PROJECT VARIABILITY

So far we have learnt about CPM Lets learn PERT

Difference Between PERT and CPM

The main difference is whether the time estimates are probabilistic or deterministic The time estimates with high degree of certainty deterministic time estimates If these estimations are subject to variations and can be estimated with probability of variation, such time estimates probabilistic TE

PERT
PERT requires three time estimates for each of the activities in the project
An Optimistic Time Estimate To A Most Likely Time Estimate Tm A Pessimistic Time Estimate Tp Then the Mean Time or Expected Time can be calculated as:

Te = (To + 4Tm + Tp) / 6

PERT
When Expected Time for each of the activities is completed, we need to calculate the
Variance of Each of the Activities and Standard Deviation of the Project

Variance is calculated as

Activity Variance
2

2 (i )

= [ (Tp - To) / 6 ] Where i = Activity A, B, C so on

PERT
Standard Deviation of the Project is calculated as

Standard Deviation of Critical Path (c)

= A + B + C + + i
2

Lastly, we calculate the probability of completion of the project in said time (Ts) by calculating Z value from Z Score table