Population

Hsu-cherng Chiang

While modern humans are generally believed to have been around for over 100 000 years, it is only in the past 10 000 years that total global population is believed to have ever exceeded a few million people - roughly the population of Madrid, Spain or Nairobi, Kenya (Kremer 1993). After the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (~10,000 BCE), population growth started to accelerate, doubling every 600 to 1000 years between 3000 BCE and 1000 AD. By 1800, it was growing fast enough to double in just one hundred years. Between 1959 and 2000 the Earth's population doubled in just 40 years! By one estimate, the number of new mouths to feed each year peaked in 1989 at around 87 million (roughly the equivalent of Ethiopia's current population). In 2010, the planet was still adding 1 million people every 4.8 days (US Census Bureau 2011).
Source: http://na.unep.net/geas/newsletter/images/Jun_11/Figure1.png

(1650 (1820 (1930 (2011 (2011 :

)5 ) 10 ) 20 9 ) 69 6229 4 ) 2317 639.7

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Environmental Impact

Source:Miller, G.T., Sustaining the Earth: An Integrated Approach, 7th ed.

The world population is expected to keep on rising during the 21st century, although its growth is projected to experience a marked deceleration during the second half of the century.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

A chart of changes in world population growth rate from 19502010 (red) and predicted changes in world population growth rate from 20102050 (blue). The original was created 6 Dec 2003 by Securiger from data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population)

Asia will remain the most populous major area in the world during the 21st century but Africa will gain ground as its population more than triples, passing from 1 billion in 2011 to 3.6 billion in 2100.
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

Source: http://na.unep.net/geas/newsletter/images/Jun_11/Figure4.png

Distribution of the world population by major area, medium variant, 1950, 2010, 2050 and 2100

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

Source: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/wpp2006.htm

Population of the 20 most populous countries in 2010 and 2050 (millions) 2010 2050

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York

The population of the world will be older

Globally, the number of persons aged 60 years or over is expected nearly to triple, increasing from 673 million in 2005 to 2 billion by 2050.

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2006/wpp2006.htm

Population by age groups and sex (percentage of total population)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision.

(%) 0-14 1989 1993 1999 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 315 326 284 206 204 204 199 191 103 111 126 139 136 141 144 144 212 215 158 66 69 63 55 48 -10 -22 6 15 38 19 24 35 27.5 25.1 21.4 18.7 18.1 17.6 17.0 16.3 15-64 65 66.5 67.8 70.1 71.6 71.9 72.2 72.6 73.0 6.0 7.1 8.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6

7-8 0-14 65 16

Source: http://www.cepd.gov.tw/m1.aspx?sNo=0000455

2010
2010 2060

2060

2060

2010

250

150

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 50

50

150

250
17

Some Sobering Facts

One-fifth of the worlds population live on less than $1/day 1.5 billion lack access to clean water 2.4 billion lack access to sanitary facilities 790 million are malnourished Environmental degradation is rampant Fertility rates highest in poorest countries

Millennium Development Goals

Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Achieve universal primary education Promote gender equality and empower women Reduce child mortality Improve maternal health Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Ensure environmental sustainability Forge a global partnership for development

Link: http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Development_Goals

Source: http://na.unep.net/geas/newsletter/images/Jun_11/Figure6a.png

Urban Agglomerations in 2009 (proportion urban of the world: 50.1%)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010

Urban Agglomerations in 2025 (proportion urban of the world: 56.6%)

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010

Proportion urban in 1950 of the 30 most populous countries in 2009

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010

Proportion urban in 2009 of the 30 most populous countries in 2009

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010

Basic Human Needs

Drinkable Water Edible Food Safe Housing Health Care An Education A Job

Urban environmental pollution

Waste water treatment Air quality smog Solid waste

Undesirable Impacts of Urban Sprawl Environmental pollution (Water, air, solid waste, ) Loss of crop land, forest land, and wetlands Fragmenting fish and wildlife habitats Increased impervious surfaces means more flooding soil erosion a larger ecological footprint

Videos
7 Billion, National Geographic http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc4HxPxNrZ0 7 Billion: Are you typical? National Geographic http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B2xOvKFFz 4 YouTube: National Geographic Channel http://www.youtube.com/user/nationalgeographi c http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rc5J3kUUqnI &feature=youtu.be&noredirect=1

References
Wikipedia (world population) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

World Population Prospects http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm World Urbanization Prospects http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.htm