24 

2555

Sector Update

? & (unchanged)

  (Petrochemical Sector)

2'@   :
SET Index :

324 &1 : 

  3.1% WoW !" "

$% &'()*+ ,-. /0 1 1+2&

1,019.13
1,189.35

$ 1N*@'  0%@'
http://kelive.kimeng.co.th
(02) 658-6300

PTTGC
TOP
VNT

PTTGC
TOP
TPC
VNT

VW 3 V


XY

Upside
(%)

Buy
Hold
Buy

78.00
71.00
20.00

14.3
3.3
8.1

Weekly net impact

Positive
Positive
Positive
Positive

YY

   
  
   
      
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 +*  2.5% WoW *'I 1,380
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+
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Petrochemical prices and spreads

Current 1 week
Feedstock cost
Naphtha US$/tonne)
Aromatics
Paraxylene (US$/tonne)
Benzene (US$/tonne)
Paraxylene-naphtha (US$/tonne)
Benzene-naphtha (US$/tonne)
Olefins
Ethylene (US$/tonne)
Propylene (US$/tonne)
HDPE (US$/tonne)
MEG (US$/tonne)
Ethylene-naphtha (US$/tonne)
Propylene-naphtha (US$/tonne)
HDPE-naphtha (US$/tonne)
MEG-0.65ethylene (US$/ton)
PVC
PVC (US$/tonne)
Ethylene Dichloride (EDC) (US$/tonne)
PVC-EDC (US$/tonne)
PVC-0.5ethylene (US$/tonne)

1 month

3 month

1 year

1,023

1,055

(3.1)

1,065

(3.9)

919

11.3

1,077

(5.0)

1,495
1,195
473
173

1,505
1,180
450
125

(0.7)
1.3
5.0
38.0

1,495
1,175
431
111

0.0
1.7
9.8
56.1

1,335
1,050
416
131

12.0
13.8
13.5
31.4

1,600
1,220
523
143

(6.6)
(2.0)
(9.7)
20.4

1,380
1,440
1,440
985
358
418
418
88

1,415
1,490
1,445
965
360
435
390
45

(2.5)
(3.4)
(0.3)
2.1
(0.7)
(4.0)
7.1
94.5

1,385
1,375
1,455
995
321
311
391
95

(0.4)
4.7
(1.0)
(1.0)
11.5
34.5
6.9
(7.1)

1,140
1,170
1,290
1,095
221
251
371
354

21.1
23.1
11.6
(10.0)
61.6
66.2
12.5
(75.1)

1,355
1,550
1,385
1,104
278
473
308
223

1.8
(7.1)
4.0
(10.8)
28.5
(11.8)
35.4
(60.6)

1,070
310
760
380

1,065
315
750
358

0.5
(1.6)
1.3
6.3

1,060
305
755
368

0.9
1.6
0.7
3.4

955
305
650
385

12.0
1.6
16.9
(1.3)

1,210
550
660
533

(11.6)
(43.6)
15.2
(28.6)

Source: Bloomberg, KELIVE Research estimate

Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) is a subsidiary of Malayan Banking Berhad

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR

Figure 1 : Both PX and BZ spreads rose (Positive to PTTGC and TOP)

PX, BZ, and naphtha prices; US$/ton

1,000
800
600
400
200

Naphtha

Jan-12

Apr-12

Jul-11

Oct-11

Jan-11

Apr-11

Jul-10

Px-naphtha

Benzene

Oct-10

Jan-10

Apr-10

Jul-09

Oct-09

Jan-09

Apr-09

Jul-08

Oct-08

May-08

Oct-07

Jan-08

Aug-07

Jan-07

-200

Apr-07

Jan/2012

Apr/2012

Jul/2011

Oct/2011

Jan/2011

PX

Apr/2011

Jul/2010

Oct/2010

Jan/2010

Apr/2010

Jul/2009

Oct/2009

Jan/2009

Apr/2009

Jul/2008

Oct/2008

May/2008

Oct/2007

Jan/2008

Aug/2007

Jan/2007

0
Apr/2007

2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

PX and BZ spreads; US$/ton

BZ-naphtha

Figure 2 : Upstream olefins spread declined but downstream product spreads increased (Net neutral to PTTGC but
positive to SCC)

Nov-11

Feb-12

Jun-11

Sep-11

Mar-11

Dec-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

Apr-10

Oct-09

HDPE-naphtha

Feb-12

Ethylene-naphtha

MEG

Aug-09

Feb-09

May-09

Nov-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Mar-08

Dec-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-07

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100

Apr-07

Feb-12

Nov-11

Jun-11

Sep-11

Mar-11

Dec-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

Apr-10

Oct-09

Ethylene

HDPE, ethylene, propylene, and MEG spreads; US$/ton

Nov-11

HDPE

Aug-09

Feb-09

May-09

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jun-08

Mar-08

Dec-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-07

2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

Apr-07

HDPE, ethylene, propylene, and MEG prices; US$/ton

MEG-0.65ethy lene

Figure 3 : PVC-0.5*ethylene and PVC-EDC increased (Positive to TPC and VNT)

PVC, EDC, and ethylene prices; US$/ton

800
700
600
500
400
300
200

EDC

Ethy lene

PVC-EDC

Jun-11

Sep-11

Mar-11

Dec-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

Apr-10

Oct-09

Aug-09

May-09

Feb-09

Nov-08

Jun-08

Sep-08

Mar-08

Dec-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-07

Apr-07

Feb-12

Nov-11

Jun-11
PVC

Sep-11

Mar-11

Dec-10

Jul-10

Oct-10

Jan-10

Apr-10

Oct-09

Aug-09

Feb-09

May-09

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jun-08

Mar-08

Dec-07

Jul-07

Oct-07

Jan-07

100
Apr-07

1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

PVC spread; US$/ton

PVC-0.5ethylene

Source : Bloomberg and KELIVE Research estimate

24  2555

PETROCHEMICAL SECTOR

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So urce: Tha i Institu te o f D ir ecto rs ( IOD )

THR E
Sco re Ra nge
TIP
90 -1 00
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N um be r of L ogo

De scriptio n
Exce llen t
Very Goo d
Goo d
S atisfacto ry
P ass
N/ A

No logo given

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24  2555

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