KINH T V M - GI THUYT, TNH THI IM V CC CHNH SCH KINH T

MACROECONOMICS: HYPOTHESES, HISTORICAL CONTEXTS AND ECONOMIC POLICIES

NGUYN XUN T Trng i hc Kinh t, i hc Nng

TM TT Hiu bit cc l thuyt kinh t v m, im mnh, yu v c bit l tnh thi im lch s ca chng. Vn dng hc thuyt no vo hon cnh kinh t x hi ca Vit Nam pht trin nn kinh t bn vng trong di hn, ch khng phi l "qu nng" trong ngn hn hoc lin tc trc trc trong di hn l nhim v rt quan trng ca cc nh nghin cu v hoch nh chnh sch kinh t v m. ABSTRACT This paper investigates a researchers job of planning macroeconomic policies to provide an understanding of macroeconomic theories with their strengths, weaknesses and, especially, their historical contexts. It also involves the application of appropriate theories to the socioeconomic context of Vietnam for long-term sustainable economic growth rather than short-term too-hot development or problematic development in the long run.

1. t vn Ngi dn, lnh o ca mt nc lun mong mun c s tng trng nhanh trong mc sng. C mt nguyn l n gin trong kinh t v m l: Mc sng ca mt t nc ph thuc vo kh nng sn xut ra cc hng ho v dch v ca nc . Kh nng sn xut thng c o bng ch tiu GDP. Vit Nam mun ui kp mc sng ca cc nc c thu nhp trung bnh ca th gii, trong mt khong thi gian ngn cn gia tng tc tng trng bnh qun ca GDP. C mt cch tnh n gin nh sau: Nu GDP tng trng bnh qun x%/nm th cn 70/x nm GDP nc tng ln gp i. V d: Nu tc tng GDP bnh qun Vit Nam l 7%/nm trong giai on (2000 2010) th cn 10 nm GDP Vit Nam tng gp i. Tc nm 2010 GDP gp i so vi nm 2000. Nu c chnh sch hp l m bo tc tng bnh qun cao, th trong vng 50 n 100 nm ti Vit Nam c th thu hp khong cch vi cc nc pht trin. Ngc li nu khng c chnh sch hp l lm cho tc tng trng kinh t nh hn cc nc pht trin, th khong cch ny s gia tng theo cp s nhn. tr thnh mt nc giu mt quc gia khng nht thit phi c tc tng trng cao m phi t c s pht trin bn vng trong di hn. Thu in l mt v d, t nm 1870 - 1970 GDP nc ny tng trng bnh qun 2,5%/nm nhng sau 100 nm Thu in l mt quc gia c GDP bnh qun u ngi thuc nhm cao nht th gii. So snh con ng ca Thu in vi con ng ca cc nc ng cho thy c v nh Thu in c bc i hp l hn v h t phi dng li hoc tht li sa sai. Vit Nam c th ui kp cc nc giu vi iu kin phi c s pht trin bn vng trong di hn, ch khng phi l s tng trng nhanh, qu nng trong ngn hn, hoc lin tc trc trc trong di hn. Cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t ca mt s nc Chu trong nhng nm (1996 1999) minh chng cho iu ny. Sau y chng ta tham kho s khc bit v tng trng trn th gii.

Tn nc

Thi k

GDP thc t bnh qun u ngi u k ($)

GDP thc t bnh qun u ngi cui k ($)

T l tng trng hng nm %

Nht Braxin Mhic c Canaa Trung Quc chentina M Innxia n Anh Pakixtan Bnglat

1890 - 1997 1900 - 1997 1900 - 1997 1870 - 1997 1870 - 1997 1900 - 1997 1900 - 1997 1870 - 1997 1900 - 1997 1900 - 1997 1870 - 1997 1900 - 1997 1900 - 1997

1169 619 922 1738 1890 570 1824 3188 708 537 3826 587 495

23400 6240 8120 21300 21860 3570 9950 28740 3450 1950 20520 1590 1050

2,82 2,41 2,27 1,99 1,95 1,91 1,76 1,75 1,65 1,34 1,33 1,03 0,78

Bng 1. GDP thc t tnh bng ng la M nm 1997 S liu bnh qun u ngi cho thy mc sng gia cc nc l rt khc nhau. Cch y 100 nm Nht khng phi l nc giu, GDP bnh qun u ngi ch cao hn Mhic nhng vi tc tng GDP bnh qun u ngi 2,82% mi nm vo nm 1997. GDP bnh qun u ngi ch thua M vo nm 1870, GDP bnh qun u ngi ca Anh gp hn hai ln ca Canaa nhng vi tc tng trng GDP bnh qun u ngi l 1,95% mi nm so vi 1,33% mi nm ca Anh sau 107 nm GDP bnh qun u ngi Canaa (mt quc gia vn trc y l thuc a ca Anh) vt c Anh. S liu cho thy nhng nc giu nht khng h c m bo s gi nguyn v tr y mi, cn cc nc ngho c mi chm trong cnh bn hn. V sao mt s nc tng trng nhanh, trong khi mt s khc li tt hu? c s pht trin bn vng trong di hn, cn c nhng chnh sch kinh t v m tt thng qua s hiu bit su sc cc l thuyt kinh t v m. Tuy nhin do nghin cu hot ng tng th ca nn kinh t rt phc tp cho nn cc nh kinh t thng a ra cc gi thuyt n gin ho hin thc, hn na mi hc thuyt kinh t ra i trong hon cnh kinh t x hi c th. Do nhng yu t ny nh hng rt ln n m hnh kinh t v m t nh hng rt ln n kt qu d bo ca m hnh. 2. T gi thuyt n m hnh kinh t v m C mt bi ton th v cp ph thng c s nh sau: C 5 con chim u trn cnh. Bc th sn bn mt pht sng. Hi trn cnh cn my con. Thng thng ngay c cc hc sinh cc cp hc cao hn thng tr li: Khng cn con no c. V chim nghe thy ting sng s v bay i ht. Thc ra y l cu tr li hi khin cng. Cu tr li cn my con ph thuc vo tp hp cc gi thuyt. V cu tr li cn my con ph thuc vo pht sng n chim c th nghe thy khng, hoc pht sng khng trng con no th saoNh vy cc gi thuyt s nh hng n m hnh v kt qu d on. Kinh t v m l mt mn khoa hc x

hi nn khng th em ton b nn kinh t thc nghim nh cc khoa hc t nhin. Cc nh kinh t thng phi bng lng vi vic thng qua nhng thng trm ca nn kinh t trong qu kh, thu thp cc s liu kinh t t a ra cc gi thuyt kinh t t cc gi thuyt ny xy dng nn cc m hnh kinh t v m. Da vo hot ng thc ca nn kinh t kim nghim m hnh. Nu kt qu d on tng thch vi cc s liu thc t v hot ng ca nn kinh t t c th suy ra m hnh phn nh chnh xc hot ng thc. Nu kt qu d on qu khc xa vi hot ng thc ca nn kinh t th chng t m hnh c vn cn phi thay i cc gi thuyt, xy dng nn nhng m hnh mi ph hp vi hin thc ca nn kinh t. V d: Mun tng GDP thc t (GDPTT) chng ta nn lm g? Theo l thuyt J.M.Kenyes chng ta nn dng cc chnh sch kch cu (tng chi tiu chnh ph, tng cung ng tin) lm gia tng tng cu qua lm gia tng GDP thc t v lm gim tht nghip. V m hnh kinh t da trn gi thuyt nn kinh t cha t mc ton dng (GDP tim nng -GDPTN ). V gi c trong nn kinh t rt chm iu chnh cho nn tng tng cu ch yu dn n tng GDP thc t, Nu gi c c nh th ton b gia tng tng cu ch yu dn n tng GDP thc t theo m hnh sau. P
AD0 AD1

GDPTN

E0

E1

(Y) Y0 Y1 GDPTT th Tng cu - Tng cung theo Keynes vi gi thuyt gi c c nh O Gi s nn kinh t ban u im cn bng E0 vi GDPTT mc Y0. mc sn lng ny thp hn mc sn lng ton dng GDPTN thng qua chnh sch kch cu chnh ph y ng AD0 sang AD1. im cn bng mi ca nn kinh t theo thi gian s chuyn sang E1 tng ng vi Y1 > Y0. Chnh sch kch cu chnh ph thnh cng v lm tng GDPTT v lm gim tht nghip. Nhng kt qu s khc nu theo m hnh kinh t v m c in. Nu chnh ph dng cc chnh sch kch cu th kt qu l ch lm tng lm pht v lm gim tnh cnh tranh ca hng ho nc trn th trng th gii v dn n thm ht cn cn thng mi. V m hnh kinh t v m c in da trn gi thuyt gi c v tin lng danh ngha hon P ton linh hot th trng ngay lp tc iu chnh vi nhng thay i t pha cu v cung cc th trng nht l th trng lao ng lun t mc cn bng. Do xt trn phng din ton ASLR b nn kinh t lun trang thi ton dng. PB EB PA EA ADB ADA O (Y) GDPTT

YTn

 th Tng cu - Tng cung theo trng phi c in vi gi thuyt gi c hon ton linh hot Gi s nn kinh t ang im cn bng EA vi ng Tng cu ADA. Tng cung l ASLR khi chnh ph kch cu ng ADA dch chuyn sang ADB gi tng dn t PA ln PB cn ti EA v EB GDP thc t khng thay i. Nh vy mun tng GDP thc t chnh ph phi dng nhng chnh sch tc ng nhm tng tng cung. Nu tng cung hng ho thp do cc chi ph sn xut (chi ph in, nc, li sut, gi thu t) qu cao th nh nc c th gim nhng yu t ny tng tng cung y mnh sn xut. Qua v d n gin trn ta c th nhn thc cn phi y mnh nghin cu v hiu bit su sc cc hc thuyt kinh t ni chung v kinh t Vit Nam ni ring. y khng phi l "xa x phm" trong tnh hnh kinh t Vit Nam hin nay. 3. Tnh thi im ca cc m hnh kinh t v m Mi hc thuyt kinh t (m t ngi ta xy dng nn m hnh) tng ng ra i trong nhng hon cnh kinh t x hi c th l thuyt Keynes ra i trong nhng nm 30 ca th k XX nhm l gii ti sao nn kinh t th trng cc nc t bn li c th lm vo cuc i khng hong kinh t (1929 - 1933) lm GDP thc t ca Anh, M vo nm 1933 khng nhng khng tng m cn gim i mt phn ba so vi nm 1928 trc khi n ra cuc i khng hong. Gi c nhiu nc trong giai on ny gim rt mnh (gim pht) v t l tht nghip thc t ln ti 25% lc lng lao ng. iu ny tri vi d on ca cc l thuyt kinh t v m c in ra i vo na cui th k XVIII. V trong thi k ny kinh t th trng t bn mi giai on pht trin ban u gi c rt nhy cm vi s bin ng ca cc yu t cung cu trn th trng lun m bo s cn bng ca cc th trng ring l cng nh ca ton b nn kinh t. Do thi im cha c cc doanh nghip ln hc c quyn, nh nc t bn t can thip vo th trng, cng on th cha c hoc rt t sc mnh. Tuy nhin nhng gi thuyt c bn ca trng phi c in bng cch ny hay cch khc vn c duy tr thm tr vi nhng lp lun ton hc rt cht ch ca trng phi kinh t v m c in mi. Mi hc thuyt ch "ng" trong mt hon cnh kinh t - x hi nht nh (th d: Nn s dng hc thuyt Keynes nu nn kinh t ang trng thi tng cung cao hn tng cu). Do vy cn c cc s liu trung thc, y nhm xc nh chnh xc nn kinh t ti mt thi im no ang trong trng thi no, bit nn s dng hc thuyt no p ng nhu cu ca x hi v kinh t. Do vy cc s liu lin quan n kinh t phi c thu thp v cng b thng xuyn. 4. Kt lun V mi mt m hnh c xy dng trn mt tp hp cc gi thuyt m trong thc t nn kinh t thng "khng p ng" y cc gi thuyt ny. Hoc trong thc t c nhiu vn kinh th c th m m hnh kinh t cha nm bt c. Tuy vy m hnh kinh t c th cho ta bit, mt chnh sch kinh t c tc ng nh th no ti cc bin s m chng ta quan tm,

vi mt tin cy no . Cc hc thuyt kinh t (m t ngi ta xy dng nn cc m hnh kinh t) khng bt di bt dch m lun lun cn c b sung, hon thin. Nu cc d bo kinh t khng ph hp vi cc s liu thc t, cn tm hiu ti sao? Bn thn hc thuyt c thiu st g khng hoc cc iu kin kinh t - x hi c ph hp cho vic p dng cc hc thuyt khng... Bng cch chng ta ngy cng hiu r hn cc hc thuyt kinh t , im mnh, im yu, v c bit trong tnh thi im (lch s) ca n. im quan trng hn thng qua qu trnh trn chng ta ngy cng c hiu bit su sc hn v cch thc vn hnh nn kinh t. l c s quan trng nht a ra cc chnh sch kinh t tt. Hiu bit cch thc vn hnh ca nn kinh t, vn dng hc thuyt no vo thc t kinh t - x hi Vit Nam, pht trin kinh t bn vng trong di hn l nhim v rt quan trng ca cc nh nghin cu v hoch nh chnh sch kinh t v m. TI LIU THAM KHO [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] Ansel M.Sharp Charles A.Register Paulw Grimes, Kinh t hc trong cc vn x hi, NXB Lao ng, H Ni, 2005. N.Gregory Mankiw, Nhng nguyn l ca kinh t hc, T. 2: Kinh t v m, NXB Lao ng X hi, H Ni, 2004. V Quang Vit, Thi bo Kinh t Si Gn, s 44- 2005. Lm Ngc, Kinh t 2005 2006, Thi bo Kinh t Vit Nam. Tp ch Tia sng, s 14, 20/10/2005.