Literature review

Short Term Forecasting of Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Prices By Mad Nasir Shamsudin and Fatimah Mohd Arshad

This paper provides some short term forecasts of Malaysian crude palm oil prices. The forecasts were derived from a multivariate-autoregressive-moving average (or MARMA) model which integrates the normal autoregressiveintegrated-moving average (ARIMA) model for the residuals into an econometric equation estimated beforehand. The MARMA and econometric models are estimated and tested individually in terms of their comparative forecasting accuracy. The results indicated that the MARMA model produces a relatively more efficient forecast than the econometric model. The MARMA model is then used to generate forecasts for the period of January 1999 to June 1999. The forecast figures are then discussed in their report in relation to the current and expected fundamentals of the crude palm oil market.

Price Discovery through Crude Palm Oil Futures: An Economic Evaluation by By Fatimah Mohd. Arshad and Zainalabidin Mohamed

This research conducted by them examines the forward pricing efficiency of the local crude palm oil (CPO) futures market. In an very efficient market, the relevant signal to be used by -the producers, traders and processors is simply the futures price. The forward pricing efficiency is measured in terms of the forecasting ability of Malaysian crude palm oil futures price on physical price. The relative predictive power of futures price is compared with the various forecasts estimated from proven forecasting techniques like moving

average, exponential smoothing, Box Jenkins and econometric. The relative predictability of futures price as a forecast for spot prices during various months before delivery is also measured.

Short-Term and Long-Term Projection of Malaysian Palm Oil Production By Ramli Abdullah

Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) has long had a keen interest in forecasting its crude palm oil (CPO) production. The forecasts were predicted for short term and longer term. Various factors were studied for forecasting like maturity of area planted, Total area planted, Replanting,, Differences in Yield, data on rainfall. It devised a model for predicting future short and long term prices and considered the effects of factors in detail. The results indicated how much production of palm oil has been increased and what the trends in monthly production patterns are.