Tiu lun Kinh t lng

GVHD: PGS.TS. Trng B Thanh

TI NGHIN CU:
Nghin cu s nh hng ca 3 yu t: Vn u t, dn s v c ch chnh sch
n tc tng trng kinh t tng trng GDP ti thnh ph Nng giai on 1976
- 2009.

HVTH: Ng Th Thu Trang

Nguyn Th Thy Vn

Trang:1

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

I.

GVHD: PGS.TS. Trng B Thanh

PHT BIU VN :
Trc ht, tng trng kinh t l iu kin quyt nh thc y s pht trin kinh t

ca quc gia, ca khu vc. Tt c cc nn kinh t bt buc t c v duy tr mc tng

trng nht nh mi m bo cho nn kinh t pht trin. Nht Babr trc y v Trung
Quc hin nay tr thnh cng quc kinh t nh t c tng trng kinh t nhanh. Vit
Nam c quy m GDP ch t 60 t USD nm 2006, *** t USD nm 2009, vi xut pht
im rt thp v kinh t nh vy th tng trng kinh t nhanh v duy tr c trong di hn
l vn c tnh cht quyt nh khng tt hu xa so vi cc nc trong khu vc v tin
kp h trong tng lai. Nu duy tr c tc tng trng t 7 8% nm nh hin nay th
sau 10 nm na quy m GDP s tng gp i theo quy tc 70.
Th hai, tng trng cho php gii quyt cc vn x hi. vi vic duy tr tc
tng trng kinh t cao, s gia tng khi lng GDP hay GNP to c s vt cht d chnh
ph ra v thc hin c cc chnh sch v chng trnh x hi hng ti mc tiu ci
thin i sng cho nhn dn, xa i gim ngho, pht trin y t, gio dc, pht trin nng
nghip nng thn, hn ch t nn x hi.
Th ba, tng trng bn vng s gp phn bo v mi trng. Vic khai thc v s
dng ngun ti nguyn thin nhin nh t ai, ngun nc, khong sn du m v s hnh
thnh pht trin cc khu cng nghip v th ha c thc hin 1 cch c kim sot hp l
v hiu qu khng ch gia tng quy m v duy tr s gia tng quy m theo thi gian m cn
gp phn bo v mi trng. Mt khc khi tng trng kinh t nhanh, to ra tin vt cht
bo v mi trng tt hn khi m cc ngun ti chnh c u t tm ra cng ngh
mi, cng ngh sch, ti sinh
Th t, tng trng l c s pht trin gio dc v khoa hc cng ngh. Trong qu trnh
tng trng, gio dc v cng ngh l yu t cc k quan trng thc y nhng tin vt
cht cho pht trin gio dc v khoa hc cng ngh da trn kt qu tng trng kinh t.

HVTH: Ng Th Thu Trang

Nguyn Th Thy Vn

Trang:2

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

GVHD: PGS.TS. Trng B Thanh

Vi nhng vn quan trng nh trn th tc tng trng kinh t lun l vn

quan tm hng u ca cc nh kinh t v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch.
Nng l thnh ph c tc pht trin nhanh kinh t x hi c nhiu chuyn bin tch
cc. Vi mong mun tm hiu v nhng yu t tc ng n ch tiu kinh t quan trng ny, nhm
chng ti chn ti sau: Nghin cu s tc ng ca cc nhn t u vo n tng trng
GDP ca thnh ph Nng giai on 1976 -2009.

II.

C S L THUYT

II.1 Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP):

Tng sn phm trong nc (GDP) l ton b gi tr ca cc hng ha v dch v cui cng
c sn xut ra trong phm vi lnh th quc gia, trong mt thi k nht nh (thng l 1 nm).
Nh vy, GDP l kt qu ca ton b hot ng kinh t din ra trn lnh th ca mt nc, n
khng phn bit kt qu thuc v ai v t do ai sn xut ra.

II.2 Tng trng kinh t:

Tng trng kinh t c hiu l s gia tng v quy m, sn lng ca nn kinh t
trong mt thi k nht nh, thng thng quy m sn lng u ra c phn nh qua quy
m GDP. Mc tng trng thng c phn nh bng chnh lch quy m GDP thc t
gia nm nghin cu v nm gc theo cng thc sau:
Mc tng trng = GDPt GDPt-1
V t l tng trng kinh t so vi nm gc bng:
GDPt GDPt-1

% tng trng =

GDPt-1

Khi nn kinh t tng trng quy m ca n ln hn, nhng liu quy m dn s ln, tc
tng dn s nhanh th cuc sng ca ngi dn khng khm kh hn. V vy, ch tiu trn
c m rng tnh trn u ngi, s gia tng v quy m v tc GDP tnh trn u ngi
s phn nh s tng trng kinh t chnh xc hn.
HVTH: Ng Th Thu Trang
Nguyn Th Thy Vn

Trang:3

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

GVHD: PGS.TS. Trng B Thanh

II.3 Cc nhn t quyt nh tng trng kinh t (Cc nhn t v pha cung):
Cho n nay c rt nhiu nghin cu thc nghim c cng b v lnh vc ny b
sung rt nhiu nhng kin thc v tng trng kinh t, qua cng xem xt vai tr ca cc
nhn t quan trng ti tng trng kinh t. Cc nhn t quan trng nht gm vn u t, lao
ng v cng ngh.
Cc doanh nghip trong nn kinh t s dng lao ng (N) v vn u t (K) ng vai
tr cc u vo sn xut hng ha v dch v (GDP).
Cng ngh sn xut hin c quyt nh mc sn lng c sn xut t mt khi
lng vn u t v lao ng nht nh. Cc nh kinh t biu th cng ngh hin c bng
cch s dng hm sn xut. Hm ny cho bit cc nhn t sn xut quyt nh mc sn
lng c sn xut nh th no. Nu k hiu Y l sn lng ca nn kinh t (GDP), khi
hm sn xut c vit:
Y = F(K, N)
Hm sn xut phn nh cng ngh hin c ngha cng ngh hin c n trong cch thc
hm ny chuyn t vn u t v lao ng thnh sn lng. Nu ai pht minh ra mt cch
thc tt hn sn xut ra hng ha th mc sn lng cao hn c sn xut vi cng mt
lng vn u t v lao ng.
Nh vy, cc nhn t sau s tc ng n tc tng GDP:
-

Vn u t K

Lao ng L (L ph thuc vo: Tc tng dn s (Sinh, cht, di dn); t l tham gia

ca lc lng lao ng).

-

Cng ngh (Hm F ph thuc vo s thay i cng ngh, c ch chnh sch).

II.4. M hnh tuyn tnh logarit:

Khi chng ta quan tm n tc tng trng ca bin ph thuc theo s thay i
tuyt i ca bin c lp, chng ta s dng m hnh bn loga.

HVTH: Ng Th Thu Trang

Nguyn Th Thy Vn

Trang:4

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

GVHD: PGS.TS. Trng B Thanh

Dng hm bn loga tng qut:

Ln (Y^) = 1 + 2 X2i + 3 X3i + + k Xki + ui
Bi v khi :

d(Ln(Y))
i =

=
d (Xk i)

1. d (Y)

(ly o hm 2 v theo Xk i)

Y d (Xk i)

Khi nhn vi 100, i c th c din dch l phn trm thay i ca Y trn mt n

v ca Xki hay cn gi l tc tng trng tc thi.
III.

THIT LP M HNH TNG QUT:

Qua l thuyt kinh t thc nghim c trnh by trn, nhm xc nh m hnh ton

hc ca mu nghin cu l m hnh tuyn tnh lgarit hay m hnh bn lga,c th nh sau:

Ln (Y^) = 1 + 2 X2i + 3 X3i + + k Xki + ui
Trong , Y l GDP, X2i l vn u t, X3i l dn s v mt bin gi X4i biu th sp
xp li c ch, chnh sch.
M hnh s nghin cu tc tng trng ca bin ph thuc Y theo s thay i tuyt i
ca bin c lp X2, X3 hay ni cch khc l s thay i mt n v ca bin c lp X2, X3 s
cho bit phn trm thay i ca Y cng nh so snh s tc ng ca bin sp xp li c ch,
chnh sch n tc tng trng ca bin ph thuc.

IV. NGUN D LIU V M T D LIU

Bng tn bin trong m hnh:
Stt
1
2
3

Tn bin
Y
X2
X3

Loi
Ph thuc
c lp
c lp

X4

Bin gi

HVTH: Ng Th Thu Trang

Nguyn Th Thy Vn

nh ngha
GDP
Vn u t
Dn s
Sp xp li c

n v o
T ng
T ng
Ngi
Trc nm 1987 l 0 v

ch,chnh sch

t nm1987 l 1

Ghi ch

Trang:5

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

GVHD: PGS.TS. Trng B Thanh

IV.1. Ngun s liu GDP Bin ph thuc Y:

n v tnh: T ng

Nm
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

GDP NNG GIAI ON 1976 2009 THEO GI C NH

Phn theo thnh phn kinh t
Phn theo ngnh
GDP (94)
Thu
Nh nc
NQD
FDI
N-L-TS CN-XD
DV
NK
325,265
67,019
207,225
51,021
68,008
107,817
149,440
405,006
88,430
246,955
69,621
89,502
147,192
168,312
492,376
128,656
287,599
76,121
96,271
170,648
225,457
571,425
161,143
330,140
80,142
99,587
198,365
273,473
646,738
189,842
372,984
83,912 111,024
221,671
314,043
737,248
214,563
437,344
85,341 120,133
252,335
364,780
797,333
226,109
484,213
87,011 128,602
262,748
405,983
846,156
243,244
516,698
86,214 134,074
270,573
441,509
915,939
261,544
563,783
87,612 142,892
281,573
488,473
971,111
272,438
609,531
89,142 152,715
304,665
513,713
1014,589
276,710
639,238
98,641 167,055
310,173
537,361
1062,103
283,275
672,694
106,134 170,349
326,755
564,999
1138,847
311,489
716,907
110,451 172,457
341,164
625,226
1202,103
330,981
759,068
112,054 175,818
352,109
674,176
1260,232
357,902
795,120
107,210 180,921
367,740
711,571
1334,186
383,314
843,536
107,336 191,124
392,916
750,146
1422,855
436,505
880,954
105,396 200,734
425,274
796,847
1560,819
474,751
933,883
21,163 131,021 212,115
463,890
884,814
1808,297
621,543
976,862
38,063 171,829 225,130
559,768 1023,399
2051,620
752,533
981,966 133,638 183,509 229,523
676,937 1145,160
2298,011
1036,396
895,572 160,821 205,222 244,946
760,944 1292,121
2589,842
1229,43
989,343 176,109 194,960 252,160
928,065 1408,786
2817,748
1487,770
915,011 185,146 229,821 260,725 1066,212 1490,811
3085,434
1622,870
979,619 247,745 235,200 269,058 1216,374 1600,002
3390,199
1847,831 1090,284 264,356 187,728 276,292 1367,944 1745,963
3803,941
2087,255 1216,112 295,093 206,481 293,944 1585,057 1925,940
4282,947
2404,786 1320,026 331,305 226,830 306,664 1877,393 2098,890
4823,427
2789,199 1400,653 384,941 248,634 323,593 2285,595 2214,239
5462,841
3306,231 1578,455 450,099 128,058 339,184 2798,311 2325,346
6219,483
3532,608 2073,963 503,974 108,938 355,466 3233,480 2630,537
6776,200
3848,818 2259,607 549,086 118,689 333,600 3248,400 3194,200
HVTH: Ng Th Thu Trang
Nguyn Th Thy Vn

Trang:6

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

2007
2008
2009

7670,540
8302,130
9236,000

GVHD: PGS.TS. Trng B Thanh

4356,795
4715,532
5023,475

2557,836
2768,447
2004,390

621,555
668,119
805,247

134,354
150,032
174,924

345,000
350,350
323,260

3610,000
3802,376
4267,032

3716,000
4149,404
4645,708

(Ngun Cc thng k thnh ph Nng)

IV.2. Ngun s liu vn u t Bin c lp (X2):
n v tnh: T ng

Nm
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002

Vn u t vo Nng giai on 1976-2009

Phn theo n v
Phn theo ngnh
Vn
Trong
Ngoi
u t
N-L-TS
CN-XD
DV
nc
nc
5,870
5,857
0,010
0,759
1,936
3,175
7,877
7,851
0,030
0,965
2,621
4,291
9,900
9,813
0,090
1,181
3,536
5,183
12,440
12,354
0,090
1,440
4,315
6,685
16,250
16,179
0,070
1,844
5,797
8,609
20,410
20,279
0,130
2,296
7,400
10,714
27,324
27,050
0,270
2,806
10,069
14,449
33,610
33,405
0,210
3,649
12,507
17,453
43,130
42,815
0,310
4,508
16,317
22,306
55,980
55,470
0,510
5,689
22,095
28,196
71,020
70,294
0,730
7,057
28,418
35,546
93,690
92,033
1,660
9,118
37,169
47,403
117,870
115,104
2,770
10,101
46,899
60,869
150,060
145,375
4,680
10,563
58,420
81,077
192,560
184,855
7,710
13,358
74,485
104,719
385,819
374,040
11,780
24,573
144,142
217,104
571,332
537,365
33,970
35,703
208,348
327,282
713,720
631,681
82,040
43,579
263,076
407,061
857,347
739,194
118,150
51,201
324,532
481,615
1057,540
809,104
248,440
57,816
380,376
619,348
1255,742
879,212
376,530
58,932
443,917
752,893
1624,500 1202,585
421,920
77,797
600,594
946,109
1872,700 1418,369
454,330
74,290
699,622 1098,788
2132,256 1925,334
206,920
79,618
762,409 1290,228
2359,100 2233,457
125,640
86,384
850,160 1422,556
2927,550 2643,014
284,540
39,440
898,952 1989,158
3750,070 3447,559
302,510
81,173 1169,257 2499,642

HVTH: Ng Th Thu Trang

Nguyn Th Thy Vn

Trang:7

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

GVHD: PGS.TS. Trng B Thanh

4670,557 4250,214
6443,750 5870,736
7365,600 6507,280
10073,987 9865,848
11100,000 9990,000
12771,000 9655,000
15300,000 11545,094

420,340
573,020
858,320
1108,140
1110,000
3116,075
3754,906

82,957
280,309
12,305
105,000
122,100
5956,100
6834,400

1084,792
1752,181
1189,605
1980,800
2331,000
2558,700
3004,563

3502,808
4411,261
6163,690
7988,187
8646,900
4256,000
5461,037

(Ngun Cc thng k thnh ph Nng)

IV.3. Ngun s liu dn s - Bin c lp (X3)
n v tnh: Ngi

Nm
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999

DN S NNG GIAI ON 1976 - 2009

Phn theo gii
Phn theo khu vc
Dn s
Nam
N
Thnh th
Nng thn
452881
215673
237208
309909
142972
452399
213980
238419
308085
144314
451905
213299
238606
306706
145199
451415
212616
238799
303805
147610
450932
211804
239128
298938
251994
456143
214707
241436
301876
154267
461409
217555
243854
306145
155264
466755
220402
246353
310349
156406
472140
223369
248771
314587
157553
477596
226283
251313
318398
159198
495490
235855
259635
331978
163512
513890
246158
267732
345287
168603
533026
257239
275787
358939
174087
552809
268018
284791
376466
176343
573509
278877
294632
392832
180677
586700
284785
301915
402594
184106
600400
292279
308121
411699
188701
614000
297790
316210
420283
193717
628180
305368
322812
430808
197273
642570
312456
330114
440136
203424
657600
319656
337944
519384
138216
672468
327021
345447
531330
141138
687934
334941
352993
543770
144164
702546
342243
360303
555392
147154

HVTH: Ng Th Thu Trang

Nguyn Th Thy Vn

Trang:8

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

GVHD: PGS.TS. Trng B Thanh

716282
728823
741215
752439
763297
790191
798551
816119
818300
887069

351013
354605
361444
361271
370615
384429
388816
397854
402300
437512

365269
374218
379771
391168
392682
405762
409735
418265
416000
449557

565440
575850
586954
597152
607488
627886
633251
649639
710800
770499

150842
152973
154261
155287
155809
162305
165300
166480
107500
116570

(Ngun Cc thng k thnh ph Nng)

IV.4. Tng hp s liu s dng trong m hnh
Nm
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

Y
GDP
325,265
405,006
492,376
571,425
646,738
737,248
797,333
846,156
915,939
971,111
1014,589
1062,103
1138,847
1202,103
1260,232
1334,186
1422,855
1560,819
1808,297
2051,620
2298,011
2589,842
2817,748
3085,434
3390,199

HVTH: Ng Th Thu Trang

Nguyn Th Thy Vn

Ln (Y)
5,784640
6,003902
6,199243
6,348133
6,471941
6,602924
6,681272
6,740704
6,819950
6,878441
6,922239
6,968006
7,037772
7,091828
7,139051
7,196077
7,260421
7,352966
7,500141
7,626385
7,739799
7,859352
7,943693
8,034448
8,128644

X2
Vn T
5,870
7,877
9,900
12,440
16,250
20,410
27,324
33,610
43,130
55,980
71,020
93,690
117,870
150,060
192,560
385,819
571,332
713,720
857,347
1057,540
1255,742
1624,500
1872,700
2132,256
2359,100

X3
Dn s
452881
452399
451905
451415
450932
456143
461409
466755
472140
477596
495490
513890
533026
552809
573509
586700
600400
614000
628180
642570
657600
672468
687934
702546
716282

X4
C ch, ch/sch
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Trang:9

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009

GVHD: PGS.TS. Trng B Thanh

3803,941
4282,947
4823,427
5462,841
6219,483
6776,200
7670,540
8302,130
9236,000

8,243793
8,362397
8,481240
8,605724
8,735442
8,821172
8,945142
9,024267
9,130864

2927,550
3750,070
4670,557
6443,750
7365,600
10073,987
11100,000
12771,000
15300,000

728823
741215
752439
763297
790191
798551
816119
818300
887069

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

(Ngun Cc thng k thnh ph Nng)

V.

C LNG M HNH V KIM NH GI THIT

V.1 c lng m hnh

34
88090,561
20866983
24

3,650559085
0,00016235
-7,73763E-06
1,001688638

88090.561
782873391,1
69360390428
87857,77

0,00016235
9,59611E-09
-353914E-10
4,24959E-05

254,682013
764308,5493

20866983
69360390428
1.34069E+13
16273408

-7,73763E-06
-3,53914E-10
1,68624E-11
-2,40048E-06

24
87857,77
16273408
24

1,001688638
4,24959E-05
-2,40048E-06
0,512077151

XX =

(XX)-1 =

XY =

160346820,7
190,150863

3,584429121

1,35804E-05
6,24431E-06
0,054801846

Vy m hnh c c lng l:
Ln (Y^) = 3,584429121 + 0,0000135804 X2 + 0,0000624431 X3 + 0,054801846 X4
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V.2 Cc tr s thng k
Thng k t:
YY = 1936,092

^.(XY) =
e2

^2 =
Cov(^)

3,584429121

1,35804E-05

6,2443E-06

0,0548018

1934,944833
RSS = (YY) - ^.(XY) = 1,147024
e2/n-k

= 0,038234137

= ^2 .(XX)-1
=

0,139575975
6,20731E-06
-2,95842E-07
0,0382987

6,2073E-06
3,669E-10
-1,3532E-11
1,6248E-06

-2,9584E-07
-1,3532E-11
6,4472E-13
-9,178E-08

0,0382987
1,62479E-06
-9,17802E-08
0,019578828

Var(1) = 0,139575975
Var(2) = 0,0000000003669
Var(3) = 0,00000000000064472
Var(4) = 0,019578828
Se(1) = 0,373598682
Se(2) = 0,00001915
Se(3) = 0,000000802945
Se(4) = 0,139924365
t 0,025 30 = 2,048
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| t 1|

= 9,594

| t 2|

= 0,709 < t 0,025 30

| t 3|

= 7,777

| t 4|

= 0,392 < t 0,025 30

Thng k R2, F:
RSS = 1,147
TSS = 28,359
ESS = 27,212
R2

= 0,959554286

= ((R2/(k-1))/((1- R2)/(n-k)) = 217,2727273

F 0.05(k-1, n-k)

Adjusted R2 = 0,9563476

= F 0.05(3, 30)

< F

H s D/W:
n

(e ^
d=

i =1

e^ i 1 )

e^
i =1

2
i

d = 0,279

V.3 Kim tra li bng SPS

Variables Entered/Removedb

Model
1

Variables

Variables

Entered

Removed

X4, X2, X3a

Method
. Enter

a. All requested variables entered.

b. Dependent Variable: LogaY

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Model Summary

Model

R
.980a

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate

R Square
.960

.956

.19554

a. Predictors: (Constant), X4, X2, X3

ANOVAb
Model
1

Sum of Squares
Regression
Residual
Total

df

Mean Square

27.212

9.071

1.147

30

.038

28.359

33

Sig.

237.237

.000a

a. Predictors: (Constant), X4, X2, X3

b. Dependent Variable: LogaY

Coefficientsa
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1

B
(Constant)

Std. Error
3.584

.374

X2

1.358E-5

.000

X3

6.244E-6

X4

.055

Coefficients
Beta

Sig.

9.594

.000

.060

.709

.484

.000

.908

7.777

.000

.140

.027

.392

.698

a. Dependent Variable: LogaY

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Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Variance Proportions

Dimensi
Model

on

Eigenvalue

Condition Index

(Constant)

X2

X3

X4

3.315

1.000

.00

.01

.00

.01

.522

2.521

.00

.20

.00

.00

.160

4.548

.01

.02

.00

.35

.003

34.621

.99

.77

1.00

.64

a. Dependent Variable: LogaY

Residuals Statisticsa
Minimum
Predicted Value

Maximum

Mean

Std. Deviation

6.4004

9.3861

7.4906

.90807

34

-.62780

.31100

.00000

.18644

34

Std. Predicted Value

-1.201

2.087

.000

1.000

34

Std. Residual

-3.211

1.590

.000

.953

34

Residual

a. Dependent Variable: LogaY

V.4 Kim nh cc iu kin vn dng m hnh

V.4.1 Cc iu kin v dng m hnh v iu kin v cc quan st
Biu din Ln(Y) ln lt theo X2, X3 ta c cc th phn tn (Scatterplot) sau:

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Nh vy, c th thy rng cc bin c lp c mi quan h tuyn tnh kh r vi bin

ph thuc, v hu nh khng c quan st gy ra s sai lch ln (hay cc quan st c cng vai
tr).

V.4.2 Kim tra phn phi ca d liu

D liu thu tp c cn phi kim tra xem c m bo phn phi chun hay khng
trc khi phn tch hi quy. y Nhm da vo h s Skewness kim nh:
Skewness

Z=

SQRT( / n)

S dng SPSS ta tnh c cc h s trn nh sau:

H s

Ln(Y)

X2

X3

|Z|=

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Qua bng trn ta thy, tt c gi tr tuyt i ca cc h s u nh hn 1,96. Vy,

phn phi l phn phi chun vi sai s l 5%.

V.4.3 Gi thit a cng tuyn

Xem xt r2 tng quan gia 2 bin X2v X3, ta c r2 nh hn h s tng quan R2
gia Ln(Y) v X2, X3, X4, ng thi cc tr s chp nhn (Tolerance) ca cc bin X2, X3,
X4 kh ln so vi 0, v vy chc chn khng c hin tng a cng tuyn xy ra.

V.4.4 Gi thit t tng quan

Vi k = 2, n = 30, mc ngha 5%, tra bng ta c d L = 1,255; d U = 1,560. Nh vy,
0 < d = 0.279 < d L = 1,255 Khng c hin tng t tng quan.

V.4.5 Gi thit phng sai khng ng nht

S dng hi quy ph (Da vo bin ph thuc):
ei 2 = 1 + 2 (Ln(Y))2
Ta c: ei 2 = 0,17848516 0,002634 (Ln(Y))2
c R2 = 0,190032 n R2 = 6,081024 > 2 (df) = 2 0,05 (1) = 3,84
Nh vy, m hnh tn ti hin tng phng sai khng ng nht.

V.5 Kim nh m hnh

V.5.1 Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh
t

H0 : R2 = 0
H1 : R2 0

Vi tiu chun kim nh F = 195,599 > F 0,05 (3, 30) = 8,63, H0 b bc b: R2 0.

Vy, m hnh c ngha.

V.5.2 Kim nh gi thit v i

H0 : i = 0
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H1 : i 0
| t 1|

= 9.594

| t 2|

= 0.709 < t 0,025 30

| t 3|

= 7.777

| t 4|

= 0.392 < t 0,025 30

t 2, t 4 < t 0,025 30 nn bin X2, X4 khng c ngha trong m hnh, c ngha l vn u

t v s thay i c ch, chnh sch khng nh hng n tc tng trng GDP ca
Nng.
M hnh c sa li: Ln(Y) = 1 + 3 X3i + ui
Thc hin c lng li ta c: Ln(Y) = 3,33086 + 0,00000678 X3
Adjusted R2 = 0,950644142, F = 598,0916

Tha mn tt c cc iu kin ca m hnh.

VI. DIN DCH KT QU V KT LUN

VI.1 Din dch kt qu
M hnh ban u:
Ln (Y^) = 3.584429121 + 0.0000135804 X2 + 0.0000624431 X3 + 0.054801846 X4

c lng li ta c:
Ln(Y) = 3,33086 + 0,00000678 X3

VI.2 Kt lun
Mi lin h gia tc thay i ca bin ph thuc - GDP v bin c lp vn u
t v dn s l mi lin h theo chiu thun tc l tc tng trng GDP ca thnh ph
Nng tng khi vn u t v dn s tng. iu ny ph hp vi phn l thuyt trnh
by.

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Tuy nhin qua kim nh trn th mc vn u t khng c ngha tc ng n s

tng trng GDP ca thnh ph. M hnh cng cho thy l bin gi c ch chnh sch thay
i tc ng khng nhiu n tc tng trng GDP.
T rt ra kt lun khi dn s ca thnh ph tng thm 1 ngi th ng gp vo tc
tng GDP l 0,000678%.
VII.

HN CH CA NGHIN CU V HNG M RNG

Do s lng quan st ca mu nh, trong c bit l nhng s liu m phn vn

u t chim t l cao trong GDP (ch t nm 1997 n nay) l nh so vi kch thc ca

mu nn lm cho nhn t vn u t khng c ngha trong m hnh ny.
S lng quan st nh cng gy nn kh khn trong vic nh gi s tc ng ca
nhn t c ch chnh sch. V nu so snh v quy m th r rng nm 1997 gp 2,4 ln so vi
nm 1987 v nm 2009 gp hn 9,42 ln so vi nm 1997. Tuy nhin nu xt v tc tng
trng th tc tng trng cao ch c thc s t nm 1993. iu ny nh hng ng
k n kt qu nghin cu.
VIII. LI CM N
Nhm chng ti mong nhn c kin gp ca thy c v cc bn bi tiu lun
ca nhm c hon thin hn. Xin chn thnh cm n!

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IX. TI LIU THAM KHO

1. Chng trnh ging dy Cao hc mn Kinh t lng, PGS.TS Trng B Thanh,
trng i hc Kinh t Nng.
2. Bi ging Kinh t lng, PGS.TS Nguyn Quang ng, NXB Thng k, 2003.
3. Nin gim thng k hng nm, Cc Thng k thnh ph Nng.
4. Gio trnh kinh t v m, TS. Bi Quang Bnh, khoa Kinh t, trng i hc Kinh t
Nng.
5. Gio trnh kinh t v m, trng i hc quc gia TPHCM.
6. Gio trnh dn s v pht trin, GS.TS Tng Vn ng, trng i hc Kinh t
quc dn, NXB Thng k.
7. Phng php v phng php lun nghin cu khoa hc Kinh t, PGS.TS Nguyn
Th Cnh i hc quc gia TPHCM, NXB i hc quc gia TPHCM.

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