NH GI TI NGUYN NC VIT NAM Nguyn Thanh Sn

NXB GIO DC 2005 T kho: Lu vc, sng ngi, o cc, tn sut, chun dng chy nm, mt dm, dao ng dng chy nm, phn phi dng chy nm, cng ti hn, vi phn, dng chy kit, ti nguyn nc, mi trng, pht trin bn vng, cc h thng sng Ti liu trong Th vin in t i hc Khoa hc T nhin c th c s dng cho mc ch hc tp v nghin cu c nhn. Nghim cm mi hnh thc sao chp, in n phc v cc mc ch khc nu khng c s chp thun ca nh xut bn v tc gi.

NGUYN THANH SN

NH GI TI NGUYN NC VIT NAM

NH XUT BN I HC QUC GIA H NI

Gio trnh nh gi ti nguyn nc Vit Nam dng ging dy cho sinh vin ngnh a l. Gio trnh cung cp cc khi nim, cc phng php thu thp v tnh ton v cc kin thc bo v, pht trin cc dng ti nguyn nc. Gio trnh c trnh by trong cc mi quan h tng hp ca mi trng a l t nhin. Gio trnh c th c dng lm ti liu tham kho cho cc chuyn gia trong lnh vc kho st, qui hoch v s dng ti nguyn nc. *** The book "Vietnam Natural resources estimation (land water resources)" is used as a textbook for students geographers. It provides the concepts, methods for collection and calculation and the knowledge on the protection of the water resources forms. These problems are presented in a closed relation with the geographical environment. The book is also used for the experts in investigation, design and water resources management as a referent matter.

MC LC
MC LC.............................................................................................................................................. 4 GII THIU.......................................................................................................................................... 4 Phn th nht. NH GI TI NGUYN NC........................................................................... 8 Chng 1. M U ............................................................................................................................. 9 1.1. Khi nim ti nguyn nc .......................................................................................................... 9 1.2. Nc trn Tri t v cc vn v ti nguyn nc............................................................... 10 1.3. nghi ca nghin cu ti nguyn nc ................................................................................... 18 1.4. nh hng ca iu kin a l t nhin ti ti nguyn nc lnh th ..................................... 18 1.4.1. V tr a l .......................................................................................................................... 18 1.4.2. a hnh v a mo ............................................................................................................ 19 1.4.3. Thm thc vt...................................................................................................................... 19 1.4.4. Kh hu ................................................................................................................................ 20 Chng 2.IU TRA V TNH TON TI NGUYN NC.................................................... 22 2.1.Thu thp thng tin t li trm kh tng thu vn quc gia ..................................................... 22 2.1.1. Phn loi trm thu vn....................................................................................................... 22 2.1.2. Phn cp trm thu vn ....................................................................................................... 22 2.2. o c cc c trng ti nguyn nc ....................................................................................... 23 2.2.1. o mc nc....................................................................................................................... 23 2.2.2. o su.................................................................................................................................. 27 2.2.3. o lu tc............................................................................................................................ 31 2.2.4. Lu lng nc................................................................................................................... 33 2.3. o c ti nguyn nc ma v nc ngm.............................................................................. 37 2.3.1. o ma............................................................................................................................... 37 2.3.2. Kho st ti nguyn nc ngm .......................................................................................... 37 Chng 3. CC PHNG PHP NH GI TI NGUYN NC LNH TH.................. 45 3.1. Phng php cn bng nc ..................................................................................................... 45 3.1.1. Phng trnh cn bng nc dng tng qut....................................................................... 45 3.1.2. Phng trnh cn bng nc cho mt lu vc sng ngi.................................................... 46 3.1.3. Phng trnh cn bng nc ca lu vc cho thi k nhiu nm ....................................... 46 3.1.4. Phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n dng chy sng ngi thng qua phng trnh cn bng nc ............................................................................................................................... 47 3.1.5. Phng trnh cn bng nc ao h, m ly ....................................................................... 48 3.2. Phng php tnh ton ti nguyn nc .................................................................................... 49 3.2.1. Phng php h s tng cng ............................................................................................. 49 3.2.2. Phng php bn v ni suy a l ................................................................................ 50 3.2.3. Phng php tng t thu vn .......................................................................................... 51 3.2.4. Cc phng php xc sut thng k.................................................................................... 51 3.3. Cc phng php tnh ton thu vn ......................................................................................... 51 3.3.1. Tnh ton ti nguyn nc ma........................................................................................... 51 3.3.2. Tnh ton chun dng chy nm.......................................................................................... 54 3.3.3. Tnh ton phn phi dng chy nm ................................................................................... 62 3.3.4. Cc cng thc tnh ton dng chy l ................................................................................. 67 3.3.5 Tnh ton ti nguyn nc ma cn ..................................................................................... 80 4

3.4 Phng php m hnh ho .......................................................................................................... 82 3.4.1 Phn loi m hnh ton thu vn.......................................................................................... 82 3.4.2 Phn loi m hnh dng chy ............................................................................................... 83 3.4.3 Mt s m hnh tt nh ....................................................................................................... 85 3.4.4 Nguyn l xy dng m hnh "quan nim" .......................................................................... 86 3.4.5. M hnh ngu nhin............................................................................................................. 94 Chng 4. NH GI CHT LNG NC ............................................................................ 100 4.1. Kin thc c s nh gi cht lng nc ......................................................................... 102 4.1.1 Nhng thng s vt l, ho hc, sinh hc ca cht lng nc......................................... 102 4.1.2. Nhu cu oxy sinh hc BOD............................................................................................... 103 4.1.3 COD, TOD, TOC ............................................................................................................... 104 4.2. Cht lng ti nguyn nc di nh hng cc hot ng kinh t....................................... 105 4.2.1.Cng nghip ....................................................................................................................... 105 4.2.2. Nc thi cng cng ......................................................................................................... 107 4.2.3 th ho ........................................................................................................................... 107 4.2.4. nh hng ca cc bin php ti tiu.............................................................................. 109 4.2.5 S thay i cht lng nc trong h cha ....................................................................... 110 4.3. Cc bin php bo v nc mt khi nhim bn ..................................................................... 111 4.3.1.Chun ho cht lng nc................................................................................................ 112 4.3.2. Cc phng php cng trnh bo v nc......................................................................... 113 4.3.3 X l nc thi trong iu kin nhn to........................................................................... 114 4.3.4 X l trong cc iu kin t nhin ..................................................................................... 115 4.3.5 Bin php cng trnh .......................................................................................................... 116 4.3.6 Qu trnh t lm sch ca nc t nhin........................................................................... 116 Phn th hai. TI NGUYN NC VIT NAM ......................................................................... 118 Chng 5. TI NGUYN NC MT VIT NAM................................................................ 119 5.1. Khi qut chung ....................................................................................................................... 119 5.2. Ti nguyn nc ma............................................................................................................... 119 5.3. Ti nguyn nc sng ngi ..................................................................................................... 121 5.3.1. Dng chy mt .................................................................................................................. 128 5.3.2. Cht lng nc mt......................................................................................................... 133 Chng 6. CC H THNG SNG CHNH VIT NAM ...................................................... 137 6.1. H thng sng K Cng - Bng Giang..................................................................................... 137 6.1.1. Khi qut v cc iu kin mt m.................................................................................. 137 6.1.2. Khi qut v cc iu kin kh hu.................................................................................... 137 6.1.3. Cc sng chnh v ti nguyn nc sng .......................................................................... 138 6.2. H thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh ............................................................................................. 139 6.2.1. Khi qut v mt m........................................................................................................ 140 6.2.2. Khi qut v kh hu.......................................................................................................... 140 6.2.3. Cc sng chnh v ti nguyn nc sng ......................................................................... 141 6.3. H thng sng M, sng C v cc sng vng Bnh Tr Thin ................................................ 144 6.3.1. Cc iu kin mt m ...................................................................................................... 144 6.3.2. Khi qut v kh hu.......................................................................................................... 144 6.3.3. Cc sng chnh v ti nguyn nc sng .......................................................................... 146 6.4. Cc lu vc Nam Trung B...................................................................................................... 148 6.4.1. Khi qut iu kin mt m............................................................................................. 148 5

6.4.2. Khi qut v kh hu.......................................................................................................... 148 6.4.3. Cc sng chnh v ti nguyn nc khu vc..................................................................... 150 6.5. H thng sng ng Nai.......................................................................................................... 151 6.5.1. Khi qut v cc iu kin mt m.................................................................................. 151 6.5.2. Khi qut v kh hu.......................................................................................................... 152 6.5.3. Cc sng chnh v ti nguyn nc sng .......................................................................... 152 6.6 H thng sng M Kng............................................................................................................ 154 6.6.1 Khi qut cc iu kin mt m ....................................................................................... 155 6.6.2. Cc iu kin kh hu ........................................................................................................ 156 6.6.3. Ti nguyn nc sng v cc sng chnh.......................................................................... 157 TI LIU THAM KHO ................................................................................................................ 159 Ting Vit.................................................................................................................................... 159 Ting Anh.................................................................................................................................... 159 Ting Nga.................................................................................................................................... 160

GII THIU
Gio trnh nh gi ti nguyn nc Vit Nam c bin son ti Khoa a l, trng i hc Khoa hc T nhin, i hc Quc gia H ni nhm p ng ti liu hc tp cho sinh vin nm th t ngnh a l. Gio trnh cung cp cho sinh vin cc khi nim v ti nguyn nc lc a, cc phng php thu thp s liu khng nhng qua mng li cc trm kh tng thu vn quc gia m c trn cc chuyn thc a, cc kin thc c bn nht x l v phn tch ti liu a ra c cc kt qu nh ga ti nguyn nc c v lng ln v cht. Trong gio trnh s dng nhiu kt qu nghin cu v cc ti liu ca B mn thu vn, Khoa Kh tng thu vn & Hi dng hc, trng i hc Khoa hc T nhin, i hc Quc gia H ni v cp nht cc nghin cu gn y nht ca trng i hc Thu li H Ni v Vin Kh tng thu vn, B Ti nguyn Mi trng Khi bin son cun sch ny tc gi c s b sung v gp rt quan trng ca nhiu ng nghip nng cao cht lng gio trnh. Chc chn gio trnh ny vn cn nhiu khim khuyt. Rt mong tip tc nhn c cc kin ng gp cun sch ny ngy cng hon thin thm. Tc gi xin trn trng cm n.

Phn th nht NH GI TI NGUYN NC

Chng 1 M U
1.1. KHI NIM TI NGUYN NC Nc l mt loi ti nguyn qu gi v c coi l vnh cu. Khng c nc th khng c s sng trn hnh tinh ca chng ta. Nc l ng lc ch yu chi phi mi hot ng dn sinh kinh t ca con ngi. Nc c s dng rng ri trong sn xut nng nghip, cng nghip, thu in, giao thng vn ti, chn nui thu sn v.v.. Do tnh cht quan trng ca nc nh vy nn UNESCO ly ngy 23/III lm ngy nc th gii. Ti nguyn nc l lng nc trong sng, ao h, m ly, bin v i dng v trong kh quyn, sinh quyn. Trong Lut Ti nguyn nc ca nc Cng ho x hi ch ngha Vit Nam quy nh: " Ti nguyn nc bao gm cc ngun nc mt, nc ma, nc di t, nc bin thuc lnh th nc Cng ho x hi ch ngha Vit Nam ". Nc c hai thuc tnh c bn l gy li v gy hi. Nc l ngun ng lc cho mi hot ng kinh t ca con ngi, song n cng gy ra nhng him ho to ln khng lng trc c i vi con ngi. Nhng trn l ln c th gy thit hi v ngi v ca thm ch ti mc c th ph hu c mt vng sinh thi. Ti nguyn nc l mt thnh phn gn vi mc pht trin ca x hi loi ngi tc l cng vi s pht trin ca khoa hc cng ngh m ti nguyn nc ngy cng c b sung trong ngn qu nc cc quc gia. Thi k nguyn thu, ti nguyn nc ch b hp cc khe sui, khi con ngi cha c kh nng khai thc sng, h v cc thu vc khc. Ch khi k thut khoan pht trin th nc ngm tng su mi tr thnh ti nguyn nc. V ngy nay vi cc cng ngh sinh ho hc tin tin th vic to ra nc ngt t nc bin cng khng thnh vn ln. Tng lai cc khi bng trn cc ni cao v cc vng cc cng nm trong tm khai thc ca con ngi v n l mt ngun ti nguyn nc tim nng ln. Tuy mang c tnh vnh cu nhng tr lng hng nm khng phi l v tn, tc l sc ti to ca dng chy cng nm trong mt gii hn no khng ph thuc vo mong mun ca con ngi. Ti nguyn nc c nh gi bi ba c trng c bn l lng, cht lng v ng thi ca n. Lng l c trng biu th mc phong ph ca ti nguyn nc trn mt lnh th. Cht lng nc l cc c trng v hm lng cc cht ho tan trong nc phc v yu cu dng nc c th v mc li v hi theo tiu chun i tng s dng nc. ng thi ca nc c nh gi bi s thay i ca cc c trng nc theo thi gian 9

v khng gian. nh gi ti nguyn nc l nhm mc ch lm r cc c trng nu i vi tng n v lnh th c th. Bit r cc c trng ti nguyn nc s cho chng ta phng hng c th trong vic s dng, qui hoch khai thc v bo v n. 1.2. NC TRN TRI T V CC VN V TI NGUYN NC Trn hnh tinh chng ta nc tn ti di nhiu dng khc nhau: trn mt t, trong bin v i dng, di t v trong khng kh di cc dng: lng (nc sng sui, ao h, bin), kh (hi nc) v rn (bng, tuyt). Lng nc trong thu quyn theo UNESCO cng b c phn b nh sau: Lng nc trong thu quyn Nc ngt Nc mn 1386 .106km3 35.10 km
6 6 3 3

100% 2,5% 97,5%

1351. 10 km

Trong thnh phn nc ngt th dng rn chim 24,3. 106km3 (69,4%), dng lng l 10,7. 106km3 (30,6%). Trong thnh phn nc lng 10,7. 106km3 (100%) th nc ngm chim i b phn 10,5. 106km3 (98,3%); h v h cha l 0,102 .106km3 (0,95%); th nhng 0,047.106km3 (0,44%) ; sng ngi 0,020.106km3 (0,19%) ; kh quyn 0,020.106km3 (0,19%) v sinh quyn 0,011.106km3 (0,10%). S phn b ca lng nc trn Tri t khng u theo cc i dng, bin v cc lc a (Bng 1.1). Da vo bng 1.1 ta thy nc trn Tri t vo hai i dng ch yu l i Ty Dng v Thi Bnh Dng, phn cn li i vo cc vng khng tip gip vi i dng v vi bin. Ngun nc Bc M v Nam M l ln nht trn Tri t ny. Cc thnh phn ch yu ca cn cn nc th hin qua ma, bc hi v dng chy. Thng qua cc i lng ny nh gi ti nguyn nc lnh th. Nghin cu cc qu trnh trn theo khng gian v thi gian s th hin c bc tranh y v ti nguyn nc. Mt vn quan trng v rt c quan tm hin nay khi nh gi ti nguyn nc l vn cht lng nc. l mt yu t c mt vai tr ht sc quyt nh i vi s tn ti ca s sng con ngi. Theo mc pht trin ca mnh, nhn loi tip nhn nc ngy cng ln tho mn cc nhu cu a dng nht: cp nc sinh hot, cng nghip, to ra in nng, ti tiu t ai, giao thng, ng nghip v.v.. Khng c lnh vc no ca kinh t quc dn m khng s dng nc. So snh s tng trng ca dn s, s pht trin ca mt s lnh vc cng nghip v s tng nhu cu dng nc trong nn kinh t quc dn ca cc nc pht trin trn th gii t nm 1960 n nm 1980 tng nhu cu dng nc tng gp hai ln. Hin nay i vi ton cu nhng vn ch yu l vn m bo cho nhn loi nc sch bi v ti nguyn nc ngt hin c trong nhiu vng tr nn thiu i vi vic tho mn nhu cu ca dn c ang pht trin nhanh, cng nghip v kinh t nng nghip ang pht trin t. i vi vic s dng hp l ti nguyn nc, nht thit trc ht phi bit lng nc no i hi tho mn mi nhu cu dng nc khng ch hm nay m cn c trong tng lai. 10

Cc nh dng nc ly nc trc tip t ngun, s dng to ra cc sn phm cng nghip v nng nghip hoc cc nhu cu cng cng ca c dn, sau hon tr vo i tng nc, nhng ni khc, vi s lng v cht lng khc i. Cc nh dng nc khng trc tip ly nc t ngun m s dng chng nh l mi trng (giao thng thu, ngh c, th thao ...) hay nh l ngun nng lng (trm thu nng). Tuy nhin h c th lm thay i cht lng nc (v d nh giao thng thu). Cn phi lu rng, vi t hp s dng ti nguyn nc hin nay, ranh gii gia cc nh dng nc v cc nh s dng nc b xa sch. Th d, khi thnh lp cc h cha ln to ra in nng, khng ch ch thu vn v cht lng nc thay i trit m cn din ra s giatng tn tht nc do bc hi, tc l chnh h cha ng vai l nh dng nc. S dng nc ph thuc vo mc ch c th phn thnh nc ung, cng cng, nng nghip, cng nghip, giao thng v.v.. Nt c trng ca na cui th k XX l mi nhu cu dng nc tng ln trong tt c cc nc trn th gii. Trong bng 1.3 trnh by phn s dng nc trong cc lnh vc s dng nc chnh theo quan h vi dng nc tng cng trong cc nc. Xem xt chi tit hn cc dng s dng nc cc quc gia tin tin ta thy:
Nhm nh s dng Nng nghip Cng nghip Cng cng Lin X 52 39 9 M 49 41 10 Php 51 37 12 Phn Lan 10 80 10

Cung cp nc cho c dn lin quan ti vic s dng nc ung v cc nhu cu cng cng. Nhu cu cng cng bao gm h thng cp nc tp trung m bo cng vic bnh thng ca cc x nghip phc v cng cng, ra ng ph, ti cy xanh, chng chy v v.v.. Tng th tch nc s dng cho nhu cu dn c c xc nh bng nhu cu dng nc ring v dn s. Nhu cu dng nc ring c tnh nh l th tch nc ngy m bng lt chi cho mt u ngi thnh ph hay lng qu. Gi tr nhu cu dng nc ring thay i trong mt phm vi kh rng: t 200 - 600 l/ ngy m cho 1 ngi trong thnh ph n 100 - 200 l/ ngy m cho 1 ngi nng thn, v khi thiu ng dn nc ch c 30 -50 l/ngy m cho 1 ngi. Nhu cu dng nc ring trong thnh ph ph thuc vo mc c s vt cht (s hin din ca ng nc, knh dn, cp nc nng tp trung v.v..) tng ng vi cc tiu chun thc t. Trong cc thnh ph c c s vt cht ln trn tri t hin nay nhu cu dng nc ring l: Moscova v Niu Yok - 600 l/ ngy m cho 1 ngi, Pari v Leningrad - 500, London - 263 l/ ngy m cho 1 ngi (Belitrenco, Svexov, 1986). S tng trng lin tc nhu cu dng nc lin quan ti s tng dn s trn tri t cng nh s tng trng c s vt cht cc thnh ph v lng mc. Vy nn, nu nh t nm 1900 n nm 1950 nhu cu dng nc tng ba ln th t 1950 n 2000 tng khong by ln. Nhu cu dng nc tng cng v tng th trn a cu vo nm 1970 l 120 km3 nc. Nhu cu ca cng nghip v nc dao ng trong mt phm vi rng v ph thuc khng ch vo lnh vc m cn ph thuc vo cng ngh s dng ca qu trnh sn xut, vo h thng cung cp nc ( thi thng hay quay vng), vo cc iu kin kh hu v.v.. Vi h thng cp nc cho x nghip ti im, nc t ngun rt thng vo cc i tng ring bit ca t hp sn xut, s dng trong qu trnh sn xut sn phm sau theo cc knh dn vo ni x l nc sch, cui cng thi vo sng sui hoc thu vc mt khong 11

cch ph hp cch ni tch nc. Vi h thng cp nc ti im, mt i mt lng nc ln tuy nhin nhu cu dng nc khng hon li nh. Vi h thng cp nc quay vng, nc s dng sau khi lm sch, khng thi ra thu vc m dng li nhiu ln trong qu trnh sn xut, duy tr s ti sinh sau mi chu k sn xut. Lu lng nc vi h thng cp nc ny khng ln v c xc nh bng lu lng cn thit b sung nhu cu dng nc khng hon li trong qu trnh sn xut v ti sinh cng nh thay th c chu k nc trong chu k quay vng. Th d, nu trm nhit cng sut 1 triu kW vi cp nc ti im hng nm yu cu 1,5 km3 nc th vi h thng cp nc quay vng ch cn 0,12 km3, tc l gim i 13 ln. Mi ph thuc ca th tch nhu cu dng nc cng nghip vo cc iu kin kh hu nh sau: hin nhin, cc x nghip cng trong mt lnh vc phn b vng pha bc i hi nc t hn nhiu so vi cc x nghip phn b vng pha nam vi nhit khng kh cao. Tuy nhin, nh s dng nc chnh trong cng nghip l nhit in, i hi mt lng nc ln lm ngui my. p ng nhu cu dng nc ca trm in nguyn t cn ln hn nhiu ( khong 1,5 - 2 ln ln hn so vi nhit in). Th k XX c trng bi s tng trng chng mt ca vic s dng nc. Vy nn, nu nh nm 1900 trn ton th gii cho nhu cu cng nghip ngi ta s dng 30 km3 nc, th vo nm 1950 l 190 km3 nc, vo nm 1970 - 510 km3 nc cn vo nm 2000 - 1900 km3 nc! iu ny c gii thch bi tc pht trin nhanh ca sn xut cng nghip ca tt c cc nc cng nh xut hin cc sn xut mi c bit yu cu v nc ln, nh cng nghip sn xut giy v ho du, nhit in, chim khong 80 - 90% ton b nc cng nghip. Tuy nhin, phn nhu cu dng nc khng hon li trong cng nghip khng ln v chim 5 - 10% tng th tch nc, cn trong nhit in cn nh hn - 0,5 - 2%. Nhu cu dng nc nng nghip hin nay lin quan trc ht vi s tng din tch t ti. S pht trin ca n c ch nh bi tnh cn thit m bo cho nhn loi sn phm nui dng.. Mc d hin nay ti khng nhiu - hn 15% din tch mi loi t canh tc nng nghip, phn sn phm nng nghip t t c ti chim hn 50% cc sn phm v biu th gi tr. Trong cc iu kin tc pht trin dn s nhanh v s thiu ht trm trng ngun dinh dng m hn 2/3 c dn trn tri t phi chu ng, vic ti gnh mt vai tr to ln trong vic nng cao tnh hiu qu ca t. Din tch t ti trn th gii khng ngng tng ln, nu nh vo du th k XX n khong 40 triu ha, th n nm 1970 t ti 235 triu ha, tc l tng 6 ln, v s d bo cho nm 2000 l 420 triu ha. Nhu cu dng nc ring v lng nc hon li ph thuc vo cc iu kin a l t nhin ca vng, thnh phn cy trng nng nghip, trng thi k thut ca h thng ti v phng php ti ang s dng. Lng nc hon li biu hin bng % khi tch nc. Tn tht nc khng hon li khi ti (do bc hi) t mt gi tr ln. Theo s liu ca cc tc gi khc nhau, n dao ng t 20 n 60% lng nc dng. Nhu cu dng nc tng cng ca kinh t nng nghip trn th gii tng thng xuyn: vo u th k n chim 350 km3/ nm, vo nm 1970 - 1900 km3/ nm v n nm 2000 s l 3400 km3/ nm. Cc dng chnh ca hot ng kinh t gy nh hng ln nht n s thay i s lng v cht lng ti nguyn nc l: nhu cu dng nc cho cng nghip v nhu cu cng cng, nc thi, chuyn dng chy, th ho, thnh lp h cha, ti v lm ngp t kh, tiu, cc 12

bin php nng lm nghip v v.v.. Khi trn mi on tr nc ng thi c th tc ng nu khng phi l tt c th cng s nhiu trong cc nhn t k trn. Lin quan ti iu , khi k hoch ho kinh t nc v iu tit cht lng nc cn thit phi tnh n nh hng ca tng nhn t trong s mt cch ring bit v gp li cng mt lc. Khi xem xt mi nhn t ng chm ti hai vn : thay i ch thu vn v th tch dng chy cng vi s thay i cht lng ti nguyn nc, Do cc tc ng nhn sinh gy ra s nhim bn nc t nhin, tc l thay i thnh phn v tnh cht ca n, dn ti vic lm ti cht lng nc i vi vic s dng nc. Nguy him nht i vi nc t nhin v cc c th sng l nhim x. Nc b nhim bn c th tr nn bt li i vi ngi s dng nc nht nh, Th nn, ti sao khi nh gi nh hng ca cc hot ng kinh t ln ti nguyn nc cn phi tnh n khng ch s thay i s lng ca n m cn c cht lng.

13

Hnh 1.1 Mt dng chy sng ngi ca th gii tnh theo u ngi m3/nm nghn ngi (theo ti liu ca Lvovich)

14

Hnh 1.2. Chu trnh tun hon ca nc trong 1 nm

Bng 1.1. Phn b ngun nc trn th gii (theo Lvovich)

Vng phn b Lc a (hay vng)

Sn i Ty Dng F.103 Dng chy mm 297 16700 300 218 444 988 11130 14 66 17 13250 355 475 1340 15600 14400 274 485 4960 5470 13630 1710 109 9680 42300 29850 17928 km mm mm
3

Sn Thi Bnh Dng F.103 Dng chy km

3

Vng lu vc ni a F.103 Dng chy km

3

Tng din tch ca t F.103 Dng chy mm 262 170 203 450

km

Chu u k c Ailen
Chu k c Nht, Philippin Chu c k c Tasmania v Newzeland Nam M

1970

Bc M

835 160

11

20195

314

Bng o Canaa v cc qun o bin 3880 180 2620 Malayan v cc qun o

3880 2620

180 160

Tng hoc bnh qun 64070 314

35320

393

32033

21

31423

250

16

Bng 1.2 .Cn cn nc v lnh th v lu vc sng theo ti liu

TT ton phn km3 mm 1957 H thng sng 2

Cu Long

Lnh th ngm km3 mm 704 99,3 270 316 983 0,50 mm mm 232 km3 km3 DC s

Lng ma

Dng chy

Dng chy mt

Dng chy

Bc hi

km3 mm 974 331

Vit Nam

647

134 142 76,6 33,9 30,9 1756 14,7 836 10,3 1912 19,8 1117 14,9 838 585 2052 30,4 814 19,8 529 10,7 4,95 4,41 1925 69,7 1137 48,8 796 26,9 341 285 279 251

1919

54,4

779

38,1

545

16,3

234

72,6 48,3 46,2 14,1 16,2

1140 788 1238 795 920

0,37 0,58 0,40 0,58 0,43

3
Hng

4
ng Nai

5
C

6
M

7
Ba

22,4

1625

9,39

680

7,99

578

1,41

102

13,0

945

0,42

8
Thi Bnh

20,0

1577

9,19

725

7,35

680

1,84

145

11,0

852

0,46

9
K Cng,

15,5

1422

7,19

660

5,39

495

1,80

165

8,30

762

0,50

10
Thu Bn

29,0

27,6

20,0

1915

14,0

1341

6,00

575

8,90

848

0,66

17

1.3. NGHA CA NGHIN CU TI NGUYN NC - Nc c ngha quan trng i vi cc qu trnh xy ra trn b mt Tri t. C th ni rng khng c nc th khng c g ht, nc tham gia vo mi qu trnh xy ra trn mt Tri t. - Nc tham gia vo qu trnh a mo, a ho. Nc lm ra tri b mt Tri t, to thnh cc khe sui, sng ngi, ng bng bi tch c ph nhiu ln v lm tr tri cc vng i ni c ph nhiu km. - Nc tham gia vo vic to ra cc tng nc ngm nm su trong lng Tri t v to nn nhng hang ng k diu trong lng t , nht l vng ni vi. nc ta c cc hang ng p tuyt vi nh ng Phong Nha Qung Bnh, Tam Thanh, Nh Thanh x Lng u gn lin vi s tc ng ca nc. - Nc trong kh quyn c xem nh lp o gip bo v qu t ca chng ta khi b gi lnh trong nhng thi k bc x mt tri gim i. Nc trong kh quyn cn m bo ti cho b mt lc a v lm cho kh hu trn qu t iu ho hn. - i vi mi qu trnh sinh hc xy ra trn b mt Tri t nc li cng c ngha c bit. Trong qu trnh sn xut lu i cha ng ta c cu: "Nht nc, nh phn, tam cn, t ging", cho ta thy vai tr to ln ca nc. Nc c tc dng ho tan cht dinh dng, mui khong trong t lm cho cy c th ht c ng thi lm cho cy vn chuyn cht dinh dng nui cy, nc tham gia vo qu trnh quang hp ca cy. Khng c nc cy s b cht. Trong qu trnh pht trin ca mnh cy cn mt lng nc ng k. Lng nc ny ph thuc vo cc loi cy. Theo kt qu nghin cu ca Vin khoa hc thu li, trng i hc Nng nghip I, ta bit lng nc cn dng cho mt v l rt ln i vi cc loi cy. i vi cy la u = 4000- 6500 m3/ha, cy ng u = 1900- 2300 m3/ha, khoai lang u = 1200- 1500 m3/ha, bp ci u = 3000- 4500 m3/ha. Theo kt qu nghin cu ca Suicho Ysia nm 1981 Vin nghin cu la th gii (IRRI - Philippin) bnh qun mi thng la cn dng lng nc 200m3/h. Ta bit to thnh mt gam cht kh ca cc loi cy khc nhau cng cn mt lng nc khc nhau rt ln. La m cn 410g nc cho mt gam la m kh, tiu mch 380 gam nc cho mt gam tiu mch kh. Ngy nay i vi nn kinh t quc dn nc tr thnh mt vn thi s. Yu cu ca nn cng nghip pht trin mnh i hi v nc c v lng v v cht cng rt ln: i vi cng nghip nng yu cu v nc li tng ln gp bi: sn xut 1 tn gang cn 10-25 m3 nc. sn xut ra mt lng in 1,92.106 kw nh my thy in Ho Bnh cn c mt lng nc trong h l 9,54 t m3 nc. Ngoi ra trong s pht trin nn vn minh ca loi ngi nc ng mt vai tr ht sc ln. Khng phi ngu nhin m cc nn vn minh ln trn th gii u gn lin vi cc cc con sng ln: Ai Cp- sng Nin, n - sng Hng, Trung Quc - sng Trng Giang, Dng T, Vit Nam- sng Hng. 1.4. NH HNG CA IU KIN A L T NHIN TI TI NGUYN NC LNH TH 1.4.1. V tr a l nh hng ny c th hin v tr a l ca lu vc cch xa i dng v bin l ni cung cp ngun hi m cho khng kh v vng ta xt thuc vng no, i no trn lc a. Ni chung cng xa i dng v bin th lng ma cng gim dn. Vng su trong lc a nh sa mc Sahara lng ma rt b.

18

 vng nhit i, tnh cht ma khc hn vng n i. Ma vng nhit i phn ln l ma ro, c cng ln, din bin phc tp khng theo quy lut r rt. Ma vng n i c quy lut hn. nc ta ma t Bc vo Nam cng mang tnh cht khc nhau. Min Bc v Trung ch ma phc tp, khng c quy lut r rng nh Nam b. Ma Nam B, ng Thp Mi c quy lut hn.
Bng 1.3. nh hng ca cao n lng ma Sn Trm o ma Lo Cai Than Uyn Sapa Hong Lin Sn Lai Chu Bnh L Cam ng Snh H cao trm (m) Sn ng Bc 99 556 1570 2170 Sn Ty Nam 244 636 900 1529 2066,1 2305,4 2621,7 2783,2 60 120 56 26 1774 2066,9 2833,0 3552,4 63 88 75 120 Lng ma bnh qun X(mm) Graien ma (mm/100m)

1.4.2. a hnh v a mo nh hng ca a hnh n ma: nh hng ny c th hin qua hng ca a hnh, cao ca a hnh v dc. sn ni c hng n gi mang hi m t bin vo th c ma ln. V d vo u ma h gi ma Ty Nam thi t vnh Bengan vo pha Ty Trng Sn gy ma ln Lo. Ngc li ng Trng Sn t Thanh Ho n Bnh Tr Thin c gi Lo kh nng v ma nh. iu ng ch l s chnh lch lng ma pha hng n gi v khut gi cng ph thuc vo cp ca cao a hnh. Cng ln cao chnh lch cng gim. V d: Ba V st chn ni chnh lch 250mm nhng ln cao ch cn 100mm. cao nh hng n ma ch cng ln cao ma cng tng. Tuy vy khi tng n mt cao no th lng ma khng tng na v hi m ca khi khng kh do my mang i gim i. V d Ba V s bin thin ca lng ma nm theo cao l 60mm/100mm, Tam o cao hn Ba V, bin thin ca lng ma nm l 127mm/100mm. V nh hng ca cao a hnh n ma theo kt qu nghin cu ca N.X.Nexterov trong nhng vng kh hu khc nhau th cng khc nhau. Vit Nam, Nguyn Vn Tun cng cho kt qu nghin cu tng t (Bng 1.3) dc trong qu trnh thu vn th hin vo qu trnh tp trung nc. a hnh cng dc, s tp trung nc cng nhanh, kt hp vi ma ln l iu kin thun li cho vic hnh thnh l lt v l qut. 1.4.3. Thm thc vt nh hng ca rng n ma biu hin ch rng lm tng nhm b mt lu vc, cn tr chuyn ng ca lung khng kh theo hng nm ngang, lm cho khi khng kh chuyn ng chm li v c chiu hng i ln gy nn hin tng ngng t v gy ma. Mt khc rng lm tng m cho lu vc, c li cho sinh dng chy. Nhng mt khc na l rng gi nc ma li trong cc tn l rng, lm cho nc ma khng ri ti mt t. Nh vy ch tn l rng lng ma ri xung mt t t hn so vi ni khng c rng. Theo s liu ca A.A.Letseva ma b gi li tn rng tng bch 3537%, rng thng 27-29%. Trn c s tng hp nhiu ti liu nghin cu nh hng ca thc vt n

19

lng ma o c bng thng o ma, P.P.Kuzmin thnh lp tng quan sau y tnh theo %.
ng trng nh trong rng 100 Rng c l 100 76 Thng Tng bch 62 ng rng 72

1.4.4. Kh hu 1 Bc x Ngun nng lng bc x mt tri ngun nhit ch yu to nn nhit khng kh. Hng nm tng nng lng mt tri i n ranh gii ca kh quyn l 250 kcal/cm2-nm (bng 100%). Ngun nng lng ny c tiu hao vo t nng trc tip khng kh l 35 kcal/cm2 -nm (14%). Dng t nng b mt Tri t l 110 kcal/cm2-nm (44%) v 105 kcal/cm2- nm (58%) bc x tr li khng trung. Trong hn 100 kcal/cm2-nm m Tri t nhn c th 46 kcal/cm2- nm tiu hao vo hin tng bc hi v lng nhit ny v sau li to ra trong khng kh khi ngng t hi nc. Ngoi ra kh quyn cn nhn c t Tri t mt lng nhit 14 kcal/cm2-nm bng truyn nhit do chuyn ng ri. Kh quyn nhn t Tri t mt lng bc x ln hn trc x trc tip ca mt tri 72%. B mt Tri t tiu lng nhit di hnh thc nh th c gi l bc x hu hiu. Lng bc x hu hiu ny l 50 kcal/cm2-nm. Theo nghin cu ca Nguyn c Ng v Nguyn Trng Hiu, Vit Nam l mt vng nhit i, lng bc x tng cng thc t hng nm ca 17 vng kh hu khc nhau v bin thin t 110 - 130 kcal/cm2nm. Lng bc x mt tri l nguyn nhn to nn nhit khng kh v t dn n tng bc hi v gin tip nh hng ti ti nguyn nc. 2. Nhit Xt nh hng ca nhit khng kh nh hng n ch nc t lin c hai loi nh hng: trc tip v gin tip. nh hng gin tip ca nhit khng kh v t i vi ch dng chy lc a l thng qua bc hi. Nhit cao vo ma h lm tng kh nng bc hi v lm gim dng chy mt. Theo Nguyn c Ng, nc ta c mt nn nhit rt cao: nhit cao nht ca 17 vng kh hu bin thin t 38-41,5oC, s ngy c nhit trung bnh trn 25oC bin thin t 150-170 ngy, to nn mt lng bc hi kh ln t 500-800mm/nm. Cng v vy, ch dng chy y ht sc khc nghit vi mt ma kit ko di. c im ca nhit khng kh v t l bin thin theo khng gian v thi gian. Theo khng gian, nhit khng kh v t phn b khng u trn cc i trn qu t v cc lp t khc nhau. Theo thi gian, nhit thay i theo ma, theo thng trong nm. Kt qu l to nn cc khi khng kh c nhit khc nhau cc khng gian khc nhau, thi gian khc nhau chuyn ng theo khng gian qua hai chiu thng ng v nm ngang m gn lin vi n l to nn cc ma c ch ma, dng chy rt khc nhau. 3. Ma Ma kh quyn l ngun b sung c bn cho tr lng nc t lin. Khi nghin cu ch nc t lin, ma c quan tm ngay t thi im ma ri trn b mt lu vc. Nghin cu chi tit ngun gc ca ma thuc v lnh vc kh tng hc. Song mt lot vn nghin cu v ma nh s hnh thnh cc yu t nh hng c im ca ma, phng php tnh ton ma... l i tng nghin cu ca kh tng v thu vn hc mc du c mc chi tit khc nhau. 1. S hnh thnh ma l do hi nc trong khng kh do qu trnh bc hi to nn. Ta thy hi

20

nc trong khng kh trong qu trnh chuyn ng i ln hoc chuyn ng trn mt khi khng kh c nhit thp hn, l iu kin thun li cho hi nc trong khng kh lin kt li vi nhau. Qu trnh lin kt ny cn ph thuc vo p sut hi nc thc t v p sut hi nc bo ho nhit nht nh. Khi p sut hi nc thc t ln hn p sut hi nc bo ho nhit cho, hi nc trong khng kh lin kt li vi nhau v nhit cng gim th ht nc lin kt cng to ra v n mt lc no trng lng ca n ln hn c lc gi do chuyn ng ri ca khng kh gy nn, lc ny ht nc s ri xung to thnh ma. Trong thc t nhiu lc nhit ca khng kh qu lnh, do hi nc chng nhng bin thnh ht nc c kch thc ln gy ma lng m cn bin thnh cc ht nc th rn gy ra hin tng ma m chng ta thng thy vo cui ma h u ma thu nc ta. 2. Nguyn nhn lm cho khi khng kh chuyn ng lnh i, to thnh ma r rt nht l do a hnh ca cc dy ni cao v do front m bn cht ca n l do mt tip xc ca cc khi kh on ln c nhit , m... rt khc nhau trn ln nhau gy nn. Nhng nguyn nhn khc gy nn s ngui lnh ca cc khi khng kh quyt nh tnh cht ca ma. Ma do khi khng kh m chuyn ng i ln nhanh trn a hnh cao s gy ra ma ro c cng ln, thi gian ngn. Ngc li s dng ln ca khng kh m chm chp gy ra ma dm, cng nh, thi gian ko di. Ngoi cc nguyn nhn trn nc ta ma c hnh thnh gn lin vi cc hnh th thi tit nh bo, di hi t nhit i, cc front lnh c khng kh lnh. Ma ln c hnh thnh thng do hai hoc ba t hp hnh th thi tit to nn.

21

Chng 2 IU TRA V TNH TON TI NGUYN NC

2.1. THU THP THNG TIN T LI TRM KH TNG THU VN QUC GIA c c s liu thu vn, nh gi ti nguyn nc phc v cho pht trin kinh t, Nh nc lp ra mng li trm quan trc kh tng thu vn lm nhim v o c v thu thp thng tin v nhng yu t ny. 2.1.1. Phn loi trm thu vn Mng li i trm kh tng thu vn quc gia c th phn lm 3 loi da vo i tng phc v nh sau: 1. Trm c bn: Thu thp s liu phc v cho cc cng tc iu tra c bn ngun nc. V tr t trm mang tnh cht i biu c tnh khng ch cao cho mt hoc nhiu khu vc v s thay i ca cc yu t thu vn, thi gian hot ng di, c s qun l ca mt c quan thng nht. V d, trm thu vn Ho Bnh l mt trm c bn khng ch cho c lu vc sng c ti liu quan trc t nm 1902. 2. Trm dng ring: Thu thp s liu phc v trc tip thit k, thi cng,qun l mt cng trnh no . Ch lm vic, thi gian lm vic ca trm tu theo nhu cu ca ch phc v. Ngy nay s trm ny ngy cng xut hin nhiu hn. 3. Trm thc nghim: Trm dng th nghim cc phng php o c mi, kim nghim cng tc phc v v tnh ton thu vn. Khi quyt nh thit k t trm cn ch n cc vn sau: a. V tr a l ca trm ph thuc vo s bin i ca cc yu t kh tng - thu vn l iu kin ng nht ca mi trng a l ni chung. V tr t trm phi c tnh khng ch cao cho mt vng hoc mt lu vc sng. b. Tnh c trng hay l mc phn nh cc c im ca vng ni t trm v a hnh, a cht v kinh t dn sinh. Trm o thng c b tr gn khu vc dn c. c. Mc chnh xc ca vic xc nh cc yu t kh tng thu vn so vi i hi ca khoa hc, kinh t quc phng. d. K hoch xy dng cc bin php thu li trong quy hoch quc gia. e. Hch ton kinh t. Trong cng tc quy hoch xy dng i trm ni chung l phi lm sao p ng c yu cu s trm t nht vn c th thu c cc s liu y v tin cy v ch nc ca sng chnh v cc ph lu. 2.1.2. Phn cp trm thu vn Cp trm thu vn ph thuc vo khi lng cng vic v quan trc c thc hin trm.

22

Ngi ta c th chia trm thu vn ra lm 3 cp. 1. Trm thu vn cp I c quy nh o nhiu yu t thu vn c bn nh mc nc, lu lng nc v bn ct, ch quy nh c th tu thuc vo s thay i ca cc yu t thu vn theo thi gian. 2. Trm thu vn cp II ch yu l o mc nc, cn cc yu t khc nh lu lng, bn ct ch quan mt s thi on trong nm. 3. Trm thu vn cp III ch yu l o mc nc ngoi ra cn o cc yu t khc nh: nhit nc, nhit khng kh, lng ma.v.v... Ngoi cc trm kiu ny t trn cc sng, cn mt s trm c th nghin cu dng chy trn cc khu vc nh, trn vng t nng nghip, vng ca sng, ao h, m ly.v.v... Vit Nam hin nay c khong hn 2300 sng ngi ln nh c chiu di t 10 km tr vi mng li quan trc : kh tng 172 trm, thu vn: 252 trm, mi trng: 142 trm o cc cp thuc mng li quan trc kh tng thy vn quc gia. 2.2. O C CC C TRNG TI NGUYN NC 2.2.1. o mc nc Mc nc (thng k hiu l H, o bng cm, m) l cao mt thong ca dng nc so vi mt mt chun qui c. C hai loi mc nc: tuyt i v tng i. Mc nc tuyt i l cao trnh mt thong ca nc so vi cao trnh "0 chun quc gia" - mc nc bin bnh qun nhiu nm ti Hn Du trn vnh Bc B. Mc nc tng i l cao trnh mc nc so vi "0 gi nh" tu theo tng trm o. Lng nc chy trong cc sng ngi hoc nm trong sng ngi, ao h, m ly, t ai trn lc a thay i khng ngng. Do lng nc lun thay i nh vy nn mc nc b mt cc thu vc cng thay i lin tc. Tnh cht cc dao ng ny c xc nh bi cc nh hng ca hng lot cc nhn t gy nn cc dao ng theo ngy, ma, nm hoc nhiu nm. Dao ng mc nc nhiu nm lin quan ti cc dao ng iu ho ca kh hu do s thay i ch hon lu kh quyn. Cc thi k lnh hoc nng gy ra s gim hoc tng lng ma, m v bc hi dn ti tng hoc gim dng chy v tng ng vi iu l mc nc dng ln hoc h xung trn cc ao h, sng ngi... Dao ng nhiu nm ca mc nc cng c th do cc nguyn nhn a cht (s nng hoc h y thu vc do cc hot ng kin to) cng nh cc hot ng xi mn hoc tch t ca ao h (th d nh thng ngun trn cc con sng min ni do qu trnh bo mn su y sng lin tc dn ti xu hng h n nh mc nc trung bnh nhiu nm) gy ra. Nhng thay i mc nc ni trn khng lin quan n s thay i lng nc. Cc dao ng mc nc nm c xc nh ch yu do cc iu kin kh hu trong nm, c ngha l do lng ma ri trn b mt lu vc, nhit , m khng kh v gi gy nn tn tht m qua bc hi. Qui m tn tht do thm trong t ai ph thuc vo thnh phn c gii ca t vi cu trc a cht v a mo lu vc, kt hp vi cc iu kin kh tng, c bit vo cc ma thu, xun. Cn cc dao ng mc nc theo ma trong sng ngi, ao h v m ly xc nh ch yu bi v tr a l ca lu vc: ngun nc, m ly v bin. Chng c c mt ngha kinh t khoa hc to ln. Vic xy dng cu cng, p trm thu in, cc cng trnh ven b cng nh cc h thng knh o thu nng, ng s v cc vng dn c phi ch n vic tnh ton ch nc v dao ng ca mc nc trong khu vc thi cng. 23

V d: Xy cu khi nc dng c th lm cn tr tu thuyn, hoc b ngp; knh o c th thiu nc vo ma kit; cc cng trnh ven b c th b ph hu do l; giao thng thu b tc nghn... Nghin cu mc nc gip cho vic iu khin vn hnh hp l s s dng nc cho cc lnh vc kinh t quc dn khc nhau nh thu in, giao thng... Trong o c thu vn mc nc l mt c trng quan trng tnh ton dng chy trn c s quan h thc nghim Q = f(H) xc nh lu lng. Vic o mc nc H d v r tin hn lu lng Q rt nhiu, nn qua vic o H ta c th xy dng c mt bc tranh tng i c th v dao ng ca lu lng nc Q trong nm. Mi trm o mc nc bao gm: a. Cc cng trnh o mc nc bao gm h thng cc o, thu ch, thc o v my t ghi. Vic m t chi tit cc dng c ny v cch s dng chng s trnh by phn sau. b. K hiu cao khng i. Mc nc o trn cc dng c o phi quy v mt mt chun quy chiu ca trm c cao , l hng s i vi thi gian trm tn ti. Cao mt quy chiu ca trm c chn khi xy dng c trm sao cho mt quy chiu nm su hn mt nc thp nht ti tuyn o t nht l 0,5 m. Nh vy cho vic ly s o mc nc lun lun dng. Trn cc con sng khng n nh khi chn cao trn mt chun cn tnh n xi l y sng thp nht. Khi c hng lot trm trn mt on sng ngn (5km), t dc c th chn chung cho c tuyn trm mt cao mt chun quy chiu chung. Mt cao quy chiu chung cng thng c ch nh cho tt c cc trm o mc nc ti h, kho nc.v.v Trn kho nc cao mt chun quy chiu cho thp hn mc nc thit k 0,5-1,0 m trong phn p cha nc. Cc cng trnh o mc nc Cc o: Cc thng dng cc trm trn b cc sng c lng sng thoai thoi( ng bng), nhiu thuyn b qua li hoc dng c cc sng min ni c nhiu vt tri trn dng sng vo ma l. Vt liu dng lm cc c th l b tng, st c thit din ngang l hnh ch nht cnh t 10-15 cm hoc hnh trn c ng knh l 10-15 cm Chiu di ca cc ngp vo vng t cng t nht l 50 cm v nh ln khi mt t t 10-20 cm. Nu l cc g hoc b tng th u phi bt st z= 10-15 cm nh ln khi mt cc 10 mm dn cao . S lng cc mi tuyn o tu thuc vo a hnh b sng v bin dao ng mc nc m quy nh. Khi xy dng h thng cc o cn m bo yu cu sau y: Chnh lch cao gia hai cc k nhau thng t 20-40cm, khng qu 80 cm. u cc trn cng phi cao hn mt nc ln nht t 25-50cm, cao u cc cui phi thp hn mc nc thp nht t 25-50cm. nh s th t cc cc t cao nht n thp nht. Ti cc trm c cc iu kin a cht v kinh t nn xy cc bc thang b tng c gn cc tng tui th ca cng trnh. Sau khi ng cc xong nht thit phi trc a ton b cc cc cho, tnh ton cc hiu chnh so vi mt chun quy chiu cho cc cc va mi a vo s dng. Cng vi cc cc o mc nc ngi ta cn s dng thm thu ch ri cm tay tiu chun di 100 cm c chia ra tng cm mt ( thng lm bng mt ng kim loi nh ). Thu ch. Thu ch c dng nhng ni lng sng dc, t thuyn b qua li. Mi trm o thng dng t 2-3 thu ch. Trm o mc nc bng thu ch tng i thun li v r tin. Thu ch t tt nht l cc knh c dao ng mc nc nm t 2 - 3 cm. Thu ch c th lm bng bng g, st trng men hoc st sn. Thu ch g thng khng bn vng, sn vch trn g d b nc lm bong ra dng khng 24

c tin li lm. Thng thng thu ch bng g c kch thuc nh sau: di 1,5- 4 m, rng 8-15 cm, dy 2-5 cm. Trn b mt c khc di cch nhau 1-2cm hoc 5cm ( ging nh mia trc c). Trn cc cc on trm dng lu nn dng thu ch bng st sn, hoc st trng men l tt nht. Trong cc chuyn i thc a c th dng cc loi thu ch dy kim loi c vch chia tng cm. nhng ni c cu cng, cc thu ch c th gn vo vnh vin. Nu cu nn t thu ch v pha n dng chy, nn t thu ch sao cho chiu dt ca n ct dng chy trnh gy nc dng. * nhng ni khng c cu cng, thu ch c gn vo cc cc, bo v thu ch ngi ta thng xy dng h thng bo v. * cc p nc thng gn hai thu ch o mc nc tuyn trn v o mc nc tuyn di p nc.

Hnh 2.1 Cc loi thu ch

im 0 ca mi thu ch trn tuyn o phi c xc nh so vi mt chun quy chiu. Cao trnh im 0 thu ch nm trn phi thp hn cao im trn cng ca thu ch nm di tip theo t nht l 20 cm. Trn y l cc trm thu ch t theo chiu thng ng. mt s ni thun tin c th t thu ch nghing gc. Thu ch t nghing c li ch n c bo v tt hn. Thu ch c phn chia cc nc bng 2/sina vi a l gc nghing ca thu ch so vi mt nm ngang. Nh vy mi nc chia tng ng vi 2 cm nh l thu ch t thng ng. Trong thc t c th c trm ngi ta t cc xen k vi thu ch o c. C th o mc nc cao nht, thp nht bng thu ch chuyn dng. Quan trc mc nc trn cc trm o c 1 hoc 2 ln trong ngy khng cho php xc nh mc nc ln nht v b nht trong ngy. M gi tr ca c trng mc nc c bit quan trng xc nh gii hn dao ng ca mc nc. V tr gii hn ca mc nc trong cc thi k quan trc c c theo cc thu ch cc i v cc tiu chuyn dng. My t ghi mc nc:My t ghi mc nc c nhiu loi khc nhau. Cn c theo phng trc trng qun giy c th phn thnh hai loi chnh: + Loi trc ngang: c trc trng qun giy nm ngang khi my hot ng + Loi trc ng: c trng qun giy t theo chiu thng ng khi my hot ng.

25

Ngy nay trn cc trm nc ta v cc nc x hi ch ngha trc y rt thng dng trong vn hnh my t ghi mc nc ca Lin X in hnh nht l my t ghi mc nc Vanai. Nguyn l hot ng: Do phao c th ni trn mt nc nn dao ng mc nc c truyn qua cc a quay ti trng qun giy lm trng quay xung quanh trc ca n. Mt khc kim t ghi dch chuyn theo thi gian c phng song song vi trng qun giy cho ta biu t ghi ca qu trnh thay i mc nc. T l biu H=f(t) tu thuc vo biu dao ng ca mc nc. Biu nh th t l ln v ngc li. Cc a gn vo cht 6 cho t l 1:1 v 1:2 cn cht 7 th cho t l 1:5 v 1:10. u th ca my t ghi l phn nh c qu trnh thay i lin tc ca mc nc, gim nh sc lao ng, song cng trnh trm v bo dng kh tn km. Ngoi cc loi my t ghi theo nguyn tc "nc ni - thuyn ni" cn c my o t ghi theo nguyn tc mc nc thay i th p sut tc ng ln senser thay i. My o mc nc ti trm t ghi ca trm thu vn H Ni thuc loi ny

Hnh 2.2. My t ghi mc nc "Valdai"

Cch o mc nc Nu cng trnh o bng cc th dng thc cm tay di 80 - 100 cm c khc tng cm. Cm thc trn u cc v quay chiu dt ca thc theo chiu nc chy xui cc gn b nht trnh hin tng dng nc dn n sai s. Gi a l s o t cc th ta c mc nc: H = a + H0 vi H0 - cao u cc Nu o bng thu ch th: H = H'0 + a. nng cao tin cy ngi quan trc c 2 ln v ly mc nc bnh qun. Cn chn cc sao cho 5 cm < a < 60 - 70 cm S liu o c c cn phi ghi vo s quan trc bng bt ch. S ghi mc nc c cc mc nh sau:
Mc nc bnh Mc nc trn Quan trc ph mt qui chiu cc o,thu qun ngy S hiu Cao :Thng 1 2 S c Ngy 3 Gi ch

(2.1)

26

+ chnh xc mc nc c ti cm. + chnh xc o nhit ti 0,1 0C, nhit k ngm trong nc 5 pht. + Khng c gi ghi 0, thi ngc dng , xui dng, thi mnh t tri sang phi ; nh phi sang tri . + Gi lng ghi s 0; cp 1 - gi yu; cp 2 - gi va, gi mnh; cp 3- sng + Ma ly s o quan trc ti im o ma Tnh ton c trng ca mc nc Tnh mc nc bnh qun ngy Phng php s hc: Dng khi cc ln o trong ngy cch u nhau. Khi thiu mt mt t quan trc cn b sung bng phng php ni, ngoi suy tnh ton Cng thc:

H ng ==
Hi - mc nc thc o ln i, n - S ln o trong ngy

H
i =1

(2.2)

Phng php hnh hc: S dng khi o mc nc khng cch u v thi gian Tnh mc nc bnh qun thng

H th =

H
i =1

ng

(2.3)

Nu trong thng c 1 ngy khng c Hng th khng tnh Hth; n - s ngy o trong thng. Tnh ton mc nc bnh qun nm.

Hn =
Vi N l s ngy trong nm. Tnh Hmax, Hmin thi on.

H
i =1

12

th

12

H
i =1

ng

(2.4)

Mc nc cao nht, thp nht trong tng thi on (tc thi ngy, thng, ma, trn l) ni chung c xt chn t thc o. Trng hp c bit do mc nc thay i nhanh m s ln o t khng phn nh y d qu trnh thay i mc nc theo thi gian th c th dng phng php tng quan hoc ni, ngoi suy tnh b sung mc nc cao nht v thp nht. 2.2.2. o su nh ngha v khi nim su k hiu l h o bng n v cm, m l khong cch t mt thong nc ti y sng theo chiu thng ng. Mc ch ca cng tc o su l xc nh su v tnh cht ca a hnh y sng, h, h cha. Sau cng tc o su c th ln c s lng sng hoc y cc thu vc nghin cu. Ngoi ra ti liu o su cn phc v cho vic tnh ton nhiu c trng thu lc v thu vn khc. 27

Nhim v ca cng tc o su bao gm: - Nghin cu cc i tng nc theo mc ch a mo. - o su phc v cho o c thu vn (o vn tc, tnh lu lng nc v ph sa v.v..) - o su phc v giao thng thu. - o su v a hnh y phc v cho thit k cc cng trnh thu. - o su v a hnh y phc v cho vic nghin cu din bin lng sng v s bi lng cc thu vc. Vic o su thng c tin hnh vo ma nc cn gim chi ph. su thng c o ti cc thu trc o su. Thu trc l mt ng thng tng tng vung gc vi mt thong ca nc v y sng m trn ngi ta tin hnh o su hoc o vn tc. Tn ti thu trc o su v thu trc o vn tc. Vic o su dng v mt ct ngang, mt ct dc on sng hay dng kho st bnh y sng. o su l mt cng vic khng th thiu c khi o vn tc v tnh lu lng. S lng thu trc o su ph thuc vo mc ch o su, t l bnh cng nh rng ca sng. Cc dng c o su Ngy nay ph bin cc dng c o su nh thc o su, so o su, ti v ti trng, my hi m. M t chi tit tng loi dng c nh sau: Thc o su: Thc o su c th lm bng kim loi hoc g c bt st hai u di t 1,5-2 m trn c khc chia cc mc o cch nhau tng cm. Thc o su ch dng trong trng hp su im o khng vt qu 2 m. o bng thc thng rt chnh xc, d s dng song b hn ch bi su ca im o. Thng thc o ch dng o cc thu trc gn b. So o: So o su hnh tr ng knh t 6-8 cm lm bng g c di t 3-4 m. Trn so o c khc chia mc khong cch cch nhau 5 cm. So o su dng kh tin li nht l khi o c trong cc ao h (nhng ni c su khng bin i t ngt) vi su khng ch l 4 m. o su bng so n gin song ngoi hn ch v su cn c hn ch l ch o c nhng ni c vn tc dng chy b v 5 cm/s, ngoi phm vi s cho ta sai s khi o su v tc ng ca lc dng chy ln so lm cho so khng gi c phng thng ng. Ti cp v ti trng:

Hnh 2.3. Di o su

Hnh 2.4. C st o su

y l dng c o su ph bin nht hin nay. Tnh u vit ca dng c ny l o c vi bt k su no v vn tc dng chy no. Ti: Hin nay c nhiu loi ti, c loi gn thng vo thuyn o su chuyn dng, c loi ri c th di chuyn thun tin. Nguyn tc cu to chung ca cc loi ti l c cc b phn sau: 1.Dy cp: Lm bng st hoc dy nha tng hp c di tu theo su ca im o c cun vo mt trc cun cp, 2. Rng rc: iu khin ti khi th v ko ti trng v c nh phng thng ng ca thu trc o, 3.Hp s: quan st di ca dy ti ra khi trc cun cp, 4. Gi : gi cn bng ca dng c khi tin hnh o c.

28

Hnh 2.5. Rng rc v gi

Hnh 2.6. My hi m IREL

Ti trng: Lm bng st c khi lng t 10 - 100 kg dng gn vo u dy st ca cp o vi mc ch cho dy cp c gi theo phng thng ng lc o su. Tu thuc vo su v vn tc dng chy m chn loi ti trng cho ph hp. V hnh dng ti trng thng c m phng theo hnh dng con c nn n cn c gi l c st My hi m: My hi m l dng c c th o su tng im hoc lin tc ti tuyn o. N m bo chnh xc cao, o c nhanh v thun tin. Nguyn l my hi m nh sau: Da vo nguyn l truyn m trong nc k t lc my pht sng n lc sng m gp y sng phn hi li m tnh c su qua qung ng truyn m. V sng m truyn trong nc kh nhanh nn vic xc nh thi gian thng gp kh khn khi thu, pht sng, khc phc ngi ta s dng cc loi ng h chy c nhiu vng trong mt giy xc nh thi gian. Mun cho m thanh c cng mnh phi khuych i m, v gim hin tng khuych tn sng cn phi thu ngn bc sng bng cch tng tn s pht sng.Vn tc truyn m trong nc ph thuc vo nhit v mn (vi t0 =+140C trong nc ngt m truyn vi vn tc 1462m/s). S cu to: Gm 1 b phn t ghi, mt b phn phng i, mt b phn in v mt b phn pht, thu sng m. 1 - B phn t ghi. 2 - B phn khuych i. 3 - Ngun in 4 - B phn thu pht. Khi lm vic my c gn vo thuyn hoc can di chuyn vi vn tc u trn tuyn cn o su. B phn thu, pht sng m t su 0,40 - 0,50 m di mt nc. Khi lm vic trong ng dy thu pht sng rung ng v pht sng m, sng m gp vt cn (y sng) phn x li truyn ton b rung ng ny a ti my bin thnh in nng v phng i truyn ti bt t ghi, nh cc bc " cc bon ho " vi t l c cho ta su ti mi im ca tuyn o. - su c tnh theo cng thc:

h =
trong : - h - su ti im do.

t L c + d 2 2

(2.5)

29

- t - Thi gian o sng m trong nc (140C = 1462 m/s) - L - Khong cch gia b phn thu v pht sng - d - Khong cch mt nc ti b phn thu - pht sng m. Nh vy, b phn t ghi s ghi li hnh dng ca y sng trn tuyn chuyn ng ca my hi m. Dng my hi m o su t ti chnh xc cao ( sai s ni chung khng qu 2% ) nhng s dng phc tp, nht l phng tin di chuyn my ( tu, thuyn, can... ) kh gi c tc u. Mt khc, nhit nc v mn c th thay i vt qu ra ngoi iu kin ca my to nn sai s v su. Do , nu nhit v mn khc sai nhiu vi iu kin ca my khi thit k th cn nghin cu hon chnh kt qu o. Gi s can c gn my hi m di chuyn u trn tuyn o vi tc u th cn xc nh khong cch gia 2 im bt u v kt thc o; V d: Xc nh t l trc honh: T im n trn tuyn o su dng NC vung gc vi R1 R3 (NC ly bng chiu rng sng). Ti im 1 - bt u o cho ta gc b1 Ti im 2 - kt thc cho ta gc b2 Trn my kinh v khong cch thc t 1 - 2 l: B* = NC(tgb2 - tgb1) Khong cch o trn biu t 1 - 2 l b cho ta t l trc honh l b/B*. Trong thc t ngi ta xc nh t l ny cho tng on o. Theo v d trnh by trn t t l trc tung v ti mi im vo biu t ghi ta u c th xc nh c su ca chng. Tnh ton c trng mt ct Din tch mt ct t: Din tch mt ct t l din tch mt ct ngang lng sng vung gc vi hng chy bnh qun, gii hn bi ng y sng v mc nc tnh ton. Din tch mt ct thng c k hiu l W ( hoc F, hoc A ) n v hay dng l m2. Din tch mt ct t c th gm c b phn nc khng chy. Din tch phn nc chy gi l "din tch chy "; din tch phn nc khng chy gi l "din tch t" din tch mt ct t c th dng my o trc tip trn hnh v mt ct ngang hoc tnh bng phng php o gn ng. Theo phng php o gn ng th mt ct ngang c chia thnh cc hnh tam gic hoc hnh thang bi thu trc o su v khi cng thc tnh mt ct s l W = W0 + W1 +... + W n W = 1/2 [ h1b0 + (h1 + h2)b1+... +( hn-1 + hn)bn-1 + hnbn] trong O A a b B
Hnh 2.7. S xc nh v tr thu trc o su bng

(2.6)

(2.7 )

30

Wi - l din tch gia cc thu trc o su th i hi - su ti thu trc i bi - Khong cch gia hai thu trc k nhau i-1, i b0 b1 b2 bn

h1

h2

hn

Hnh 2.8. S tnh din tch mt ct ngang

rng mt nc: L khong cch t mp b nc ny ti mp b nc kia theo mt ct ngang c k hiu B(m) su bnh qun: L t s gia mt ct t v rng mt nc h = W/B. K hiu l hbq Chu vi t: L chiu di y sng thuc mt ct ngang bi 2 mp nc k hiu (m) c tnh theo cng thc:
2 2 2 = b0 + h12 + b12 + (h2 h1)2 +L+ bn + hn

(2.8)

Bn knh thu lc: L t s gia din tch t v chu vi t k hiu l R(m) R = W/ Khi sng rng th c th coi B ; khi R hbq 2.2.3. o lu tc Khi nim Trong o c thu vn lu tc c xc nh nh lu tc tc thi, lu tc bnh qun theo thi gian, lu tc bnh qun theo khng gian, lu tc bnh qun theo c khng gian v thi gian.C ngha l: + Lu tc tc thi dng chy l lu tc mt thi im no . + Lu tc bnh qun theo thi gian l gi tr trung bnh ca lu tc dng chy ti mt im no trong mt thi gian no . + Lu tc bnh qun theo khng gian l gi tr bnh qun thu trc v lu tc trn mt ct ngang. - Mc ch nghin cu: Lu tc l mt c trng thu lc quan trng rt cn thit cho vic tnh ton thu vn, thu lc. nghin cu kt cu ni b dng chy cn phi bit ln v hng ca lu tc ti mt im no trong dng chy v s thay i ca n theo thi gian. Mun xc nh lng nc hoc lng bn ct chuyn qua mt mt ct hay mt on sng no trong mt thi on no cn phi bit gi tr ca lu tc. Ti liu v lu tc p ng cho vic tnh bi, xi l trn mt on sng, vic thit k cc thu cng trnh v v.. Vic nghin cu phn b ca lu tc theo chiu su c th t c bng phng php l lun song cho ti nay vn cha c gii quyt trit . Trong thc tin vn tc trung bnh c biu din bng cng thc: ( 2.9 )

31

u=
vi T l thi on ly trung bnh vn tc u . Cc dng c o lu tc

1 udt TT

(2.10)

Lu tc k: T tng sng ch dng c o vn tc l da vo mi lin h ca vng quay cnh qut trn nguyn tc bin chuyn ng quay thnh chuyn ng thng ln u tin c Lna d Vanhxi s dng trong cc cng trnh ca mnh v ng dng nguyn tc ny o vn tc gi. Phn ln cc ti liu u cho rng Vontman - nh k thut thu (ngi Ham bua) l ngi sng ch ra lu tc k, a vo cng trnh ca ng xut bn vo nm 1970 " l thuyt v s dng lu tc k".

Hnh 2.9. Lu tc k GP-55

Song trc Vontman ngi ta cng s dng cc dng c o vn tc dng chy cng da trn nguyn tc nh l lu tc k. N.D Chapkin cho rng, ngi sng ch u tin ra lu tc cha bit r, cn Vontman l ngi chuyn cc lu tc k c thnh dng tng t nh ngy nay. T trc ti nay lu tc k bc vo ng dng thc tin mt cch chc chn, v l mt trong cc dng c tt nht v ph bin nht o c vn tc dng chy. Phao C ch xc nh vn tc bng phao l cho rng vn tc chuyn ng ca phao bng vn tc dng chy ca nc ti ch phao tri. Gi nh ny lm n gin cho vic xc inh vn tc mc d v l thuyt cng nh thc nghim ngi ta chng minh c rng phao lun tri nhanh hn nc chy quanh n. iu ny c iuboa pht hin nm 1786. Nguyn nhn gy ra hin tng ny l bi s khng cn bng trng lng ca vt tri trn trc chuyn ng.

v
Gx R

Hnh 2.10. S lc tc ng ln vt th tri

Ta xt cc lc tc ng ln vt tri trong nc trng thi cn bng. Gi nh mt h to vung gc c gc to ti tm vt tri, trc honh l chiu ng chy song song vi mt nc. Lc y Acsimet vung gc vi b mt nc v hnh chiu ca n nn trc honh bng 0.G - Lc trng trng hng xung di. Trng lng ca vt ny: 32

G =.V vi: l trng lng ring; V - l th tch ca vt. Hnh chiu ca lc G nn trc chuyn ng l Gx Gx = G.sin

(2.11)

- nghing ca b mt vi mt nm ngang; sin = I - dc ca mt nc.

Nh vy lc Gx l lc lm cho vt tri c gia tc. Di tc ng ca n vt cng tri nhanh ti khi cn bng vi lc cn R. 2.2.4. Lu lng nc Khi nim nh ngha: Lu lng nc l mt th tch nc chy qua mt thit din ngang ca dng chy trong mt n v thi gian. n v o l m3/s hoc l/s; k hiu Q. Lu lng nc l mt c trng rt quan trng; mt trong nhng thnh phn ch yu nht ca dng chy. Trn c s xc nh lu lng mt cch c h thng ngi ta tnh lu lng nc trung bnh ngy, lu lng nc cc i, cc tiu cng nh l th tch dng chy qua khong thi gian ny hoc kia. Cc phng php xc nh lu lng nc ang tn ti c th chia ra hai nhm: o trc tip v o gin tip. Nhm th nht gm phng php th tch da trn vic o th tch bng cc dng c o t di dng nc, ng thi o c thi gian lc y dng c cha. Lu lng l t s gia th tch v thi gian o. Phng php ny thng c p dng trn cc dng chy b nh sui, knh, rch vv... Phng php ny c chnh xc cao. Phng php o gin tip gm nhiu phng php m c trng chung ca n l khng o trc tip lu lng m o mt s yu t ca dng chy v lu lng thu c thng qua tnh ton. Nhm phng php ny bao gm: a. Phng php xc nh lu lng theo vn tc dng chy v din tch mt ct ngang gi l phng php "lu tc - din tch" b. Xc nh lu lng nh cc cng trnh o c nh nh knh o, p chn - lu lng xc nh theo yu t thu lc. c. Phng php hn hp (in, nhit vv..) Tnh ton lu lng nc C 3 phng php: - Phng php phn tch - Phng php gii - Phng php theo cc ng ng lu Trong phng php phn tch l hay dng nht bi tnh gin n ca n v m bo chnh xc tng i cao. Phng php phn tch Lu lng nc c tnh theo cng thc xp x nh sau:

Q = kv10 +

v +v v1 + v2 1 + L+ n1 n n1 + kvnn1 2 2

(2.12)

33

h0 1

h2 h3

hn h4 h5 hn-1

Hnh 2.11. S tnh din tch thnh phn ca thit din t

trong : v1, v2...vn l vn tc trung bnh cc thu trc.

0, n l din tch gia thu trc vn tc gn hai b nht v cc b tri v phi. 1, 2 l din tch gia hai thu trc
k - l h s thc nghim tu thuc vo iu kin b. i vi: - sng l tng ( k = 0,9 ); - sng c b khc khuu ( k = 0,8 ) - mp nc c su = 0 ( k = 0,7 ) - b c lau, sy ( k = 0,5 ) Vn tc trong cng thc ( 2.12) c tnh nh sau a. Lng sng h, khng c c v nc t. o 5 im trn mt thu trc: VB = 0,1. ( Vm + 3 V0,2 + 3V0,6 + 2V0,8 + Vd) o 3 im trn mt thu trc: VB = 0,25 ( V0,2 + 2V0,6 + V0,8) o hai im trn thu trc: VB = 0,5(V0,2+V0,8) o 1im trn thy trc: VB=V0,6 b. Trong trng hp tnh lu lng vi b c lau sy; o 6 im trn mt thu trc: VB = 0,1. ( Vm + 2 V0,2 + 2 V0,4 + 2V0,6 + 2V0,8 + Vd) o 3 im trn mt thu trc: VB = 1/3 ( V0,15 + V0,5 + V0,85) o 1 im trn thy trc VB = kV0,5 Vi h s k = 0,9. Din tch thnh phn ca cc thit din t c xc nh qua su trn cc thu trc o su v thu trc o vn tc. Din tch phn mt ct gia b v thy trc vn tc th nht: (2.19) (2.18) (2.17) (2.16) (2.15) (2.14) (2.13)

34

 0 = h1b0 +

1 2

h1 + h2 b1 2

(2.20)

Do Braslavski a ra rng th tch ti phn m hnh lu lng gia hai thu trc k nhau c th biu din bng cng thc.
x= B

Q =

x =0

hvdx

(2.23)

h - su; v - vn tc trung bnh thu trc; b - khong cch gia cc thu trc; x - to ang xt gia cc thu trc.Din tch mt ct gia thu trc vn tc th nht v th hai l:

1 =

h2 + h3 h +h h +h b2 + 3 4 b3 + 4 5 b4 2 2 2

(2.21)

Mc nc tnh ton khi mc nc bin i nhanh trong thi gian o l cng thc trung bnh trng lng vi Hi - mc nc ti thu trc khi o; qi - lu lng n v ti thu trc, bi - rng sng gia cc thu trc.

H tt =

H 1 q1b1 + H 2 q 2 b2 + L + H n q n bn q1b1 + q 2 b2 + L + q n bn

(2.22)

Phng php phn tch chnh xc Cc gi tr ang xt ca h, v coi nh hm ca x. Gi thit rng s thay i su gia hai thu trc l tuyn tnh gia vi h1 < h2 ta c: h = h1 +

h2 h1 x . Biu din vn tc theo cng thc Chesi b

v = C hI v nhn cng thc Manning C =

1 16 h , vi n- h s nhm, ta c: n
(2.24)

v=

2 2 1 I h 3 = ah 3 n

Li gi s rng n v I l hng s gia hai thu trc th a l hng s, do vy (2.24) c th vit

h h1 3 x dx Q = a h1 + 2 b x =0
Q = kvm
- Din tch t gia hai thu trc vn tc
vm - vn tc ln hn gia hai vn tc ca thu trc k nhau k - h s ph thuc vo t s Vn/Vm Vn - vn tc nh hn gia vn tc cc thu trc k nhau. Lu lng tng cng l tng cc lu lng thnh phn:

x =b

(2.25)

Kt qu ly tch phn v bin i phng trnh cui cng ta c cng thc tnh ton n gin: (2.26)

Q = i k i vim
i =1

i =n

(2.27)

Cng thc (2.27) cho tnh ton ra kt qu vi sai s khng vt qu 4,4% vi s lng thu trc ti thiu, nu dng cng thc (2.21) vi cng s lng thu trc nh vy th sai s c th ti 22%. Phng php gii Trong phng php ny php thay th tch phn bng vic o din tch cc phn b lu lng 35

n v bng my o vung. Lu lng n v c biu din gii tch bng tch phn sau:

q = vdh
0

(2.28)

Qua th th lu lng n v l din tch phn b vn tc trn thu trc. Vn tc trung bnh i vi mi thu trc l php chia din tch cho su. Vic tnh ton theo phng php ny c tin hnh nh sau: 1) Trn giy k li v mt ct ngang v cc phn b vn tc trn cng mt t l, tnh vn tc cho trc q 2) Ly q/h cho ta nhn c vn tc trung bnh thu trc. 3) Dng phn b vn tc trung bnh theo chiu rng sng; tnh vn tc cho c thu trc o su ( q/h t th phn b lu lng thnh phn ) 4) Tnh lu lng n v cc thu trc ( k c thu trc o su vvn tc bng cch q=vtb. h 5) Tnh lu lng nc bng cch dng phn b Q v q thu c kt qu bng m hay dng my o din tch. Din tch ng phn b Q cho ta lu lng ton phn. Phng php ny rt chnh xc nhng mt nhiu cng sc. Phng php tnh lu lng theo cc ng ng lu Phng php ny) bng cch thay tch phn bng tng cc s yu t hu hn trn m hnh lu lng. Th tch m hnh lu lng hay l lu lng nc bng:

Q=

0 + 1
2

a+

1 + 2
2

a + ... +

n 1 + n
2

a + Qk ,

(2.29)

0 - din tch mt ct ngang 1, 2 - din tch gii hn bi ng ng lu th 1,2..

a- khong vn tc gia cc ng ng lu Qk th tch phn cui bng:
Qk = 2 n ( vmax vn ) 3 (2.30)

n - din tch ca cc ng ng lu cui cng

vmax - vn tc ln nht vn - vn tc tng ng vi ng ng lu cui cng.
Nu cc ng ng lu cch u nhau th c dng n gin hn:

+ n Q = a 0 + 1 + 2 + L + n 1 + Qk 2
Th t cng vic tnh ton lu lng nh sau: 1) Trn giy k li v mt ct ngang ca lng sng 2) v cc phn b tc trn thu trc cng t l 3) v cc ng ng lu (t 6 - 10 ng ng lu)

(2.31)

4) o cc din tch bi cc ng ng lu bng my o din tch hay m trn giy k ly. 5) Tnh lu lng nc s dng cng thc ( 2.31 ).

36

2.3. O C TI NGUYN NC MA V NC NGM 2.3.1. o ma

Ti nguyn nc ma c thu thp qua cc trm kh tng v thu vn nh cc dng c o c nh v lng k v v lng k.

V lng k: l thng o ma c t v tr trng tri khng chu cc vt cn ca a hnh nhn lng ma trc tip. Thng c chia cc thang theo mm thun tin cho vic c v ghi chp. V lng k: c t trong bung quan trc ghi li m ca kh quyn. 2.3.2. Kho st ti nguyn nc ngm
Ti nguyn nc ngm thu thp t s liu kho st a cht thu vn. Trn thc a ti nguyn nc ngm c th nhn c qua kho st cc ging hoc cc l khoan. Nc di t cng l mt khong sn, nhng ni v tr lng nc di t th khi nitn c nhiu im khc vi khong sn rn. Trc ht khong sn rn nm c nh trong t cho nn nu ta xc nh c th tch t cha qung (ta gi l thn qung), bit hm lng khong sn ca t , lp tc ta c th tnh c tr lng, cn nc di t li l mt khng sn lu thng. Hai l khong sn rn khai thc i bao nhiu l ht i by nhiu, nhng nc di t, nu bit cch khai thc c th s khng bao gi ht. Ba l tr lng khong sn rn cng khai thc cng ht i, tri li tr lng nc di t nu bit cch khai thc c khi c th tng thm. Cc loi tr lng nc di t l:

Tr lng tnh
Cho d nc c lun lun lu thng thi trong tng cha nc vn lun lun c mt mt lng nc nht nh, l tr lng tnh. S c mt lng nc th hin hai dng:

Tr lng tnh n hi: khi b nn bi p lc, nc b co li, mi trng t cng b co li, tt c nhng tc dng lm cho th tch nc b thu nh li, nu ta gii 'phng p lc th th tch nc li n ra. Phn n ra (hiu s gia th tch nc khi n ra v khi co li) l tr lng n hi. Nu p lc nn ln l H mt ct nc, h s nh nc n hi l * th tr lng tnh n hi Vh = *'H.F, trong F l din tch phn b tng cha nc, tr lng tnh n hi c n v l n v th tch, m3, km3 (bng 10 m3) hoc Km3 (bng 109m3).
Trong tng cha nc khng p th p lc H ni trn l bng na chiu dy tng cha nc (p lc trung bnh), nhng tng cha nc khng p thng chiu dy mng nn ta c th b qua tr lng n hi. Trong tng cha nc c p th p lc ni trn H=H' +m/2 trong H l ct nc trn mi tng cha nc ( m l chiu dy tng eha nc. Khi chiu dy tng cha nc b (m b) m ct nc trn mi ln th ngi ta c th b qua s hng th hai v bn phi v xem H ~ H', cn khi chiu dy tng cha nc rt ln nhng ct nc H' b th s hn th hai khng th b qua. Nhng mt khc ta li thy rng nu chiu dy tng ch nc ln m ct nc H' khng ln th lc by gi ton b tr lng tnh n hi li khng ng k so vi tr lng tnh trng lc m ta s ni sau, lc tr lng tnh n hi cng c th b qua.

Tr lng tnh trng lc l lng nc c mt thng xuyn trong tng cha nc sau khi loi tr tr lng tnh n hi.
Vtl = .m..F (i vi tng cha nc p lc) Vtl = hF (i vi tng cha nc khng p). trong m - chiu dy tng cha nc p lc (chiu dy m thay i theo khng gian nn l

37

chiu dy trung bnh ca tng cha nc). '

h - chiu dy tng cha nc khng p (chiu dy ny thay i theo thi gian nn ta ly chiu dy tng cha nc lc mc nc thp nht, v v n cng thay i theo khng gian nn cng l chiu dy trung bnh tng cha nc). F l din tch phn b tng cha nc.
- l nh nc trng lc. i vi tng cha nc khng p chng ta c th trc tip th nghim ngoi tri c , nhng i vi tng cha nc c p khng th th nghim ngoi tri thu c , v vy c hai cch gii quyt. Nu nh yu cu chnh xc khng cao, e th l mu v phng th nghim, ci kh ly mu v phng th nghim l thng kh gi c mu nguyn dng. Do ngoi tri ngi ta th nghim xc nh mt thng s khc thay cho , l l hng hu hiu ne. nh nc trng lc thng khong l - 2. 10-l, cn nh nc n hi thng l - 2 10-3 (tc nh gp trm ln) l l do ti sa tr lng tnh n hi do na chiu dy tng cha nc gy ra (h/2 trng hp nc khng p v m/2 trng hp nc c p gy ra) c th b qua trc tr lng tnh trng lc. Tr lng tnh trng lc c nc di t tng ng vi tr lng ca khong sn rn.

Tr lung ng
Tr lung ng l lng nc lu thng trong t , s d c loi tr lng ny l v c ngun nc cung cp cho nc di t. Chng hn nc ma ngm xung, nc mt ngm xung b sung cho nc di t, nhng nu c ngun b sung m nc li khng c li thot th nc di t cng khng th lu thng c, m nc khng lu thng c, ngun b sung kia vn khng chui c vo tng cha nc, cho nn iu kin tin quyt c nc lu thng l phi va c ngun b sung va c li thot. Do nc thot i bao gi cng chm chp hn ngun b sung, lng nc thot i khng kp s lm nng cao mc nc ca tng cha nc, khi ngun b sung ngng, qu trnh thot nc s lm mc nc ca tng cha nc h dn xung. Nh vy lng nc lu thng trong tng cha nc cng lun lun thay i theo thi gian, khi c nc ngm n b sung, lng nc lu thng tng dn, trong qu trnh ny s thay i ca lng nc lu thng ty thuc vo s thay i ca lng nc ngm xung b sung. Nhng n khi lng nc n b sung chm dt, lng nc lu thng s gim dn theo mt qui lut nht nh. Nh vy ta c th c 3 cch xc nh tr lng ng: mt l ta c th nghin cu qu trnh lu thng nc trong tng ch nc, hai l nghin cu xem ngun b sung nh th no min cung cp, ba l nghin cu qu trnh nc thot i nh th no min thot. Trn nguyn tc ba cch xc nh phi cho kt qa nh nhau bi v mi lin h gia chng rt cht ch: l c b sung bao nhiu th phi lu thng by nhiu v thot i cng by nhiu. Nhng ni nh vy l ni cho sut mt qu trnh lu di, cn tng nm mt vn c s sai khc, s sai khc th hin mc nc cc i v cc tiu nm ny khc nm n V tr lng ng thay i theo thi gian nn xc nh c n mt cch chnh xc khng phi d dng, v vy ngi ta thng c gng p dng nhiu phng php xc nh c th so snh kt qa t chn c con s tin cy.

1. Xc nh tr lng ng bng cch nghin cu s lu thng ca nc trong t ..S lu thng th hin bng lu lng nc chy qua mt tit din vung gc vi dng chy. Nh vy trc tin ngi ta phi chn mt tit din vung gc vi dng chy, tit din tt nhin l phi trng vi mt ng thy ng cao hoc thy ng p, trn tit din phn ra tng on, trn mi on c im dng chy tng i ng nht, xc nh dn nc v gradien thy lc mi on v tnh lu lng bng cng thc sau

38

Q = Bi Ti I i
1

B- chiu rng mi on; T- dn nc mi on; 1- gradien thy lc mi on; i on th i n- tng s on..

R rng nu ta c mt bn thy ng cao hoc thy ng p, mt bn ng dn nc th ta c th d dng xc nh tr lng ng. Nh vy ta cng c th thy l phi l mt vng nghin cu chi tit th mi c c cc bn nh vy. Hn na, d c nghin cu chi tit n u th cng khng th v c rt nhiu bn thy ng cao v thy ng p? ni mt cch khc khng th nghin cu y c s thay i ca lu lng theo thi gian. Do , phng php xc nh tr lng ny ch c dng trong nhng trng hp c th, v d cung cp nc, ngi ta quan tm trc nht l lc kh nht c nc khng? tc l ch cn v bn thy ng cao hoc thy ng p lc mc nc thp nht, hoc l trong tho kh m ngi ta quan tm l lc nc chy vo m nhiu nht th lu lng l bao nhiu, do cn lp mt bn thy ng cao hoc thy ng p lc mc nc cao nht. Trng hp nh gi trung bnh mc lu thng nc, ngi ta lp mt bn thy ng cao hoc thy ng p trung bnh.

2. Xc nh tr lng ng bng cch nghin cu nc thot ra min thot. min ng bng nc thot ra min thot rt kh nhn thy nn rt kh xc nh, cho nn phng php xc nh tr lng ng ny ch p dng cho cc vng i ni. Ngi ta o lu lng cc sng sui, mi con sng hoc con sui thot nc t mt lu vc nht nh, v cho rng lu vc thot nc di t cng trng vi lu vc thot ne trn mt, c ngha l cng mt din tch lu vc F. Ngi ta lp biu thay i lu lng theo thi gian, trn biu ny ngi ta phn ra phn dng mt v dng ngm. Mun phn c chnh xc cn lu hai im sau y: nh l s tng ng vi mc nc sng cao nht, khi mc nc sng cao nht th gradien thy lc dng ngm b nht nn lu lng dng ngm thot ra sng b nht, hai l nc ma thot ra sng sui nhanh hn l ngm xung b mt nc ngm cho nn d mc nc sng dng ln nhng mc nc ngm ni chung cha dng nn qui lut lu thng ca nc ngm vn tip tc qui lut lu thng khi ngun b sung chm dt. Qui lut th hin lu lng nc ngm thot ra ngoi theo cng thc:

Q = Q0 e t
Qo - lu lng lc u; Q - lu lng sau mt thi gian t;

- h s trit gim lu lng.

D xc nh ngi ta ly hai im trn ng lu lng ma kit ng vi thi im t1, t2 vi lu lng Ql, Q2 tnh c theo cng thc:

ln Qt1 nQt 2 t 2 t1

Dng h s ta c th ko i ng lu lng dng ngm k t khi mc nc sng sui tng cho ti nh l, nh vy ta c mt im tng ng vi lu lng cc tiu ca dng ngm. T im ny lu lng dng ngm bt u tng, chng ta s ni im ny vi mt im trn ng qu trnh lu lng m lu lng bt u tun theo qui lut Q = Q0e-t.

39

Bng cch v nh vy ta phn ring c lu lng dng ngm, tnh ton b lu lng dng ngm trong mt nm li v chia cho din tch lu vc ta s xc nh c chiu cao dng ngm v do xc nh c m un trung bnh ca dng ngm. Trn biu lu lng ta cng c th xc nh c lu lng thng kit nht, ngy kit nht v do c th tnh c m un dng ngm thng kit nht, ngy kit nht. Vic xc nh lu lng dng ngm min thot c mt u im l ta c th c c ti liu lu lng thay i theo thi gian. Nhng c mt s khuyt im l nc thot ra lu vc c th n t nhiu loi t khc nhau, do kh nh gi tr lng ring cho tng i tng t . khc phc nhc im ny ngi ta chn nhng lu vc nh nm gn trong mt loi t nghin cu. C khi ngi ta cng dng phng php thng k lu lng ca tt c cc mch l ra trong mt tng t v coi l lu lng dng ngm, nhng cch ny th mang ngha so snh ch khng th dng nh lng v c rt nhiu mch l khng th o c, nht l cc mch l dng thm r, cc mch l di dng sui v.v...

3. Xc nh tr lng ng bng cch nghin cu lng nc b sung hng nm min cung cp. Thng ngi ta chi nghin cu trng hp ngun cung cp l nc ma. Mun th ngi ta phi xc nh din tch cung cp cho tng cha nc. i vi nc ngm khng p din tch min cung cp coi nh bng min phn b ca nc ngm. i vi nc c p, min cung cp ch nm phm vi l ra ca tng cha nc pha thng lu ca dng chy di t. Trn min cung cp ngi ta b tr mt mng li l khoan vo nhng ch pha trn mt thong ca nc ngm khng c lp cch nc che ph, v tin hnh quan trc thng xuyn mc nc t nht mt nm, mi l khoan cn xc nh thiu bo ha (thng l xc nh nh nc trng lc thay th), v c lp th dao ng mc nc theo thi gian.
Trn th thng c nhiu nh, mi nh ng vi mt t cung cp ca nc ma, ch bt u sn i ln biu hin nc bt u ngm xung cho ti mc cc i (nh), sau lng nc cung cp chm dt bt u sn i xung, mc nc bt u h thp dn theo quan h

H = Hoe-t
cho n khi li c mt t cung cp mi, nh vy phn sn i ln c th tch lm hai phn, mt phn vn l ngun nc c v mt phn ngun nc mi ngm xung, phn ngun nc c vn tip tc i xung theo quan h H = Hoe-t, phn cn li l phn ngm xung, phn ny tng dn cho n tr s cung cp cc i ca mt t ma. Nh vy phn nc ma cung cp ngm xung ny c mt b phn b vo ch mc nc h thp Z v mt b phn to nn nh ca th H nh vy mi t ma s c mt lng cung cp to ra mt tr s dng cao mc nc l Z + H. Trong tr s dng cao mc nc c c t v nc cho nn qui ra nc th c mt lp nc cung cp dy (H +Z) Trong mt nm c bao nhiu nh trn th th c by nhiu t cung cp v c by nhiu lp nc cung cp nh nh vy. Tng hp chng li l nc ngm xung cung cp c nm
Comment [NTS1]:

W = (H + Z ) mm/nm.
n v W l n v di, nn tt nhin dng. m/nm cng c, nhng tp qun biu din lng ma X, lng bc hi Z, lng dng chy Y u biu din bng mm/nm nn n v ca W cng bng mmlnm tin so snh. Cc ngun nc kia cng c th tnh ra mun, nn lng nc ngm xung cng c th tnh ra mun gi l mun ngm ca nc ma Mw

40

MW =

W 31,5

l/s.km2

Nh vy nu c nhiu l khoan quan trc trn din tch min cung cp, chng ta ly tr s trung bnh v tr lng ng c tnh theo cng thc

Q = MwF
hoc

l/s m3/nm

Q = YF. 103
trong F: din tch min cung cp tnh bng Km2.

Tr lng iu tit
l lng nc di t nm trong phm vi dao ng ca mc nc, tc l gia mc nc cao nht v mc nc thp nht h. Nu din tch min cung cp l F, thiu bo ha l th tr lng iu tit l

Q0t = .h.F,

m3/nm

Tr lng iu tit l mt phn ca tr lng ng, so snh tr lng iu tit vi tr lng ng ta c th hnh dung c dng nc di t lu thng d dng hay kh khn, nu t l b c ngha l lu thng d dng. Kt hp vi cao mc nc xem xt nu thy b mt nc ngm rt thoi th c th ni t thm nc tt, ngc li nu thy t l ln nhng b mt nc ngm dc th c th ni t hoc thm nc km hoc b chng ngi trn ng lu thng.

Tr lung cun theo

Mt im rt c o i vi nc dui t l khi chng ta khai thc, mc nc hoc mc p lc ca tng cha nc h thp c th li cun ngun nc khc vo trong tng cha nc v tham gia vo lng nc khai thc. Chng hn cc ng bng min trung du, bnh thng th nc ngm thot ra sng tc l nc sng khng h cung cp nc cho nc ngm, nhng khi chng ta b tr l khoan khai thc nc ngm gn sng, mc nc ngm h thp, mc nc sng cao nn nc sng s chy vo tng nc ngm m vo l khoan. nh my nc Yn Ph, H Ni chng hn c nhng l khoan tuyt i b phn nc khai thc ln l nc t sng Hng ngm vo. Hoc nh cc l khoan nh my nc Ng S Lin, H Ni l khoan khai thc lp di, do mc nc lp di h thp nn nc lp cha nc pha trn thm xuyn xung qua lp bn thm gia xung cung cp nc cho lp di v chy vo l khoan. Lng nc c li cun vo do qu trnh khai thc gy ra gi l tr lng cun theo. Tt nhin bao gi ngi ta cng mun cht lng nc cun theo phi tt ch khng ai mun cht lng nc cun theo xu lm hng cht lng nc s dng v hng nc tng khai thc. Nhiu khi tr lng cun theo ny v cng quan trng, chng hn H Ni, nu khng c lng nc cun theo t sng Hng vo th ton b khu ni thnh ch c th khai thc vi trm nghn mt khi mt ngy, nhng nh lng nc cun theo m ta c th khai thc c mt triu mt khi trong mt ngy. Tt nhin mun cun theo vo c mt lng nc nhiu nh vy th cc l khoan khai thc nc phi b tr ra ven sng, nu b tr xa sng qu th s cun theo khng c bao nhiu. Trong khi nc cun theo t lp cha nc nng thuc ni thnh H N nh cc l khoan nh my nc Ng S Lin, H nh v.v... th ta li chng mun n cun theo xung lm g v cht lng lp nng xu v bn. C nhng thnh ph trn th gii, lng nc khai thc t tng cha nc khng , ngi ta o nhng h cha nc, bm nc mt vo h c c tr lng cun theo, cch lm ny ta gi l

41

b sung nhn to tr lng cho nc di t

Tr lng khai thc

Tr lng khai thc nc di t l lng nc c th khai thc c vi iu kin k thut hin ti cho php, vi gi thnh cho php, vi cht lng nc m bo c yu cu sut trong thi gian dng nc ra: ng thi khng lm hng cht lng v lm cn kit tng cha nc, khng gy ra nhng tc hi xu n mi trng sng. Nh vy tr lng khai thc cp n mt phm tr rt rng, va l vn ngun nc, va l vn k thut, vn kinh t, vn x hi v mi trng. Chng hn v vn k thut, nu tng cha nc nm qu su, mc nc qu su, khng c thit b bm th bm ln c th khng th a vo tr lng khai thc, v kinh t, nu c thit b a ln c nhng qu tn km hoc phi x l qu tn km khng bng dng mt ngun nc khc r hn (v d nc mt) th cng khng th a c vo tr lng..thai thc. Hoc tuy k thut khng c vn g ln, gi thnh cng r nhng c th gy st ln mt t nghim trng v.v... Tt c nhng vn u l nhng vn quan trng khi xt a mt lng nc di t no vo tr lng khai thc. Di y chng ta ch i su vo kha cnh ngun nc, tc l kha cnh thun ty v a cht thy vn. Lng nc khai thc tt nhin s nm trong cc loi tr lng ta va nu trn. iu trc tin l ta ngh n tr lng ng, loi ny ngm vo, lu thng ri thot i, nu khng khai thc, n s chuyn thnh dng mt v c khi i mt khng th li dng c, vy tt nhin ta c gng tn dng khai thc c ht tr lng ng. Tip ta cn nhc xem c cch no to ra c tr lng cun theo c cht lng tt khng, nu c iu kin, cn tm cch li dng ti a, c bit l cc ngun nc mt, v ta bit rng lng nc di t khai thc, nhiu khi ta c cm gic rt ln, v d lng nc khai thc H Ni tng lai nng ln 1 triu m3lngy, nhng thc ra lng nc cha bng lu lng mt con sng con, tc ch hn 11m3ls, c ngha l khng ng k so vi ngun nc mt. Cui cng ta xt n ngun tr lng tnh. Nu nh ngun tr lng ng quanh nm ta ly ht th nu ly vo tr lng tnh, tr lng tnh s hao ht dn, c mt nm hao ht mt t, cui cng s cn c ngun nc. Nh vy chng ta rt khng mun ly vo tr lng tnh. Nhng c nhng trng hp bt buc chng ta khng ly tr lng tnh khng c.. Cc trng hp l ngun tr lng ng khng c hoc rt b cn ngun tr lng tnh th ln. Ta hy ly v d vng C Mau. y di t vng C Mau c mt thu knh nc nht rt ln, khng c ngun nc nht no b sung c cho thu knh ny v quanh n b nc mn bao vy, C Mau li khng c mt ngun nc mt no c th s dng v quanh nm mn, vy ch c cch l ly vo tr lng tnh ca thu knh nc nht. Nhng ly mi ngy ba nhiu l hp l, nh vy l s ra mt lot vn lin quan, chng hn bao gi th ta c th c kh nng u t tm ngun nc thay th mt khi thu knh ny cn kit, ly mc no mt t vng C Mau khi st thp xung di mc nc bin v.v... Nh vy, vn vi phm vo tr lng tnh ni chung phi cn nhc thn trng, trn nhng nt chung c mt s im sau y gn nh l nguyn tc quyt nh tr lng khai thc. l. Trit tn dng tr lng ng, iu ny ch c ththc hin khi b tr cc cm khai thc trn tuyn thng gc vi hng nc chy. 2. C gng ti a tng tr lng cun theo. Nu tr lng cun theo l cc dng hoc khi nc mt, b tr cc l khoan khai thc ven theo b ca cc dng v khi nc mt . Nu tr lng cun theo l nc thm xuyn th cn b tr cm khai thc ti cc ca s a cht thy vn, tc l ch lp ngn cch tng khai thc vi tng thm xuyn d thm nc nht. 3. Nc di t min ni nm trong nt n, do mc cha nc v thm nc gim

42

nhanh theo chiu su, ng thi chiu dy i cha nc mng, k c nhng vng bazan, khng nn vi phm tr lng tnh.. 4. Nc di t vng ng bng khi tng cha nc khng p khng nn vi phm tr lng tnh. 5. Trong tt c trng hp n ma ma khng tn dng ht tr lng ng th cho php ma kh vi phm vo tr lng tnh vi mc n ma ma mc nc di t c th hi phc li nh c. Cc trng hp sau y cho php vi phm tr lng tnh: l Khng c tr lng ng hoc tr lng ng qu nh. 2. Tr lng tnh rt ln (cc bn actzi, cc tng cha nc c p c chiu dy ln, phn b rng v thnh phn ht th). 3. C kh nng b sung nhn to tng i thun li 4. C kh nng tm c ngun nc thay th lc tr lng tnh cn kit sau ny. 5. H s xm phm tr lng tnh (t l tr lng tnh khai thc so vi ton b tr lng tnh) cn cn nhc sao cho khi tng cha nc khng cn kh nng khai thc th c c ngun nc khc thay th. H s khng bao gi c vt qu 30% trong sut thi gian dng nc tnh ton (thng l 25 nm). Nh vy cng thc chung tnh tr lng khai thc nh sau: V + Vdh Qkt = Qe + Qct + tl t trong Qe - tr lng ng. Qct - tr lng cun theo. Vtl, Vh - tr lng tnh trng lc v n hi.

t - thi gian dng nc tnh ton.

- h s xm phm tr lng tnh.

4.3 Bo v ti nguyn nc Mi trng a l, ni ngun nc hnh thnh v vn chuyn khng ngng c nh hng rt nhiu n cht lng nc sng. Phn tch cc c tnh ho hc ca nc v lin h vi nhng c im a cht, th nhng, tnh hnh hot ng kinh t ca con ngi ca lu vc sng c th thy gia chng c mt mi quan h kh r rng. Sng Hng thuc loi c hm lng ph sa ln nht th gii (hm lng ph sa trung bnh trm Sn Ty l 1,3kg/m3, ma h n 3,5 kg/m3, cc i n 14 kg/m3) kt qu ca qu trnh xm thc ca dng sng trn nn th nhng a cht ca vng sng chy qua. Cc hot ng kinh t ca con ngi gy nh hng n cht lng ngun nc l nguyn nhn chnh gy nhim ngun nc hin nay. nh hng ny mt mt trc tip gy ra do cc ngun nc thi sinh hot, rc ri cc khu dn c, th,, mt khc gin tip qua vic lm thay i cc thnh phn cnh quan a l nh hng cht lng ngun nc c tch lu t nm ny sang nm khc, vi tc cng tng dn, quy m cng ln dn gy ra hu qu nhim ngun nc. Tc pht trin nhim ngun nc ph thuc nhiu yu t, trong quan trng l mc pht trin kinh t, mc tng dn s v tnh hnh s dng, bo v ngun nc ca mi nc. Tnh trng nhim ngun nc hin nay thnh trm trng nhiu nc, nht l nhng nc pht trin. M, hng chc cc trung tm cng nghip thi ra khong 94 t m3 nc thi c cht c. Lng nc thi ny tp trung trong nhng khu vc nht nh, nn nhiu sng b nhim ti mc

43

khng dng c. Nhiu sng h, sinh vt b tiu dit hon ton do cht c. Vit Nam ngun nc t nhin rt phong ph, cha c s dng ng k. Ni chung mc tp trung dn c v s cng nghip cn rt thp nn tnh hnh nhim ngun nc cha thnh trm trng. Tuy nhin, do tnh trng nc thi nh my cng nghip chy ra cc sng khng qua x l nhim, nn tng ni, tng lc tnh hnh nhim ngun nc ln ti mc bo ng, nht l cc on xung quanh mt s nh my cng nghip ln nh nh my in Yn Ph (H Ni ) nh my in Ninh Bnh, khu cng nghip Vit Tr... Kt qu cho thy cht lng nc thi ca nh my ny vt qu xa gii hn cho php. y cng l mt vn cn gii quyt trong qu trnh pht trin nn kinh t ca t nc ta. Vic xy dng cc cng trnh thu li, p nc ln, h thng ti tiu cng trnh khai thc nc ngm s gy nn nhng bin i ng k n tnh hnh ngun nc, tnh hnh kh hu a phng, tnh hnh bi lng xm lc, lng cc cht dinh dng, ph sa... trong khu vc cng trnh v vng h lu cng trnh. Trong vn ny, vic phn tch nhng nh hng ca p nc ln n mi trng l mt vn c nhiu ch v mt s kt lun c rt ra t nhiu trng hp thc t ca nhiu ngi. nh hng ny bao gm nhng nt chnh sau: 1. To nn mt kiu kh hu a phng nhng khu vc h. Sau khi xy dng p do mt vng rt rng thuc lng h b ngp nc, lp ph thc vt t nhin c thay bng din tch mt nc h, lm tng ng k lng bc hi, lm bin i m, nhit , tnh hnh ma... 2. Lm bin i tnh hnh ngun nc (nc mt, nc ngm), do tng nhng tn tht thm vo lng h, tn tht bc hi mt nc h. Nhng h iu tra tnh ton khng k cng, nhng tn tht ny c th lm gim ng k lng tr nc trong h cha. Mt s h trn th gii nghin cu p dng bin php chng bc hi mt h, nh mt s h ln M, h N van (Lin X) ngi ta phun ln mt h mt lp mng mng, ch yu l axit bo, v ru c mnh cc bon di, c th gim 50% lng tn tht do bc hi. nc ta, lng nc mt do bc hi thng chim t 5 n 10% dung tch hu ch ca h cha. 3. Xy ra qu trnh bi lng trong lng h cha, trong nhiu nm c tc dng gim dung tch cha nc ca h v qu trnh xm thc nhng on sng h lu p, cc knh dn nc ln v c th nhng khu vc sng kh xa cng trnh. 4. Lm thay i cht lng nc s dng h lu, th d nh gim ng k lng ph sa trong nc, lng cc cht dinh dng, hoc lm thay i mn nhng sng gn bin...nhng nh hng ny trong mt mc nht nh c th gy tc ng xu ti mi trng sinh thi ca c, lm gim ngun li c t nhin ca khu vc.Ngoi p nc, cc cng trnh khc khai thc s dng ngun nc cng u c nh hng n mi trng, th d hin tng st ln h thp mc nc ngm do khai thc nc ngm qu sc gy nn, cng xut hin v lan rng nhiu ni trn th gii gy bao kh khn cho con ngi.

44

Chng 3 CC PHNG PHP NH GI TI NGUYN NC LNH TH

3.1. PHNG PHP CN BNG NC
Phng trnh cn bng nc th hin mt nh lut vt l thng dng nht - "nh lut bo ton vt cht" trong thu vn. Phng trnh cn bng nc l cng c rt hu hiu nh gi ti nguyn nc v phn tch tnh ton dng chy sng ngi. nh gi ti nguyn nc bng phng php cn bng nc l xc nh cc thnh phn ca cn cn nc v cn bng gia cc thnh phn . Nguyn l cn bng nc xut pht t nh lut bo ton vt cht, i vi mt lu vc c th pht biu nh sau: "Hiu s lng nc n v ra khi lu vc bng s thay i lng nc trn lu vc trong mt thi on tnh ton bt k". Phng trnh cn bng nc l s din ton nguyn l ny.

3.1.1. Phng trnh cn bng nc dng tng qut

Ly mt lu vc bt k trn mt t vi gi thit c mt mt tr thng ng bao quanh chu vi lu vc ti tng khng thm nc (hnh.3.1). Chn mt thi on t bt k. Da trn nguyn l cn bng nc gia cc thnh phn n, lng tr v thnh phn i ta c phng trnh cn bng nc.

Z1

Z2

Y1 W1

U1 U2

Y2

W2

Hnh 3.1 S cn bng nc h thng

Phn nc n bao gm:

X - lng ma bnh qun trn lu vc Z1 - lng nc ngng t trn lu vc Y1 - lng dng chy mt n 45

W1 - lng dng chy ngm n U1 - lng nc tr u thi on t

Phn nc i gm c

Z2 - lng nc bc hi trn lu vc Y2 - lng dng chy mt chy i W2 - lng dng chy ngm chy i U2 - lng nc tr cui thi on t Phng trnh cn bng nc tng qut c dng: X + Z1 + Y1 + W1 - (Z2 + Y2 + W2) = U2 - U1
Hoc l: X + (Z1 - Z2) + (Y1 - Y2) + (W1 - W2) = U trong (3.2)

(3.1)

U = U2 - U1
s dng phng trnh (3.1) v (3.2) cn a tt c thnh phn ca cn cn nc v cng mt n v th nguyn.

3.1.2. Phng trnh cn bng nc cho mt lu vc sng ngi

Cc lu vc sng thng c gii hn bng ng phn nc lu vc. Ti ng phn nc khng c s trao i dng chy t ngoi vo v t trong ra. Nc c th ra ngoi lu vc qua mt ct ca sng. Tuy nhin trong t nhin bn thu nc mt v bn thu nc ngm hon ton khng trng nhau nhng v kh xc nh ranh gii nn thng trong cc tnh ton u gi thit n trng nhau. Thng i vi cc lu vc ln gi thit c th chp nhn c, nhng vi cc lu vc b c hin tng karst th iu ny c th dn ti sai s ln khi tnh ton. Do vy cn c phng trnh cn bng nc cho lu vc kn v lu vc h.

Phng trnh cn bng nc cho lu vc kn

Lu vc kn l lu vc c ng phn chia nc mt trng vi ng phn chia nc ngm, khi khng c nc mt v nc ngm t lu vc khc chy n tc l t (3.2) ta c Y1 = 0 v W1 = 0; nc chy ra ca qua mt ct l Y2 v W2, t Y=Y2+W2, Z = Z2 - Z1 l lng bc hi tr i lng ngng t ta c: X = Y + Z U (3.3)

Phng trnh cn bng nc cho lu vc h

i vi lu vc h s c lng nc ngm t lu vc khc chy vo v ngc li, khi phng trnh cn bng nc s c dng: X = Y + Z W U trong W = W2 - W1 (3.4)

3.1.3. Phng trnh cn bng nc ca lu vc cho thi k nhiu nm

Phng trnh cn bng nc dng (3.3) v (3.4) c vit cho thi on bt k t = 1 nm, 1 thng, 1 ngy hoc nh hn na. vit phng trnh cn bng nc cho thi k nhiu nm, ngi ta c th ly bnh qun nhiu nm phng trnh trn vi thi on nm. T cng thc (3.3) xt trong n nm ta c:

46

 Xi
i =1

n
hoc:

=
n

(Y
i =1

+ Z i U i ) n
(3.5)

X
i =1

Y
i =1

Z
i =1

U
i =1

(3.6)

Bi cng thc U i t gi tr xp x bng khng do c s xen k gia nhng nm nhiu nc v t nc phng trnh (3.6) tr thnh dng (3.7) X0 = Y0 +Z0 trong (3.7)

X0 =

1 n Xi ; n i=1

Y0 =

1 n Yi ; n i=1

Z0 =

1 n Zi n i=1

l cc gi tr bnh qun nhiu nm ca ma, dng chy v bc hi. Nu n ln th X0, Y0, Z0 gi l chun ma, dng chy v bc hi nm. i vi lu vc h, t (3.4) vi cc cch lm tng t nhn c phng trnh cn bng nc dng (3.8)

X 0 = Y0 + Z 0 W 0

(3.8)

Trong trng hp lu vc h gi tr nhiu nm ca WI khng tin ti 0 c, bi v s trao i nc ngm gia cc lu vc thng khng cn bng, phn ln ch xy ra theo mt chiu.
3.1.4. Phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n dng chy sng ngi thng qua phng trnh cn bng nc

T phng trnh cn bng nc dng(3.3 - 3.8) c th rt ra s ph thuc gia dng chy sng ngi v cc thnh phn hnh thnh ca n theo dng tng qut (3.9) Y = f(X, Z, W, U) (3.9) R rng dng chy sng ngi ph thuc vo nhiu nhn t ca n thng qua cc bin nm v phi ca phng trnh (3.9). Cc nhn t cng bao gm hai nhm: kh hu v mt m. Nhn t kh hu phn nh bng c trng ma (X) v bc hi (Z), m lng ma v ch ma cng nh bc hi v ch bc hi li ph thuc nhiu vo nhn t kh hu khc nh ch nhit, ch m, ch gi... Ngoi ra ma v bc hi cn ph thuc vo nhn t mt m (nh phn tch trn) nh a hnh, lp thm thc vt (i vi ma) v thm cc nhn t th nhng, a cht, tnh trng canh tc v khai thc ca cn ngi (i vi c trng bc hi). Mt khc mt m cng nh hng trc tip n ch nhit, gi, m... Bi vy, c th ni ma v bc hi l s phn nh tng hp s nh hng ca nhn t kh hu v mt m n dng chy sng ngi. Thnh phn W ch yu phn nh iu kin a cht ca lu vc n dng dng chy sng ngi. i vi cc lu vc kn, thng cc lu vc khng c hin tng karst, hoc l cc lu vc ln c su ct nc ngm ln W =0. i vi cc lu vc nh hoc c hin tng kast thuc loi lu vc h s c W0. Thnh phn U phn nh mc iu tit ca lu vc n dng chy tc l kh nng tr nc

47

ca lu vc trong mt on nht nh v s cung cp lng nc c tr li trong thi on tip theo. Kh nng iu tit ca lu vc ph thuc vo iu kin a cht, th nhng, lp ph thc vt, din tch lu vc, h ao m v nhng tc ng ca con ngi. Din tch lu vc cng ln th kh nng iu tit cng ln, l v: th nht l do thi gian tp trung nc v v tr khc nhau ra tuyn ca ra c s chnh lch ln, hai l do nc mt v cc tng nc ngm c thi gian tp trung khng ng u, ba l do din tch lu vc ln, ct su ca lng sng ln nn tr lng nc ngm ca lu vc cng ln. Rng vo ao h c kh nng tr nc v lm chm s vn chuyn ca nc mt ra tuyn ca ra cn iu kin a cht, th nhng s nh hng n tng tc gia nc mt v nc ngm. Cc hot ng kinh t ca con ngi nh lm h nhn to, ph rng, tp qun v phng thc canh tc c th lm gim hoc lm gim kh nng iu tit dng chy ca lu vc. V rng ma thng xy ra trong thi gian ngn, m dng chy th tp trung v tuyn ca ra sau mt thi gian di, bi vy s thay i lng tr U so vi lng dng chy Y vi thi gian ngn v di cng khc nhau. i vi thi on ngn th tr lng U chim t trng ln so vi Y v khi d lng ma sinh dng chy cha tp trung ra ht tuyn ca ra, cn khi thi on di th s c bc tranh ngc li. Nu thi on l mt s nm th nh hng ca U s khng cn na. Phn tch nh hng ca cc nhn t mt m v kh hu n dng chy sng ngi c bit c ngha khi la chn phng php tnh ton thu vn cho nhng lu vc c t v khng c ti liu c trnh by trong cc chng sau.
3.1.5. Phng trnh cn bng nc ao h, m ly Phng trnh cn bng nc cho ao h

Phng trnh cn bng nc h cha c dng chy c th th hin di dng: X' + Y1 + W1 - Z' - Y2 - W2 = U' (3.10) trong X', Z', U' ln lt l lng ma, bc hi v thay i tr lng nc ca h; Y1, W1 l lng nc mt v ngm chy vo h; Y2, W2 l lng nc mt v ngm t h chy ra. i vi h cha khng c dng chy th Y2, W2 bng 0 v phng trnh cn bng nc c dng: X' + Y1 +W1 - Z' = U' (3.11) Nu vit phng trnh cn bng nc cho thi k nhiu nm i vi h th U' 0 v i vi nhng h ln th thnh phn dng ngm hon ton khng ng k so vi dng mt nn (3.10) v (3.11) c dng: X' + Y1 -Y2 - Z' = 0 v X' + Y1 - Z' = 0
Phng trnh cn bng nc cho m ly

(3.12) (3.13)

V tr ca m ly trn lu vc sng ngi nh hng trc tip ti cn cn nc ca n. Ta xt trng hp m ly h lu v thng lu. Phng trnh cn bng nc cho m ly h lu c dng: X" + Y'1 + Y"1 + W1- Y2 Yh - Z" =U" (3.14) vi X'' - lng ma trn m ly; Y'1 - dng nc mt theo sng, sui vo m ly; Y"1 - dng nc mt t b mt lu vc ln cn vo m ly; W1- dng chy ngm n m ly; Y2 - dng mt ra khi
48

m ly; Yh - trao i nc theo chiu thng ng; Z" - bc hi t m ly; U" - s thay i tr lng m trong m ly. Cn phng trnh cn bng nc i vi m ly thng lu khng c lng nc gia nhp khu gia nn c th vit: X" - Y2 - Z" = U"
3.2. PHNG PHP TNH TON TI NGUYN NC

(3.15)

Trong mi ph thuc vo vic nghin cu hin tng nh l mt yu t a l v yu cu bi ton m phng php nh gi ti nguyn nc c th chia ra: 1) Phng php h s tng cng; 2) Phng php bn v ni suy a l, 3) Phng php tng t thu vn.
3.2.1. Phng php h s tng cng

Ni dung phng php ny l vic phn tch cc yu t ch o ca quan h ang c nghin cu vi cc nhn t tc ng bng cch a cc h s tng cng theo quan h c thit lp ri bng vic phn tch bc dn cc thnh phn c xc nh trong mi quan h ton - l t bn cht tc ng ca mt s yu t chnh a ra cng thc tnh ton chung. C s ca phng php ny l da trn vic coi dng chy l sn phm ca nhiu qu trnh a l t nhin (kh hu v mt m) tc ng ln n. Loi ny thng gp nht nhm cc cng thc trit gim dng chy cc i. Gi s mun xc nh lp dng chy y t tp hp cc yu t a l t nhin trn mt lu vc c th no t quan h ca i lng dng chy A = f( F, x, I, 1,2, 3,...,) vi F- din tch lu vc; xlng ma; I - dc bnh qun lu vc; 1, 2, 3.... l h s rng, ao h, m ly... ta c th c mi lin h t cng thc:

y=

A (F + 1)n

(3.16)

trong (3.16) A - H s a l tng cng cc yu t hnh thnh v tc ng n dng chy. Nu c ti liu quan trc M th c xc nh A bng cch: T (3.16) ta logarit ho hai v: lny = ln A - nln(F+1) T (1.2) theo s liu dng quan h lny =f[ln(F+1)]. T gi tr lnA trn hnh. 3.2 xc nh A, n = tg, thay vo cng thc (3.16) ta c cng thc kinh nghim xc nh y vi tham s A.
lny

lnA

ln[(F+1)]
Hnh 3.2 Quan h lny = f[l n(F+1)]

49

b x
Hnh 3.3 . Quan h y=f(x)

Cng t v d trn nu ta mun xc nh lp dng chy y t s liu ma x th cng thc s dng c dng:
y = A1x + b

(3.17)

vi A1 - H s a l tng hp phn nh quan h gia ma v lp dng chy, b lp dng chy khi cha c ma. Tng t nh vy c th xc nh c cc tham s a l cn tm qua h s a l tng hp trn c s nhn bit dng quan h gia cc yu t v vic phn tch bn cht hin tng hay qu trnh ca cc yu t nh hng.

y4 By 3
Hnh 3.4 S tnh dng chy theo phng php ni suy a l

y2 y1

Y LY L

3.2.2. Phng php bn v ni suy a l

Phng php ny da trn c s gi thit rng cc c trng ca dng chy cng nh cc yu t cnh quan a l thay i t t theo lnh th v tun theo qui lut a i. Ni dung ca phng php nh sau: Theo s trn hnh.3.4, y1, y2, y3, y4 l gi tr cc ng ng mc lp dng chy trn lu vc. Khong cch L, Ly c th xc nh bng cch o trc tip trn bn . Cn xc nh gi tr dng chy y i qua im Y trn ng ng mc gi s By. Theo phng php ni suy tuyn tnh a l ta c:

y3 y 2 y3 y = L Ly
Bin i cng thc (3.18) ta nhn c:

(3.18)

50

y = y3

( y3 y 2 ) L y L

(3.19)

Cc gi tr v phi ca c xc nh do y tnh c d dng theo (3.19) vi phngtrnh bc nht mt n s.

3.2.3. Phng php tng t thu vn

Phng php ny ph thuc vo vic la chn cc lu vc tng t vi l lun rng do dng chy l sn phm ca kh hu v chu s tc ng cc iu kin a l t nhin nn vi cc lu vc tng t (c cng mt iu kin a l cnh quan ging nhau) th dng chy ca chng cng tng t nhau. C cc c trng dng chy ca lu vc tng t ta c th xc nh cc c trng dng chy ca lu vc ang xt qua vic xc nh mc quan h gia hai lu vc tnh ton s hiu chnh. Phng php ny rt hay dng khi ko di cc chui s liu ngn v chui c thi k nhiu nm.
3.2.4. Cc phng php xc sut thng k

C s ca phng php ny coi vic xut hin cc i lng ti nguyn nc c tnh ngu nhin, s hnh thnh chng chu tc ng ca a nhn t. Mc nh lng chng theo thi gian, khng gian tun theo cc qui lut ngu nhin. Vn dng phng php thng k xc nh cc mi quan h gia i lng cn tm v cc nhn t chi phi qua cc tham s thng k c bn. Ngoi ra, vic nh gi kh nng xut hin hin tng cng nh tn sut xut hin n cho nhng kh nng ln lao trong lnh vc d bo v nh gi s bin ng ti nguyn nc theo thi gian v khng gian. c bit, trong lnh vc m hnh ho vic vn dng cc qui lut thng k m t h thng nhiu khi l con ng duy nht khi khng th hiu c ch vt l ca cc mi tng tc c trong t nhin.
3.3. CC PHNG PHP TNH TON THU VN 3.3.1. Tnh ton ti nguyn nc ma

Khi nghin cu dng chy sinh ra trn mt lu vc do ma th vic tnh lng ma bnh qun lu vc l rt cn thit. V dng chy ti mt ca ra ca mt lu vc no l kt qu o ma gy ra trn ton b in tch lu vc to nn ch khng phi do ma mt trm o ma no . Gi s ta c mt lu vc nh hnh 3.5. Dng chy ca ra A l do ma tt c cc trm kh tng 1, 2, 3, 4 tng ng vi cc vng khc nhau trn lu vc to nn ch khng phi do mt trm ma no 1 hay 2... to nn. Do khi nghin cu quan h ma v dng chy tuyn ca ra A cn tnh ton lng ma trn ton b lu vc A. tnh lng ma trn ton b lu vc ta cn thu thp ti liu o ma ca tt c cc trm c trn lu vc v trm ln cn. V ti liu o ma c thi gian quan trc khng ng nht cho nn cng vic u tin l phi tin hnh ko di b sung ti liu cho cc trm thiu ti liu, sau mi tin hnh tnh ton lng ma bnh qun trn lu vc. Tu theo iu kin a hnh ca lu vc v yu cu v mc chnh xc ca nghin cu m c cc phng php tnh ton khc nhau.
Phng php bnh qun s hc da vo cng thc momen bc nht tnh lng ma bnh qun lu vc.

51

X LV = X j
j =1

n
2

(3.20)

1 4

A
Hnh 3.5. Phn b trm kh tng trn lu vc

Trong cng thc trn xi l lng ma ca trm o ma th i, n l s trm o ma trn lu vc. Phng php ny ch p dng cho lu vc c cc trm o ma phn b u, lng ma gia cc trm chnh lch nhau khng ln hn 10% v p dng cho ni c a hnh t thay i, c th l ng bng cn vng ni l khng dng c. Trong giai on quy hoch thit k s b yu cu chnh xc khng cao cng c th p dng phng php ny. Ni dung ca phng php k vung l chia lu vc nghin cu thnh cc vung bng nhau v kch thc ca mi vung ph thuc vo din tch v s trm o ma. Lng ma trn mt vung c xc nh theo phng php bnh qun s hc nu nh trong vung c nhiu trm o ma. Nu trn vung ch c mt trm o ma th lng ma ca trm o ma c trng cho vung ny. Nu trm o ma nm gia ranh gii hai vung th lng ma ny c tnh cho c 2 vung v nu vung khng c trm o ma no th ni suy lng ma ca cc trm o ma gn nht. Cui cng a vo cng thc sau tnh. Ch l s cc vung ph thuc vo cch chia, do kt qu tnh ton ph thuc vo cch chia s vung. Trong thc t tnh ton thng lm nhiu ln chia (thng l 2 ln) sau kim tra kt qu tnh ton gia hai ln . Nu chnh lch nh hn 5% l c.
D A 4 C B 2 I G E

Hnh 3.6. Phng php ng trung trc xc nh ma bnh qun lu vc

52

Phng php ny cho kt qu tt hn phng php bnh qun s hc v c xt n s phn b ca ma theo khng gian. Lng ma ca mt trm o ma ch c trng cho khng gian vung tng ng.
Phng php ng trung trc, cn c tn gi l phng php a gic Thi sn. Phng php ny c xt n din tch khng ch ca mt trm o ma v thng gi l trng s ca trm ma. Din tch khng ch ca cc trm o ma c xc nh nh sau.

V d trn hnh 3.6 c 2 trm o ma trong lu vc (s1,4) v 3 trm o ma ngoi lu vc ( s 2, 3, 5). xc nh din tch khng ch ca mi trm ta ln lt qua cc bc: Ni cc trm o ma li vi nhau thnh cc hnh tam gic 125, 245, 234. K cc ng trung trc ca cc cnh ca cc tam gic trn. ng trung trc ny kt hp vi ranh gii ca lu vc xc nh in tch khng ch ca cc trm o ma. Trn hnh 3.6 cc din tch HGE l din tch khng ch ca trm o ma s 1. Din tch HGCBI l din tch khng ch ca trm o ma s 2. Din tch IBA l din tch khng ch ca trm o ma s 3.v Din tch ABCD l din tch khng ch ca trm o ma s 4. Din tch DCGE l din tch khng ch ca trm o ma s 5. V cui cng ta da vo cng thc (3.21) xc nh

X LV =
trong :

x1 f 1 + x 2 f 2 + ... + x n f n f1 + f 2 + ... + f n

(3.21)

x1, x2,..., x n l lng ma cc trm o ma. f1,f2,..., fn l din tch khng ch ca trm o ma f1+f2+...+fn = F l din tch ton lu vc.

Phng php ny cho kt qu tt v n thch hp vi cc vng ni cng nh ng bng. Ni dung ca phng php ng ng tr lng ma l tin hnh v cc ng ng tr lng ma trn lu vc t ti liu o ma ca cc trm trong v ngoi lu vc. Sau xc nh din tch khng ch gia cc ng ng tr lng ma trong lu vc v cui cng p dng cng thc (3.22) tnh lng ma bnh qun lu vc.

X LV

x + x3 x + xn x1 + x 2 f1 + 2 f 2 + ... + n 1 f n 1 2 2 2 = F

(3.22)

trong x1, x2,..., x n l lng ma ghi trn ng ng tr lng ma; f1,f2,..., fn-1 l din tch gia cc ng ng tr. Phng php ny cho kt qu tt v n xt n s phn b ca ma theo din tch lu vc. Tuy vy nu trm o ma khng nhiu th vic tin hnh v cc ng ng tr cng gp kh khn v gp sai s ln. Cc phng php tnh ma bnh qun lu vc nu trn, nh nhn xt u khng thun tin khi p dng thc t bi kh c vng lnh th no tho mn iu kin ma ri phn b u trn mi din tch lu vc. Xut hin dng cng thc tnh ma trn lu vc tho mn hn l cng thc tnh ma bnh qun lu vc theo cng thc trng s tng quan. Ni dung phng php ny nh sau: Gi s trn lu vc c n trm o ma, lu lng Q ti mt ct khng ch l biu hin ca s tp trung nc trn lu vc. Ma ri bt c im no trn lu vc cng gy s dao ng gi tr lu lng Q ti mt ct ca ra.

53

T tng ca vic xy dng cng thc ny l ch quan nim rng d lng ma ri u trn lu vc th do cc yu t mt m khc nhau dn n vic hnh thnh ma dng chy khc nhau. S ng gp ca lng ma hiu qu t tng khu vc do khc nhau theo t l vo vic hnh thnh lu lng ca ra m ta gi l trng s. Cc cng thc tnh theo phng php k , a gic Thai sn, ng ng v thc cht tnh n trng s din tch nhng cha bi nh ngoi din tch, m t, thm thc vt, a hnh nh hng khng nh n s hnh thnh dng chy. Bi vy tng hp chng xut s dng h s tng quan lm ch tiu xy dng trng s. Cc bc tin hnh: Tnh h s tng quan ri gia chui lng ma trm ma th i v chui lu lng ti mt ct khng ch. Trng s tng quan Ri l t l ca trng s tng quan tng trm o ma ri vi tng cc h s tng quan:

Ri =

ri

r
i =1

(3.23)

Lng ma bnh qun lu vc c tnh:

X LV = Ri X i
i =1

(3.24)

Vi Ri, Xi l trng s tng quan v lng ma trm th i, n l tng s trm ma trn lu vc. u im ca cng thc (3.23) (3.24) l tnh n c im hnh thnh ca dng chy trn tng n v lnh th. Tnh ton theo cng thc ny khng phi v hnh nn trnh c cc sai s ch quan ca ngi v v thun li cho vic lp cc chng trnh tnh ton trn my tnh in t.
3.3.2. Tnh ton chun dng chy nm

Chun cc c trng ch thu vn l gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm ca n vi thi on tinh ton di sao cho khi tng chui tnh ton th gi tr trung bnh ca chng khng thay i. tin chn la ngi ta thng ly mt s chn cc chu k thay i ca c trng ang xt. Thc t ly chun cc c trng ch thu vn di chui cn khong 40 - 60 nm. Chun dng chy nm l gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm, bao gm mt vi chu k thay i chn trn vn ca dao ng lng nc sng vi cc iu kin a l khng i v cng vi mt mc khai thc hot ng kinh t trn b mt lu vc. Chun dng chy nm l mt c trng n nh, l c s xc nh khi qut v ti nguyn nc ca mt lu vc hay mt vng lnh th. N nh l mt im ta hay l chun mc xc nh cc c trng thu vn khc. Tnh n nh ca chun dng chy nm c xc nh bi hai iu kin: 1) Nh l i lng trung bnh nhiu nm hu nh khng thay i nu ta thm vo chui nhiu nm mt vi nm quan trc. 2) N l hm ch yu ca cc nhn t kh hu (lng ma v bc hi) k c gi tr trung bnh ca chng, v chnh cc nhn t ny cng l cc c trng kh hu bn vng ca lu vc hay ca vng. Chun dng chy nm c th th hin di dng lu lng bnh qun Q (m3/s), tng lng nc bnh qun nm W (m3), mun dng chy trung bnh nm M (l/s.km2), lp nc trung bnh nm
54

Y (mm) cho ton b din tch lu vc.

Cc c trng chun dng chy nm biu th di dng M hoc Y mang tnh a i, tc l n bin i t t theo lnh th v c th v bn . Ph thuc vo thng tin ca ch sng ngi m chun dng chy nm c th tnh: a) Theo s liu o c trc tip v dng chy sng ngi cho thi gian di, m bo chnh xc khi xc nh chun dng chy nm. b) Bng cch a chui dng chy trung bnh quan trc trong thi on ngn v chui ko di ca sng tng t. c) Khi hon ton khng c s liu th chun dng chy nm xc nh bng vic khi qut kt qu t chun dng chy nm cc vng khc hoc trn c s phng trnh cn bng nc. Tuy nhin vic c mt chui s liu di l v cng quan trng nh gi v tnh ton chun dng chy nm. chnh l c s nh gi ch nc tng lai khi thit k h cha, iu, cu cng v cc thu cng trnh khc. c trng dng chy c xc nh bc u vi trng thi t nhin ca sng ngi sau dn c hiu chnh tu theo mc khai thc ti nguyn nc trn lu vc.
Xc nh chun dng chy nm khi c y ti liu quan trc

Chun dng chy nm cng nh mt gi tr trung bnh ca chui thng k c th xc nh theo cng thc:

QN =

Q1 + Q2 + L + Q N 1 + Q N = N

Q
1

(3.25)

Vi QN - chun dng chy nm m3/s; Q1,Q2,....,QN-1, QN - cc gi tr dng chy nm cho thi k nhiu nm (N nm) vi n khi tng tip tc chui th i lng trung bnh s hc QN khng thay i hoc t thay i. Do di cc chui dng chy nm thc t khng p ng c yu cu (khng vt qu 60-80 nm, m thng l 20-40 nm) nm chun dng chy nm tnh theo (3.25) thng sai khc gi tr QN vi N mt i lng Qn no , tc l:

Q N = Q0n Qn

(3.26)

Vi Q0n - dng chy nm tnh theo dy hu hn quan trc (n nm); Qn - sai s qun phng ca trung bnh n nm. Theo l thuyt sai s, i lng Qn phn nh sai khc ca gi tr trung bnh n nm vi chun dng chy nm QN cho N nm vi N , s bng:

Qn =

Q
n

(3.27)

vi Q - lch qun phng trung bnh gi tr n v ca dng chy nm Qi vi tr trung bnh n nm hay l trung bnh ca bnh phng lch cc thnh vin ca chui gi tr dng chy nm Qi vi gi tr trung bnh Q0n. Xc nh Q theo cng thc:

Q =

(Q

Q0n ) 2

n 1

(3.28)

so snh chnh xc ca vic xc nh chun dng chy nm sng ngi c lng nc khc
55

nhau thng s dng sai s tng i n xc nh theo cng thc sau:

n =

Qn
Q0 n

.100 =

Q
Q0 n n 1

.100 =

Cv n

100%

(3.29)

vi Cv = Q/Q0n - h s bin i gi tr dng chy nm cho n nm. H s bin i dng chy c trng cho s dao ng cc gi tr dng chy nm quanh i lng trung bnh ca chng v c xc nh trc tip theo chui quan trc. T cng thc (3.29) d dng xc nh s nm quan trc n cn thit nhn c chun dng chy nm vi chnh xc cho trc v vi Cv khc nhau.
n= C v 10 4 Qn

(3.30)

Ch c trong trng hp di chui nm quan trc ln hn 50-60 nm th chun dng chy nm tnh vi di ton chui.
La chn thi k tnh ton

Thi k tnh ton hiu qu cn phi xc nh trong mi trng hp khi m chui nm quan trc khng vt qu 50-60 nm. N bao gm cc chu k y cc nhm nm nhiu nc v cc nm t nc. Ch nn ch vo cc chu k di, cc chu k ngn (2-4 nm) nm trn cc chu k di khng tnh n. Cng b qua cc chu k khng kn (c ngha l ch c hoc nhm nm t nc hoc nhm nm nhiu nc). Kho st tnh chu k ca dao ng dng chy nm mt con sng no v xc nh tnh tng ng dao ng ca mt s sng ca mt khu vc no cn xy dng th ng lu tch sai chun. Khi xy dng cc ng qu trnh lu lng hay mc nc vi s liu nguyn thu rt hay gp phi trng hp xut hin cc chu k nh trn nn dao ng nhiu nm. trnh nhc im thng phi dng n bin php lm trn cc ng qu trnh. Mt trong nhng bin php thng hay s dng nht l nhm gi tr dng chy nm theo mt thi on no , loi th ny trnh c nhng dao ng a phng trn ng qu trnh. Phng php lm trn hay s dng nht trong tnh ton thu vn l ng cong tch lu hiu s hay cn gi l ng cong tng lch khi gi tr trung bnh. ng cong ny khng ch tin li cho vic xc nh chu k dao ng ca nc sng m cn rt tin li khi so snh chu k thay i nc gia cc con sng tng t. xy dng ng cong tch lu hiu s tin hnh theo cc bc nh sau: H s m un c tnh Ki = Qi/ QN hoc Ki = Mi/ M 1. Cng dn lch h s m un ca chui vi gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm bng 1 t ( K 1 ) vi K - h s m un. i i 1 2. Lp quan h

(K
1

1) =f(t).

3. Do h s m un ph thuc vo mc bin ng (hay l h s bin i) ca dng chy nm nn khi so snh dao ng dng chy nhiu nm ca nhiu sng khc nhau ngi ta khuyn nn s dng quan h trit nh hng ca Cv :

56

 (K
1

1) = f (t )
(3.31)

Cv

C th dng nhiu ng qu trnh ln mt th v th ny gi l th hn hp. H ng cong dng (3.31) cng nh mi ng cong tch phn khc c nhng tnh cht nh sau: lch ca gi tr trung bnh i lng (h s m un) cho mt on thi gian m bt k no vi gi tr trung bnh ca n cho thi on nhiu nm c c trng bi tang gc nghing ca ng thng ni hai im u v cui ca on vi trc honh v c xc nh theo cng thc:

K tb 1 =

l d lc m

(3.32)

vi ld, lc - tung u v cui ng cong trn on m; m - s nm trong on. Thi on m gc nghing ln pha trn v Ktb - 1 dng ng vi cc nm nhiu nc, cn thi on mang Ktb - 1 m, ng vi cc nm t nc. Nu trong mt vng no thiu di nm quan trc xc nh chun dng chy nm vi chnh xc yu cu th tin hnh s dng theo chui ang c v nh chp nhn sai s v gi tr ny cha c gi l chun m gi l gi tr trung bnh thi on. Khi gp chui quan trc ngn nn lu rng nu chui ch c mt hoc vi chu k th vic thm mt s nm quan trc nhiu nc (hoc t nc) vo chui nhiu nm c th (mc d chui c ko di) tng sai s xc nh chun dng chy nm mt cch ng k. C th so snh cc ng cong tch lu hiu s ca cc con sng tng t nhau lm trn mt vi ch phn chia chu k khng r rng trn mt ng cong no , gy bi cc nguyn nhn cc b.
Tnh chun dng chy nm khi khng s liu quan trc

Trong thc t tnh ton chun dng chy nm v i lng cc sut m bo khc nhau ca n thng gp cc chui nm quan trc ngn, di ca n khng m bo thu c kt qu vi chnh xc i hi (5-10%). Trong nhng trng hp cn a chui dng chy nm quan trc ngn v thi k nhiu nm theo sng tng t c chui nm quan trc di, m bo chnh xc i hi, v dao ng dng chy nm tng ng vi dao ng ca chui trm tnh ton. Nu sng tng t c di nm quan trc m bo chnh xc ra ca chun dng chy nm ti trm tnh ton th chun dng chy nm tnh ton c xc nh trc tip theo chun dng chy nm sng tng t. Trong nhng trng hp khc i vi sng tng t dng ng cong lu tch v theo xc nh thi k tnh ton. Chn cc lu vc gn vi sng hoc trm tnh ton lm tng t c cng mt iu kin ng nht v v tr a l v cao, cng cc nhn t nh hng kh hu v mt m (ao h, a hnh, c im t ai v v.v..). Cn tnh n c lch dng chy t nhin gia hai lu vc. Tiu chun chnh xc v khch quan nht la chn sng tng t l tnh ng b dao ng ca m un dng chy nm v quan h tng quan cht ch gia hai trm cho thi k ng nm quan trc. Quan h gia hai trm c th lp bng phng php gii tch hoc gii. Quan h gia hai trm tnh ton v sng tng t coi l caht nu nh h s tng quan r 0,8. Mi im lch vt qu 15% cn phi c lm sng t trn c s phn tch thu vn. H s tng quan cp r c xc nh theo cng thc:

57

r=
hoc:

( y y )( x x ) ( y y ) (x x
i

)2

(3.33)

r=

(K

1)( K x 1)

nC vy C vx

(3.34)

vi yi v xi cc gi tr dng chy nm tng ng cc chui ang xt; y0 v x0 - gi tr trung bnh dng chy nm mi chui; Kx v Ky h s m un dng chy nm hai chui; Cvx v Cvy - h s bin i dng chy nm ti cc trm trong thi k ng nm quan trc n. Tnh ton h s tng quan v xc nh phng trnh ng thng hi qui quan h ca hai bin dn theo mt bng chuyn dng. Theo l thuyt sai s, sai s tng cng (%) i vi chui ko di bng:
2 = 12 + 2

(3.35)

vi 1 sai s i lng trung bnh t chui nm quan trc di ti trm gc c di N nm, xc nh theo cng thc (3.30); 2 sai s tng quan (quan h) dng chy cho thi k ng nm quan trc, bng:

2 =

C v2 1 r 2 n

(3.36)

vi Cv2 h s bin i dng chy nm ti trm dn cho thi k ng quan trc; r - h s tng quan dng chy nm hai trm; n - s nm ng quan trc. Khi phn tch cc quan h nhn c ta rt ra cc dng quan h ch yu sau: 1. Quan h ng thng tuyn tnh i qua gc to :

M = aM a

(3.37)

vi M v M a chun dng chy nm nhiu nm sng tnh ton v sng tng t, a - tang gc nghing ca ng thng so vi trc sng tng t. Loi quan h nh vy thng gp trong trng hp khi m dao ng dng chy nm ti c hai trm nh nhau v h s Cv gn nhau. Chun dng chy nm trm ngn xc nh trc tip trn th quan h theo chun dng chy nm trm sng tng t khng cn phi khi phc chui tnh trung bnh v nh vy c chng ch lm tng khong sai s ln m thi. C th gii quyt tt vn trn bng phng php gii tch, ng dng phng php h s:

M = Ma

M tb M tba

(3.38)

vi Mtb - dng chy nm cho thi k nm quan trc ngn theo sng tnh ton; Mtba - dng chy nm cho thi k nm quan trc ngn theo sng tng t. Cng thc (3.38) c th vit di dng:

M =
vi Ka - h s m un trung bnh.

M tb Ka

(3.39)

2. Quan h ng thng nhng khng i qua gc to m ct ti b mt trong hai trc to :

M =a M a b

(3.40)

Quan h (3.40) chng t rng vi gi tr dng chy nm nh mt trong hai sng khng c dng

58

chy. Quan h nh vy chng t dao ng ti hai sng khng ng b v h s bin i ca hai trm khc nhau. Trng hp ny chun dng chy nm ca chui ngn cng ly trc tip t quan h theo chui c nm quan trc di. Gp trng hp ny khi h s bin i hai trm chnh lch nhau ln khi ly chun dng chy nm c th gp sai s ln, ch khi lng nc sng ca chui nm quan trc ngn bng chui nm quan trc di th mi m bo chnh xc trong tnh ton.
3. Khi c s nm quan trc ng thi t 10-15 nm hoc hn v gi tr h s tng quan dng chy nm khng nh hn 0,8 c th dn i lng trung bnh nm quan trc ngn v chui nm quan trc di bng phng trnh hi qui:

M = M tb + r

M (M M tba ) Ma a

(3.41)

vi M - chun dng chy nm (l/s.km2); Mtb - dng chy nm trung bnh chui nm quan trc ngn (l/s.km2); M - lch qun phng trung bnh ca m un dng chy nm; r - h s tng quan gia gi tr dng chy nm ca cc nm quan trc ng thi; a - ch s k hiu c trng ng vi sng tng t. 4. Trong mt s trng hp cc im a ln th khng tun theo qui lut ng thng m b tr gn mt ng cong no . Nu c c s gi thit rng cc im b tr khng ngu nhin m phn nh tnh cht dao ng ca dng chy nm th quan h c dng tnh ton. V c th dng quan h khi phc dng chy ca nhng nm khng quan trc v theo chui mi tnh cc c trng ca dng chy. 5. Trong trng hp ring thng gp vi sng tng t gi tr trung bnh ca c thi k ngn v di ging nhau khi vic dn v chun khng thc hin c v vi bt k quan h no th tnh ton gi tr trung bnh u khng thay i. 6. Nu cc h s bin i Cv sai khc ln (vt qu 20-30%) p dng phng php so snh ng cong m bo dng chy nm, khi xc sut thin ln dng chy nm mt s nm c th l ng u vi c hai trm. Theo xc sut thin ln dng chy trn sng tng t cho tt c cc nm phn b theo th t gim dn xc nh theo xc sut cc gi tr thin ln ca dng chy ti trm tnh ton. 7. Khi ti vng quan trc hon ton khng c ti liu dng chy no c th dng ko di th c th ko di chui theo ti liu ma hoc ht m ca khng kh nhng tt nhin l c chnh xc thp hn.
Xc nh chun dng chy nm khi khng c ti liu quan trc

Nhiu khi ta gp phi trng hp trn vng nghin cu hon ton khng c ti liu quan trc. Khi chun dng chy nm phi xc nh theo cc phng php gin tip. C s s dng cc phng php gin tip l vic nghin cu v phn tch k lng cc nhn t hnh thnh dng chy khi qut ho theo lnh th v dng cc phng php ngoi suy, ni suy trn qui lut a i ca cc c trng ca hin tng thu vn. Cc phng php gin tip thng s dng l: 1) Phng php bn ; 2) phng php ni suy tuyn tnh; 3) phng php tng t thu vn v 4) phng php h s tng hp cc nhn t nh hng ti dng chy nm.
Xc nh theo bn ng tr

y l phng php ph bin nht m bo nhanh chng gii quyt bi ton t ra. Bn c xy dng theo mt tiu chun m bo chnh xc cao vi chun dng chy nm ca tng trm

59

quan trc phi t vo trung tm hnh hc ca lu vc m trm khng ch. V vy chun dng chy nm xc nh theo bn phi tng ng vi trung tm hnh hc ca lu vc cha c nghin cu. Trong trng hp n gin nht, khi lu vc cha nghin cu c mt vi ng ng tr i qua hay lu vc nm gia hai ng ng tr th chun dng chy nm xc nh bng cch ni suy gi tr dng chy nm gia hai ng ng tr .
10 9 I 8 III 7 9 IV 6 5 5 V 6
Hnh 3.7 S xc nh chun dng chy nm theo bn

II 10

8 7

Nu lu vc c nhiu ng ng tr i qua (Hnh 3.7) th chun dng chy nm ca lu vc cha nghin cu M0 c xc nh theo cng thc:

M0 =

M 1 f1 + M 2 f 2 + ... + M n f n F

(3.42)

vi M1, M2,..., Mn l gi tr chun dng chy nm trung bnh gia hai ng ng tr; f1, f2,..., fn l din tch gia hai ng ng tr, F- din tch lu vc tnh ton.
Phng php ni suy

Trn bn in cc gi tr m un hay lp dng chy trung bnh ti trung tm hnh hc ca lu vc mt vi trm gc sng tng t gn trm tnh ton. Chun dng chy nm khu vc ng bng v vng a hnh t thay i c xc nh trc tip bng phng php ni suy trc tip. Nu a hnh i ni th ni suy cn tnh t l bin ng chun dng chy nm theo cao. Sai s chun dng chy nm xc nh theo phng php ni suy ph thuc vo chnh xc tnh ton trm gc. Xc nh chun dng chy nm theo phng trnh cn bng nc. Ti nhng vng t nghin cu m khng th xy dng c bn , khng th dng c hai phng php k trn c th s dng phng trnh cn bng nc xc nh chun dng chy nm theo cng thc: Z
Y = X Z

vi
Y =X ,

(3.43)

vi Y , X , Z l gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm ca dng chy, ma v bc hi.

- h s dng chy

60

trung bnh nhiu nm l t s

/X .

Chun ma nm X xc nh theo ti liu o ma cc trm phn b trn lu vc hoc gn , c th ly t cc ng ng tr trn bn . i lng Z c th xc nh theo cc phng php gin tip, cc phng php tnh ton Z th hin r trong gio trnh Thu vn i cng (1).
Ga tr h s dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm c th xc nh xp x theo cc cng thc thc nghim ca:

M.A. Velicanov - D.L. Xocolovski

=1
B. V. Poliacov

d ; 4,8

(3.44)

=
S. N. Kriski - M. Ph. Menkel
=

9 ; d +9
3

(3.45)

11 d
3

d + 11

(3.46)

Trong cc cng thc trn d - chun thiu ht m ca khng kh.

Xy dng bn chun dng chy nm

Bn chun dng chy nm l mt sn phm c tnh khoa hc v thc tin cao. thnh lp bn chun dng chy nm cn phi s dng nhiu phng php phn tch v tnh ton thu vn a ra mt bn tt nht trn c s ti liu. Phn tch ti liu xy dng bn chun dng chy nm Bn chun dng chy nm thng c xy dng cho mt vng lnh th rng ln vi s khi qut cao v ti liu. Trc ht phi phn tch v nh gi ti liu dng chy xem tng khu vc tnh ton thuc dng y s liu tnh chun hay phi ko di (khi phi tm trm tng t) hoc gi l vng cha c nghin cu chn phng php xc nh chun dng chy nm tng ng. Trn bn nn cn ch cc chi tit c th dn ti sai lch tnh ton chun dng chy nm nh cao lu vc, che ph do rng, mc ao h, m ly v.v.. v dng a hnh phng c s iu chnh cn thit. V quan trng nht, cn tham kho bn ma nm lm sng t nhng im khng hp l gia bn chun dng chy nm v bn chun ma nm. Nhng l gii cc im khng tng ng u phi da trn c s phn tch khoa hc cc ti liu v iu kin a l t nhin ca lnh th. Nu gp nhng trng hp trm o thu vn tha m trm kh tng dy th nht thit khi v cc ng ng tr cn tham kho bn ma. Trong mt s trng hp cn ch phn tch n s bin i a hnh trong lnh th dn cc ng ng tr hp l sao cho ng ng tr khng ct ngang cc ng phn lu. Khi khng iu kin xc nh chun th bn c v theo s liu dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm cn ghi r thi on tnh ton ngi s dng bit v khai thc. Cc bc xy dng bn chun dng chy nm
(1)

T h u v n i c n g. N g uy n V n T u n, N gu y n T h Ng a , N g u y n T h P h n g L oa n v N g u y n T h anh S n , NXB KH& KT , H N i, 19 91.

61

Xy dng bn chun dng chy nm nht thit phi thc hin ng cc qui trnh sau: 1. Phn tch nh gi ti liu dng chy la chn thi k tnh ton chun dng chy nm. 2. Kim tra tnh ng nht ca cc chui s liu. xy dng bn chun dng chy nm ngi ta hay s dng nht l cc ch tiu Wincooson hoc ch tiu Student. 3. Kim tra tnh ph hp v tnh i biu ca chui xc nh chu k tnh ton chun dng chy nm c hi t iu kin tnh chun hay khng? 4. Tnh chun dng chy nm theo ti liu hin c bng cc phng php tnh nu trn i vi tng trng hp c th. Dng cc ti liu v cao, a hnh, thm thc vt v ao h... hiu chnh. Chun dng chy nm qui v gi tr M hoc Y loi tr nh hng ca din tch lu vc. 5. Theo kt qu tnh chun dng chy nm cho tng trm o a chng vo trung tm hnh hc ca lu vc trm khng ch ln bn ng tr. 6. ng ng tr chun dng chy nm trn bn c v theo phng php ni (ngoi) suy da trn lp lun v tnh a i ca dng chy. Khi v cc ng ng dng chy cn tham kho bn chun ma nm v cao ca a hnh. 7. Vit gii thiu cc phng php tnh ton khi xy dng bn lm ph lc thuyt minh i km. Trang tr trn bn chun dng chy nm v t l bn phi tun theo ng qui phm ca Cc o c v Bn Nh nc.

3.3.3. Tnh ton phn phi dng chy nm

Dng chy trong sng khng nhng thay i hng nm m cn thay i theo cc thi k trong nm. Qu trnh thay i dng chy trong nm mang tnh cht chu k r rt, hnh thnh cc pha nc ln nh xen k ln nhau, ph thuc vo tnh cht tun hon ca cc yu t kh hu. S thay i c tnh chu k ny c gi l s phn phi dng chy trong nm. S phn phi dng chy trong nm thng khng ph hp vi yu cu dng nc. Ch c nm vng qui lut t nhin ca s phn phi dng chy trong nm mi c th li dng ngun ti nguyn thu li sng ngi mt cch c ch v hp l. V vy, vic nghin cu phn phi dng chy trong nm c ngha thit thc i vi vic thit k v khai thc cc cng trnh thu li, khi tnh ton dung tch kho nc, cng sut pht in v c trong giai on vn hnh ca kho nc. Xc nh s phn phi dng chy trong nm cn c ngha nghin cu ch thu vn chung, xc nh c mi quan h gia s phn phi dng chy v cc iu kin a l t nhin s dng trong trng hp thiu ti liu.

Cc nhn t nh hng n s phn phi dng chy trong nm.

Tnh hnh phn phi dng chy trong nm th hin qua cc c trng c bn nh bin , thi gian v thi k xut hin cc lu lng tng ng. Phn phi dng chy trong nm thng biu th di hai hnh thc: ng qu trnh lu lng v ng duy tr lu lng tu theo yu cu ca vic thit k cc cng trnh. ng qu trnh lu lng m t s thay i dng chy theo th t thi gian, thng c biu th di dng ng qu trnh lu lng bnh qun tun(10 ngy), thng hoc ma (hoc t s phn trm so vi ton nm), cho ta khi nim trc quan v s thay i dng chy cc thi k trong nm. ng duy tr lu lng bnh qun ngy (cn gi l ng tn sut lu lng bnh qun ngy), n cho ta khi nim thi gian duy tr mt lu lng ln hoc bng mt lu lng no , ng duy tr mc nc bnh qun ngy thng c s dng khi tnh ton cc cng trnh ti, giao thng thu vv...

62

Khi nghin cu ng qu trnh dng chy trong nm trong trng hp c y ti liu thu vn ngi ta thng ch nhng dng qu trnh in hnh i biu cho nhng nm hoc nhng nhm nm nc ln, nc b, nc trung bnh. Trong trng hp thiu hoc khng c ti liu, ngi ta gii quyt theo hai hng: hng th nht l xc nh t phng trnh cn bng nc ca tng thi k trong nm trn c s bit c lng ma, lng bc hi ca cc mt m khc nhau v lng tr nc trong khu vc. Anryanp s dng phng php ny xc nh phn phi dng chy trong nm. Phng php ny xut pht t l thuyt cn nguyn dng chy nn c ngha vt l r rng, song vic xc nh cc thnh phn trong phng trnh cn bng nc khng n gin nht l lng tr nc ca lu vc, v vy thng dn n sai s ln. Hng th hai l nghin cu tnh cht khu vc ca cc dng phn phi dng chy, dng phng php tng t thu vn xc nh phn phi trong nm ca lu vc thiu ti liu.

Vai tr cc nhn t nh hng i vi s phn phi dng chy trong nm.

S phn phi trong nm ca dng chy l do cc nhn t kh hu v mt m quyt nh, mc d phn phi dng chy gia cc nm khc nhau ca cng lu vc cng rt khc nhau nhng vn c th tm thy nhng nt chung nht phn nh cc c im v kh hu v mt m ni . Nhn t kh hu quyt nh c tnh ni chung ca s phn phi dng chy trong mt khu vc a l no , cn cc nhn t a l t nhin khc phn nh s iu tit thin nhin v nhn to ca dng chy trong sng m vi mt mc no y, chng c th lm thay i tnh hnh phn phi sn c mt cch ng k. Xut pht t phng trnh cn bng dng chy ca lu vc y= x - z v w (3.47) ta thy s phn phi dng chy trong nm ph thuc vo lng ma (x), lng bc hi (z), tr lng nc ca lu vc (v) v s trao i nc ngm vi lu vc bn (w) trong tng thi gian. S phn phi ma v bc hi ch yu do iu kin kh hu quyt nh. Lng tr nc ca lu vc v s trao i nc ngm vi lu vc bn do iu kin a l t nhin quyt nh. iu kin a vt l cng c tc dng ti cc yu t kh hu nh hng gin tip ti phn phi dng chy trong nm nhng ch yu thng qua lng tr nc ca lu vc lm cho phn phi dng cha iu ho hn. Trong yu t ny cn ch ti din tch lu vc, ao h, m ly, rng v iu kin a cht th nhng. Nhng h t nhin c nc sng lu thng c tc dng iu tit rt mnh n tr nc trong ma l v nhng khi l n, ri b sung li cho sng sau l lm cho dng chy iu ho hn. Tc dng iu tit ca h quyt nh bi su ca h v dung tch cha l. Theo Xklvski lu vc c nhiu h lng dng chy cc thng rt iu ho ch thay i t 0,90 n 1,10 ln dng chy nm, cn lu vc t h dng chy cc thng dao ng rt ln t 0,15 4,30 ln dng chy nm.

m ly cng c tc dng tng t nh h ao, m ly c din tch rng nh ng Thp Mi c kh nng cha l rt ln. Ngoi ra do ao h m ly c mt thong ln nn cng lm tng lng bc hi ca lu vc. Rng v lp ph thc vt lm gim dng chy mt v lm tng dng chy ngm, lp l mc rt dy trong rng, b r n su lm cho t ti xp c kh nng tr mt lng nc kh ln, lm gim nh hn lng dng chy mt, nht l thi k u ma l, vo gia ma l kh nng tr nc ca tng l mc vn cn nhng do n lun bo ho nc nn tc dng lm gim nh lng dng chy mt c gim i.

63

 cc lu vc c nhiu rng, lng dng chy ma kit c lng nc ngm ca lu vc cung cp lm cho phn phi dng chy iu ho hn nhng lu vc qu nh khng hng c nc ngm th tc dng ca rng ngc li lm cho dng chy km iu ho hn. iu kin a cht th nhng ca lu vc quyt nh qu trnh thm v s hnh thnh lng nc ngm nn c nh hng n lng dng chy ma kit nh hng ca a cht n phn phi dng cha trong nm r rt nht vng vi, cc hang ng vi c tc dng khc nhau i vi phn phi dng chy iu ho hn, nhng mt mt hang ng ngm cng c th lm cho dng chy ma kit mt hon ton. Vai tr ca din tch lu vc cng nh hng rt ln n phn phi dng chy trong nm. Lu vc cng ln, din tp trung nc cng rng bao gm nhiu khu vc c iu kin hnh thnh dng chy khc nhau th phn phi dng chy trong nm cng iu ho, ma l dng nc s khng ln xung t ngt. Lu vc cng ln lng sng cng ct su cng hng c nhiu nc ngm v ma kit sng s khng kh cn. Nhng lu vc nh, do sng ct khng su, khng hng c nc ngm nn ma kit dng chy b gin on hon ton. nc ta do lng ma kh phong ph lng sng ct su nn din tch gii hn kh nh. Ngoi nhng nhn t trn y hot ng ca con ngi nh lm thu li trng cy gy rng, chng xi mn... cng c tc dng n phn phi dng chy trong nm. Vic canh tc khng khoa hc, vic trit ph rng lm cho t ai b xi mn tr nn cn ci c nh hng xu n iu kin hnh thnh dng chy lm cho phn phi dng chy trong nm khng iu ho.

Tnh hnh phn phi dng chy Vit Nam

nc ta lng nc ma l chim 7080% lng nc c nm, thng c lng nc ln nht sng thuc Bc B thng l thng VII, thng VIII lng nc chim 15 35% lng nc c nm. T Ngh Tnh ti bc Bnh Tr Thin thng c lng ma ln nht l thng X, c th chim 50% lng nc c nm, cc sng ng v ty Trng Sn c thng lng nc ln nht l thng IX thng X, lng nc c th chim 20 35% lng nc c nm. Cc sng Nam B thng c lng ma ln nht l thng IX v thng X chim khong 30% lng dng chy nm. i lp vi ma ma nhiu v ma l nuc ta l ma ma b (ma kh) v ma cn. Ma ma b (ma kh) c th ni bt u t thng XI n thng IV nm sau chung cho c nc, song c x dch theo tng a phng ging nh ma ma nhiu. Kt thc ma l l bt u ma cn cc ni. Thng X, XI bt u ma cn Bc B v Thanh Ho, ring ng Bc Ty Bc ma cn n sm hn thng XII bt u ma cn Nam b v Ty Nguyn, vng m nm gia ng v ty Trng Sn ma cn mun nht, bt u t thng I. Trung B ma cn b phn ct thnh hai thi k xen gia l l tiu mn. L tiu mn c lm cho dng chy tng ln, song thi gian c l ngn v vy lng nc c thng khng ln, do vn xp vo ma cn. Lng nc trong ma kh rt nh ch chim t 10 20% lng ma nm, Ty Nguyn c nm lng ma ch chim 5% lng ma nm, s ngy khng ma lin tc c khi ko di ti 120 130 ngy. Ma ma v ma kh Ty Nguyn c s tng phn nhau r rt. Dng chy ma cn ch yu do lung nc ngm cung cp, lng nc ma cn chim 20 30% lng nc c nm. Mc nc cc sng ngi thi k u ma cn xung thp dn, mc du trong thi k ny khi frnt cc i trn qua bc b c gy ma nhng lng ma nh v khng ko di nn xu th chung ca mc nc vn gim nh.

64

T Ngh Tnh tr vo khng kh lnh qua bin nhn thm m v nhit vo ti t lin gp dy Trng Sn nn ma frnt vng ny c mnh hn, lm cho lng dng chy u thng ma cn (thng XIII) vng khu IV c cn xp x 8% dng chy nm, vng ng Bc thng X vng sng Hng vo thng XI lng dng chy thng cng cn t 6 8% lng dng chy nm, cc vng khc lng nc thp hn. Giai on n nh ca ma cn thng ko di khong 3 thng, lng dng chy nh hn so vi cc thng trong nm, lng nc ca 3 thng ny ch chim 7 8%, vng t nc t l cn thp 3 4%. Giai on cui ma cn hot ng ca gi ma pht trin, nhng vo thi gian ny thng xuyn xut hin dng chy nh nht, l lc nc ngm cung cp cho sng t gi tr nh nht tuy c ma nhng dng chy sng ngi cha c b sung.

Phng php phn phi dng chy trong nm theo qu trnh ngu nhin
S phn phi dng chy trong nm theo qu trnh ngu nhin ta c th dng chui Mccp n m t s phn phi dng chy trong nm. Phng php ny coi mt tr s lu lng ca mt thng th i no : Q1 c cu to bi hai thnh phn: Phn lu lng xut hin theo quy lut ch ph thuc vo lu lng xut hin thng trc Qi -1, c biu th bng tr s trung bnh iu kin:

Q'i = Qi + i ,i 1

i (Qi 1 Qi 1 ) i 1

(3.48)

trong : Qi , Qi 1 Lu lng trung bnh nhiu nm thng th i v i -1; i, i-1 Khong chnh lch qun phng ca lu lng thng th i v i- 1; i,i-1 - h s tng quan ca lu lng thng th i v i- 1 Phn lu lng xut hin theo qui lut ngu nhin ph thuc vo xc sut iu kin, c biu th bng F = f(Pi,Csi)

Fi - khong chnh lch tiu chun.

Pi - xc sut iu kin gi tr ngu nhin ca thng th i Csi - h s khng i xng ca phn phi xc sut iu kin. Theo l thuyt xc sut ta c:

i =

Qi Q'i

Q 'i

Qi Q' i

i i ,i 1

(3.49)

trong Q'i l khong lch qun phng ca phn phi xc sut iu kin. Thay gi tr Q'i vo trn ta c:

Qi = Qi + i ,i 1

i (Qi 1 Qi 1 ) + i i 1 i2,i 1 i 1

(3.50)

Cc thng s thng k Qi , Qi 1 , i ,i 1 c xc nh theo ti liu thc o bng phng php to s ngu nhin ta c th xc nh c xc sut iu kin Pi v vy lu lng th i c hon ton chnh xc nu bit lu lng thng th i -1, bit c lu lng thng th i ta li tnh tip cho thng sau c th ta c mt qu trnh lu lng trung bnh thng. Do vic s dng my tnh kh ph bin nn ng dng l thuyt qu trnh ngu nhin vo tnh ton thu vn ngy cng c m rng song do s liu thu vn cn qu t, vic xc nh cc thng s thng k c bn cha bo m, hn na gi thit qu trnh lu lng trung bnh thng tun theo qu

65

trnh Markov n cng cha c sc thuyt phc nn cng cn nhng hn ch nht nh.

Phng php xc nh m hnh phn phi dng chy nm khi c ti liu quan trc
M hnh phn phi dng chy trong nm hin nay ang c s dng rng ri c hai hng: - Phng php Anryanp l phng php t hp thi khong vi s liu khng t hn 10-15 nm. - Phng php nm in hnh.

Phng php V.G. Anryanp

Theo phng php ny, dng chy trong nm, trong thi k gii hn v trong ma gii hn cng mt tn sut. Phng php ny lp m hnh phn phi cho nm thu vn (t u ma l nm trc n cui ma kit nm tip theo). Thng thng nm thu vn khng trng vi nm lch i. Tr s dng chy trong nm cc thi im khong c biu th bng tng cc lu lng bnh qun. ng tn sut kinh nghim c xy dng theo tr s dng chy nm, dng chy thi k gii hn. Tr s dng chy ca ma cn li (khng phi l ma gii hn) c xc nh bng hiu ca dng chy nm vi dng chy gii hn. S phn phi dng chy theo thng trong ma c ly bnh qun i vi mi nhm nm ca ma tnh ton (nhm nm nhiu nc bao gm nhng nm vi tn sut dng chy ma cn P%<33%; nhm nm nc trung bnh bao gm nhng nm vi tn sut dng chy ma cn 33% P% 66 %; v nhm nm t nc P%>66%). i vi mi ma trong nhm nc tng ng, lu lng bnh qun thng c sp xp trong mt hng theo th t gim dn v ghi r tn theo thng lch. i vi tt c nhng nm cng nhm nc tin hnh cng cc lu lng trung bnh thng cng ct v tnh tng cc lu lng bnh qun trong thng trong c ma ( ly tng theo hng sau ly tng theo ct). Da vo kt qu tnh tng lu lng tng ct cc nh c s phn phi dng chy theo thng trong ma theo t l phn trm so vi lng dng chy c ma. Cc t s phn trm ca thng theo s th t c gn cho cc thng c tn s sut hin nhiu nht (trong tng ct). Nhn cc t s phn trm (h s phn phi) ca cc thng trong mi ma vi t l phn trm lng nc ca ma v ghp cc ma li theo trnh t thi gian, bt u t ma nhiu nc, ta phn phi dng chy trong nm. Vi mi nhm c t s phn phi dng chy nm tng ng (nhm nm nhiu nc, nhm nm nc trung bnh v nhm nm t nc). Theo kin ca nhiu ngi nghin cu thu vn th phng php ny c nhiu u im v s dng lng thng tin cha trong chui quan trc dng chy nhiu nht (so vi cc phng php khc), vi tn sut nm o c 12 - 15 nm, cho ta kt qu kh quan v chnh xc.

Phng php nm in hnh

Ta tin hnh phn phi dng chy nm ng vi tn sut thit k theo m hnh phn phi ca mt nm xy ra, c chn lm nm in hnh. Tu theo yu cu tnh ton c th chn nm in hnh nhiu nc, trung bnh nc hoc nm t nc. Nm nhiu nc, nm t nc chn trc tip cc nm c gi tr lu lng trung bnh nm trong chui c gi tr cc i v cc tiu tng ng. Nm nc trung bnh cng chn nm c th c gi tr lu lng trung bnh nm gn nht vi gi tr lu lng trung bnh nhiu nm theo ch tiu u tin chn nh sau: gi tr lu lng trung bnh nm,

66

dng th phn phi Theo quy phm tm thi tnh ton thu vn, dng phn phi dng chy trong nm ca nm thc o c th dng lm in hnh nu tn sut dng chy nm, dng chy trong thi k gii hn, dng chy trong ma gii hn gn bng nhau v tn sut ng thi ca cc tr s ph hp vi yu cu s dng ngun nc, hoc ch sai lch trong khong 10 - 15%. Nu chnh lch phi hiu chnh li th cc gi tr dng chy tng thng trong ma gii hn v cc thng cn li trong nm. Trong trng hp khng chn c nm in hnh th ta phi dng phng php khc tnh phn phi dng chy nm thit k.

3.3.4. Cc cng thc tnh ton dng chy l

L l mt pha ca ch dng chy sng ngi c lng cp nc ln nht trong nm. vng nhit i ngun cp nc ch yu ca sng pha nc ny l do ma. Dng chy ln nht l tr s lu lng tc thi hoc tr s bnh qun ngy m ln nht trong nm. L do ma c to thnh trn cc sng do s ng gp ca cc th tch nc c s trn cc khu vc khc nhau ca lu vc vi t l khc nhau qua qu trnh chy truyn i qua trm khng ch. L c to thnh chu nhiu chi phi ca cc iu kin a l t nhin phc tp, nn nghin cu l khng th b qua vic nghin cu cc thnh t to l, c trng cho qu trnh hnh thnh l.

ngha nghin cu v cc c trng biu th dng chy ln nht

Nghin cu v tnh ton dng chy l v dng chy ln nht c tm quan trng chng nhng v thc t m cn v ngha khoa hc. ngha khoa hc ca vic nghin cu dng chy l v dng chy ln nht ch dng chy l v dng chy ln nht xc nh c im chung ca ch dng chy sng ngi mt vng. Cc c im c bn ca dng chy l nh thi gian duy tr l, cng ln xung, muyn nh l... thng c quan h cht ch vi iu kin kh tng v a l t nhin ca lu vc, n phn nh s thay i theo khng gian ca cc nhn t . ngha thc t ca vic nghin cu dng chy l ch n l s liu quan trng cho thit k cc cng trnh. Thit k vi tr s nc l thin nh s dn n cng trnh c th b ph hoi. Thit k vi mt tr s nc l thin ln, kch thc cc cng trnh cha l, x l ln s gy ra lng ph v lm cho hiu ch cng trnh gim thp.

Cc nhn t nh hng ti dng chy ln nht

Cc nhn t nh hng ti dng chy l c th phn thnh hai loi chnh: nhn t kh tng v nhn t mt m. Trong nhn t kh tng ma ro c tc dng quyt nh, cung cp ngun dng chy. Nhn t mt m nh hng ti qu trnh tn tht v qu trnh tp trung dng chy. Ni n cc nhn t kh hu trc ht ni n ma. Ma tc ng n dng chy cc i tng lng ma, cng ma v tnh cht ca ma. Ch ma nc ta rt phong ph, c ti trn 80% lng ma trong nm tp trung vo ma ma, s ngy ma c th t 80 120 ngy. Ma ma h thng c nc ln, lng ma cng kh ln, c bit l ma dng, nhng ma dng thng din ra trn din tch khng ln trong mt thi gian ngn, v vy thng c nh hng ti s hnh thnh dng chy l trn lu vc nh. i vi lu vc l ln thng do t hp ca nhiu hnh thi thi tit nh dng, bo, ng t, hi t nhit i, rnh thp... nhng hnh thi thi tit ny thng din ra lin tc v bao trm mt din tch ln, lm cho mc nc sng cao v duy tr trong thi gian di d dng sinh l ln. V d: trn l ln trn sng Hng thng VIII nm 1971 l do xoy thp trn di hi t kt hp

67

vi bo gy nn, lng ma phn b trn din tch rng lng ma t 100 200 mm tr ln chim 85% din tch lu lng ma t 200 300 mm tr ln chim 85% din tch lu vc, ni c lng ma t 400 500mm cng khng nh. Xt trong mt trn ma th cng ma tc thi lun lun thay i, tuy thi gian duy tr cng ma ln khng di nhng c tc dng quyt nh hnh thnh lu lng nh l. nc ta nhng trn ma di vi lng ma ln thng c nhiu nh, tng ng nhng nh l thi gian c cng ma ln, tng ng vi qu trnh ma l qu trnh l c nhiu nh. V cc yu t mt m l c sn, hng sn, m ca t, thm thc vt, in trng v.v.. c nh hng ln n tc tp trung nc v ln ca l. Vai tr ca a hnh, hng ni i vi s phn b l cng kh r nt, nhng dy ni cao, n gi thng hnh thnh nhng tm ma ln nh: ng Triu, Bc Quang, Tam o... nhng ni cng l nhng ni c m duyn nh l ln. Nhng trn ma dng kt hp vi a hnh thng gy nn nhng trn l ln trn lu vc nh, Nhn t mt m cn c tc dng quyt nh ti hai khu chnh trong qu trnh hnh thnh dng cha l: qu trnh tn tht v qu trnh tp trung nc trn sn dc v sng. Mt phn lng ma c gi li trn l cy, tn rng khng sinh dng chy, lng nc ph thuc vo mt cy ci v loi hnh thc vt trn lu vc. Tn rng nht l tn rng nhiu tng c kh nng gi li mt lng nc ma kh ln, nhng nh gi ng mc nh hng ca n n dng chy l rt kh khn. Rng c tc dng lm gim dng chy mt, tng dng chy dng chy ngm, lm gim nh l v ko di thi gian l. Vo u ma l tc dng kh mnh, gia v cui ma l khi lu vc bo ho nc tc dng gim i. Khi ma ko da nhiu gi, lp nc tn tht do ngng ng trn l cy, tn rng c th b qua song tc dng iu tit do rng th cn xt n. Ngoi lng tn tht do tn rng gi li, mt phn lng nc ma khc ngng ng li trong cc hang hc trng, ao h, m ly. Khi tnh ton l i vi nhng trn l ln, tn tht thng khng ng k, song tc dng iu tit ca ao h m ly th khng th b qua. Khi bt u ma hai qu trnh trn c th nh hng ng k, khi ma ko di nh hng ca hai qu trnh trn gim dn cn qu trnh thm vn tip tc trong sut trn ma v qu trnh tp trung nc trn lu vc, v vy lng nc thm thng c coi l tn tht chnh khi xy dng cc cng thc tnh ton dng chy l. Khi ma ri xung cng thm lc u rt ln, sau gim dn v ti mt lc no t ti tr s n nh. Cng thm va thay i theo thi gian v thay i c theo khng gian v n ph thuc cht ch vo cc tnh cht c l ca t, m cc tnh cht li ph thuc vo loi t bin ng rt phc tp theo khng gian. Hin nay, trong tnh ton ngi ta thng ly mt tr s cng thm n nh bnh qun cho ton lu vc.

S hnh thnh dng chy l

Khi mt ni no trong lu vc bt u ma, nc ma ng li trn l cy, lp cc khe rng trn mt t v thm t lp t mt, lp nc ma ban u b tn tht hon ton. Nu ma vn tip tc vi cng ma tng dn v ln hn cng thm th mt t bt u hnh thnh dng chy mt. Do ma thay i theo khng gian v thi gian nn c khi ton b lu vc hoc ch mt phn din tch ca lu vc sinh dng chy. Dng chy sinh ra trn cc phn ca lu vc do tc dng ca trng lc lp tc chy theo sn dc, mt phn tch li cc ch trng, hang hc, mt phn tip tc chy t ni cao ti ni thp. Khi dng chy vo sng, mc nc sng bt u dng cao, trong qu trnh chy

68

trong sng n khng ngng c b sung thm nc do hai bn sn dc dc sng vo. Qu trnh chy t t im sinh dng chy ti mt ct ca ra l qu trnh v cng phc tp. Trong qu trnh sinh dng chy v qu trnh chy t v mt ct ti ca ra dng nc vn khng ngng b tn tht. Trn thc t cc qu trnh xy ra ng thi v ln ln vi nhau khng th tch bit c, nhng trong tnh ton li phi chia ra d dng x l. Hnh 3.9 l s khi qut qu trnh ma, qu trnh thm (lng tn tht chnh trong dng chy l) v qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy. Lc bt u ma cng ma nh hn cng thm (at<Kt) lng ma b tn tht hon ton (Ho). Ho YTcn a,k h mm/ph at~t kt~t

t0

t1

Tcn

t2

t3

Hnh3.8. S khi qut qu trnh ma v qu trnh dng chy .a-Cng ma; K-Cng thm; h-Cng sinh dng chy.

T thi im t1 cng ma ln hn cng thm, dng chy mt hnh thnh. Cng ma tng ln, cng thm gim dn, lp nc trn b mt lu vc mi ngy m dy thm, cng sinh dng tng ln ht = at - Kt (cn gi l cng cp nc), lu lng mt ct ca ra cng dn tng ln. Qu trnh ma t ti cng ln nht sau gim dn, qu trnh cp nc ko di n thi im t2 khi at = Kt, lc lp nc mt trn lu vc t ln nht.Thi gian t t1 n t2 gi l thi gian cp nc Tcn v

YTcn = ht dt = (at K t )dt t1 t1

YTcn c gi l lp cp nc.

t2

t2

(3.51)

Khi t > t2 cng ma nh hn cng thm (at < Kt), tuy qu trnh cp nc kt thc nhng dng chy trn sn dc lu vc gim dn vn cung cp nc cho sng ti khi ht, qu trnh l c duy tr mt thi gian na bng thi gian chy t trn lu vc . V trong giai on nc rt vn cn tn tht nn lp cp nc thng ln hn dng chy trn l (YTcn > y), khi tnh ton n gin ngi ta n cho rng chng bng nhau. Cng thc c bn tnh Q max v s phng php tnh Q max t ti liu ma ro. T cng thc cn nguyn dng chy ta xt cc trng hp khi thay i quan h gia thi gian ma v thi gian chy truyn.

Qt = ht f d
0

(3.52)

Di y cc trng hp c th ca cng thc (3.52) khi hnh thnh dng chy ln nht.

69

Trng hp Tcn > . Trong cng thc (3.52) ta d dng nhn thy dng chy ln nht ch hnh thnh thi khong th 4 hoc th 5.
Q4= h1f4 + h3f3 +h3f2 +h4f1 Q5 = h2f4 +h3f3 +h4f2 +h5f1 (3.53)1 (3.53)2

so snh xem (3.53)1 v (3.53)2 gi tr no ln hn ta tin hnh: V trn giy k ly (Hnh 3.9) ln lt cc din tch b phn f1h4, f2h3,... ca cng thc (3.53)1 v f1h5, f2h4,... ca cng thc (3.53)2.

h a)

b)

h3 h4 h2 h1 h5

h3 h4 h2

F
f1 f2 f3 f4 f1 f2 f3 f4
Hnh 3.9. Cng cp nc bnh qun ln nht

1 Nu ta thay cc gi tr h1, h2, h3, h4 trong hnh v (3.9) bng mt tr s bnh qun h v thay h2,

h3, h4, h5 trong hnh (3.9) bng mt tr s bnh qun h 2 ta vn c cc din tch tng ng (3.53)1
v (3.53)2. Nh vy c th vit li biu thc Q4 v Q5 nh sau:
1 Q4= h .F

Q5 = h 2 .F
So snh ta thy h1 > h2 nn Q5 > Q4 v lu lng nh l Qmax = AQ5 T y ta c th rt ra cng thc tng qut Qmax = h. F (3.54) trong : F- din tch lu vc; h - cng cp nc bnh qun ln nht trong thi gian chy t . cng thc tng qut hn, v dng vi cc n v khc nhau ngi ta a vo h s i n v K

Qmax = Kh F = K

(3.55)

Trong Y -lp cp nc ln nht trong khong chy t T (3.49) ta thy ton b din tch lu vc F tham gia hnh thnh nh l, nhng li ch c mt phn lng ma tham gia vo hnh thnh nh l m thi, phn lng ma l lng ma ln nht ri xung lu vc trong thi gian chy t . Dng chy ln nht trong trng hp ny c gi l dng chy hon ton ( vi ngha ton b din tch lu vc tham gia vo vic hnh thnh nh l).

Trng hp Tcn = th khng nhng ton b din tich m cn ton b lng ma tham gia hnh thnh dng chy nh l, y l iu kin pht sinh dng chy hon ton. Trng hp Tcn <. Gi s vn lu vc nh vy vi bn mnh din tch chy cng thi gian ( = 4), nhng ch c 3 khong ma sinh dng chy h1, h2, h3 (Tcn = 3), cng lp lun nh trng hp Tcn >

70

ta c dng chy sau:

Q3 = h1f3 + h2f2 +h3f1 Q4 = h1f4 + h2f3 + h3f2

(3.56)1 (3.56)2

Lu lng ln nht trong trng hp ny ch c th xy ra cui thi khong th ba hoc th t. Cng ging nh trng hp trc, biu th lng ma trung bnh cho c 3 thi on bng hTcn ta c

Tcn Qmax = hTcn f i i =1 max

y

(3.57)

Tcn
i =1

l f2 + f3 + f4 l phn din tch ln nht trong cc phn din tch tng ng max

vi thi gian cp nc Tcn.

Tcn t FTcn= fi i=1 max

ta c:

Qmax = hTcn FTcn =

YTcn Tcn

FTcn

(3.58)

Ta thy Qmax chnh l lu lng ln nht ti mt ct ca ra FTcn no mt ct ny cng khng nht thit phi l mt ct ca ra ca lu vc. V vy lu lng ln nht mt ct ca ra phi nh hn lu lng tnh c t cng thc (3.58) vi l do khi chy truyn ti mt ct ca ra sng l b bin dng. Cng thc (3.52) dng trong thc t rt kh khn. tin khi tnh ton gi thit

FTcn Tcn

. Thc

cht ca gi thit ny l do lu vc c dng hnh ch nht, do cng thc (3.58) cng c dng nh (3.53),(3.56). Trong nhiu trng hp, lp cp nc ln nht Y, cn c biu th di dng h s dng chy, v vy (3.56) c th vit thnh:

Qmax = K
trong gi l h s dng chy nh l

(3.59)

=
H - lp ma ln nht thi khong Y - lp dng chy ln nht trong khong
t a =

Y H

(3.60)

cng ma ln nht trong thi khong ta c: Qmax = K a F (3.61)

Cng thc (3.54) v (3.55) l dng c bn nht ca cng thc l lun tnh dng chy ln nht t ma ro. Hin nay c ti hng trm cng thc tnh Qmax khc nhau, cc cng thc c cc tham s v thm ch kt cu b ngoi khc nhau nhng u c th suy ra t cng thc c bn trn y.. S khc nhau ch yu cch x l cch tnh cc phn ca cng thc nh H, ,a v ... s c trnh by sau. Cc cng thc tnh dng chy ln nht da trn cng thc c bn, hoc c th a v dng cng

71

thc c bn (3.59), (3.61) c gi l cng thc l lun hoc cc cng thc ca cc tc gi khc nhau, ch yu ng li gii quyt c th cc thnh phn trong : , a Hin nay nc ta bn cnh cc cng thc ca nc ngoi c ng dng nh cc cng thc ca Bnakp, Alecxyev, Xklpki (Lin X), cng thc ca Vin nghin cu thu li Bc Kinh (Trung Quc)
Bng 3.1. H s dng chy Loi I Loi t Nha ng b tng khng nt <150 II t st, t st nng 150- 200 >200 t tht, t pdn t tht mu xm trong rng, t vng m ly <150 150- 200 >200 <150 150- 200 >200 < 150 150- 200 >200 Lng ma ngy Hnp <0,1 1 0,95 0,95 0,95 0,85 0,85 0,90 0,65 0,75 0,80 0,45 0,55 0,60 0,25 H s dng cho cc din tch F(km2) 0,1- 1 1 0,85 0,90 0,95 0,80 0,85 0,90 1- 10 1 0,80 0,90 0,95 0,75 0,80 0,80 0,56 0,65 0,70 0,25 0,40 0,50 0,15 10- 100 1 0,80 090 0,90 0,65 070 0,75 0,45 0,55 0,65 0,25 0,35 0,45 0,10 >100 1 0,80 0,90 0,90 0,65 0,70 0,75 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,1

III

t cacbnit, t i IV t rng mu g t si bi t ct dnh, t cc c c mc Ct th, t xp

0,63 0,70 0,75 0,35 0,45 0,55 0,20

V VI

Bng3.2. Thng s tp trung nc trn sn dc md Tnh hnh sn dc lu vc - Sn dc bng phng(b tng, nha ng) - t ng bng loi ta ca (hay nt n ) mt t san phng m cht - Mt t thu dn sch khng c gc cy, khng b cy xi, vng dn c nh ca khng qu 20%, mt xp - Mt t b cy xi, nhiu gc bi, vng dn c c nh trn 20% C tha 0,5 0,40 0,30 H s md trng hp Trung bnh 0,30 0,25 C dy 0,25 0,20

0,20

0,15

0,10

Mt s tc gi trong nc cng a ra cc cng thc tnh ton mi hoc da theo cng thc ca nc ngoi nhng cc thng s xc nh theo ti liu trong nc nh: Vin thit k giao thng, Cc Thu vn v trng i hc Thu li... Vic la chn cng thc, x l cc thng s trong nhng nm u hon ton do ch quan ca ngi thit k. Nm 1974 trn c s tng hp cc s liu o ca min Bc, Cc Thu vn son tho cun Hng dn tnh lu lng ln nht .
Bng 3.3. Thi gian chy t trn sn dc d (pht) d Phn khu ma ro

72

0,5 1,1 2 2,5 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 15 17

1 5,0 9,0 15,0 19,0 23,5 33,0 42,0 52,0 62,0 72,0 82,0 94,0 115,0 158,0 186,0

2 6,0 9,0 12,0 16,0 20,6 27,0 34,0 43,0 52,0 62,0 73,0 83,0 144,0 141,0 155,0

3 4,0 7,0 10,0 13,0 16,5 22,5 30,0 38,0 46,0 64,0 53,0 72,0 90,0 125,0 146,0

4 6,0 9,0 12,5 15,5 19,0 26,5 34,2 44,0 55,0 64,0 73,0 84,0 110,0 142,0 156,0

5 4,0 7,0 9,0 12,0 14,0 21,0 30,0 37.0 45,0 53,0 62,0 71,0 88,0 122,0 144,0

6 6,0 8,0 13,0 17,5 22,5 32,0 42,0 52,0 63,0 75,0 86,0 93,0 116,0 158,0 186,0

7 6,0 9,0 12,0 15,0 18,5 26,0 34,2 44,0 53,0 63,0 74,0 83,0 105,0 142,0 155,0

8 4, 7,0 10,0 12,0 15,0 22,0 29,0 37,0 45,0 53,0 62,0 71,0 880,0 122,0 1440

9 5,0 10,0 13,0 16,0 22,0 32 40,0 50,0 60 71,0 80,0 93,0 116,0 154,0 180,0

Nm 1979 B Thu li cho xut bn quy phm tnh ton cc c trng thu vn thit k QP.TL-C-6-77 quy nh thng nht vic s dng cc cng thc tnh dng chy ln nht.

Cng thc cng gii hn

Nm 1970 Alecxyev a ra cng thc cng gii hn, nm 1970 quy phm QP.TL.C-6-77 s dng cng thc cng gii hn tnh lu lng ln nht cho lu vc c din tch nh hn 100 km2 vi cc thng s c xy dng trn c s ti liu ca nc ta, cng thc c dng: Qmp = Ap Hnp F 1 trong : Hnp - Lng ma ngy ng vi tn sut thit k p (mm) (3.62)

- h s dng chy l ly trong bng (3.1) tu thuc vo loi t cu to nn lu vc, lng ma ngy thit k Hnp v din tch lu vc (F); Ap - t s gia mdun nh l ng vi tn xut thit k p vi Hnp. Khi = 1; Ap ly trong bng (3.4) tu thuc vo c trng thu a mo ca lng sng s cng thc (3.62) v d thi gian chy t trn sn dc (bng 3.3);
Bng 3.4. Thng s tp trung nc trong sng m Tnh hnh lng sng t thng ngun n cu ra - Sng ng bng n nh, lng sng kh sch, sui khng c nc thng xuyn, chy trong iu kin tng i thun li. - Sng ln trung bnh quanh co, b tc nghn lng sng mc c, c chy khng lng sui khng c nc thng xuyn, ma l dng nc cun theo nhiu si cun, bn ct, lng sng mc c - Sng vng ni, lng sng nhiu , mt nc khng phng, sui chy khng thng xuyn quanh co, lng sng tc nghn 7 9 H s m 11

1 - h s gim nh nh l do ao h, xc nh theo cng thc:

1 =

1 1 + cf a

(3.63)

trong fa- T l din tch ao h % c - H s ph thuc vo lp dng chy l, i vi cc vbg ma lx ko di C = 0,10 trng hp thi gian ma l ngn C = 0.20

d- - xc nh theo h s thu a mo ca sn dc d v vng ma (bng 3.3) trong :

d = ( 1000bc ) 0 ,6 0 m d J d ,3 ( H np ) 0 ,4

(3.64)
73

bc - di bnh qun ca sn dc lu vc

bc =
hoc

F 1,8( L + l )

(3.65)

bc =

1 1,8

(3.66)

trong : L + l- di sng chnh v cc sng nhnh trn lu vc (km); - mt li sng (km/mm2); md - Ly theo bng (3.2); Jd - dc sn dc tnh theo % 1000 L (3.67) s = 1/ 3 1/ 4 mJ F ( H np )1/ 4 m- ly theo bng (3.3);J - dc lng sng chnh, tnh theo %o Cng thc cung gii hn mang cc cu trc ca cng thc c bn c xy dng trn l thuyt cn nguyn dng chy da trn 3 gi thit c bn sau: S hnh thnh dng chy ng nht trn ton lu vc (cng cp nc ng u ), dng chy ln nht xy ra trong trng hp dng chy hon ton Tcn > . Tn sut hin lu lng ln nht ly bng tn sut ma. Cc tham s a, tuy khng cho di dng tng minh, song c gii quyt bng th thut n gin nh ng cong trit gim ma v cc tham s trung gian d s.. cc bng tra cu s dng thun tin. Cng thc ny thch hp cho vic tnh ton dng chy ln nht i vi lu vc nh, khng yu cu chnh xc cao.
Cng thc th tch

Nm 1943 Xklpski a ra cng thc tnh ton lu lng ln nht cho ti nay vn c ng dng rng ri, cng thc c xy dng trn c s sau: 1. Cng thc ch xt cc nhn t ch o nh hng ch yu n dng chy l trong phm vi chnh xc thc dng v cc nhn t c th xc nh mt cch d dng. 2. Coi tn sut ma l tn sut l. 3. Khng nhng xt lu lng nh l m phi xt c qu trnh l, lng l v thi gian l, thi gian nc dng. 4. Tn tht c tnh bng h s dng chy tng lng 5. Theo ti liu thc nghim, c th n gin ho ng qu trnh nc l thnh hai ng cong parabol gp nhau ti nh (H 7.7). Trn c s ta c phng trnh ca nhnh nc ln:

Qt = Qm tt vi 0 t tl;

(3.68)

nhnh nc xung:

t t Qt = Qm x t vi 0 t tx x

(3.69)

74

Q t

Q m t tl t

H n h 3 .1 1 M h n h h o q u trn h l p arab o l

trong : tl, tx nh hnh v; m, n cc ch s lu tha ca nhnh ln, nhnh xung phn nh sai khc ca ng cong m t v ng thng trong nh l Ta Lt p dng cho tam gic. Tng lng l bao gm din tch nhnh nc ln v nhnh nc xung:

t W = Qm t l 0
t tx= tl (trong tx > tl > 1)ta c

tl

x t t dt + Qm x t dt x 0

(3.70)

1 W = Qm t l + m +1 n + 1
hoc

W ( m +1 )( n +1 ) Qm = tl ( n +1 ) + ( m +1 )
Cho f = Ta c

(m + 1)(n + 1) (n + 1) + (m + 1)

Qm =
f c gi l h s hnh dng l

W f tl

(3.71)

Thay:W = y.F = (HT- Ho) F trong : - h s dng chy trn l;

Ht - Lng ma thit k (mm) ca thi khong T (gi) Ho- Lp nc tn tht ban u F- Din tch lu vc (km2)

vo (7.61) ta c:

Qm =

0,276 ( H T H 0 ) fF (m 3 / s ) tl

Nu xt ti trit gim nh l do h ao, m ly vc rng () cng vi nh hng ca nc ngm (Qng) ta c:

75

Qm =

0,278 ( H T H 0 ) fF + Qng (m 3 / s ) tl

(3.72)

Vn dng trong iu kin nc ta, cc thng s ca cng thc (3.66) c xc nh nh sau:

f- h s hnh dng l xc nh theo s phn khu hoc ly theo lu vc tng t.
fa = 3600Qma t la Wa

(3.73)

Qma, Wa, t1a- cc c trng nh l, tng lng l v thi gian l ln ca lu vc tng t; t1- thi gian l ln, theo Xklpxki ly bng thi gian chy t trong sng

tl = t s =

L (gi) 3,6V

(3.74)

L - chiu di sng chnh (km) (3,6 h s i n v) V = 0,7 Vm

(3.75)

Vm - Tc trung bnh ln nht mt ct ca ra.

HT - lng ma thit k tnh theo thi gian chy t Ht = H = ().Hnp

(3.76)

Xc nh theo cc phng php trnh by. Quan h (HT- Ho) th hin quan h ma ro - dng chy. Qng- lu lng nc trong sng trc khi c l, c th ly bng lu lng bnh qun nhiu nm i vi lu vc ln, c th b qua i vi lu vc nh.

= 1. 2 1 = 1 - K1lg (1- fr)

Vi K1- ph thuc vo tnh cht rng r, iu kin t ai thay i t 0,1 0,2 i vi vng rng Vin ng Lin X v 0,2 0,3 rng t tht; 0,3 0,4 rng t pha ct.
fr - T l rng

2 = 1- lg ( 1+ fo + 0,2 fd)
Vi f0, f - t l din tch ao h, m ly
p- h s thay i t 0,6 0,8

Cng thc Xklpxki c din ton trn c s l lun cht ch r rng, xt c c tng lng l v qa trnh l, xt n cc yu t nh hng iu tit ca lu vc qua cc h s trit gim. Cc tham s trong cng thc c th xc nh c nn n c ngha thc tin ln, nhng cng thc cng tn ti mt s vn : coi ng qu trnh l ch l giao ca hai nhnh parabn ch ph hp vi nhng ngn l n, vi dng dng chy khng hon ton (Tcn<<)
Cng thc trit gim

Cng thc trit gim biu th quy lut gim dn ca mdun nh l theo din tch:

qm =
hoc

A Fn

(3.77)1

76

qm = qm =

A (F + C)n

(3.77)2 (3.77)3

A +D (F + C) n

y l loi cng thc kinh nghim, cc tham s c th xc nh t ti liu thc o v tng hp cho cc khu vc, kt cu cng thc n gin nn c ng dng kh rng ri. Tham s A l m un lu lng ln nht khi din tch bng 1km2 cng thc (3.72)1 v cng thc (3.72)2, khi F 0,C =1, A biu th cng cp nc ln nht t sn dc vo li sng. Quy lut trit gim m dun lu lng nh l theo din tch c nhiu tc gi Nga Dbrgieech, Targpxki... tm ngay t sau th k XIX, khi cng thc ch mang tnh cht thun tu kinh nghim. Sau cch mng thng X Nga, Kotrerin phn tch s liu nh l ca 134 trm trn cc sng thuc phn chu u Lin x v ra phng php tng hp a l cc tham s v phn vng cc tham s A,D, n.
h,mm/pht

h h

h h h
a)

f f f f
b)

f f

f f f

f(k f

f f

f f f1 f2 f3

f5 f6 f7

f
f

2
Hnh 3.12

Trn c s l lun ng cong chy ng thi ta c th chng minh quy lut trit gim m un dng chy ln nht theo din tch nh sau: Gi s c qu trnh ma hiu qu vi thi gian cp nc Tcn = S thi khong (hnh. 3.12) Trn ma ri u u trn ba lu vc sng c kch thc khc nhau k cnh nhau (hnh.3.12), vi F1 < F2 <F3. Tin hnh xy dng h thng ng chy ng thi, c cc din tch chy cng thi gian ca c ba lu vc v c c thi gian chy t ca 3 lu vc 1 = 3o; 2 = Tcn = 5o; = 7o. Xt lu lng ln nht hnh thnh trn 3 lu vc (hnh.3.12)
Trng hp 1: 1 < Tcn l dng chy dng hon ton ta c: Qmax1 = h1. F1; qmax = h1

77

Ton b din tch lu vc v mt phn lng cp nc tham gia vo hnh thnh lu lng nh l. Trong h1 l cng cp nc trung bnh ln nht trong khong 1
Trng hp 2. Lu vc 2: = Tcn y vn l trng hp dng chy hon ton nhng lc h2 = h Tcn nn ta c: Qmax2 = hTcn.F2; qmax2 = hTcn

Ton b din tch lu vc v ton b lng cp nc hnh thnh dng chy ln nht.
Trng hp 3. Lu vc 3: > Tcn y l trng hp dng chy khng hon ton,ta c: F Qmax = hTcn. FTcn3; qmax3 = hTcn. Tcn3 F3

Ton b lng cp nc tham gia hnh thnh lu lng nh l, nhng ch c mt phn din tch tham gia. So snh mun nh l qmax ca c ba lu vc ta thy: qmax1 = h1 = hTn. 1 vi 1 =

h1 >1 hTcn

qmax2 = hTcn F qmax3 = hTcn. Tcn = hTcn 3 F vi 3 =

FTcn <1 F

R rng l qmax1 > qmax2 > qmax3 th hin quy lut gim nh mdun lu lng nh l khi din tch tng. Khi lu vc nh hn lu vc ti hn (lu vc ti hn l lu vc c thi gian chy t bng thi gian cp nc = Tcn ) th s trit gim qmax do tnh gim ca cng ma trung bnh ln nht trong thi khong gy ra, ta thy qmax s tng dn n gii hn l cng cp nc ln nht hmax khi 0 hmax gi l mun c bn ca dng chy ln nht tc l mun nh l ca mt lu vc v cng b F 0, chnh l A Khi lu vc ln hn lu vc ti hn ( >Tcn) th s trit gim mun dnh l do s trit gim t s

FTcn F

<1 gy nn, 3 cng nh th din tch lim q max = h max

t0

cng ln, chnh lch nhau gia v Tcn cng ln. Khi tng hp quan h qmax = f(F) t ti liu thc o nhiu tc gi nhn thy qmax tng ln khi din tch lu vc gim; nhng ti mt din tch no th qmax khng tng na m nm ngang v ngi ta a thm thng s c vo quy lut trit gim ng cho mi cp din tch.

qm =

A ( F + c) n

iu hon ton th thuc vo tnh cht ca ma, khi gim nh, h tng ln nhng ti mt gii hn no d cng cp nc tr nn n nh, h khng tng theo khi 0. Nh ta bit A l mdun c bn ca dng chy ln nht nn cng thc trn c th vit di dng tng qut.

78

qm =

A ( F + c )n

Khmax ( F + c )n
3 2

= Khmax (3.78)

qmax = K a max trong : A - mun c bn ca dng chy ln nht (m /s, km );

hmax- cng cp nc ln nht (mm/ph, mm/h); amax- cng ma ln nht

- h s dng chy l
K- h s i n v (K = 16,67 khi amax tnh bng mm/ph, K = 0,278 khi amax tnh bng mm/h.)

- h s trit gim ca cng chy ln nht y.

1 ( F + c) n

T cng thc (3.78) ta thy cng thc trit gim lu lng ln nht cng c dng cng thc c bn v l mi lin h gia cng thc l lun v cng thc kinh nghim. Ngy nay cng thc trit gim c kh nhiu, chng c coi l nhm ln nht trong cc cng thc tnh ton lu lng ln nht, b ngoi chng c v rt khc nhau, nhng s khc bit gia chng tht ra l ch cc phng php xc nh cc tham s v vic xt thm cc nhn t nh hng. Tt c cc cng thc loi ny u c quy v dng chung nht nh sau:

q mp = K

A p Fn

trong qmp - mun nh l ng vi tn sut thit k (m3/s km2); K- H s i n v; A- mdun c bn ng vi tn sut gc no (theo quy phm QP.TL.C- 6-77) ly tn sut 10%; - h s xc nh s iu tit ca lu vc (h, m ly, rng); p - H s chuyn tn sut.(Bng 3.5) Trong cng thc trit gim th thng s A ng vai tr quan trng, s khc nhau ng k nht trong cc cng thc ny l s xc nh thng s A. Vic tnh A bng cch ngoi suy quan h q = f(F) khi F 0 khng c tin cy cho lm v nh phn tch, trong phm vi din tch nh quy lut trit gim qmax khng th hin r, do quan h q= f(F) kh phn tn, v vy ngi ta quan tm nhiu n phng php xc nh thng s A.
Bng 3.5 .H s chuyn tn sut p Lu vc 20% Sng Sng Thao SngL,Gm, sngCu,sng Thng Sng vng Qung Bnh,Qung Ninh Sng M sng C 0,851 0,851 0,810 0,824 0,838 10% 1 1 1 1 1 H s p ng vi cc tn sut 5% 1,162 1,210 1,210 1,195 1,171 2% 1,353 1,428 1,428 1,429 1,391 1% 1,539 1,636 1,636 1,590 1,590 0,5% 1,666 1,840 1,840 1,840 1,750

Mt s tc gi cho rng A l mun c bn ca dng chy ln nht nu c th xc nh theo cng thc:

A = K amax

Thay amax bng cng ma trung bnh ln nht trong mt thi on c nh no ,

79

Xklpki ngh thay amax bng cng ma trung bnh ln nht trong thi khong 1 gi ta c A = K A60 R rng cch tnh A nh trn ch ph hp khi thi gian chy t trn sn dc khong 60 pht, cn thi gian chy t sn dc khc th tr s A tnh theo cng thc trn c th thin ln hoc thin nh. Mt s tc gi thay m duyn c bn A bng mun nh l ca mt cp din tch c nh Fc no , din tch c gi l din tch gc, Lin x din tch gc c chn l 200 km2, nc ta quy phm QP.TL.C- 6-77 s dng din tch 100km2 do cng thc trong quy phm c dng:

100 Qmp = q100 p F F

(3.79)

trong Qmp - lu lng nh l ng vi tn sut thit k (m3/s); q100- mun nh l ng vi tn sut 10% quy ton v din tch lu vc thng nht 100 km2 ly trn bn q100 10% (l/skm2); n- h s trit gim mun nh l theo bn phn khu; p- theo bng (3.5) Vic thay th A bng qFc c nhng u im sau: Tham s qFc c xc nh khng phi da trn vic ngoi suy quan h q= f(F) nh tham s A m da trn ti liu thc o, do ng tin cy hn, n t ph thuc vo ch s trit gim n, vic v bn ng mc qFc c c s hn v ng tin cy. Do tnh trit gim m uyn nh l lu vc nh khng th hin r rng nn trong quy phm quy nh cng thc trn ch s dng vi din tch ln hn 100km2
3.3.5 Tnh ton ti nguyn nc ma cn

Lu lng nc b nht l mt trong nhng c trng thu vn c bn, thng c s dng nhiu trong cc qui hoch xy dng, ti tiu, s dng nc trong sinh hot v bo v mi trng. Dng chy b nht l ch tiu iu chnh s phn phi dng chy trong nm c bit l i vi cc cng trnh i hi s vn hnh lin tc nh cng nghip nng, thu in v.v.. Nh vy cc thng tin v lu lng nc cc tiu c i hi p ng nhu cu nh gi dng chy t nhin ca sng ngi cng nh nh gi mc hot ng kinh t qua dng chy sng ngi. Cc c trng tnh ton ch yu ca dng chy b nht l dng chy trung bnh thng hoc dng chy trung bnh 30 ngy, thm ch dng chy trung bnh ngy m quan trc vo thi k kit. Nu thi k kit trn sng ngn (t hn hai thng) hoc khng lin tc (ma kit xen ln ma l) nn kh c thng no khng c l khi ta chn 30 ngy lin tc tnh c trng lu lng b nht. lm c iu ta dng cc ng qu trnh nc cc nm quan trc chn mt thi k quan trc c 30 ngy nc kit lin tc lm thi k tnh ton. Khi ngay c vic chn mt thi k tnh ton 30 ngy cng gp kh khn th phi s dng thi k ngn hn nhng khng ngn hn 23-25 ngy trnh nh hng ca l trong tnh ton. Dng chy trung bnh 30 ngy cc tiu lun nh hn dng chy trung bnh thng theo lch bi vy nu hiu ca chng khng sai khc qu 10% th nn s dng dng chy trung bnh thng. Nu s dng ng tn sut th dng chy b nht ng vi tn sut t 75-97%.
Tnh ton dng chy b nht khi c s liu quan trc thu vn

Khi tnh ton dng chy b nht ca sng ngi c quan trc thu vn v dng chy, di chui c coi l xc nh xc sut tnh ton nm ca lu lng nc cc tiu nu nh sai s lch qun phng tng i ca chui quan trc n khng vt qu 15%.

80

Khi quan trng nht l cc nm nc t hay nhm nm theo sng tng t. H s bin i dng chy cc tiu cc sng khng cn v khng ng bng nm trong khong 0,2-0,4. iu cho php s dng tnh ton cc chui c t 8-15 nm. Tuy nhin nu h s bin i vo khong 0,7-1 i hi phi ko di chui quan trc ti 20-40 nm. Lu lng nc b nht vi tn sut tnh ton c xc nh bng vic s dng ba tham s Q, Cv , Cs nh xc nh vi chun dng chy nm. Gi tr dng chy trung bnh ca lu lng l gi tr trung bnh s hc tnh ring cho tng ma. Khi khng k chui c tnh ton vi 30 gi tr hay t hn (23-25 gi tr). Vic xy dng cc ng cong m bo dng chy b nht c tin hnh ring cho tng thi k theo cc qui tc nh i vi dng chy nm. Nu gi tr dng chy b nht c nhng gi tr bng 0 do nc sng ngi kh cn th tham s c trng ca chui c th ly theo phng php gii gii tch Alecxyev vi ng cong m bo thc nghim c lm trn. Nu gi tr n vt qu gi tr cho php, cn phi tin hnh ko di chui bng phng php tng t. Khi chn sng tng t trc ht cn ch n tnh ng b v cc iu kin thu a cht ca cc lu vc ang xt. thc hin iu cn nghin cu cc m t a cht v bn vng nghin cu cng nh bn vng xc nh dng chy cc tiu xy dng cho lnh th. V mt iu quan trng na khi chn sng tng t l cc sng phi c nh gi cng mt hng theo kch c (din tch lu vc) hoc s chnh lch i lng l t nht. Khi thiu c sng tng t v n > 40% th cn xt chui nh l thiu ti liu quan trc.
Tnh ton dng chy b nht khi khng c ti liu quan trc thu vn

Tnh ton lu lng nc b nht vi m bo cho trc i vi sng ngi cha nghin cu trong trng hp ti liu thc t khng p ng tnh ton theo cc cng thc xc sut thng k cn phi a v mt trong cc phng php sau y: 1. Xc nh cc c trng cn tm ca dng chy b nht vi vic s dng cc quan trc ri rc v dng chy v ti liu lu vc sng tng t. 2. Xc nh cc gi tr tnh ton dng chy trn c s khi qut ho qua ba tham s: chun dng chy b nht, h s bin i v h s bt i xng theo ti liu ca cc sng c nghin cu. 3. S dng cc h s chuyn i t dng chy b nht ca mt tn sut m bo xc nh (cho trc) v m bo dng chy cn tm. Phng php th ba ngy nay c ng dng rng ri trong thc t qui hoch xy dng. Khi dng chy b nht vi sut m bo cho trc l lu lng nc 30 ngy b nht ng 80 % sut m bo. Khng ph thuc vo phng php tnh ton cc c trng cn thit ca dng chy b nht ( chun hay l sut m bo dng chy cho trc) c xc nh bi hai phng php c bn: theo bn ng ng dng chy hay theo cc mi ph thuc gia dng chy b nht vi cc iu kin a l t nhin chnh. Mi phng php u c gii hn s dng nht nh: bn dng cho cc lu vc sng trung bnh, cn cc quan h vng: sng nh. Sng nh l cc sng hon ton khng c nui dng bng nc ngm. Kch thc lu vc c coi l nh (kch thc gii hn) c xc nh bng cch xy dng mi quan h gia mun dng chy b nht 30 ngy vi din tch lu vc.Cc quan h nh vy c xy dng cho cc vng ng nht v iu kin a l t nhin (v tr a l, a hnh, m v.v..). i vi vng tha m c din tch lu vc ln hn 20 km2 v lu vc ln hn 50 km2 trong vng m bin ng s dng cng thc:

81

Qmin = a ( F + f ) n
vi Qmin- lu lng b nht 30 ngy; F - din tch lu vc sng ngi; f - din tch trung bnh ca vng khng c dng chy hoc din tch trung bnh lu vc ngm; a, n - tham s c trng cho m ca vng cho v cng thay i dng chy khi tng din tch lu vc. Khi din tch lu vc nghin cu nh hn din tch lu vc trung bnh vng th dng chy b nht nhn gi tr 0. Cng thc ny khng dng c cho vng b chi phi bi s iu tit do ao h hoc c hin tng karst. Theo cc mi quan h ph thuc c cc phng php sau. 1. xc nh gi tr trung bnh nhiu nm (chun) m un dng chy ngy m b nht s dng phng trnh:

M nd = aM 30 b
vi M nd - m un dng chy ngy m trung bnh b nht (l/skm2); M 30 - m un dng chy 30 ngy m b nht xc nh theo cc phng php tnh ton cho lu vc va v nh; a v b - cc tham s xc nh theo cc quan h vng. 2. xc nh lu lng ngy m b nht ng sut m bo 80% s dng phng trnh:

Q80% nd = kQ80%th

(3.80)

Q80%th - lu lng b nht 30 ngy (thng) ng vi tn sut m bo 80%; k - h s chuyn i, xc nh theo bng quan h vng.

Tn ti mi quan h:

Q p = Q80%

(3.81)

vi Qp - lu lng nc ngy m (thng) b nht sut m bo tnh ton; - h s khng ph thuc vo ma xc nh v din tch lu vc. Ngoi vic xc nh dng chy b nht cn nghin cu c thi k kh cn ca sng ngi nh l mt ti liu rt cn thit cho ngi s dng tin liu trc.
3.4 PHNG PHP M HNH HO 3.4.1 Phn loi m hnh ton thu vn

M hnh ho - l mt phng php khoa hc y hiu lc gip con ngi xm nhp su vo bn cht ca nhng hin tng t nhin hoc x hi phc tp. Mc ch m hnh ho l to dng hin tng sao cho thng qua vic nghin cu n, con ngi thu nhn c nhng thng tin mi cn thit. Nu vic dng hin tng c thc hin bi tp hp cc h thc ton hc (phng trnh - bt ng thc, iu kin lgic, ton t...) chng ta c m hnh ton hin tng . Trong 30 nm gn y, din ra s pht trin su rng vic m hnh ho nhng hin tng v h thng t nhin khc nhau. M hnh ho dng chy cng nm trong tro lu . nhiu nc hon thnh cng vic s v xy dng cc m hnh ton dng chy. Vn m hnh ho dng chy c tho lun trn nhiu hi ngh quc t. S xut bn v m hnh ho dng chy ln n con s vi trm. Trong nhng vn then cht ca tnh ton thu vn l lun lun nh gi lng dng chy v mt l do no khng trc tip o c c. D on chnh xc iu ny nng cao ng k hiu qu hot ng ca cng trnh. im chung ca cc vn nu trn l nh thu vn lun lun phi nh gi " c th ch i nhng g t nhin?" Tm li, ta cn phi m hnh ho nhng hin tng thu vn.
82

M hnh ho dng chy - l ch to dng chy, cn m hnh ton- quy trnh, cng ngh ca vic ch to . Cn khng nh mt iu:" M hnh ton khng th no trng hp hon ton vi m hnh thc, (hin tng)". Do vy, m hnh ton hon ton khng ph thuc n tr vo hin tng nghin cu. iu ny ct ngha v sao trong vi chc nm gn y ra i hng lot m hnh dng chy cng m phng mt hin tng.
3.4.2 Phn loi m hnh dng chy

Trn hng trm m hnh hnh thnh dng chy, hin hnh c th thng nht tch ra hai loi m hnh phn bit: m hnh tt nh v m hnh ngu nhin. S phn bit ny cng nm ngang trong mc ch m hnh ho: Ch to chui dng chy trong tng lai phc v bi ton thit k hay bi ton qun l - iu khin h thng thu li.
M hnh ngu nhin

Quan nin xc sut ln u c Hazen a vo trong thu vn a vo t nm 1914. Ngy nay, dng chy c coi l mt qu trnh ngu nhin. Vi quan im ny, trong cu trc cc m hnh ngu nhin khng h c cc nhn t hnh thnh dng chy, v nguyn liu xy dng m hnh chnh l bn thn chui dng chy qu kh, phi di c bc l ht bn tnh ca mnh. S tht, dng chy l hin tng b tc ng ca nhiu nhn t. Tng nhn t dng chy n lt mnh li l hm ca v vn cc nhn t khc m quy lut bin i ca chng con ngi cha m t c. Do vy, trong kt cc cui cng, tng hp ca v vn cc mi quan h tng h phc tp, dng chy biu hin l mt hin tng ngu nhin.
M hnh tt nh

Mc d bn cht ca dng chy l ngu nhin, cng tha nhn tn ti nhng giai on hnh thnh dng chy, trong nhng thnh phn tt nh ng vai tr ch yu. Qu trnh hnh hnh mt trn l do ma ro l mt th d minh ho. Nh vy, nu nhng m hnh ngu nhin l m hnh to chui dng chy th m hnh tt nh to mi quan h nhn qu gia dng chy v cc nhn t hnh thnh dng chy. Trong vic m hnh ho s hnh thnh dng chy c hai cch tip cn:
M hnh ton dng chy

M hnh tt nh

M hnh ngu nhin

M hnh thng s tp trung

M hnh thng s phn phi

M hnh hp en

M hnh quan nim

M hnh vt l - ton

Hnh 3.13 . S phn loi m hnh ton dng chy.

M hnh ng lc-ngu nhin

1. Cch tip cn vt l - ton: Bi ton bin i ma thnh dng chy c th c gii cho cc khu vc nghin cu theo cch sau. Trn c s phn tch ti liu quan trc ma v dng chy cho nhiu

83

lu vc thuc vng a l - kh hu khc nhau, tin hnh nghin cu chi tit cc hin tng vt l to nn qu trnh hnh thnh dng chy v xy dng nhng quy lut tng ng, c biu din di dng phng trnh, cc cng thc ton v.v.. Ni chung, cc phng trnh, cc cng thc u ch l cc cch biu din ba quy lut chung nht ca vt cht trong trng hp ring c th: a) Bo ton vt cht (phng trnh lin tc hoc cn bng nc), b) Bo ton nng lng (phng trnh cn bng ng lc hay phng trnh chuyn ng th hin nguyn l Dalambera), c) Bo ton ng lng ( phng trnh ng lng). Sau , c cc c trng a hnh- thu vn mo lu vc, m ban u, qu trnh ma cng cc c trng kh tng, c th trc tip bin i ngay qu trnh ma thnh qu trnh dng chy mt ct ca ra lu vc theo cc phng trnh v cc cng thc c thit lp. Trong trng hp tng qut, nhng cng thc c biu din di dng cc phng trnh vi phn o hm ring th: c trng a hnh - thy a mo lu vc ng vai tr cc thng s phng trnh (cc hng s hoc trong trng hp chung s bin i theo thi gian) qu trnh ma cho chng ta iu kin bin, cn trng thi lu vc ban u. H Saint - Venant cng vi nhng phng php s c th gii n cho ta mt minh ho v cch tip cn ny trong vic m hnh ho giai on cui cng trong s hnh thnh dng chy- giai on chy trn b mt lu vc v trong mng li sng. Lnh vc ny ca m hnh ho dng chy c nhng c th v phng php nghin cu ring bit khng th thiu c nhng ti liu nghin cu c bn cng vi nhng ti liu nghin cu rt chi tit v tn km v a hnh, v cc c trng thu a mo khu vc, v cc c trng din bin ca ma theo khng gian... Khc t s dng b ti liu chi tit v a hnh - a mo cng cc c trng khc v lu vc, chng ta ch c mt cch coi lu vc nh l mt h ng lc. V trong vic m hnh ho s hnh thnh dng chy s dng cch tip cn thng s ho.
2. Cch tip cn thng s ho l cch tip cn th trng da trn vic s dng ti liu quan trc ng b gia ma v dng chy. iu ny cho php la chn cc thng s ca cc biu tc ton hc theo ti liu o c.

Trong , t nhng nim vt l (cn nguyn) s xy dng cu trc chung m hnh, cha hng lot cc thng s cng cc gi tr ban u ca chng c gng xut pht t nhng ngha vt l. Sau theo ti liu quan trc ma - dng chy ca nhiu trn l trn mt lu vc c th, tin hnh xc nh b thng s. Nhng m hnh c thng s tp trung n lt mnh li c chia lm hai loi: M hnh "hp en" v m hnh " quan nim".
M hnh " hp en". "Hp en" thut ng dng trong iu khin hc ch nhng h thng m cu to v cc thng s ca n hon ton khng r rng, ch c th c xc nh trn c s nhng thng tin vo - ra. Trong thc t sn xut, i khi xut hin tnh hung khi cn xy dng nhng quan h ma - dng chy cng ch c nhng quan trc u vo (ma) u ra ( dng chy) h thng. Nhng trng hp ny buc phi coi lu vc l mt "hp en". Tnh trng thiu thng tin v lu vc ch cho php xy dng nhng m hnh th s nht, v khi xy dng chng ngi ta cng hon ton khng c thng tin g v lu vc ngoi vic coi n l mt h thng tuyn tnh v dng. Do vy, trong thu vn: m hnh "hp en" ng ngha vi m hnh tuyn tnh - dng.

Lp m hnh " hp en " xut hin kh sm vo thi k u ca s pht trin m hnh thu vn tt nh. Ngy nay lp m hnh ny ch cn tn ti vi t cch m t mt giai on cui trong s hnh

84

thnh dng chy - giai on chy: giai on bin i lp cp nc trn lu vc thnh dng chy ca ra.
M hnh quan nim Qu trnh bin i ma thnh dng chy - mt qu trnh phi tuyn phc tp gm nhiu giai on. Cng vi s pht trin ca l thuyt hnh thnh dng chy, m hnh quan nim ra i. C th nh ngha m hnh quan nim l loi m hnh c m t bi mt tp hp cc quan h ton hc, tng quan h biu din tng mt ring ca qu trnh, nhng kt hp li chng m hnh ho c qu trnh trn vn. Vi s xut hin ca my tnh in t vo gia nhng nm 50, lp m hnh "hp en" hon ton li bc trc nhng m hnh "quan nim" cho php m t y hn, chnh xc hn qu trnh " ma -dng chy" c hnh thnh t hng lot cc qu trnh thnh phn ma, bc hi, in trng, thm thc vt, nc thm, chy mt, st mt, ngm... Ngy nay, c th thy hng lot cc m hnh quan nim rt pht trin nh m hnh SSARR (M), TANK (Nht), STANFORD - 4 (M), CLS (), GMC (Lin X), SMART (Bc Ailen), GIRARD - 1( Php).v.v... M hnh ng lc - ngu nhin

Trong nhng nm gn y xut hin nhng xu hng lin kt cch tip cn tt nh v ngu nhin vo vic m t cc hin tng thu vn. Vic xt tnh ngu nhin ca cc qu trnh trong m hnh tt nh din ra theo 3 phng hng: 1. Xt sai s tnh ton nh mt qu trnh ngu nhin v tr thnh mt thnh phn trong cc m hnh tt nh. 2. S dng cc m t xc sut - thng k (lut phn b) ca cc tc ng kh tng - thu vn vi t cch l hm vo ca m hnh tt nh. 3. Xt cc quy lut phn b xc sut theo khng gian ca tc ng kh tng - thu vn vo lu vc. Vi nhng t tng ny hnh thnh nhng m hnh ng lc - ngu nhin. Do s phc tp ca vn , lp m hnh ny mi ch giai on u ca s khai sinh. S phn loi m hnh nu trn c trnh by nh trn hnh 3.13
3.4.3 Mt s m hnh tt nh M hnh Kalinhin - Miliukp - Nash

Nm 1958, khi nghin cu s lan truyn sng x h lu cc trm thu in, G.P.Kalinhin v P.I.Miliukov chia on sng ra n on nh di tn gi "cc on sng c trng". Cc on sng c trng c chn c di sao cho tn ti mi quan h n tr tuyn tnh gia lng nc trong n vi lu lng chy ra. Nh vy thc cht "on sng c trng" l mt b tuyn tnh, m c ch hot ng c m t bi:

dWi = Qi 1 Qi dt Wi = i Qi
trong i - thng s mang ngha thi gian chy truyn trn "on sng chy truyn c trng th i". Hai phng trnh trn tng ng vi mt phng trnh:

i
d + 1 vi ai = i, bi = 1 dt

dQi + Qi = Qi 1 dt

Nh vy ton t Ai trong trng hp ny c dng:

Ai = i

85

Mc ni tip n "on sng c trng" tng t nhau, phng trnh (10.17) tr thnh: ( i d + 1 ) n Q = Q0 vi i=1 v bi=1; dt

Cc nghim ring ca phng trnh thun nht c dng:

Qi (t ) = t i 1e

v hm nh hng tr thnh:

1 t P (t ) = ( n 1)! 1 1

n 1

(3.82)

Cng thc tng t cng c Nash tm ra khi gi thit rng lu vc c cu to t n b cha tuyn tnh vi quan h n tr - tuyn tnh gia th tch nc v lu lng. Nh phn tch, hm nh hng Kalinhin - Miliucp - Nash c hai thng s n v l trng hp ring ca hm nh hng 3 thng s. Vic a thm thng s b vo lm nh hng "do" hn, ngoi vic d thch nghi vi vic xt tc dng iu tit ca lng sng cn kh nng xt c cn cn nc (cc tn tht bc hi, mt nc...).
ng lu lng n v

Phng php ln u tin do Sherman ngh vo nm 1932, sau ny c nhiu tc gi khc pht trin v hon thin. Ni dung ca phng php da trn 3 lun im: a. ng qu trnh lu lng, c hnh thnh t lng ma hiu qu 1 in (25,4 mm) ri u trn khp khu vc trong mt n v thi gian, l c trng khng i ca mt khu vc (ng qu trnh c gi l ng lu lng n v). b. ng qu trnh lu lng, c hnh thnh t n in ri u trn khp lu vc trong mt n v thi gian, c th nhn c bng cch nhn tung ng lu lng n v vi n. c. ng qu trnh lu lng, c hnh thnh t lng ma hiu qu ri u trn khp lu vc trong 1 s n v thi gian, c th nhn c bng cch cng cc ng qu trnh c hnh thnh do lng ma tng n v thi gian. Phn tch 3 lun im trn thy rng chng hon ton tng ng vi nguyn l xp chng v vic tnh dng chy ti mt ct ca ra t qu trnh ma hiu qu vi iu kin n v thi gian t 0 hon ton theo biu thc:

Q(t ) = P(t )q( )d

t0

trong P(t-) - ng lu lng n v; q() - qu trnh ma hiu qu. Nh vy, thc cht ng qu trnh lu lng n v l hnh nh ca hm nh hng trong m hnh "hp en" v chng c phn bit vi cc m hnh "hp en" khc bi tnh c o ring bit trong vic xc nh hm nh hng thng qua ng lu lng n v. Cch n gin nht xc nh ng lu lng n v l chn nhng trn l do lng ma ri u trong mt n v thi gian, ri chia tng tung cho tng lng l.
3.4.4 Nguyn l xy dng m hnh "quan nim"

Cch tip cn trong vic xy dng m hnh "quan nim' l cch tip cn thng s ho: 1. Cho dy cc s liu quan trc v ma X(t) v dng chy mt ct ca ra lu vc Q(t). 2. Cn tm ton t chuyn i tt nht t ma ra dng chy.
86

Cu trc ca ton t cng cc thng s ca n, ni chung l khng c sn. Tuy nhin, trong hc thuyt dng chy c nhng c s l thuyt v thc nghim v s hnh thnh dng chy ni chung v trn 1 s lu vc c th. iu dn n hnh thnh 1 s thng tin v cc lp ton t cn thit cng phm vi bin i cc thng s ca chng (l thuyt thm, tch ng, nh hng ca rng, dng chy sn dc, chy ngm v.v...) Xy dng m hnh gm 2 giai on: thit lp cu trc m hnh v xc nh thng s m hnh
Xy dng cu trc m hnh

y l khu xc nh nhng quan h ton hc m t din bin hin tng. Trong cng vic ny, nh m hnh phi rt am hiu hin tng, hiu r nhng tc ng chnh n din bin hin tng v c tr tng tng phong ph khi qut ho hin tng. Khi thit lp cu trc m hnh hnh thnh dng chy, cn phc tho s khi v tng qu trnh thnh phn cng s tc ng tng h gia chng. Trong m hnh STANFORD - 4, nc c th c trao i theo hai chiu: i xung v i ln. Vi mt s m hnh khc, nc ch c mt chiu i xung (m hnh SSARR). Nt chung ca cc m hnh quan nim l u s dng cc b cha m t cc dng tn tht v iu tit khc nhau, do vy, phng trnh tnh ton ch o trong m hnh l phng trnh cn bng nc. Vic a ra b cha ngm vo m hnh cho php m hnh m t c c phn dng chy ma kit. Ni chung, s hnh thnh dng chy trn cc lu vc c th rt khc nhau, do vy khng c mt m hnh vn nng no dng cho tt c mi trng hp.Nh thit k m hnh phi lm vng hin tng c th c s ci bin cn thit. Ni chung, khi thit lp m hnh hnh thnh dng chy cn cp v gii quyt nhng vn sau: 1. Vn ma trn lu vc (hm vo): c cn hiu chnh s liu ma ti cc im (bng thng hoc my t ghi)? Nu cn, cch hiu chnh. C cn hiu s phn phi khng u ca ma theo khng gian? Nu cn, cch hiu chnh? 2. Vn tn tht do thm thc vt, do tch ng trn mt lu vc, do thm, cch xt tc ng ca m ban u. Nhng gi thit no v din bin qu trnh thm, c xt n c tnh ca tng th nhng? Nu c, nh th no? 3. C xt n tn tht do bc hi? nu c, cch xt (vi chi tit no xt n cc yu t kh tng: tc gi, nhit khng kh, thiu ht bo ho v.v...). 4. Cch tch qu trnh dng chy ngm ra khi dng chy tng cng ti mt ct ca ra lu vc? 5. C xt dng chy st mt(nu c, cch xt). C xt lng nc hi quy t tng th nhng vo sng? 6. C xt tnh hung dng chy khng phi c hnh thnh ln ton b din tch lu vc (c nhng ch trng khp kn)nu c, bng cch tnh din tch hiu qu? 7. Cch xt chuyn ng sng l trong mng sng-s giao thoa ca sng l trn dng chnh vi cc sng nhnh, s bt sng l v.v.. 8. Bng cch no xt c mt b phn trn ng qu trnh lu lng c gy ra bi lng nc tn li ca trn l trc v.v.. Gii quyt nhng vn nu trn, thit lp nhng cng thc m t qu trnh, ng thi lun lun phi suy xt: Nhng i lng no trong cc cng thc cho di dng nhng gi tr s xc nh, nhng i lng no c th c tnh theo nhng cng thc vt l v nhng i lng no ng vai tr thng s cn phi xc nh nh nhng ti liu quan trc vo - ra. Ch sau khi gii quyt nhng vn

87

nu trn mi c th thit lp mt cu trc no ca m hnh. Cn ch rng m hnh ton dng chy l mt chnh th thng nht, cc qu trnh thnh phn lin quan vi nhau mt cch mt thit v hu c, do vy xt s nh hng ca mt qu trnh no n dng chy ch c th lm c sau khi xy dng trn vn m hnh. Ngoi ra cc nhn t hnh thnh dng chy rt bin ng theo khng gian, c c ch hot ng v s liu quan trc ca mt qu trnh no ti mt im, khng khi no c th chuyn rp khun cho ton khu vc. Vai tr ca tng qu trnh thnh phn bin i t im ny sang im khc, t lu vc ny sang lu vc khc. iu ny dn n vic la chn cu trc m hnh quan nim mang tnh m mm-cm nhn. iu ny cng ct ngha v sao vic lp ghp nhng kt qu nghin cu hin i v tng qu trnh thnh phn (ma, thm, bc hi, im trng, dng mt, st mt, ngm v.v...)ca nhiu tc gi khc nhau hng c 1 m hnh tt tht bi. iu ny cng cho thy v sao cc m hnh quan nim khc xa nhau c v cu trc ln s liu ban u s dng. Vic xy dng m hnh mang y tnh sng to cng vi vic am hiu tng tn hin tng trn tng lu vc c th.
Xc nh thng s m hnh

Cc m hnh thng s tp trung u cha ng nhiu thng s. Cn xc nh cch ny trn c s nhng ti liu quan trc vo-ra ca h thng. V mt ton hc, c hai phng trnh thit lp thng s m hnh: phng php ti u ho v phng php gii bi ton ngc. Phng php thng dng trong thc t hin nay l kh-sai c coi l phng n th s nht ca phng php ti u ho
1. Phng php ti u ho. y l bi ton thun, cho bit thng s vo v b thng s m hnh, cn xc nh hm ra ca h thng. Thc cht ti u ho l bi ton iu khin h thng. Mc tiu iu khin l hm ra phi ng vi tn hiu o c, cn bin iu khin l chnh vc t thng s m hnh.

Cn phi xc nh biu thc ton hc ca mc tiu:

K =

[Q (t ) Q (t , a ) ]
n T

fQ (t ) dt min

(3.83 )

i =1 0

trong : n - tng s trn l, T - thi gian mt trn l,

~ Q(t ), Q (t , a ) - cc qu trnh o c v tnh ton

a=(a1, a2, am) - vc t thng s m hnh. Hm f(Q(t) c a vo nhm tng t trng nhng tung l ln (nhl). Cn xc nh vc t a hm mc tiu K t cc tiu. Ngy nay c nhiu thut ton ti u mnh tm cc tr ca nhng phim hm mc tiu phc tp. Mt trong nhng thut ton thng dng l thut ton Rosenbroc. Nhng y, bn thn nhng phng php ton hc khng gii quyt s chnh xc ca nhng thng s cng nh s thnh cng ca qu trnh ti u ho. Mt ln na, chng ta thy ni ln vai tr cng nhng kinh nghim v s hiu bit hin tng vt l ca ngi thit lp m hnh. Sau y trnh by nhng kinh nghim c tnh nguyn tc trong vic iu hnh qu trnh ti u. a, Nguyn tc la chn s liu. Trong qu trnh ti u, mt s thng s t ra khng nh hng g ti hm mc tiu. Nguyn nhn chnh ca hin tng ny l trong nhng s liu dng ti u, cha c nhng s liu m vai tr ca thng s ny hay thng s khc t ra r rt. khc phc tnh hnh ny, nhng s liu dng trong qu trnh ti u phi bao gm nhng trn l c iu kin hnh thnh ht sc khc nhau: ln, nh, dng. chnh xc vic xc nh thng s ph thuc nhiu vo chnh xc, mc i biu v khi lng ca nhng ti liu ban u. Nhng trn l khng tin cy s gy ra nhng sai lch ng k cho

88

tng thng s ring bit. Do vy, ti u phi chn nhng trn l c tin cy cao nht. b. Nguyn tc tin hnh: c hai cch tin hnh qu trnh ti u: Cch 1: Ti u ring r tng trn l, c cc b thng s khc nhau, sau ly b thng s trung bnh cho tt c cc trn. Cch 2: Tin hnh ti u ng thi cho nhiu trn l, c mt b thng s chung cho tt c cc trn l. Kinh nghim cho thy hai cch ti u ny cho kt qu rt khc nhau. Vi tng trn l, lun lun tm c mt thng s thch hp. Do c th ring ca tng trn l, mt s thng s c th b sai lch. iu ny dn n cc b thng s ca cc trn l rt khc nhau. m bo ngha ca cc thng s, m bo bn vng, n nh ca chng, ti u phi s dng nhiu trn l. Kinh nghim cho thy s liu dng ti u khng t hn 5 qu trnh dng chy khc nhau. c. Nguyn tc phc tp ho dn m hnh, do gio s Kuchmen ra. Thc cht ca n l vic ti u ho c tin hnh theo tng giai on. Trong b thng s m hnh, trng lng ca tng thng s khng ng u nhau, tnh cht ca cc thng s cng khng ging nhau, c thng s nh hng ti nh, cp thng s ch ng hng n tng lng, c thng s nh hng ti nhnh ln, c thng s nh hng ti nhnh xung. Tht sai lm nu a tt c nhng thng s vo ti u cng mt lc. Vic phc tp ho dn cu trc m hnh c bt u bng vic th nghim m hnh n gin nht, bao gm cc thng s ti thiu. Trn c s ti u c cc thng s , m hnh s c chnh xc ho nh vic a dn thm cc thng s mi, m t chnh xc thm hin tng. tng giai on,cc thng s c ti u mt cch c lp trn c s cc thng s ca giai on trc nhn nhng tr s ban u bng cc tr s c ti u. 2. Phng php gii bi ton ngc. y l bi ton bit cc thng tin vo - ra ca h thng, cn xc nh b thng s m hnh. Tnh cht ca bi ton ny l phi chnh, c ngha l nhng sai s khng ln lm ca s liu ban u (dng gii bi ton ngc) s dn n nhng sai s rt ln ca nhng i lng cn xc nh. Th d khi gii bi ton thun, nhng c trng ca lu vc ( dc, sn dc, kh nng thm ca t, thm thc vt, a hnh b mt lu vc v.v) rt bin ng theo khng gian v chng cn phi c trung bnh ho theo mt cch no v cch trung bnh ho ny d sao cng t nh hng ti kt qu tnh ton - dng chy mt ct ca ra lu vc. Khi gii bi ton ngc, nhng thay i nh trong s liu ban u (qu trnh dng chy) c th tng ng vi nhng thay i rt ln ca cc c trng lu vc, do vy cng nh hng rt ln n cc thng s m hnh. Trong nhng nm 70, nhng nh ton hc X vit Tikhnp, Lavrenchev, Ivanov xy dng l thuyt bi ton phi chnh. Nhng cng trnh ton hc ny mi ch dng vic gii phng trnh Volte bc mt. Gio s Kuchmen vn dng l thuyt ny trong vic xc nh cc thng s ca hm nh hng Kalinhin-Miulikp-Nash. Nh vy, l thuyt ton phi chnh mi ch p dng c trong m hnh tuyn tnh n gin nht, vn dng trong nhng m hnh n gin quan nim, nhng thnh tu trn mi nht ca l thuyt ny cha p ng c.

M hnh SSARR
M hnh SSARR do Roc-c-ut (Rockwood) xut t nm 1956. Khi xy dng m hnh ny ngi ta quan nim rng h thng sng ngi d phc tp cng ch gm cc thnh phn c bn sau: - Cc lu vc sng nh - Cc h cha t nhin v nhn to - Cc on sng

89

Do ngi ta xy dng m hnh ton hc cho tng loi, sau cng tp hp li ta s c m hnh ton hc ca c h thng sng. Cc m hnh ton hc thnh phn u s dng hai phng trnh c bn l phng trnh lin tc v phng trnh tr lng. Phng trnh lin tc l: 1/2(I1 + I2)t - 1/2(Q1 + Q2)t = S2 - S1 (3.84) trong I, I2 lu lng chy vo u v cui thi on tnh ton t; Q1,Q2 - lu lng chy ra u v cui thi on t; S1,S2 l dung tch h cha u v cui thi on t. Phng trnh lng tr ca h cha l:

dS dQ = TS dt dt
hay vit di dng sai phn:

(3.85)

S = TSQ
Thay (3.86) vo (3.84) ta c:

(3.86)

I1 + I 2 Q + Q2 t 1 t = TS (Q2 Q1 ) 2 2
t I m =

(3.87)

I1 + I 2 v qua bin i ta c: 2 t t Q2 TS + = Q1 TS + I m t 2 2
t t Q2 TS + = Q1 TS + Q1 t + I m t 2 2
Q2 =

(I m Qt )t + Q
t TS + 2

(3.88)

Nh vy nu bit c lu lng chy vo trung bnh Im lu lng chy ra u thi khong tnh ton Q1 v thi gian tr nc ca h TS th c th tnh c lu lng chy ra cui thi khong tnh ton Q2 theo phng trnh (3.88)
1. M hnh lu vc

- Lng nc n ca mt lu vc kn gm c lng ma v tuyt ri (Hnh 3.14). Mt phn ca lng nc n ny c gi li trn b mt lu vc lm m t, mt phn bay hi vo kh quyn, phn cn li s to thnh 3 kiu nh sau: - Chy trn trn mt t, - Chy ngm trong t v lp t pha trn - Chy ngm trong lp t tng sau (xem hnh 3.14) Ngi ta hnh dung mi qu trnh chy k trn nh chy qua mt chui cc h k tip nhau. Lng nc chy vo h cha u tin ca chui h cha ny chnh l lng chy vo ca h cha tip theo. Tp hp lng nc chy ra t h cha cui cng chnh l lng nc chy ra ca c lu vc. tnh c lng nc chy vo ca cc h cha u tin ta phi tnh c ton b lng nc n ca lu vc, sau tch ring phn tham gia dng chy st mt v dng chy ngm.
a, Tnh lng nc ma trung bnh trn lu vc

90

Ngi ta thng tnh lng ma trung bnh ngy theo cng thc:

XN =

1 n ai .xi n i =1

(3.89)

trong Xi - lng ma o c trm th i trong mt ngy; n - s trm o ma trn ton lu vc; ai h s trung bnh tnh theo phng php hnh nhiu cnh hoc ly bng t s gia lng ma trung bnh hng nm trn phn lu vc tng ng v lng ma trung bnh hng nm ti trm o ma th i. XN: lng ma trung bnh ngy tnh ton Khi khong thi tnh ton t ngn hn mt ngy th lng ma trung bnh trong khong thi gian t l: Xt = b.XN vi b l h s chuyn i.
b, Tnh m ca t

(3.90)

H s dng chy ph thuc ch yu vo m ca t trn lu vc. Ngi ta ch dng ch s m A biu th m ca t. A2 = A1 + (X-Y) - K1E Vi A1, A2- ch s m u v cui khong t
X, Y - lng ma v dng chy trong thi khong t E - lng bc hi ngy, tnh trung bnh trn ton lu vc. Nu trn lu vc c n trm bc hi

(3.91)

th:

91

Ma ri

Tuyt tan

Lng nc n

Ch s

m A
Sinh dng chy Lm m t

Ch s t h m P

Chy ngm

Chy di mt

Chy trn mt

Dng chy Hnh 3.14. S m hnh lu vc ca m hnh SSARR = f2(A)

E=

1 n i Ei n i =1

(3.92)

i - h s trung bnh, Ei lng bc hi ngy o c trm th i; K1 - h s chuyn i, n thay i theo m ca t.

K1 = f1(A)

Trng hp thiu ti liu bc hi hng ngy th dng tr s bc hi trung bnh thng ET nhn vi h s chuyn i K2. Lc m ca t tnh theo cng thc: A2 = A1 + ( X Y )
c, Tnh lp dng chy

t K 2 ET 24

(3.93)

Lp dng chy, tng cng l :

Y = X

vi l h s dng chy ph thuc vo m ca t Lp dng chy tng cng ny c phn chia thnh 3 thnh phn ng vi dng chy mt, dng chy st mt v dng chy ngm. Lp dng chy ngm trong 1 gi l:

Yng = K 3

Y t

(3.94)

K3 - l h s chy ngm, n ph thuc vo ch s thm P:

92

K3 = f3(P)

Ch s thm P tnh nh sau: Y t P2 = P1 + 24 P1 t T + t 2

P1, P2 - ch s thm u v cui thi khong t T - thi gian tr nc bin i t 30 n 60 gi

Vic phn chia thnh dng chy mt Ym v dng chy st mt Ysm da vo cc gi thit sau: - Dng chy mt t tr s ln nht Ymmax v gi nguyn v tr s khi G ln hn 200% ca
Ymmax

- Dng chy mt nh nht Y chy mt trong mt gi l: Khi Ym < Ymmax th:

mmin

bng 10% ca G, vi G = Ym + YSm = Y - YngKhi lp dng

Ym = f4(G)

G Ym = 0,1 + 0,2. Ym max

Nu Ym Ymmax th ly Ym = Ymmax
YSm = G - Ym

d, Tnh lu lng chy ra ca lu vc Sau khi thc hin phn chia lng ma hiu qu thnh 3 phn: lng nc tham gia dng chy mt, st mt v dng chy ngm, ta coi l lng nc chy vo ca 3 h cha u tin trong 3 h cha tng tng vi 3 cch to thnh dng chy. Nu bit s h cha ca tng chui n1, n2, n3v thi gian tr nc TS1, TS2, Ts3 ta c th tnh c lu lng chy ra t h cui cng bng cch s dng lin tip cng thc (10.58). Lu lng chy ra ca lu vc l tng ca cc lu lng chy ra t 3 h cha sau cng e, iu chnh thng s. Cc thng s c m hnh lu vc l Cc thng s tnh ma bnh qun trn lu vc ai, b

- Cc thng s tnh bc hi K1, K2, i - Cc thng s n1,n2, n3, TS1, TS2, Ts3 v T. - Quan h gia h s dng chy v m =f2(A) - Quan h tnh lp dng chy ngm K3 = f3(P) - Quan h phn chia dng chy mt v dng chy ngm Ym = f4(G). Cc thng s v quan h k trn c la chon gi tr ti u thng qua vic tnh th dn sao cho s sai khc gia lu lng thc o v lu lng tnh ton l nh nht. Cho ti nay, vic iu chnh cc thng s ca m hnh SSARR cn cha c t ng ho, v th n cn l mt cng vic rt phc tp v ph thuc nhiu vo kinh nghim ca ngi iu chnh m hnh. trn k ra nhiu thng s v quan h, nhng ch c 4 loi sau nh hng nhiu nht ti kt qu tnh ton. - Cc h s tnh ma trung bnh lu vc ai, b - H s Ts1 ca dng chy mt - Quan h h s dng chy v m =f2(A)

93

- Quan h ca h s chy ngm vi ch s thm K3=f3(P) Ngi ta chn cc thi k c ng qu trnh bin i nhiu (ma l nm nc ln) iu chnh thng s, sau th li cho cc nm khc.
2. M hnh dng chy trong sng

Dng sng c coi nh bao gm mt chui h cha k tip nhau, mi h cha ng vi mt on sng di t 6 n 10 km. Thi gian tr nc Ts ca on sng tnh theo quan h.

TS =

K4 Qn

Vi K4, n l cc hng s thc nghim. Cng c th tnh TS theo quan h TS = f(Q) ly ra t ti liu thc o. Lu lng chy ra t on ny c dng lm lu lng chy vo on tip theo. Vic la chn cc gi tr ca K4, n v chiu di tnh ton ca cc on sng c lm theo cch th dn.
3. M hnh h cha

i vi h cha t nhin, lu lng chy vo h coi nh bit, nu tnh c thi gian tr nc TS th tnh c lu lng chy ra. TS bin thin theo mc nc h: TS = f(H). Vi mi h cha quan h TS =f(H) c xc nh sn t trc, do bit lu lng chy vo th tnh c ngay lu lng chy ra. cc h cha nhn to, ngoi ng cong TS = f(H) cn cn phi bit thm Hmax, Hmin, ng cong H ~ Q khi H > Hmax v kh nng tho qua h ng vi cc cp mc nc, nu l h chy theo ch c iu tit th phi tnh n s iu tit ny. Lu lng chy ra tnh ton phi nh hn kh nng tho qua ca h v mc nc tnh ton phi ln hn Hmin.
4. M hnh h thng sng

H thng sng bao gm cc lu vc nh, cc h cha v cc on sng. Nhng m hnh thnh phn ny bit, khi ghp li trong m hnh h thng sng cn phi ch n nh hng ca nc vt, hoc lng nc ly ra ti rung v lng nc chy thm vo on sng do ma trn ng rung, hoc do nc sau khi ti rung xong c tho ra sng. Tt c qu trnh tnh ton c thc hin trn my tnh theo cc chng trnh mu.
3.4.5. M hnh ngu nhin

Cc qu trnh thy vn tin trin trong khng gian v thi gian theo mt cch thc m trong c mt phn mang tnh tt nh v mt phn mang tnh ngu nhin. Trong mt s trng hp tnh bin i ngu nhin ni tri hn hn tnh bin i tt nh v khi n c coi l mt qu trnh ngu nhin thun tu. Trong nhng qu trnh nh vy gi tr quan trc ca qu trnh khng c tng quan g vi cc gi tr quan trc trc , v cc c trng thng k ca tt c cc quan trc l nh nhau. Khi cc gi tr quan trc khng c tng quan vi nhau, sn phm u ra ca h thng thy vn s c x l nh mt m hnh ngu nhin khng gian c lp v thi gian c lp nh ch ra trong cy phn loi . Cch x l ny rt thch hp vi cc quan trc ca nhng s kin thy vn cc oan nh dng chy ln nht hay cc s liu trung bnh trong mt khong thi gian di ca mt s qu trnh nh lng ma trung bnh nm. Tuy nhin vi cc c trng thy vn, m r nt l cc dng chy thi on (nm, thng, tun) tnh hnh khng hon ton nh vy. Cc kt qu nghin cu cho thy rng trn hu ht cc sng ngi th gii, tn ti mi tng quan ca dng chy trung bnh cc nm k nhau vi h s tng quan vo
94

khong 0,2- 0,3. Vi cc thi on ngn hn nh dng chy thng, dng chy tun, mi lin h ny cng r nt vi h s tng quan thc s ln, c th t n 0,8-0,9. Mi lin h tng quan ny c nh hng ti cc kt qu tnh ton thy vn, thy li m khng th b qua. Ratcovich .I A. ch ra rng khi tnh n tng quan gia cc nm k nhau (R(1)= 0,3) th dung tch h cha tnh c s tng ln 1,5 ln so vi khi coi chng l nhng i lng ngu nhin c lp. Cn khi R(1) = 0,5 th dung tch tng gp 2 ln. S tn ti mi lin h tng quan ny c nhiu nguyn nhn lin quan n s chuyn i lng tr m trn lu vc. Bn cht ca n lin quan n chu k hot ng ca mt tri. Nghin cu chi tit hn trn c s s liu rng ri ca cc sng ngi trn th gii, Ratkovich cho rng nguyn nhn c bn ca mi lin h ny l dao ng bc hi trn b mt lu vc. ng cho thy h s tng quan gia cc nm k nhau R(1) c lin h r nt vi mun dng chy nm Mo v mc nh hn l h s bin i ca dng chy nm Cv. Mi lin h dng chy ca cc thi on ngn hn nh thng, tun cng r nt hn, v cng lin quan cht ch vi s thay i lng tr m trn lu vc. Trong ma kit mi lin h ny lin quan cht ch vi qu trnh rt nc lu vc, c th biu th bng phng trnh:

Qt = Qo e (t t0 )/ k
trong Q0 l lu lng ti thi im t0 v k l h s trit gim.

(3.95)

Lng dng chy cc thng ma l c mi tng quan km cht ch hn, tuy nhin cng lin quan n s thay i lng tr m trn lu vc qua cc thi on. Nh vy c th thy rng dao ng dng chy trung bnh cc thi on khng th coi l mt qu trnh ngu nhin thun tu. V do cng khng th dng cc quy lut thng k vi hm phn b xc sut mt chiu m phng n. Khi phi dng cc m hnh khc m phng dao ng c tnh n mi quan h tng quan ny. Thng dng nht hin nay l m hnh t hi qui tuyn tnh (hay m hnh Markov). M hnh Markov c m hnh n hoc phc. M hnh Markov n ch xt mi lin h tng quan gia cc s hng k nhau, c hm phn b xc sut l hm phn b 2 chiu. Cn m hnh Marcov phc xt n mi lin h xa hn v hm phn b xc sut l hm phn b vi s chiu ln hn 2. Ni cch khc tp hp dng chy trung bnh cc thi on biu th mt qu trnh ngu nhin. m phng ton hc cc qu trnh ngu nhin ngi ta s dng cc hm phn b v cc thng s thng k. Cc phng php thng k c xy dng trn c s cc nguyn l ton hc miu t c tnh bin ng ngu nhin ca chui quan trc ca mt qu trnh. Trong cc phng php ny ngi ta tp trung ch vo bn thn cc kt qu quan trc hn l da trn cc qu trnh vt l to ra cc kt qu . Cc qu trnh ngu nhin c th dng hoc khng dng, egch hoc khng egch. Qu trnh ngu nhin dng l qu trnh khng bao hm xu th v chu k, n ch dao ng xung quanh k vng. N gha l trong qu trnh ngu nhin dng cc c trng thng k nh k vng, phng sai, hm t tng quan v mt ph khng thay i khi thay i thi gian tnh ton. Qu trnh ngu nhin khng dng th ngc li, cc c trng ny u c th thay i theo thi gian. Nh trn trnh by, cc qu trnh thu vn l mt qu trnh ngu nhin. Ngoi mt s qu trnh ring bit c coi l cc i lng ngu nhin c lp, cn trong a s cc qu trnh ngu nhin, gia cc s hng ca chng c mi lin h tng quan vi nhau, c bit l gia cc s hng k nhau. Ta c th thy rng mi gi tr ti thi im t c xc nh t cc s hng ng trc n t-i (i = 1,2,...p; t = 1,2,...n) ngha l ta c phng trnh: Qt = f (Qt 1 ,Qt 2 ,..., Qt P ) (3.96) Phng trnh (3.96) c th l phi tuyn. Tuy nhin trong trng hp qu trnh l dng hoc

95

thng qua php bin i a v qu trnh dng th c th coi Qt l t hp tuyn tnh ca cc Qt-I:
Qt = ai Qt i
i =1 P

(3.97)

trong : ai l cc h s. y chnh l mt qu trnh t hi qui cp p. Nu qu trnh (3.97) l mt qu trnh Gaux th n c th coi l mt qu trnh Markov theo ngha rng (Svanhidze,1977). Khi coi Qt l mt t hp tuyn tnh ca cc Qt-i th gi tr xc nh theo (3.97) so vi gi tr thc o s gp mt sai s. hiu chnh sai s ny ngi ta a vo mt thnh phn ngu nhin Rt(). Thnh phn ngu nhin ny cng thay i tng ng vi Qt. Khi (3.97) c dng:

Qt = a i Qt i + t ( )
i =1

(3.98a)

Cng c th hiu theo mt ngha khc, gi tr Qt tnh c theo (3.97) ch l gi tr trung bnh c iu kin ca Qt khi chu nh hng ca cc Qt-i. Gi tr thc ca Qt s lch khi gi tr trung bnh c iu kin ny mt lch xc sut Qt. Khi phng trnh c vit li thnh:

Qt = Qi Qt i + a0
i =1

(3.98b)

vi a0 =

D . Dii

Bn thn t() cng c th l mt t hp tuyn tnh ca cc t j ng trc

t = b j t j

(3.99)

Nh vy mt m hnh ngu nhin gm c hai thnh phn: -Thnh phn t hi quy c th coi l thnh phn tt nh v thnh phn ngu nhin.
Thnh phn t hi quy

Thnh phn t hi quy c xc nh t mi lin h tuyn tnh gia gi tr Qt v cc gi tr trc . Thng th phi thng qua mt php bin i a v mt chui dng Zt. Nh vy t hp tuyn tnh by gi l gia cc i lng bin i.
Z t = ai Z t i
i=1 P

(3.100)

Kt qu cui cng phi a tr li Qt theo php bin i ngc li. Vic la chn bc hi quy p (hay s cc s hng lin h) l rt quan trng. Tiu chun chung la chn bc hi quy p l cc tiu phng sai ca gi tr tnh theo m hnh P v khi t s
P gn bng 1, ngha l tng thm mt bc hi quy th phng sai khng thay i (Svanhize, P 1 1977), hoc ti hm t tng quan c bc nhy t ngt (Box-Jenkin).
2

Mt s m hnh khc li la chn tng phng trnh ring cho tng thi on m phng, tc l ch xt n bc hi quy p = 1 (Thormat-Fiering). Gi tr tnh c ca thi on ny li c coi l gi tr thc tnh ton cho thi on tip theo. V c tip tc nh vy cho tng thi on. Khi ch xt mi lin h vi mt s hng ng trc ta c m hnh t hi quy bc 1 (AR(1)) hay l xch Markov n. Cn khi xt n mi lin h n p s hng ng trc ta c m hnh t hi quy bc p (AR(p)), hay xch Markov phc.

96

Nh vy dng tng qut ca m hnh t hi quy bc 1 l:

Zt =a1Zt-1+a2Zt-2+... +apZt-p+ t

(3.101)

Thnh phn ngu nhin

Thnh phn ngu nhin chnh l thnh phn sai s hay phn d gia gi tr thc v gi tr tnh c theo m hnh t hi qui. Thnh phn ny khi lm d bo l sai s, cn khi ti chui m phng n l s ngu nhin. Vic xc nh thnh phn ngu nhin t tu thuc vo v tiu chun m phng ca m hnh. V c bn theo nguyn tc m phng l m bo cho cc thng s thng k ca chui s khng i. Nh vy:

t = t

(3.102)

Trong : t l s ngu nhin c phn b chun vi trung bnh bng 0 v phng sai bng 1. Trong nhiu trng hp i lng t c tng quan vi q cc gi tr t j ( =1,2,...,q) trc , khi ta c quan h MA(q):

t = b1t -1+ b2t -2+...+ bq t q

Trng hp tng qut ta c m hnh ARIMA(p,q)
Zt+a1Zt-1+...+apZt-p= b1t-1+b2t-2+...+bqt-qt

(3.103)

(3.104)

Thc cht gi tr tnh c Q't theo quan h t hi qui ch l gi tr trung bnh c iu kin. Gi tr thc s lch khi gi tr Q't mt lch xc xut no y, tu thuc dng hm phn b xc xut. Trong trng hp thay cho thnh phn ngu nhin t l phn d ta coi t l lch xc xut. Theo Chow(1964) ta c quan h:
Qt = Q't+Ktt

(3.105)

trong : Q't c xc nh t quan h t hi quy (3.105),khi ly gi tr thc Q. Kt l lch xc sut; t l khong lch qun phng (phng sai) c iu kin ca i lng Qt. Hai gi tr Kt v t c xc nh tu thuc dng hm phn b c iu kin, cc c trng thng k ca n v vo dng tng quan gia cc i lng ngu nhin. Ngi ta tha nhn mt gi thit rng(Kritski-Menken,1977), trong trng hp cc i lng ngu nhin c phn b chun th tng quan gia chng l tng quan chun, cn vi cc i lng ngu nhin c phn b Gamma th tng quan gia chng l tng quan gamma. Cc tng quan ny s chi phi biu thc xc nh cc c trng thng k ca cc hm phn b c iu kin, cng tc l chi phi thnh phn ngu nhin trong m hnh. Chng ta s xem xt chi tit hn cc vn ny trong mc xc nh cc thng s m hnh. C th thy mi tng t v hnh thc gia m hnh tt nh v m hnh ngu nhin. Tht vy vi m hnh t hi qui AR(p) ta c:

(B)Zt= t
trong :

(3.106) (3.107) (3.108) (3.109)

(B)= 1-a1B- a2B2-...-apBp

Cn vi m hnh trung bnh trt MA(q) c:
Zt= (B). t

trong :

(B)=1-b1B-b2B2-...-bqBq

Nh vy ta thy (B), (B) l cc hm chuyn hay hm lc. t ng vai tr ca hm vo v Zt ng vai tr l hm ra. Dy s ngu nhin t lc qua hm truyn ta c dy s Zt. V hnh thc cc m
97

hnh ngu nhin trn khng khc g m hnh tt nh v tng ng vi m hnh h thng thy vn nhng v hnh thc c s khc nhau rt ln. Trong m hnh tt nh, ma l hm vo, lc qua hm truyn ta c hm ra l dng chy. Cn m hnh ngu nhin hm vo l dy ngu nhin t lc qua cc hm truyn (B), (B) c hm ra Zt nhng khng th coi dy ngu nhin t gy ra dng chy Zt. V bn cht m hnh ngu nhin khng gii thch nguyn nhn v kt qu nh m hnh tt nh.C nhiu phng php v nhiu m hnh thc hin vic m phng ton hc chui thi gian thu vn c tng quan. C th tng hp thnh cc nhm sau: 1.Nhm cc m hnh theo phng php tng hp, trong m hnh l mt mu kp, gm nhiu thnh phn tng hp thnh chng hn nh m hnh Fragment. 2.Nhm m hnh ho trc tip cc gi tr cc bin thy vn bao gm cc thnh phn chu k v xu th nh cc m hnh Markov n hoc phc. 3.M hnh cc gi tr bin i ca cc bin thy vn t mt yu cu no y, chng hn a v chui dng, chui khng c gi tr m hay chui khng c tnh xu th nh m hnh ARIMA.
a. M hnh Markov.M hnh Markov thc chtl m hnh t hi qui tuyn tnh. Cng vi s ra i ca phng php Monte-Carlo m hnh Markov ngy cng c s dng rng ri m phng cc qu trnh thy vn. M hnh Markov c u th ch khng ch r rng v logic,m cc s ca n c chnh l chi tit m cn c th tng hp cho trng hp m hnh ho theo nhm, khi m hnh ho ng thi c chui thu vn trn nhiu v tr c lin h tng quan.Tuy nhin xch Markov ch l dng gn ng ban u m t chui thu vn (Ratkovich,1977), tu theo tng trng hp c th c cc bin dng khc nhau v cn c cc gi thit b sung v hm phn b ng thi v phn b c iu kin nhiu chiu. Chng hn i vi phn b chun, Kartvelixvili(1981) a ra gi thit sau (gi thit N).Nu hm phn b mt chiu ca cc i lng ngu nhin tng quan c dng phn b chun v ma trn tng quan xc nh dng th phn b nhiu chiu cng l chun.Cn Kritxki-Menken(1979) a ra gi thit sau y i vi cc i lng ngu nhin c phn b gamma (gi thit G) nh sau:

Phn b nhiu chiu ca s hu hn i lng ngu nhin l mt phn b Gamma nu phn b mt chiu c dng gamma v ma trn tng quan xc nh dng.M hnh Markov gm c m hnh Markov n v m hnh Markov phc.M hnh Markov n ch xt tng quan ca hai s hng k nhau i vi xch Markov n cn c hm phn b ng thi v phn b c iu kin hai chiu. M hnh Markov n c thc hin bng phng trnh t hi qui tuyn tnh ng vi cc mu tng quan khc nhau. Theo Ratcovich, c 5 bin dng sau y ca m hnh Markov n. *Trng hp1: M hnh ca dy cc i lng ngu nhin c lp. y l trng hp c bit xem xt phn trn. *Trng hp2: Tng quan chun gia cc i lng ngu nhin phn b chun. Khi hm phn b c iu kin cng l hm phn b chun. Trong m hnh ny phng sai c iu kin lin h vi phng sai khng iu kin theo biu thc:
i +1 = 1 r 2 (3.110)

Ngha l phng sai c iu kin i+1 khng ph thuc vo s hng ng trc n. *Trng hp 3: M hnh cc i lng ngu nhin c phn b Gamma nhng vi tng quan gn chun. trong trng hp ny phn b c iu kin l phn b Gamma nhng phng sai c iu kin c cng quan h nh tng quan chun, ngha l cng c: i +1 = 1 r 2 (3.111)

98

*Trng hp 4: M hnh cc i lng ngu nhin c phn b gamma v gia chng c tng quan gamma. Phng sai c iu kin khc vi tng quan chun lin h theo biu thc:

i+1 = ( 1 r 2 ) + 2ki r(1 r )

(3.112)

Ngha l phng sai c iu kin ph thuc vo s hng ng trc Ki. *Trng hp 5: Tng quan gia tn sut ca cc s hng k nhau. Nh vy chui c to thnh l chui tn sut, sau mi chuyn sang gi tr theo phn b xc sut cho. Cu trc ca m hnh khc hn cc trng hp trc, n khng ph thuc dng v gi tr ca hm phn b xc sut. H s tng quan biu th mi lin h gia cc i lng ngu nhin phn b u. M hnh Marov phc l chung nht m phng dao ng ca qu trnh thu vn. Trong trng hp ny ta cn c hm phn b ng thi v phn b c iu kin nhiu chiu. * Svanhidde (1977) gii thiu mt phng php gii tch gii quyt bi ton m hnh ho, nhng n giai on cui li phi thc hin bng phng php s. * Mt m hnh do Rednhicovxki (1969) ngh m hnh ho trc tip i lng ngu nhin da vo ma trn tng quan:

Qi = Q + ( Qi j Q i j )
j =1

i Di ,i j D + ii i j Dii Dii

(3.113)

trong : Qi-j l gi tr ca chui thi on v pha trc; D l nh thc ca ma trn tng quan; Dii, D i ,i j l nh thc con trong D tng ng vi cc phn t rij v ri ,i j Khi qu trnh l dng ta c quan h; Qi = Q ( Qi j Q )
j =1 P

Di ,i j Dii

D Dii

(3.114)

M hnh ny cng da trn tng quan chun ca cc i lng ngu nhin phn b chun. * M hnh Thormat-Fiering cng c dng tng t:

Qi+1 = Q j+1 + a1, j ( Qi Q j ) + a2, j ( Qi1 Q j1 ) + t j j+1 1 rj2

(3.115)

trong : a 1, j v a 2, j l cc h s hi qui; Q j v Q j 1 l trung bnh ca thng j v j+1.

99

Chng 4 NH GI CHT LNG NC

Ngun nc rt phong ph bao gm ngun nc mt v nc ngm trong lng Tri t. Nc l thnh phn c bn ca c th sinh vt l mi trng ca s sng. Ngy nay mc pht trin ca kinh t rt nhanh, nhu cu v nc ngy cng tng. Vn s dng hp l ngun nc v bo v ngun nc trong sch l mt vn ln, cp thit i vi con ngi hin nay v trong tng lai. Nc l mt ngun ti nguyn thin nhin, mt thnh phn ca cnh quan a l, ca mi trng sng. C nhiu khi nim v mi trng sng (cn gi l mi trng t nhin, mi trng xung quanh) trong mt khi nim ngy cng c chp nhn rng ri cho rng "Trong mi trng sng, cc hot ng a dng v phc tp cc sinh vt, c bit l hot ng ca con ngi din ra thng xuyn lin tc, gy ra nhng bin i bn trong ca cc yu t mi trng ni chung v ngun nc t nhin ni ring". Mt trong nhng bin i l lm thay i cht lng ngun nc v mt mc cao s gy nn tnh trng nhim ngun nc. Ngc li, s thay i ca mi trng nc, trong mt quy m ln cng gy nn nhng bin i ca mi trng xung quanh. Gia mi trng nc v mi trng t nhin lun duy tr mt mi quan h tng h. Hiu bit su sc mi quan h l rt cn thit ca con ngi bo v v ci to t nhin. p ng yu cu trn, i vi cc ngnh dng nc phi nghin cu cc vn : - nh gi nhu cu dng nc - nh gi cht lng ca ngun nc s dng. - nh gi v d bo mc nhim bn ngun nc, nghin cu cc bin php hn ch i n loi tr tnh trng nhim ngun cng l cc ni dung ch yu gii thiu trong mc ny

1. Nhu cu cn s dng nc
C th phn thnh hai loi nhu cu s dng nc, nhu cu nc cho sinh hot v nhu cu nc cho cc nghnh kinh t cng nghip, giao thng vn ti. Ngy nay, nhu cu nc bnh qun ti thiu cho sinh hot ca mi ngi ngy l 5lt. cc nc pht trin, nhu cu nc mi gi bnh qun trn 500lt/ngy. Ch tnh mc nc 250 lt/ngy th mt triu dn H Ni mi ngy cng cn 25 vn m3, trong nm c th dng cn hai h cha nh h Sui Hai (H Sn Bnh), t cho thy lng nc dng cho sinh hot con ngi khng phi l nh, nht l trong cc nc pht trin. Ngy nay, vi 3,7 t dn s th gii, nhu cu nc sinh hot t 7 n 8 t m3 mi ngy. D tnh sau nm 2.000 dn s th gii n trn 6 t ngi, khi c nhu cu nc sinh hot s cn ln hn nhiu. Nhu cu nc cho cc ngnh kinh t cng rt ln, ch yu cho cng nghip v nng nghip. i vi nng nghip, nc l nhu cu cn thit yu cho sinh trng v pht trin ca cy trng. Vic m bo nhu cu nc cho cy trng c tc dng quyt nh i vi nng sut cy trng. V vy vic pht trin cc bin php thu li, m bo ch ng ti tiu nc l rt quan trng trong pht trin nng

100

nghip. Nhu cu nc dng cho cng nghip cng rt ln, nht l trong cc nc cng nghip pht trin; nc dng trong cng nghip ra sch cc cht bn trong cc vt liu sn xut, nho ra vt liu, lm dung mi cho cc phn ng ho hc trong quy trnh sn xut, lm ngui thit b, lm lnh sn phm... Th d trong mi giy ng h, mt nh my nhit in 1 triu kw cn t 60 n 70m3 nc lm ngui my. Lng nc cn sn xut ra mt loi sn phm cng nghip nh bng 3.5. Lng nc trn ch mt t 10 n 15 % trong qu trnh sn xut, cn li cha cc cht bn, cht c ca qu trnh sn xut sinh ra gi l nc thi cng nghip. Nc thi cng nghip cha qua x l tho vo ngun nc s gy nn tnh trng nhim.

2. Khai thc v s dng ngun nc ngy nay

Nc l mt ti nguyn thin nhin v cng qu gi, con ngi ngy cng c gng khai thc, s dng c ngun nc mt v mt nc ngm. Mc khai thc s dng ngun nc hin nay cn khc nhau gia cc nc, cc khu vc, Ngun nc mt c s dng, khai thc trit nht hin nay vo mc ch pht in.Nhiu nc trn th gii t trng thu in trong ton sn lng in quc gia t ti nh cao nh Thu S, Na Uy, Thy in xp x 100% i Nh Lan, Cng G 95%, Cng ho Dn ch Nhn dn Triu Tin 90%... Ngoi pht in ngun nc mt s dng rng ri cho nhiu mc ch khc nh ti, nui c, giao thng thu, nc dng cho cng nghip... hn ch nhng nh hng phn b ngun nc mt khng u gia cc vng, ngy nay c nhiu nhng h thng cng trnh, knh dn ln c xy dng dn nhng lng nc khng l t vng ny sang vng khc s dng. Trong s 37.000 t m3 nc tun hon trn a lc trong mt nm, lng nc cha di t gn 13.000 t chim 35%. Cng vi khai thc s dng ngun nc mt, ngun nc ngm ngy cng c ch nht v cung cp nc cho sinh hot, nc ti cho cy trng. Hung ga ri bt u khai thc mt ti nc ngm tr lng khong 4.000 t m3. Nhng nc c nhiu cng trnh khai thc nc ngm hin nay l Lin X, M, Hungari,... vng San ph rng xt c c trn 2.00 my bm ngm ti cho 54.000 hc ta. Dng nc ngm cung cp nc cho sinh hot thnh ph th nc no cng c. Mt s ni trn th gii khai thc nc ngm qu mc gy ra tnh trng st ln nghim trng. Ti nhng khu tp trung c, khu cng nghip nhng nc pht trin, ngun nc c s dng trit nhng tnh trng thiu nc vn xy ra ti nhiu ni. Ngc li, ngun nc cha c s d ng k trong nhng nc km pht trin.

3. Vn thiu nc.
Trc y vi th k, vn thiu nc chua c t ra, v vi mc pht trin x hi thi , nhu cu nc ca con ngi cha phi l ln. Hn na dn s th gii cn thp so vi hinnay. Ngy nay hin trng khc hn. Dn s th gii u th k XX l 1.617 triu ngi. nm 1963 c 3.182 triu v d kin nm 2.000 lng nc tiu th trn th gii dng trong ti vo khoangt 7.000 t m3, nc sinh hot 600t m3, nc cho cng nghip 10.700 t m3, cho nhu cu khc 400 t m3. Cc thnh ph ln ngy nay, tnh trng thiu nc, nhim ngun nc hay xy ra ti nhiu ni. Theo thng k hin nay c 60% din tch t ai trn tr gii thiu nc, thm ch thiu c nc trong sinh hot mc cn thit. 150 triu ngi ang c tr trn din tch . nh gi mc thiu nc trong tng khu vc trn th gii, hi ngh bn v nc ca cc nc x hi ch ngha hp nm 1963 ti Vacsava ngh dng h s C biu th mc thiu nc nh sau:H s C l t l gia tng lng dng chy trong nm ca khu vc trn tng lng nc tiu th cu khu vc , tnh theo tiu chun 250 m3 mt u ngi. C = 20 thuc khu vc m bo ngun nc tng i cao. C = 20 10 bo m, nhng phi c s phn phi trong khu vc. C = 10 5 ngun nc rt hn ch, cn dn nc vng khc ti. C < 5 thiu nc nghim trng, cn c bin php khn trng cung cp thm. Trong

101

hi ngh nh gi Ba Lan v Hung ga ri c C = 8, nhng v dn s pht trin nn n nm 1980 C = 6 v nm 2.000 C = 4. Lin X, c nhng nc cng ho nh Ukraina c C = 5, nm 1980 c C = 4. Nhng nc cng ho thiu nc nh Mn-a-vi C = 40 thuc khu vc di do v nc, cn y mnh vic khai thc.Ti nhiu ni, tnh hnh thiu nc cng trm trong hn do tnh trng mt phn ngun nc, chue yu l nc mt b nhim bn do cc ngun nc thi sinh hot v cng nghip gy ra.

4.1. KIN THC C S NH GI CHT LNG NC

Nc sng ngi, h ao cha nhiu cc cht hu c, v c, cc loi vi sinh vt khc nhau. T l thnh phn ca cc cht trn c trong mt mu nc phn nh cht lng nc ca mu. B tr nhng v tr ly mu, phn tch nh tnh nh lng thnh phn cc cht trong mu nc trong phng th nghim l ni dung ch yu nh gi cht lng v pht hin tnh hnh nhim ngun nc.

4.1.1 Nhng thng s vt l, ho hc, sinh hc ca cht lng nc

C ba loi thng s phn nh cc c tnh khc nhau ca cht lng nc v thng s vt l, thng s ho hc v thng s sinh hc,

1. Thng s vt l Thng s vt l bao gm mu sc, mi, v, nhit ca nc, lng cc cht rn l lng v ho tan trong nc, cc cht du m trn b mt nc.
Phn tch mu sc ca ngun nc cn phn bit mu sc thc ca nc v mu sc ca nc khi nhim bn. Loi v mt cht bn lm thay i mu sc ca nc. Nc t nhin khng mu khi nhim bn thng ng sang mu sm. Cn lng cc cht rn trong nc c phn nh qua c ca nc.

2. Thng s ho hc. Thng s ho hc phn nh nhng c tnh ho hc hu c v v c ca

nc. a) c tnh ho hu c ca nc th hin trong qu trnh s dng xy ho tan trong nc ca cc loi vi khun, vi sinh vt phn hu cc cht hu c. Nc t nhin tinh khit hon ton khng cha nhng cht hu c no c. Nc t nhin nhim bn th thnh phn cc cht hu c trong nc tng ln cc cht ny lun b tc dng phn hu ca cc vi sinh vt. Nu lng cht hu c cng nhiu th lng xy cn thit cho qu trnh phn hu cng ln, do lng xy ho tan s gim xung, nh hung n qu trnh sng ca cc sinh vt nc. Phn nh c tnh ca qu trnh trn, c th dng mt s thng s sau: - Nhu cu xy sinh hc BOD (mg/i) - Nhu cu xy ho hc COD (mg/1) - Nhu cu xy tng cng TOD (mg/1) - Tng s cc bon hu c TOC (mg/1) Cc thng s trn c xc nh qua phn tch trong phng th nghim mu nc thc t. Trong cc thng s, BOD l thng s quan trng nht, phn nh mc nhim bn nc r rt nht. b) c tnh v c ca nc bao gm mn, cng, pH, axt, kim, lng cha cc ion Mangan (Mn), Clo (Cl), Sunfat (So4), nhng kim loi nng nh Thu ngn (Hg), Ch (Pb), Crm (Cr), ng (Cu), Km (Zn), cc hp cht cha Ni t hu c, amniac (NH3,No2, No3) v Pht pht (Po4).

3. Thng s sinh hc.Thng s sinh hc ca cht lng nc gm loi v mt cc vi khun gy bnh, cc vi sinh vt trong mu nc phn tch. i vi nc cung cp cho sinh hot yu cu cht lng cao, trong c bit ch n thng s ny.

102

4.1.2. Nhu cu oxy sinh hc BOD

1. Khi nim
Cc cht bn trong noc phn ln l cc cht hu c, chng khng phi l nhng cht c cho cc sinh vt sng. Chng khng nh hng n pH. Trong nc, hu ht cc cht hu c b tc ng phn hu ca cc vi sinh vt thnh cc hp cht n gin. Qu trnh vi sinh vt cn xy. Nu lng cht hu c trong nc cng ln v mt vi sinh vt cng cao th lng xy cn thit cho qu trnh phn hu yu cu cng nhiu. Lng xy cn thit cc vi sinh vt phn hu cc cht hu c trong mt n v mu nc l nhu cu xy sinh hc BOD. n v ca BOD l mg/1. Thng s thng xc nh BOD ngi ta phn tch mu nc trong iu kin nhit 200 C trong thi gian 5 ngy. BOD o c gi l BOD5. Phn tch BOD trong mt mu nc th nghim cha trong mt bnh thu tinh c th thy qu trnh s dng xy ca t bo vi sinh vt chia thnh hai giai on. u tin nhn ca t bo vi sinh vt dng xy phn hu cc cht hu c, ly nng lng cho n ln ln. Giai on ny din ra trong khong t 18 n 36 gi. Giai on tip theo l giai on trong cc t bo vi sinh vt dng xy xy ho hay cho qa trnh trao i cht bn trong cc t bo vi sinh vt. Giai on ny khng di hn 20 ngy. Tc ca phn ng trn giai on u thng gp t 10 n 20 ln tc ca giai on sau, nn ng cong BOD trong giai on u cng rt dc, sau thoi dn.

2. Cng thc BOD

Qu trnh s dng xy trong th nghim trn c th biu th di dng cng thc ton hc nh sau: Gi L l lng xy ho tan trong nc. Trong qu trnh s dng xy ca vi sinh vt, s bin i ca L theo thi gian c dng: dL = KL dt trong : K- h s tc trung bnh ca phn ng trung bnh BOD. Tch phn ta c: (4.1)

Lt = L0e-Kt

(4.2)

trong : L0- Tng s lng xy s dng trong phn ng ; Lt - BOD cn li thi im t t y = L0- Lt th y l tng s xy s dng hoc BOD s dng sau thi gian t, th phng trnh (3.117) c th vit thnh: y = L0(1- e - Kt) hoc y = L0(1 - 10K't) (4.4) trong : K' - h s tc trung bnh ca phn ng trn c s c s 10. Quan h gia K v K' nh sau: (4.3)

K = 2,303K'
Trong phng trnh ( 3.119) h s K ph thuc s lng v c tnh t nhin ca nhng cht hu c c trong ngun nc thi. i vi dng nc thi giu cht hu c, tc s dng xy trong giai on mt rt nhanh nn h s K ln. i vi dng nc thi x l, lng cht hu c cn thp, cho nn hu ht lng xy dng trong giai on 2. H s K trong trng hp ny thp hn trong trng hp trn nhiu.

103

Loi nc thi Nc thi cha x l Nc thi qua b phn lc Nc thi x l vi sinh vt Nc sng nhim t bn

K'(1/ ngy) 0,15- 0.28 0,12 - 0,22 0,06 - 0,10 0,04 - 0,08

Hai h s K, K' u l n s trong phng trnh BOD, chng c th tnh ton gin tip da vo s liu thc o.

3. S xy ho trong phn ng BOD.

S xy ho trong th nghim BOD nh trn xy ra thnh hai giai on: xy ho cc hp cht cha cc bon (cc bon nt ho ) v xy ho cc hp cht cha Ni t (Ni t rt ho). S xy ho cc hp cht cha cc bon xy ra u tin v c th hin nh phng trnh BOD (3.119)

y = L0 (1- ekt)
v theo qu trnh CxHyOz Co2 + H20 S xy ho hp cht cha Ni t tip sau qu trnh Cc b nt ho theo qu trnh: NH3 No2 No3 vi tc chm hn. Trong mt s iu kin, c th c hai qu trnh xy ho trn xy ra ng thi. Nhng ni chung, s Ni t rt ho ch bt u khi nhu cu cc bon tho mn. Biu thc ton hc ca phn ng s gm hai phn.

y = L0(1- e-K1t ) + LN(1-e-k2t)

trong L0- Nhu cu xy ho ti a cho cc bon nt nt ho; LN - Nhu cu xy ho ti a cho Ni t rt ho K1 - H s tc ca s cc bon nt ho; K2- H s tc d ca s Ni t rt ho

4.1.3 COD, TOD, TOC

1. COD. COD l nhu cu xy ho hc tc nhu cu xy ho cn thit cho xy ho hc c cht trong mt n v mu nc (mg/1). Nu bit c phng trnh phn ng ho hc th c th tnh c lng COD theo l thuyt. Th d:
xy ho 1.000mg phnol nh vy: C6H5OH7+7O2 CO2+3H2O

COD l thuyt = (1.000)(224)/94 = 2.383mg

Khng phi tt c cc cht hu c u d dng b xy ho hc. Cc loi ng, cc cht bo c cu trc mch phn nhnh thng d b xi ho hon ton. Cn benzen, Toluen khng b xy ho hc.Cc axt amin, cc axt c cu trc mch thng c th hon ton b xy ho khi c cht xc tc l Sunfat nhm (Ag2So4) tham gia. Ngoi cc tnh l thuyt, COD cng c cho trong s tay ''nhng phng php tiu chun kim tra cht lng nc v nc thi''

2. TOD. TOD l nhu cu xy tng cng, cn thit cho hai qu trnh xy sinh hc (BOD) v xy ho hc (COD). n v mg/l

104

3.TOC. TOC l tng s cc bon hu c trong mt n v mu nc. TOC c xc nh nh dng c phn tch cc bon.
Trong th nghim ny, mt mu nc, hoc nc thi c a vo mt ng vi nhit t 900 n 1.000 0C, nc s bc hi, cc cht c cc bon s b xy ho hon ton nh cht xc tc C ban v lung xy thi qua. Lung kh gm Co2' O2, hi nc s c dn n bnh ngng t, cn kh CO2, O2 tip tc dn n my phn tch hng ngoi. Lng cc bon hu c s c xc nh v v trn biu bng b phn t ghi.

4.2. CHT LNG TI NGUYN NC DI NH HNG CC HOT NG KINH T

Cht lng nc b chi phi bi cc yu t t nhin cng nh nhn sinh. Kt qu s dng mnh m ti nguyn nc khng ch lm thay i lng nc dng cho lnh vc hot ng kinh t ny hoc kia m cn lm thay i cc thnh phn cn cn nc, ch thu vn ca i tng nc v ci chnh l thay i cht lng ca n. iu c gii thch l a s sng ngi v h va ng thi l ngun cp nc v l ni tip nhn dng chy thi cng cng, cng nghip v nng nghip. iu ny dn n nhng vng ng dn trn a cu hin nay khng cn nhng h thng sng ln vi ch thu vn t nhin v thnh phn ho hc khng b ph hu bi cc hot ng nhn sinh. Cc dng chnh ca hot ng kinh t gy nh hng ln nht n s thay i s lng v cht lng ti nguyn nc l: nhu cu dng nc cho cng nghip v nhu cu cng cng, nc thi, chuyn dng chy, th ho, thnh lp h cha, ti v lm ngp t kh, tiu, cc bin php nng lm nghip v v.v.. Khi trn mi on tr nc ng thi c th tc ng nu khng phi l tt c th cng s nhiu trong cc nhn t k trn. Lin quan ti iu , khi k hoch ho kinh t nc v iu tit cht lng nc cn thit phi tnh n nh hng ca tng nhn t trong s mt cch ring bit v gp li cng mt lc. Khi xem xt mi nhn t ng chm ti hai vn : thay i ch thu vn v th tch dng chy cng vi s thay i cht lng ti nguyn nc, Do cc tc ng nhn sinh gy ra s nhim bn nc t nhin, tc l thay i thnh phn v tnh cht ca n, dn ti vic lm ti cht lng nc i vi vic s dng nc. Nguy him nht i vi nc t nhin v cc c th sng l nhim x. Nc b nhim bn c th tr nn bt li i vi ngi s dng nc nht nh, Th nn, ti sao khi nh gi nh hng ca cc hot ng kinh t ln ti nguyn nc cn phi tnh n khng ch s thay i s lng ca n m cn c cht lng.

4.2.1.Cng nghip
c im s dng nc trong cng nghip l ch phn ln nc sau khi s dng trong qu trnh sn xut c tr li vo sng ngi v h dng nc thi. Nhu cu dng nc khng hon li chim phn khng ln trong nc dng (5-10%) v khng th gy nh hng ln n thay i lng ti nguyn nc cc khu vc ln. Cn cht lng nc ngun nc di nh hng ca dng chy cng nghip thay i rt nhanh, tc l vic nc thi dn ti s nhim bn sng sui v thu vc. Lng nc v thnh phn cht nhim bn trong nc thi cng nghip ph thuc vo dng sn xut, nhin liu gc, cc sn phm ph tham gia vo cc qu trnh cng ngh. Ngoi ra, thnh phn nc thi ca mt nh my c th ph thuc vo cng ngh ang dng nh my, vo dng v s hon thin ca b my sn xut v.v.. Thnh phn nc thi cng nghip rt a dng v thm ch i vi mt v ch mt nh my dao ng trong mt phm vi v cng rng ln. Vi s xut hin cc lnh vc cng nghip mi (ho du, tng hp cht hu c v. v..), vi s tng trng s dng cc hp cht ho hc dn n s tng tip tc nc thi cng nghip v phc tp ho thnh phn ca chng.

105

Ngun nc mt nhim bn mnh nht l cc lnh vc cng nghip nh gang thp, ho hc, giy - xenlul, ho du. Cc cht nhim bn ch yu trong nc thi cc lnh vc cng nghip ny l: du. phenon, kim loi mu, cc ho cht phc tp. Theo kt qu quan trc, thc hin trong nhng nm gn y, nc mt nc ta b nhim bn bng sn phm du trong 80% cc trng hp, phenon 60%, kim loi nng - 40%. Du v cc sn phm du khng phi l thnh t t nhin ca thnh phn nc sng v thu vc, cho nn s xut hin chng trong cc i tng nc c th coi l nhim bn. S c mt trong nc cc sn phm du phn nh ln s pht trin ca trng c v c nh, ln s lng ti nguyn thc n ca sng, ln cht lng v li ch trong thc n ca c nui. S thnh to cc mng trn mt nc lm gim kh nng t lm sch ca thu vc. Cc tng sinh ho ca sn phm du trong nc mt phn ho rt chm. Vn tc ho tan sinh ho ph thuc vo nhiu nhn t: nhit nc, s c mt ca xy trong vt cht vi sinh, vo thnh phn ho hc ca sn phm du thi ra, s c mt ca cc thc vt bc cao trong nc v.v.. Tuy nhin, thm ch vi cc iu kin thun li, cc tng du l lng v ho tan trong nc (s chm lng v dt t thu vc) din ra khng nhanh hn 100 - 150 ngy. Nhim bn nc mt bng phenon (thng c dng phenon nguyn t bay) dn ti s ph v cc qu trnh sinh hc din ra trong i tng nc, Do s hot ng ca cc x nghip ho cht, trong nc ri xung mt lng cc hp cht hu c a dng theo thnh phn v tnh cht, trong s c nhng cht t trc n nay khng tn ti trong t nhin. Mt phn cc cht ny rt hot ng t phng din sinh hc, chng rt kh ty bng sinh hc, tc ng theo c ch vt l tc l kh tch ra khi dng chy. Gia cc vy cht y mt v tr c bit dnh cho cc cht ty ra tng hp - cht kh bn, m vic sn xut chng hin nay rt pht trin cc nc. Theo cc nghin cu thc hin M, xc nh c rng, vic s dng cc cht ty ra dn n vic tng hm lng phtpho trong cc sng ngi Hp chng quc Hoa K v iu dn ti s pht trin mnh trong cc thu thc vt l i mu nc v thu vc, lm cn kit xy trong khi nc. Nt thiu tch cc th hai ca cht ty ra l n gy kh khn cho cng vic ca cc knh dn, lm gim cc qu trnh xo trn khi lm sch nc trn cc trm dn nc. Gy tc ng hon ton bt li trn sng cn c nc thi cha mt hm lng ln ng v km. Lng ng v km trong cc thu vc nhim bn khng ln v ph thuc vo cc iu kin a l t nhin, hnh thnh thnh phn ho hc ca nc, dao ng nhit mu v ch thu vn ca sng ngi. Hm lng ng trong nc t nhin chim 1 - 10 microgam/l, cn km - 1- 30 microgam/l. S tng nng cc cht ny trong nc sng hay thu vc dn ti lm chm qu trnh t lm sch ca nc khi cc hp cht hu c, dn ti ph hu i sng sinh vt ca thu vc. Tnh hnh cng tr nn su sc rng, ng v km khng th tch hon ton ra khi thu vc m ch c th thay i dng v tc phn hu ca chng. Nh vy, khi ti nc thi cha cc kim loi nng ny cn phi tnh n s h thp nng chng bng cch pha long. Dng nhim bn cng nghip c bit ca thu vc l nhim bn nhit do s thi nc nng t cc trm nng lng khc nhau. Mt lng nhit ln xm nhp cng nc thi nng vo sng, h v cc h cha nhn to gy nh hng kh ln n ch sinh hc v ch nhit ca thu vc. Cc quan trc tin hnh trong vng tc ng ca nc nng chng t rng trong vng ny b ph v mi trng sng ca c, c th cc zotolankon b cht, lm tng nhim bn ca c. Cng nh hng ca nhim bn nhit ph thuc vo nhit hun nng nc. i vi ma h, lm r tun t c trng sau v tc ng ca nhit nc tng ln trn cc h bioxen v cc thu vc nhn to: - vi nhit di 26 oC khng quan st thy tc ng c hi;

106

- trong khong 26 - 30 oC xut hin trng thi khng thun li cho i sng ca c; - cao hn 30 oC quan st thy tc ng bt li cho bioxen; - vi 34 - 36 oC xut hin cc iu kin hu hoi i vi c v cc t chc hu c khc. Vic thnh lp cc thit b lm lnh khc nhau i vi s thi nc ca cc trm nhit in vi lu lng ln ca cc loi nc ny dn ti vic tng gi tr thnh phm v vn hnh ca chng. Lin quan ti iu , vic nghin cu nhim bn nhit c quan tm c bit trong thi gian gn y.

4.2.2. Nc thi cng cng

Nc thi cng cng chim khong gn 20% ton b th tich dng chy xm nhp vo cc h cha nc mt (70 -80% l phn nc thi cng nghip). Tuy nhin, nu th tch nc thi cng nghip v lng vt cht nhim bn trong c th lm gim ( do vn hnh cp nc quay vng, thay i cng ngh sn xut) th nc thi cng cng thng c trng bi s tng th tch khng ngng, b chi phi bi s tng dn s, tng nhu cu dng nc, tng cc iu kin v sinh dch t trong sinh hot cu cc thnh ph hin i v cc im dn c. Lng cht nhim bn trong nc thi cng cng thng kh n nh (th tch nhim bn trn mt u ngi), v cho php tnh th tch nhim bn a ra ph thuc vo s dn, th tch nhu cu dng nc, trch nhim x hi v.v.. Ch tiu nhim bn trung bnh tnh cho 1 u ngi i vi dn trong bng 4.1 S n nh thnh phn nc thi cng cng cho php d bo lng nc trong cc thu vc tip nhn ph thuc vo lng nc v ch thu vn, xc nh kh nng t lm sch ca n cng nh lng nhim bn xc nh qua dn s. Bng 4.1. Nhim bn nc thi cng cng cho 1 ngi dn
Cht ch th v ch tiu Cht l lng Mui (N) Pht pht Pht pht cha ty ra Hp cht Clo A xt nhim bn g/ ngy m 65 8 3,3 1,6 9 5-7

Hin nay thm ch trn cc sng ln nm di cc thnh ph ln cng quan st thy s nhim bn mnh, iu ny c gii thch bi cc tnh cht c bit ca nc thi cng cng - s hin din trong mt lng ln cc cht thi khc nhau. Nc thi cng cng gy nn s ch bi tnh cht c hi ca n - l nguyn nhn xut hin nhiu cn bnh l.

4.2.3 th ho
Hiu th ho l qu trnh tp trung dn c v lc lng sn xut thnh ph. Qu trnh th ho gn lin vi s tng trng dn s v cch mng khoa hc k thut. Cng qu trnh ny tng ln t ngt vo na cui th k XX. bt u t nm 1950, tc tng trng dn c thnh ph vt qu tc tng trng dn c nng thn. Vy nn, nu nh nm 1960 trong tng dn c trn Tri t gn 3 t ngi thnh ph v nng thn phn chia theo t l 1 : 2 th n nm 2000 phn ln dn c Tri t s c sng thnh ph. S tp trung dn c, cng nghip, xy dng trn cc din tch hu hn (trong cc nc pht trin din tch chim bi thnh ph v cc lng mc kiu thnh ph chim 5% din tch cc nc ) dn ti

107

s thay i mi thnh phn c bn ca mi trng thin nhin: lu vc khng kh, lp ph th nhng v thc vt, nc mt v nc ngm. Khi xt n s thay i ti nguyn nc trn cc lnh th th ho cn tch bch hai vn ch yu: di nh hng ca cc nhn t no v cht lng nc mt vi cn cn nc thay i ra sao v ch nc sng ngi thay i bng cch no ( tc l xt s thay i v lng v cht lng ti nguyn nc di nh hng ca th ho). S thay i cht lng nc t nhin trn lnh th th ho b chi phi bi trong phm vi thnh ph hnh thnh mt lng nc thi cng nghip v s dng cng cng ln c th xm nhp vo cc i tng nc cng nh l nc di t trong khun kh thnh ph hoc gn n. Ngoi ra, mt lng nc nhim bn ln xm nhp vo cc ngun nc t dng chy mt t lnh th thnh ph ( cn gi l nc ra) v t ma kh quyn (dng chy ma ro). nh hng ca nc thi cng nghip v nc thi cng cng n cht lng nc xem xt trn. nh hng ca nc ra v ma ro n cht lng nc thu vc l rt ln. Cc loi nc ny cha mt lng ln cc cht khong v hu c v tng lng cht nhim bn trong cc nc ny c lng t 8 - 15% tng lng vt cht xm nhp t nc thi cng cng trn cng mt lnh th (Belitrenco, Svetxov, 1976). nh hng ng thi ca nc thi cng nghip, nc thi cng cng, nc ma ro v nc ra dn n cc thay i cn bn sau y ca thnh phn nc t nhin trn lnh th th ho: tng nng ho tan cc cht sinh hc v hu c; gim t ngt hm lng xy ho tan; cht nhim bn c trng l cc cht tng hp tch cc b mt c s dng mnh c trong cng nghip ln cng cng; tng nhim bn c hi. S thay i v lng ti nguyn nc trn lnh th th ho chi phi trc ht bi s tng nhu cu dng nc ca c dn v cng nghip. Nhu cu tng ln v nc c th tho mn do ti nguyn a phng v c do vic cun ht ti nguyn t ngoi phm vi ni dng nc (thay i nhn to ti nguyn nc). Nhn t quan trng th hai l s hin din trn lnh th th ho cc khu vc din tch khng thm nc hoc t thm nc (nh ca, lp ph ng, cc cng trnh cng nghip hoc kinh t), cn tr s thm v dn n tng h s dng chy v hu qu l dn ti s ti phn b cc thnh phn nc mt v nc ngm ca ti nguyn nc. Tt c iu dn ti vic dng chy t lnh th th ho khc bit hn vi lu vc t nhin. S khc bit trong mc ny hay mc khc lin quan ti th tch dng chy, lu lng nc cc i v cc tiu, t l gia thnh phn dng chy mt v dng chy ngm. Dng chy nm t lnh th th ho c th tng t 10% hoc hn so vi dng chy t lnh th khng th ho (thiu s cun hts cc ti nguyn b sung t cc pha). Nguyn nhn s tng ny l cc h s dng chy cao v cc tn tht khng hon li t hn, lin quan n thm, cng nh s tng lng ma cc thnh ph. Trong cc trng hp nh vy, khi s cp nc c thc hin t mc nc khng b ngm bi sng v chuyn nc t cc vng khc, cn nc thi xung sng th dng chy sng ngi c th tng mt vi ln. Him khi th ho nh hng ti s thay i th tch v vo thi k lu lng l cng nh chi phi n s thay i cc h s dng chy trong phm vi lnh th thnh ph. S chnh lch ln nht gia lu lng l trn cc lu vc t nhin v lnh th th ho quan st c vi cc gi tr nh v trung bnh ca chng, khi s phn k trong cc h s dng chy l cc

108

i. Vi lu lng ma ro sut m bo him s khc bit trong lu lng l gim xung (do trong cc iu kin ny cc h s dng chy b mt t nhin v nhn to ging nhau). Tnh cht nh hng ca th ho n dng chy kit ph thuc vo ngun no c s dng cp nc, Trong trng hp khi m cp nc c ly t cc ngun a phng, th thng xy ra s gim dng chy kit do s h thp thm nc ma v tuyt tan. S tng dng chy kit c th xy ra trong trng hp m bo nc cho thnh ph t ngun phn b ngoi phm vi lu vc cp nc, trong khi nc thi li c thc hin trong phm vi ca n.

4.2.4. nh hng ca cc bin php ti tiu

S cn thit m bo cho nhn loi cc sn phm dinh dng dn ti s m rng lin tc th tch ca cc bin php thu li, hng ti vic a vo cc sn xut nng nghip cc t mi nh - t kh hn hoc rt m t. C ti cng nh tiu gy nh hng ln ti ti nguyn t nhin ca nc ngt trn lnh th ti tiu, tuy nhin tnh cht v cng ca nh hng ny khc nhau ph thuc vo dng thc hin bin php. Tp trung xem xt ring nh hng ca ti v tiu ln s thay i cn cn nc, ch i tng nc, s thay i cht lng nc mt trn lnh th ti tiu.

nh hng ca ti. Ti gy nh hng ln ti ch nc v ti nguyn nc lnh th. Di nh hng ca ti thay i dng chy trung bnh nm, s phn b trong nm ca chng, cc gi tr cc tr ca dng chy (c bit l dng chy cc tiu). em mui t mng nc ti dn ti vic tng khong ho ca nc trong sng, dn ti s thay i thnh phn ho hc ca chng. Tnh cht v cng thay i ca cc c trng k trn ph thuc vo nhiu iu kin: a l t nhin, thu vn, thu ho v thm ch c k thut (phng php ti, trng thi k thut ca h thng ti v.v..).
nh hng ca ti trn cc c trng dng chy sng ngi lit k khc nhau i vi cc sng nh, c nui dng ch yu l dng chy mt, v i vi cc h thng sng ln, chia ct mi lp cp nc di t. Trn cc lu vc nh, trong vng cp nc ti chi ph ton b cho bc hi nn dn ti s gim hoc chm dt hon ton dng chy cc sng b. Trn cc sng ln, sau khi s dng nc ti, dng chy ra c th gim i cht t hoc thm ch khng thay i. Phng n cui c ch ng trn cc lu vc, ni cng vi ti thc hin cc bin php kinh t khc (dit c hoang, gim nc sng v gim thi gian ngp bi bi v.v..), chi phi vic gim bc hi v b tr cho vic tng bc hi trn din tch ti. Tuy nhin s thay i dng chy khng ng k nh vy trn cc sng ln ca cc vng c ti ch ng n mt gii hn nht nh (ph thuc vo cc iu kin a l khu vc, s hin din ca cc nhn t b tr, din tch t ti trn lu vc v cc nhn t khc)., sau dng chy bt u gim r rt. S gim dng chy do tc ng ca ti khc nhau ng k trong cc nm thuc pha nc khc nhau. Trong cc nm m t, s suy gim ny khng ng k, cn cc nm kh hn - dng chy sng gim rt mnh. nh hng ca ti ln s phn phi dng chy trong nm v cc gi tr thc nghim gy ra nh sau - gim dng chy vo thi k tng trng (do tng tn tht nc qua s tot hi nc) v tng dng chy vo ma thu v ng, khi m din ra dng nhp lu t cc mng ti vo mng li thu vn. S thay i thnh phn ho hc v cht lng nc trong vng t ti c chi phi bi s ti mui t cc mng ti. Lng mui xm nhp vo sng l hng chc, cn trong iu kin t nhim mn l hng trm tn trn mt ha. a mt lng mui nh vy vo sng lm tng ng k khong ho ca nc v lm thay i thnh phn ho hc ca n. Mc tng khong ho ph thuc vo t s

109

lu lng nc sng v lu lng nc hon li, vo t s khong ho ca chng, vo phn trm t ti v tng din tch lu vc sng ngi v.v.. Xm nhp vo nc sng bng cch ngm dn ti s tng khong ho ca nc trong . Khi nh hng gy nn bi dng chy t cc mng ti t l thun vi phn trm din tch ca n trong din tch lu vc.

nh hng ca tiu. Trong nc ta hin nay c khong 10 triu ha m ly v t tha m. nh hng ca tiu gy ra ch yu n s thay i cn cn nc ca lnh th ti tiu (thay i iu kin dng chy t m ly, gim mc nc ngm trong i thng kh v.v..) v thay i cc c trng thu vn ca cc sng ly ho (dng chy nm, cc i v cc tiu, s phn b trong nm ca n). Khi , bin php tiu nh hng theo cch khc nhau n ch nc sng, ph thuc vo cc iu kin kh hu, th nhng, a l thu vn ca lu vc, vo mc m ly ho ca chng, dng m ly c tiu, tnh cht ti tiu ca t v.v..; trong mt s trng hp nh hng ny khng ng k, cn trong cc trng hp khc li th hin rt r rng. Mc d c khc nhau ca cc kt qu nghin cu ca cc tc gi khc nhau vn c th a ra cc kt lun chng v tng quan xu th thay i dng chy sng ngi cc lu vc ti tiu trong vng tha v m nh sau:
- trong nhng nm u tin ca tiu din ra, hin nhin l, tng dng chy mu v dng chy nm, chi phi bi s gim bc hi tng cng v s h tr lng nc ngm; - tip theo, khi khai thc tch cc t tiu ng ch dng chy tr nn n nh, bc hi (do s tot hi) tng, dng chy nm tin v gi tr ban u; - modun dng chy cc i c th tng cng c th gim. Mt trong nhng nhn t chnh lm thay i dng chy cc i l tnh cht thay i ca dung tch tch t ca lu vc. Trong cc lu vc sng ngi, bn thu nc cu to bi t thm tt, sau khi tiu quan st thy s h thp lu lng cc i, cn trn cc lu vc cu to bi cc t th nhng t thm li thy s tng ca i lng ny. Cc tnh cht thu l ca t th nhng xc nh tnh cht thay i th tch dng chy l xun v phn phi dng chy trong nm. i vi lu vc cu to bng t thm tt, s h th tch l xun c b bi s tng dng chy ma kit, tc l phn b li dng chy trong nm. xc nh s h lu lng cc i di nh hng ca tiu, tun theo quan h nh sau :

= 1 0,016 f m

(4.5)

vi - h s tnh n s gim lu lng cc i do bin php tiu; fm - mc tiu ca lu vc, %. Tnh n s thay i ca lu lng cc i l xun cho php gim kch thc ca cng trnh k thut thu v dn ti s h gi thnh ca chng. V tng th, s h lu lng cc i v tng dng chy vo thi k nc kit c th xem nh l s thay i tt do bin php tiu mang li.

4.2.5 S thay i cht lng nc trong h cha

Thnh lp h cha dn ti s thay i ch thu ho v cht lng nc trong n so vi nc sng trn n c xy dng. S hnh thnh ch thu ho h cha v cht lng nc trong din ra di nh hng ca hng lot cc nhn t, trong s ch yu l thu ho ca dng nhp, s thay i ch nc v cc qu trnh thu sinh trong thu vc. Tc ng chnh n s thay i ch thu ho l cng trao i nc trong h cha (mc chy):

110

K = Whc / Wn
vi Whc - th tch h cha ; Wn - dng chy nm. K cng tng th cng t thay i ch khang ho nc trong ch so vi nc ca sng nui dng n. Gia khong ho trung bnh ca nc trong h cha I h v khong ho trung bnh ca nc trong sng vi I s s trao i nc khc nhau (K > 1) ta c quan h:
Ih Is

= 0 ,99

0 ,26 K

(4.6)

Quan h cho php khi thit k h cha tnh c khong ho d kin trong (i vi cc gi tr c th ca I s v K) S thay i cht lng nc trong cc h cha c chi phi bi s thay i ch nc cng nh cc qu trnh sinh hc trong thu vc. S gim vn tc dng chy, s tng trong sut, s xut hin cc thang nhit v kh khi tng hm lng cc cht hu c v biogen trong nc ( do cun theo t t nm trn cao, do s xm nhp ca nc thi cng nghip, nc thi cng cng v nng nghip) dn ti vic tng t ngt cc qu trnh sn xut sinh hc trong cc h cha. Lm giu nc bng cc cht biogen gy nn s pht trin tng cng ca phitoplanton, dn ti vic nc i mu. Nu nh i sang mu xanh l cy (c trng cho kh hu n i v nhit i) th trong to nn cc loi to, cht lng nc gim, xut hin mi hi, v v kh chu. Nc bt u bt li cho s ung. Trong thi k suy thoi mt sinh khi ln vi sinh vt hay i thc vt lm ti i t ngt cht lng nc, lm gim hm lng xy ho tan, xut hin cc mi kh chu. Hin tng ny (thay i cht lng nc do ph v tin trnh t nhin ca qu trnh sinh hc) c gi l nhim bn th sinh (sinh hc). Hin nay vn i mu ca nc c ch c bit. Cc nghin cu sinh hc chng minh rng to lc c trong thin nhin k th v k hu dit. cng b hn 20 loi virut cn tr ti vic pht trin ca loi to ny. Ngoi ra, tin hnh cc kho st trong lnh vc nghin cu cc ho cht tr kh cc hot ng c hi cu to lc. gn gi cht lng nc trong cc h cha cn lm sch k lng y h khi thc vt v nhim bn trc khi cp nc, cn nghim chnh tun th thi hn v nh mc thu dn trn cc lnh th xung quanh, hn ch t mi pha nng bigen trong nc thi vo h cha, chn v tr trong vng c trong sut cao nht v.v..

4.3. CC BIN PHP BO V NC MT KHI NHIM BN

Bo v nc khi nhim bn c hiu l cc bin php m bo trng thi bnh thng ca i tng nc (tng ng vi php ch nc ang tn ti) trong iu kin cht ch th s dng nc. Thc hin cc bin php ny i hi gii quyt hng lot cc vn khoa hc v k thut, cc vn chnh trong s l: - chun ho cht lng nc, tc l son tho cc ch tiu ph hp i vi cc dng nhu cu dng nc khc nhau; - gim th tch thi nhim bn vo thu vc, bng cch hon thin cc qu trnh cng ngh v ci tin phng php lm sch nc thi; - nghin cu v tnh ton cc qu trnh t lm sch nc thi khi chng xung thu vc. Gii quyt ng b cc vn ny v a chng vo thc tin kinh t nc cho php thc hin nhim v bo v ti nguyn nc, s dng chng hp l, to iu kin tng trng kinh t v nng cao hiu qu sn xut x hi.

111

4.3.1.Chun ho cht lng nc

Bng 4.2. Yu cu chung i vi thnh phn v tnh cht ca nc cho cc sng ung v ch nh ring Ch tiu thnh phn v tnh cht nc thu vc Cht l lng Tp cht ni Mi v v Sc t Nhit pH Thnh phn khong hc xy ho tan Nhu cu xy sinh hc Mm bnh Cht c hi Cp nc cho sinh hot v kinh t cc loi Khng qu 0,25 mg/l Khng c c vt ni, mng v vt nh Ty clo 20 cm
o

tm, th thao v ngh dng Khng qu 0,75 mg/l Trc tip 10 cm

Khng qu trung bnh nhiu nm 3 C mu h Khng qu pH = 6,5 - 8,5 Khng qu 350mg/l Clo, 500 mg/l Sun fat v 1000mg/l tng cng Khng t hn 4 mg/l trc 12 gi 3,0 mg/l Khng cha mm gy bnh Khng cha tp cht c hi 6,0 mg/l Cao hn mt cht

Trong nc ta chun ho cht lng nc cc thu vc c thc hin tun theo "Cc tiu chun cht lng mi trng TCVN,2000" v Lut Mi trng. Mc ch son tho v khng nh php lut l cnh bo v tit tr nhim bn bi nc thi cc sng, h, h cha, ao, cc knh nhn to s dng cung cp nc ung v cc nhu cu cng cng khc ca c dn cng nh cho ng nghip. Trong cc vn bn phn ho cc yu cu n thnh phn v tnh cht ca nc i vi tng dng nhu cu dng nc v nhn mnh cc nguyn tc trch nhim bo v mi nh dng nc. Trong trng hp s dng ng thi thu vc i vi cc nhu cu khc nhau ca nn kinh t quc dn cn xut pht t nhng yu cu cht ch nht trong hng lot ch tiu trng hp ca cht lng nc. c bit lu rng, cm vo thu vc nc thi cha cc ph liu gi tr, cc nhin liu sn xut v.v.., chng c th tiu hu bng cng ngh phng x. iu kin nm nc thi vo thu vc c xc nh tnh n mc xo trn c th, khi thnh phn v tnh cht ca nc sng hay thu vc cn phi ph hp vi tiu chun tuyn o phn b cch 1 km vi im nhu cu dng nc gn nht. Yu cu chung i vi thnh phn v tnh cht ca nc cho cc sng ung v ch nh ring c dn trong bng 4.2, cn i vi cc thu vc, s dng cho ngh c - trong bng 4.3. Vi s dng ung hoc ch nh ring cc i tng nc cho 11 ch tiu thnh phn v cht lng nc, cn i vi 420 cht c hi xc nh nng gii hn cho php (PDK), c th c trong thu vc v trm kim sot. i vi thu vc, s dng cho ngh c c 8 ch tiu v 72 cht c hi.
Bng 4.3 Yu cu chung i vi thnh phn v tnh cht ca nc s dng trong ng nghip Ch tiu thnh phn v tnh cht nc thu vc Cht l lng Tp cht ni Mi v v v sc t Nhit pH xy ho tan Khng qu 0,25 mg/l Khng c c vt ni, mng v vt nh Ty clo, 20 cm Khng qu pH = 6,5 - 8,5 Khng t hn 4 mg/l trc 12 gi Trc tip,10 cm Khng qu trung bnh nhiu nm 3 oC mu h Khng qu 0,75 mg/l Ng nghip v nui trng thu sn Khng dng nui trng thu sn

112

Nhu cu xy sinh hc Cht c hi

6,0 mg/l Khng cha tp cht c hi

4,0 mg/l

Nng gii hn cho php cc cht c hi c xc nh bi cc bc s v sinh dch t, cc nh sinh hc v c khng nh cp an ton nht. Mi cht c hi theo nh hng ca mnh trn c th con ngi v i sng thu vc c chia ra ba hng ( ch tiu c hi ti hn - LPV): - cht lm thay i tnh cht sng ca nc (mu, mi, v); - cht nh hng n trng thi v sinh chung ca thu vc ( c th l vn tc chy ca cc qu trnh t lm sch) - cht gy nh hng ti cc c quan ca con ngi v thu sinh vt (cht gy bnh). Trong cc vn bn ch ra rng, hm lng mi cht c hi trong thu vc khng c vt qu PDK. Nu nh trong thnh phn ca nc thi cha mt s cht c hi th tnh ton nng cho php ca chng trong nc thu vc c nhiu cch tim cn khc nhau, ph thuc vo vic chng thuc vo mt nhm hay cc nhm LPV khc nhau. Nu nh cht c hi gn vi cc nhm LPV khc nhau , th mi cht trong c th c nng ti hn cho php khc nhau. Nu cc cht c hi thuc vo mt nhm theo LPV th nng ca chng cn phi gim sao cho tng t l ca chng trong PDK khng vt qu 1:

Cn C1 C2 + + ... + 1 PDK 1 PDK 2 PDK n

(4.7)

Khi gii quyt vn v kh nng tho nc thi vo thu vc ngi ta thc hin vic nh gi trng thi v sinh ca n theo cng thc (1.4). Nu nh

PDKi

C1

ln hn 1 th vic tho nc thi cng nghip vo i tng nc trong

nng theo k hoch b cm. Tnh ton nng vt cht nhim bn trong tuyn o kim tra c thc hin vi vic tnh n ln pha long th n, c tnh theo quan h:

n=

Q + Qt Qt

(4.8)

vi Q - lu lng trung bnh thng sut m bo 95%, m3/s; Qt - lu lng dng chy cng nghip, m3/s. Tnh ti vic pha long nng trn tuyn o kim tra (Ckt) s bng:

S t

= (D

Q t 1 S 2S ) +D 2 H r r r

(4.9)

vi Ct - nng ch th xem xt trong nc thi. Nng tnh ton trong tuyn o kim tra c so snh vi PDK i vi vic nh gi c kh nng hay khng c kh nng nc thi cng nghip vo i tng cho. S khng ph hp ca Ckt vi yu cu ca chun dn ti vic nht thit phi tng mc lm sch, gim th tch nc thi, trang b ni tp trung v thi vi cc iu kin thu vn thun li v.v.. Li gii cc vn ny c thc hin vi s xem xt ng b mi nh mc v bo v thin nhin - gim lng nhim bn, tnh n cc qu trnh t lm sch, kim tra vic tun th cc nguyn tc bo v v.v..

4.3.2. Cc phng php cng trnh bo v nc

Nn tng k thut trong vn bo v nc ho ln vo vic s dng hp l ti nguyn nc, h thp s nhim bn ti a cc ngun nc, m bo vic cung cp nc cho nn kinh t quc dn

113

lng nc cn thit v cht lng nc c yu cu. Cc phng php cng trnh bo v nc cha ng khng ch cc son tho phng php lm sch nc thi m cn hon thin cng ngh sn xut cho php rt bt hay loi b hon ton s xm nhp bn vo cc i tng nc. Cc bin php nh thit lp cc s k thut, loi b hon ton vic nc thi vo sng v thu vc, em lai s cp nc kn hay quay vng, tn dng ph liu sn xut, thay th lm lnh hi nc bng khng kh, chuyn nc s dng sang x nghip khc i hi cc yu cu mm hn ti cht lng nc, cn phi ng mt vai tr ng k trong vic chm dt nhim bn sng ngi v thu vc. Lm sch nc thi l bin php bt buc v t , b chi phi hin nay bi cc qu trnh cng ngh trn cc x nghip cng nghip cha hon chnh trong kha cnh s dng nc. Ngy nay vic lm sch nc thi c xem nh l phng php ch yu bo v nc khi nhim bn. Vn lm sch nc thi ca cc x nghip v cc im dn c trc khi n xung cc thu vc l hon ton phc tp do s phong ph cc cht nhim bn, s xut hin trong thnh phn ca chng cc hp cht mi, s phc tp ho thng xuyn thnh phn ca chng. Nc thi c th chia ra hai nhm ln: nc thi cng nghip v nc thi cng cng khc bit nhau theo tnh cht v thnh phn. Phng php x l nc thi p dng ngy nay nc ta v ngoi quc c th chia ra hai nhm: phng php x l trong iu kin nhn to (trn cc cng trnh v trm chuyn dng) v phng php x l trong iu kin t nhin (trn t ti, ng thm, vng sinh hc v v.v..). La chn phng php lm sch xc nh bi thnh phn v nng cht nhim bn trong nc thi.

4.3.3 X l nc thi trong iu kin nhn to

Phng php x l nc thi trong iu kin nhn to rt a dng, nhng chng c th phn thnh 4 dng c bn: x l c hc, ho hc, l ho v sinh ho hc.

X l c hc c p dng tch ra khi nc thi cc hp cht hu c v v c trn ln khng ho tan bng cch lng, lc, quay ly tm, sng. i vi x l c hc ngi ta s dng cc li phn lc cu to khc nhau nh sng, li, .... Li v sng thng ng vai tr bo v ngn cc ht kch c ln nh ph liu sn xut lm hu hoi cc cng trnh. Lc si dng tch khi nc thi ct v cc vt liu lng ng. Cng vi cc hp cht khong khi lc cn gi li cc cht c ngun gc hu c m ln thu lc ca chng gn vi ln thu lc ca ct. Cc cng trnh ny da trn s lng ng ca cc phn t l lng cha trong nc thi khi thay i iu kin ng hc ca dng. Tho c im ch to phn bit ra cc loi thng ng, nm ngang v quay vng.
x l nc thi khi cc hn hp c hc ngi ta cng p dng chu trnh thu, nh n tch ra cc cht t dng chy di tc ng ca lc ly tm, xut hin trong chuyn ng quay ca cht lng. Bi lc ly tm c th ln hn khong hng trm ln lc trng trng v tng t l thun vi vn tc lng ng ca phn t. iu ny dn n th tch v din tch chim bi chu trnh thu hng trm v hng chc ln nh hn li sng cng cng sut. Theo s liu ca Vin nghin cu khoa hc ton Lin bang v cp nc, knh dn, cng trnh k thut thu v a cht thu vn cng trnh vic p dng chu trnh thu lm gim chi ph nhiu ln cho cng trnh x l nc.

X l ho hc v l ho c p dng i vi vic tch khi nc thi cc hp cht ho tan v c mn v v cc cht hu c kh lm sch bng phng php sinh hc bng cch phn tch, lng ng v phn hu nh cc hp cht ho hc, bng vic kt hp cc phng php tc ng vt l v ho hc. X l sinh ho hc c p dng thng vi vic tch khi nc thi cc cht phn tn th. Phng php x l sinh ho hc da trn kh nng ca mt s dng vi khun s dng n cc cht hu c c trong nc thi, l ngun sng i vi chng. Phn bit hai giai on ca qu trnh x l din

114

ra vi tc khc nhau: tp trung t nc thi cc tp cht ho tan v phn tn mng hu c v v c ln b mt vt th vi khun v sau ph hu cht c ng trong t bo vi khun bng cch a cc qu trnh ho hc vo chng. Qu trnh x l sinh ho hc c th din ra c trong iu kin nhn to ln trong iu kin t nhin. X l sinh ho hc trong iu kin nhn to c thc hin trong b lc sinh ho hc, b lc sinh ho hc vi ca nc thi phn tn, vi s truyn kh t nhin v nhn to trn b sinh hc. B lc sinh hc l mt b cha y bn hot tnh (bn hot tnh - l mt khi cc cht thnh phn khong v hu c nhiu vi khun). Khi cho nc thi i qua b lc sinh ho hc cc vi khun cun ht cc khong cht v cht hu c lm thc n cho chng nh azot t aniac, nitrit, axit amin, pht pho v kali t mui khng cc hp cht . i vi cng vic bnh thng ca b lc sinh ho bn hot tnh cn c thay th nh k. B lc sinh hc l mt cng trnh y cc vt liu nh, trn trc khi nc thi cn to nn mt mng sinh hc hot tnh bao gm khng ch cc vi khun m c cc thu sinh vt to nn qun th phc tp tham gia vo qu trnh x l.

4.3.4 X l trong cc iu kin t nhin

X l sinh ho hc c thc hin trn cc cnh ng t ti, ng lc, trn cc khu vc ti di t, trong cc vng sinh hc v knh x l. Trong mi trng hp qu trnh x l din ra v hi trong t v nc vi s tham gia ca cc qu trnh t nhin. X l sinh hc t ai bao gm vic a t t cc cht hu c ca nc thi n cc hp cht khong n gin nht di tc ng ca cc vi khun t ai c ngha ch yu. Cc vi khun ca cht lng thi tp trung vo lp t trn cng v tng nhanh tnh bo ho sinh khi. Khi , mt s trong chng b cht di tc ng ca vi khun n tht, s cn li nm trong t c iu kin thun li, nhn rng ra v t mnh tham gia vo qu trnh lm sch t khi cc hp cht hu c t nc thi a vo. t nh l mt phng th nghim t nhin, ni din ra tch cc cc qu trnh sinh hc, dn ti vic khong ho cc cht hu c cha trong nc thi v do tc ng ca chng hu nh gii phng hon ton vi khun. c bit quan trng l phng php lm sch bng t hon ton loi b cc xm nhp trc tip ca nc thi vo thu vc nc mt, tc l bo v chng khi nhim bn mt cch tt nht. ng t ti l mt din tch chuyn dng trn tin hnh x l nc thi ch nh cc cy trng khc nhau. Khi khng c cy trng cc khonh t ny c gi l ng lc. Phng php x l nc thi bng t trong thi gian gn y rt c ch , iu gii thch bng kh nng gii quyt ng thi nhim v bo v nc khi nhim bn v tng cng sn xut nng nghip. Ngoi ra, su x l nc thi cng cng cao hn khi s dng phng php th nhng. Vic m rng u n cc cng trnh x l, hon thin cng ngh sn xut, s dng nhiu ln nc trong cng nghip chc chn se em li vic hn ch th tch nhim bn, xm nhp vo th tch nc thin nhin. Tuy nhin, hin nay cn xa khng phi mi nc tha u c x l; ngoi ra vi mc hin ti ca cng ngh x l mt phn nhim bn nht nh s tn ng nc thi v dn n vic cn thit tnh ton cc qu trnh t lm sch nc thi chy qua khi chng xung thu vc. S dng vng sinh hc nh l mt thu vc nhn to su 0,5 - 1,5 m, , c chia ra mt s ngn (2 - 5). Nc trong c vo tun t theo mc x l ca n. i vi s phn b u ca nc thi trong phm vi vng nc vo v y nc ra lm mt s tp trung. Din tch vng 0,5 1,0 ha. X l kiu ny hiu qu nht vo thi gian m p trong nm. cn nhn thy rng trong trng hp ny hiu qu x l nc thi trong cc iu kin nhn to cng gn vi hiu qu x l trong t

115

nhin.

4.3.5 Bin php cng trnh

Bin php cng trnh thc y vic bo v ti nguyn nc khi nhim bn, c th phn ra cc dng lm nghip, nng nghip v thu cng. Bin php lm nghip - trng cc thc vt cy g v thn bi trong phn thng lu v trung lu ca lu vc, gim dng chy mt v lm gim qu trnh xi mn do nc. Nhm bin php nng nghip gm s tin hnh chun xc cc cng tc nh nng. Bin php thu cng - ch yu l iu tit ch nc - khng kh ca t - th nhng trng cc loi cy trng khc nhau, cn phi gi t khi b mt cc cht dinh dng. Ch ny gm cc cng vic gn gi cc thung lng, cc sn v ch bi khi b ph hu. T chc tin hnh cc bin php cng trnh tng hp cho php gim ng k s nhim bn nc t nhin. Tc ng ln ti cht lng nc l nhim bn kh quyn. vn ny c xem xt phn th nht ca gio trnh ny. Khai thc ti nguyn thin nhin gy nh hng r rt n tnh nhim bn ca mi trng nc. Khng lng c cc him ho do trn du, chy rng v v v.v.. Cc phng php nu trn cnh bo s nhim bn ti nguyn nc cn cha tnh n nhng iu . Cn c nhiu bin php gi nc khc cho php hn ch khi lng v h thp mc nhim bn nc thi. Tuy nhin cn ni r rng cc phng php ch c th tch mt phn nhim bn nc t nhin nhng khng loi b c n. Cho nn vn nc sch c th ch gii quet bng iu kin chuyn v h thng cp nc kn.

4.3.6 Qu trnh t lm sch ca nc t nhin

Nc thi khng c x l hay x l mt phn vo cc i tng nc dn ti s thay i cc tnh cht vt l v thnh phn ho hc ca chng trong nc thay i cht lng nc, nhim bn n. Trong nc thi cng cng v i tng nc b nhim bn din ra cc qu trnh phc tp dn ti vic hon li trng thi t nhin ca sng, h v h cha. T hp cc qu trnh thu ng lc, sinh ho, ho hc v vt l dn ti vic tng hp nng cc cht nhim bn trong nc v c gi l t lm sch khi nc. Trong mi quan h , cc vt cht no (tp trung hay khng tp trung) vo pha trng thi no (l lng hay ho tan) vo thu vc bi nc thi, trong qu trnh t lm sch s chim u th hoc qu trnh thu ng lc, hoc qu trnh ho hc hay sinh hc. Cc cht ho tan tp trung khng chu bi mt qu trnh chuyn ho no, nng ca chng gim ch do s pha long (qu trnh thu ng lc). Vi s hin din trong nc thi cc cht l lng trong qu trnh t lm sch khi nc s ng mt vai tr ng k trong cc qu trnh lng ng cht thi xung y (qu trnh vt l v thu ng lc). T lm sch khi nc khi cc cht ho tan khng tp trung do kt qu pha long cung nh tc ng tng h vi cc thnh t khc cha trong nc (qu trnh thu ng lc, ho hc v sinh ho). tnh ton sc ti ca sng sui v thu vc dng chy nhim bn, d bo thnh phn v tnh cht ca khi nc c tnh n t lm sch nht thit phi nh lng vai tr ca tng qu trnh trong vic chuyn ho cc cht ho tan v l lng c ngun gc hu c v v c. Tuy nhin khng phi mi qu trnh u c nghin cu mc cn thit. Lin quan ti iu ny, khi nghin cu qu trnh nhim bn v t lm sch hin nay chia ra cc hng nghin cu ch yu sau y:a) nghin cu qu

116

trnh trn l pha long nc thi trong cc thu vc v sng sui tnh n tnh bin ng ca cc nhn t thu ng lc v thu vn; b)- xc nh mi quan h thay i cht lng nc vo ch thu vn v cc c trng dng chy; c)- nghin cu s chuyn ho ho hc v ho l cc cht nhim bn trong cc i tng nc; d) - kho st qu trnh sinh ho bin dng cht nhim bn. Hai hng u tin cng vi vic son tho phng php tnh ton pha long nc thi v phng php tnh ton lng ng vt cht l lng nhim bn c th c gi l cc kha cnh thu vn hc ca vn t lm sch. Cc vn hin nay c nghin cu thnh cng hng lot cc vin nghin cu khoa hc ca nc ta v xut hng lot cc phng php k thut tnh ton cht lng nc. Bn cnh cc nhn t thu vn trong qu trnh t lm sch vai tr quan trng thuc v cc qu trnh l ho v sinh ho. Qu trnh ho hc trong nc t nhin gn cht vi qu trnh sinh hc v thng kh pht biu u l kt thc mt qu trnh v bt u qu trnh khc. Vai tr quyt nh trong lin hp ny l cc qu trnh sinh hc, tuy nhin cc qu trnh l ho l thng tr, khi m trong nc c mt cc cht nhim bn mn bc cao hay l to nn cc iu kin bt li cho s sng ca cc c th sng v thu sinh vt hot ng, khi qu trnh sinh hc c s dng ti thiu. Nghin cu cc qu trnh l ho v sinh ho chuyn dch cc cht nhim bn trong cc i tng nc c tin hnh trong nhiu cc t chc nghin cu khoa hc nc ta .Kt qu cc cng trnh cn phi phc v cho c s son tho, kim chng v hiu chnh cc phng php d bo, tnh ton mc nhim bn cng nh t lm sch cc sng sui, thy vc.

117

Phn th hai TI NGUYN NC VIT NAM

118

Chng 5 TI NGUYN NC MT VIT NAM

5.1. KHI QUT CHUNG
Vic tr thu v khai thc cc dng sng, ngoi nhng hiu bit v mng li a l thu vn v nhng c trng hnh thi ca n, cn phi c nhng hiu bit y v nhng nhn t a l nh hng n dng chy- n qu trnh hnh thnh v din bin dng chy trn cc lu vc sng. Trn c s , chng ta mi hiu bit mt cch chi tit, bn cht vt l ca nhng c trng thu vn, mi gii thch c s hnh thnh v din bin ca dng chy mt cch nh lng v chnh xc thng qua vic la chn phng php, xy dng cc cng thc tnh ton c trng ca dng chy cng nh cn bng nc ca sng ngi. Ni mt cch khc, c trng hnh thi thu vn sng ngi c hnh thnh di s nh hng tng hp ca cc nhn t a l. Nhng nhn t c quan h cht ch vi nhau v nh hng ln nhau. Nhng nhn t a l quan trng nht l kh hu, th nhng v nham thch. Ngoi ra, a hnh, cu to a cht, m ly, ao h cng c nh hng r rt. Cui cng l s hot ng kinh t ca con ngi cng c nh hng rt ln v ngy cng quan trng n s hnh thnh v din bin dng chy ca sng ngi. Chng ta bit rng, mi quan h tng h gia dng chy v mi trng a l rt phc tp, kh c th phn bit mt cch tht chnh xc vai tr nh hng ca mi nhn t a l vi dng chy

5.2. TI NGUYN NC MA
Trong cc nhn t a l t nhin th kh hu l nhn t c bn, ng vai quan trng nht trong qu trnh hnh thnh v din bin dng chy sng ngi. Trong iu kin kh hu nhit i m ca nc ta, ma l hnh thc nc ri duy nht. Do s lng v tnh cht ca nc ma cng s bc hi t lu vc quyt nh tim nng ca dng chy sng ngi. Ma v bc hi l cc yu t kh hu tham gia trc tip vo cn cn nc ca mi lu vc sng c th. Vi v tr t nhin nm trn bn o ng Dng, tim cn vi hai i dng ln l Thi Bnh Dng v n Dng v iu kin kh hu nhit i m, gi ma ca nc ta th hin rt r rt lng ma trung bnh trong nhiu nm v tng quan gia lng ma v lng bc hi nm. Tht vy, xt trn ton lnh th nc ta, th lng ma trung bnh nhiu nm khong 1960mm. So vi lng ma trung bnh cng v (100-200 Bc) th nc ta c lng ma kh di do, gp 2,4 ln. Ch nhng ni khut gi m th lng ma trung bnh nm mi gim xung di 1000 mm. Quy lut phn b ca lng ma trung bnh nhiu nm khng u trong khng gian, ph thuc vo cao a hnh v hng ca sn n gi m. Cc trung tm ma ln c hnh thnh trn lnh th nh: Mng Ci 2800 mm - 3000 mm, Bc Quang 4765 mm, Hong Lin Sn 2600 mm - 3000 mm, Mng T 2600 - 2800 mm, Honh Sn 3500 mm - 4000 mm, Tha Lu 2600 - 3662 mm, Tr Mi - Ba

119

T 2600 - 3400mm, Sng Hinh 2500 mm, Bo Lc 2876 mm, Hai trung tm ma ln nht nc ta l Bc Quang v Ba Na t 5013 mm. Vng c lng ma ln ko di t v tuyn 15 0B n 160B, thng gi l v tuyn nc. Ngc li, nhng trung tm ma nh c hnh thnh nhng vng thp, khut, hoc nm song song vi hng gi m, o l cc vng: An Chu 1000 mm - 1200 mm, Sn La 1000 mm - 1300 mm, Mng Xn 800 mm - 1000 mmm, c bit Phan Rang, Phan R ch t 650 mm. Vng c lng ma nh ko di Duyn Hi cc nam Trung B t v tuyn 100B n v tuyn 120B l vng t ma kh in hnh nc ta. Vng ven bin Ninh Thun, Bnh Thun c lng ma nm nh nht c nc (500 - 600mm). S phn b ma trong nm rt khng u v chia thnh hai ma r rt: ma ma v ma kh. Do chu nhiu nh hng ca cc khi khng kh tng phn nhau gia Bc v Nam nn thi im bt u v kt thc ma ma cng chnh lch nhau gia ni sm nht v mun nht n 4 thng. Bc B, c ma ma t thng V n thng X, thng XI. Trung B, Ty Nguyn v Nam B c ma ma mun hn t thng VIII, IX n thng XI, XII. Khu vc khu IV c cn c ma tiu mn. Trong ma ma lng ma chim khong 70 - 90% tng lng ma nm. Mng li trm o ma nc ta c hnh thnh t cui th k XIX, u th k XX, sm nht l trm Lng, hot ng t nm 1890. Trong thi gian chin tranh nhiu trm phi ngng hot ng. Tnh n nm 1980 c khong 1190 im quan trc ma. T 1991, Tng cc Kh tng Thu vn quy hoch li mng li trm o ma theo ng tiu chun. Theo quy hoch ny c nc c 765 im o ma (bng 5.1)
Bng 5.1. S trm o ma ti cc vng TT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ng bng Bc B Bc Trung B Nam Trung B Ty Nguyn ng Nam B Ty Nam B C nc Vng Min ni v trung du Bc B Tng s 267 87 110 83 56 51 111 765 T ghi 52 14 25 16 12 7 11 137 Mt * 397 129 465 544 1002 460 356 433

* km / trm
Theo kt qu cng b ca Chng trnh 48A do Tng cc KTTV ch tr, lng ma mt ngy ln nht trung bnh nhiu nm t 150 - 200 mm, ng vi tn sut 1% t 300 - 350mm. Lng ma 3 ngy ln nht trung bnh t 200 - 250mm, tng ng vi tn sut 1% l 500 - 600 mm. Lng ma 5 ngy ln nht trung bnh nhiu nm t 250 - 300 mm, ng vi tn sut 1% l 620 -650mm. Do a hnh a dng, cu trc sn vn nn s phn d kh hu v km theo n l lng ma b phn ho r rt theo lnh th v chi phi mnh m n s hnh thnh dng chy mt, c bit l dng chy sng ngi (Nguyn Vit Ph, V Vn Tun, Trn Thanh Xun, 2003) Nhng vng ma ln nh vng Vi Li thuc tm ma ln Mng Ci, lng ma trung bnh t ti 2334 mm; vng Hong Lin Sn, t ti 2180mm ti T Thng, vng Bc Quang trn 3000 mm, Mng T trn 2000 mm, vng Honh Sn ti sng Ro Ci, Ro Tro, ti 1800 mm - 2400 mm. Vng ma ln Bc o Hi Vn, xp x 2000 mm, ti sng Hu Trch l 1973mm; vng ma ln Tr Mi - Ba T, Ba Na, vt trn 2000 mm; sng Bng 2070mm, sng Tranh 2303 mm v sng V 2372 mm. Qu vo pha nam c sng Hinh cng t trn 1500 mm. trung tm ma ca sng ng Nai t ti 1100

120

mm - 1428 mm. S lp li phn b ca ma cng c th hin kh r i vi cc trung tm ma nh nh ti Chi Lng 470 mm, Thc Vai 391 mm, Ca Ro 583 mm, sng Lu 316 mm. Yu t ma khng nhng nh hng n dng chy mt phn b trong khng gian nh cp trn y, m cn nh hng n tnh bin ng ca dng chy theo thi gian. Thy vy, ch ma nh hng ln n ch dng chy sng ngi nc ta. Kh hu nc ta c s phn ho theo ma r rt, trn ton lnh th, u cng c mt ma kh vi lng ma thp hn lng bc hi v mt ma ma. Do dng chy sng ngi cng tng ln theo ma, ma l ng vi ma ma v ma cn ng vi ma kh (t ma).

5.3. TI NGUYN NC SNG NGI

Sng ngi Vit Nam c nui dng bi mt ngun nc ma di do, l h qu hot ng ca cc khi kh v hon lu gi ma. Ma l l ma nc sng dng cao ng vi ma ma, v tng ng ma cn - ma nc trong sng tng i n nh ng vi ma kh. Ma l ko di t 4 - 5 thng. Vng Bc B, ma l ko di t thng VI, VII n thng IX, X; sn ng dy Trng Sn t thng VIII n thng XI, XII. Ma cn ko di t 7 - 8 thng, c ni ti 9 thng. Tuy thi gian ma l ngn nhng lng dng chy chim t 65 - 90% tng lng dng chy nm. Mt s lu vc sng ngi Min Trung cn quan st thy l tiu mn. Thi im ma l bt u v kt thc vng ny cng bin ng mnh do nh hng ca vng kh hu chuyn tip t Bc vo Nam. Vo u ma l, do cc trn ma cha ln li chu tn tht lm m cc lu vc nn quy m cc trn l nh. Nhng trn l ln thng i km vi cc hnh th thi tit nh bo, hi t nhit i, p thp ... Tu theo khu vc tm ma c hnh thnh to nn cc nt c th l trn cc sng ring bit.Dao ng nhiu nm ca dng chy sng ngi Vit Nam c trng bi cc chu k nhiu nm nc ln v nc nh khng ging nhau trn cc h thng sng. Sng Vit Nam nhn mt lng nc ln xm nhp t ngoi lnh th quc gia. Gn 2/3 lng nc sng l lng nc ngoi lai, c im ny cn c ch khi nghin cu ti nguyn nc v khi cc nc lng ging dng nhiu nc th lng nc vo nc ta s gim, ngoi ra cn ko theo s nhim bn ngun nc dn n suy gim cht lng nc. Vic th hin phc tp trong s phn ho theo khng gian v bin ng theo thi gian l nhng c im chnh ca ngun ti nguyn nc mt. Tnh cht ny buc khi khai thc ti nguyn nc cn phi ch m bo s pht trin bn vng trnh lm cho n b suy thoi v cn kit.

121

Hnh 5.1. Bn ng tr lng ma trung bnh nm

122

Hnh 5.2. Bn ng tr lng ma trung bnh ma ng

123

Hnh 5.3. Bn ng tr lng ma trung bnh ma h

124

Hnh 5.4. Bn s ngy ma trung bnh nm

125

Hnh 5.5. Bn lng bc hi trung bnh nm

126

Hnh 5.6. Bn dng tr m un dng chy nm

127

5.3.1. Dng chy mt

Theo cc cng b gn y nht, da trn cc ti liu o c v chnh l ca cc trm thu vn, tng lng dng chy trung bnh hng nm ca ton b sng sui trong lnh th Vit Nam t khong 835 km3 gm 522 km3 t ngoi chy vo v 313 km3 sinh ra trong ni a. Khong 826 km3 chy trc tip ra bin v 9 km3 chy sang Trung Quc. Dng chy mt phn b rt khng u theo lnh th. Vng ven bin Nam Trung B, Qung Ninh c mun dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm di 10l/s.km2, trong khi ti Bc Quang v pha bc o Hi Vn l 100 l/s.km2. Ma l trn cc sng xut hin chm dn t Bc vo Nam, mun nht cc vng ven bin Trung Trung B v Nam Trung B. Him ho l lt e do cuc sng ca dn c trn tt c cc trin sng. Cc hin tng thi tit thi gian gn y trong quy m bin i kh hu ton cu li lm phc tp ha bc tranh v l lt v cc him ho ny. Xt trn ton lnh th, s chi phi ca ch ma i vi ch dng chy l r rng, nhng dng chy sng ngi cn chu nh hng ca cu trc mt m lu vc. Tu thuc vo kh nng iu tit ca lu vc nhiu hay t m ch dng chy sng ngi ph thuc vo ch ma vi nhiu ch khc nhau. Nhn chung, ma l thng ngn hn ma ma 1 - 2 thng v xut hin chm hn ma ma khong 1 thng. Nhng, trong nhiu trng hp cc nhn t ca mt m ng vai tr ca nhn t nh hng tri i vi ch dng chy. l trng hp cc lu vc sng va v nh, lng sng khng thu nhn c ton b nc ngm. nhng vng vi nhiu hoc t bazan c tng phong ho su, kh nng thm ln th ch dng chy th hin s nh hng ca mt m rt r rt. Nh Ty Nguyn, do kh nng thm ca t v cui ma kh rt ln trong khi ma u ma li li cch on, cng nh, to ra mt ma l chm hn ma ma ti 1,5-2 thng. nh hng ca nhn t kh hu gim nhng nh hng ca mt m tng ln, tr thnh nhn t tri trong s hnh thnh ch sng ngi. Ngoi yu t ma, yu t bc hi t b mt lu vc cng tham gia trc tip vo cn cn nc ca sng ngi, nh hng r rt n s hnh thnh ca dng chy. nc ta c nn nhit cao, trn ton lnh th nhit trung bnh nm u vt qu 21 0C min Bc, v 25 oC min Nam. Nhit cao lm cho qu trnh bc hi trn lu vc sng t Bc vo Nam u kh ln. Lng bc hi trung bnh nm ton lnh th l 953mm, so vi lng ma trung bnh nm th h s bc hi l 0,48, nh hn khong 35% so vi cng v . Ma cn ko di 6 - 9 thng, lng nc chim 20 - 30% tng lng dng chy nm v bin i mnh gia cc nm. Giai on u ma cn, l giai on chuen tip, nc trong sng cn ln, i khi cn c l cui ma. Giai on kit nht khi ngun nui dng sng ch yu do nc ngm, ko di trong vi thng, chim 1 - 2% tng lng dng chy nm. Giai on cui ma cn thng c l sm xut hin. Ring cc sng ngi Trung B gia ma cn c khi xut hin l vo tit tiu mn. Tm li ma v bc hi l hai yu t quan trng nht ca kh hu nh hng n dng chy, n quyt nh tim nng dng chy sng ngi nc ta. Nhn t kh hu c nh hng quyt nh n s phn b ca dng chy trong khng gian v phn b theo thi gian.

128

Hnh 5.7. Bn ng tr m un dng chy l

129

Hnh 5.8. Bn ng tr m un dng chynh nht

130

Qui lut v s nh hng ca kh hu n dng chy nc ta c khng nh kh r thng qua quan h gia ma v dng chy. So vi cc nhn t khc th quan h gia ma v dng chy c mi quan h cht ch hn c. ngha ca vn ny l nc ta trong s hnh thnh dng chy sng ngi th ma ng vai tr quyt nh c v lng v ch dng chy trong nm cng nh phn b trong khng gian. S nh hng ca phn b kh hu ti dng chy c nh liu qua thc t ti liu o c v tnh ton thng chim khong 80-90%. Cc nhn t nh hng khc thuc mt m ca lu vc nh hng n dng chy khong t 10-20%. T kt qu nghin cu qui lut nh hng ca kh hu i vi dng chy cho php thit lp quan h gia lng ma v lng dng chy cho cc khu vc trn ton lnh th. Nhn chung h s tng quan u t rt cao, phn ln u t trn 0,85. Trong tng khu vc u c h s tng quan cao; cn c vo phng trnh tng quan c xc nh cho php suy t lng ma ra lng dng chy v sai s cho php. iu ny c bit quan trng v c ngha thc tin i vi vic tnh ton lng dng chy cho nhng lu vc khng c ti liu hoc ti liu dng chy cha di. Ti nguyn nc mt mt s vng lnh th Vit Nam theo Phm Quang Hnh, c phn b trn lnh th theo 7 vng kinh t nng nghip: 1. Vng i ni Bc B gm ton vng i ni t v tuyn 21 tr ra. Din tch ca vng 98,2 nghn km2 vi dn s 8 triu. Vng ny bao gm cc kiu cu trc cn cn nc ca kiu cnh quan t rng na rng l, rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i ni cao ti rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i. c im chung ca cc kiu cnh quan ny l s c mt ca ma kh hanh v m. Vng kinh t Bc B c ti nguyn nc phong ph. Lng dng chy ton phn 948 mm, lng nc ngm 354 mm, lng tr m 1124mm, chng tng ng vi khi lng nc. Dng chy sng ngi 93 t m3 dng chy ngm 35 t m3 v nc trong t 120 t m3. Do s tp trung ca l, dng chy mt t 594 mm ng vi 58 t m3 nc. Mc m bo nc sng ngi v nc ngm tnh theo u ngi l 11,6 nghn m3 v 4,4 nghn m3 trong nm. Trong a hnh i ni chia ct, pht trin cng nghip c ti y b hn ch. V vy lng nc trong t c ngha ln v vai tr ca lp ph thc vt vi t cch iu tit nc trong t ng vai tr quan trng i vi canh tc khng ti nc trong ma kh. vi vng ny vic t chc xen k trong khng gian cc cy trng nng nghip v lm nghip nh nhng di rng va phng h v va khai thc l ht sc ti u. Vng ny thuc khu vc nui dng cc sng ng bng. Trong vng ny xy dng mt h cha ln nh Thc B trn sng Chy vi dung tch 3,6 t m3 nc. Nhng h cha ny to ra nhng ngun thu in quan trng i vi s pht trin kinh t ng bng v trung du Bc B. 2. Vng ng bng Bc B vi din tch 17,4 nghn km2 v dn s 11,8 triu ngi, mt vng ng dn nht Vit Nam. Din tch trng la chim ti 43% din tch, bng 751 nghn ha, song ngun nc a phng khng ln. Lp dng chy sng ngi a phng 762 mm, dng chy ngm vo sng 354 mm, dng chy trong t 1179 mm, tng ng khi lng nm 13 t m3, 3 t m3 v 20 t m3, tnh theo u ngi, mi ngi dn 1000 m3 dng chy sng v 250 m3 nc ngm vo sng. tin hnh hai v la trn tch 751,000 ha, ring ma kh cn ti 9,6 t m3 nc ch yu l nc ngm trong sng. Song nc ngm trong sng a phng ch c 3 t m3, cn li 6,6 t m3 nc phi ly t ngun nc ngm ngoi lai, m chng ta c 40 t m3. Gia lc kh hn, s nc ngoi lai khng ch cn cho ti m cho nc sinh hot, cng nghip cc loi nhit in v chng xm nhp mn do thu triu. Ngc li v ma l, li sng ng bng phi tiu trn 75 t m3 dng chy mt ngoi lai trc khi i qua Th H Ni, do trong trng hp nguy him phi tho nc qua p y lm trn ngp phn pha ng ca ng bng. 3. Vng kinh t th 3 nm gia 210 v 150 v bc vi din tch 52.000 km2 v dn s 7,4 triu ngi. Din tch t nng nhip khng cao. Song vng ny chim hng 2 v giu nc. Lp dng

131

chy sng bng 1338 mm, dng ngm 424 mm, lng tr m 1206 mm ng vi khi lng 69 t m3, 22 t m3 v 63 t m3. Mc bo m c tnh theo u ngi, dng chy sng l 9,3 nghn m3 v 3 nghn m3 dng chy ngm. ng v mt sinh thi cy trng, vng ny c ma kh ngn v cc cu trc cc thnh phn cn cn nc theo kiu cnh quan rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i. Nhng mc tp trung ca dng chy mt cao vi 914 mm, 47 t m3 - 63% dng chy ton phn ni ln s e do ca nn lt. C iu kin thun li l l y tuy mnh nhng ngn, do ngp t khi ko di. 4. Vng kinh t th 4 l vng thun li v ti nguyn nc vi mc m bo nc theo u ngi 11,8 nghn m3 dng chy sng v 3,3 nghn m3 dng chy ngm. V khi lng nc cc loi gm 68 t m3 dng chy sng, 19 t m3 dng chy ngm v 40 t m3 nc trong t ng vi cc lp dng chy 1524 mm, 424 mm v 900 mm. Vng ny bao gm nhiu ng bng nh ngn bi cc dy ni m ngang. Hu ht t ai canh tc trn cc thm ph sa c hin i. Do a hnh trn nc tt v t ai c thnh phn c gii nh nn h nng l hn, h ma l lt. Vng ny rt cn cc h cha nh iu tit v cng rt thun li cho s pht trin cc loi ny. y l vng u tin nc ta nhn c nc chuyn t cc h thng sng ng Nai v ng bng duyn hi thng qua h thng thu in a Nhim. Trn mt khong ng bng khng rng, s phi hp ca ni hng v v ng la xanh m m, nhng h khng su, nc trong ho vi mu xanh ca bin lm cho vng ny c v p kh t. 5.Vng kinh t th 5 nm trn cao nguyn sn ty Trng Sn. Cu trc ca cc thnh phn cn cn nc ging vi vng kinh t th nht. Lp dng chy sng ngi 902 mm, nc ngm 345 mm v nc trong t 1502 mm. Do mt dn thp nn nc tnh tnh theo u ngi rt cao 35,2 nghn m3 dng chy sng ngi v 13,4 nghn m3 dng chy ngm. y l vng u ngun ca cc sng vo M Kng. Bt ngun t nhng ni cao ri v cao nguyn ch dng chy sng phc tp, nhiu khi tri pha vi dng chy a phng khi v n h lu. iu s l cho vic iu tit rt phc tp, c bit i vi ti, cn phi nm vng ch nc cc sng trc khi t cc d n ti. Thu li nh y rt thch hp v hiu qu kinh t cao, th d nh: p thu in a Nhim v ng bng Phan Rang vn cha c s dng mt cch hp l, mt phn v t y km ph nhiu, v lao ng sng cn qu t. Vng kinh t ny l vng c nht ca nc ta c a hnh cao nguyn bng phng, trn ph lp bazan c tui khc nhau. Song s c mt ca ma kh r rt v phn ho rt phc tp tu thuc vo hng sn vn v cao. V vy tim nng ca t ai ch tr thnh hin thc khi iu kin ma kh c iu tit bi kh nng thm nc v gi nc ca a hnh v t. Mt iu ng lu y l nhng ni c t bazan tr thng l ni c mng li sng pht trin yu, a hnh km chia ct v do vn iu tit bng h cha ln km hu hiu. Theo d n ca sng M Kng v ca min, vng ny c th xy dng 34 cng trnh thu li, thu in ti u v mt kinh t k thut. Theo nhng s liu tnh ra: Ty Nguyn hng nm c 50 t m3 nc sng ngi trong dng chy mt 31 t m3 v 19 t m3 dng chy ngm. S 34 cng trnh h cha ln c th iu tit c 23 t m3 nc, cn li 8 t m3 nc c th cn c th iu tit bng cc h cha nh. Cc cng trnh ln c th ti 307400 ha v cho 3679 megawat in. Nh vy din tch c ti ch bng 1/20 din tch ca vng trong khi vng c ti thun li cha phi l vng t mu m, cc vng t bazan li thiu ngun. Hng pht trin cc vng chnh l xy dng cc h cha nh kt hp vi thu in nh dng nc, xy dng quy trnh trng trt theo hng nng lm kt hp vi cc bin php t chc cy trng nhm gi m chng bc hi v cc hin tng kh hn cc oan. 6. Vng kinh t th 6 l vng tng i ngho nc, hng nm thu nhn 12 t m3 dng chy

132

sng ngi (479 mm) 6 t m3 dng chy ngm (242 mm) v 43 t m3 nc trong t (1845 mm). S u th ca a hnh thm c, nhiu ni ph lp bazan dy vi chia ct yu to iu kin thun li cho pht trin cao su, cf, cy n qu. tho mn c 646 nghn ha t nng nghip hin c cn 9 t m3 nc vi lng ti 14.000 m3/ha. Lng nc yu cu cao nh vy cho thy khng th pht trin cc cy cng nhip nu khng t vn iu tit v bo v ngun nc. Hin nay trong vng ang xy dng cng trnh Du Ting trn sng B v Tr An trn sng ng Nai. Hng pht trin ca vng ny ging nh vng 5. 7.Vng kinh t thc 7 l ng bng sng M Kng. l vng c tim nng nng nghip ln, chim ti 50% t nng nghip c nc. Hin nay trn 2,5 triu ha cn trng mt v trong ma ma. Ngun nc sng ngi a phng ch c 9 t m3 trong co 2 t m3 nc ngm. Trong khi lng nc ngoi lai i vo 99,4 t m3 nc sng ngi v 33,4 t m3 nc ngm. m bo cung cp nc cho 2,5 triu ha trong ma kh cn ti 35 t m3 nc, trong khi nc sng MKng ch c th ly c 10 t m3 ngha l 1/3 ca lng nc ngm cho nhu cu, bi v nu ly hn s xy ra tai ho xm nhp mn ca thu triu v cht lng nc do thi s c nguy c b e do Trn y chng ta nh gi ti nguyn nc cng nh ca nhiu vng kinh t, nhng s liu v ti nguyn nc ht sc c c s v cng cho thy nhng vn v nc t ra cho mi vng. Song chng ta khng nhn thc ht nhng kh khn v nc nu chng ta khng xt ti c im bin ng v ti nguyn nc ca vng nhit i gi ma.

5.3.2. Cht lng nc mt

Mt trong nhng c im v cht lng nc mt ca Vit Nam l c nc sng kh ln. Lng ct bn tp trung 80 - 90% tng lng ct bn nm vo ma l. c trung bnh nm bin i t 100 g/m3 n 500 g/m3. c ln nht l cc sng trn h thng sng Hng, c ni t ti trn 1000 g/m3. Hng nm, cc sng ngi Vit Nam vn chuyn ra bin 400 - 500 triu tn ct bn, ring sng Hng khong 120 triu tn/nm. khong ho sng Vit Nam thuc loi trung bnh, khong 25 - 250 mg/l. Nc thuc loi mm v rt mm. Nhiu vng nc b nhim mn, c bit vo ma kit, v chua phn, in hnh ng bng sng Cu Long.

133

Hnh 5.9. Mt sng sui

134

Hnh 5.10. Bn a cht thu vn

Tuy nhin, v tng th cht lng nc mt l tt, t b nhim, p ng tiu chun s dng

135

nc. Vic ra tri, pha long nc sng vo ma l gip cc sng nhanh chng phc hi trng thi, cht lng nc c m bo. Song khng v th m xem nh vn chng nhim. Trong s nghip hin i ho t nc, s tng trng ca cc ngnh cng nghip, nng nghip i km qu trnh th ho gy nhim mt s on sng v nguy c nhim cao mt s sng ngi i qua cc thnh ph ln v cc khu cng nghip. y l vn thch thc i vi vic khai thc s dng nc trong tng lai.

136

Chng 6 CC H THNG SNG CHNH VIT NAM

6.1. H THNG SNG K CNG - BNG GIANG 6.1.1. Khi qut v cc iu kin mt m
H thng sng K Cng Bng Giang nm v pha ng bc ca T quc thuc a phn hai tnh Lng S v Cao Bng. Pha ty l cnh cung Ngn Sn - Yn Lc, pha nam l cnh cung Bc Sn, pha ng nam l vng i ni thp nh Lp, pha ng bc l tnh Qung Ty, Trung Quc. a hnh thuc mng trng Cao Lng, thp so vi cc lu vc ln cn. Sng Bng Giang c cao trung bnh lu vc t 900 - 1000 m, c nh cao nht l Pia Oc (1930m). Lu vc sng K Cng c trng bi nhng dy ni thp ko di vi cao t 300 - 500m, cao nht l nh Phia Po (1541m). Phn pha bc thp dn theo hng ty bc - ng nam, cn pha nam th thp dn theo hng ng nam - ty bc. Cu to a cht trong lu vc sng K Cng thuc i sng Hin, ct a tng Cao Lng, nn Hoa Nam, Trung Quc. nguyn sinh b bin cht mnh, cc ch yu gm vi, dip thch, rilit, phn sa, phin thch st, granit v cui kt. Khi ni vi Bnh Lng - Pc B khng cao, c nhiu hang ng karst hnh thnh t thi a cht Vn. Trong lu vc c cc loi t chnh l: - t mn ni cao v t mn vng trn ni cc nh ni cao trn 1000 m. - t feralit vng ni phn b cao 700 - 1000 m l sn phm phong ho t cc loi gc nh dip thch, sa thch ... - t feralit vng i, phn b cao di 500 m hnh thnh t dip thch, sa thch v ph sa c v cc loi trm tch khc. - t feralit trn ni vi. Thm thc vt mang tnh cht nhit i gm cc loi rng ch yu sau y: - T 700 m tr ln gm cc rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i. - T 700 m tr xung l rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i. - Ti cc i ni thp l rng kn hn hp, l rng, l kim nhit i. - Xen k l cc loi tre na, cy bi. T l che ph rng, theo ti liu ca Vin iu tra Quy hoch Rng nm 1983 l 17,6%, nm 1999 l khong 30%.

6.1.2. Khi qut v cc iu kin kh hu

Kh hu lu vc h thng K Cng - Bng Giang l kh v lnh hn so vi cc vng khc trn t nc ta. Bc x tng cng trung bnh nm khong 110 -130 kcal/cm2, ln nht vo thng VII, nh nht

137

vo thng XII hay thng I.

o

Nhit khng kh trung bnh nm khong 20 -22 oC, cao nht c th ti 40 oC, thp nht l 0 C mt s ni.

S gi nng trung bnh nm bin i trong khong 1400 - 1600 gi, nhiu nht l cc thng VII, VIII (160 - 190 gi), t nht l thng II (45 - 80 gi) Lng my tng trung bnh nm t 7,4 - 8 phn mi bu tri, nhiu nht l cc thng I - IV(7,7 - 9), t nht l cc thng VI - VII(6 - 7). m tng i trung bnh nm ca khng kh khong 82%, chnh lch m gia cc thng trong nm khng ln, cao nht vo ma ma, thp hn v ma kh. Tc gi khng ln, tc gi trung bnh nm khong 1,0 - 1,8 m/s, mnh nht l cc th x Cao Bng v Lng Sn, yu nht quan st thy ti Tht Kh, H Qung. Tc gi cc i c th ti 40 m/s. Lng ma trung bnh nm nm trong khong 1000 mm - 2000 mm, thuc loi thp so vi lng ma bnh qun c nc. Ma ma (V - IX) chim khong 80 % tng lng ma nm, hng nm c khong 120 - 140 ngy ma Lng bc hi trung bnh hng nm bin i t 700 mm - 800 mm, cao nht l cc th x Cao Bng v Lng Sn (1000mm).

6.1.3. Cc sng chnh v ti nguyn nc sng

H thng sng K Cng - Bng Giang vo sng T Giang (Trung Quc) tnh Qung Ty. Sng sui trn h thng tng i pht trin vi mt sng sui 0,5 - 1,5 km/km2, vi cc sng chnh nh sau: - Sng K Cng bt ngun t ni Ba X c cao 625 m, di 243 km, din tch lu vc l 6660 km2, c 77 sng sui thuc lu vc c chiu di t 10 km tr ln, ln nht l sng Ba Thin, Bc Giang v Bc Kh. - Sng Bng Giang bt ngun t N Vi c cao 600 m, di 108 km, din tch lu vc l 4560 km c 27 ph lu cc cp, cc nhnh ln l sng S Bao, Hin v Bc Vng.
2

- Sng Quay Sn bt ngun t Trung Quc, chy theo bin gii Vit - Trung, di 89 km, din tch lu vc l 1660 km2, c khong 50% din tch l ni vi. Sng N Lang bt ngun t dy Mu Sn, c cao 400 m, di 26 km, din tch lu vc 380 km2. Dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm phn b khng u trn h thng sng. Mun dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm bin ng trong phm vi t 15 l/s.km2 n 30 l/s.km2. Tng lng dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm ca h thng sng l 9 km3, trong : K Cng - 3,76 km3; Bng Giang 3,47 km3; Quay Sn 1,53 km3 v N Lang l 0,222 km3. Tng lng dng chy nm ca h thng chim khong 1% tng lng dng chy ca c nc. Phn b dng chy ca h thng sng khng u khng ch theo khng gian m cn c theo thi gian. Gi tr dng chy nm cc i v cc tiu c th chnh lch t 2 - 5 ln. Phn phi dng chy trong nm khng ng u, ma l bt u t thng V, VI v kt thc trong thng X, XI, chim t 65 75% tng lng dng chy nm. Ba thng lin tc c dng chy ln nht l cc thng VII - IX, chim 50 -65% tng lng dng chy nm, thng VIII l thng c dng chy ln nht, chim 20 - 30 % tng lng dng chy nm. Tng lng dng chy ma cn t 25 - 35% tng lng dng chy nm. Ba thng lin tc c

138

dng chy nh nht l cc thng I - III, chim 3 - 8% tng lng dng chy nm, thng c dng chy nh nht l thng II, chim 1 - 2,5% tng lng dng chy nm. bn ct l lng trung bnh nm phn b khng ng u. Cc sng thuc vng ni vi u c c nh. c trung bnh thng ma l khong 100 g/m3, ln nht khong 500 g/m3, v ma cn nc sng trong, c trung bnh ma cn khong 50 g/m3, nh nht c th 0,5 g/m3. Thnh phn ho hc ca nc sng c th hin qua cc c trng sau y: Tng khong ho trung bnh nm ca cc sng khong 100g/l; nc sng thuc lp hydrocacbonnat vi cc ion HCO3 ; Ca + + ; SO4 ; Cl ; SiO2 chim u th. pH khong 6,8 thuc loi kim yu, thuc loi mm. Sng tng i sch, ch nguy c nhim bn ti cc vng khai thc than Na Dng, khia thc vng lu vc sng Bc Giang.

Hnh 6.1. S li sng h thng K Cng - Bng Giang

6.2. H THNG SNG HNG - THI BNH

H thng sng Hng v sng Thi Bnh chim mt v tr quan trng trong i sng x hi nc nh, l ni gn lin vi nn vn minh sng Hng v nn vn ho la nc ca ngi Vit. H lu ca hai h thng sng ny gn lin vi ng bng chu th Bc B, c mng li sng ngi dy c, li c ni lin nhau nn cc vn thu vn, thu lc y din ra rt phc tp v c mi lin quan cht ch vi nhau. Vic khai thc s dng nc ni y gn cht vi qu trnh pht trin ca t nc. Tm lc cc nt chnh v h thng sng Hng v Thi Bnh nh sau.

139

6.2.1. Khi qut v mt m

H thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh gii hn bi to a l 100o00' - 107o10' kinh ng, 20o00 - 25o30' v bc, bc gip h thng sng Trng Giang, ty gip h thng sng M Kng, ng bc gip h thng sng T Giang, ng l Vnh Bc B, nam gip h thng sng M. a hnh h thng rt a dng, ni v ng bng thp dn theo hng ty bc - ng nam. a hnh i ni chim phn ln din tch vi cao trung bnh l 1090 m. Cc nh ni cao tiu biu l Pu Sam Sao (1897 m) trn bin gii Vit - Lo, Pia Oc (1930 m) trn cnh cung sng Gm v cnh cung Ngn Sn. Trn dy Hong Lin Sn c nh Panxipan (3143 m), Lang Cung (2913 m) v Phu Lung (2985 m). Vng i ni thp c cao di 100 m - 200 m l trung lu cc sng Cu, Thng v Lc Nam. Vng ng bng chu th sng Hng l do ph sa ca h thng sng Hng - Tah Bnh bi p c a hnh bng phng nghing ra bin. Dc theo cc sng c bao bc. a cht c cu to t cc loi nh granit, phin, sa dip thch, sa thch, ct kt, cui kt v vi trn cc vng ni cao. Cc khi ni dy Hong Lin Sn l cc c ngun gc macma nh phun tro axit, riolit v otofia. Phn h lu c trng bi phin, ct kt, phin kt tinh v cc loi bin cht khc. t c hnh thnh trn cc nn gc khc nhau. Cc loi t chnh l: - t granit pht trin trn cc loi khc nhau vi cc mu sc a dng: vng nht, vng , vng, nu v.v..; - t mn trn ni cao; - t vi; - t bi t; - t ph sa v t ct ven bin; - t ly tht. Thc pht trong h thng sng phong ph v a dng. Theo cao c th khi qut: - T 700 m tr ln gm rng kn hn hp, cy l rng, l kim m nhit i v rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i. - Di 700 m c rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i. Ngoi ra cn c rng trng v cc loi cy bi trn cc g i trung du. T l che ph rng trn lu vc h thng tng i thp, trong phn lnh th Vit Nam khong 17,4% ( Vin iu tra Quy hoch Rng, 1983). Nh phong tro trng rng nn n nm 1999 t l che ph vng i ni t ti 35%.

6.2.2. Khi qut v kh hu

Trn lnh th Vit Nam, h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh c tnh cht nhit i, gi ma, chu tc ng mnh ca a hnh nn rt phn d theo khng gian v thi gian. Bc x tng cng trung bnh nm khong 80 kcal/cm2vng ni cao, 120 kcal/cm2 vng ng bng. S gi nng trung bnh t 1400 gi cc vng ni cao n 2000 gi cc thung lng sng. Nhit khng kh trung bnh nm gim dn theo cao a hnh. ti cc vng ni cao nhit khng kh trung bnh nm c 15oC v 20 - 24 oC vng ng bng. Nhit khng kh bin i theo ma, vo ma h 15 -20 oC vng ni, 20 - 30 oC vng trung du v ng bng. Vo ma ng nhit

140

khng kh 10 - 15 oC vng ni v 15 - 20 oC vng ng bng v trung du. Nhit ti cao tuyt i c th ti 42,8 oC, thp nht tuyt i -5,7 oC. m tng i ca khng kh trung bnh hng nm bin i t 80 - 85%, chnh lch nhau khng ln theo lnh th, ln nht vo u ma ma v thp nht trong ma kh. Lng my trung bnh hng nm t 6,5 - 8,5 phn mi bu tri. Tc gi trung bnh hng nm bin ng t 1 m/s cc thung lng n 3-4 m/s vng ng bng v cc vng ni cao.Tc gi mnh nht quan st thy trong bo, t ti 51m/s ti Ph Lin. Lng bc hi cng bin i mnh theo khng gian, khong 500 mm cc vng ni cao n 900 - 100 mm cc vng trung du v ng bng. Lng ma trung bnh nm phn b khng ng u trn h thng sng do s chi phi ca a hnh t 1100 - 1200 mm vng khut gi ti 4000 mm sn n gi, lch nhau khong 5 ln gia ni ma nhiu nht v t nht. Lng ma ln nht quan st thy tm ma Bc Quang thuc dy Ty Cn Lnh (5000 mm), nhiu tm ma khc (3000 mm) quan st thy dy Hong Lin Sn, t ngn sng , bin gii Vit Trung. Thung lng Mc Chu v hu ngn sng c lng ma nh nht (1100 mm). Ma trn lu vc cng mang tnh cht ma r rt. Ma ma ko di t thng V n thng X chim 75 - 85% tng lng ma nm, trong ma kh lng ma t, chim 15 -20% tng lng ma nm.

6.2.3. Cc sng chnh v ti nguyn nc sng

Mng li sng ngi trong h thng Hng - Thi Bnh pht trin khng u vi mt li sng t 0,25 - 0,50 km/km2 cc cao nguyn vi n 1,5 km/km2 cc vng a hnh chia ct mnh. Trong h thng sng Hng c cc sng chnh l Thao, v L hp thnh. Sng Thao l dng chnh ca sng Hng bt ngun t h i L cao gn 2000 m trn nh Ngu Sn, Trung Quc chy theo hng ty bc - ng nam nhp vo nc ta ti tnh Lo Cai n Vit Tr nhp vi sng L v sng v mang tn gi l sng Hng H. Ngoi sng v sng L cn c cc sng nhnh ln nh: y, Luc, Tr L, o v Ninh C. Sng Hng ra vnh Bc B qua ca chnh l Ba Lt v cc ca Tr L, Lch Giang v sng Thi Bnh. Sng Hng c chiu di 1126 km, trong lnh th nc ta c 556 km. Sng bt ngun t tnh Vn Nam, Trung Quc chy vo nc ta qua a phn tnh Lai Chu v nhp vi sng Thao Vit Tr. Cc nhnh ln ca sng gm Nm P, Nm Na, Nm Mc, Nm Mu, Nm B v Nm Sp ...Sng di 1010 km, phn chy trn lnh th nc ta l 570 km. Sng L bt ngun t tnh Vn Nam, Trung Quc chy vo nc ta qua a phn tnh H Giang v nhp vi sng Thao Vit Tr. Cc nhnh ln ca sng L l sng Gm v sng Chy . Sng Gm cng bt ngun t Vn Nam v chy vo nc ta qua tnh Cao Bng. Sng Chy bt ngun t Ty Cn Lnh, tnh H Giang, ngoi ra cn c mt s sng nhnh khc nh sng Min, Con, Ph y. Sng Hng l con sng ln th nht Bc B, th hai ca c nc. Tng din tch lu vc ca sng Hng l 155.000 km2 trong 72.700 km2 nm trong lnh th nc ta c 615 ph lu cc cp. H thng sng Thi Bnh nm gn trong lnh th nc ta. Pha bc v ng bc gip lu vc sng Bng v sng K Cng, pha ty gip lu vc sng Hng, pha ng v ng nam gip cc sng vng Qung Ninh v pha nam l vnh Bc B. H thng sng Thi Bnh do ba sng: Cu, Thng v Lc Nam hp thnh. Sng Cu c coi l dng chnh ca sng Thi Bnh, bt ngun t vng ni Tam o (1326m) sn ng nam dy Pia-Bioc (1527m) v tip nhn sng Thng thng lu Ph Li khong 2

141

km. Tnh n Ph Li, sng Cu di 288 km, din tch lu vc 6030 km2, mt li sng trung bnh 0,55 km/km2. Mt s sng nhnh chnh ca sng Cu l: Sng Chu), sng Nghinh Tng, sng Cng, sng C L.

Hnh 6.2. S li sng h thng Hng - Thi Bnh

Sng Thng bt ngun t dy ni Na-Pa-Phc cao 600 m huyn Chi Lng tnh Lng Sn, tip nhn thm nhnh sng Lc Nam t pha b tri vo, ri tc chy v xui v nhp vo sng Cu pha thng lu Ph Li. Sng Thng di 157 km, din tch lu vc 6650 km2 (trong 3070 km2 thuc sng Lc Nam). Mt s sng nhnh chnh ca sng Thng nh: sng Ho, sng Trung, sng Si... Sng Lc Nam bt ngun t vng ni Kham, cao 700 m huyn nh Lp tnh Lng Sn vo sng Thng T Yn, cch Ph Li 10 km v pha thng lu. Sng Lc Nam di 175 km, din tch lu vc 3070 km2, c coi l nhnh sng cp 1 ca sng Thng. Mt s sng nhnh chnh ca sng Lc Nam nh: Sng Cm n, sng Mai Su, sng o Bnh. Tnh n Ph Li h thng sng Thi Bnh c din tch lu vc 12680 km2. T h lu Ph Li sng Thi Bnh chy vo sng Hng to thnh ng bng chu th Bc B vi mng li sng ngi, knh rch dy c v nc sng Hng chy sang sng Thi bnh qua phn lu sng ung v sng Luc. Dng chy nm trong h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh cng phn b khng u trong khng gian v bin i mnh m theo thi gian. M un dng chy nm trung bnh nhiu nm trong h thng sng (phn Vit Nam) bin i trong phm vi t di 15 l/s.km2 n hn 100 l/s.km2. Tng lng dng chy nm, trung bnh nhiu nm ca h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh khong

142

136 km3 chim 16% tng lng dng chy nm ca sng ngi nc ta, trong h thng sng Hng 126,3 km3 (93%), h thng sng Thi Bnh 9,7 km3 (7%); tng lng dng chy t lnh th Trung Quc v Lo chy vo l 45 km3 (33%), tng lng dng chy ni au l 91 km3 (67%). Mc bo m nc trung bnh nm trn 1 km2 din tch (phn Vit Nam) l 1590.103 m3/km2, thp hn mc bo m nc trung bnh ca c nc. Trong h thng sng Hng, dng chy nm ca sng Hng ti Sn Ty bin i ng pha vi dng chy nm ca sng , sng Thao nhng khng ng pha hay ch ng pha trong tng giai on i vi sng L. H s bin sai dng chy nm ca cc sng sui trong h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh bin i trong phm vi 0,12 - 0,50. Dng chy sng sui trong h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh phn phi khng u trong nm. Hng nm dng chy sng sui bin i theo ma, ma l v ma cn. Thi gian bt u v kt thc ca hai ma ny ty thuc vo s hot ng ca cc hnh th thi tit gy ma v iu kin mt m. Nhn chung, ma l hng nm trn phn ln cc sng sui trong h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh thng bt u t thng V, VI v kt thc vo thng IX, X. Lng dng chy ma l chim khong 70 - 85% tng lng dng chy ton nm. Ba thng lin tc c lng dng chy ln nht thng xut hin vo cc thng VII - IX trn phn ln cc sng sui. Lng dng chy ca ba thng ny chim khong 50 - 60% tng lng dng chy nm phn ln cc sng, c th tng ln 60 - 70% hay gim xung 45 - 50% mt s sng. Lng dng chy trung bnh thng ln nht thng xut hin vo cc thng VIII hay IX. Lng dng chy cua thng ny chim khong 15 - 20% tng lng dng chy nm. L h lu sng Thi Bnh do l thng ngun sng Thi Bnh kt hp vi l sng Hng. Ma cn hng nm thng ko di 5, 6 thng, t thng X, XI n thng V, VI nm sau. Lng dng chy trong ma ny ch chim 15 - 40% tng lng dng chy nm. Ba thng lin tc c dng chy nh nht thng xut hin vo cc thng I - III hay cc thng II - IV. Lng dng chy ca ba thng ny chim di 10% lng dng chy nm. Thng II hay thng III l thng c lng dng chy trung bnh nh nht dng chy nm Sng Hng l con sng c c ct bn l lng ln nht nc ta v cng thuc loi ln trn th gii. c ct bn l lng trung bnh nm trn cc sng va v nh bin i trong phm vi 100 700 g/m3. c ct bn l lng cng bin i theo ma. Ma l cng l thi k c nc sng ln v ma cn l thi k nc sng tng i trong. c ct bn l lng ma l t ti 1000 - 5000 g/m3 sng Thao, 500 - 2500 g/m3 sng , 150 - 500 g/m3 sng L v 100 - 1000 g/m3 cc sng va v nh. Khi trn cc sng sui c cc h cha, ct bn s b bi lng trong h. Do phn ln ct bn sng lng ng trong lng h cha Ho Bnh, nn lng bn ct h lu sng Hng gim ng k. V th tng lng ct bn l lng trung bnh nm ca sng Hng ti Sn Ty t 114 triu tn trong thi k 1958 - 1985 gim xung cn 73 triu tn trong thi k 1986 - 1997. Nc sng c phn ng kim yu, pH bin i trong phm vi 6,4 - 7,5. Hm lng xy ho tan cao, khong 80 - 96% bo ho. khong ho nc sng khong 100 - 240 mg/l.
Nc sng thuc lp hydroccbonnt canxi kiu I. Ion HCO3 chim u th (65 - 170 mg/l)

trong s cc ion, nh nht sng Lc Nam v ln nht sng Thng. Ion Ca++ chim u th (12 - 35 mg/l). Nc ph sa sng Hng c hm lng cht dinh dng kh cao. Nc bin theo thu triu xm nhp vo su trong sng ngi, knh rch, nht l trong ma cn,

143

lm cho nc sng ngi knh rch v nc trong ng vng ven bin b nhim mn. Nhn chung, nc sng sui trong h thng sng Hng - Thi Bnh cn sch, c th p ng cho cc nhu cu sn xut cng, nng nghip v sinh hot. Tnh trng nc sng Hng b nhim nng n nht l trong ma cn, ang xy ra khu vc thnh ph Vit Tr, thnh ph H Ni... Nc sng Cu khu vc thnh ph Thi Nguyn v cc on sng chy qua cc lng lm ngh th cng cng b nhim rt nghim trng.

6.3. H THNG SNG M, SNG C V CC SNG VNG BNH TR THIN 6.3.1. Cc iu kin mt m
H thng sng M, sng C v cc sng thuc Bnh Tr Thin thuc khu vc Bc Trung b pha bc gip vi h thng sng Hng v sng Thi Bnh, pha nam gip khu vc Trung Trung B, pha ty gip lu vc sng M Kng, pha ng gip Bin ng Vng Bc Trung B c ba dng a hnh chnh: min ni, trung du v ng bng. Cc ng bng nh v hp nm st ven bin, ng k nht l ng bng Thanh Ho (h lu sng M) v Ngh An (h lu sng C), cc di ct ven bin chy di theo hng bc - nam. Vng i ni chim phn ln din tch c hng dc chung l hng ty - ng v chnh l hng chy chnh ca cc sng trong vng. Nn a cht thuc a mng Vit - Lo vi cc hot ng a cht xy ra tng i mnh m, cc hot ng tn kin to lm cho a hnh b chia ct mnh to nn cc con sng ngn, dc chy ra bin theo hng ty - ng hay ty nam - ng bc. t trong vng pht trin trn nn m khc nhau. t i ni l sn phm phong ho cc nham thch. t ng bng cu to t cc ph sa sng bin gm cc loi ch yu sau: - t feralit mn ni c t cao 800 m tr ln, tng mn dy, c cy ci bao ph. - t feralit nu vng hay trn granit cc vng ni thp hay trung bnh, chua v giu mn. - t feralit nu vng pht trin trn phin thch v sa thch cc vng ni thp hay trung bnh, c nhiu kt vn, khng thun li cho sn xut nng nghip. - Trn vng g i ph bin cc t feralit vng pht trin trn phin thch, sa thch v phin sa thch b ra tri, ngho dinh dng. - t ph sa c ph bin trn cc vng g i ln sng - t pht trin trn bazan vng Ph Qu v Qung Tr. - t xm bc mu, t gly trn nn ph sa c v b xi mn - t phn, mn v than bn cc m ph ven bin. Thc vt c tnh cht giao lu gia hai min Nam Bc, cn c mt s rng nguyn sinh ti cc u ngun. Cc kiu rng chnh trong vng l: - Rng kn thng xanh ma m nhit i phn b ch yu cao di 700 m. - Rng thng xanh ma m nhit i phn b ch yu cao trn 700 m. Din tch che ph ngy cn b thu hp, theo s liu nm 1981 ca Vin iu tra Quy hoch Rng th t l che ph trong vng cn t 31 - 35% (nm 1943 l 75%).

6.3.2. Khi qut v kh hu

Kh hu vng c tnh cht chuyn tip v ng tr hai loi gi ma chnh l ng bc v ty nam.

144

S gi nng trung bnh nm bin i t 1490 n 1950 gi tng dn t ty sang ng v cao nht v ma h,cn ma ng v ma xun thp hn. Nhit khng kh trung bnh nm t 21,6 -25,8 oC, cao nht l cc thng ma h, thp nht l cc thng ma ng. Nhit ti cao tuyt i l 42,6 oC, ti thp l 4,5 oC ng bng, 0 oC min ni cao.

Hnh 6.3 S h thng sng khu vc Bc Trung B

Lng my kh phn d theo ma. Ma ng c lng my ln (8,5 -9 phn mi bu tri), ma h nh (6,5 - 8 phn mi bu tri) m tng i trung bnh nm bin ng t 82 - 87%, cao hn cc thng ng - xun, thp hn cc thng ma h. Tc gi bnh qun nm bin i t 1,3 m/s n 2,6 m/s. Tc gi ln nht t ti 40 m/s vng ng bng ven bin v 20 m/s vng khut gi. Vng ny c gi Lo gy nn hin tng "phn" c bit trn lnh th nc ta. Bc hi tim nng trung bnh nm vo khong 1000 - 1400 mm, ln nht vo thng VII, thp nht vo thng I hoc thng II.

145

Lng ma nm bin i trong khong 1400 n 3000 mm. Trung tm ma ln nht l V Quang v bc o Hi Vn, trung tm kh hn t ma xut hin Mng Xn. Lng ma ma ma chim 60 - 80% lng ma nm. Trong vng c trng ma tiu mn khong cui thng V, u thng VI.

6.3.3. Cc sng chnh v ti nguyn nc sng

Trong vng c hai h thng sng ln l h thng sng M v h thng sng C v 19 con sng c lp khc. Li sng pht trin khng u, c mt t 0,45 km/km2 n 1,3 km/km2, c tt c 424 con sng c chiu di t 10 km tr ln l ph lu cc cp. Sau y gii thiu hai thiu hai h thng sng v mt s sng ln. H thng sng M bt ngun t pha nam dy Hui Long tnh Lai Chu ri ra bin ti 3 ca : Sung, Lch Trng v Hi. Sng M c din tch lu vc l 20800 km2, di 512 km, cao bnh qun lu vc l 762m, hai phn ba din tch lu vc trong lnh th Vit Nam, phn cn li l thuc Lo. Cc nhnh chnh ca sng M gm c sng Chu, Nm Khoai, Nm Lung, L, Bi v Cu Chy trong sng Chu l con sng ln nht, di 160 km. H thng sng C c dng chnh l sng Lam v cc nhnh chnh l sng Hiu v sng Ngn Su (La) to thnh. Sng C bt ngun t Mng Lp, Lo cao 2000 m chy theo hng ty bc ng nam v ra bin ti ca Hi. Sng Hiu l nhnh ln nht t ngn bt ngun t dy Pu Hot bin gii Vit Lo gp sng C ti Anh Sn, Ngh An. Sng La l nhnh hu ngn, thuc t H Tnh do cc sng Ngn Ph v Ngn Su to thnh bt ngun t Ni Giai sn ng Bc Trng Sn vo sng C ti Ch Trng. Mt s con sng khc thuc h thng ny H Tnh nh Ro Ci, Ca Nhng, Ca Khu u nh. Sng Gianh l con sng ln nht tnh Qung Bnh bt ngun t vng ni Ging Mn cao 2017 m bin gii Vit Lo v ra bin ti ca Gianh. Sng Gianh c ds 158 km vi din tch lu vc l 4680 km2. Ni y c ng Phong Nha ni ting. Sng Gianh c cc nhnh chnh l : sng Ro Tr, sng Trc Sng Kin Giang l con sng ln th hai tnh Qung Bnh bt ngun t cao 953 m t pha ty tnh Qung Bnh ra ca Nht L (cn gi l sng Nht L). Sng di 96 km, din tch lu vc 2650 km2 c nhiu din tch ni vi. Cc nhnh chnh l sng i Giang, Hi Trung, Cm Ly v Ro L. Sng Bn Hi thuc tnh Qung Tr bt ngun t cao 500 m vng ni pha ty ra bin ca Tng. Sng di 64,5 km, din tch lu vc 809 km2, nhnh ln nht l sng Bn Xe. Sng Qung Tr (cn gi l sng Thch Hn) l con sng ln nht tnh Qung Tr bt ngun t cao 700 m t bin gii Vit Lo v ra ca Vit. Sng di 156 km, din tch lu vc l 2660 km2 c tt c 28 ph lu cc cp. Cc nhnh sng ln l Khe Ty, Ro Qun, Khung Giang, Vnh Phc v Cam L. Sng Hng thuc tnh Tha Thin - Hu c din tch lu vc l 2690 km2 do 3 con sng ln to thnh: Hu Trch, T Trch v B trong T Trch c coi l dng chnh ca sng Hng. Sng Hng bt ngun t Ni Mang thuc dy Bch M, cao 1708 m chy qua thnh ph Hu v ra ca Thun An. Sng Hu Trch bt ngun t ng Trng Sn t cao 1200 m v nhp vi sng Hng t ng ba Tun. Sng B l nhnh ln nht ca sng Hng bt ngun t pha ty tnh Tha Thin Hu vo sng Hng ti ng ba Snh.

146

Bc Trung B l ni c nhiu m ph v cng trnh thu li, tham gia vo vic khai thc ti nguyn nc trong vng. Tiu biu l cc h sng Mc, Yn M (Thanh Ho), Vc Mu (Ngh An), sng Rc, K G (H Tnh), Vc Trn, Cm Ly (Qung Bnh), Kinh Mn, Trc Kinh (Qung Tr), Tin Lang, ph Tam Giang, m Cu Hai (Tha Thin - Hu). Dng chy nm phn b khng u trong vng. M un dng chy nm trung bnh nhiu nm bin i trong phm vi t di 15 l/s.km2 n hn 80 l/s.km2, trong 15 - 50 l/s.km2 h thng sng M, di 20 l/s.km2 n trn 80 l/s.km2 h thng sng C v 30 l/s.km2 n trn 80 l/s.km2 khu vc t Qung Bnh n Tha Thin Hu. Tng lng dng chy nm trung bnh nhiu nm ca ton vng khong 84,5 km3, trong t Lo chy vo khong 10 km3 (5,55 km3 c hnh thnh trong lnh th nc ta; tng ng vi lu lng nc trung bnh nm 2680 m3/s. Mc bo m nc trung bnh nm khong 1650.103 m3/km2.nm. Vng Bc Trung B, ma l trn cc sng sui xut hin khng ng thi, c xu hng xut hin mun v ngn dn t bc vo nam. - Cc thng VI - X sng M v thng lu sng C (t Ca Ro tr ln). - Cc thng VI - XI trung v thng lu sng Chu, thng lu sng Hiu, t ngn trung lu sng Hiu. - Cc thng VII, VIII - XI trn cc sng ven bin (t sng Yn n sng Ca L), trung lu sng C (t Ca Ro n Thanh Chng) v cc sng sui nh pha hu ngn trung lu sng Chu. - Cc thng IX, X - XII trn cc sng t nam H Tnh n Tha Thin Hu. Lng dng chy ma l chim khong 65 - 80% tng lng dng chy nm i vi nhng sng c 4, 5 thng ma l, 50 - 60% i vi nhng sng c 3 thng ma l. Ba thng lin tc c lng dng chy ln nht thng xy ra vo cc thng VII - IX sng M, thng v trung lu sng C, Chu, cc thng IX - XI trn cc sng t hu ngn sng C n Qung Tr v thng X - XII trn cc sng Tha Thin Hu. Lng dng chy ca ba thng ny chim khong 50 -60% tng lng dng chy nm. Thng c lng dng chy trung bnh thng ln nht thng xut hin vo thng VIII sng M, trung v thng lu sng C, thng IX cc sng t sng Chu v thng lu sng Hiu, thng X cc sng t h lu sng Hiu n sng Qung Tr v thng XI trn cc sng Tha Thin Hu. Lng dng chy ca thng ny chim khong 20 - 30% tng lng dng chy nm. M un lu lng ln nht ca sng sui vng Bc Trung B thuc loi ln nc ta. S d m un lu lng l ln nht vng ny tng i ln l do sng sui dc v ngn, cng ma ln. L qut cng xut hin nhiu ni. Ma cn vng ny xut hin khng ng thi trn cc sng. c bit, vng ny trong cc thng V, VI thng c l tiu mn, nhng sau cc trn l tiu mn, nc sng li gim. V th cho nn, dng chy chy trong gia on gia ma cn thng tng i ln v khng n nh. Ba thng lin tc c dng chy nh nht thng xut hin vo cc thng II - IV trn phn ln cc sng, cc thng III - V hay VI - VIII trn mt s sng khc. Lng dng chy ca ba thng ny chim khong 4 - 10% tng lng dng chy nm. c ct bn l lng trung bnh nm ( n ) bin i trong phm vi 100 - 500 g/m3. Cng nh cc ni khc nc ta, c nc sng trong vng Bc Trung B cng bin i theo ma: c nc sng ln vo ma l v nh vo ma cn. khong ha ca nc sng trong vng ny khng cao, bin i trong phm vi 100 - 200

147

mg/l. khong ho nc sng cng bin i theo ma. Nc sng c phn ng trung tnh hoc kim yu pH = 6 - 7, c ni tng ln ti 8. kim nc sng xp x hoc ln hn cng. Nc sng thuc loi mm v rt mm. Ion HCO3 chim u th so vi tng lng cc ion khc. Ion Ca + + chim u th trong s cc cation. Nh vy, nc sng vng Bc Trung B thuc lp biccbonnt. Nhn chung, nc sng t nhin cn tng i sch, p ng cc yu cu cho cp nc sinh hot v sn xut cng nng nghip. Tuy nhin, nc sng ngi, ao h, knh rch vng h lu gn ca sng thng b nhim mn, trong ma cn, nc thng ngun v t nn xm nhp mn su vo trong sng ngi, knh rch v ni ng, nh hng n sn xut, i sng. Ranh gii mn xm nhp su nht vo trong sng c th ln ti trn 35 km h lu sng M, sng C v trn 10 km cc sng khc.

6.4. CC LU VC NAM TRUNG B 6.4.1. Khi qut iu kin mt m

Vng Nam Trung B nm trong phm vi to a l 107000' - 109030', 10031' - 16005' v bc, pha bc gip tnh Tha Thin Hu, pha ty gip vi Lo v cc tnh Kom Tum, Gia Lai, c Lc, Lm ng, pha ty nam gip vi tnh ng Nai, pha ng gip vi B Ra - Vng Tu v pha nam gip vi bin. Cc dy ni Bnh nh c cu to bng phin, mica v g-nai, sn thoi nh trn cao khng qu 1500 m. T thung lng sng Ba n min ng Nam B l phn cui ca Trng Sn Nam, c cc nh ni cao trn 2000 m nh: Ch-Yang Sn (2405 m), Vng Phu (2022 m)..., c cu to t grant. Ni tip gia min ni vi ng bng l vng trung du c cao di 500 - 800 m. ra pha ng ca ng bng l cc di cn ct ven bin, a hnh khng tht bng phng, cao t 5 - 10 m n 100 m. a hnh vng Nam Trung B rt a dng, gm ni, trung du, ng bng v di cn ct ven bin. i ni chim phn ln din tch trong vng. Hng dc chung ca a hnh l ty bc - ng nam hay ty nam - ng bc. Vng Nam Trung B thuc min a cht thu vn Nam Trung B. Nc ngm tn ti trong t , l hng v khe nt. Nc trong l hng c chia ra cc tng cha nc di y: - Tng cha nc cc thnh to ngun gc Holoxen. - Tng cha nc cc thnh to sng l t. - Tng cha nc cc thnh to sng, sng bin Pleixtoxen. Cc loi t chnh trong vung Nam Trung B nh sau: - t mn trn ni cao; - t vng; - t xm bc mu; - t ph sa ven sng sui v ng bng; - t mn v t phn phn b cc di ng bng tip gip vi bin. Rng trong vng l loi rng thng xanh ma m nhit i. Tnh n cui nm 1999, t l rng che ph cc tnh ch cn khong 20 - 45%, trung bnh ton vng l 37,6%.

6.4.2. Khi qut v kh hu

c im c bn ca kh hu trong vng Nam Trung B nh sau: - Nn bc x cao vi tng bc x trn 150 kcal/cm2, nhit khng kh trung bnh nm di

148

200C vng ni cao n trn 270C khu vc ven bin t Qui Nhn n Bnh Thun. Nhit ti thp tuyt i 5 - 100C, nhit ti cao tuyt i trn 400C. - S gi nng trung bnh nm t 1800 gi vng ni cao ti trn 2800 gi ven bin. - m tng i trung bnh nm ca khng kh tng i thp cc nam Trung B (di 75%), tng i cao khu vc pha bc (80%). m khng kh cao trong ma ma (85 - 90%) v thp trong ma kh (70 - 75 %).

Hnh 6.4. S h thng sng Nam Trung B

149

- Lng my trung bnh nm bin i trong phm vi 5,5 - 8,5 phn mi bu tri. Cao khu vc i ni, thp ven bin, cao trong ma ma v thp trong ma kh. - Tc gi trung bnh nm bin i mnh t di 1 m/s ni khut gi n trn 3 m/s vng ven bin. - Bc thot hi tim nng trung bnh nm bin i trong phm vi 1000 - 1800 mm, tng dn t bc vo nam, t min ni xung ng bng. - Lng ma phn b rt khng ng u trong vng. Khu vc ven bin cc Nam Trung B c lng ma nm t nht (600 - 800 mm) trong vng v nc ta. Khu vc pha ty Qung Nam - Qung Ngi, c lng ma nm t 3000 - 5000 mm. Ma ma xut hin khng ng thi trong vng, cc thng V, VI - X, XI cc Nam Trung B, thng IX - XII cc ni khc. Lng ma ma ma chim 55 - 75% tng lng ma nm. Ma kh ko di 7 - 9 thng, nhng lng ma ma ny ch chim 25 45% lng ma nm. Do nng nng v t ma, lng bc hi ln nn hn hn thng xy ra trong cc thng VII - VIII.

6.4.3. Cc sng chnh v ti nguyn nc khu vc

Trong vng Nam Trung B c 2 h thng sng (sng Thu Bn v sng Ba) v 40 sng c lp. Tt c cc sng u bt ngun t vng ni cao dy Trng Sn Nam, chy trc tip ra bin. Li sng pht trin khng u, t 0,10 - 0,15 km/km2 ni c a hnh chia ct mnh v ma nhiu. Tnh nhng sng sui c chiu di t 10 km tr ln th trong vng Nam Trung B c khong 427 sng sui. H thng sng Thu Bn gm dng chnh v sng Ci hp thnh. Bt ngun t sn pha dng dy Ngc Linh tnh Kon Tum v ra bin ti ca i. Sng Ci l sng nhnh ln nht ca sng Thu Bn vi din tch lu vc 10.350 km2, h thng sng Thu Bn bao trm phn ln a phn tnh Qung Nam v thnh ph Nng. Sng Tr Khc l sng ln nht trong tnh Qung Ngi. Sng bt ngun t vng ni cao thuc dy Trng Sn Nam tnh Kon Tum ri ra bin C Lu. Sng Tr Khc di 135 km, din tch lu vc 3240 km2. Sng ak-se-l l sng nhnh ln nht ca sng Tr Khc. Sng ny di 63 km, din tch lu vc 1760 km2. Sng Kn bt ngun t vng ni cao ty bc tnh Bnh nh, chy vo vnh Quy Nhn. Sng Kn c mt s sng nhnh tng i ln nh: Sui Xem, ng Sn, sng Trng... Sng Kn di 171 km, din tch lu vc 2980 km2. Sng K L nm phn pha bc tnh Ph Yn. Sng bt ngun t vng ni cao trn 1000 m tnh Gia Lai vo vnh Xun i. Sng K L di 105 km, din tch lu vc 1920 km2. Sng K L c mt s sng nhnh tng i ln nh: sng Ca Tn, sng Tr Bun, sng C v sng Cy. H thng sng Ba do dng chnh v cc nhanh sng: Ia-Yun, Krng-H-Nng, Hinh... hp thnh. Dng chnh sng Ba bt ngun t ni Ngc R c nh cao 1549 m, ng bc tnh Gia Lai, ra bin ti ca Tuy Ho. Sng di 388 km, din tch lu vc 13.900 km2. Cc sng nhnh ln l I - A Dung, Krng H Nng, Hinh. Dng chy nm trong vng phn b khng u. M un dng chy nm khu vc ven b bin Ninh Thun - Bnh Thun ch vo khong 5 -10l/s.km2, nh nht nc ta, trong khi ti thng ngun cc sng Thu Bn, Tr Khc gi tr ny l 80 l/s.km2, ln nht c nc. Tng lng dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm khong 64,7 km3. chim 7,6% tng lng dng chy sng ngi ca c nc, v 19% tng lng dng chy ni a. Ma l vng ny ngn v mun nht nc ta. Ma l bt u t thng IX, X n thng XII. Lng dng chy ma l chim 60 - 75% dng chy c nm. Thng XI l thng c dng chy ln nht.

150

Ma cn khong 8 - 9 thng chim 15 - 40 % tng lng dng chy nm, thng V, VI c th xut hin l tiu mn, tuy quy m thng khng ln nhng c nm li quan st thy l ln nht nm trong v ny. Cht lng nc sng th hin qua c bn ct v thnh phn ho hc ca nc sng. c bn ct l lng trung bnh nm trn cc sng trong vng tng i nh v dao ng trong phm vi 100 - 250 g/m3. Trong cc thng ma l gi tr ny l 100 - 400 g/m3, ma cn di 50 g/m3. khong ho trung bnh nm ca nc sng thng nh hn 100 mg/l, phn ln di 50 mg/l, nc c phn ng kim yu, pH = 7 - 7,5. Vng ven bin nc sng b nhim mn trong ma cn lm cho tnh trng khan him nc ngt cng tr nn gay gt.

6.5. H THNG SNG NG NAI 6.5.1. Khi qut v cc iu kin mt m

H thng sng ng Nai nm trong phm vi a l: 105030' - 108040' kinh ng, 10020' 12 20' v bc, pha bc gip vi lu vc sng Xr-pc, pha ty gip vi cc lu vc sng nhnh ca sng M Kng Camphuchia, pha ty nam v nam gip vi ng bng sng Cu Long, pha ng bc gip vi cc lu vc sng Khng Ho v pha ng v ng nam gip vi lu vc cc sng hai tnh Ninh Thun v Bnh Thun.
0

Din tch lu vc sng ng Nai nm trong lnh th nc ta 37400 km2, chim 84% din tch ton h thng (44100 km2). Vng thng lu, ni bt u ca hai nhnh a Dung v a Nhim l vng ni cao - vng sn nguyn Lt, vi nhng nh cao trn 1300 m nh cc nh: Bi p (2287 m), Lang Biang (2153 m), Ch-Cang-Ca (2163 m). a hnh phn pha ng v pha ty ca lu vc l dng a hnh ni thp, cao 500 - 1000 m; ra pha nam cao gim dn v tip gip vi ng bng sng Cu Long, co cao di 500 m. H thng sng ng Nai nm trong n v cu trc Lt, nm v pha nam a khi Kon Tum. gc ph bin l bt kt st, phin Silic, cc trm tch cha vi, nm thoi phn ra v dc phn trung tm. Xuyn qua cc trm tch ny l cc xm nhp grant, granodiorit vf diorit. C cc trm tch ngun gc ni la, bao gm cc kt, bt kt phin st mu nu . Trm tch m ly xut hin trong thung lng mt s on sng vng Di Linh. Cc loi phn tro badan phn b rng khp trn lu vc. * t Feralt trn cc loi m khc nhau: - Feralt trn ba dan; - Feralt nu trn grant - Feralt vng trn grant; - Feralt trn grant; * t Sialt Feralt trn nn ph sa c. * t ph sa mi. * t chua phn. * t lng ng, than bn, bc mu. Thc vt trn cao nguyn Lang Biang ch yu l rng n i. T l rng che ph thng

151

ngun sng B, sng a Nhim cn tng i cao; t l rng sng a Dung, La Ng vo loi trung bnh v t l rng thp nht lu vc sng Si Gn v Vm C. Tng din tch rng trong lu vc 1198.103 ha, chim 35,8% tng din tch t nhin.

Hnh 6.5. S h thng sng ng Nai

6.5.2. Khi qut v kh hu

Bc x tng cng trung bnh nm dao ng trong phm vi trn di 160 kcal/cm2. Cn bng bc x thng tng i cao trong cc thng ma xun h v tng i nh trong cc thng ma thu ng. Lng my trung bnh nm bin i trong phm vi 5 - 9 phn mi, phn ln cc ni khong 6,5 - 7,5 phn mi. S gi nng trung bnh nm kh ln, khong 2100 - 2800 gi, c xu th gim khi cao a hnh tng ln. Nhit khng kh trung bnh nm bin i trong phm vi t khong di 200C vng ni cao n khong 270C ng bng ven bin, gim dn theo s tng ca a hnh. m tng i trung bnh nm ca khng kh tng i cao vng ni cao (trn 80%), tng i thp vng trung du v ng bng (t di 80%). m cng bin i theo ma: cao trong ma h thu (80 - 90%), thp trong ma ng xun (68 - 80%). Tc gi trung bnh nm bin i trong phm vi t 1 m/s n 3 m/s. Tc gi mnh nht quan trc c t ti 20 - 25 m/s nhiu ni. Lng bc hi trung bnh nm bin i trong phm vi tng i ln, t khong 650 - 700 mm vng ng bng ven bin. Lng ma nm trung bnh nm khong 140 - 1700 mm. Ma ma thng t thng V n thng X, ma t ma t thng XI n thng IV nm sau. Lng ma ma ma chim ti 80 - 90% lng ma nm.

6.5.3. Cc sng chnh v ti nguyn nc sng

H thng sng ng Nai do dng chnh ng Nai v cc nhnh sng chnh nh cc sng: La

152

Ng, B, Si Gn v Vm C hp thnh. Din tch lu vc 44100 km2 nm trong lnh th Campuchia. Dng chnh sng ng Nai bt ngun t dy ni Lm Vin, Bi p trn cao nguyn Lang Biang. Ton b h thng sng ng Nai c 266 sng sui vi chiu di t 10 km tr ln, trong c 60 sng cp 1; 129 sng cp 2; 63 sng cp 3 v 13 sng cp 4. Mt li sng t 0,12 km/km2 phn t ngn h lu sng La Ng n 1,70 km/km2 h lu sng B. Mt s sng tng i ln ca sng ng Nai nh cc sng: a Dung, ak Dng, La Ng, B, Si Gn v Vm C... Sng a Dung bt ngun t cao 1800 m cao nguyn Lm Vin, c din tch lu vc 1250 km , di 91 km.
2

Sng ak Dng nm pha hu ngn dng chnh sng ng Nai, c din tch lu vc 1190 km , sng di 79 km, dc lu vc 10,90/00.
2

Sng La Ng l sng nhnh ln nht ca sng ng Nai, c din tch lu vc 4170 km2, sng di 272 km, dc lu vc 5,60/00. Sng B bt ngun phi ng nam cao nguyn Xna-R, di 344 km, din tch lu vc 7170 km2. Sng Si Gn bt ngun t vng bin gii Vit Nam - Campuchia, din tch lu vc 5560 km2, trong 550 km2 thuc thng ngun, dng sng di 256 km. Sng Vm C bt ngun t lnh th Campuchia, c din tch lu vc 12800 km2, chim 29,8% din tch lu vc ton h thng, trong 6820 km2 (46,7%) nm trong lnh th Campuchia. Trong h thng sng ng Nai xy dng nhiu h cha. ng k nht c cc h cha Tr An, h Thc M, h cha Du Ting, h cha a Nhim, h cha hm Thun - a Mi. Dng chy nm phn b khng u trong h thng sng. M un dng chy nm khong 10 15 l/s.km2 sng Vm C, h lu sng Si Gn, sng B v dng chnh sng ng Nai, tng ln trn 50 l/s.km2 vng trung lu sng ng Nai. Tng lng dng chy nm trung bnh nhiu nm ca h thng sng khong 36,3 km3 chim 4,3% tng lng dng chy nm ca cc sng trong c nc. Ma l thng bt u t thng VII, mun hn ma ma khong 2 thng, kt thc vo thng XI. Lng dng chy ma l chim khong 65 - 85% tng lng dng chy nm. Ba thng lin tc c lng dng chy ln nht thng xut hin vo cc thng VIII - X. Lng dng chy ca ba thng ny chim 45 - 65% tng lng dng chy nm. Thng IX hay thng X l thng c lng dng chy trung bnh thng ln nht. Lng dng chy ca thng ny chim khong 15 - 25% tng lng dng chy nm. Ma cn ko di ti 7, 8 thng, nhng lng dng chy trong ma ny ch chim khong 15 35% tng lng dng chy nm. Cc thng II - IV l ba thng lin tc c lng dng chy nh nht. Lng dng chy ca ba thng ny chim khong 3 - 5% tng lng dng chy nm. Thng III l thng c lng dng chy trung bnh thng nh nht. Lng dng chy ca thng ny ch chim 1 - 2% tng lng dng chy nm. c ct bn l lng trung bnh nm vo khong di 50 mg/l, thuc loi nh nc ta. Nc sng c khong ho thp, di 50 mg/l, thuc lp bicacbonat nhm Natri kiu 1. Ion HCO3 chim 70 - 75% tng lng cc anion, ring i vi sng B th khong trn 50%. Hm lng cc ion Ca + + , Mg + + u nh, chim di 30% ng lng cc cation. Nc sng thng c phn ng axt yu vi pH = 6 - 6,8. cng nc sng di 0,2 mg-e/l.. h lu cc sng, mn theo

153

thu triu xm nhp su vo trong sng ngi, knh rch. Vng ng Nam B l khu vc kinh t, pht trin kinh t rt mnh nc ta. Nc sng b nhim nng n bi nc thi t cc th, khu dn c v t cc vng sn xut nng nghip s dng phn ho hc, thuc tr su thi trc tip vo cc sng.

6.6 H THNG SNG M KNG

Sng M Kng l con sng ln nht nc ta v l mt trong nhng sng ln trn th gii; ng th mi v lng dng chy nm.

Hnh 6.6. S li sng lu vc sng SSan v Xr - pc

154

Vi din tch lu vc 795000 km2, sng M Kng bt ngun t cao nguyn Ty Tng chy theo hng chung ty bc - ng nam trn mt hnh trnh di 4200 km qua cc vng a hnh phc tp ca 6 nc: Trung Quc, Mianma, Lo, Thi Lan, Campuchia, Vit Nam ri ra Bin ng. phn thng lu, sng M Kng di 1800 km chy qua lnh th Trung Quc v Mi-an-ma. H lu sng M Kng, dng sng di 2400 km chy qua lnh th ca 4 nc: Lo, Thi Lan, Campuchia, Vit Nam, ia hnh a dng gm: ni, trung du v ng bng. lnh th nc ta, sng M Kng (nhnh pha ng) c gi l sng Tin v sng Bassac c gi l sng Hu. Phn ng bng chu th sng M Kng nm trong lnh th nc ta gi l ng bng sng Cu Long. Mt s nhnh ca sng M Kng cng bt ngun t lnh th nc ta. l cc sng Nm Rn, thng ngun sng S-Bang-Hing, thng ngun sng Se Cng, cc sng Se San, Xr-pc. Tng din tch sng M Kng nm trong lnh th nc ta khong 68820 km2

6.6.1 Khi qut cc iu kin mt m

Thng lu sng S San l vng ni cao ca khi ni Ngc Linh ko di gn 200 km. Cc dy ni pha bc v pha ng l ng phn nc gia sng S San vi cc sng sn pha ng Trng Sn nh cc sng: Thu Bn, Tr Khc, V, H Giao v sng Ba. Cc dy ni pha nam v dng nam chy theo hng ng bc - ty nam vi cc nh cao trn 1000 m l ng phn nc gia S San vi cc sng Ba, Xr-pc. trung tm lu vc c vng trng Kon tum, a hnh kiu bi t vi cao 500 - 550 m. a hnh trong lu vc cc sng S San va Xr-pc gm c a hnh ni, i v cao nguyn. V a cht vng ni Ngc Linh c hnh thnh trn nn a cht gm 2 nhm chnh: mc ma axt v bin cht nh loi grant, granoioxt, phin thch anh, phin mi ca... Ty Nguyn ni chung v 2 lu vc sng S San v Xr-pc ni ring c cc loi t chnh di y: - t ph sa sng sui; - t xm bc mu; - t en; - t vng (t Feralt); - t mn vng trn ni cao 1000 - 2000 m; - t mn trn ni cao trn 2000 m; - t xi mn tr si T l rng trong lu vc khong 30 - 40% vo u thp k 80. n cui nm 1999, t l rng che ph trung bnh ca 3 tnh Kon Tum, Gia Lai, c Lc l 47%. Thm ph thc vt trong lu vc gm c rng rm ch yu thng xanh v rng rm ch yu rng l, rng tha v trng cy bi, trng c. ng bng sng Cu Long l phn h lu ng bng chu th sng M Kng, c gii hn bi vnh Thi Lan p pha ty nam, Bin ng pha ng nam, sng Vm C Ty pha ng bc v lnh th Campuchia pha bc. ng bng sng Cu Long l mt min trng c lp y ch yu bng cc trm tch hn hp sng - bin, c gi l min trng Kainzoi M Kng. ng bng sng M Kng c hnh thnh qua mt qu trnh a cht lu di, ch yu do ph sa sng M Kng bi p. ng bng sng Cu Long c 5 nhm t chnh di y: * Nhm t phn: Nhm t ny chim khong 1,6 triu ha.

155

* Nhm t mn: Nhm t ny c din tch khong 744.000 ha. * Nhm t ph sa: Nhm t ph sa chim din tch khong 1.185.000 ha. * Nhm t xm: C din tch khong 134.000 ha. * Cc nhm t ct c "ging" ct ven sng, bin Ngoi ra, trong ng bng sng Cu Long cn c mt s loi t khc nhau nh: than bn, t vng. Mt s loi rng ch yu ng bng sng Cu Long nh sau: - Rng ngp mn: Loi rng ny phn b ch yu bn o C Mau vi hai loi cy chnh l c v mn. - Rng ngp chua phn: Cy ch yu trong loi rng ny l trm, phn b C Mau, Kin Giang. Vo cui thp k 70, din tch rng trm l 140.000 ha. Ngoi ra, ng bng sng Cu Long c nhiu loi cy n tri, cy lm thuc, ly g v cc cy trng nng nghip...

Hnh 6.7. S li sng vng ng bng sng Cu Long

6.6.2. Cc iu kin kh hu
Kh hu trong lu vc thuc loi kh hu nhit i gi ma. S gi nng trung bnh nm (Sn) bin i trong phm vi 2200 - 2500 gi. Nhit khng kh trung bnh nm nh hn 180C vng ni cao trn 1500 m, ln hn 240C vng thung lng. Nhit khng kh cao nht tuyt i ln ti 36 - 400C, nhit khng kh thp nht tuyt i c th h xung 3 - 90C

156

Lng my trung bnh nm tng i thp: 4 - 6,5 phn mi bu tri. m tng i trung bnh nm phn ln cc ni trong vng bin i trong phm vi 75 85%. Tc gi trung bnh nm khong 1 - 3,5 m/s. Tc gi ln nht c th ti 30 - 35 m/s. Lng bc hi trung bnh nm bin i trong phm vi t di 1000 mm vung ni cao n hn 1600 mm vng bnh nguyn, th hin xu th gim khi cao a hnh tng ln. Lng ma nm trung bnh nm bin i trong phm vi 1400 - 3000 mm. Lng ma bin i mnh m theo ma. Ma ma thng ko di t thng V n thng X phn ln cc ni. Lng ma ma ma chim ti 80 - 90% lng ma ton nm. Lng ma ma kh ch chim ti 10 - 20% lng ma nm. S ngy ma trong nm khong 130 - 160 ngy. Trong ma kh, s ngy ma hng thng thng di 5 ngy. Do vy, hn hn thng xy ra trong ma kh. Vng ng bng sng Cu Long c kh hu nhit i m, gi ma cn xch o. Bc x tng cng trung bnh nm khong 150 - 160 kcal/cm2. Nhit khng kh trung bnh nm khong 26 - 290C. S gi nng trung bnh nm khong 2200 - 2800 gi. m khng kh trung bnh nm khong 70 80%. m ti thp c th xung ti 30 - 35%. Lng my trung bnh nm khong 7 phn mi bu tri. Tc gi trung bnh nm vo khong 2 m/s. Tc gi mnh nht khng qu 25 - 30m/s.

6.6.3. Ti nguyn nc sng v cc sng chnh

Sng Xr-pc l nhnh sng cp 1 ca sng M Kng. Sng ny bt ngun t vng Ty Nguyn nc ta ri vo sng M Kng pha b t. Sng Xr-pc c cc nhnh sng chnh nh S San, Iarng, Ia-Hleo, Krng-Kr. Sng S San l sng nhnh ln nht ca sng Xr-pc. Sng Xr-pc c hai nhnh sng Krng Ana v sng Krng Kn hp thnh. C ba nhnh sng tng i ln l : Krng Bc, Krng Pch v Krng Bng. Mt li sng trong khu vc sng Xr-pc t 0,2 km/km2 n hn 1 km/km2. Tng din tch lu vc ca dng chnh sng Xr-pc l 12740 km2 (phn Vit Nam). Trong lu vc sng S San, Xr-pc xy dng nhiu h cha. H cha Yaly trn sng S San l h cha ln nht Ty Nguyn hin nay. M un dng chy nm trung bnh nhiu nm bin i trong phm vi t di 15 l/s.km2 n hn 60 l/s.km2. Ma l hng nm xut hin khng ng thi trn cc sng sui; t thng VII, VIII n thng XI phn ln cc sng. Lng dng chy trong ma l chim ti 70 - 80% lng dng chy nm. thng IX hay thng X l thng c lng dng chy trung bnh thng ln nht. Lng dng chy ca thng ny chim khong 20% lng dng chy nm. c nc sng Ty Nguyn khng ln. c ct bn l lng trung bnh nm ch khong 40 - 100 g/m3, tng i nh sng Xr-pc. Trong ma l c ct bn l lng trung bnh thng khong 100 - 250 g/m3. Trong ma cn c nc sng kh nh, thng di 50 g/m3. khong ho nc sng khong 30 - 60 mg/l, nc sng c phn ng kim yu vi pH = 7. Nhn chung, nc sng cn tng i sch, p ng yu cu cho cp nc sinh hot v sn xut. Sng Tin chy qua Tn Chu, Sa c, Vnh Long ri chia ra lm nhiu phn lu ra bin ti 6 ca: Tiu, i, Ba Lai, Hm Lung, C Chin v Cung Hu. Sng Hu chy qua Chu c, Long Xuyn, Cn Th ri chia ra lm 3 nhnh ra bin ti cc ca: nh An, Bassac v Tranh . Sng

157

Tin v sng Hu ni vi nhau bng nhiu knh rch. Ngoi 2 sng Tin v Hu cn c mt s sng t nhin nh: sng Ca Ln, sng By Hp, sng ng c, sng Ci Ln v sng Ci B, sng Mang Tht. Tng lng dng chy nm trung bnh nhiu nm ca sng M Kng chy qua ng bng sng Cu Long ra bin khong 500 t m3, trong khong 23 t m3 do ma sinh ra trong ng bng sng Cu Long v 478 t m3 t nc ngoi chy vo (30 t m3). Nh vy, tng lng dng chy ca sng M Kng chim ti 59% tng lng dng chy ca c nc. M un dng chy nm trung bnh ca c vng bng 20 l/s.km2 tng ng vi su dng chy l 645 mm. Ma l xy ra khng ng thi gia trung, thng v h lu. L lt ng bng sng Cu Long ph thuc ch yu vo l ca sng M Kng t trung, thng lu v v do tc dng iu tit ca Bin H nn ma l vng ny thng t thng VII n thng XI, XII, chm hn ma l trung, thng lu khong mt thng v l thng ln, xung t t hn, v c 1 hay 2 nh. Khong 70 - 80% tng lng l sng M Kng chy qua sng Tin v sng Hu. c ct bn l lng ca sng M Kng tng i nh hn so vi h thng sng Hng. Dao ng trong phm vi t 500 g/m3 n 1660 g/m3 ti Tn Chu v 250 - 1200 g/m3 ti Chu c, c ct bn gim cn 100 - 550 g/m3 vo cc thng gia v cui ma l (thng X, XI). Trong knh rch, c ct bn tng i nh, thng di 50 g/m3. khong ho nc sng khong 100 - 150 mg/l, bin i khng nhiu theo dc sng. Nc sng thuc lp hydrocacbont nhm can xi kiu I; ion HCO3 thng chim 75 - 80% tng ng lng cc anion; ion Ca + + thng chim khong mt na tng s ng lng cc cation. Cc ion khc c hm lng thp. pH dao ng trong phm vi 6,7 - 7,7. Hm lng SiO2 nh hn 10 mg/l (2 - 5 mg/l), thp hn so vi cc sng min Bc. Hm lng cc c t nh kim, ng, ch, cadmiun thng nh; Zn: 0,02 mg/l; Cd: 0,009 mg/l; Pb: 0,004 mg/l; Cu: 0,09 mg/l. Cc cht dinh dng trong nc ph sa sng M Kng nh sau: N tng s: 0,24 - 0,54 mg/l; PO4 - P: 0,012 - 0,052 mg/l; P tng s: 0,024 - 0,106 mg/l. Tm li, cht lng nc sng Tin, sng Hu cn tt tho mn yu cu cho sn xut v i sng. Din tch b chua phn hng nm ng bng sng Cu Long khong 1 - 1,2 triu ha vi pH < 5. Mn xm nhp su trong sng ngi, knh rch. Din tch b nhim mn hng nm ln ti 1,7 triu ha. Trn cc nhnh sng ca sng M Kng ng bng sng Cu Long, mn c gi tr cao vo cc thng I - IV (trn 320/00) v gim cng 29 - 300/00 vo cc thng IX, X.

158

TI LIU THAM KHO

Ting Vit
1. Nguyn Kim Cng. a cht thu vn, NXB Khoa hc & K thut, H Ni, 1991. 2. Cao m, H Vn Khi. Thu vn cng trnh, NXB Nng nghip, 1993 3. Phm Ngc H- Hong Xun C. nh gi tc ng mi trng. NXBHQG H Ni 2001. 4. Nguyn Hu Khi, Nguyn Thanh Sn. M hnh ton thu vn, NXB HQG H Ni, 2003 5. Nguyn Hu Khi, Nguyn Vn Tun. a l thu vn, NXB HQG H Ni, 2001 6. nh Khi, Hong Nim. Dng chy l sng ngi Vit Nam. Vin Kh tng Thu vn H Ni, 1991. 7. Nguyn Xun Nguyn, Trn c H. Cht lng nc sng h v bo v mi trng nc, NXB Khoa hc & K thut, H Ni, 2004. 8. Nguyn Vit Ph, V Vn Tun, Trn Thanh Xun. Ti nguyn nc Vit Nam, NXB Nng nghip, H Ni, 2003 9. Nguyn Thanh Sn. Tnh ton thu vn, NXB HQG H Ni, 2004 10. Nguyn Thanh Sn, ng Qu Phng. o c v chnh l s liu thu vn, NXB HQG H Ni, 2003 11. Phm Ngc Ton, Phan Tt c. Kh hu Vit Nam. Nh xut bn Khoa hc & K thut, H Ni, 1993. 12. Nguyn Vn Tun, Nguyn Th Nga, Nguyn Th Phng Loan v Nguyn Thanh Sn Thu vn i cng,T.1, NXB Khoa hc & K thut, H Ni, 1991 13. Nguyn Vn Tun, Nguyn Th Nga, Nguyn Th Phng Loan v Nguyn Thanh Sn. Thu vn i cng,T.2, NXB Khoa hc & K thut, H Ni, 1991 14. Trn Tut, Trn Thanh Xun, Nguyn c Nht. a l thu vn sng ngi Vit Nam, NXB Khoa hc v K thut, H Ni, 1987 15. Trn Thanh Xun. Cc c trng nc sng ma cn, NXB Nng nghip, H Ni, 2004.

Ting Anh
16. Abraham Lerman, Dieter M. Imboden and Joel R. Gat Physics and Chemistry of Likes, Springer - Verlag New York, 1995 17.W. Boiten, Hydrometry A.A. Balkema/Rotterdam / Brookfield/2000 18. Gray, D.M. Principles of Hydrology Water information center. NewYork ,1997. 19. C.T. Haan, H.P. Johnson, D.L. Brakensiek. Hydrologic modeling of smal watersheds. ASAE Technical Editor: James A. Basselman, 1982. 20. Philip B. Bedient, Wayne C. Huber. Hydrology and Floodplain Analysis, Addison-Wesley Publising Company, 1992 21. Venter Chow David R. Madment. Applied Hydrology. McGraw-Hill,1988. 22. Vijay P.Sing, Environmental Hydrology. Klwer accademic publishers dordrecht, Boston, London 1995.

159

Ting Nga
23. . ., . ., . . ., 1986.- 158 . 24. . . 1972 25. . . .- .: , 1982.- 310 . 26. . . - 1979 27. . ., . . .: , 1985.- 256 .

160