug)

Selected parametric tests k related group, two -way ANOVA test. Example
Research questions: Whether the weight of the persons statistically significantly changed over time? Time effect Whether the weight of the persons Group difference statistically significantly differ between the groups? Whether the weight of the persons used drug A statistically significantly redused compare to control group? Drug effect

Test of significance: ANOVA with repeated measurementtest

Selected parametric tests

Underlying assumptions.
interval or ratio data Adequate sample size Measures independent of each other Homoginity of group variances Cannot be used to analyze frequency Sample size big enough to avoid skweness No subjects can be belong to more than one group Equality of group variances

Parametric and nonparametric tests of significance

N n a a e ict s o p r mtr e ts Nm a o in l d ta a C i s u re h qa g o ns o d es o fit f C i s u re h qa Od a d ta r in l a W oo ilc x n s n dra kte t ig e n s W o o ra k ilc x n n sm s u te t, Mn - h e a nWitn y te t s W oo ilc x n s n dra kte t ig e n s K sa- a ru k l Wllis o ewy n a aa s o n ly is f v ria c a ne F d a rie mn mtc e a hd s mle a p s P r mt icte ts a a er s Od a in r a r in l, te v l, r tiod ta a a O eg o pt s n r u -te t S d n t-t s tu e ts e t O eg o p n ru To w u r la d n e te go p r us T or la d w e te go p r us K n e te -u r la d go p r us K e te -r la d go p r us

MNmr c e a s te t s C i s u re h qa te t s

P ir dSu e t a e t dn s t-t s et AOA NV

A O Aw N V ith r p ae eetd ma u e e ts e s r mn

Att rapportera resultat i text

5. Underskningens utfrande
5.1 Datainsamlingen 5.2 Beskrivning av samplet kn, lder, ses, skolniv etc enligt bakgrundsvariabler 5.3. Mtinstrumentet inkluderar validitetstestning med hjlp av faktoranalys 5.4 Dataanlysmetoder

Beskrivning av samplet
Samplet bestod av 1028 lrare frn grundskolan och gymnasiet. Av lrarna var n=775 (75%) kvinnor och n=125 (25%) mn. Lrarna frdelade sig p de olika skolniverna enligt fljande: n=330 (%) undervisade p lgstadiet; n= 303 (%) p hgstadiet och n= 288 (%) i gymnasiet. En liten grupp lrare n= 81 (%) undervisade p bde p hg- och lgstadiet eller bde p hgstadiet och gymnasiet eller p alla niver. Denna grupp benmndes i analyserna fr den kombinerade gruppen.

Faktoranalysen
Fljande saker br beskrivas: det ursprungliga instrumentet (ex K&T) med de 17 variablerna och den teoretiska grupperingen av variablerna. Kaisers Kriterium och Cattells Scree Test fr det potentiella antalet faktorer att finna Kommunaliteten fr variablerna Metoden fr faktoranalys Rotationsmetoden Faktorernas frklaringsgrad uttryckt i % Kriteriet fr att laddning skall anses signifikant Den slutliga roterade faktormatrisen Summavariabler och deras reliabilitet dvs Chronbacks alpha

Dtaanlysmetoder
Data analyserades kvantitativt. Fr beskrivning av variabler anvndes frekvenser, procenter, medelvrdet, medianen, standardavvikelsen och minimum och maximum vrden. Alla variablerna testades betrffande frdelningens form med Kolmogorov-Smirnov Testet. Hypotestestningen betrffande skillnader mellan grupperna gllande bakgrundsvariablerna har utfrts med Mann-Whitney Test och d gruppernas antal > 2 med Kruskall-Wallis Testet. Sambandet mellan variablerna har testats med Pearsons korrelationskoefficient. Valideringen av mtinstrumentet har utfrts med faktoranalys som beskrivits ingende i avsnitt xx. Reliabiliteten fr summavariablerna har testats med Chronbachs alpha. Statistisk signifikans har accepterats om p<0.05 och datat anlyserades med programmet SPSS 11.5.