BC Xuc Tien Xuat Khau-25052010

BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU
2009-2010
Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 1
Bnquyn
CcXctinthngmi(VIETRADE)
20LThngKit,HNi
Tel:84.4.39347628Fax:84.4.39348142
Email:vietrade@vietrade.gov.vn
Website:http://www.vietrade.gov.vn
Bo co cthchinvis phi hp ca nhmnghin cu thuc Trung
tm Nghin cu chnh sch v pht trin (DEPOCEN) gm:
NguynNgcAnh,NguyncNht,TrnThanhThy,NguynThTng
Anh,LThanhThy,PhmThMHnh,TrnThKiuMinh,NguynTh
MinhTh,NguynHngQun.
2 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

CcXctinthngmi(VIETRADE)
www.vietrade.gov.vn
BO CO XC TIN
XUT KHU
2009-2010
NHXUTBNLAONGXHI
MC LC
LI M U ...................................................................................................................................... 7
PHN I: GII THIU V PHNG PHP
1. Mc ch v ngha.......................................................................................................................... 9
2. Phm vi v ni dung nghin cu ....................................................................................................... 11
3. Phng php nghin cu ................................................................................................................ 11
PHN II: PHN TCH TNG QUT TNH HNH XUT KHU CA VIT NAM
TRONG GIAI ON 2008 2009
15
1. Tng quan v hot ng xut khu cc nm 2008, 2009

v nh hng xut khu nm 2010 ................................................................................................... 15
1.1 Tnh hnh cc mt hng xut khu ch lc: kim ngch v th trng .............................................. 16
1.2 Nhu cu th gii v nng lc cung ng ca Vit Nam:
c hi xut khu v pht trin th trng ................................................................................ 23
1.2.1 Xu hng nhu cu ca th gii trong giai on 2008-2009.......................................................23

1.2.2 Nng lc cung ng ca Vit Nam...............................................................................................24
1.3 Cnh tranh v cc ro cn thng mi .................................................................................... 26
1.4 Chnh sch pht trin xut khu ca Vit Nam v
cc Hip nh t do thng mi song phng v khu vc ............................................................ 30
1.4.1 Chnh sch pht trin xut khu ca Vit Nam 2008-2009........................................................30
1.4.2 Cc hip nh t do thng mi song phng v khu vc.........................................................33
1.5 nh gi xu hng hng ha xut khu .................................................................................. 35
1.6 nh gi xu hng th trng xut khu ................................................................................. 36
1.6.1 nh gi tnh hnh xut khu ca Vit Nam

vo mt s th trng chnh (s dng m hnh trng lc).........................................................36
1.6.2 So snh gia tim nng v thc t xut khu ca Vit Nam vi tng th trng .......................39
2. nh gi nng lc doanh nghip xut khu v cc nhn t quyt nh nng cao nng lc cnh tranh............... 41
2.1 Nng lc sn xut xut khu (border-in) ................................................................................. 42
2.2 Nng lc tip cn th trng th gii (border-out) ..................................................................... 44
2.3 Li th so snh v nng lc cnh tranh ca doanh nghip xut khu:
Cc yu t quyt nh thnh cng trong cnh tranh................................................................... 48
2.4 Tc ng ca vic gia nhp WTO v cc khu vc mu dch t do (FTA)

i vi mt s ngnh hng xut khu v doanh nghip xut khu ................................................ 53
2.4.1 Tc ng tch cc.........................................................................................................................53
2.4.2 Tc ng tiu cc ........................................................................................................................58
PHN III: D BO V CC KHUYN NGH
61
1. D bo chung v xu hng th trng xut khu ................................................................................... 61

1.1 Tiu dng ca khi OECD st gim .......................................................................................... 61
1.2 S tri dy ca cc th trng Chu ....................................................................................... 63
2. D bo v tng kim ngch v tc tng trng 2010 ........................................................................... 65

3. D bo v xu hng sn phm v th trng xut khu c th cho giai on 2010-2011 ................................ 67
4. D bo v kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam n nm 2020 .................................................................. 73
5. Cc khuyn ngh thay i cn thit v chnh sch nhm nng cao nng lc xut khu ................................... 75
5.1 Khuyn ngh v cc chnh sch ca Nh nc ........................................................................... 76
5.2 Khuyn ngh v chnh sch xc tin xut khu .......................................................................... 76
5.3 Khuyn ngh v hng ha xut khu v th trng mc tiu ........................................................ 79
5.4 Khuyn ngh v vic tham gia chui gi tr ton cu (Global value chain) ....................................... 80
5.5 Khuyn ngh chng trnh hnh ng .................................................................................... 80
PH LC 1: M T M HNH TRNG LC ............................................................................................ 85
PH LC 2: M T PHNG PHP D BO TRUNG BNH TRT ........................................................... 87
PH LC 3: KT QU KHO ST DOANH NGHIP BAN U.................................................................... 89
TI LIU THAM KHO....................................................................................................................... 93
LI M U
Giai on 20 nm i mi va qua, tnh t nm 1988 n nm 2008,

nhdubctinyntngvtngtrngxutkhucaVitNamcv
kimngchvkhilnghnghacngnhccumthngxutkhu.Tl
kimngchxutkhutrntngGDPcaVitNamtngt30%vouthp
k 1990 ln n 70% vo nm 2008. Tc tng trng kim ngch xut khu
trungbnhtrongtongiaionnykhong19%/nmcngviccumthng
cthayitheohngtngttrnghmlnggitrcngnghipva
dnghasnphmtrongtngngnhhngxutkhuchlc.Mcdqutrnh
thayinydinravitccnkhimtnnhnggpphnquantrng
trongvicgivnghotngxutkhuvnnhkinhtcaVitNamtrong
thigianqua,cbittrongnm2009khicuckhnghongkinhttoncu
tc ng trc tip n hng lot cc th trng xut khu quan trng ca
ncta.
Bn cnh nhng thnh tu n tng t c, hot ng xut khu
caVitNamtrongnm2009cngbclnhngyuimctnhchtchin
lc bt buc chng ta phi c nhng quyt sch t nn mng cho pht
trinxutkhubnvngtronggiaionphttrinkinht20112020.Nhng
yuimnytntitrongmtthigiandinhngkhngcchng
giiquyttngcbngccchnhschphhpvngbtbntrong,cng
vi nhng nh hng t cc bin ng mi trong xu hng pht trin ca
thngmiquct,tchngtatrcslachnhoctiptcconng
nhhinnayviktqunhntinlhiuqucautsnxutchoxut
khucxuhnggimdnhocphitmravhinthchanhngnhnt
thnhcngnhm: (1)thayiccu hnghavthtrngxutkhuph
hpvichinlcvtrnhphttrinkinht,(2)nngcaogitrgiatng
chosnphm,v(3)xydngnntngbnvngchosnxutxutkhuda
trn kh nng cnh tranh ca doanh nghip v trnh cng ngh v nng
sutlaong.
Trong bi cnh , vi chc nng tham vn v thc hin chnh sch
thngmitronglnhvcxctinthngmivphttrinxutkhu,btu
tnm2009,CcXctinthngmi(BCngThng)tchcthchinBo
coxctinxutkhuthngninvimcchxemxt,nhgihotng
xut khu tng nm v xut nhng khuyn ngh chnh sch v bin php
thchincthvtrunghn,trongkhungthigian23nm.Bococngc
thccoilngunthngtinthamkhophcvcngtcxydngviu
chnh chin lc xut khu quc gia cho thp k 20112020 v cc n pht
trinxutkhu5nmtronggiaionny.
CcXctinthngmixinchnthnhcmnTrungtmNghincu
chnh sch v pht trin (DEPOCEN) phi hp thc hin bo co ny.
Chngticngxinghinhnvnhgicaokinnggpcaccchuyn
giaquctvtrongnccaDnVIE/61/94HtrXctinthngmiv
PhttrinxutkhutiVitNamvphngphplunvcutrc,nidung
caboco.
Hotngxctinthngmibaogmnhiulnhvc,tuynhintrong
khunkhbocony,chngtichcptihotngxctinxutkhu.
Trong ln xut bn u tin ny, chc chn bo co cn nhng khim
khuytvhnchkhngthtrnhkhivhnhthc,cutrcvnidung.V
vy,CcXctinthngmirtmongnhncnhngkinnggpv
phnbincaccchuyngiavngnghipchtlngcabocotrong
nhngnmtingycngnngcao,nggpthitthcvocngtcthamvn
xydngchnhschthngmicaBCngThngvxutccbinphp
trin khai chnh sch kp thi v thc tin nhm p ng yu cu pht trin
ngycngcaocatnc.
THNGHI
CctrngCcXctinthngmi
PHN I
GII THIU V PHNG PHP

1. MC CH V NGHA
Sgiatngmnhmcatoncuhokinhtvtdohothngmii
hiccqucgiaphicchinlchinhpphhpvonnkinhtthgiiv
khuvc.HinhpvonnkinhtthgiichophpVitNamtndngc
thtrngthgiitoln,thuhtcvn,nmbtccngngh,kthut
vqunltintin,tngbctomtingcngnhnctrnhphhp
vinhucuphttrincngnghiphini.Trongnhngnmgny,mc
hinhpcannkinhtVitNamvonnkinhtthgiingycngtr
nn su sc. c bit, nm 2007, Vit Nam tr thnh thnh vin ca T chc
Thng mi Th gii, nm 2008 v 2009, cng vi vic hi nhp a phng,
VitNammphnvkktcchipnhthngmitdosongphng
vinhiuqucgiavvnglnhthtrongkhuvcvtrnthgii.
Trong sut qu trnh hi nhp vo nn kinh t th gii, xut khu (XK)
caVitNamngmtvaitrngycngquantrngtrongnnkinhtquc
dn.Theos liuthngk,tlkimngchxutkhutrnGDPtnglin
tc t mc khong 30% t u nhng nm 1990 ln ti 70% vo nm 2008
(XemBiu1).
Hinhpsuhnvonnkinhtthgiicngngnghavivicnn
kinhtVitNamsphthucnhiuhnvonnkinhtthgii,ctheomt
tch cc v tiu cc. Khng hong kinh t th gii 20082009 c tc ng
khngnhnnnkinhtcaVitNam,cbitlivikhuvcxutkhu.
Biu1chothytrongnm2009kimngchXKcaVitNamgimstso
vinhngnmtrc.TheosliucaTngccHiquan,kimngchxut
khunm2009caVitNamcht56,58tUSD,gim9,3%sovinm2008.
Do,VitNamcnxydngmtchinlcymnhphttrinxutkhu
hnghophhpvitnhhnhvnhucucathtrngthgii.Trongbi
cnhny,CcXctinthngmiphihpvinhmnghincuthucTrung
tmNghincuChnhschvPhttrin(DEPOCEN)xydngBocoXc
tinxutkhu20092010.
100
80
60
40
Vit Nam
20
0
19
9
19 0
9
19 1
92
19
9
19 3
9
19 4
95
19
9
19 6
97
19
9
19 8
99
20
0
20 0
0
20 1
0
20 2
03
20
0
20 4
05
20
0
20 6
0
20 7
08
20
09
T l kim ngch xut khu tnh trn GDP (%)
BIU 1: T l kim ngch xut khu tnh trn GDP ca Vit Nam (1990-2009)
Ngun: Marketlineinfo: http://www.marketlineinfo.com
Mc tiu ca bo co l a ra nhng phn tch nhn nh v tnh hnh

xutkhucaVitNamtrongnhngnmgnytmranhhngcho
nhngnmtiptheo,ngthicngaranhngkhuynnghchnhsch
nngcaonnglcxutkhu.
p ng mc tiu , bo co c xy dng thnh ba phn chnh: (i)
PhntchtngquttnhhnhxutnhpkhucaVitNamtrongccnm2008,
2009 v nh hng nm 2010; (ii) D bo kh nng xut nhp khu ca Vit
Namgiaion20102011;v(iii)Cckhuynnghvchnhschnhmnng
caonnglcxutkhucaVitNam.
2. PHM VI V NI DUNG NGHIN CU

Nm2008v2009lnhngnmmnnkinhtthgiicngnhkinht
VitNamtriquanhiubinng.Vicphntchcngnhdboxutkhu
caVitNamchcchnsgprtnhiukhkhn.Mtphnldoyutbt
nhgnlinvimitrngkinhtvmquct,vdnhngitakhng
th bit mt cch chc chn l khi no nhng nn kinh t ln ca th gii s
thot ra khi khng hong. Nhng l do quan trng hn l khi khng hong
xyrasdntinhngv,nhngthayivmtcutrccannkinht
thgii;iunykhinchoccthamscannkinhtthayi.Vvyvics
dngccs liutrong qukhc lng tham s dngchomc chd
bo,khimccthamsthayi,lmtcngvicytnhmohimvrt
dmcsailm.Do,trongphmvinghincucabocony,nhmnghin
cutptrungvonhnnhvphntchnhngxuhngthngmiln
v ang din ra trong nn kinh t th gii song song vi phn tch kh nng
xutkhucaVitNam.Mcdbocokthpccphngphpthngk
d bo vi kin ca cc chuyn gia thng mi nhiu nm kinh nghim ti
VitNam(doanhnghipxutkhu)vtithtrngnhpkhu(cquani
dinthngmiVitNamtincngoi),nhngnhnitrn,trongmt
mitrngytnhbtnhnhhinnay,ccconsclngnhvy,ch
nnsdngthamkho.
Ngoiphnmu,bococxydngthnhhaiphnchnh.PhnII:
Phntchtng quttnhhnhxutkhu caVitNam tronggiai on2008
2009; v Phn III: D bo v cc khuyn ngh. Trong phn II, bn cnh phn
phntchtngquttnhhnhxutkhutronggiaion20082009,bococn
isuvophntchcth10ngnhhngxutkhuminhncaVitNamv
nhng th trng xut khu ln cho tng ngnh hng. Ngoi ra, trong phn
ny, bo co cng cp n nng lc cung ng ca cc doanh nghip xut
khuVitNam.TrongphnIII,bocoaranhngdbovtnhhnhth
trng th gii trong 2 nm ti, tm nhn n nm 2015 da trn nhng tnh
toncanhmchuyngia,bngtnghpkincquanidinthngmi
VitNamtincngoivnghincucaccnhkinhtncngoi.
3. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU
thc hin yu cu nghin cu ca bo co, nhm chuyn gia s
dng kt hp mt s cc phng php nghin cu t tng quan ti liu, xy
dngmhnh,tinhnhiutrathca,nphntchvdbo.Qutrnh
nghincucchialmbagiaionnhsau:
GIAI ON I: Thu thp thng tin,baogm(i)Gpgcccnbqunlxctin

thng mi, cc chuyn gia, doanh nghip ngnh hng; (ii) Xc nh cc i
tngsckhost,ngnhhngvmthngkhost,cctiuchthng
tincnthuthptngng;(iii)Tphpvtngquancctiliu,nghincu
trc v nng lc, thc trng v d bo xut khu ca Vit Nam vi cc
ngnhhnglinquan;cctiliunghincutrcvthtrngthgii
vi cc ngnh hng tng ng. Bo co nghin cu cng s dng cc khi
nimccctchcnhNgnhngthgii(WB),Dinnkinhtth
gii, Qu tin t quc t (IMF), Trung tm thng mi quc t (ITC) a ra
nh b ch s h tr xut khu, ch s tp trung thng mi, b ch s v
thngmiqucgia
GIAI ON II: Thng nht phng php iu tra v phng php d bo
c c mt ci nhn tng quan t nhiu pha, nhm chuyn gia xc
nhcnphithuthpthngtinvccchthcnghincukhcnhaumi
phncabivit.Cth,phntngquanvhotngxutkhucaVitNam
cthchinthngquanghincutibn.Sliucsdngtrongphn
nylsliucthuthptccbngnhcngnhccnhgiclpca
cctchckinhtncngoinhNgnhngthgii,Trungtmthngmi
quct
phnhaicabivitphntchvnnglccadoanhnghipxutkhu
vcchthcnngcaonnglccnhtranh,nhmchuyngiakthps
dngphngphpthuthpsliuscpsdngkincaccchuyngia
ti cc c quan i din thng mi Vit Nam nc ngoi v cc doanh
nghipxutkhuVitNamcngvisdngccsliuthcp,cbitl
bocoktqukhostnnglccnhtranhcadoanhnghipxutkhuVit
NamdoTngccThngktinhnhnm2008.
Trongphndbo,nhmchuyngiasdngphngphpmhnhcn
cvosliukimngchxutkhucaVitNamtrong14nmt19952008.
Ngoi ra, nhm chuyn gia cng tham kho cc d bo m cc t chc nc
ngoi nh s dng kt qu nghin cu t trang web
http://www.marketlineinfo.comngiccthcnhiugctipcnkhc
nhauividbovtnhhnhxutkhucaVitNamtrongthigianti.
GIAI ON III: B sung s liu, xy dng m hnh v d bo
Trn c s thng nht v phng php nghin cu giai on II, nhm
chuyngiatinhnhthuthpbsungsliu.Ccsliuthcpcthuthp
tccboco,ttrangwebvsliuthngkcaccb,ngnhvcctchc
quctnhIMF,WB,ITCSliuscpcthuthpvtnghpcnc
voktquccphiuiutracgiticccquanidinthngmica
VitNamHoaK,NhtBn,TrungQucvccdoanhnghipxutkhu
VitNam.
MhnhdbochotnhhnhxutkhucaVitNamnm2010cla
chn trn c s ba phng php ca trung bnh trt l phng php trung
bnh trt gin n, trung bnh trt c tnh n sai lch tuyt i ca kim
ngch xutkhuquaccnm vtrungbnhtrt tnh nsai lchtngi
cakimngchxutkhuquaccnm.Phngphptrungbnhtrtctnh
nsailchtuyticakimngchxutkhuquaccnmlphngphpc
lchchunnhnhtclachnaradbochokimngchxut
khunm2010caVitNamvoccthtrngchnhnhHoaK,NhtBn,
Chuu
PHN II
PHN TCH TNG QUT

TNH HNH XUT KHU CA VIT NAM
TRONG GIAI ON 2008 2009
1. TNG QUAN V HOT NG XUT KHU CC NM 2008, 2009 V NH HNG
XUT KHU NM 2010
Trong giai on 19862008, Vit Nam lin tc t mc tng trng kim
ngchxutkhumccao(trungbnhkhong19%/nm),caohnmctrung
bnhtrongkhuvcvtrnthgii(XemBiu2).TheosliucaTngcc
Thngk,nm2008,kimngchxutkhucaVitNamt62,7tlaM
(tng29,1%sovinm2007),tlxutkhutrnGDPlntitrn70%.1Tuy
nhin,cngtheonhgicaTngccThngk,mcdtctngtrng
kimngchhnghoxutkhunm2008sovinm2007khntng,nhng
nu loi tr tr gi ti xut khu st, thp, vng v yu t tng gi ca 8 mt
hngchyu(duth,than,go,cph,caosu,httiu,htiu,ch)th
kimngchhnghoxutkhuchtng13,5%.2
VietnamCountryAnalysisReportIndepthPESTLEInsights,August2009
Tuynhin,mtimnglul,mcdkimngchxutkhutmctngtrngcaonhngVitNamvn
trongtnhtrngnhpsiu.Tnhcnm2008,nhpsiul18tUSD,tng26,8%sovimcnhpsiunm2007v
bng28,8%tngkimngchhnghoxutkhu.
2
Ngc li vi nm 2008, bc tranh kinh t ni chung v xut khu ni

ringcaVitNamtrongnm2009cphnmm.Donhhngnngn
cacuckhnghongkinhthinnay,kimngchxutkhunm2009cht
56,58tUSD,vimctngtrngm(gim9,7%)sovinm2008.Sgimst
nymtphndotcngkhchquancuckhnghonghinnay,mtphn
khcldochnhsccnhtranhhngxutkhucaVitNam.
BIU 2: Kim ngch xut khu Vit Nam v tc tng ca kim ngch xut khu
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
19
19 90
19 91
19 92
19 93
19 94
19 95
19 96
19 97
19 98
9
20 9
20 00
20 01
20 02
20 03
20 04
20 05
20 06
20 07
20 08
09
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Tc tng kim ngch xut khu

(%)
Kim ngch xut khu (Triu USD)
giai on 1990-2009
Kim
ngch
Tc
tng
1.1 Tnh hnh cc mt hng xut khu ch lc: kim ngch v th trng
Theo k hoch nm 2008, xut khu s t kim ngch 58,6 t USD, tng
22% sovi nm2007.Trn thct, xut khunm2008 tkimngch62,7 t
USD,vt4,7tUSDsovikhoch ra.Tuynhin,hotngxutkhu
nm 2009 khng nh kt qu t c ca cc nm trc. Tnh n ht
thng12nm2009,tngkimngchxutkhucaVitNamt56,58tUSD,
gim9,7%sovicngknmtrc,khngtmctiuratrongKhoch
phttrinkinhtxhinm2009vikimngchxutkhul71tUSD.Bng1
chothyditcngcakhnghongkinht,phnlnccngnhhngxut
khu u b nh hng, th hin qua kim ngch xut khu gim tng i
nhiusovicngknm2008(duthgim40%;dtmaygim1,3%;giydp
gim15,8%;gogim8%;ggim10%).
Ngoi tc ng trc tip ca khng hong kinh t dn ti nhu cu st

gim, mt s mt hng xut khu ch lc gp kh khn do phi i mt vi
nhngrocnthngmimidoccncarahnchnhpkhutrong
tnh hnh nn kinh t ca h ang gp kh khn. Mt iu nhn thy l cc
hnh vi bo h thng mi ngy cng tinh vi, nht l ti cc th trng xut
khulncaVitNam.
BNG 1: Kim ngch xut khu hng ho ca Vit Nam nm 2009
Gi tr xut khu 2008
(t USD)
Gi tr xut khu 2009

(t USD)
Gi tr xut khu 2009 so

vi 2008 (%)
Tng gi tr xut khu
62,685
56,584
90,3
Du th
10,357
6,210
60
Dt may
9,120
9,004
98,7
Giy dp
4,768
4,015
84,2
Thy sn
4,510
4,207
93,3
Go
2,894
2,662
92
G v sn phm g
2,829
2,550
90,1
Cao su
1,603
1,199
74,8
C ph
2,111
1,710
81
in t, my tnh v
linh kin
2,638
2,774
105,1
My mc thit b v
dng c ph tng
1,860
2,028
109,1
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k (2009)
Mtiuhinnhinlngoivictngslngxutkhuthvictnggi
trxutkhucnphthucmtphnvogithgiivnhngthtrngxut
khu ln. Do khi nhng th trng ny c bin ng th kim ngch xut
khubnhhng.Tuynhin,sstgimkimngchxutkhukhngchn
thun l do cc kh khn khch quan m ng thi cng cho thy sc cnh
tranh ca cc mt hng xut khu cn hn ch, nng lc cnh tranh ca cc
doanhnghipchacao.DoVitNamhinhpvonnkinhtthgiivit
cchlmtnnkinhtnh,ctrnhphttrinthp,phnlnccmthng
xutkhu umi ch dng li dng th, s ch, gia cng nn t gi tr gia
tng (go, c ph, giy da, du th). Do kinh t Vit Nam s chu nhiu
bin ng trc din bin bt li ca nnkinh t thgii.Ccmthngxut
khuchaadng,phongph,slngccmthngxutkhumickim
ngch ln, tc tng trng nhanhchanhiu.Xutkhu chyudavo
khaithclithsosnhsncmchakhaithcclithcnhtranhthng
quavicxydngccngnhcngnghipcmilinktchtchvinhau
hnhthnhchuigitrgiatngxutkhuln.Khngnhngth,VitNamvn
chatndngtritlichtvicgianhpWTO,cchipnhthngmi
songphngvkhuvckktgiaVitNamvccitckhaithcht
timnngcaccthtrnglnnhHoaK,EU,TrungQuc
CuckhnghongkinhttoncunratquIVnm2008tcng
mnh ti hot ng xut khu ca Vit Nam. Trong nhng thng cui nm
2009,nnkinhtthgiibtucduhiuphchi,ccmthngxut
khuchlccaVitNamtngnhvlngxutkhunhngdogitrn
thtrngthgiithphnsovigitrckhnghongnnkimngchxut
khugimrrt.
Diyltngquanvtnhhnhxutkhuca10mthngxutkhu
chlccaVitNamtrong2nm20082009(10mthngtkimngchxut
khucaonhttrong2nm20082009).
Du th
TheosliucaTngccThngk,nm2008,xutkhuduthcaVit
Namtkimngch10,3tUSD,tng21%sovikimngchnm2007.Tnhn
htnm2009,xutkhuduthtkimngch6,21tUSD,gimti40%kim
ngchxutkhusovinm2008.Ccthtrngchnhnhpkhuduthca
VitNamlAustralia,Singapore,Malaysia,HoaKvTrungQuc.Dokhng
hong kinh t, gi du th trn th gii lin tc gim mnh. Nu vo thng 7
nm2008giduvokhong147USD/thngthnthng10nm2009gi
duchvokhongtrndi70USD/thng.Dovickimngchxutkhu
duthcanctatrongnm2009gimgnmtnasovinmtrcliu
hontoncthdonc.Mtnguynnhnkhcdntisgimstca
kimngchduthxutkhuldothchinmctiugimxutkhuduth
ra nc ngoi ca Nh nc trong Chin lc pht trin xut khu giai on
20012010.
Dt may
TngkimngchxutkhuhngdtmaycaVitNamnm2008t9,12
t USD, tng 18% so vi nm 2007. Tnh n ht nm 2009, kim ngch xut
khu hng dt may t khong 9 t USD, dn u v mt gi tr xut khu

trong s cc mt hng xut khu ch lc, tuy nhin so vi nm 2008 gim
1,3%.Ccthtrngnhpkhudtmaychnhcancta:HoaK,EU,Nht
Bn,iLoan,Canada.
Cthnhnthy,nhhngcakhnghongkinhtnxutkhumt
hngdtmaylkhngln,mtphnldodtmaythucnhmccmthng
phcvtiudngmangtnhthityu.ylmthngccutnhycmi
vithunhpngitiudng,dokhithunhpcangitiudngthayi,
lngcuvmthngnythayikhngngk.Mtthunlikhctrnth
trngdtmayxutkhuhinnaylTrungQuc,ithcnhtranhchnhca
VitNam,angcxuhnggimdnsthamgiatrongcclnhvcxutkhu
cgitrgiatngthptptrungngunlcsnxutvoccmthngcgi
trgiatngcaohn,dophnnogimbttnhkhclitcacnhtranhtrn
thtrngdtmayxutkhumVitNamhinanglmtchthtchcc.
TheomtnghincugnycaVinKhoahcXhiVitNam,ngnhdt
maybtunhnlicnhngxutkhuvislngngk.Doc
thkvnglsangnm2010,dtmaycthtcmctngtrngbng
mctngtrngcanhngnmtrckhnghong.
Giy dp
TngkimngchxutkhugiydpVitNamtrongnm2008t4,767t
USD,tng20%sovinm2007,trongkhinm2009t4,015tUSD,gim15,8%
sovinmtrc.ThtrngxutkhuchyucamthnggiydplEUv
HoaK.Tinhngthtrngny,hnggiydpxutkhucaVitNamcnh
tranhvimthngcngloixutkhutccncBraxin,n,Campuchia,
Banladesh. Tng t nh ngnh dt may, ngnh giy dp xut khu ca Vit
Namkhng b nh hng qunng n bi cuc khng hong kinh t th gii.
TheobocominhtcaBCngThng,nhiudoanhnghiptrongnc
k c n hng sn xut n nh vi sn lng tng ng nm trc v
pngckhong7080%nnglcsnxuthinc.Thmch,mtsdoanh
nghipcnlmvotnhtrngthiunhncngpngnhucusnxutcc
nhngxutkhu.CcdoanhnghipsnxutVitNam(trongncvlin
doanh)ulnhngnvcungcplntrongccchuicungcpdagiyca
cc thng hiu ln v uy tn nh Nike, Adidas, Puma. Thay v nhng nh
hngkhnghong,snxutdagiyVitNamangchunhngtcngtiu
cc ca cc hng ro k thutnh thuchng bn phgi.V d in hnh l
xuthintnhtrngnhiuitccangnhdchchuynnhmysnxut
giysangCampuchiavncnyangchngthuquanuiGSPca
EUvkhngchuthuchngbnphgigiycmda.3
Thy sn
Nm 2008, tng kim ngch xut khu hng thy sn ca Vit Nam tng
18%sovinm2007,t4,5tUSD.Tngkimngchxutkhuthysnnm
2009 t 4,207 t USD, gim 6,7% so vi nm 2008. Cc bn hng ln trong
ngnhthysncaVitNamlEU,NhtBn,HoaKvHnQuc.
HoaKl th trngnhpkhuthysn lnth hai caVitNam,sau
NhtBn.XutkhuthysnvoHoaKtrongthigianquakhnggimm
ngclicncxuhngtng(mcdthtrngHoaKchunhhngrt
nng n ca cuc khng hong) l do thy sn cng l mt hng c cu t co
gintheothunhp,dotchutcngcassuythoikinht.
Go
Theo s liu ca Tng cc Thng k, trong nm 2008, xut khu go ca
VitNamtngsovinm2007t4,6triutn(tng3,3%)vikimngchl2,8
tUSD(tng99%,tnhtheogiFOB).Nm2009,tngkimngchxutkhugo
caVitNamt2,662tUSD,gim6,7%sovinm2008.Ccthtrngxut
khugolncaVitNamhinnaylPhilippin,Indonesia,CubavIraq.c
bit,trongnmnay,tnglnggoxutkhucaVitNamsangChuPhiv
Trungngtngmnh.
G v sn phm g
Sau cc thng suy gim lin tip v gi tr xut khu, n thng 7 nm
2009,thtrnggvsnphmgcduhiuphchi.Tnhnhtnm
2009,mthngnytkimngchxutkhu2,55tUSD,gim10%sovicng
knm2008.HoaK,EUvNhtBnvnl3nhnhpkhuglnnht
caVitNam.Sdkimngchxutkhugbinngmnhhnkimngch
ccngnhdtmay,goldoglmthngtmangtnhthityu.Mthng
nyccukhnhycmtheothunhp,docththynhhngcacuc
khng hong ti chnh n ngnh l r nt hn n cc ngnh c cu t nhy
cm theo thu nhp. V l , s phc hi ca ngnh s din ra chm hn cc
ngnhktrn.
Bocotmtthotngngnhcngnghipvthngmithng11v11thngnm2009caBCngThng
Cao su
Nm2008,xutkhucaosucaVitNamt645nghntn,tngng
vi1,6tUSD.Xutkhumthngnynm2009t1,199tUSD,gim25,2%
sovicngknm2008.Theodoncaccnhkinhthc,gictrnth
trngcao su ni ringv nhm thtrngnguyn liuth ni chung s hi
phctrckhikinhttoncuhiphc,dohotngcaccquuctrn
thtrngkhn(futuremarket)ivinguynliuth.
C ph
KimngchxutkhucphcaVitNamnm2009,t1,71tUSD,gim
19%sovicngknm2008.CcncnhpkhuchnhcacphVitNaml
c,Italia,TyBanNha,B,c,HoaKithcnhtranhlnnhtcaVit
NamlBraxin,ColombiavIndonesia.Xtvgitr,kimngchxutkhucph
VitNamtnm2001nnaytngtrungbnhkhong30%/nm.cbitlsau
khigianhpWTO,kimngchxutkhucphcaVitNamtngti53%(theo
thngkcaHiphiCphCacaoVitNamVICOFA),VitNamtrongnhiu
nmlinlmttrongccncxutkhucphhnguthgii.
in t, my tnh v linh kin
Xutkhumthngint,mytnhvlinhkincaVitNamnm2009
t kim ngch 2,774 t USD, tng 5,1% so vi nm 2008. Phn u n nm
2010,kimngchxutkhumthngnyst5tUSD.Ccthtrngnhp
khunhmhngint,mytnhvlinhkincaVitNaml:HoaK,Nht
Bn,ThiLan,TrungQuc,Singapore,HLan...
int,mytnhvlinhkinlmthngctimnngphttrin,hahn
manglikimngchxutkhulnchoVitNam,mtphnldotrongnhngnm
gnylnsngutncngoivolnhvcin,intvsnxutlinh
kinmytnhVitNamtngmnhvinhiudnln,emlinguncungdi
dochoxutkhupngnhucukhnglvmthngintvlinhkin
mytnhcathgiivimcnhpkhucao(khong500tUSDnm2007).
My mc, thit b v dng c ph tng
Nm2009,xutkhumthngmymcthitbvdngcphtngt
2,028tUSD,tng9,1%sovinm2008.Songsongvivicxutkhumymc
thitb,VitNamcnglncnhpkhunhiumthngnyphcvcho
snxuttrongnc.
BNG 2: Kim ngch xut khu phn theo th trng v mt hng ch lc ca tng th trng
Th trng
Nm 2008
Mt hng
ch lc
EU
ASEAN
Nht Bn
Kim ngch
(nghn USD)
2.508.276
Da giy
1.710.649
Hng dt may
1.703.627
Hng dt may
1.442.029
Hi sn
1.149.207
Hi sn
959.455
Du th
2.824.388
Du th
2.209.413
Go
1.524.966
Go
1.227.565
731.637
My tnh v ph
kin my tnh
5.105.740
Hng dt may
4.994.915
Da giy
1.075.130
1.100.183
1.063.990
Da giy
1.038.826
Du th
2.177.391
Hng dt may
954.075
Hi sn
830.154
Hi sn
760.725
820.056
Dy in v
dy cp in
63.9502
1.056.988
Than
935.843
Than
742.844
Cao su
Du th
603.530
Sn v cc sn
phm t sn
Cao su
T trng trong tng kim ngch

xut khu ca Vit Nam (%)
Nm 2008
Nm 2009
17,31%
15,08%
16,26%
13,62%
18,93%
19,89%
13,62%
11,02%
7,24%
10,72%
586.884
Hng dt may
Hng dt may
Trung
Quc
(nghn USD)
Mt hng
ch lc
Da giy
My tnh v ph
kin my tnh
Hoa K
Kim ngch
Nm 2009
856.712
506.104
Ngun: Tnh ton ca nhm nghin cu da trn s liu ca Tng cc Thng k v Tng cc Hi quan
iunglulmcdHoaKvNhtBnlccthtrngxutkhu
chnhcaVitNam,nhngxutkhucaVitNamvohaithtrngnycn
rtkhimtnsovinhucunhpkhucah.Nm2008,xutkhucaVit
Nam vo Hoa K v Nht Bn ch chim ln lt 0,65% v 0,92% tng kim
ngchnhpkhucahaincny.TrgihngxutkhucaVitNamsang
TrungQuc,qucgiangdnnhtthgii,cngcht4,53tUSD,chim
7,2%tngtrgihngxutkhucncnm2008.
Bncnh,sliuthngknm2009chothysstgimngkkim
ngchxutkhusangnhngthtrngchlc.Kimngchhnghoxutkhu
sangthtrngHoaKt11,3tUSD,gim4%sovicngknm2008;tip
nlEUt8,7tUSD,gim22%;ASEANt7,9tUSD,gim27%;Nht
Bnt6,3tUSD,gim34%4.Trongkhi,thng12/2008,VitNamvNht
Bn,sau9phinmphnktnm2005,kkthipnhitckinht
JVEPAmthipnhtdohathngmi,dchv,bohutvkhuyn
khch thng mi in t gia Vit Nam v Nht Bn. Tuy nhin, iu ny
cngkhngcuvncsgimsttrongtrgihngxutkhuVitNam
sangNhtBn,khiNhtBnangtrongthiksuythoikinht.Nhngcon
strongnm2009lichothykimngchxutkhucaVitNamsangNht
Bnstgimmnhnhttrongccthtrngxutkhuchnh.
Kim ngch xut khu nm 2009 gim 9,7% so vi nm 2008, c th c
giithchdonhhngcakhnghongkinhtlmchogicccmthng
xutkhugimtrongkhislngxutkhuvntng.Cth,mtsmthng
xut khu ch lc tng v lng xut khu nhng do gi trn th trng th
giithpnnkimngchnm2009gim,tronggotng32,8%vlngv
gim7,8%vkimngch;cphtng16,8%vlng,gim17,3%vkimngch;
duthtng8%vlng,gim43%vkimngch;thantng7,1%vlng,
gim19,4%vkimngch(GSO,2009).
Tuynhin,mttrongnhngnguynnhnquantrngdntitngtrng
m trongkim ngch xut khu Vit Nam nm2009 lvic tptrungln hot
ngxutkhucaVitNamvomtsthtrngnhtnhtrongkhinhng
th trng ny u b nh hng nng n ca suy thoi kinh t th gii (kim
ngchxutkhucaVitNamsang20thtrnglnnhttkhong85%tng
kimngchxutkhu5;chtnhringxutkhusang3thtrngchnhHoaK,
NhtBn,EUchim60%kimngchxutkhucaVitNam)6.
1.2 Nhu cu th gii v nng lc cung ng ca Vit Nam: c hi xut khu v pht
trin th trng
1.2.1 Xu hng nhu cu ca th gii trong giai on 2008-2009
Giaion20082009,dobnhhngcacuckhnghongkinhtton
cu,nhucunhpkhucathgiigimhnsovinm2007.Tuynhin,
nhng mt hng xut khu mi nhn ca Vit Nam vn l nhng mt hng
xutkhutimnngtrnthtrngthgii,cthnh sau:Nhm hng nng
lng(duthvthan)vncthtrngxutkhulndonguncunghn
4
TngccThngk,Bocotnhhnhkinhtxhinm2009vsliutTngccHiquan
Theotnhtontsliuthngksbnm2008caTngccthngk
Vietnam:CountryAnalysisReportIndepthPESTLEInsights,August2009
hp v nhu cu s dng nng lng ngy cng tng trn th gii. Nhm hng
nng,lm,thyhisncngcthtrngxutkhulnvcbit,yhuht
lnhngthtrngtruynthng,ckimngchnhpkhulnnhNhtBn,
Hoa K Ring vi nhm hng cng nghip ch bin, y l nhm quan trng
nht,chimttrngtrn70%tngkimngchxutkhu.Dtmay,giydp,sn
phmg,nhavdycpinlnhngmthngcccthtrngnhp
khunhiunht.Ngoira,mtsmthngnhtixch,vali,d,snphm
t cao su, sn phm t gang thp hay tu thuyn cc loi u l nhng mt
hng c nhu cu nhp khu cao trong nm 2009, mc trn 30%; Ring mt
hngtuthuynlnhntminicnhgilmthngctctng
trngnhanhtrongccuhngxutkhucaVitNam.
1.2.2 Nng lc cung ng ca Vit Nam
Cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu a ti nhng bin ng v s
lng,kimngch,ccuthtrngxutkhutrongxuhngxutkhuchung
ca Vit Nam. Nhng bin ng ny cho thy s thay i v mt lng xut
khutrcbicnhkhkhnchungcannkinhttoncu,ngthicng
cho thy phn no nng lc cnh tranh xt trn gc nhn quc gia trong xut
khucaVitNamcnnhiuhnch.
Khnghongkinhtnrattyustcngntnhhnhtraoihng
hagiaccnctrnthgii,tuynhintcngnhthnovvimc
rasaoscnphthucvonilchaysckhngcatngnnkinht
v mc hi nhp ca nn kinh t trong nn kinh t ton cu. c s
nhgiy,tondinxttrngcqucgiavnnglcxutkhuca
Vit Nam, bn cnh mt ci nhn ngn hn vi cc thng tin cp nht, cn c
mtcinhnbaoquthntrongmtkhongthigiandixcnhc
vtrcaVitNamttrongtngquanviccqucgiaxutkhukhctrong
khuvcvtrnthgii.Trongphnny,nhmnghincudatrnbChs
thngmi(TradePerformanceIndex)caTrungtmThngmiquct(ITC
InternationalTradeCenter)aramtsnhgivkhnngxutkhu
caVitNam.McdbChsnychtnhtonsliutnm2002nnm
2006, song k t nm 2006 n nay, c th thy c cu nn kinh t Vit Nam
khngthayinhiu,cngnghsnxutcngchacsthayiln,do
chsnyvncnnguyngitrkinhttrongthiimhinti.
Bng 3 di y tng hp cc ch s phn nh hot ng xut khu ca
mtsqucgia,trongcVitNam,theotnhtoncaTrungtmThng
miQuct(InternationalTradeCenterITC).Bng3nychothysthayi
vkhnngxutkhuca5ncChu,trongcVitNamtrongkhong
thigian5nm(20022006).NibtnhttrongbnglTrungQucviccch
s rt n tng v thc trng xut khu, vi gi tr xut khu tng 3 ln ch
trongvng5nm,ttrngtrongxutkhutoncucaTrungQuc(8,0831%)
gp23,4lnttrngcaVitNam(0,3461%).Mcdvy,VitNamcnglmt
trongsnhngncctcphttrinxutkhunhanhtrnthgii,t26%
theo gi tr xut khu v 9% theo lng xut khu tnh trong nm 2006 (theo
tnhtoncaITC).
BNG 3. Ch s hot ng thng mi (TPI) ca mt s quc gia v vng lnh th
Quc gia/
vng
lnh th
Gi tr xut khu
T trng trong xut

khu ton cu (%)
Tng trng trong

gi tr xut khu (%)
(Nghn USD)
2006
2002
S lng cc nh xut
khu ln trong nc c
gi tr xut khu t
100.000 USD tr ln
2006
2002
2006
T trng ca gi tr 3 mt
hng xut khu ln nht
trong tng gi tr
xut khu (%)
2002
2006
2002
2006
325.595.970
968.935.601
5,1191
8,0831
31
21
4.495
4.644
8,9
11
Malaysia
95.058.291
160.669.231
1,4788
1,3403
14
3.041
3.397
22,9
17,7
Thi Lan
68.107.865
130.580.046
1,0708
1,0893
18
2.925
3.281
12,4
12,2
Indonexia
57.158.717
100.798.616
0,8987
0,8409
15
2.923
2.941
21,5
22,8
Vit Nam
16.706.053
41.484.709
0,2627
0,3461
26
1.578
2.107
28,1
28,1
Trung
Quc
2002
Tng trng
trong lng
xut khu (%)
2002
2006
Ngun: Trade Performance HS: Exports and Imports of all industries 2006, Trade Competitiveness Map, International Trade Center (ITC)
Tuynhin,cnggingnhTrungQuc,VitNamangphiimtvi
mtthctlccmthngxutkhuclngxutkhuln,songgitrxut
khucnchacao.Cthnusosnhviccnctrongkhuvc,chnghn
nhMaylaysia,ththytuylngxutkhucancnychtng2%nhng
to ra 14% tng trng trong gi tr xut khu; hay 8% gia tng v
lngxutkhucaThiLantngngvivictnggitrxutkhunc
nyti18%.Chcnlmmtphptnhkhngin,viginhMalaysiat
cmctngtrngvlngxutkhu9%thvinnglcxutkhuhin
ticancny,mctngtrngvgitrxutkhucthtngti63%trong
khi i vi Vit Nam, thc t 9% gia tng trong lng xut khu ch tng
ngvi26%giatngtronggitrxutkhu.iunychothymtsnc
ngaytrongkhuvccnhngtinbhnhnsoviVitNamtrongvicto
ragitrgiatngchohngxutkhu.
Slngccnhxutkhulntrongnccgitrxutkhuhnghat
100.000 USD tr ln cng c ci thin r rt, cho thy kh nng xut khu
cngnhvthngycngccithincaccdoanhnghipxutkhuVit
Nam. iu ny c th d dng nhn thy v khi c trong tay mt lng hng
ha c gi tr ln, ngi xut khu t nhiu s c sc nh hng ti th

trngvnhiungixutkhucscmnhthtrnghplislemli
thmnhchoncxutkhu.Cnlurng,tuyslngccnhxutkhu
lncaVitNamccithin,nhngyvnlconskhkhimtnv
cnphicmrnghnna.
Chsvttrngcagitr3mthngxutkhulnnhttrongtnggi
trxutkhucnglmtchscnhiunghakinht.Ttrngnycngln
cngchngttmquantrngca3mthngnytigitrxutkhucaquc
gia.Trong5nclachnnghincu,ttrngnyVitNamllnnht
(28,1%), cho thy i vi Vit Nam, 3 mt hng xut khu ch lc c vai tr
quantrnghnctrongvictoragitrxutkhu,nhngngthicngcho
thysphthuccaVitNamvo3mthngnyllnnht.Do,khic
bin ng ca 3 mt hng ny trn th trng th gii, Vit Nam s l nc
trongs5ncnghincuchunhhngnngnnhtcasbinng.Do
ngoicctntivgitrgiatngthptronghngxutkhu,vslng
hnchccnhxutkhuln,thvnphiadngccuhngxutkhu
cngcncsquantmthchng.
1.3 Cnh tranh v cc ro cn thng mi
iphvikhnghongkinhttrongncdostgimtngcugy
ra,nm2009lnmmccncpdngnhiuhngroivithngmi
quct.Vicpdngcchngrothngmimtphnldochnghabo
h, ng thi mt phn cng l m bo chnh sch phc hi kinh t ca
tngnc.7Tuynhin,nunhttcccncupdngchnhschboh
nythnguycslrtnghimtrngchonnkinhtthgiinichung.Mc
dchotithiimhinnaycthnhnnhrngchnghabohvcbn
s khng quay tr li, nhng hng lot cc nc v ang p dng nhiu
hngroboh,kchngrokthutlnhngrophikthut.
Nhng hng ro thng mi hin ang c cc nc p dng c kh
nnggythithilnvludinxutkhucaVitNam.Cchngrony
cpdngrtadngvhnhthcnh:ccdngthubsung,hnngch,
cc bin php phng v thng mi (bin php chng bn ph gi, chng tr
cp,tv)...Nhngrocnthngminyangcnguycgiatngticcth
http://www.baomoi.com/Home/KinhTe/vitinfo.com.vn/Cacnuoccanhtranhxaydungraocanthuongmai
moi/2426495.epi
;
http://dddn.com.vn/20090508104321713cat134/raocannguyhiem.htm
;
http://www.vietnamplus.vn/Home/Cacraocanthuongmaicantrophuchoikinhte/20097/10753.vnplus
7
trng xut khu ca Vit Nam8. Cc hng ro ny c th lm gim ng k

hiuqucanhngnlctmkim,mrngthtrngvnngcaonnglc
cnhtranhcahngxutkhucaVitNamtrongthigianquavkhintrin
vngxutkhutrnnbpbnh.Vvy,viciphvvtquanhngro
cnnytrthnhcngviccpbchvcbitquantrngivisnxut,
xutkhucaVitNamhinticngnhtrongtnglai.
Ngoira,nhngkhkhngpphitqutrnhcnhtranhquctcng
lmttrongnhngthchthclnmVitNamphiimtkhithamgiavo
thngmiquct.Cnhtranhdinrattccccp:hngha,doanh
nghip, quc gia. Cc sn phm ca doanh nghip khng ch gp s cnh
tranhthtrngncngoi,mngaycthtrngtrongnc,cbitl
khiVitNammcathtrng,gimthunhpkhu,xabtrcpCnh
tranh s cn khc lit hn i vi chng ta khi m nng lc cnh tranh cn
yu. Trn cp doanh nghip, kh nng cnh tranh l tng hp cc yu t
bn trong ln bn ngoi: l kh nng ca doanh nghip v qun l, sn
xut,tipth,vtrnhcngngh,nnglccacngnhnphhpvinhu
cuviukinbnngoi.
Cc doanh nghip ang phi i mt vi nhng quy nh v thc thi
quynshutrtu,tunthccquynhvnhnmcvxutxhngha,
bo h quyn shutr tu.Mc dcc hng ro phithu quan cct
gimivimtsmthngvmtsthtrng,nhhnngchxutkhu
hng dt may vo th trng Hoa K v EU..., nhng cc doanh nghip Vit
Namvnphiimtvicchngrokthutmingycngtinhvihntheo
cc quy nh ring ca mt s nc. Cc chuyn gia kinh t nhn nh rng
trongkhkhn,ccnnkinhtuangcxuhngtngcngccrocn
thng mi. Ngn hng Th gii cng b, t Hi ngh thng nh G20 vo
thng11/2008chonnay,ccncthucG20pdng47binphphn
chthngmi.
Khnghongkinhtkhinccrocnthngmicdnglnngy
cng nhiu hn ch hng nhp khu. iu ny buc cc doanh nghip
trong nc phi n lc v mi mt thch ng vi nhng quy nh mi
khtkhehn.
Diylmtsquynhmi,angvspchiulc,trongnm2008,
2009v2010mtsthtrngxutkhucaVitNam.
http://www.baomoi.com/Home/KinhTe/vitinfo.com.vn/Cacnuoccanhtranhxaydungraocanthuongmai
moi/2426495.epi;http://dddn.com.vn/20090508104321713cat134/raocannguyhiem.htm;
8
a. Th trng Hoa K
Thng12/2009,mtlutmicaHoaKcbanhnhvthcthi,buc
cclhngcdatrnnhpkhusphichuskimtrabiBanThanhtrav
An ton thc phm (FSIS). Theo t chc ny, cc quy nh kim tra s nh
nghacdatrnvphmvibaotrmcaccquynhscpdngvic
schbincdatrn,trongstnhncciukinnuivvnchuync
ncschbin.olutNngnghipHoaK2008(FarmBill2008)dkin
chiulctngy112010snhhnglnnvicxutkhuctravcba
sacaVitNam.Trcht,nuctra,cbasaVitNambnhnghalil
catfishthslitngqunlcaolutny(theoFarmBill2002ctra,c
basacaVitNamkhngphilcatfishtngichungcdatrn,mthuc
dngpangasius).
Th hai, trong lut c mt iu khon gi l chnh sch tng ng, c
nghalccqucgiaxutkhucdatrnvothtrngHoaKphipngcc
iu kin tng ng vi Hoa K v lut php, nng lc thc hin lut, kim
sot nng lc sn xut... Do vy, trong trng hp B Nng nghip Hoa K
(USDA)chorngcngnghipnuivchbinctra,cbasacaVitNamkhng
tngngviiukincaHoaKthchcchnctracaVitNamsbcm
xutvoHoaK,lchakbthanhtra,gimstlintccaUSDA.
NgnhxutkhugcaVitNamvoHoaKcngsbnhhng
nghimtrngbiolutLaceysaichiulctngy2252008.T1
42009lthiimbtbucnptkhaivittcccgiaodchthngmilin
quannthcvtvccsnphmtthcvt.LutLaceybucnhnhpkhu
khaibochititivitngloisnphm,chnghntnkhoahccathc
vt(theogingvloi),gitrnhpkhu,khilngthcvt,tncaqucgia
mthcvtcthuhoch(cthkhcvincxutxthnhphm).Quy
nhnysnhhnglnnccnhxutkhugVitNam.
TheoybanAntonsnphmtiudngHoaK(CPSC),lutmivan
tonsnphmnhpkhuvoHoaKcthngquaktngy1482008.
Theo,ttcccsnphmdtmayxutkhuvothtrngHoaKstun
th theo nhngquynhmichnhthcchiulct thng2/2009.yban
ny s tng cng gim st nghim ngt hn na cc quy nh an ton sn
phmnh:tnhdchycavi,cmtuyticcsnphmcdythtvng
ctrno,cbitlotrem.Mcphtiviccnhnhpkhuhngdt
maycaHoaKkhiviphmcngstnglnn15triuUSD.Trcymc
phtnytialvitriuUSD.
Hngmaymcvgiydpdnhchotremcngcnhngquynhmi,
vlngchtrongsnphmvtrongsnbngoicasnphmhinnayl
600ppm,nhngbtutngy14/9/2009lngchtrongsnbngoicasn
phmchcn90ppmvlngchtrongsnphmchcn300ppm9.
b. Th trng EU
T ngy 112010, Quy nh s 1005/2008 ngy 2992008 ca Lin hip
Chuu(EC)vthitlpmththngkimsotnhmphngnga,ngnchn
v xa b cc hot ng khai thc, nh bt thy sn bt hp php (illegal,
unreportedandunregulatedfishingIUU)chiulc.Quynhnyyucu
ttccclhnghisnkhaithcphicchngnhntntukhaithc,vng
bin khai thc..., nu thiu s khng c php nhp vo EU. y l yu cu
kh p ng c trong thi gian cn li ca nm 2009, khi EU l th trng
nhpkhuthysnlnnhtcaVitNam.Ccchuyngiathngminhn
nh,chnhschnycthtrthnhmthngrophithuquanivithy
snVitNam10.
Cng ti th trng EU, ni ti hng may mc xanh l ni ti cc sn
phmpngccctiuchunsinhthiquynh,antonvsckhoi
vingisdngvkhnggynhimmitrngtrongsnxut.Nunh
tnhtrngtrnxyraivihngdtmaycaTrungQuc,thttyus
xyraivingnhdtmaycaVitNamvccncChukhc.Nhvy,
trongcuccnhtranhquytlitsaukhihnngchdtmaycdbvtiu
chunEcofriendlycEUpdng,throcnthngmixanhlmt
thchthc,trngilnivittcccncxutkhuhngdtmayvoth
trngny,trongcVitNam.
c. Th trng Canada
CquanidinthngmiVitNamtiCanadacngkhuyncocc
doanhnghipxutkhusangthtrngnycnlutunthnhngquinh
trongLutDnnhnvqungcohngdtmayvLutThuhiquan.Ngoi
ra,chtliusidngtrongqunotremcntunthquynhvchy.
C quan i din thng mi Vit Nam ti Canada cng cho bit, nh xut
khuvnhnhpkhuthnggiaodchdatrncsmuhng,dovycc
mu hng cn phi tun th ng quy nh v tiu chun ca Canada v an
ton,bn,trnglng,chtliu,chtlng.
9
http://www.vietnamplus.vn/Home/Cacraocanthuongmaicantrophuchoikinhte/20097/10753.vnplus
10
http://www.tuoitrevhn.com/?act=news&cat=64&sub=64&id=34904
d. Th trng Nht Bn
Khngpdngnhiurocnthngminhccthtrngkhc,nhng
Nht Bn cng c nhiu quy nh v hng ha nhp khu, bao gm: nhng
hng ha b cm nhp khu, nhng hng ha cn giy php nhp khu v
nhnghnghachnngchnhpkhu.Trongnhngquynhny,quynh
vnhpkhucvsnphmlmtclmttrongnhngquynhnghim
ngtnht.MtsloicbcmnhpkhucnmtsloictntrongCng
cvthngmiqucttrongvicbunbnccloingthcvtcnguy
ctuytchng(CITES)phinhpkhutheohnngch.Nhngquynhny
nh hng rt nhiu n xut khu ca Vit Nam v thy hi sn l mt mt
hngxutkhuminhncaVitNamvNhtBnlmttrongbanhnhp
khuthyhisnlnnhtcaVitNam.
e. Th trng Braxin
Gny,ccdoanhnghipcaBraxinlntingcnhbovsthamgia
qunhanhvothtrngBraxinvkhuvcNamMcaccqucgiaChu,
lmchothphncaBraxingimstngk.Nm2008,ChnhphBraxin
thc hin iu tra chng bn ph gi i vi nhiu nhm, mt hng Trung
Quc.Hinti,Braxinpthuchngbnphgiivinhiumthngca
TrungQucvscntiptcduytrthm6thngna,trongcgiydp
(mthnggnnhxutkhuchlcsangthtrngBraxincaVitNam).Do
vy,khngloitrvicBraxinsiutrachngbnphgiivihngho
VitNamnichung(nhtlvisnphmgiydp).
1.4 Chnh sch pht trin xut khu ca Vit Nam v cc Hip nh t do thng
mi song phng v khu vc
1.4.1 Chnh sch pht trin xut khu ca Vit Nam 2008-2009
C th ni chnh sch pht trin xut khu ca Vit Nam trong 2 nm
20082009chunhhngcanhngnhhngchinlctrongnpht
trin xut khu giai on 5 nm 20062010 (B Thng mi 2006). Mc tiu
tngqutcannylphttrinxutkhuvitctngtrngcaovbn
vng,lmnglcthcytngtrngGDP.ymnhsnxutvxutkhucc
mthngclithcnhtranh,ngthitchccphttrinccmthngkhcctim
nng thnh nhng mt hng xut khu ch lc mi, theo hng nng cao hiu qu
xutkhu.Chuyndchccuxutkhutheohngymnhxutkhunhngmt
hngcgitrgiatngcao;tngsnphmchbin,chto,snphmchmlng
cngnghvchtxmcao,gimdnttrnghngxutkhuth.Cngtheon
ny,tctngtrngkimngchxutkhuhnghabnhqunhngnms
tmc16,5%mtnmvnnm2010kimngchxutkhustkhong
70tUSD,tctngtrngkimngchxutkhudchvbnhqunst
16,3%mtnm.
Trong nm 2009, do nh hng ca cuc khng hong ti chnh v suy
thoikinhttoncu,tnhhnhsnxuttrongncgpnhiukhkhn,mc
tiu tng trng ca tng kim ngch xut khu c iu chnh t 18%
xungcn13%.Vimctiutng13%,tngkimngchxutkhunm2009cn
t71tUSD.Trongnm2009,nhmhngclithsosnhtngicaoca
Vit Nam hin nay l nnglmthu sn cn t t nht l 16,5 t USD kim
ngchxutkhu,tnghn2tUSDsovinm2008.Nhmhngcngnghip
ch bin, b phn ang ng gp hn 56% tng kim ngch xut khu ca c
nc,kim ngchcanhmnynm2009cnt tnhtl 37,5tUSD, tng
thm4,5tUSDsovinm2008.Trongkhi,mthngkhongsnckim
ngchlnnhtlunaylduththnm2009sphictgimkhilngxut
khudnhphnngkchoNhmyLcduDungQut.Kimngchxut
khuduthnm2009cthgimgn4tUSDsovinm2008.npht
trin xut khu giai on 5 nm 20062010 cng nh cc k hoch pht trin
xut khu cc nm 2008, 2009 u xc nh, cc th trng ch lc vn l th
trng Chu (Nht Bn, ASEAN, Trung Quc, Hn Quc, i Loan, Hng
Kng),Chuu(chyulEU),BcM(HoaK,Canada)vchuidng
(Australia). Ngoi ra, tip tc khai thc, thm nhp mt s th trng truyn
thnghocthtrngminhNga,Trungng,MLatinhvChuPhi.
BNG 4. C cu th trng xut khu (%)
Th trng
C cu nm 2008
Tng kim ngch bnh

qun
2006 - 2010
C cu nm 2010
(D kin)
Chu
44,5
14,1
45,5
ASEAN
16,2
12,0
11,5
Trung Quc
7,2
14,5
10,7
Nht Bn
13,6
9,2
12,4
Chu u
18,3
18,9
22,0
16
15,0
20,5
Chu M
20,6
19,4
24,0
Hoa K
18,9
19,0
23,1
Chu Phi
1,9
23,3
2,8
Chu i Dng
6,7
15,7
7,7
EU-25
Ngun: n pht trin xut khu giai on 5 nm 2006-2010 v s liu thng k ca B Cng Thng 2009
Cc ch th tham gia xut khu

Cngvinhhngchungltiptcthuhtsthamgiamnhmu
tcakhuvcdoanhnghipcvnutncngoinngcaonnglc
snxutvchuyngiaocngnghchoccngnhsnxuthnghoxutkhu
trongnc,khuvcdoanhnghipcvnutncngoistiptcnng
dnttrngnggptrongkimngchxutkhucaVitNamtronggiaion
20062010.Dkin,nnm2010khuvcdoanhnghipcvnutnc
ngoisnggpkhong67%,khuvcdoanhnghip100%vnuttrong
ncnggp33%trongtngkimngchxutkhucacnc.
BNG 5. T trng xut khu tnh theo khu vc kinh t
Nm 2008
Nm 2009
Nm 2010
Giai on
2006-2010
Ni dung
KN
(triu
USD)
T trng
(%)
KN
(triu
USD)
T
trng
(%)
KN
(triu
USD)
T
trng
(%)
KN
(triu
USD)
T
trng
(%)
Tng XK hng ho
52.254
100
60.148
100
69.298
100
264.497
100
Doanh nghip
100% vn trong
nc
18.288
35,0
20.330
33,8
22.868
33,0
95.483
36,1
Doanh nghip c
vn u t nc
ngoi
33.966
65,0%
39.818
66,2
46.430
67,0
196.014
63,9
Ngun: n pht trin xut khu giai on 5 nm 2006-2010.
Theo cch phn loi ca Tng cc Thng k, ch th xut khu ca Vit

Namcchiathnhhainhm,baogmkhuvckinhttrongncvkhu
vccvnutncngoi.Quanstchothy,sauhn20nmtinhnhi
mi,khuvccvnutncngoingycngnggpvaitrquantrng
vo hot ng xut khu ca t nc. Chnh ph cng dnh nhiu u i
nhmkhuynkhchccdoanhnghipcvnutncngoithamgiaxut
khu. T nm 1998, cc doanh nghip FDI c xut khu nhng hng ho
khngctronggiyphput.Nhngthayitrongnglichnhsch
gp phn lm tng hiu qu xut khu ca khu vc c vn u t nc
ngoi.Thctnhngnmquachothytlccdoanhnghipcvnut
ncngoithamgiaxutkhungycngnhiu 11.Nm2004,tlxutkhu
trungbnhtrongccdoanhnghipFDIngnhgiydp,maymcvintln
ltl98,9%,82,2%v68,5%.cbittnm2004nnay,khuvcnyu
nggptrn50%kimngchxutkhu,trthnhmtnglcchnhchotng
trngxutkhuniringvtngtrngkinhtnichung.Cth,nm2008,
khuvccvnutncngoinggp34,5tUSDtrongkimngch
xutkhu,chim55,1%(nm2007:57,2%;nm2006:57,9%).Nm2009,khuvc
nytiptcnggp29,9USDchokimngchxutkhu,chim52,7%.Nghin
cutsliucaTngccThngkchothy,ktnm2004tinay,khuvc
kinhtcvnutncngoilintcxutsiu,trongkhikhuvckinht
trongnclintcnhpsiu.Cth,nm2008,khuvckinhtcvnut
ncngoixutsiu6,63tUSD,khuvckinhttrongncnhpsiu24,66t
USD. Nm2009, nhp siucakhuvckinhttrongnc xpx 10,73t
USD,trongkhikhuvckinhtcvnutncngoitiptcxutsiu5,03
tUSD.
1.4.2 Cc hip nh t do thng mi song phng v khu vc
Trongnhngnmqua,VitNamthchinchnhschmcavhi
nhp su hn vi nn kinh t th gii, th hin thng qua vic Vit Nam gia
nhpnhiutchcthngmisongphngvaphng,vangm
phnnhiuhipnhthngmi,kchipnhthngmitdo.
Nm2007lnmVitNamchnhthctrthnhthnhvincaTchc
ThngmiThgii(WTO),mtmcquantrngnhdutintrnhmca
v hi nhp. Sau khi gia nhp WTO, c bit l trong nm 2008 v 2009, Vit
Namtchccymnhhnnaqutrnhhinhpvtdohathngmi,
thhinquavicmphn,kkt,phchunmtlotcchipnhtrongv
ngoikhiASEAN.
Trongnm2008,vitcchlmtthnhvincaHiphiccqucgia
ng Nam (ASEAN), Vit Nam cng cc nc thnh vin khc hon
thnh m phn k kt cc tho thun hp tc trong ni b khi ASEAN.
CcHipnhtrongnibkhiny(Hp1)cccncASEANbtu
kkttthng12/2008vsthcschiulckhittcccncASEAN
kktvhonttthtcphduyttrongnc.
11
NghincucaGiosTrnVnTh,ihcWasedaTokyo2004
Hp 1. Cc Hip nh ni b khi ASEAN m Vit Nam tham gia trong nm 2008

- Hip nh thng mi hng ha ASEAN (ATIGA) thay th Hip nh CEPT/AFTA (1992) v d kin c
hiu lc vo cui nm 2009;
- Hip nh u t ton din ASEAN (ACIA) thay th cho Hip nh khu vc u t ASEAN (AIA) v Hip
nh v xc tin v bo h u t ASEAN.
- Gi cam kt th 7 trong khun kh Hip nh khung ca ASEAN v dch v (AFAS).
- Mt s tho thun hp tc, cng nhn ln nhau trong lnh vc y t, xy dng.

Cngtrongnm2008,cccucmphnhipnhthngmitdogia
ASEANviccitcngoikhictrinkhai.CthlASEANhon
thnhmphnkkt3hipnhlnvi4itcquantrnglNhtBn,
n,AustraliavNiuDiln.ylnhngHipnhFTAtondin,trngi
vinidungrngvphctp,iuchnhnhiulnhvcnhthngmihng
ha,dchv,ut,muasmchnhph,hiquan,shutrtucbit,
sangnm2009,Australia,NiuDilnvncngnhnVitNamlnn
kinhtthtrng.ycnglmtthnhcnglntronghotngkinhti
ngoinm2008.Ngoira,ASEANcngktthcmphnHipnhu
tASEANTrungQucvHipnhutASEANHnQuc.
Hp 2. Cc hip nh Thng mi t do ASEAN k vi cc i tc trong nm 2008
- Hip nh i tc kinh t ton din ASEAN - Nht Bn (AJCEP) (k kt ngy 1/4/2008 v c hiu lc
t 1/12/2008)
- Hip nh thnh lp Khu vc thng mi t do ASEAN vi Australia v Niu Diln (AANZFTA);
- Hip nh Thng mi hng ha ASEAN- n (AIFTA);

Nm2008,VitNamcnghonttmphnHipnhitckinht
VitNamNhtBnsaugn2nmmphn,honttchuicungnggitr
giaVitNam,NhtBnvccncASEANkhc.Theo,NhtBnmca
th trng nng sn cho Vit Nam mc cao so vi cc nc ASEAN khc.
Trong hon cnh xut khu ang gp kh khn, vic c c Hip nh FTA
viNhtBnlmtnlcln,khngnhngmrachimichohngxut
khucaVit Nam, m cn bo mcho hngxutkhuVit Namkhng b
kmcnhtranhsoviccnccFTAsongphngviNhtBnnhThi
Lan,Indonesia,MalaysiavPhillipines.
1.5 nh gi xu hng hng ha xut khu

Nhcpphntrn,nguynnhntrctiplmsuygimxutkhu
trongnm2009ldonhucuthgiigim.Mtnguynnhnnalginhiu
mthngxutkhucaVitNamcnggimmnhtrongnm2009.Nnkinh
tVitNamthamgiavothtrngthgiivitcchmtncctrnh
cngnghchaphttrin,bivy,hngxutkhucachngtachyulgo,
ch,cph,giyda,duthCuvnhngmthngnythngtcogin,
nndoanhthubnhngthngbinngcngchiutheogi.Gihngha
VitNamtrongnm2009gimcthgiithchbimtsnguynnhnsau:
- Cuc khng hong kinh t ton cu khin nhiu nc lm vo suy thoi
kinh t, nhiu ngi lm vo cnh tht nghip, thu nhp ca cc h gia
nhbgimst.Bivy,khnngchitrvssnlngchitrcangi
dnccncnhpkhuhngVitNamcngbgimtheo,khinchogi
hngVitNamthphndkin.
- NhngmthngnngsncaVitNamthngcchtlngkmng
uvthphnsoviccnckhctrnthgii,dovicsdngnhiu
thuctrsu,phnbnhahc,kotheogihnghabgimxungthp
hnsovigitrnthtrngthgii.Vd,chVitNamchbnc
vi gi 1.100 USD/ tn, trong khi gi ch nguyn liu th bnh qun trn
thgiil2.200USD/tn).
- HinnayVitNamvncnncthangcngnghthpsovikhuvcv
thgii,dovyccmthngchlcvnchlnhngmthngnngsn
vnhngmthngth,chaquachbin.Nhngmthngnychus
nh hng ca hin tng gi cnh ko nn trong iu kin suy thoi
kinhthinnay,khimcgichungtrnthtrngthgiisuygim,gi
hngxutkhucaVitNamchunhhngnngn.
Bi vy, mc d xut khu nhiu mt hng tng nu xt v lng xut
khu(gotng34,1%,cphtng14,4%,htiutng6,0%),tuynhindothc
tgigimmnhnnkimngchxutkhuvnstgim(trgigoxutkhu
bng92,2%cngknm2008,cph:80,3%;htiu:86,9%).
Nh vy, vic khng t ch tiu tng trng mt phn do nhng l do
khchquanemlinhngmtphndonhngnguynnhnchquantni
tinnkinhtVitNam.Bivy,vntrachoVitNamlphinngcao
trnh cng ngh, cht lng sn phm, cng nh a ra nhng bin php
nhmchuyndchccumthngxutkhucthphntnrirotrong
trnghpgixutkhugimnhhinnay.Xutkhukhngbnhhng
lnsovixutkhucaccnckhcldoduytrmcgithp.iunych
cnghanhtthitronggiaionkhnghongngnhn.Khikhnghong
ko di hoc phc hi th vic duy tr xut khu nh hin nay s ngy cng
gimdnvedasphttrinbnvngcatonxhi.
1.6 nh gi xu hng th trng xut khu
1.6.1 nh gi tnh hnh xut khu ca Vit Nam vo mt s th trng chnh
(s dng m hnh trng lc)
Nhm mc ch nh gi kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam chu nh
hngcanhngnhntno,nhmnghincusdngmhnhtrnglc12.
Mhnhnynhgiccnhntcthnhhngnhthnotilungxut
khugiahaincitc.Ccnhntcthnhhngtilungxutkhu
baogm:quymthtrng(dnscahaincitc),quymkinht(GDP
cahaincitc)vkhongcchalgiahainc(khinimtngng
khongcchgiahaivtth,khongcchnycngxathlchpdncngyu
v ngc li). Ngoi ra, m hnh nghin cu ny tnh n c nhng tc ng
cahipnhthngmihocnhnguithngmivngbingii
giaVitNamvccncitc.Mhnhsdngsliuvkimngchxut
khucaVitNamvi8ncvkhuvckinhtnh:HoaK,EU,ASEAN,
TrungQuc,n,HnQuc,NhtBnvAustraliatrongccnmt1995ti
2008(14nm).
Cch thc chn s liu:ngunsliucsdngtrongboconycly
tthngkcacctchcquctnh:Qytintthgii(IMF),Ngnhng
thgii(WB)nhsau:
Thunhpbnhqunungicsdnglthunhpdanhngha
dothunhpthctcaccncccungcptiIMFsdngmc
gigctheoccnmkhngngnht.S liuvthunhpbnhqun
ungicthuthptheoccnmtnm1995tinm2008.
Khongcchalcsdnglkhongcchalctnhn
quymdns,tngthchinltnhkhongcchthaithnhph
cdnslnnhtcahainc.
12
MhnhtrnglccgiithiulnutinbiTinbergen(1962)vLinnemann(1966)
Nhvy,mhnhnyxuthin3nhmyutnhhngnlungxut
khutVitNamtincitc:
NhmyutnhhngticungbaogmGDPcancxutkhu.
Chsnycdonlscgitrdng,thhinmiquanh
cng chiu ca GDP nc xut khu v kim ngch xut khu ca
VitNam.
Nhm yu t nh hng ti cu bao gm GDP v dn s nc nhp
khu. GDP ca nc nhp khu tng th hin kh nng sn xut ca
qucgia tngv nh hng ca iu nyti kim ngch xutkhu
caVitNamscthdinratheohaichiuhng.Mtl,GDPnc
nhp khu tng gy kh khn cho vic xm nhp ca hng ha Vit
NamdohnghaVitNamsphicnhtranhkhclithnvihng
hasnxuttincnhpkhu.Hail,GDPcancnhpkhutng
th hin kh nng chi tr ca ngi dn nc nhp khu tng v vi
hnghathngthngthiunythhincuthtrngnhpkhu
stngvltnhiungmngchoxutkhucaVitNam.Dn
scancnhpkhuthhinquymcathtrng,dboscmi
linhthunchiutikimngchxutkhucaVitNam.
Nhmyuthpdnhaycntrbaogmchnhschthngmica
Vit Nam, c th trong m hnh ny l vic Vit Nam c hip nh
thng mi song phng vi nc i tc hay khng. Nhn t ny
cdonlctcngcngchiutikimngchxutkhuca
VitNam.Ngoira,nhntvkhongcchalgiahaiqucgia,
nh hng ti cc ph vn chuyn gia hai quc gia (thng kh
thayi)slmthnchchokimngchxutkhucaVitNamti
ncitc,donchsclinquantikhongcchalsc
gitrm.
Kt qu phn tch
Ch s R2 t mc 92,47% th hin tnh chnh xc ca m hnh trng
lngtronggiithchvquanhthngmisongphnggiahainci
tc(cthlktquphntchphnnhstti92,47%sovithct),ngayc
chsR2ciuchnh,ctnhnnhhngxucavicanhiubin
vomhnhcngtcmcrtcaol90,86%.Nhvy,mhnhchokt
qu c tnh cht thng k v n phn nh c khong hn 90% thc t bin
ng v kim ngch xut nhp khu ca Vit Nam trong 14 nm (19952008).
Hnna,ttcccchslinquanticcbingiithchuctnhchtthng
kmctrn99%13.
KtquphntchkhngnhvaitrquantrngcaGDPcaVitNam
cngnhGDPcaccncitcivikimngchxutkhucaVitNam.
GDP ca c Vit Nam v nc i tc u c nh hng cng chiu ti kim
ngchxutkhucaVitNamvccchsnyctnhchtthngk.Hnna
chsnyltngilnvnutnhGDPcaVitNamvncitctng
1% th kim ngch xut khu tng 1,2%. iu ny c th l gii v pha cung,
GDPVitNamtnglnthtnggitrhnghavdchvctoratrong
lnhthncxutkhutngln.Vphacu,quymkinhtcancnhp
khu(GDPncitc)thhinkhnngchitrcathtrngcngnhloi
hnghamthtrngmongmunsdng,doncngctcngln
tikimngchxutkhuhnghacaVitNam.
Nhmyuthpdnhaycntrcquantmtrongmhnhnybao
gmkhongcchalgiaVitNamvincitc,vicVitNamchip
nhthngmisongphngvcchungngbingiiviccncitc
haykhngcktquphhpviktqudon.ChsvvicVitNam
chipnhthngmivincitccngnhchsvvicVitNamc
chung ng bin gii vi nc v khu vc i tc cng c nh hng cng
chiu ti kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam. Hip nh thng mi song
phnghayccuitrongnhpkhuhnghacaVitNamlmtnhnt
cbitquantrngvncngthhinchiphcaqutrnhxutkhu.Bingi
vvicVitNamcchungngbingiivincitccngcnhhng
lntikimngchxutkhucaVitNam.
Mhnhcngchoktqutrichiugiakhongcchalgiahainc
vkimngchxutkhucaVitNam.ylmtchsphhpvidon
vkhongcchalthhinchiphvnchuyncahngha.
Mt iu c bit chng ta nhn thy y l nh hng tri chiu ca
quy m dn s (dn s nc i tc i vi kim ngch xut khu ca Vit
Nam). y l mt ch s c th ni l tri ngc vi d on v logic thng
thngbidnstlthunviquymthtrng(tngcuthtrng,dn
stngdntitngculnhnvdbovquanhcngchiutikimngch
xutkhu).Ktqunycthclgiidigckhnngcungngsn
phmxutkhucaVitNamcnhnchvchatndngcchims
tngvtngcuncitcmangli.
13
KtqucamhnhtrnglcvhpsgiithchvmhnhtrnglcctrnhbytrongPhlc1
1.6.2 So snh gia tim nng v thc t xut khu ca Vit Nam vi tng
th trng
Ch s Tp trung thng mi (Trade Intensity) c tnh ton bng t s
giathphnxutkhu(exportshare)cancxutkhu(thesourceregion)
tincnhpkhu(thedestination)vthphnxutkhucacthgiiti
ncnhpkhu.
Tij=(xij/Xit)/(xwj/Xwt)
Trongxij vxwj lxutkhucancivcatonthgiinncj;

XitvXwtltngkimngchxutkhucancjvcatonthgii.
Chsnycsdngxcnhliuncxutkhuicxutkhu
nhiu vo nc nhp khu j hn mc xut khu trung bnh ca th gii vo
nc nhp khu j hay khng. Cc gi tr ca Trade Intensity s nm trong
khong(0;+).Gitrnylnhn1schothyxutkhucancitincj
lnhnmcxutkhutrungbnhcatonthgiivoncj.
BNG 6. Ch s Tp trung thng mi (Trade Inte nsity) gia Vit Nam v cc i tc thng mi
chnh trong khu vc Chu -Thi Bnh Dng (n v tnh: ln)
Nc
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Trung Quc
2,52
2,08
1,8
1,97
1,7
1,7
1,34
0,39
0,47
0,21
0,38
0,28
0,29
0,24
Nht Bn
3,11
3,18
3,31
3,34
3,17
2,89
2,89
Hn Quc
1,39
1,42
1,22
1,13
0,96
0,95
1,31
Hoa K
0,35
0,84
1,21
1,25
1,1
1,3
1,62
Ngun: United Nation-Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)
http://www.unescap.org/tid/aptiad/index_trdi1_fm.aspx)
Theo tnh ton ca Lin hip quc, xut khu ca Vit Nam vo Trung
Quccaohnxutkhucatonthgiivoncny.Tuynhin,chsny
gimtkhong2lnxungti1,34lnnm2007,chothymctptrung
thngmicaVitNamvoTrungQuccxuhnggim,chcaohnmt
chtsovimcchungcacthgiivoncny.
XutkhucaVitNamvonthphnmcxutkhutrungbnhca
tonthgiivoncny.Cth,chsTptrungthngmi(TradeIntensity)
caVitNamntrongnhngnmgnychtkhong0,3<1.Cons
nychothyxutkhucanctavothtrngnchatngxngvi
timnngcahainc.imyuhintinycngchnhlchiVitNam
cnhngsquantmthchngnthtrngny,nngcaokimngchcng
nhgitrxutkhukhihinnayncnhgilmtnccnilc
phttrinmnhvkinhttrongtnglaign.
XutkhucanctavoNhtBncnhgilcaogpkhong3
lnmcxutkhutrungbnhcatonthgiivothtrngny.NhtBnl
thtrngxutkhulnnhtcaVitNamtnhtheomctptrungthng
mi. y l tn hiu ng mng trong thng mi gia hai nc. Tuy nhin,
trongnhngnmgny,chsnycxuhnggimnh.
TheonhgicaLin hipquc, xut khuca nctavoHnQuc
quaccnmnhnchungtmccaohntrungbnhcathgii,gpkhong
1,2 n 1,4 ln. Tuy nhin, ch s ny cn cha n nh, c nhng giai on
xungthphnmctrungbnhcatonthgii(giaion20052006).
HoaK,mttrongnhngitcthngmichinlccaVitNam,c
chsTptrungthngmitngdnquaccnm.Dinhhngcatdo
hathngmi,cthlcccamktthngmimnibtnhtlHipnh
ThngmiVitNamHoaK,xutkhucaVitNamvothtrngnyk
tnm2003tnglnngkvmtttrngsovittrngtrungbnhca
ton th gii. Tnh n ht nm 2007, con s ny gp 1,62 ln so vi mc
trungbnhcathgii.
Tmli,chsTptrungthngmigiaVitNamvccitcthng
milnchothyxutkhucaVitNamvoccthtrngny,ngoitrth
trngn,lcaohntrungbnhthgii,trongngchlthtrng
Nht Bn vi ch s Tp trung thng mi cao nht, th trng Hoa K vi
nhngbctinngmngtrongquanhthngmi.Thtrngnhin
angcnbng,cnthitphicccschlcphhpaxutkhuvo
thtrngnytngxngvitimnngxutkhucancta.
TrongbicnhxutkhucaVitNambnhhngnghimtrngdotc
ngcakhnghongkinhtthgii,mtvncntralcnhngnh
givxuhngccthtrngxutkhutrongnhngnmtiptheo.lphi
nh hng li th trng xut khu, mt phn hng ti nhng th trng
khng b hoc t b tc ng ca khng hong kinh t. Trong nhng nm ti,
Hoa K, EU, Nht, ASEAN vn s l nhng th trng chnh ca Vit Nam,
nhngmtntcbittrongxuhngxutkhucaVitNamtrongnhng
nmgnylttrngxutkhusangccthtrngmi(ChuMLatinh,
Chu Phi, Trung cn ng) tng ln mt cch ng k (Xem biu 3).

TrongsccthtrngxutkhuhinticaVitNamangchunhhng
cakhnghongkinht,TrungQuccsphchitrli.Ngoira,cth
sang nm 2010, nn kinh t Hoa K s phc hi tr li, sau s n cc th
trngkhcnhChuu,NhtBn.Mtkhiccthtrngnyphchith
gichnghaxutkhucaVitNamcngskhngcnthpnhtrongthi
kkhnghong.Vikhilngxutkhunhhinnay,kimngchxutkhu
VitNamchcchnstngtrli.
BIU 3. C cu th trng xut khu c a Vit Nam (T trng xut khu ngoi du th)
Th trng
khc
Ngun: tng cc Thng k
2. NH GI NNG LC DOANH NGHIP XUT KHU V CC NHN T QUYT NH NNG

CAO NNG LC CNH TRANH
Nng lc cung ng cho th trng th gii ca doanh nghip Vit Nam
chiutheo2gc,nnglccnhtranhquctvnnglcxutkhu.Nng
lccnhtranhcadoanhnghipcobngkhnngduytrvmrngth
phn,thulinhuncadoanhnghiptrongmitrngcnhtranh.Mtdoanh
nghipcnnglccnhtranhkhictsutlinhuncaohnmctrungbnh
cangnhhayithcnhtranh.Nhvy,cthhiunnglccnhtranhquc
tcadoanhnghipchnhlnnglccnhtranhcadoanhnghipthtrng
ncngoi,lkhnngbncsnphmtrnthtrngquctvthuc
linhuntrongkhivnimtvicnhtranhquct.Nnglcxutkhuc
hiu lmtmc tiukinhdoanhhaymctiunngcaokh nngcnhtranh
cadoanhnghiptrongqutrnhkinhdoanhhngtitngtrngmthng,
kim ngch xut khu, m rng th trng14. Vic phn bit r rng gia nng
lcxutkhuvnnglccnhtranhquctlrtkhkhnvhaikhinim
ny c s an xen nhau v ni hm. C th hiu nng lc cnh tranh l iu
kin cn c nng lc xut khu. V vy, o nng lc cung ng ca cc
doanhnghipVitNam,nhmchuyngiasdnghaibchscbnlchs
nhtnhvchsnhlngnhginnglccnhtranhquctvnng
lc xut khu ca cc doanh nghip Vit Nam da trn kt qu ca hai cuc
khostdoanhnghipdoTngccThngkvCcXctinthngmi,B
Cngthngtinhnhgny.
2.1 Nng lc sn xut xut khu (border-in)
V ch tiu nh tnh: C bn nhm ch tiu c nh hng ln n kh
nngxutkhucadoanhnghip,baogm:chtlngngunnhnlc,ut
chocngngh,phttrinsnphmmivchtlngcngtctipth,xctin
thngmi.
Vslngvchtlngngunnhnlc,khostcaTngccThngk
(2008)chothy,giatlxutkhuvquymlaongcadoanhnghipc
miquanhnhtnh.Quymlaongbnhquncanhmxutkhuthp
v trung bnh l 7276 lao ng, thp hn nhiu so vi quy m lao ng ca
nhmxutkhucaovxutkhuhontonl112116laong.
Cngtheokhostny,tuytiaslnhodoanhnghip(89%)c
trnhihcvtrnihc.Trnhlnhokhngcskhcbitng
k gia cc nhm xut khu, cc ngnh ngh v quy m doanh nghip. Tnh
trungbnh,midoanhnghipc7cnbqunl,chim14%slnglaong
cadoanhnghip.S lngvtlcnb qunlphthucnhiuvoquy
mlaong.Tlcnbqunltrongtnglaongcanhmxutkhuthp
vtrungbnhl1517%,caohnsovinhmxutkhucaovhonton(13%).
Nhvy,yutquymlaongdoanhnghipquytnhslngvtl
cnbqunlcadoanhnghiphnlccyutkhc.
Tngtnhcnbqunl,tnhtrungbnhslngcnbkthutl7
ngi,chim14%tngslaongcadoanhnghip.Slngvttrngcn
BiNgcSn(2009),NnglcxutkhucadoanhnghipVitNamtrongiukinkinhtthtrng,Nhxut
bnThngtinvtruynthng
14
bkthutphthucnhiuvoquymlaongcadoanhnghip.Tlcn
bkthuttronglclnglaongcanhmxutkhuthpvtrungbnhl
19% cao hn so vi nhm xut khu cao v hon ton l 89%. C th thy,
tngtnhtrnghpcnbqunl,slngvquymcnbkthut
phthucvoquymcadoanhnghiphnlccyutkhc.
Nhvy,cththy,trnhinglnhovslngingcnb
kthutlmtlithtonnnnglcxutkhucaccdoanhnghipc
khost.Khiinglnhoctrnhcao,slngcnbkthutc
otobibnnhiu,doanhnghipcnnglctipcncngnghmi,
tutchocngnghvsnphmmiddnghn.
Trongch tiuutchocngngh,tnhtrungbnh,ttrngvnut
trangthitbsovidoanhthucaccdoanhnghiptrongkhostcaTng
ccThngkl8%.Tlnyivinhmxutkhuthphoctrungbnh
l 1215%, cao hn nhm xut khu cao v hon ton 56%. Chi cho nghin
cu v pht trin (R&D) trong doanh thu ca cc doanh nghip l 8,4%.
Ngoitrnhmxutkhucaoctlchinghincuvphttrinkhthp
l 5,4%, cc nhm xut khu cn li c t l chi nghin cu v pht trin
trongkhong911%.Cngnghpdngtrongsnxutchyulcngngh
trongnc(48%).CngnghNhtBnlcngnghncngoicnhiu
doanhnghipsdngnht(26%),tiptheolcngnghtChuu(16%)
vcngnghtHoaK(8%).Tmquantrngtngicacccngngh
nutrnlphbingiaccnhmxutkhukhcnhau.Tldoanhnghip
s dng cng ngh trong nc khng c s chnh lch ng k gia cc
ngnh nng, thy sn, may mc, giy dp, g (4958%)15. iu ny cho
thy, cc doanh nghip xut khu Vit Nam tng i ch trng n vic
utchocngnghmivR&D.
Vchtiuphttrinsnphmvxydngthnghiu:Khong35%doanh
nghip trongkho st pht trin snphmmi. T l phttrin sn phm
mikhcnhaugiaccdoanhnghipcquymvtrongccngnhkhcnhau.
i vi doanh nghip nh, t l ny trong khong 1627%, trong khi i vi
doanhnghipvavln,tlnykhcao,4243%.Tldoanhnghipimi
snphmtngicao(4258%)trongccngnhnng,thysn,intv
gvthp(1525%)trongccngnhmaymc,giydpvphnmmmytnh.
Nh vy, tim lc ca doanh nghip v tnh cht sn xut kinh doanh c tc
ngngktivicdoanhnghiptinhnhimisnphm.
TrngKhanh(2008),NnglccnhtranhcaccdoanhnghipxutkhunhvvacaVitNam,Dinn
KinhtvTichnhln7,2627/02/2008
15
Mtbphndoanhnghipthchinccchnhschchtlngnhchng
chISO,nhnchtlngvnhnhiudngchung.Chnhschnhnhiudng
chungcnhiudoanhnghipvndngnht,trungbnhkhong33%.Tl
khlndoanhnghipxutkhuthphoctrungbnh(4244%)thchinchnh
schnhnhiu,trongkhitlnythphnnhiuivinhmdoanhnghip
xut khu cao (3533%). Chnh sch nhn cht lng ch c khong 11%
doanhnghippdng.Nhvy,nhiudoanhnghipvnchathcsquan
tmtinhngchnhschquantrngmbochtlngsnphm.
Ckhong44%doanhnghipsdngtrangwebgiithiusnphm
camnhv85%trongscdchratingncngoi.Tuynhin,thctcho
thy,vicsdngtrangwebvkimngchxutkhukhngcmiquanhr
rng.Cti65%doanhnghipxutkhuthpsdngtrangweb,trongkhit
lnyividoanhnghipxutkhutrungbnh42%,xutkhucao45%v
xutkhuhonton35%.Cththy,mtbphnngkdoanhnghip
xydngctrangweb qung bsn phm. Khong27% doanh nghip
ng k nhn hiu. T l doanh nghip ng k nhn hiu trong nhm xut
khutrungbnhvcao(32%)lcaohnsovinhmxutkhuthp(28%)v
xut khu hon ton (19%). Vic ng k nhn hiu kh nhau r nt gia cc
nhm quy m khc nhau. Khong 20% doanh nghip vi m v doanh nghip
nhngknhnhiu,trongkhitlngyiviccdoanhnghipvav
lnl2932%16.
2.2 Nng lc tip cn th trng th gii (border-out)
V phng php nh lng, mt trong nhng ch s c s dng ph
binolngnnglcxutkhucadoanhnghipltlxutkhutrn
doanhthu(gittltlxutkhu).phntchnnglcxutkhu,ngita
thngchiaccdoanhnghipckhostthnhbnnhmxutkhutheot
lxutkhutrungbnhtnhtrndoanhthutrong3nmgnnht:Nhmxut
khuthp(tlxutkhudi50%),Nhmxutkhutrungbnh(tlxut
khut50%n80%),Nhmxutkhucao(tlxutkhut80%ndi
100%)vNhmxutkhuhonton(tlxutkhu100%).Cuckhost500
doanhnghipxutkhuVitNamcaTngccThngkchothy,trongmu
kho st, cc doanh nghip ch yu thuc Nhm xut khu cao (90 doanh
nghip tng ng vi t l 36% doanh nghip trong mu kho st) v Nhm
xutkhuhonton(87doanhnghiptngngvitl34%)hnlNhm
16
xutkhutrungbnh(43doanhnghiptngngvitl17%)vNhmxut
khuthp(32doanhnghiptngngvitl13%).Nhvy,iascc
doanhnghipkhost(70%)ctlxutkhutrn80%vdovy,ccdoanh
nghipthucdinkhostcnhgilcnnglcxutkhu.
Ngoi t l xut khu, mt tiu ch khc c th phn nh nng lc xut
khu l khong thi gian t khi doanh nghip c thnh lp ti khi doanh
nghipbtuxutkhu.Khongthigiannycngngncnghalthigian
doanhnghipcthtipcnnthtrngxutkhucngnhanh.Khnng
tipcnnhanhchngthtrngxutkhulmtkhacnhthhinnnglc
xutkhucao.48%ccdoanhnghipkhostxutkhungaynmui
vohotng,34%xutkhumtnmsaukhithnhlp.Tldoanhnghip
cntrnhainmchunbmicthbtuxutkhulkhthp,khong9%
doanhnghipkhost.Tngtnhivitiuchtlxutkhu,ias
doanhnghipkhost(82%)chmttiamtnmlcthbtuxutkhu
vdovycnnglcxutkhucao.
Vhotngxctinthngmi:Ccdoanhnghipsdngcchnhthc
khcnhautmhiuvxctinhotngxutkhu.Ccbinphpcs
dngphbinlnghincuthtrng,sdngquanhcnhnvthamgia
cccuchich,trinlmtrongvngoinc.Ngoira,mtsdoanhnghip
cn s dng cc hnh thc khc nh: qua s gii thiu ca bn hng, khch
hng, thu dch v, qung co trc tip ti cc doanh nghip trong v ngoi
nc,tmkhchhngvtrctipgiithiu,sdngwebhocthint.i
asdoanhnghipsdngnghincuthtrng(75%)vquanhcnhn,
gianh(65%)thchincchotngxctinthngmi.Thamgiacc
hi ch, trin lm l cch thc c mt b phn ng k doanh nghip s
dng.Khong49%doanhnghipthamgiacchich,trinlmtrongnc
xctinthngmi,trongkhitldoanhnghipthamgiahichvtrin
lmncngoithphn,36%.Cththy,tldoanhnghipthamgiahi
ch,trinlmtrongncluncaohnsovihich,trinlmncngoi.
Ccdoanhnghipnhtckhnngthamdcchich,trinlmtrongnc
cngnhncngoisoviccdoanhnghipcquymlnhn.Hnna,kh
nngthamdhich,trinlmncngoiphthucnhiuvoquymca
doanh nghip. V d, t l doanh nghip xc tin thng mi thng qua hi
ch, trin lm l 41% i vi doanh nghip va, gim xung 29% vi doanh
nghipnhvchcn14%vidoanhnghipvim.Ngoixctinthngmi,
ccdoanhnghipsdngnhiuknhkhcnhauphnphisnphmca
mnhtrnthtrngxutkhu.Phnphitrctiphocquabnthngl
cc knh phn phi sn phm ph bin c cc doanh nghip s dng khi
xutkhuvi4042%doanhnghip s dngtngknhny.Chcmttl
khngln,27%doanhnghipphnphisnphmquahthngil.17
BIU 4. Thi gian tip cn th trng xut khu ca cc doanh nghip Vit Nam
Ngun: Trng Khanh (2008), Nng lc cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip xut khu nh v va ca Vit Nam,
Din n Kinh t v Ti chnh ln 7, 26-27/02/2008
Nhvy,cththy,mttrongnhngtntilnnhttrongnnglcxut
khucadoanhnghipchnhlphngphpphnphisnphm.Gn50%s
doanhnghipckhostvnsdngknhphnphitruynthnglbn
hngtrctip.nngcaonnglcxutkhuchodoanhnghip,viccitin
knhphnphivphngphpphnphicllmttrongnhngvicu
tincnlm.
Vinhngchtiunhtnh,nhlngnhphntchtrn,nnglc
cnhtranhcadoanhnghipvhnghaVitNamcnhginhthno
trnthtrngquct?Cuckhostkincacccquanidinthng
miVitNamncngoidoCcXctinthngmi,BCngthngthc
hinchothy,huhtcccquanidinthngmiVitNamtincngoi
ucchung quanimvnng lccnh tranhcahng ha, doanh nghip
VitNam. Trongthang imcaonht l 10,ccc quan idin thng mi
VitNamtincngoinhgivnnglccnhtranhcahnghav
doanhnghipVitNamncstinhsau:
17
- Vchtlng:HnghaVitNamhuhtcchtlngtrungbnh,khng
c yu t ni tri so vi i th cnh tranh, c nh gi t 67 im.
Nhiu c quan i din thng mi Vit Nam ti nc ngoi cho rng,
cht lng hng xut khu Vit Nam cn cha n nh, mu m cha
phongph,adng.
- Vgic:LuimnitricahngxutkhuVitNamkhihngVit
Nam bn gi r hn hn so vi i th cnh tranh d cht lng ngang
nhau. C bit, c mt hng giy dp Vit Nam r hn c, an Mch,
Italiat28ln,tuynhinvncaohnTrungQuc.Huhtcccquan
idinthngmiVitNamtincngoiuchmim89chotiu
chny.
- Vkhnngcungcphngho,dchvvdchvsaubnhng:doanhnghip
VitNambnhgichatt.Tiuchnychccccquanidin
thng mi Vit Nam ti nc ngoi chm trung bnh t 13 im, mc
imthpnht.Ngoira,khnngthchngthayichacaocnglmt
tiuchbchmimkm,cht24im.
- Vnnglctipthxutkhuvtmkimthngtin:Huhtcccquani
dinthngmiVitNamuchoimcaotiuchny,t79im,
cho thycc doanh nghipVit Nam rt nng ng vtch cc trong
vicmrngthtrng,mrngitcxutkhu.Tuynhin,nnglc
ngoingcacnbnghipvlimcnlukhinhngthtrng
khng ni ting Anh, trnh ngoi ng ca cn b nghip v ch c
nhgi5im.Ngoira,tnhchuynnghiptrongkhochtipthca
ccdoanhnghipukhngccccquanidinthngmiVit
Namtincngoinhgicao.NhiucquanidinthngmiVit
Nam ti nc ngoi ch chm im 2/10 cho tiu ch ny ca cc doanh
nghipVitNam18.
- Nitmli,khnngcungngcadoanhnghipVitNamchtr
biccnhnt:doanhnghipckhnngxutkhucao(tlxutkhu
trn doanh thu cao, thi gian t khi thnh lp n khi xut khu ngn);
trnh ngun nhn lc cao; t l doanh nghip u t cho cng ngh,
phttrinsnphmmi,R&Dvxydngthnghiucao;chtlng
sn phmcthtrng chp nhn; gi ccu thvttrihn i
CcXTTM(2009),KtqucuckhostkincacccquanidinthngmiVitNamtincngoi
thng11/2009
18
th cnh tranh; nng ng trong xc tin xut khu v tm kim thng

tinTuynhin,ccnhntcntrkhnngcungngcaVitNamc
thknnh:thiuadngtronghthngknhphnphinnhiuqu
chacao;dchvsaubnhngkm;khnngthchngvinhngthay
i ca th trng thp v cc k hoch tip th c tnh chuyn nghip
thp. y chnh l nhng nhn t khin doanh thu xut khu ca Vit
Namchacao.nngcaokhnngcnhtranhcahnghaxutkhu
Vit Nam, qua tng doanh thu xut khu, nhng cn tr ny s l
nhngnhntutincnquantmvxl.
2.3 Li th so snh v nng lc cnh tranh ca doanh nghip xut khu: Cc yu
t quyt nh thnh cng trong cnh tranh
Nguyn tc li th so snh cho rng mt nc c th thu c li t
thngmibtkntuytichiuquhnhaytuytikhnghiuqu
bngccnckhctrongvicsnxutmihngha.TrongiukincaVit
Nam,lithsosnhthhin:tctngtrngnnh,cshtngng
b, ngun nhn lc di do c trnh , ti nguyn thin nhin phong ph,
thnhcngtronghinhpkinhtquctCth,VitNamclithvmt
s sn phm nh hng nng sn, hng dt may v giy dp... Thc t cc v
kinbnphgiivihnghacaVitNamvothtrngncngoi(tnh
tithng7/2009VitNamphiimtti39vkinbnphgiccth
trngkhcnhau)nh:gocaVitNamvoClmbia(1994);giydpvm
chnhvothtrngEU(1998);ctra,cbasavothtrngHoaK(2002);bt
lavoBaLan(2000),giyvoCanada(2002)chothygicsnphmVit
Nam thp hn nhiu so vi sn phm cng loi nc khc. Ni cch khc,
VitNamangcclithsosnhrtnhiusnphmkhcnhau.
Tuynhin,lthuytvlithsosnhvcthllithivitngsn
phmdatrnnhngginhnh:khngcptichiphvnchuynhng
ha, chi ph sn xut khng thay i khi quy m sn xut thay i, khng c
thuquanvrocnthngmi,thngtintrnthtrnglhonhovc
ngibnvngimuaucthlachnsnphmmnhmongmunvi
gicthpnht.Trnthct,khngmtginhnotrnycththchin
ctrong iukin cnhtranh quct nh hin nay. V vy, c ci nhn
ngnnhtvlithsosnh,chngtakhngthkhngbntinhngvn
nh:thu,xctinthngmi,cshtngthngtinccinhny
vlithsosnhcahngxutkhucaVitNam.
Sliucsdngtrongphnphntchnycthuthptphnhi
caccibiuthamdDinnkinhtthgiitronghainm2008v200919
cngvichsvhotngLogistic(LogisticPerformanceIndexchsvh
tngcschothngmi)doNgnhngThgiicungcpvnhngsliu
cngtcctchckhcnh:Tchcthngmithgii,Trungtmthng
miquct,HinghLinhipqucvthngmivphttrin(UNCTAD).
Boconycthchinlnutinnm2008vislngncthamgia
l118ncvconsnytngln121nctrongnm2009.
nhgichungcacngngthgiivtnhhnhthcythngmi
caVitNamtronghainm20082009lstinbttcccchs.Vmt
xp hng chung, ch trong khong thi gian t 2008 n 2009, Vit Nam
vnlnvtr89tvtr91.Ngoiccchtiumicaratrongnm2009
(chyulccchtiuclinquantihotngHiquanvylmttrong
nhngmtxchquantrngcavngmphnDoha),huhtccchtiuca
VitNamucstinbvmtxphng.Theonhgicacngngth
gii,nhngmtmVitNamcthmnhcthknl:chsvhngro
phithuquan,ccloithuquanringbit,shiuqutrongthngquan,chi
phvtiliuchoxutkhu,slinhgiacctuchkhch,camktvlnh
vc vn ti trong GATS (WEF, 2009). Tuy nhin, Vit Nam cng b tt hng
trongmtschtiunhgicthtrongcbalnhvccahotngktni
nh:khnngtipcnthtrng,hiuqutrongqunlngbingiivc
shtngthngtin.
TmhiunguynnhnkhinchochscaVitNammtshngmc
ttbc,chngtacnknldotcngbnngoilvicsnctham
giavobocotngt118nctrongboconm2008ln121nctrong
bococanm2009.Hnna,mtschtiunhnhkimsotnntham
nhng, s lng ngi ng k s dng dch v vin thng di ng hay s
lng ngi s dng internet th mc d xp hng ca Vit Nam nm 2009
thphnsovinm2008nhngimscaVitNamlikhquanhnso
vinm2008.
iumchngtaquantmhinnayllgiivsaonhnghngmc
khcnh:chtlngcshtngvnti(nghngkhng,cngbin),s
tinlivhpltrongchiphvnchuynhngha,chtiuvthuquanca
VitNamlikhngckhquannhmongi.
19
Dinnkinhtthgiinm20082009aranhgichotnhhnhphttrinkinhtcaVitNamnm20072008
BNG 7. Tnh hnh thc y thng mi Vit Nam 2008-2009

Tiu ch
Xp hng nm 2008
Xp hng nm 2009
111
115
90
91
S tin li v hp l trong chi ph vn chuyn hng
44
45
Nng lc Logistic
53
54
Thi gian vn ti
63
64
Hiu qu trong dch v bu in
33
49
Chuyn giao cng ngh mc doanh nghip
43
49
Ngi ng k s dng dch v vin thng di ng
96
101
Ngi s dng Internet
59
65
Kh nng tip cn th trng

Ch tiu v thu quan
Hiu qu trong qun l ng bin gii
Tham nhng
C s h tng vn ti v thng tin
Ngun: WEF, 2008-2009
Vn ti hng ha
TheotnhtoncaCcHnghiVitNam,chonnay,VitNammit
p ng c 25% nhu cu th trng dch v logistics ang ngy cng tng
cao. C th, dch v quan trng nht l vn ti bin, cc doanh nghip trong
nc mi ch p ng chuyn ch c 18% tng lng hng ha xut nhp
khu,trongkhicti90%hnghaxutkhucvnchuynbngng
bin. Ngoi ra, s doanh nghip sc t chc v iu hnh ton b quy
trnhhotnglogisticsthcschmtrnungntay.Ccdoanhnghip
VitNamaphnunhb,hnchvvn,cngnghvtrnhnhnlc,
cthvthnnchkhnnglmthumtvicngontrongcchui
dchvmccdoanhnghipncngoiangthchinthtrngVitNam.
Hnna,theongPhmMnhCngPhTGCngtyCPilHnghi
VitNam,trongkhidoanhnghipnhcnnonyu,chacslinminhth
lixuthinkiukinhdoanhchpgit,manhmn,cnhtranhtheokiuhgi
thnhlmilchoncngoimtcchkhnglnhmnh.Hnna,nhiu
tntuilncathgiixuthinVitNamanggyscprtln,khin
doanhnghipVitNamkhngktnicvimnglitoncu,chcth
hotngnhnhngnhcungcpdchvcp2,thmchlcp3,cp4cho
ccitcncngoicmngiuhnhdchvtoncungaytrnsnnh
camnh.
Theo mt bo co ca Ngn hng Th gii nm 2009, vn chi ph

logisticslmttrongnhngyutkhinchokhnngcnhtranhcalogistics
Vit Nam khng c nh gi cao trong mt cng ng quc t. Trong hai
nm 20082009, cc doanh nghip Vit Nam khng thc hin c c chui
logisticsvphthucvoscungcpcadoanhnghipncngoi.ychnh
lldochnhkhinchodoanhnghipVitNambnhgithphnvxp
hnglogistics.Ngoinhngchiphtrctipnhchiphvnti,phcuph
cng,phil,doanhnghipcnphichuchiphnhycmdoskhng
dboccachuicungcp.Khichuicungcpthayikhngcd
botrc,doanhnghipsphichuynquasdngccdchvthnkhin
chiphtngvnnglccnhtranhcadoanhnghipgimxung.
Bn cnh , cht lng c s h tng bin ca Vit Nam trong hai nm
20082009chngkinsquticamtscngbinnhcngSiGn.Theo
bo co cng ty qun l cng Si Gn gi Tng cng ty Hng hi Vit Nam,
trong4thngunm2009,lnghnghaquacccngkhuvcThnhph
HChMinhtngtbin.Chtrongbnthngunm2009,cngSiGn
bcdgn6,4triutnhng,tng43%socngknm2008.Trongkhi,kh
nng tip nhn tu v bc xp ca cng c gii hn, cng lc ch c th tip
nhn25tuticucngvccbnphaotrongkhicthiimlngtuvo
cnglnn50chicvvycngluntrongtrngthiquti.
H tng thng tin
ivichtiuvslngngingkdchvvinthng,chngta
mt v tr 96 v tt xung v tr 101 ch trong hai nm 20082009. Vic tt
hngcaVitNamkhibnvslngngingkdchvvinthngc
thclgiithngquaccldocnusauy:
Thnht,VitNamhincqunhiunvcungcpdchvvinthng,
8nv(trongkhiTrungQucvi1,2tdn,dintchrnglncngchc6
nvcungcpdchv)vinhnghnhngcnhtranhxmhitiquynli
cakhchhng.Dnchngtthct,ccmngvinthngthngcnhtranh
nhaucungcpdchvchocckhuthmi,ccnhcaotng.Mtkhch
hng,dcmongmunsdngdchvcaBuinHNicngskhng
cpngvldohangsngtinhngkhuchungcminhTrung
Ho,Nhn Chnh,NamTrungYn,M nh nimViettel, EVNt
chtrchthnghtng.
Ngoira,chtlngmngvinthngcachngtacnnhiubtcp,cc
doanhnghipcungcpdchvvinthngcxuhngcnhtranh,khaithc
linhunngnhnmkhngquantmticngccshtngdchv.Vic
ccdoanhnghipcnhtranhcungcpdchvliubnhthng,nhngcnh
tranhmtcngxunquynlikhchhnglmnhhngtichtlng
dchvcungcpthdctngvmtslngnhcungcptrnthtrng,
chsnhgichongingksdngdchvvinthngdingcaVit
Namcngssuygim.
Chuyn giao cng ngh
TnhhnhchuyngiaocngnghVitNamchyuvnlchuyngiao
cng ngh t cng ty m sang cng ty con trong cc cng ty 100% vn nc
ngoihoccngtylindoanh.Trongkhihuhtccdoanhnghiphinang
hotngkinhdoanhVitNamucquymvavnh,khnngtrangb
mymcthitbkthutcnhnch,hnhthcchuyngiaocngnghthng
mithuntychathcsphthuy.iuchothydoanhnghipvncha
thcschngtrongvicnngcaotrnhcngngh.Bncnh,tuy
cssaivLutchuyngiaocngnghvsraicaNghnhvth
trngcngngh,cchkimsotchuyngiaocngnghcaVitNamvn
cncngnhc,chatonglcchocctchc,ccnhkhoahcphthuyti
a nng lc sng to v a nhanh kt qu nghin cu vo ng dng trong
thct(VBF,2007).
Hi quan
Nidungnginhathtchiquanchimvtrquantrngtrong
chngtrnhthchincadnhinihahiquanVitNam.Do,vic
chngtrnhhinihahiquanchathchincnhdkinphnno
lldokhinchochsvhiquanVitNamnm2009likhngcnh
gicaonhnm2008.CthltheobocotCngtyTNHHDchvQun
lDorimortheothngcaBTiChnhthccdnhinihahiquan
vn cha th hin c cc yu t c th tp trung vo tng cng an ninh
chuicungng,nhtllinquannhnghacxutkhu.
Theo bo co c a ra v tnh hnh trin khai n hin i ha hi
quan(thng4/2009),dnhinihaHiquanchmsovikhochd
kinbanukhong2nm,tlgiingnquthpsovimcmongi.
Vvy,ongimst4caNgnhngthgiinhgidnttmtbc,t
thamn(satisfactory)xungmcthamnvaphi(moderatelysatisfactory)
(TngccHiquan,2009).
Tnhnthng12nm2008,tlgiingncadnt1,3%.Doccgi
thumuasmchnhcadn(muasmhthngCNTTvmysoi)uthc
hinvocuidnnntingiingnthpvchathcithinngayckhi
thchinhtphntvncadn(chimkhong10%dn).
2.4 Tc ng ca vic gia nhp WTO v cc khu vc mu dch t do (FTA) i vi
mt s ngnh hng xut khu v doanh nghip xut khu
Vit Nam l thnh vin ca WTO c gn 3 nm. R rng y l
qungthigianqungnngisovitintrnh11nmmphnktngy
VitNamnpnxingianhpWTOnkhitrthnhthnhvinchnhthc.
Ngoira,victhamgiavocckhuvcmudchtdo(FTA)cnglmthay
ingkbctranhngoithngcaVitNam.Nhphntrcchra,
ASEANhonthnhmphnkkt3hipnhlnvi4itcquan
trnglNhtBn,n,AustraliavNiuDiln.ylnhngHipnhFTA
ton din, trn gi vi ni dung rng v phc tp, iu chnh nhiu lnh vc
nh thngmihngha, dchv, u t,mua sm chnhph, hi quan, s
hutrtucbit,sangnm2009Australia,NiuDilnvncng
nhn Vit Nam l nn kinh t th trng. Vic nh gi tc ng ca nhng
thnhtutrongqutrnhhinhpkinhtquctnycaVitNamcvaitr
v ngha rt quan trng chng ta nhn nhn mt cch thc cht hn v
nhng vn mang tnh d on trc y, t c nhng gii php chin
lcvischphhphn.
2.4.1 Tc ng tch cc
a) Kim ngch xut khu ca tt c cc mt hng gia tng vi tc nhanh
Trc y, hng ha Vit Nam thng phi chu mc thu sut cao khi
thmnhpvothtrngccnc.Doccmthngcachngtathng
kh cnh tranh ti th trng bn a. Sau khi tr thnh thnh vin ca WTO
viccchingnhMFN,NT,cngnhthamgiavoccFTA,Vit
Nambtukhaithccthtrngxutkhurnglnvimccamktv
thunhpkhuvscctgimcngccbinphpphithuquancng
scloibtheonghnhthgianhpcaccthnhvinnymkhngb
phnbitix.iunygpphnkhngnhchoccdoanhnghipnc
tanngcaocnnglccnhtranhvtngkimngchxutkhucattc
ccmthng,cbitlnhngmthngmVitNamvncthmnh.
C th khng nh, sau gn 3 nm gia nhp WTO, nng lc sn xut v

kinhdoanhcaccngnhhngtnglnrrt.Mcdtrongthigianqua,
ccbinngphctpcannkinhttoncu,nhsthayichngmt
ca gi nng lng, lng thc v nhiu loi nguyn liu khc, cng vi s
khngkhongcahthngtichnhtoncuvangcnhhnglanta
nhuhtccnnkinhtvthngmithgii.Cctcngnycngc
nhhngrtlnivinnkinhtvthngmicaVitNamvncquy
mnhb,angphttrintrnhthp,nhngmcaovangphim
ca th trng thc hin cam kt gia nhp WTO. Tuy nhin, hu ht cc
ngnhhngcanctaugictctngtrngcaosovinhiunc
trongkhuvc.
Theo s liu nm 2008, tng mc bn l hng ha v doanh thu dch v
tng31%sovinm2007(nuloitryuttnggi,mctngcn7%);kim
ngchxutkhut62,7tUSD,tng29,5%sovinm2007.Nhnchung,xut
khuccmthngchlcthucccngnhhngcngnghip,nngnghipv
dchvutngrrt.Chnghn,hngintvlinhkinmytnht2,7
tUSD,tng25,5%sovinm2007;hngdtmayt9,1tUSD,tng17,5%;
snphmgt2,78tUSD,tng15,6%;cpht2,02tUSD,tng5,8%;cao
su t 1,6 t USD, tng 14,6%20.Tuy nhin, theo thng k nm 2009, do nh
hngcakhnghongkinht,kimngchhnghoxutkhucht56,584
tUSD,gim9,3%sovinm2008,baogmkhuvckinhttrongnct
26,73tUSD,gim5,1%;khuvckinhtcvnutncngoit29,9t
USD,gim13,5%.
Ngoi vic kim ngch xut khu ca cc mt hng vn tng cao, xut
hinthmmtsngnhhngmickimngchxutkhuttrn1tUSD,
atngsmthngnylncons10.Trongsccmthngxutkhuch
lc c nhng mt hng c kim ngch xut khu xp th hng cao so vi cc
ncxutkhutrnthgiivckhnngnhhngnthtrngthgii
nh:go,cph,ch,caosu,httiu,iu.ythcslthnhcnglnca
VitNamvcnphicphthuymnhmtrongtnglai.
b) Th trng c m rng, hng ha ca Vit Nam c th thm nhp th trng
cc thnh vin WTO v cc nc tham gia k FTA mt cch thun li hn
Hin nay Vit Nam c quan h thng mi vi hn 220 nc v vng
lnhth,trongcquanhxutkhuvi219ncvvnglnhthny21.
20
Tngccthngk(2008),Ningimthngknm2008
21
Theohttp://www.na.gov.vn/htx/English/C1330/?Default.asp?Newid=1255
Chonnay,VitNamlthnhvinca63tchcquctvcquanh
vi hn 650 t chc phi chnh ph trn th gii. c bit, gia nhp WTO,
chng ta c c th trng xut khu rng ln bao gm 15322 thnh vin
cngvinhngu i dnh ring cho cc thnh vin. y thc s l bc
ngot mi m ra nhng c hi ln cho th trng xut khu hng ha ca
ncta.
Th trng hng ha xut nhp khu ca Vit Nam ngy cng c m
rng v quy m v s lng. Nu nh nm 2002 ch c 4 nc c kim ngch
xutkhuttrgitrn1tUSDlHoaK,Nht,TrungQuc,Australiath
nnm2006tnglnthnh8nc(thmMalaysia,Singapore,Anh,c),
vtnhnnm2008cthm3ncvvnglnhthliLoan,ThiLan,
Indonexia.Tuychchimkhong5%trongsccthtrngVitNamcquan
h xut khu nhng tng gi tr ca cc th trng ny t gn 35 t USD
(chim hn 60% kim ngch xut khu ca c nc). iu ny cho thy hot
ngxutkhucanctatptrungchyuvomtsthtrngchnh.V
vy, chin lc ngoi thng ca Vit Nam song song vi vic m rng th
trngmithvnphilunhtscquantmticcthtrngtruynthng
nynhngkhngnnquphthucvonhngthtrngny,nhtltrong
tnhtrng nhiu bin ng nh hin nay.Nhnchung,ccloihngha xut
khu ca Vit Nam nh dt may, c ph, cao su, thy sn... c mt hu
khpccnctrnthgii.Cc doanhnghipVitNam c nhiuchitip
cnvinhngnguntndng,cngnghhini,ccloihnhdchv,vtt,
nguyn liu v c hi xut khu sn phm do th trng c m rng v
khngbphnbitix.
c) S thng nht ca h thng php lut gip mi trng kinh doanh trong
nc c ci thin theo hng thun li v minh bch hn, ph hp vi cc quy nh
ca quc t
TrongtintrnhmphngianhpWTO,VitNamphixydngc
mththngphplutminhbch,rrngvthngnht.Do,nhtnm
2006,cquanlpphpcaVitNamsaivxydngmi26Lutv
Php lnh quan trng nh: B lut Dn s nm 2005, Lut Thng mi nm
2005,LutDoanhnghipnm2005,Lututnm2005vPhplnhv
vicChngbnphgihnghanhpkhuvoVitNamnm2004,Phplnh
ChngtrcphnghanhpkhuvoVitNamnm2004Bncnh,Vit
Namsai,bsungvxydngmihn100Lutimixhi,pht
22
VitNamlthnhvinth150caWTO;sauVitNam,Tonga,Ukraina,CapeVerdelnltl3thnhvintiptheo.
trinkinhtvcicchhnhchnh.iunythhinquyttmcaocang
v Nh nc Vit Nam trong vic tch cc v ch ng xy dng hnh lang
phplngycngthunlichohotngcadoanhnghipvquyttm
cccnhuttrongnc,ccnhutncngoivbnbquc
tghinhnvnhgicao23.
Nhng thay i ny gip mi trng kinh doanh trong nc c
cithintheohngthunlivminhbchhn.Vicnginhathtc
hnhchnh,nhcpgiychngnhnngkkinhdoanh,cpmsthuv
gim thiu giy php con c tc ng tch cc i vi pht trin cc
doanhnghipmihuhtccngnhhng.Vicphttrinhthngngn
hngvbohimmraccknhtichnhcnhtranhvstochitip
cntichnhttvctnhcnhtranhhnchoccdoanhnghip,cbitl
ccdoanhnghipvavnh,ccdoanhnghiphotngkinhdoanhxut
khu, doanh nghip thuc nhng ngnh u tin nh ng tu, pht trin
nnglngmi...
Chnh ph xc lp v m rng quyn kinh doanh thng mi cho
doanh nghip ph hp vi thc tin thng mi trong nc v quc t. Lin
quan n quyn kinh doanh xut nhp khu, nu Ngh nh 57/1998/NCP
ngy31/07/1998cghinhnlmtbctinmitrongqutrnhthchin
mrngquynthamgiahotngkinhdoanhxutnhpkhuchomithnh
phnkinhtviquynhmithnhphnkinhtucthamgiaxutnhp
khu trong phm vi ng k kinh doanh m khng cn bt k mt loi giy
phpxutnhpkhuno,chcnngkmsdoanhnghipkinhdoanhti
CcHiquantnh,thnhph,thhinnayLutThngminm2005a
ra cc quy nh cn m rng hn na, c bit l v quyn kinh doanh xut
nhp khu ca thng nhn. Ngh nh 12/2006/NCP ngy 23/01/2006 ca
ChnhphquynhchititthihnhLutThngmivhotngmuabn
hnghaquctvhotngil,mua,bn,qucnhvgiacnghngha
cyutquctquynhthngnhnVitNamkhngcvnutnc
ngoi c quyn kinh doanh xut nhp khu hng ha khng ph thuc
ngnhnghngkkinhdoanh(iu3khon1).24
ThtrngBThngmiLngVnT,TintrnhgianhpTchcThngmiThgiiWTO:Chiv
thchthcivincta,tiliutiHinghphbincccamktWTOcaVitNam,HNi,thng11/2006,
tr.23
23
NguynNgcHTcngcamitrngphplutVitNamnhotngcaccdoanhnghipsaukhi
VitNamgianhpWTOTpchKinhtingois28/2008tr.6976.
24
d) Cc doanh nghip xut khu phi nng cao nhn thc, i mi t duy v hon
thin sn xut kinh doanh v mi mt
BnthnvictrthnhthnhvinchnhthccaWTOcngnhthamgia
vo cc FTA s c tc dng n by thc y nng lc cnh tranh ca
doanh nghip, iu buc cc doanh nghip xut khu phi t i mi v
honthinmnh.iuquantrngnhtldoanhnghipphithcctnh
clpvnlntntitrongmtmitrngthngmitdo,hinhp
quctmkhngcnsbotrcanhnc.
KhuvcdoanhnghipcaVitNamcsphttrincvslngv
chtlng.Nhiudoanhnghipangpdngccbtiuchunqunltheo
tiuchunhaquct(ISO),cccngcnngcaotnhcnhtranhchodoanh
nghipsauhinhpvccmhnhquntrtintin.Nhiudoanhnghip
utnngcaotrnhcngngh,cbitlthchinccyucukhtkhe
vchtlng.Nhvy,nhiudoanhnghipccpgiychngnhnquc
t v qun l cht lng. T ch ch c 1 doanh nghip t chng ch ISO l
chng ch ISO 9002: 1994 (vo nm 1995) th sau khi gia nhp WTO n nay,
chngtacgn2000doanhnghiptcchngnhnhthngqunl
chtlngtheotiuchunquctnhISO9000,HACCP,ISO14001,SA8000
ChngtacngchngtrmphngthnghimccngnhnphhpISO
17025,hngvndoanhnghipcngbtiuchunhnghavchngnhn
ph hp tiu chun25. Vic thc xy dng v p dng cc tiu chun h
thngqunlqucttrnnquenthuctrongnhnthccanhiudoanh
nghipcbitltrongthikhinhp.ylmttnhiungmngbin
stngkhnngcnhtranhcaccdoanhnghipcngnhcahnghaca
VitNam.
nngcaonnglccnhtranhcadoanhnghipVitNamtrongthik
hinhpkinhtquct,ccdoanhnghipcnphinmvngchuyndchc
cu kinh t trn th gii, nm vng c cu tiu dng ca tng loi hng ha,
vnhacatngthtrng,gichtntrongxydngthnghiu,nngcao
chtlngpngmimtccyucucathtrng
25
http://www.vietnamquality.org.vn/index.php?act=view&code=new&id=7
2.4.2 Tc ng tiu cc
a) Lm pht lm gia tng chi ph u vo
Trc khi gia nhp WTO, nn kinh t Vit Nam lun gp rt nhiu kh
khn trong vic kim sot gi c. Do , kinh t Vit Nam tri qua nhng
giai on lm pht rt cao, khng ch trong thi k kinh t ng m ngay c
trongthigiangny(nm2004).ThctlmphtVitNamnhngnm
trc y vn lun chu nh hng bi nhng bin ng t chi ph u vo
nhchiphnguynvtliunhpkhukhinlmphtchiphyxyra,tgi
hnghalngthcthcphm(viquynscaotrongrhnghatnhCPI
ca Vit Nam), t cc nguyn nhn mang tnh tm l khi chng ta cho pht
hnhccngtinmictrgicaovchnhschtnglngcbndnn
lm pht k vng hay t vic iu tit v s dng cc chnh sch ti kha v
tintcnchahpl.Tuynhin,lmphttronggiaionnyvnchdng
mcmtcons.
NhngktsaukhigianhpWTO,tnhhnhlmphtgiatngnhanh,
lnutinsau10nmtrliy,lmphtVitNamlnnhaiconsv
khngngnggiatng.KinhtVitNamtrongnm2008crtnhiuskin:
LmphtquIlnmc2consl16,37%sovicngknmngoi;nnkinh
tangtrn tng tcthun chiuvitc trn8%/nm tngt rivo
khccuagp.Thng3/2008,Chnhphara8giiphpkimchlmpht,
ginnhnnkinhtvm,ttrngtmvothtchttintvtikho,
kimsotutcng.Hqullisuttngphim,lisutchovayclcln
ti21/%/nm,thmchnhiudoanhnghipcnhngthiimphivaymc
caohndoccngnhngthuthmcckhonph(phtvn,phthuxptn
dng) lch quynh li suttrn.Dovy, doanh nghipno s dng n
bytichnhcaonhiukhnngchutcngmnhdochnhschtinttht
cht c thc hin trong qu II v III ca nm 2008. Song ngay sau , Vit
Nambnhhngbicucsuythoikinhtkotheolkhnghongkinht
trntonthgii.Sangnnm2009,saunhnggikchcucaChnhph,
lmphttiVitNamgimngk(dbolmpht2009caVitNams
ch l 7%), song hiu qu ca cc gi kch cu phc hi nn kinh t trong
ncthvnchaphthuytcdng.Cthni,lmphtkhinchochiph
uvocaccngnh hng tng ln ngk. Gi xng du lintc giatng
chng mt trong nm 2008, nh im l vo ngy 21/07/2008 gi xng ln
n19.500/lt.ncuinm2008,gixngmibtuhnhitvbtu
chnglitrong6thngunm2009.Tuynhin,trongnhngthngcuinm
ny,gixngduthgiiliangbinngmnh,thtrngangngtrc
khnngtnggimitranhngthchthclnchoBTichnhtrongvic
kimsotgixngduuvo.Chiphuvotngcaomtphnkhngnh
ldonhpsiucaVitNamanggiatngmnhmtsaukhigianhpWTO.
iunygyrartnhiukhkhnchoccdoanhnghipxutkhutrong
vicsnxuthnghavcnhtranhvithtrngccncbna.
b) Bi b cc khon tr cp v cc khon c tnh tr cp cho doanh nghip
Vic m ca th trng dn n cnh tranh tng ln, cc doanh nghip
VitNamkhngchcnhtranhtrongncmcnphicnhtranhctrnth
trngthgii.Theocamkt,nhiukhontrcphocctnhchttrcpca
Chnhphchomtsngnhtrcybucphibib.Chnghn,ccui
vvn,vtndng,cckhonhtrlisutphttrinsnxutkinhdoanh
ivingnhdtmay,uithutheotlniahaivingnhckh,
thngxutkhutheothnhtchxutkhuivithtrngmivmthng
mi...phibib.Theoccchuyngiacadnhtrkthutnngcao
nnglcthchgipVitNamgianhpWTOdoBNgoigiaoItaliatitr,
trcptrongWTOcchiathnh3nhm.Do,nhmnltrcpb
cm s dng bao gm tr cp xut khu v tr cp thay th nhp khu
khuyn khch s dng u vo trong nc, khuyn khch ni a ha. Nhm
n vng l tr cp ring bit cho mt ngnh hoc mt vng, gy lch lc
thng mi mc d nhm ny khng b cm s dng nhng nu s dng,
chngtacthbnhthuchngtrcp...Nhmnxanhltrcpc
coiltgylchlcchothngmivcphppdngltrcpchng
trnhnghincuvphttrin,trcpphttrinvngkhkhn...Theocamkt
chung,saukhivoWTO,VitNamphidngngaytrcpxutkhuthuc
nhmnvnvng.Tuynhin,ccchngtrnhhtrtrongnc
thucloinxanh,chitrtrctipchongisnxut,htrringchothu
nhpvncsdng.
c) Ph thuc vo cc trung gian thng mi
QuymcadoanhnghipVitNamchyulvavnh,nnglcti
chnh yukm, k nngvkin thc chuyn suv qun l trong mi trng
cnhtranhquctcnchn,ccdoanhnghiplithiuslinktvchtham
giacvocckhucgitrgiatngthpnhttrongchuigitrtoncui
vihuhtccngnhhng.Vvy,mcdnhiungnhhngcachngtang
th hng cao trong xut khu nh h tiu, iu, go, c ph, cao su, hng dt
may...,nhngdochngtachathamgiacvocckhucgitrgiatng
caonnbucphilthucvocctrunggianthngmincngoi.Ngoira,
nng lc nghin cu v thit k, kh nng i mi cng ngh ca hu ht cc
doanhnghipcnrthnch,lclnglaongctrnhcaokhngp
ngnhucuphttrin.iunykhinchonhiudoanhnghipmtinhng
chiphkhngnhchocctrunggianthngmivikhicnbpgi.
d) Pht sinh tnh trng tha USD, thiu VND
Trong bi cnh lm pht ca Vit Nam ngy cng gia tng, nhiu ngn
hng thng mi ang trong tnh trng thiu VND, tha USD. Vo giai on
cuinm2007vunm2008,cungVNDtrnthtrnglinngnhngkhan
himkhincholisutquamcyln1719%/nm(caogp5ln
sovitln35%/nmtrc.Tnhtrngnykhinccngnhngkhhuy
ngvnvccdoanhnghipgpkhkhnkhivayngnhng.
Rrng,vicVitNamgianhpWTOvthamgiavoccFTA,bncnh
tcngtchcclngunvnutgintipcaccnhutncngoi
avothtrngchngkhontngcaonhnglilmphtsinhtcngtiu
cc. l cc nh u t nc ngoi ch c th u t vo th trng chng
khon bng VND nn h phi i ngoi t ra VND, khin cho VND tr nn
khanhimtrongkhiUSDlidtha.iunychatngxyratrckhiVit
Nam gia nhp WTO. Vic ngoi t vo th trng chng khon Vit Nam
qu nhanh s lm gim hiu qu trong cng tc qun l tin t, tc tng
trngtndngnhanhhnvcthxyratnhtrnglaha.
PHN III
D BO V CC KHUYN NGH
Victmhiuvthtrngthgii,nhnnhthgiistngtiudng
nhngmthngg,nhngthtrngnosnilnnhtrungtmtiudng
cathgiitrongtnglailrtcnthitccmtnhhngng
chohngxutkhuVitNam.Thtrngthgiitrongngnhnscnhng
thay i ng k do nhiu nguyn nhn khch quan v ch quan. V khch
quan,cuckhnghongtichnhtonculmthayimcsngvthunhp
camtbphnlnngitiudng,lmcuvhnghaxaxgimi,thay
vo,cuvhnghathityustngln.Vchquan,tnhhnhmikhu
vc,miqucgiatrnthgiicthayisdnnvictnghocgimcu,
lmnhhngnthngmithgii,cthnhsau:
1. D BO CHUNG V XU HNG TH TRNG XUT KHU
SchaithayilntrongbnnhpkhucathgiilkhiOECD
vChu.KhiOECDsgimttrngtiudngtrongtngcucathgii
trongkhiChu,cthlTrungQuc,nvIndonesianilnnhnhng
trungtmtiudngmicathgii.
1.1 Tiu dng ca khi OECD st gim
Tnhtnacuinm2008n9thngunm2009,nhpkhucakhi
OECD gim ng k, t 951,04 t USD trung bnh mi thng u nm 2008
gimxungcn617,49tUSD,615,25tUSDv617,37tUSDvoccthng
3,4,5nm2009.nthng8nm2009,nhpkhuphchinh,tngln666,83
tUSD 26.Sphchinycgiithchdosphchikinhtthgii,khi
thgiidndnthotkhikhnghong.Tuynhin,theoccnhnghincu,
t trng tiu dng ca OECD trong tng tiu dng th gii s gim, t 65%
trongccnmtrcxungcn55%.OECDkhngtiudngtimvccth
trngkhctridy,tiudngnhiuhnlmgimittrngcaOECD.Con
s tuyt i c th vn tng nhng con s tng i ang gim dn. L hai
trongs30qucgiathnhvincaOECD,tronggiaion20092015,HoaK
v Nht Bn cng khng nm ngoi xu hng tiu dng ca c khi. th
diychothydbotctngnhpkhucaccqucgianyvnm
mtronggiaion20092010vchkhisctcuinm2010tri.
BIU 5. D bo tc tng nhp khu c a Hoa K v Nht Bn- Giai on 2009 2015
iunykhinchohotngxutkhucaVitNamgpbtlibi
mtthctlccqucgianhpkhuchnhcaVitNamlilnhngqucgia
chuhuqunngntrongcuckhnghongkinhttoncuhinnaykhin
nhucuvhngnhpkhucaccqucgianygimmnh.Nhngphn
tchgnychothy,nnkinhtHoaKchuynbinchmchp,ccncEU
chathycduhiuphchi,cnnnkinhtNhtBncdonstng
26
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=INEQUALITY
trngmtrongnm2009(5,8%)27.Rrng,vinhngdbovsphchi
kinhtvtctngnhpkhucaHoaKvNhtBntrongtnht23nm
tinhvy,chngtacththyVitNamsgpnhiukhkhntronghot
ngxutkhunutiptcchtptrungvonhngthtrnglnnhtny.
Vy,vntralcnylChnhphphicnhngnhhngngn
cthchuyndchccuthtrngxutkhutheohngtchccmt
mtvnduytrcnhngthtrngxutkhutruynthng,mtkhctm
kimnhngthtrngtimnngkhcnhmhnchrirokhixyranhng
binngkinhtnhhinnay.
1.2 S tri dy ca cc th trng Chu
ccoilnnkinhttiudnglnnhtthgii,t15nmnay,ngi
tiu dng M chi khong 9.500 t USD mi nm cho tng trng kinh t th
gii. Tuy nhin, khng hong ton cu bt u t nm 2008 lm thay i
ngkmctiudngcnhncaHoaK.TiliucaCcDtrlinbang
HoaK(FED)chothy,chtrongbathngcuinmngoi,cchgianhHoa
Kmtti5.100tUSD,tngng9%gitrtisn.ylsmtmtcha
tngctrongsut57nmFEDtheodisliunyvcnglquth6lin
tipgitrtisncacchgianhMixung.Hinnay,ngitiudng
Mbtutitkim.Nutltitkimnm2007t0%thvothng1/2009
t l ny l 5%. Ngi tiu dng M, khch hng ln nht ca cc nh xut
khuchu,cvnhangthayicbnthiquenmuasmcah,mua
nhnghnghatttinhnvthityuhn.
Cu hi c t ra y l, nu M khng cn gi v tr quc gia tiu
dngs1thgiinathqucgiahayvnglnhthnosthchnM?Tp
ch Kinh doanh Harvard (HBR) ngy 27/08/2009 a ra 2 kch bn cho th
trngthgiinnm2020nhsau:
1. Kch bn 1: Chu c th ni ln nh mt trung tm tiu dng mi.
TrungQucvnuctrn1tdn,vithunhpmctrung,
mihgianhcthtmcthunhp20.000USD/nm.Consny
c th cho thy kh nng v mt s bng n trong tiu dng ti cc
qucgianytrongtnglaign.TrungQucstrthnhnnkinht
tiudnglnth3cathgii(sauEUvHoaK),cnnlth5
(sauNhtBn)vonm2020.Khi,3trongs5nnkinhttiudng
ln nht th gii s thuc v Chu v Chu s ni ln nh mt
trungtmtiudngncccathgii.
27
Japan:CountryAnalysisReportIndepthPESTLEInsights,August2009
2. Kchbn2:Xuhngtiudngthgiicthtrthnhacc.Gis
TrungQucvn vngi ctc tngtrngcao nh hin
naynhngchnhphccncnylimunduytrtltitkimcao
vtltiudngthp.Khi,HoaK,EUvNhtvnsduytrvtr
trongnhm3nnkinhtctltiudnglnnhtthgii,nhngvi
tctngtrngchmdn.SauminvtrcaTrungQucv
n28.
Trong 2 kch bn trn, d th trng tiu dng th gii pht trin theo
hng n cc hay a cc, Trung Quc v n vn s ni ln nh nhng
trung tm tiu dng mi do li th v dn s v tc tng trng n nh
trong nhiu nm. Ngoi ra, cng phi k n mt s quc gia mi ni khc
trongkhuvcChunhIndonesiavMalaysia.KchbnHBRaracng
trngvidbocaccnhnghincukinhtkhctrnthgii.Trangthng
tin http://www.marketlineinfo.com chuyn v cc vn kinh doanh v th
trngca215qucgiatrnthgiicngaradbovtctngtrng
mnh m trong kim ngch nhp khu ca Trung Quc v n trong giai
on20102015.
BIU 6. D bo tc tng kim ngch nhp khu mt s nc trn th gii
25
20
Trung Quc
15
10
Nht Bn
20
15
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
11
0
20
10
Tc tng kim ngch nhp khu (%)
giai on 2010 2015
Ngun: http://www.marketlineinfo.com
28
http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/hbr/hbrnow/2009/08/trendtowatchshiftingconsum.html
thtrnchothy,cnglnhngnnkinhtln,chunhhngnng
ntcucsuythoikinhttoncu,trongkhiHoaKvNhtBnangdn
phc hi tc tng trng nhp khu 45% th Trung Quc v n
vnlnmnhmmc1823%trongnm2010vtiptcduytrmc17
19%trongccnmtiptheo.iuny,ngoihainguynnhncptrn
lquymdnsvtngtrngnnhtrongnhiunm,cncgiithch
bngmtnguynnhnnalsxuthincamttnglpdncmi,c
bitlTrungQuc.Tnglpdncsinhnyravlnlntrongiukinvt
chty,khng b rng bucbitm l titkim cath htrc, b nh
hng bi phong cch tiu dng u M, ang dn tng bc bin Trung
Qucthnhxhitiudng.
Din bin trn th trng quc t nh vy nh hng nh th no n
chinlcxutkhucaVitNam?Khithtrngtiudnglnnhtthgii
cdonlqucgialnggingvimnh,VitNamstndngchiny
nhthno?ylbitonln,tracchivthchthcchohngxut
khucaVitNam.Chotinay,dngnhVitNamchacschunbcho
sdchchuyntrongccutiudng,cngnhstridycangiTrung
Qucdigclmtthtrngtoln.Do,trongthigianti,chngta
nncnghincuvvnny.
2. D BO V TNG KIM NGCH V TC TNG TRNG 2010
cthdbomtcchtngqutnhtvtngkimngchxutkhuca
VitNamtrongnm2010,boconghincusdngdbomQutintquc
t(IMF)vNgnhngphttrinChu(ADB)aravtctngtrngGDP
caVitNamtrongnm2010,cncvohscamhnhdbovtng
trngxutkhucaVitNamtrongnm2010.
ChaikchbndbovtngtrngGDPcaVitNamtrongnm2010.
Chaikchbnutnhnvickhnghongkinhttoncutiptccnh
hngtinnkinhtcaVitNam(mcdnnkinhtVitNamcnh
gilchmykhnghongunm2009).NnkinhtVitNamschu
nh hng t vic bin ng gi c th gii, thay i trong c ch vay vn
(trongvngoinc)vvicVitNamcadnghathtrng,adngha
snphmchaykhng.
Ngn hng pht trin Chu (ADB) a ra d bo lc quan hn so vi
Qutintquct(IMF)vitctngtrngdbochonm2010l6,5%.
DbonycaADBcaratrncsginhrngChnhphskhng
athmchnhschnilngtikhatrongnmtivNgnhngTrungng
sthchinchnhschtintthtcht.Ngoira,dbonycngctnh
tontrncstrongnm2010,victhiuhtngoitscgiiquytthng
quacchtgilinhngvtngcungngoittrnthtrng.
BNG 8. D bo v tng trng kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam trong nm 2010
n v: %
D bo ca IMF
D bo ADB
Tng trng GDP
5,3
6,5
Tng trng tng kim ngch xut khu
6,36
7,8
Ngun: D bo tng trng GDP ca IMF v ADB
Bncnh,trangwebhttp://www.marketlineinfo.comaradbo
vtnhhnhxutkhucaVitNamtrongnm2010nhtrongthdiy:
BIU 7. D bo tc tng kim ngch xu t khu ca Vit Nam giai on 2000 2010
DbonylcquanhndbocaIMFvADBkhichorng,xutkhu
caVitNam,sautsuygimvonm2009vitngkimngchcn52tUSD
(tngtrng24%sovinmtrc),sangnnm2010scsphchinh,
tngln59tUSD(tngtrng8%).Consnycnkmxaconstnhtonca
dbonyvtnhhnhxutkhunm2008(72tUSD)vvnkmhncons
xutkhuthctcaVitNamnm(62,7tUSD).Tuynhin,theonhgi
canhmnghincu,dtntiskhcnhauvconsdbo,imchungca
ccdbonyluarakchbnphchinhchoxutkhuVitNamvo
nm2010.Theonhmtcgi,sphchinhtheonhngdbonylhon
tonkhthidosphchicaccnnkinhtlnccnhnhpkhulnsau
khnghong.Dbonycngtrngvitnhtoncanhmnghincutheo
phngphptrungbnhtrtphnsaukhichorngxutkhucaVitNam
trnccthtrngchnhnm2010utngsovinm2009.
3. D BO V XU HNG SN PHM V TH TRNG XUT KHU C TH CHO GIAI ON
2010-2011
c mt d bo v kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam ti tng th
trng i tc trng im trong thi gian ti, bo co s dng phng php
trungbnhtrt(movingaverage),cncvodysliu14nmivitng
thtrngdonvkimngchxutkhutngngvitngthtrng
trong nm 2010. Bo co p dng c ba phng php ca trung bnh trt l
phngphptrungbnhtrtginn,trungbnhtrtctnhnsailch
tuyticakimngchxutkhuquaccnmvtrungbnhtrttnhnsai
lchtngicakimngchxutkhuquaccnm.
mi mt phng php (nu trn), nhm chuyn gia nghin cu tin
hnhtnhtonsaisgiadbovthctinkimngchxutkhuquaccnm
19982008,ttnhlchchuncbaphngphp.
BNG 9. lch chun gia thc tin v d on cc nm 1998-2008 29
Th trng
lch chun
Phng php 1
Phng php 2
Phng php 3
7109,4
3008,8
4615,9
Australia
695537,9
164022,4
242672,9
ASEAN
2243843,9
283200,7
765981,3
EU
2463119,7
242815,6
908683,6
Hn Quc
110821,0
28060,0
50299,7
Hoa K
5356637,1
332532,2
1655929,4
Nht Bn
1886548,0
389641,3
864981,8
Trung Quc
588131,4
257696,7
270003,4
Ngun: Tnh ton ca nhm nghin cu

29
GiithchcthvbaphngphpcatrungbnhtrtctrnhbycthtrongPhlc2
Nhvy,ttcccthtrngcnghincutrongccnm19982008,
lchchuntheophngphpth2cxcnhlnhnht.Bocola
chnphngphpth2tnhdbokimngchxutkhuchonm2010v
ktquctrnhbytrongbngsauy:
BNG 10. D bo xut khu ca Vit Nam trong nm 2010 ti mt s th trng chnh
n v: Triu USD
Th trng
D bo xut khu nm 2010
682
Australia
4.797,1
ASEAN
11.881,2
EU
14.625
Hn Quc
2.761
Hoa K
15.768
Nht Bn
12.235,2
Trung Quc
5.950,2
KhostkindoCcXctinthngmitchcthng11nm2009
thucmtsdbovtnhhnhthtrngnhpkhucathgiivc
hi cho hng xut khu Vit Nam. Theo , trong 23 nm ti, cc th trng
truynthngcaVitNamvnscxuhngtiptcnhpkhuccmthng
ang l th mnh ca Vit Nam nh: dt may, da giy, go, my tnh v sn
phm in t, du th, cao su Ngoi ra, mt s mt hng nh: g, ha
cht, gm s, thy hi sn cng c nhiutim nng m rng th trng
xutkhu.Cth,chichohngxutkhuVitNammtsthtrngln
nhsau:
Th trng Trung Quc: D bo trong thi gian ti, Trung Quc s tng cng
nhpkhunhngmthngnhmngtchhpvthpviint;duth;
tmmnhnhtinhthlng;qungst;chtdosch;thitbxlsliut
ngvbkin;thp;xngdu;thitbmchbovngngtvlinhkin;
ngvtliuvphi.Trong,duth,qungstvxngducdbol
c tc tng nhp khu cao (6070% trong giai on 20102012 v 80 85%
tronggiaion20132015).Tuynhin,trongsccmthngny,chcmts
tmthngthucnhmmthngxutkhutimnngcaVitNam.Cnli,
nhng mt hngTrungQuc chyunhpkhut VitNam s baogm20
mt hng chnh30: (1). ng vt sng, sn phm ng vt; (2). Sn phm thc

vt,nngsn;(3).Du,mngthcvt;(4).Thcphm,ung,ru,thuc
l;(5).Khongsn;(6).Hacht;(7).Chtdovchphm,caosu;(8).Dav
chphm,valitixch;(9).Gvchphm;(10).Btgiy,giy;(11).Nguyn
liudtvsnphm;(12).Giydp,m,d,hoanhnto;(13).Chphmt
khongcht,gms,knh;(14).Vngbc,qu,ngctrai,trangsc;
(15).Kimloivchphm;(16).Snphmcin;(17).Xec,tuthuynv
thitbvnti;(18).Thitbquanghc,thitbyt,ngh,nhckh;(19).V
kh,thucn;(20).Tcphmnghthut,sutm,c.Mtsmthng
nhkhongsn,hacht,davchphm,nguynliudtvsnphm,giy
dp, m d, hoa nhn to, ch phm t khong cht, gm s, knh, sn
phmcincdboctctngcaohnc,tuynhincngcht20
40%;ccmthngkhctctngcht210%trong3nmtiv815%trong
giaion20132015.
Th trng Hoa K s tng cng nhp khu cc mt hng may mc, giy
dp cc loi, ch bin nng sn thc phm v cc sn phm chm sc sc
khevscp,cngnghthngtin(mytnh,ccloimyccngngh
nhmyghihnh),nitht,dngcththaophcvchonhucu
trongnc.
Giai on 20132015, kh nng kinh t Hoa K s hi phc v t l tht
nghipcthquayvmckhongtrn5%.Nhvy,chitiutiudngchim
70%nnkinhtckhnngchiphcvtngtrng.Cngvikhnng
mrngvphttrinsnxut,cngnhquenthtrng,ccdnutca
HoaKivohotng,ccnhmhngxutkhutimnngcaVitNams
tngvmtsnhmhngmisxuthinnhckh,cngngh.Datrnd
bocaccnhkinhtHoaKvkinhtHoaKvkhnngxutkhuca
ccdoanhnghipVitNam,CquanidinthngmiVitNamtiHoaK
ctnhkimngchxutkhucaVitNamsangHoaKtrongccgiaion
nhsau:
30
CcXTTM(2009),KtqukhostkinCquanidinthngmiVitNamtincngoithng11/2009
BNG 11. D bo kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam sang Hoa K
TT
1
2
Mc tng trng bnh qun hng nm
Tn mt hng
Dt may
Da giy
2010- 2012
2013- 2015
2%-3%
3%-5%
12%-14%
12%-14%
g v ni tht
-2%
2%-5%
Nng sn
-1%
3%-5%
Thy hi sn
- 3%
2%-4%
Cc mt hng CN, th CN khc v mt hng khc
8%-10%
10%-12%
Du m, kh t, ha du
-8%
2%-4%
Cc sn phm c kh, cng ngh
3%-5%
5%-8%
Ngun: Cc XTTM (2009), Kt qu kho st kin C quan i din thng mi Vit Nam ti nc ngoi thng 11/ 2009
Th trng Nht Bn:NhngmthngVitNamctimnngxutsangNht

BnunmtrongnhngmthngNhtBnstngcngnhpkhutrong
giaionspti.
BNG 12. D bo kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam sang Nht Bn
TT
Tn mt hng

2012- 2012
2013- 2015
Dt may
10%
15%
Giy da
10%
15%
Du th
5%
7%
10%
10%
Gm s
10%
10%
Dy in
7%
10%
Th trng EU:MithnhvintrongEUcnhucuvihngnhpkhukhc
nhauvdo,thphnchohngxutkhuVitNamskhcnhau.
Th trng c:snhpkhunhngmthng:giydp,dtmay,cph,
g,da,caosuthinnhin,mymcthitbvnphng,hngchtdo,hng
gms.MtsmthngxutkhucaVitNamsangcnhgiydp,dt
may, my mc thit b vn phng d bo s gim (ln lt gim 10%, 5% v
20%)trongkhiccmthngnhcph,g,thysn,chtdotngmnh
2030%,ccmthngnhgms,caosutng510%.
Th trng Th Nh K:nhmhngtimnngxutkhucaVitNamtronggiai
on20102012gm:maymc,si;snphmchtdo;giydp;caosuvcc
sn phmt cao su;giav (tiu); g;mymcthit b phtng; linhkin
in t; thp v sn phm t thp; my, ph tng c kh. Mc tng trng
trngbnhqunt1015%/nm.
Th trng B:10mthngnhpkhuchyucaBulnhngmthng
xutkhutimnngcaVitNam.
BNG 13. D bo kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam sang B
TT
Tn mt hng

2012- 2012
2013- 2015
Thu hi sn
5-7%
3-5%
Giy dp
2-4%
5-7%
C ph
8-12%
15%
Valy, ti xch cc loi
7-9%
10%
Hng may mc
10-13%
11%
g gia dng
17-20%
18%
xy dng
7-9%
10%
Gh & cc loi m gh
12%
15%
Hng tiu dng ,CN nh &TCMN
10%
17%
10
Kim cng
5-7%
6%
Vi mt s th trng nh khc, c cu mt hng xut khu cng nm

trong nhm cc mt hng trn, tuy tc tng trng cao nhng kim ngch
xutkhuvncnkhimtn.
th trng chu Phi, Vit Nam c tim nng xut khu sang Nigeria nhng
mthngnh:snphmdtmay;mytnh,snphmint;smlpt,xe
my;snphmstvthp,gchplt;go;thysn;thuctndc;phtng
t,xemy;snphmcaosu.Mctngtrngkimngchxutkhumimt
hngbnhqunut1520%.
Nam Phi cng l mt th trng ln v rt tim nng i vi xut khu
VitNam.Cncvonhucunhpkhucathtrngny,VitNamcth
xutkhuduth,thitbin,nhavccsnphmtnha,hacht,st
thp,caosu,giy,s,giyda,g.
Vi th trng Nam M, Braxin l mt i din nhp khu tiu biu ca Vit
Nam.Donmc(tl)tngtrnghngnm(20102015)vnhmhng
ctimnngxutkhucaVitNamsangthtrngBraxinkhngcaocht5
10%trong3nmtiv515%trong3nmtiptheo.
BNG 14. D bo kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam sang Braxin
TT
Sn phm
2010 2012
(T l tng trng)
2013 2015
(T l tng trng)
Giy dp
T 5 n 8 %
T 5 n 8 %
C kh, hng in t
T 6 n 10 %
T 6 n 10 %
Hng dt may
T 5 n 8 %
T 5 n 8 %
Cao su
T 6 n 15 %
T 8 n 18 %
Valy, ti sch
T 5 n 8 %
T 5 n 8 %
Sm lp
T 6 n 15 %
T 8 n 18 %
Sn phm nha, chi tr em
T 3 n 5 %
T 5 n 7 %
Bnh ko, hng thc phm
T 3 n 6 %
T 5 n 8 %
Hng th cng, m ngh
T 6 n 15 %
T 8 n 18 %
10
Ho cht
T 6 n 15 %
T 8 n 18 %
11
Gm, s
T 6 n 10 %
T 8 n 15 %
12
Cc loi khc
T 5 n 10 %
T 5 n 10 %
Ngoi Braxin, Argentina cng l mt th trng xut khu m Vit Nam

cn quan tm trong khu vc Nam M. Ngy 17/8/2007, Tng cc Hi quan
ArgentinacngbQuytnhN57/2007vkimtrahnghanhpkhu
trnhhintnggianlnthuivihngnhpkhubnphgihocivi
nhngsnphmkhngchnguithngmixutxtTrungQuc
v cc nc v vng lnh th nhm G.4 (Grupo 4) bao gm: CHDCND Triu
Tin,HnQuc,Philippin,HngKng,n,Indonesia,Malaysia,Pakistan,
iLoan,ThiLan,SingaporevVitNamvimcchngnchnhngha
nhp khu t cc th trng ny vo Argentina. Nhng mt hng b hn ch
nhp khu bao gm: Hng dt may, chi, ti xch, cp, v bng vi hoc
nha,xepvphtng,lpxe,bnhxe,migiy,hngcngnghthngtin,
int,ngh,hngkimkhvdngc.Nhvy,danhmchngxut
khucaVitNamsangArgentinabnhhngrtnhiudonhngkhkhn
trongvicxutkhunhngmthngthucnhmhnchtrn.Tuynhin,Vit
NamvncthymnhxutkhusangArgentinanhngmthngsau:du
vkhthinnhin,mymc,xengc,hachthuc,nha.
Tmli,bngtnghpkincquanidinthngmiVitNamti
ncngoichothy,trongthigianngnhn(23nmti)cngnhtrunghn
(56nmti),dbohngxutkhuVitNamkhngnhngvnduytrc
nhngmthngtruynthngmcncchimrngdanhmchngxut
khu.Kimngchvtctngtrngxutkhunhnchungcngstngu
nquaccnmtrnttcccnhmhng,ngoitrmtsmthngsctc
tngtrnggimnh:g,nitht;nngsn,thyhisn;dum,kh
t,hadu(thtrngHoaK)haygiydp,dtmay,mymcthitbvn
phng (th trng c). iu ny c l gii mt mt do nh hng ca
khnghongkinhtdntisccugim,mtkhcdotcngtnhnghng
rophithuquannhmbohsnxutniacaqucgianhpkhu.
4. D BO V KIM NGCH XUT KHU CA VIT NAM N NM 2020
Nhmnghincusdngphngphptrungbnhtrtbcutin
hnhdbovtnhhnhxutkhucamtsmthngchlc(nhhngdt
may,hngdagiy,hngthysn)trongkhongthigian20102020nhsau:
Ngoi ra, nhm nghin cu s dng kt qu nghin cu t trang web

http://www.marketlineinfo.comccdbovtnhhnhxutkhuca
VitNamnnm2015.Theo,vtquakhnghongnm2009,xutkhu
caVitNamstmctngtrngmivkimngchcngnhtc
tngtrngstnglnunquaccnm.nnm2015,dtnhkimngch
xutkhucaVitNamstconshn120tUSD,vitctngtrng
trungbnh18%/nm.Nhmnghincusdngdbonhnthytnhchnh
xctrongdbonydocldochquanvkhchquancnurtrongd
bocatrangwebhttp://www.marketlineinfor.com.Vchquan,shtrt
cchotngxctinthngmi,cchipnhthngmivnhngcitin
tbnthndoanhnghipxutkhugipnngcaonnglcxutkhuca
doanhnghip,mrngthtrngvtngkimngch.Vkhchquan,kinht
phchivgiatngdnstincnhpkhulnguynnhnlmtngcu
nhpkhu.
BIU 8. D bo tc tng kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam ti nm 2015
5. CC KHUYN NGH THAY I CN THIT V CHNH SCH NHM NNG CAO NNG LC
XUT KHU
nng cao nng lc cnh tranh ca hng xut khu Vit Nam, nhm
nghincuaramtskhuynnghthayicnthitnhsau:
KhuynnghvccchnhschcaNhnc
Khuynnghvchnhschxctinxutkhu
Khuynnghvthtrngmctiu
Khuynnghvvicthamgiachuigitrtoncu
5.1 Khuyn ngh v cc chnh sch ca Nh nc

nngcaonnglcxutkhucaccdoanhnghip,Nhnccnc
ccchnhschphhpnhmtonglcchoccdoanhnghiput,xut
khuhngharancngoi,cth:
Nhnccnsmbanhnhchnhschvcchtndngxutkhu
htrccdoanhnghiput,xutkhuvoccthtrngmihoc
ccthtrngnhiuriro.
Nhncnnymnhcchhtrccdoanhnghipthcyu
trancngoivbunbnquct,nhtlutvonhngncc
timnngsnxuthnghakhngchphcvthtrngncsti
m cn xut khu ra th trng th gii, nhm to ra b phn kinh t
mmcanctabnngoilnhthVitNam.
Ngoira,Nhnccngcnxydngbcsdliuthngnhtv
y v cc doanh nghip Vit Nam nhm h tr cc doanh nghip
trongnctmhiuthngtinvitcv/hocccdoanhnghipnc
ngoicchitmhiungunthngtinchnhthngvitcVit
Nam, t nng cao hiu qu hot ng pht trin kinh doanh trong
nccngnhquct,ngthigipminhbchhahthngthng
tindoanhnghip.
5.2 Khuyn ngh v chnh sch xc tin xut khu
Xctinxutkhuccoilmttrongnhngnhntquantrngnht
trongqutrnhtipcnthtrngcasnphmxutkhu.Cngtcxctin
xut khu ca Vit Nam tnh n nm 2009 c nh gi l tng i hiu
qu. Cc s kin xc tin xut khu cp quc gia c t chc ngy cng
chuynnghiphn,manglihiuqucaohn.
Tuynhin,trongiukincnhtranhquctgaygtnhhinnay,cng
tcxctinxutkhuvncntntinhiuhnch,lmgimtnhcnhtranh
cahnghaVitNamtrnthtrngquctnhchraphn2cabo
conghincuny.khcphcnhngtnti,hnchny,nhmnghincu
xutmtskhuynnghnhsau:
Nng cao hiu qu v cht lng ca cc chng trnh xc tin
thng mi cp quc gia, u tin vic tuyn truyn, tm kim hp
ng v khch hng ln, lu di, trnh vic ch tp trung vo bn
hngtrctipticchichtrinlm;Tintixydngtiuchv
quychxydnggianhngchunqucgiatrongccskinxctin
xut khu; Ci tin cng tc xc tin thng mi, khng lm din
rngvtuyntruynchungchungmcnlmsutngtrngim,
chuyn ngnh, chuyn sn phm; Nng cao kh nng thu thp
thngtin,phntchthtrngcacccquanidinthngmi
nc nc ngoi, cc t chc xc tin thng mi cng nh ca
doanhnghipthamgia.
Thayi,imicchtipcnthtrngtruynthngnhtchc
cc on i kho st th trng nhm mc ch nng cao hiu qu,
gimchiph...Nnpdnghnhthcnyvinhngthtrngmi,
kinht chapht trin, thiuthng tinhocthp tngccon cp
cao ca nh nc i cng tc nc ngoi. Khng nn t chc qu
nhiuonxctinthngmitheocchtchchithogiithiu
timnng,tmhiuchigiaothngvomtthtrngtrongmt
thigianqugnnhauvnidungmthnggiithiucaVitNam
a phn l ging nhau (may mc, giy dp, nng sn, th cng m
ngh).Nnkthpthamgiatrinlmqucttincstinhiu
hn v y l c hi tt giao luvi khch hng, gii thiu hng
haVitNam,khngchcncstimcncccdoanhnghip
nckhctithamd.
Ccchngtrnhxctinthngmicnphicxydngnnh
trc12nmccdoanhnghiptrongvncngoibittrc,lp
khochchngthamgia.Ngoira,vicduytkinhphccchng
trnh xc tin thng mi hng nm nn theo c ch mm, ngha l
khngnhtthitccchngtrnhphicduyttcuinmtrc,
m trong nm nn c b sung cho ph hp. Chng trnh no khng
kpthchintrongnmthcthchuynsangnmsau,trnhvicbuc
phithchintrckhihtnm.YucuB CngThngchng
traoiviBNgoigiaovBTichnhsmxclpcchsdng
kinhphdnhchochngtrnhxctinthngmiivicccquan
idinthngmiVitNamtincngoi.
Xemxtvicthitlpmcgiithiunnglcsnxut,kinhdoanhca
cc doanh nghip trn trang web ca B Cng Thng, Cc Xc tin
Thngminhmgiithiuchokhchhngquct,khchhngtrong
nc cng nh c quan i din thng mi nc ngoi v doanh
nghipsnxut,kinhdoanhtrongnc,tgpphnnngcaohiu
ququngbhngxutkhucaVitNam.
Nngcaonnglccacccquanidinthngmincngoi
lcngtcrtquantrng,yucutngbcphicchinlcnng
cao nng lc ca i ng tham tn, ty vin thng mi. Bng cch
otochuynmnhaingthaynhauchuynlmcngtcny,
cchuynmncaovhotngthungmiquct,nmrlutl
chnh sch thng mi mang tnh ton cu, ngoi ng gii. Do vy,
cnbsungthmlclngcnbcccquanidinthngmi
nc ngoi c th c iu kin nghin cu, tm hiu, kho st
nhucuthtrng.
TiptctrinkhaithnhlpccTrungtmxctinthngmivgii
thiusnphmticcthtrngtrngimcungcpthngtinhai
chiuchoccdoanhnghipVitNamvccdoanhnghipccncs
ti; Qung b hnh nh quc gia v thng hiu sn phm ca cc
doanhnghipVitNam.Cctrungtmnygivaitrlcunigia
ccdoanhnghipVitNamvccdoanhnghipsti,lachtincy
caVitNamvicccquannhnc,cchiphi,doanhnghipVit
Namticcthtrngny.
Cn hon thin v ban hnh c ch ti chnh n nh cho hot ng
xctinthngmi,coiylnhimvtrngtmcaxctinxut
khu. y l cch thc h tr tt cho hot ng xut khu m vn
tunththeoccquynhcaWTOlkhnghtrxutkhumt
cch trc tip. Hng nm nh nc cn phi cn i mt t l ngn
sch nh nc nht nh v n nh cho hot ng xc tin thng
mi.KinhphcngiaotrctipchoBCngThng,cquanc
nh ncgiao trch nhim qun lv iu hnhhot ng xctin
thngmitrntonqucnhmtngtnhchngvmbovic
iu hnh kp thi v th trng, mt hng xut khu theo s bin
nglintccathctin.
Nng cao hiu qu ca cc on doanh nghip thp tng lnh o

Nh nc, Chnh ph i cng tc nc ngoi. Cn sm lp k
hochvcngtcxctinthngmivutvchunby
thngtincnthitcthcungcpchoitcmtcchchnhxc
vhiuqu.
Cnkthpcchotngxctinthngmivixctinutv
xc tin du lch trong cc hot ng mang tm quc gia ti cc
thtrng.
5.3 Khuyn ngh v hng ha xut khu v th trng mc tiu
Nhphntchtrongphndbovthtrngxutkhu,trongthi
gianti,ccqucgiaChu,cbitlTrungQucstrthnhmtnnkinh
t tiu dng mi ni. iu ny ng ngha vi vic nhu cu nhp khu ca
Trung Quc s tng cao. Tnh hnh tng t cng s xy ra ti n hay
Indonesia.Nhvy,bncnhnhngkhchhngtruynthngvikimngch
nhpkhulnnhM,EU,NhtBn,vicxuthinmtlotthtrngChu
minirrnglmttnhiuttchohotngxutkhucaVitNam.
Xutkhusangccqucgiavvnglnhthny,VitNamstndngc
li th v khong cch a l v nhiu nt tng ng v vn ha. Do s
manglimtsthunlitrongvictipcnvmrngthtrngxutkhu.
Chnh v vy, khuyn ngh ca nhm nghin cu a ra cho xut khu Vit
Nam trong tng lai gn l hng v th trng Trung Quc, n v
Indonesia,cithinccuhngxutkhupngnhucunhpkhuca
ccqucgiany.
VibathtrnglnlHoaK,NhtBnvEU,VitNamnnchtrng
ccmthngsau:
-
ThtrngHoaK:ccmthngnh:dtmay,dagiy,gvsn
phmnitht,nngsn,thyhisn,dum,kht
Th trng Nht Bn: dt may, giy da, du th, g, gm s,

dyin
ThtrngEU:giydp,dtmay,cph,g,da,thyhisn,
caosuthinnhin,mymcthitbvnphng,hngchtdo,hng
gms
Ngoibathtrnglnny,chimrachoxutkhuVitNamccth
trngminiChugmnhngmthngsau:
TrungQuc:ngvtsng,snphmngvt;Snphmthcvt,
nngsn;Du,mngthcvt;Thcphm,ung,ru,thuc
l; Khong sn; Ha cht; Cht do v ch phm, cao su; Da v ch
phm,valitixch;Gvchphm;Btgiy,giy;Nguynliudt
vsnphm;Giydp,m,d,hoanhnto;Chphmtkhong
cht,gms,knh;Vngbc,qu,ngctrai,trangsc;Kim
loivchphm;Snphmcin;Xec,tuthuynvthitbvn
ti;Thitbquanghc,thitbyt,ngh,nhckh;Vkh,thuc
n;Tcphmnghthut,sutm,c
n:Go,cph,httiu,ng,hacht,duth
Indonesia: mymc thitb,hacht,nhin liu, thcphm,g v

ccsnphmtg,visiccloi,mytnhvsnphmlinhkin
int
5.4 Khuyn ngh v vic tham gia chui gi tr ton cu (Global value chain)
HnghaVitNam,cbitlhngnngsn,dtmay,khithamgiaxut
khuvnbxpvonhmhnggiacng,schhocnguynliuth,tclgi
tr thp nn mc d khi lng xut khu ln nhng gi tr gia tng khng
nhiu, dn n gi tr xut khu khng cao. nng cao gi tr gia tng cho
hngxutkhuVitNam,ccc quannhncnntptrungchoviccung
cp thng tin th trng v thc hin cc chng trnh xc tin mang tm c
quc gia, tp trung vo chin lc xy dng thng hiu i vi nhng mt
hngVitNamxutkhuvcthtrngthgiichpnhnnhgo,c
ph,thcngmngh;Tngbcthitlphthngphnphiticcnc
vkhuvctrnthgiimangligitrxutkhucao.Hinnay,chngta
chachthngphnphinnccnhsnxutVitNamchnhccil
sn xut v cungcp cho ccnh phnphinc ngoi m hon ton khng
chngviuhnhcgixutkhu,trongkhiVitNamcthlmc
tthnsovithcthinti.
5.5 Khuyn ngh chng trnh hnh ng

PH LC 1
M T M HNH TRNG LC
M HNH TRNG LC GRAVITY MODEl

Mhnhcdngnhsau:
Lnexp=o+1lnYi+2lnYj+3 D j+4tai+5Border+6lnPj+eij
Trong:
- XijlkimngchxutkhutVitNamsangthtrngj
- YilGDPcaVitNam
- YjlGDPcancmchngtaxutkhuhngha
- DjlkhongcchalgiaVitNamvncmchngtaxutkhu
hngha.Binkhongcchclycnbchainhmchunhaphnphi
cabinkhongcch.
- Pjldnscancj
- TA(TradeAgreement)lbingi,nhngitr1nuVitNamchip
nhthngmisongphngvincmchngtaxutkhuhngha,ti
thi im m s liu c thu thp, nhn gi tr 0 nu Vit Nam khng c
hipnhthngmisongphngviccncmchngtaxutkhuhng
ha,tithiimmsliucthuthp.
- Border l bingi, nhngitr 1 nuVit Namcchung ngbin

giivincmchngtaxutkhuhngha,nhngitr0nuVitNam
khngcchungngbingiivincmchngtaxutkhuhngha.
- eijlsaiscphnphichunvitrungbnhcngbng0vphng
saikhngi.
Kt qu phn tch s dng m hnh trng lc

Ch s ca cc bin gii thch trong m hnh trng lc
Ch s
Ch s thng k t31
Khong tin cy mc 95%
lnGDP
1,2
24,5
1,1 n1,3
lnP
-0,7
-12,4
-0,86 n -0,62
Hip nh thng mi
0,7
3,9
0,34 n1,05
Bin gii
2,1
10,8
1,7 n 2,5
Cn bc hai khong cch
0,02
-6,0
-0,03 n -0,01
Ch s chn
-12,6
-4,2
-6,7 n -2,4
31
Ctnhchtthngkmctrn99%
PH LC 2
M T PHNG PHP D BO
TRUNG BNH TRT
PHNG PHP TH NHT:
- Dbocarabngcchtnhtrungbnhcngginncakimngch
xutkhu3nmlintiptrc.
B4=[B3+B2+B1)]/3
: +B4:Kimngchxutkhucanmth4
+B3:Kimngchxutkhucanmth3
- Sai lch c xc nh lphn chnh lchgiakt qu d bov thc t
dinra.
- lchchuncxcnhlbnhphngcasailchquaccnm
PHNG PHP TH HAI:
- Vicxcnhkimngchdbochonmth4scxcnhcncvo
kimngchxutkhuca3nmlintiptrc.Cngthccthnhsau:
B4=B3+[(B3B2)+(B2B1)]/2
dinra.
- lchchuncxcnhlbnhphngcasailchquaccnm.
PHNG PHP TH BA:
- Vicxcnhkimngchdbochonmth4scxcnhcncvo
kimngchxutkhuca3nmlintiptrc.Cngthccthnhsau:
B4=B3+((B3B2)/B2+(B2B1)/B1)/2
dinra.
- lchchuncxcnhlbnhphngcasailchquaccnm.
PH LC 3
KT QU KHO ST DOANH NGHIP

BAN U
Trong khun kh nghin cu ny, trong nm 2009, Cc Xc tin thng
mi B Cng Thng vTrung tm Nghin cu Chnh schvPht trin
kho st 49 doanh nghip c hot ng xut khu. Ni dung kho st gm
thngtinvccmthngchlccaccdoanhnghip,snhgicadoanh
nghip v tnh cnh tranh ca sn phm trong nc cng nh nhng yu t
thun li hoc cn tr hot ng xut khu ca doanh nghip Vit Nam. Ni
dungiutranhmmcchccinhntngquanviukin,tnhhnhxut
khucaccdoanhnghipVitNamcngnhnhngkhkhnvkinngh
ca doanh nghip i vi nh nc trong hon cnh Vit Nam hi nhp th
gii.Dothigianhnhp,lngphiuthuvtrongnm2009michdng
cons49,nnnhngthngtinnutrongphlcnymangnghathamkho
banu.
Trong nhm doanh nghip c kho st c su loi hnh kinh doanh
chnh,trongdoanhnghipdtmaychimtlcaonht23,7%,thcngm
nghchim27,1%,thy snchim15,3% ,cao su chim11,9%,cn li lthc
phm v ung cng l 6,8%, nng lm sn l 3,4%. Ngoi ra cn mt s
doanhnghipkinhdoanhcclnhvckhcnhbngththao,snxuthng
giadng(slnphiunhnntl%tngha).
Snmtrungbnhhotngcaccdoanhnghipl15nm.ascc
doanh nghip u tham gia hot ng xut khu (50,8% s doanh nghip tr
li)ngaysaukhithnhlp,tsau35nmc33,9%.Trong,thamgiaxut
khungaysaukhithnhlpdoanhnghipkinhdoanhthcphmvung
l 33,3%, cc doanh nghip kinh doanh th cng m ngh l 57,1%, doanh
nghip kinh doanh nng lm sn l 100%, doanh nghip dt may l 30.8%,
doanhnghipthysnl77,8%,doanhnghipcaosul66,7%.
C18/49doanhnghipthamgiachuicungcptrnthtrngthgiitrong
khicti31/49doanhnghipkhngthamgianhngchuicungcpdngny.
Cchthcmccdoanhnghipthamgiathtrngcungcpkhadng,nh:
tvnphngchi nhnhtincngoi, trctip lnh sn xuttham giavo
chui,cungnghngchoccnhhng,siuth,cungcpnguynvtliu,tham
giabnlvoccnhhng,qunnhaythamgianhmtnhcungcp.
Diylmtsthngtinthucbanu:
nh gi sn phm cnh tranh cng loi t nc khc
ivihuhtcctiuchsosnh,ccdoanhnghiptrliunhgi
sn phm trong nc tng ng vi cc sn phm n t nc ngoi v
nhiu mt. Cht lng v tnh a dng mu m sn phm ca hng ha Vit
Namcnhgiltthnhnsovihnghatbnngoi.Cn57,4%
doanh nghip khng nh iu ny. Cc yu t khc nh l gi c, kh nng,
quy m cung ng cng c xem l u th hn hng ngoi. Tuy nhin hot
ngxctinthngmi, dchvbnhngvccyut khccahngni
cnhgilkmhnsovihngngoi.Nhngnhnchungli,ccdoanh
nghipuccinhnkhquanvtnhcnhtranhcahngtrongnc.
Cc yu t to nn s thnh cng ca cc sn phm ca doanh nghip
Biu th t cc yu t to nn thnh cng cho sn phm
100
90
100
,
82.4
80
70
60
47.1
50
40
30
56.9
50
41.2
13.3
20
10
0
Gi c
Cht
lng
Dch v Cng
Qung Yu t
Thit
k/pht i km ngh/ k co, xc khc
thut
tin
trin sn
thng
phm
mi
Theosnhgicaccdoanhnghip,tonnsthnhcngchomt
snphmcnrtnhiuyutnhgic,chtlng,mumsnphm,qung
co, nhng cht lng, gi c v cng ngh/k thut lun l nhng yu t
hngu.Chtlngtt,githnhphichngluncmingitiudng
trongnccngnhngoincnhgicao.csnphmchtlngtt,
gi thnh h th vic i mi cng ngh, k thut l ht sc quan trng. Bn
cnh,ccdchvikmvisnphm(khuynmi,bohnh.)hayi
mi,phttrinsnphmhocqungco,xctinthngmicnglnhng
yutrtcnthittpnnthnhcngchosnphmxutkhu.
Theoccdoanhnghip,cnhiuyuttonnsccnhtranhchosnphm,
hngha.Diylbngxphngccyuttonnthmnhcnhtranh.
Cc yu t to nn th mnh cnh tranh cho sn phm
70
58
60
61,2
61,2
49
50
42
40
32,7
30
17,9
20
10
0
Ngun gc,
xut x
Cht lng
S a dng ca
sn phm
Dch v bn
hng
Kh nng, quy
m cung cp
Cc hot ng
XTTM
Yu t khc
Cht lng l yu t hng u quyt nh n s thnh cng ca sn

phm.Tuynhinhnghacsccnhtranhcaothchtlngthicha.
Theoccdoanhnghipvtquacithnvithtrngrngln
hnvkhtnhthsadngcasnphmcngnhkhnngquym,cung
cp hng ha ca doanh nghp mi l nhng yu t quyt nh u tin
(61,2%). Cht lng ca sn phm ng th 3 (58%), cc hot ng xc tin
ngth4(49%).
Cc kh khn cc doanh nghip xut khu gp phi

Victipxcvithtrngxutkhulnutincaccdoanhnghip
thng l do i tc t tm kim (67,4%), qua tip cn thng qua trin lm
hi ch (59,6%) hoc qua cc knh thng tin h tr xut khu (37%). Do
ccdoanhnghipgpphinhiukhkhnkhithamgiathtrngxutkhu
thgii.
nh gi cc yu t kh khn trn th trng xut khu
,
42.9
Kh khn khc
iu kin trc bn hng, sau bn hng
13.5
Dch v vn ti, gi cc
39
71.1
S cnh tranh
,
53.3
Quy nh v cht lng, k thut,

Quy nh thng hiu bn quyn
12.8
42.9
Quy nh v y t, an ton
Chnh sch thu, hn ngch
27.5
%
Quabiutrntanhnthyrccyutgykhkhnchosnphm
hnghacaccdoanhnghipthamgiaxutkhucaVitNam.Trong,s
cnhtranhcacchnghakhclcntrnhiunht(71,1%),ccquynhv
chtlng,kthutcnglkhkhnkhngnh(53,3%).Ccquynhvyt
vantoncnglyutgycntrnhiutrnthtrngxutkhucadoanh
nghip.Gn40%s doanhnghipchicngchorngdchvvntiv
gicccnglcntrvihngxutkhu.Trongkhivnthnghiu,
bnquyndngnhkhngphilmtkhkhnlncadoanhnghiptrn
thtrngthgii(12,8%).
TI LIU THAM KHO
1.
Bandyopadhyay(2009),EffectsofExportPromotionandImportSubstitution
on Poverty, Inequality and Growth in India: An analysis in closed loop Input
Outputframework,Vnphngthngk,ihcKALYANI,n.
2.
Boumellassa,Houssein&ValinHugo(2008).VietnamsaccessiontoWTO:Ex
post evaluation in a dynamic perspective. CEPPI working paper, no 200831
December.
3.
B Cng thng (2009) Bo co tm tt tnh hnh hot ng cng nghip v

thngmi11thngunm2009
4.
BThngmi(2006)nphttrinxutkhugiaion5nm20062010.
5.
BiNgcSn(2009),NnglcxutkhucadoanhnghipVitNamtrongiu
kinkinhtthtrng.NhxutbnThngtinvtruynthng.
6.
CISDOMA(2003)XctinxutkhucaChnhphchoccdoanhnghipvav
nh,NhxutbnLaongXhi.
Cc XTTM (2008) Bo co chng trnh xc tin thng mi quc gia ba nm
20062008,BCngthng.
David Camino (1992) Export Promotion Policies in Spain and other EEC
countries:SystemandthePerformance.
7.
8.
9.
Dollar, David (2002). Reform, growth and poverty in Vietnam. The paper
presented at the workshop on Economic growth and Household welfare:
PolicylessonforVietnam,Hanoi2001.
10. TrngKhanh (2008), Nng lc cnh tranh ca cc doanh nghip xut khu
nhvvacaVitNam,DinnKinhtvTichnhln7,2627/02/2008
11. Eric Beinhocker & Elizabeth Stephenson, Trend to Watch: Shifting

ConsumptionPatterns,HarvardBusinessReview,28August2009
12. Fukase,E.andW.Martin(1999a)TheEffectoftheUnitedStatesGrantingMost
Favored Nation Status to Vietnam, World Bank Policy Research Working
Paper2219.
13. Fukase, E. and W. Martin (1999b) A Quantitative Evaluation of Vietnams
Accession to the ASEAN Free Trade Area, World Bank Policy Research
WorkingPaper2220.
14. GujaratiD.,N.(2003)BasicEconometrics,NewYork
15. Parker,S.,Phan,VinhQuang.,andNgocAnh,Nguyen.HastheUSVietnam
BilateralTradeAgreementledtohigherFDIintoVietnam?InternationalJournal
ofAppliedEconomics,2(2),September2002,pp199223.
16. PhmThuHng(2007)XctinxutkhucaVitNamChivthch
thckhihinhpWTO,NhxutbnLlunchnhtr.
17. Tngcchiquan(2009)TnhhnhtrinkhaidnhinihaHiquan,
TngccHiquan
18. TrnSu(2006),Nnglccnhtranhcadoanhnghiptrongiukintoncu
ha,Nhxutbnlaong
19. VBF(2007)ChuyngiaocngnghtncngoivoVitNam:Ccnphikim
sotcht,DinndoanhnghipVitNam.
20. Verbeek(2004)AguidetomodernEconometrics,Chichester,Wiley
21. Vnexpress (2009) Vit Nam tng bc trong xp hng chng tham nhng, Bo
Vnexpress, http://vnexpress.net/GL/Thegioi/2009/11/3BA15C6A/ (ln truy
cpgnynht19/11/2009).
22. WorldBank(2007)ExportPromotionAgencies:WhatWorksandWhatDoesnt,
Policy
Research
Working
Paper
http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64165259&theSite
PK=469382&piPK=64165421&menuPK=64166093&entityID=000016406_2007
0323095724(lntruycpgnynht13/11/1009).
NHXUTBNLAONGXHI
NgHaBnh4MinhKhaiHaiBTrngHNi
inthoi:(844)36246921Fax:(844)36246915
BOCOXCTINXUTKHU
20092010
Chutrchnhimxutbn:HTTTHNG
Bintp:INHTHANHHA
Trnhby:NGUYNTHH
Ba:TRNVNPHNG
Sabnin:TRNTHANHTHY
In1.000bn,kh20x28cmtiCngtyCphninThngmiPrima.
Sngkkhochxutbn11572009/CXB/08415/LXH
Quytnhxutbns800/QNXBLXH.

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BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 1

2 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 3

4 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

1. Tng quan v hot ng xut khu cc nm 2008, 2009

1.2.1 Xu hng nhu cu ca th gii trong giai on 2008-2009.......................................................23

1.6.1 nh gi tnh hnh xut khu ca Vit Nam

2.4 Tc ng ca vic gia nhp WTO v cc khu vc mu dch t do (FTA)

1. D bo chung v xu hng th trng xut khu ................................................................................... 61

2. D bo v tng kim ngch v tc tng trng 2010 ........................................................................... 65

6 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

Giai on 20 nm i mi va qua, tnh t nm 1988 n nm 2008,

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 7

8 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

GII THIU V PHNG PHP

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 9

T l kim ngch xut khu tnh trn GDP (%)

Ngun: Marketlineinfo: http://www.marketlineinfo.com

Mc tiu ca bo co l a ra nhng phn tch nhn nh v tnh hnh

10 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

2. PHM VI V NI DUNG NGHIN CU

GIAI ON I: Thu thp thng tin,baogm(i)Gpgcccnbqunlxctin

12 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 13

14 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

PHN TCH TNG QUT

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 15

Ngc li vi nm 2008, bc tranh kinh t ni chung v xut khu ni

Tc tng kim ngch xut khu

Kim ngch xut khu (Triu USD)

Ngun: Marketlineinfo: http://www.marketlineinfo.com

16 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

Ngoi tc ng trc tip ca khng hong kinh t dn ti nhu cu st

Gi tr xut khu 2009

Gi tr xut khu 2009 so

Tng gi tr xut khu

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k (2009)

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 17

khu hng dt may t khong 9 t USD, dn u v mt gi tr xut khu

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 19

20 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

T trng trong tng kim ngch

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 23

T trng trong xut

Tng trng trong

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 25

ha c gi tr ln, ngi xut khu t nhiu s c sc nh hng ti th

26 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

trng xut khu ca Vit Nam8. Cc hng ro ny c th lm gim ng k

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 27

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 29

30 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

Tng kim ngch bnh

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 31

Cc ch th tham gia xut khu

Ngun: n pht trin xut khu giai on 5 nm 2006-2010.

Theo cch phn loi ca Tng cc Thng k, ch th xut khu ca Vit

32 BO CO XC TIN XUT KHU 2009-2010

Cc Xc tin thng mi (VIETRADE) 33

Hp 1. Cc Hip nh ni b khi ASEAN m Vit Nam tham gia trong nm 2008

- Mt s tho thun hp tc, cng nhn ln nhau trong lnh vc y t, xy dng.

- Hip nh Thng mi hng ha ASEAN- n (AIFTA);