Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Katherine Spector
(1-212) 834-2031 katherine.b.spector@jpmorgan.com
Scott Speaker
(1-212) 834-3878 scott.c.speaker@jpmorgan.com
P R I V A T E
AN D
Sung Yoo
(1-212) 834-7045 sung.k.yoo@jpmorgan.com
S T R I C TL Y
Kristi Jones
(1-212) 834-2835 kristi.l.jones@jpmorgan.com
This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit and internal use of the client in order to indicate, on a preliminary basis, the feasibility of a possible transaction or transactions and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure to any other party. This presentation is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by JPMorgan. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of JPMorgan. The information in this presentation is based upon management forecasts and reflects prevailing conditions and our views as of this date, all of which are subject to change. In preparing this presentation, we have relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources or which was provided to us by or on behalf of the client or which was otherwise reviewed by us. In addition, our analyses are not and do not purport to be appraisals of the assets, stock, or business of the client. The information in this presentation does not take into account the effects of a possible transaction or transactions involving an actual or potential change of control, which may have significant valuation and other effects. JPMorgan is a marketing name for investment banking businesses of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries worldwide. Securities, syndicated loan arranging, financial advisory and other investment banking activities are performed by J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. and its securities affiliates, and lending, derivatives and other commercial banking activities are performed by JPMorgan Chase Bank and its banking affiliates. JPMorgan deal team members may be employees of any of the foregoing entities.
O I L
&
G AS
B A S I C S
Power
EUR
GLD
CL
NG
HO
SPX
10-yr T bills
0% Jan-01
Sep-01
Jun-02
Mar-03
Nov-03
Aug-04
May-05
Feb-06
O I L
&
G AS
Agenda
Page
Oil Specifics The Big Picture: Macro Oil Fundamentals Whats the Story This Year? Natural Gas Specifics References, Websites and Data Releases to Watch
2 13 24 54 62
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B A S I C S
S P EC I F I C S
O I L
Sectoral trends are growth sector energy intensive? Power generation trends what kind of fuel does new generation use? Transportation trends number and type of cars sold? Tax and subsidy regimes distort price signals to consumers and affect their consumption behavior
Weather, seasonality winter heating demand, summer cooling demand, holidays, vacation and travel trends Non-oil fuel markets, substitution (e.g. gas, coal, hydro, nuclear) Misc events e.g. SARS, Sep. 11
Other Other
Deals associated with mergers/acquisitions
S P EC I F I C S
Distribution Distribution
Tanker supply/demand/rates Seaborne disruptions weather, traffic, accidents Port capacity, availability Pipeline capacity/nominations
Speculative flows
O I L
Oil Crude WTI Brent Tapis Dubai Refined products US market: NYMEX heating oil US Gulf Coast heating oil US Gulf Coast jet fuel NYMEX gasoline European market: IPE gasoil Gasoil 0.2% CIF NWE Jet fuel cargoes CIF NWE EN590 cargoes CIF NWE 1% and 3.5% fuel oil cargoes FOB NWE Asian market: Singapore jet fuel Natural Gas: NYMEX natural gas European natural gas priced as oil-referenced formula
5
O I L
Formal Exchanges
Over-the-Counter
NY Mercantile Exchange
Swaps/Options
Brent Crude
1 lot = 1,000 bbl
Heating Oil
1 lot = 42,000 gallons = 1,000 bbl
Gas Oil
1 lot = 100 tonnes = 750 bbl
Unleaded Gasoline
1 lot = 42,000 gallons = 1,000 bbl
S P EC I F I C S
O I L
Dated Brent London (IPE) WTI New York (NYMEX) Dubai Oman
Urals
Tapis Singapore
S P EC I F I C S
O I L
Exposure Type
Price of crude Cost of transportation, insurance, duty/tariff Cost of carry (time value of money), time spread Refinery margins
Hedging cracks (spread between crude and refined products) or full margins Consumer hedging: swaps or call options Hedging product product risk, or regional risk
O I L
Parcel Parcel
Barges: 1,000 - 5,000 MT (2 - 8 days loading) Cargoes: 10,000 - 25,000 MT (15 days loading)
Europe: Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp; Arab Gulf; Mediterranean; North West Europe; Rotterdam. United States: New York Harbour; Los Angeles; San Francisco; US Gulf Coast; Midcontinent; West Coast. Singapore
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy
O I L
For example. . .
What is the price of spot fuel oil relative to crude?
What region? Europe. Rotterdam or Med? Med. What sulphur content? 1%. CIF or FOB? CIF. Barge or cargo? Cargo. $239/tonne
$1.34 1
$239 1 tonne FO
= $13.16/bbl
S P EC I F I C S
Extensions of this idea? Look at the forward spreads; look at the spread to the US or Asian fuel cracks
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy
O I L
10
$5.20
$5.10
$4.80
$4.70
S P EC I F I C S
M01
M05
M09
M13
M17
M21
M25
M29
M33
O I L
11
Contango
Backwardation
$(11) $(9)
$(7)
$(5)
$(3)
$(1)
$1
$3
$5
$7
$9
$11
O I L
12
Agenda
Page
Oil Specifics The Big Picture: Macro Oil Fundamentals Whats the Story This Year? Natural Gas Specifics References, Websites and Data Releases to Watch
2 13 24 54 62
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13
How is crude oil related to other oils, like gasoline and heating oil?
Crude oil is what gets pumped out of the ground. Very little crude oil is consumed directly it is a raw material that has to be refined into other products, such as gasoline and heating oil Other products that are derived from crude oil include: Jet fuel, diesel, residual fuel oil, naphtha, kerosene, lubricants, tar, asphalt, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and plastics The difference between the price of a finished product, such as gasoline, and the price of crude oil is often referred to as the crack spread. A crack spread is a very simplistic representation of how much money a refiner makes by turning crude into products A refinery netback is the crude price at which a refiner breaks even, given the value of the finished product slate minus other costs to the refiner such as transport costs, refinery fuel costs, etc. A refinery margin is essentially the refiners profit i.e. the value of the product slate, minus the cost of crude inputs and other expenses
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy
T H E
B I G
P I C T U R E :
M AC R O
OI L
F U N D AM E N T AL S
14
P I C T U R E :
M AC R O
OI L
F U N D AM E N T AL S
T H E
B I G
15
OI L
F U N D AM E N T AL S
M AC R O
114.3
140.5
P I C T U R E :
Asia Pacific
North America
Africa
Middle East
T H E
B I G
16
Other 49%
F U N D AM E N T AL S
OI L
M AC R O
India 3%
Germany 3%
FSU 5%
Japan 6%
China 9%
P I C T U R E :
T H E
B I G
17
Extrapolation at today's MPG At 22 MPG At 24 MPG At 26 MPG At 28 MPG At 30 MPG At 30 MPG With Staggered Fleet Turnover
1.4 mbd
2.2 mbd
2.8 mbd
3.4 mbd
10
270 kbd
OI L
M AC R O
P I C T U R E :
6 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Source: JPM organ Energy Strategy , EIA
T H E
B I G
18
Producer Russia Saudi Arabia United States Iran China Mexico Venezuela Norway UAE Nigeria Kuwait Iraq Canada Libya Brazil UK-offshore Algeria Angola Kazakhstan Indonesia Qatar Malaysia Oman Argentina India Other
Volume 9,185 9,063 5,131 3,879 3,617 3,334 2,706 2,506 2,458 2,405 2,133 1,813 1,805 1,640 1,634 1,560 1,345 1,245 1,025 942 796 727 722 665 663 10,206
Share of Global Production 12.5% 12.4% 7.0% 5.3% 4.9% 4.6% 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 13.9%
The worlds biggest producers are not necessarily the same as the worlds biggest exporters. For example, the US and China produce a lot of oil, but export very little given high domestic demand OPEC members Saudi Arabia and Iran are the worlds biggest exporters of crude oil
B I G
P I C T U R E :
M AC R O
OI L
F U N D AM E N T AL S
T H E
19
F U N D AM E N T AL S
T H E
B I G
P I C T U R E :
M AC R O
OI L
20
A little history. . .
US Refiner Acquisition Price of Imported Crude US Refiner Acquisition Price of Imported Crude
In US$/bbl $100 $90 $80
F U N D AM E N T AL S
Nominal
Real
$70 Iran-Iraq
War
$60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Netback Pricing Exxon Valdez spill Soviet Union collapse 9/11 Asian Crisis
Hurricane Katrina & Rita Hurricane Ivan Venezuela Crisis, Gulf War II, Nigeria strike
P I C T U R E :
M AC R O
OI L
2004
2006
T H E
B I G
21
Until this bull run, loss of market share was a real concern for OPEC
Shifting Market Share Shifting Market Share
42% 41% 40%
F U N D AM E N T AL S
11.5
39% 38%
8.5 37% 36% 35% 34% '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 FSU Oil Production 7.5 OPEC Share of Global Production 6.5
P I C T U R E :
M AC R O
OI L
5.5
T H E
B I G
22
Cut Production
(6,6)
(1,10)
OPEC MEMBER #2
Given the chance that other members might cheat, and the noncheater could end up in his worst case scenario, all members have an incentive to cheat themselves
Cheat on Quotas
M AC R O
OI L
(10,1)
(3,3)
P I C T U R E :
All members have an incentive to cheat, even though they would all be better off sticking to quotas
T H E
B I G
23
Agenda
Page
Oil Specifics The Big Picture: Macro Oil Fundamentals Whats the Story This Year? Natural Gas Specifics References, Websites and Data Releases to Watch
2 13 24 54 62
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Ongoing oil buying interest from consumers and investors Iran noise; major Nigerian disruptions Call on OPEC crude still topping 30 million b/d in 2007 OPEC showing commitment to a $50-55 basket price
2006 crude forecasts as of May 2, 2006, 2007 crude forecasts as of Aug. 9, 2006. Natural gas forecast as of March 2, 2006 *Actual to date prices as of October 6, 2006 Note: All values are period averages. WTI & Brent in $/bbl; natural gas in $/MMBtu Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy
Y EAR ?
Crude Oil Price History, Forwards & Forecast Range Crude Oil Price History, Forwards & Forecast Range
US$/bbl $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13
Source: JPM organ Energy Strategy
Comfortable oil inventories Hurricane season less eventful than expected? Warm weather this winter to follow? Global oil demand growth moderating; slower economic growth ahead Downstream investment should start to hit the market in 2007-08 Reassessment of investors commodities allocations down the road as returns falter and interest rates rise?
25
WHATS
TH E
S T O RY
JPM Probable Range JPM Possible Range History Forward Curve JPM Forecast
THI S
TH E
S T O RY
THI S
Y EAR ?
WHATS
26
$4 $2 $0 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy
THI S
$0 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
Source: JPM organ Energy Strategy
S T O RY
WHATS
Although demand growth has moderated, we dont think the products story is over yet. New refinery capacity additions will pressure these markets by 20072008, but not yet this year. Spec changes in the US will be supportive psychologically if not physically
TH E
27
A 7 million bbl build in refined product inventories offset a 7 mb draw from crude. The level of crude remains much more comfortable than the level of refined product stocks Regionally in August, builds in the US and Japan offset draws in Europe and other areas
0 48 Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy , IEA, Gov n't & industry sources
THI S
S T O RY
1.54 1.49 1.44 0.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Five-Year Range Five-Year Average 2005 2006 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0.00 0.90
TH E
Note: Latest month is to-date only , not full-month projection Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy , IEA, Gov n't & industry sources
Note: Latest month is to-date only , not full-month projection Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy , IEA, Gov n't & industry sources
WHATS
28
3.0 2.5
Y EAR ?
TH E
S T O RY
THI S
WHATS
27-Sep-05
27-Oct-05
26-Nov-05
26-Dec-05
25-Jan-06
24-Feb-06
26-Mar-06
25-Apr-06
25-May-06
29
Unplanned PADD I (East Coast) PADD II (Midwest) PADD III (Gulf) PADD IV (Rockies) PADD V (West Coast) Hurricane Ivan Hurricane Katrina & Rita
0.6 0.3 0.0 Mar-02 Jul-02 Nov-02 Mar-03 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06
THI S
S T O RY
WHATS
While the US planned refinery maintenance program for October looks to be heavier this year than last year, unplanned outages are minimal compared to 2005. Planned maintenance is set to average 798 kbd offline in October, compared to 527 kbd offline in October of last year. Unplanned outages of several hundred thousand barrels for October 2006 compared to more than 2 million b/d lost in October 2005
30
TH E
-600 -800 -1,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: JPM organ Energy Strategy , IEA
THI S
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: JPM organ Energy Strategy , IEA
S T O RY
WHATS
TH E
Europe has always been structurally long gasoline but has become more so as vehicle demand shifts to diesel. The Atlantic Basin is now long gasoline. . .but shorter and shorter distillate
31
The US diesel sulfur limit drops by 97% this year to 15 ppm US refiners were required to meet the new standard by June 1; pipeline operators must meet the 15 ppm limit by Sept. 1; retailers must offer 15 ppm by Oct. 15 Dramatic changes to diesel standards underscore the challenge of not only making the fuel but also distributing it to customers. While US refiners have successfully ramped up ULSD production and inventories of the new spec have climbed steadily, there are still logistical challenges associated with the storage and transport of the cleaner fuel Ultra-low sulfur diesel is so much cleaner than others in the distillate family (heating oil, jet, kerosene) that operators will be challenged in how they batch/order the fuels in the pipe. Test flows have shown that the sulfur in ULSD will have to be far lower/cleaner in order to deliver fuel at the government-set limit to consumers. Separate storage tanks will also be required for distribution of ULSD
* Implemented in Beijing July 2005 ahead of 2008 Olympics; to be enforced nationwide 2010 ** Implemented in major cities in 2005; to be enforced nationwide in 2010 Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy, government & press reports
Y EAR ?
S T O RY
THI S
WHATS
TH E
32
RFG Inventories vs. RBOB/Alcohol Stocks RFG Inventories vs. RBOB/Alcohol Stocks
In million bbl 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Finished RFG RBOB w/ Alcohol
* Implemented in Beijing July 2005 ahead of 2008 Olympics; to be enforced nationwide 2010 ** Implemented in major cities in 2005; to be enforced nationwide in 2010 Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy, government & press reports
Y EAR ?
THI S
Major US gasoline spec changes slated for 2006: lower sulfur content limit and the elimination of the oxygen content standard, which will impact MTBE use While market concern, over the what is in effect an MTBE phase-out, has been dramatic, these worries are overdone. We are experiencing some hiccups along the supply chain during the present transition period, but these should work themselves out as the US has proven itself to be quite capable of blending components up to standard
33
WHATS
TH E
S T O RY
up to lawsuits Most of the industry are using ethanol because it replaces octane and cleanburning properties of MTBE and it is in compliance with renewable fuel standard Because of ethanols affinity to water, it cannot be transported by pipeline after mixing with gasoline
Reformulated gasoline for oxygenate blending (RBOB) is blended with ethanol
Y EAR ?
THI S
WHATS
TH E
S T O RY
34
Bearish
Comfortable oil inventories Hurricane season less eventful than expected. Warm weather this winter to follow? Global oil demand growth moderating; slower economic growth ahead Downstream investment should start to hit the market in 2007-08 Reassessment of investors commodities allocations down the road as returns falter and interest rates rise?
WHATS
TH E
S T O RY
THI S
Y EAR ?
35
$30 $20 $10 $'94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
TH E
S T O RY
THI S
WHATS
36
$60 $58 $56 $0 Nov06 May07 Nov07 May08 Nov08 May09 Nov09 May10 Nov10 May11 Nov11 May12 Nov12
Source: JPM organ Energy Strategy
WHATS
TH E
S T O RY
THI S
37
$3
$2
Backwardation
$45 $35 $25 $15
$1
Y EAR ?
$-
THI S
$(1)
S T O RY
Contango
$(2) '86 '87 '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
Source: JPM organ Energy Strategy
$5 $(5)
TH E
WHATS
We see contango as sustainable at these price levels. However, a compelling move lower (sub $50) could see backwardation return
38
1996-2002
2004-present
10/13/2006
$10 $$0 $(8) $(6) $(4) $(2) $$2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 M02-M24 NYMEX WTI (US$/bbl)
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy
S T O RY
THI S
WHATS
TH E
We see contango as sustainable at these price levels. However, a compelling move lower (sub $50) could see backwardation return
39
Energy Producers
(E&P companies)
Energy Consumers
(Utilities, airlines, railroads, industrials)
Trend Players
(Commodity Trading Advisors)
THI S
Down Significantly less day-today tactical hedging at high prices. Remaining deals large, occasional, one-off M&A related strategic hedges. Options strategies generally preferred over swaps, for downside protection with upside exposure Old Energy consumers have Active May trade anywhere Buyers The natural buyers in the energy Up If anything consumers have been actively hedging with from daily to annually markets. Consumers typically hedge 1-3 hedged more actively as prices have derivatives since the early-1990s depending on hedging program years into the future, but increasingly more risen, though options rather than sophisticated hedgers may go out as far as swaps have been the preferred 5-7 years in products with sufficient vehicle for upside protection with liquidity downside participation Old Although the mix of banks Active Trade daily making Buyers or Sellers Depending on customer No significant change, though in energy changes, banks have markets (flow and structured business and view of the market. Depending interest has arguably increased with been market-makers and risk business) and/or taking risk on customer business, banks may make price takers in energy since the (proprietary trading). May have markets as far as 10+ years into the future inception of these markets long or short term prop views Old CTAs have traded energy Active Fast moving, Buyers or Sellers Depending on market No significant change for years directional, tend to enter and trend exit positions quickly Old and New Not new to energy per se but more professional and putting more money towards this space in the last ~3 years Active Take proprietary risk daily. May have long or short term views, and take directional or relative value positions in the full range of energy products Buyers or Sellers Depending on view of the market. On average in recent years, hedge funds more long than short given price trend.Funds may participate in any part of the curve and have shown particular interest in owning deferred price and volatility, adding liquidity and price clarity to that part of the curve Buyers Institutionals enter the market almost exclusively from the long side via products like Commodities Indices and oillinked notes Up Generally more dollars in energy, but also more sophisticated and varied involvement in full range of energy products
Old Energy producers have Active May trade anywhere been actively hedging with from daily to annually derivatives since the early-1990s depending on hedging program
S T O RY
TH E
New Institutional investors participate in the energy space in the past ~3 years
WHATS
Passive Take long-term, generally directional views. Tend not to enter or exit positions on short-term price fluctuations
Up significantly Major inflow of money and interest in commodities as an asset class that really did not exist in a meaningful way 3 years ago
40
The oil industry cycles through periods of over- and under-investment. Refining and distribution (e.g. pipelines, tankers, terminals) are particularly pronounced examples of how years of under-investment due to poor margins can lead to capacity constraints down the road While under-investment in refining and distribution is not a permanent market feature, it is also not a driver that can be reversed overnight. We see tight downstream capacity influencing price until at least 200708, unless demand growth falters significantly
41
WHATS
TH E
S T O RY
THI S
0% -5% Apr-98 Mar-99 Feb-00 Jan-01 Dec-01 Nov-02 Oct-03 Sep-04 Aug-05 Jul-06 Jun-07
THI S
S T O RY
WHATS
TH E
Demand growth has moderated relative to 2004. We see this trend continuing for the balance of the year
42
1,750
Y EAR ?
1,000
THI S
250
S T O RY
WHATS
TH E
43
Energy Intensity Declines As GDP Increases Energy Intensity Declines As GDP Increases
Oil bbl consumed per US$1,000 GDP 9
Japan
China
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 250 5,250
OECD
Non-OECD
0 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 GDP (in billion current US$)
Source: JPM organ Energy Strategy , BP Statistical H andbook
10,250
15,250
20,250
25,250
THI S
S T O RY
Chinese oil demand growth will continue to be significant to the global balance, especially in the lead-up to the Beijing Olympics. But the energy intensity to growth ratio does moderate as countries get richer
WHATS
TH E
44
Downstream investment, or lack thereof, is cyclical and tends to overshoot in both directions Theres no reason to think that this investment cycle wont eventually be the same OECD demand exceeds OECD refinery capacity. That means that, increasingly, spare refinery capacity is in the nonOECD. That means that just like crude production most of the worlds refined products production is geographically far away from most of the worlds consumption
30 25 20 0 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05
TH E
S T O RY
THI S
WHATS
45
35% 30% 0%
THI S
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy, BP Statistical Handbook
S T O RY
WHATS
TH E
More refined products, in particular, have to travel greater distances to their end user. Ports, pipes, tankers, etc. are all an issue will they see the investment boom that refining is seeing?
46
0% -5% -10% Mar-98 Jul-99 Nov-00 Mar-02 Jul-03 Nov-04 Mar-06 Jul-07
TH E
S T O RY
THI S
WHATS
47
28 27 26 25 24 23 22
Y EAR ?
Quota
21 20 0 Oct-02 Mar-03 Aug-03 Jan-04 Jun-04 Nov-04 Apr-05 Sep-05 Feb-06 Jul-06
S T O RY
THI S
WHATS
TH E
OPECs market relevance has waned. The group hasnt had to cut production or show any discipline since March 2004
48
Expected Additions to Expected Additions to OPEC Capacity* (in kbd) OPEC Capacity* (in kbd)
US$/bbl Nymex WTI Price $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $Aug-06
2006 Saudi Arabia Iran Nigeria Algeria Venezuela Libya UAE 2007 Saudi Arabia Nigeria Algeria 2008 Saudi Arabia Nigeria Indonesia 2009-2010 Saudi Arabia Algeria Qatar 2006 2007 2008 2009-2010 2006-2010 Total 300 160 265 50 75 150 200
Spare Capacity
S T O RY
THI S
Feb-99
Aug-00
Feb-02
Aug-03
Feb-05
TH E
WHATS
* Excluding declines Note: This is not a complete list and is subject to change Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy, government reports, media reports
49
Iraq Iraq
In million b/d 4
Iranian Revolution
3 2 1 0
Gulf War II
'67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy , BP Statistical Handbook
Nigeria Nigeria
Y EAR ?
Venezuela Venezuela
Strike cripples production
In million b/d 3
In million b/d 4 3 2
THI S
S T O RY
1 0
'79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05
0
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy , BP Statistical Handbook
TH E
'67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy , BP Statistical Handbook
WHATS
50
More corrupt/risky
Less corrupt/risky
0% '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05
Source: JPM organ Energy Strategy , BP Statistical H andbook
THI S
Average of Country Risk Rating & Corruptionion Perception Index (0 = highest risk/most corrupt)
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy , BP Statistical Handbook, Transparency International, UNCTAD
S T O RY
WHATS
TH E
More and more of the worlds remaining oil reserves are in geopolitically risky parts of the world, and thats not going to change
51
Nuclear, 8%
43% 41% 39%
Y EAR ?
Renewable, 6%
Coal, 23%
37% 35% 0% '50 '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05
Petroleum, 40%
THI S
S T O RY
WHATS
TH E
Political rhetoric aside, oils share of US energy consumption is rising, the share of renewables has fallen slightly in each of the past 2 decades
52
Total Oil Imports, All Sources From Mideast Gulf From OPEC Members
Canada, 16%
Mexico, 12%
10% 0% '60 '63 '66 '69 '72 '75 '78 '81 '84 '87 '90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy, EIA
Source: JPMorgan Energy Strategy, EIA
S T O RY
THI S
WHATS
TH E
Foreign oil supplies are an ever growing percent of US demand. OPEC members supply just less than half of total US net oil imports and Middle East Gulf produces supply 20%
53
Agenda
Page
Oil Specifics The Big Picture: Macro Oil Fundamentals Whats the Story This Year? Natural Gas Specifics References, Websites and Data Releases to Watch
2 13 24 54 62
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54
The widespread adoption of liquefied natural gas (LNG) when and if it happens will change the gas market from a regional market to a global market. In other words, the development of LNG will make the gas market look more like the oil market
N A T U R A L
GA S
55
In the basis market hub locations trade at a differential to NYMEX futures contracts on a forward basis Hence leading to the ability to buy the NYMEX +/ the appropriate basis differential forward to hedge a future sale of the physical commodity Some of the most frequently quoted basis markets are: the Rocky Mountain region, the Houston Ship Channel Hub, AECO (Canada), and the Panhandle Hub
N A T U R A L
GA S
56
1 MMcf = 1,000 MMBtu 10 MMcf = 10,000 MMBtu = 1 NYMEX contract 1 Bcf = 1 billion cubic feet = 1,000,000 MMBtu 1 Tcf = 1 trillion cubic feet
N A T U R A L
GA S
57
Oil price is also a driver of gas price, because there is some degree of substitutability between the two fuels Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is a minor factor in the gas market now, but will become increasingly important as the market develops. LNG will make the gas market more global
58
N A T U R A L
GA S
Lower-48 Production
Canadian/Alaska Production
Demand
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: JPM organ Energy Strategy , EIA
GA S
The long-term gas price will depend heavily on LNG to fill the growing disconnect between demand from residential, commercial, industrial and power generation consumers and North American sources of supply The declining domestic production scenario makes LNG vital to satisfying projected US demand growth. . . or price will have to ration demand
59
N A T U R A L
Sustainable Capacity
Everett (MA)
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
N A T U R A L
Right now, LNG supply is the limiting factor for the US, not spare terminal capacity. LNG imports to the US should ramp up from late 2007 when new supplies from Trinidad and the Middle East come online contracted to meet US demand, likely to pressure US gas prices
60
GA S
S P E C I F I C S
9-Feb
6-Mar
9-Jul
3-Aug
28-Aug 22-Sep
N A T U R A L
GA S
61
Agenda
Page
Oil Specifics The Big Picture: Macro Oil Fundamentals Whats the Story This Year? Natural Gas Specifics References, Websites and Data Releases to Watch
2 13 24 54 62
O I L
&
G AS
B A S I C S
62
R EL EA S E S
T O
EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly Report (end of month) EIA Short Term Energy Outlooks (beginning of month) IEA monthly Oil Market Report (~10th of the month) Euroilstock inventory report (~10th of the month) CFTC Commitment of Traders report (Fridays)
R E F E R EN C E S,
W E B SI T E S
A N D
D A TA
63
Key websites
US Department of Energy, Energy information Administration www.eia.doe.gov
W ATC H
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries www.opec.org BPs Statistical Review of World Energy www.bp.com New York Mercantile Exchange www.nymex.com Commodity Futures Trading Commission www.cftc.gov International Energy Agency www.iea.org
R E F E R EN C E S,
W E B SI T E S
A N D
D A TA
R EL EA S E S
T O
64
Bloomberg codes
Prices: Prices:
Main energy page
W ATC H
EIA inventory data Global crude oil prices Exchange menu Nymex WTI crude Nymex heating oil Nymex gasoline Nymex natural gas IPE Brent crude IPE gasoil Cash values for refined products
R E F E R EN C E S,
W E B SI T E S
A N D
D A TA
R EL EA S E S
T O
65
Reuters codes
Prices: Prices: Main energy page
W ATC H
News & Info: News & Info: Q: ENERGY Q: EIAA Q: CLc1 Q: HOc1 Q: HUc1 Q: NGc1 Q: LCOc1 Q: LGOc1
Energy glossary ENERGY/3 Energy highlights Link to energy codes All energy news Oil news Gas news OPEC news EIA inventory report US refinery news Q: nTOPO or TOP/O O/CODES O OIL NGS OPEC EIA/S REF/US
EIA inventory data Nymex WTI crude Nymex heating oil Nymex gasoline Nymex natural gas IPE Brent crude IPE gasoil Cash values for refined products
W E B SI T E S
A N D
D A TA
R EL EA S E S
T O
Q: PRODUCT/1
R E F E R EN C E S,
66
R E F E R EN C E S,
W E B SI T E S
A N D
D A TA
R EL EA S E S
T O
67