www.stox.

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H ng d n S d ng 14 Ch s Phn tch K thu t Thng d ng nh t trong u t Ch ng khon

Guide to the 14 Most Useful Technical Indicators for Stock Market Charts

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N i dung
1 2 3 Gi i thi u v Phn tch K thu t T ng quan v cc Ch s Phn tch K thu t Nhm Ch s Xu h ng Gi 4 5 6
6 7 8 9

3.1 ng Trung bnh Tr t Gi n n SMA 3.2 ng Trung bnh Tr t C p s Nhn EMA 3.3 D i Bin Bi n ng gi Bollinger 3.4 Ch s Bo hi u Gi o chi u Parabolic SAR

4
4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6

Nhm Ch s Bi n
Ch Ch Ch Ch Ch

ng gi

10
10 11 12 13 14 15

s Lu l ng Ti n MFI ng Trung bnh Tr t H i t v Phn k (MACD) s T l Thay i ROC s S c M nh Tng i RSI s Stochastic Ch m v Nhanh s Williams %R

5 6 7

Kh i l ng M c H tr v m c Khng c u

16 17 19

Fibonacci: M t ch s Hng

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Gi i thi u v Stox.vn

Stox.vn: Vietnams One Stop Financial Portal l m t thng hi u c a Hng Truy n thng Ti chnh StoxPlus chuyn cung c p cc gi i php thng tin t ng th v chuyn su v tnh hnh ti chnh, d li u th tr ng, bo co phn tch ch ng khon, cng c u t, cng cc s ki n v tin t c v cng quan tr ng cho nh u t c nhn v cc chuyn gia t i Vi t nam. S n ph m em n cho qu v thng qua web based portal, c giao di n thn thi n, d s d ng v hon ton c th customise theo mong mu n c a qu v . V i Stox.vn: Vietnams One Stop Financial Portal, qu s hon ton t tin v c a ra cc quy t nh u t sng su t v hi u qu nh t. y c s

i ng qu n l c a Cng ty l cc chuyn gia c b ng CFA, ACCA, MBA v c b d y trn 35 nm kinh nghi m chuyn su v u t, Ngn hng, Phn tch Ti chnh v Cng ngh t Trung tm Ti chnh Lun n, Anh Qu c, Th y S , c v ng Nam . Chng ti tin t ng r ng c m nang ny s gip ch cc qu v . N u qu v c n thm thng tin v d ch v c a chng ti, xin m i truy c p Vietnams One Stop Financial Portal theo a ch www.stox.vn.

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Gi i thi u v Phn tch K thu t

1.1 Phn tch K thu t l g?

R t n gi n, phn tch k thu t l vi c nghin c u hnh vi c a nh u t v tc ng c a cc hnh vi ny vo kh nng bi n ng gi ch ng khon. D li u ch y u c n th c hi n phn tch k thu t l l ch s gi ch ng khon v kh i l ng giao d ch trong m t kho ng th i gian nh t nh. Cc d li u ny gip qu v xc nh xu h ng th tr ng, d on bi n ng gi v cc tn hi u Mua, tn hi u Bn a ra quy t nh u t sng su t v c kh nng em l i k t qu cao. Stox.vn: Vietnams One Stop Financial Portal r t hn h nh c mang n cho qu v ti li u h ng d n v b 14 ch s phn tch k thu t. y l cc ch s r t thng d ng c gi i u t p d ng r ng ri nh t. N u qu v mu n tm hi u thm v cc bi u ti chnh v phn tch k thu t, xin m i qu v truy c p website c a chng ti www.stox.vn/stoxschool xem cc video clips v cc ch s ny v t i v cu n C m nang trn 300 trang v Phn tch K thu t.

1.2 Phn tch k thu t khc g so v i phn tch c b n

Phn tch C b n (Fundamental Analysis) ch y u l xc nh gi tr h p l c a c phi u. Cc chuyn gia phn tch c b n quan tm nhi u n m i quan h lin thng gi a tnh hnh ti chnh, d ton ti chnh, i ng lnh o, tri n v ng c a doanh nghi p v ti m nng tng tr ng. D a vo , cc chuyn gia phn tch c b n a ra b n nh gi v c phi u so v i cc n v trong cng ngnh, cng th tr ng v a ra k t lu n xem c phi u ang phn tch c b nh gi th p hn hay cao hn so v i gi tr n i t i c a n. Ph n l n cc bo co phn tch c phi u c a cc cng ty ch ng khon ho c cc ngn hng u t c so n l p d a vo cc phn tch c b n v cng ty. Chng ta nh gi cao cc phn tch c b n ny nhng ch c qu v cng ng v i chng ti r ng cng c n c m t cch ti p c n th c t hn. l vi c nh n bi t v phn tch cch th c m nh u t s d ng thng tin c b n nh th no v quan tr ng hn l ph i phn on c hnh ng giao d ch c a nh u t trn th tr ng. Hnh vi ny th ng c xem l mang nhi u c m tnh hay sentiment. R t nhi u chuyn gia cho r ng nh gi c m tnh c a nh u t l y u t quan tr ng nh t trong vi c xc nh gi c phi u. Chng ti tin r ng phn tch k thu t l cha kha gip qu v n m b t c hnh vi c a nh u t. M t s nh u t v cc chuyn gia phn tch tin r ng phn tch c b n v phn tch k thu t c tnh lo i tr nhau. R t nhi u chi n l c gia v chng ti khng ng v i quan i m ny. Chng ti cho r ng chng b tr r t t t cho nhau. Phn tch C b n v Phn tch K thu t nn c dng ng th i khi qu v a ra quy t nh mua hay bn. C r t nhi u nh u t thnh cng d a trn m t s k t h p h p l gi a Phn tch C b n v Phn tch K thu t.

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T ng quan v cc ch s Phn tch K thu t

M i ch s phn tch k thu t trong h ng d n ny u c gi tr s d ng ring. Do , s r t t khi qu v ph i dng c 14 ch s cng m t lc trong bi u phn tch c a mnh. Cc chuyn gia phn tch g i y l vi c l m d ng ch s v n c th nh h ng n hi u qu u t. Nh m tng c ng kh nng thnh cng trong vi c s d ng cc ch s k thu t, qu v ch nn s d ng m t ho c hai ch s m qu v quen dng nh t v p d ng trong bi u phn tch. Nh v y s lo i b c y u t nhi u t vi c p d ng qu nhi u cc ch s . Khi xc nh cc ch s k thu t a vo bi u , qu v ch nn l a ch n m t ch s trong cc nhm ch s sau: nhm ch s xu h ng gi, nhm ch s dao ng gi.

2.1 Nhm Ch s Xu h ng Gi
Nhm ch s ny cho bi t xu h ng c a gi c phi u, i ln hay i xu ng v khng b gi i h n b i kho ng giao ng no. Tuy nhin, trong m t ngy giao d ch c th th gi c phi u s n m trong kho ng giao ng c a bin giao ng cho php. Do cc ch s v xu h ng bi n ng gi d ch chuy n cng chi u v i s bi n ng c a gi c phi u, cc ch s ny th ng c v pha trn bi u gi c phi u. C 4 ch s xu h ng bi n ng gi quan tr ng m qu v nn p d ng:

ng Trung bnh Tr t Gi n n: Simple Moving Averages (SMA) ng Trung bnh Tr t C p s nhn: Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) Ch s Bin Bi n ng Gi: Bollinger Bands o chi u: Parabolic SAR (PSAR) Ch s Bo hi u Gi

2.2 Nhm Ch s Dao

ng Gi

Nhm ch s ny d ch chuy n ln xu ng trong m t bin nh t inh d a trn s bi n ng c a gi c phi u. Do cc ch dao ng gi khng d ch chuy n cng h ng v i gi ch ng khon nn chng th ng c trnh by pha d i bi u gi ch ng khon. C 6 ch s dao ng gi thng d ng:

Ch s Lu l ng Ti n: Money Flow Index (MFI) Trung bnh Tr t H i t (MACD) Ch s T l Thay Ch s S c m nh Tng Ch s Williams %R v Phn k: Moving Average Convergence and Divergence

i Gi: Rate of Change (ROC) i: Relative Strengh Index (RSI)

Ch s Stochatic Ch m v Nhanh

2.3 Nhm Ch s d a trn Kh i l ng

Khng gi ng nh nhm ch s xu h ng gi v ch s dao ng gi, thay v d a trn gi ch ng khon, cc ch s ny c xy d ng d a trn kh i l ng giao d ch. Do , cc ch s ny th ng c trnh by pha d i bi u gi. C 2 ch s thng d ng d a trn kh i l ng giao d ch:

Kh i l ng Kh i l ng + Trung bnh tr t
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Nhm ch s Xu h ng Gi

3.1 Trung bnh Tr t Gi n n SMA

ng Trung bnh tr t Gi n n: Simple Moving Average (SMA) l m t ch s ph n nh xu h ng gi, ch s ny lo i b cc bi n ng l n c a gi ch ng khon hng ngy v t o ra ng gi ch ng khon m m m i hn. Cng nh cc ch s k thu t khc, ng trung bnh tr t gi n n c xy d ng d a trn gi ch ng khon v do n c tr so v i m c gi ch ng khon hi n t i. Tuy nhin, thng tin ny cung c p nh ng tn hi u c c k h u ch. Qu v c th xy d ng n 3 ng trung bnh tr t gi n n trn m t bi u v qu v cng c th thay i khung th i gian cho m i ng. V d , n u qu v mu n hi n th 3 ng trung bnh tr t gi n n trn m t bi u , qu v c th ch n khung th i gian 30, 50 v 200. i u ny c ngha l ng trung bnh tr t gi n n u tin (v i khung th i gian 30) trung bnh ha bi n ng c a gi ch ng khon cho kho ng th i gian 30 ngy v a qua, ng trung bnh tr t gi n n th hai trung bnh ha bi n ng c a gi ch ng khon cho 50 ngy v a qua v tng t l ng trung bnh tr t gi n n th ba trung bnh ha gi ch ng khon trong 200 ngy v a qua. Vi c s d ng nh ng ng trung bnh tr t l cch r nh t xc nh h ng bi n ng gi c a gi ch ng khon. N u trung bnh tr t ang nhch ln c ngha l ch ng khon c chi u h ng i ln. Ng c l i, n u trung bnh tr t i xu ng d i, gi ch ng khon c chi u h ng gi m. D nhin, khung th i gian c a ng trung bnh tr t nh h ng l n thng tin ph n h i v m c giao ng c a ng trung bnh tr t. M t ng trung bnh tr t c khung th i gian ng n hn v d nh trung bnh tr t gi n n 30 ngy s ph n nh bi n ng gi ch ng khon trong th i gian g n y nhi u hn so v i m t ng trung bnh tr t c khung th i gian di hn ch ng h n nh trung bnh tr t gi n n 200 ngy. Qu v c th xem trong bi u pha d i c a c phi u AAPL. Trung bnh tr t 30 ngy th hi n b ng mu th hi n s bi n ng gi g n y nh t nhi u hn so v i ng trung bnh tr t 200 ngy c mu xanh. Cng theo bi u ny th ng trung bnh tr t gi n n 30 ngy c xu h ng i xu ng trong khi ng trung bnh tr t gi n n 200 ngy c xu h ng i ln.

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3.2 Trung bnh Tr t C p s Nhn EMA

Cng gi ng nh ng Trung bnh tr t Gi n n(SMA), ng Trung bnh tr t c p S nhn (Exponetial Moving Averages EMA) lo i b bi n ng gi ch ng khon hng ngy v t o ra m t ng ch y cng pha trn gi ch ng khon. i m khc bi n gi a EMA v SMA l y u t gia quy n. Gi ch ng khon cng g n y nh t th cng c ph n nh nhi u hn trong ng EMA. Cn i v i ng Trung bnh Tr t Gi n n th gi ch ng khon c t m quan tr ng ngang nh nhau trong c khung th i gian l a ch n. Qu v c th xem s khc bi t do y u t gia quy n c th hi n cho khung th i gian gi ng nhau cho th i gian 200 ngy cho bi u c phi u AAPL d i y. Ch n gi n thay ng Trung bnh Tr t Gi n n SMA b ng Trung bnh Tr t c p S nhn EMA, ng Trung bnh Tr t EMA 200 ngy ny d ch chuy n th p xu ng pha d i. Trong khi v i SMA 200 ngy ch y pha trn. Khi xem xt nn dng SMA hay EMA? Qu v c n t h i xem li u m c ch p nh n m o hi m trong u t. Nh ng nh u t m o hi m th ng a thch dng Trung bnh Tr t Gia quy n trong khi Trung bnh Tr t Gi n n ph h p hn v i nh ng nh u t t m o hi m hn. D l a ch n trung bnh gi n n ho c trung bnh nhn v i khung th i gian ng n hay di, qu v ph i th c hi n mua bn ch ng khon d a trn xu h ng gi m qu v ang phn tch.

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3.3 D i Bin

Bi n

ng gi Bollinger

D i Bin bi n ng gi Bollinger t o ra m t vng bao ph xung quanh ng Trung bnh Tr t Gi n n (SMA). D i bin Bollinger c xc nh d a trn m c bi n ng (volatility) c a gi ch ng khon. Khi gi ch ng khon bi n ng m nh, d i Bollinger s phnh to hn v ng c l i khi gi ch ng khon bi n ng t hn, d i Bollinger s d n thu h p l i. Trong cc bi u phn tch k thu t, d i Bollinger c xy d ng v i cc thng s ng m nh l 20 v 2. T c l d a trn ng Trung bnh Tr t gi n n 20 ngy v kho ng r ng c a d i l 2 l n c a l ch chu n (standard deviation). Qu v nn gi nguyn cc thng s ng m nh ny khi khi s d ng ch s ny. Hn n a, khi hi n th ch s d i Bollinger trn bi u , qu v nn hi n th c ng SMA 20 ngy do qu v c th hi n th s tng tc gi a d i Bollenger v ng SMA 20 ngy. R t nhi u nh u t s d ng d i Bollinger d on m c bi n ng gi c phi u v xc nh khi no ng trung bnh tr t gi n n SMA s i chi u. V d , n u qu v pht hi n th y hai ng bin d i Bollinger d ch chuy n ra xa nhau v b t u di chuy n theo hai h ng i l p v qu v bi t r ng gi c phi u v a bi n ng m nh. xc nh khi no th bi n ng gi c phi u ch m d t, qu v c th quan st n ng bin d i Bollinger m ang d ch chuy n cng h ng v i gi ch ng khon. Khi d i ny b t u chuy n h ng v c xu h ng h i t v i d i i l p, t c l s bi n ng c a gi c phi u hi n t i ang m t d n s c m nh. Qu v c th m tham kh o tnh hu ng c a AAPL trong gi a thng 2.

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3.4 Ch s Bo hi u Gi

o chi u Parabolic SAR

Parabolic SAR l ch s xu h ng gi c th gip qu v xc nh khi no th bn c phi u. SAR c vi t c a c m t ti ng Anh Stop And Reverse t c l D ng v i chi u khi qu v quan st th y gi ch ng khon c t ng Parabolic SAR, khi qu v c th xem xt bn c phi u. Qu v c th hnh dung ch s ny nh m t cng c k thu t c t l trong u t c a mnh. Cng gi ng nh d i Bollinger, qu v nn cc tham s nh d ng chu n khi v ch s ny.

Chng ta hy xem ch s ny c dng th no. ng Parabolic SAR sau khi chuy n h ng ln pha trn hay xu ng pha d i gi c phi u, n s ti n g n v d ch chuy n st hn v i ng gi c phi u cho n khi c t ng ny. ng Parabolic SAR s tr t v pha bn kia ng gi c phi u v quay l i b t u m t k ch b n tng t . Khi qu v dng ng Parabollic SAR nh m t ch s c t l , qu v s khng bao gi gi c phi u khi qu v bi t r ng ch s ny ang cho tn hi u l b n nn bn c phi u. Tuy nhin, ch s ny cng c h n ch c a n l n c th lm qu v bn c phi u trong lc n ch l m t tn hi u t m th i gi m gi tr c khi ti p t c tng cao hn tr c nh l tr ng h p c a c phi u c a AAPL di n ra trong Thng 11 nh trong bi u sau:

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Nhm ch s Bi n

ng gi

4.1 Ch s Lu l ng Ti n MFI
Ch s Lu l ng Ti n: Money Flow Index (MFI) l m t ch s bi n ng gi th hi n b ng m t ng d ch chuy n ln xu ng trong bin t 0 n 100. Cng g n 100 th ch s cng m nh v cng g n v 0 th ch s cng y u. y l m t ch s r t h u ch v n ph n nh c bi n ng gi c phi u v kh i l ng giao d ch. Ch s Lu l ng Ti n MFI gip qu v xc nh s c m nh c a bi n ng gi c phi u v do qu v c th phn on khi no th xu h ng tng hay gi m k t thc. C s l thuy t c a ch s ny l c nhi u nh chuy n, c th l do nh u t r t thch c phi c kh nng ti p di n trong tng lai. Ng c l phi u khi gi b t u d ch chuy n, th c l c nng xu h ng gi ti p t c d ch chuy n l th p. u t nh y vo giao d ch khi gi b t u d ch u ny v do xu h ng s d ch chuy n s i n u c t nh u t nh y vo mua bn c phi u t c nh u t quan tm v kh

Do ch s ny o l ng c bi n ng gi v kh i l ng, ch s Lu L ng Ti n MFI cho php qu v bi t l nh u t dang quan tm nhi u hay t n c phi u. N u nh u t quan tm nhi u, qu v s c nhi u s t tin hn trong giao d ch. Ng c l i n u nh u t quan tm t, qu v c th xem xt l i giao d ch c a mnh. V d , khi quy v th y gi c phi u ang tng trong khi Ch s Dng Ti n MFI th l i gi m nh tr ng h p c a c phi u HOV vo cu i nm 2005 qu v c xc nh c l nh u t ang m t d n s quan tm n s gia tng gi c phi u ny. V nh v y, b n thn gi c phi u c th khng ng l c n ti p t c tng.

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4.2

ng Trung bnh Tr t H i t v Phn k (MACD)

ng Trung bnh Tr l m t ch s bi n ng Trung bnh Tr t H i t ng trung bnh tr t H ng v cao c a ng MACD. t H i t v Phn k: Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) gi nhng n khng d ch chuy n trong m t kho ng xc nh. ng v Phn k MACD c xy d ng d a trn m i quan h gi a hai gi. MACD c hi n th b ng hai ng v m t bi u d ng c t. bi u c xc nh d a trn h ng v kho ng cch gi a hai

C hai d ng ng MACD ph bi n. M t l ng MACD c tnh ton cho 3 khung th i gian: 26 ngy, 12 ngy v 9 ngy. MACD th hai d a trn s tnh ton c a 3 khung th i gian: 17 ngy, 8 ngy v 9 ngy. ng MACD th nh t c khung th i gian di hn s t bi n ng hn ng MACD th hai v i khung th i gian ng n hn v do s cho bi t t tn hi u mua ho c tn hi u bn hn. Tn hi u mua v bn ph bi n nh t c t o khi cc hai ng MACD c t nhau. Qu v c th xem tnh hu ng ny qua minh h a ng MACD v b n cho c phi u HOV d i y. Khi cc hai MACD giao c t, bi u d ng c t cng c t ng trung tm (Zero line: M c s 0). Khi hai ng MACD giao c t ln pha trn th n gi n l tn hi u Mua. Ng c l i, khi hai ng MACD v bi u giao c t xu ng d i th n gi n l tn hi u Bn.

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4.3 T l Thay

i: Rate of Change (ROC)

Ch s T l Thay i ROC l ch s bi n ng gi, n d ch chuy n qua l i ng trung tm zero line (M c s 0). Ch s ny c tnh ton cho qu v bi t gi ch ng khon d ch chuy n bao xa so v i m c gi c. Qu v c th xc nh kho ng cch tch ton khi qu v l a ch n cc thng s khi v ch s ny trn bi u . C s l thuy t c a ch s ny l gi ch ng khon ch c th d ch chuy n theo m t chi u h ng v ph i d ng l i l y s c. Gi c th l y s c b ng m t trong hai cch:

N c th quay tr l i v tr xu t pht ban u b t u khi d ch chuy n; ho c i gi ch ng khon ph n nh thng tin v d li u l ch s .

D theo cch no i chng n a th hnh ng ny c minh h a trong Ch s T l Thay i. Khi gi ch ng khon b t u d ch chuy n m nh i ln ho c i xu ng, Ch s T l Thay i s d ch chuy n ra xa t ng trung tm (Zero Line: M c s 0). Sau , gi s d ng bi n ng, Ch s T l Thay i d ch chuy n v M c s 0. By gi chng ta hy xem m t tnh hu ng c th . N u qu v quan st th y n u Ch s T l Thay i ang m c c c cao hay c c th p, th t c l bi n ng gi l n x y ra v qu v c th xem xt cha nn v i v th c hi n giao d ch. N u qu v quan st th y Ch s T l Thay i b t u d ch chuy n ra kh i M c s 0, ho c chuy n h ng t i m c c cao hay c c th p v b t u d ch chuy n theo h ng i ngh ch nh l tr ng h p c a GE vo cu i Thng 11 v u thng 2 qu v c th xem xt s m th c hi n giao d ch.

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4.4 Ch s S c M nh Tng

i RSI
ng gi gi ng i d ch chuy n cao hn, bo n xu ng pha

Ch s S c m nh Tng i: Relative Strengh Index RSI l m t ch s bi n nh Ch s T l Thay i. i m khc bi t l ch s S c m nh Tng i RSI trong bin gi a 0 v 100. Khi Ch s S c m nh Tng i RSI d ch chuy n hi u cho qu v bi t l gi ang c s c b t m nh. Ng c l i, khi RSI d ch chuy d i, qu v c th bi t c l gi ch ng ang thi u s c b t.

Qu v c th l a ch n khung th i gian cho ch s ny khi bi u th trn bi u nhng xin lu l n u khung th i gian ch n cng ng n th Ch s S c m nh Tng RSI cng bi n ng m nh. Khi s d ng Ch s T l Thay i RSI, qu v c n quan st v xc nh khi no ng RSI tng cao hn 70 ho c th p hn 30. Khi ch s n m trong m t trong hai vng ny, bo hi u gi ch ng khon b bi n ng thi qu (over-extended) v s s m i chi u ho c s ng ng thay i trong tng lai g n. M t tn hi u quan tr ng bn hay mua khi s d ng RSI l khi qu v quan st th y ng RSI d ch chuy n ra vng 70:30. V d , n u Ch s RSI gi m xu ng d i m c 30 v ang chuy n h ng v pha trn m c 30 nh tr ng h p c a Citigroup trong thng 8 l m t tn hi u t t mua c phi u ny. Tn hi u Bn x y ra khi RSI trn 70.

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4.5 Ch s Stochastic Ch m v Nhanh

Ch s Stochastic Ch m l m t ch s bi n ng gi bao g m hai ng ( ng %K v ng %D) d ch chuy n ln xu ng trong bin t 0 n 100. ng %K line di chuy n nhanh hn. ng %D di chuy n ch m hn. Khi Ch s Stochastic Ch m di chuy n ln hay xu ng, qu v c th phn on c v c m nh n (sentiment) c a nh u t trn th tr ng. Khi ch s ny trn m c 80, hay d i m c 20 bo hi u l gi ch ng khon b bi n ng qu m c v c kh nng cao l gi ch ng khon s o s m o chi u. Quy v cng c th xc nh tn hi u MUA BN khi hai ng %K v %D c a Ch s Stochastic ch m giao c t nhau.

Khi ng %K c t ln pha trn ng %D, ch s ny th hi n tn hi u Mua. Ng c l i khi ng %K c t xu ng d i ng %D, cho ta bi t tn hi u Bn.

Cc tn hi u Mua Bn ny s m nh hn khi:

Cc i m giao c t m m trong vng trn m c 80% ho c d i m c 20% ho c Khi ng %K v a m i n m trong m t trong nh ng vng nh tr ng h p c a WalMart Stores (WMT) bi u pha d i.

ng Stochastic Nhanh cng tng t nh ng Stochastic Ch m. Tuy nhin, ng ny c xu h ng d ch chuy n ln xu ng nhanh hn nhi u. V do n t o ra nhi u tn hi u mua bn hn do c s bi n ng l n.

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4.6 Ch s Williams %R
Ch s Williams %R l m t ch s bi n ng gi. Ch s ny tng t nh Ch s T l Thay i ROC v ch s S c m nh Tng i RSI. Ch s ny bao g m m t ng n d ch chuy n ln xu ng trong bin 0 v 100. Ch s Williams %R so snh gi ng c a c a phin giao d ch g n y nh t v i kho ng gi giao d ch trong qu kh :

N u gi ng c a g n y nh t cng g n v i m c gi cao nh t c a kho ng gi trong qu kh th ng Williams %R s cng g n v i c c trn c a kho ng giao ng. Ng c l i, n u gi ng c a g n y nh t g n y c a kho ng gi trong qu kh , ng Williams %R s g n y c a kho ng giao ng.

B t c lc no ng Williams %R m n m trn 80 ho c d i 20 th gi c phi u u c xem l bi n ng thi qu (over-extended). Khi qu v quan st th y tnh hu ng ny, th c kh nng cao gi c phi u s o chi u. Ch s Williams %R t o ra cc tn hi u Mua v Bn khi n di chuy n ra kh i vng bi n ng thi qu (trn 80 ho c d i 20) v quay tr l i vng gi a c a kho ng giao ng nh qu v c th quan st v i tr ng h p c a Home Depot (HD) trong bi u d i y.

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Kh i l ng
Kh i l ng cho bi t c bao nhiu c phi u c giao d ch trong m t kho ng th i gian nh t nh. C r t nhi u nh u t cho r ng kh i l ng l ni cc nh u t t ch c (institutional investors) l i d u chn c a mnh trn th tr ng. Kh i l ng c th gip qu v xc nh n s c b t c a bi n ng gi.

N u c nhi u nh u t ang mua ho c bn - v n s ph n nh b ng con s v kh i l ng giao d ch qu v c th bi t r ng c s bi n ng gi v ng ch c. Ng c l i, n u c m t s l ng h n ch nh bi t r ng bi n ng gi c phi u r t y u t. u t ang mua v bn c phi u, qu v

Qu v c th quan st s tng gi m c a kh i l ng giao d ch tng hay gi m qua xem xt chi u cao c a bi u c t v kh i l ng. C t bi u cng cao th cng c nhi u kh i l ng giao d ch trong k . Kh i l ng + ng Trung bnh Tr t MA gip qu v xc nh xu h ng. Khi qu v quan st th y ng Kh i l ng Trung bnh Tr t ang i ln, qu v bi t c r ng ngy cng c nhi u nh u t ang quan tm n v gom c phi u v y l tn hi u th tr ng ang m (Con B tt: Bull) . Khi qu v quan st th y ng kh i l ng trung bnh tr t ang i xu ng, qu v c th phn on c l d n d n c t nh u t quan tm v y l tn hi u th tr ng m m (Con G u: Bear). Qu v khng ch nn ra quy t nh mua bn d a trn m t ch s kh i l ng. Tuy nhin n gip qu v xc nh n nh ng tn hi u mua bn khc trong lc ang quan st gi qua bi u .

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M c H tr v m c Khng c
Th u hi u v ng d ng cc khi ni m v M c H tr (Support level) v M c Khng c (Resistance level) l i u r t quan tr ng trong vi c xy d ng m t chi n l c u t k lu t v c nguyn t c. Gi ch ng khon th ng xuyn bi n ng ph n nh s thay i lin t c c a cung c u ch ng khon. Thng qua vi c xc nh cc m c gi m c s thay i l n v cung c u khng nh ng gip quy v xc nh m c gi mua vo m c m c gi m sau chng ta c th bn ra. Cc m c gi ny c th c t o ro b i th tr ng m t cch ng u nhin, tuy nhin chng u ph n nh quan i m ch quan c a cc thnh ph n tham gia giao d ch trn th tr ng.

6.1 M c h tr (Support Level)

M c h tr , hay cn g i l y l m c gi m nhu c u v c phi u c xem l m nh gi gi ch ng khon khng b gi m su hn n a. Theo cch suy lu n ny th khi m m c gi gi m g n n M c h tr , th ch ng khon c coi l kh r , ng i mua tng nh mu n mua v ng i bn gi m nh mu n bn c phi u. Khi gi ch ng khon gi m n m c h tr th nhu c u mua c a nh u t s tng m nh v nhu c u bn gi m i, ngn gi ch ng khon gi m xu ng d i m c gi ny.

M c H tr khng lun lun c nh v khi gi gi m su hn m c h tr (th ng y) bo cho ta tn hi u r ng nhm nh u t bears: con g u th ng nhm nh u t bulls: con b tt trn th tr ng. Khi gi gi m su ng d i m c h tr , hay cn g i l th ng y ch ra r ng nh u t s n sng bn nhi u hn v thi u nh ng y u t thc y nh u t mua vo. Khi y th ng, v hnh thnh m c gi th p hn (new low) cho bi t nh u t gi m k v ng v th m ch mu n bn ra v i m c gi th p hn. Hn n a, ng i mua khng th b p ph i mua cho n khi gi gi m ti p d i m c h tr m i. M t khi m c h tr b th ng, m t m c h tr m i s c thi t l p v i m c gi th p hn. M c h tr l m t ng th ng n i t nh t hai i m y ( i m A v C nh bi u trn). Cng c nhi u i m y ti m c n v i ng h tr th ng h tr ny cng cho tn hi u m nh. Thm vo , ng h tr c xem l m nh n u nh nghing c a n th p.

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6.2 M c Khng c

(Resistance level)

M c Khng c l m c gi m l c l ng bn ra c xem l m nh so v i l c l ng mua vo lm gi ch ng khon khng tng cao hn c n a. Theo cch suy lu n ny khi gi tng ln g n m c khng c , bn mu n bn tng nh bn ra v bn mu n mua gi m nh mua vo. Khi gi ti m c n v i m c khng c , th cung v c phi u s m nh hn c u. Do gi s t c kh nng tng thm hn n a (trn m c khng c ).

M c Khng c khng lun lun c nh v khi gi tng v t qua m c khng c cho ta tn hi u r ng nh u t bulls: con b tt chi n th ng v nhm nh u t bears: con g u. Khi gi ch ng khon v t qua m c khng c cho chng ta bi t nh u t s n sng mua vo v gi m nh bn ra. Khi m c gi khng c b xuyn th ng v t t i m c gi cao m i (new high) cho th y r ng ng i mua tng k v ng c a h v l i nhu n v s n sng mua th m tr v i m c gi cao hn. Khi m c khng c b xuyn th ng, m t ng khng c m i s hnh thnh m t m c cao hn. M c khng c l m t ng th ng n i t nh t hai i m nh ( i m A v C c a bi u trn). Cng c nhi u nh ti m c n v i ng khng c th ng ny cng cho tn hi u m nh. Hn n a, ng khng c c xem l m nh n u nh n khng qu d c.

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Fibonacci: M t Ch s Hng

7.1 T ng quan
Sau khi gi c phi u duy tr chuy n ng b n v ng theo m t h ng nh t nh (tng ho c gi m), gi c phi u c th truy h i m t kho ng (retrace= quay tr l i) tr c khi b t u di chuy n ti p. Ch s Fibonacci c dng d on cc m c gi h tr (support level) v cc m c gi tng lai (target prices) d a trn kho ng cch m gi d ch chuy n v cc b c sng c a gi (ware patten). V d : n u m t c phi u tng t m c 50 ngn VND ln 100 ngn VND v sau quay u gi m 50% (50% x VND 50 ngn), Quy lu t Truy h i Fibonacci d on m c gi s ri xu ng m c 75 ngn VND, tr c khi gi ti p t c tng ln. Fibonacci l dy s ton h c k di u c Leonardo Pisano, ng i pht minh t Th ky 12. R t nhi u s ki n trong t nhin v cu c s ng xung quanh chng ta ang di n ra tun theo quy lu t c a dy s ny. Th tr ng Ch ng khon l m t tr ng h p. Cc php t ng h p Fibonacci ny c s series l 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144...v n v t n. i u r t th v l l cc con s ny c m i quan h b t bi n v i nhau.

7.2 p d ng trong Phn tch K thu t

Con s Fibonacci thng d ng nh t trong phn tch k thu t ch ng khon l con s 61,8% (th ng c lm trn 62%), 38% v 50%. i u ny c ngha r ng khi xu h ng tng gi ho c gi m gi ch ng khon c xem l m nh, m c truy h i t i gi thi u thng th ng kho ng 38% v n c th ln t i 62%. V d trong bi u d i y gi c phi u tng t VND 105 ngn ln VND 121 ngn (tng 16 ngn, xem ng mu ). Khi gi t m c VND 121 ngn v b t u quay u, theo quy lu t Fibonacci p d ng vo phn tch ch ng khon, gi ch ng khon s truy h i kho ng 38% (38% x VND16 ngn= VND6 ngn) xu ng m c VND 115 ngn tr c khi tng ti p.

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7.3 Truy h i Gi Fibonacci (Fibonacci Retracements)

Truy h i Gi Fibonacci c xc m t i m nh. nh d a trn ng xu h ng gi a m t i m y v n 0%

N u xu h ng l i ln th ng Truy h i Gi Fibonacci s gi m d n t 100% N u xu h ng gi m, ng Truy h i Gi Fibonacci s tng d n t 0% ln 100%.

ng th ng n m ngang c v theo ba m c Fibonacci l 38%, 50% v 62% (xem bi u d i y). Khi m c gi truy h i, m c h tr v m c khng c th ng ti m c n ho c g n v i m c Fibonacci Retracement.

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7.4 Fibonacci Vng cung

Fibonacci vng cung c th c a vo cng bi u ho c c th c v n l . ng vng cung c v xung quanh i m y ho c i m nh g n y nh t. ng vong cung Fibonacci c t ng xu h ng gi g c (trendlines) t i cc i m giao c t c a ng Truy h i Fibonacci Retracements. Gi s c xu h ng ph n ng khi ti p xc cc ng vng cung v ng Truy h i retracements. Quy v c th xem cc i m ti p xc ny nh l m c h tr v m c khng c .

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7.5 D bo M c gi (Price targets)

Qu v cng c th ti n hnh nghin c u chuyn su d a trn cc con s Fibonacci xy d ng cc m c gi m c tiu (price targets). M t trong cc phng php l copy ng Fibonacci c vo pha trn ho c pha d i ng Fibonacci u tin (ph thu c vo xu h ng th tr ng th no). Phng php ny s cho qu v cc m c gi m c tiu d a trn m t b m i ng 38%, 50% v 68%.

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N u qu v mong mu n nghin c u su hn v bi u ti chnh v phn tch k thu t, m i qu v truy c p n Vietnams One Stop Financial Portal c a chng ti theo a ch www.stox.vn/stoxschool. Chng ti mi n tr trch nhi m v m i n i dung trong ti li u ny.

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Guide to the 14 Most Useful Technical Indicators for Stock Market Charts

H ng d n S d ng 14 Ch s Phn tch K thu t Thng d ng nh t trong u t Ch ng khon

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Table of Contents
1
1.1 1.2

Introduction to Technical Indicators

What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis versus Fundamental Analysis

4
4 4

2 3
3.1. 3.2. 3.3. 3.4.

Using Technical Indicators Trending indicators

Simple Moving Averages Exponential Moving Averages Bollinger Bands Parabolic SAR

5 6
6 7 8 9

4
4.1. 4.2. 4.3. 4.4. 4.5. 4.6.

Oscillating indicators
Money Flow Index Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Rate of Change Relative Strength Index Slow & Fast Stochastics Williams %R

10
10 11 12 13 14 15

5 6
6.1. 6.2.

Volume Support and Resistance

Support Resistance

16 17
17 18

Fibonacci: a leading indicator

19

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About Stox.vn

Stox.vn: Vietnams One Stop Financial Portal is a trademark of StoxPlus Corporation offering a complete suite of comprehensive real-time market data, investing and trading tools, fundamental information, powerful analytics, most relevant stories and up to date financial news for private investors and market professionals and in Vietnam via our user friendly and customisable webbased portal. We help investors made informed and potentially profitable investing decisions. Our Chairman, CEO and COO are MBA, CFA and ACCA holders, and in combination, have over 35 years of extensive and diverse experience in Investment and Technology, Banking, Corporate Finance with top Wall Street investment bank and asset managers and financial consulting firms in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia and Vietnam. We believe that this will be a helpful guidebook for investors in Viet Nam. For further information about our services, please visit www.stox.vn: Vietnams One Stop Financial Portal.

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Introduction to Technical Indicators

Quite simply, technical analysis is the study of investor behaviour and its effect on the subsequent price action of financial instruments. The main data that we need to perform our studies are the price histories of the instruments, together with time and volume information. These enable you to determine trend, market sentiment and various buy and sell signals in order make some extremely profitable investing decisions. Stox.vn is pleased to present below a suite of 13 most commonly used technical indicators. If you wish to master financial charts and technical analysis, please visit our website www.stox.vn to download Your Comprehensive Guide to Technical analysis of the Stock markets.

1.1 What is Technical Analysis?

1.2 Technical Analysis versus Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Analysis concerns itself with establishing the value of stocks and other instruments. The fundamental analyst will concern himself with complex inter-relationships of financial statements, demand forecasts, quality of management, earnings and growth, etc. He will then make a judgement on the share, commodity, or other financial instrument, often relative to its sector or market peers and form a judgement whether it is over- or under-valued. The majority of stock research from brokers or investment banks will be based on company fundamentals. At Investors Intelligence, while we admire much of this work we take a more pragmatic approach; we monitor and analyse the ways in which investors interpret this mass of fundamental data and how they then behave. This behaviour is collectively called sentiment. Our view is that investor sentiment is the single most important factor in determining an instruments price. We believe that technical analysis holds the key to monitoring investor sentiment. Some investors and market experts believe that fundamental analysis and technical analysis are mutually exclusive. We disagree. We think they are highly complementary and should work together to tell you what to buy or sell and when to buy or sell. Many successful traders use a combination of fundamental stock selection procedures and technical analysis timing filters with excellent results.

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Using Technical Indicators

Each technical indicator on this list serves a unique purpose when conducting a technical analysis. That being said, there will never be a time when you will want to add all 13 indicators to your chart at the same time. Market technicians refer to this over use of technical indicators as indicator piling, and it can hurt your investing performance. To enhance your investing success when using technical indicators, identify one or two indicators you can get to know well, and then apply those indicators to your charts. By doing so, you will remove most of the excess noise created by trying to apply too many indicators. When identifying the indicators you wish to include on your chart, consider taking only one indicator from the following groupings: trending indicators, oscillating indicators and volume-based indicators. Trending indicators are those that follow the trendwhether up or downof a security and are not limited by any predetermined ranges. Because trending indicators move in sync with the price movement of a security, they are usually plotted on top of the price chart. Here are the main four trending indicators: Simple Moving Average (SMA) Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Bollinger Bands (BBands) Parabolic SAR (PSAR)

Oscillating indicators are those that move back and forth, based on the price movement of the equity, within a predetermined range. Because oscillating indicators do not move in sync with the price movement of a security, they are usually plotted below the price chart. Here are the main seven oscillating indicators: Money Flow Index (MFI) MACD Rate of Change (ROC) Relative Strength Index (RSI) Slow Stochastic Fast Stochastic Williams %R

Volume-based indicators are those thatunlike trending and oscillating indicatorsare based on volume rather than price. Because volume-based indicators are not derived from the price movement of a security, they are usually plotted below the price chart. There are two main volume-based indicators: Volume Volume + MA

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Trending indicators

3.1 Simple Moving Averages A simple moving average is a trending indicator that eliminates the volatility of daily price movement and smoothes it out into a line that is plotted on top of the price movement of a security. As with all other technical indicators, a simple moving average is based on past price data and thus lags current price movement, but the information it provides is incredibly beneficial. You can add up to three simple moving averages on your chart, and you can customize the time frame for each one. For example, if you decided to plot three simple moving averages on your chart, you could select time frames of 30, 50, and 200. That means the first moving average would average out the price movement for the past 30 time periods, the second moving average would average out the price movement for the past 50 periods, and the last moving average would average out the price movement for the past 200 periods. Using moving averages is the easiest way to determine the trend of a security. If the moving average is pointing up, the security is trending higher. If the moving average is pointing down, the security is trending lower. Of course, the time frame of the moving average determines how responsive, or volatile, the moving average is going to be. A shorter-term moving averagesuch as the 30-period simple moving averageis going to be much more responsive than a longer-term moving averagesuch as the 200-period simple moving average. You can see this in the AAPL chart where the red, 30-period simple moving average moves more than the green, 200-period simple moving average. Looking at this chart, the shorter-term 30-period simple moving average is trending lower while the longerterm 200-period moving average is tending higher.

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3.2 Exponential Moving Averages An exponential moving average is a trending indicator that, like a simple moving average, eliminates the volatility of daily price movement and smoothes it out into a line that is plotted on top of the price movement of a security. The difference between exponential moving averages and simple moving averages, though, is exponential moving averages place more weight on the most recent data while simple moving averages weight all data equally. You can see the difference this weighting makes, especially on the 200-period moving average, as you look at the Apple Computers (AAPL) chart. Simply by changing from a simple moving average to an exponential moving average, the longer-term 200-period moving average is now trending lower, not higher as it was when using a simple moving average. When deciding whether to use an exponential moving average or a simple moving average, you need to ask yourself how aggressive you want to be in your investing. Aggressive investors are better suited for an exponential moving average because of its increased volatility while less aggressive investors are better suited for a simple moving average. Whether you decide to use simple or exponential moving averages or long- or short-term time frames, you should always try to trade with the trend of the security you are analyzing.

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3.3 Bollinger Bands Bollinger bands form an envelope that expands and contracts around a simple moving average. The expansion of the bands is based on the volatility of the equity. As the equity becomes more volatile, the bands expand. As the equity becomes less volatile, the bands contract. The default setting for Bollinger bands is 20 and 2, which means the indicator takes the past 20 time periods into account and bases its calculations based on two standard deviations from the mean. You will most likely want to leave the default unchanged when you plot this indicator. Also, when you plot Bollinger bands on your chart, you should also plot a 20-period simple moving average so you can visualize the simple moving average the Bollinger bands are interacting with. Many investors will use Bollinger bands to judge the magnitude of a stock movement and identify moments when the trend of the simple moving average may be coming to an end. For example, if you see the two Bollinger bands dramatically spread apart and start moving in opposite directions, you know the stock has just made a dramatic move. For a clue as to when that move may end you can keep an eye on the Bollinger band that is moving in the same direction as the price. When this band starts to turn around and converge with the other bandas it did in mid-February on Apple Computers (AAPL)you know the current price movement is losing momentum.

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3.4 Parabolic SAR Parabolic S-A-R is a trending indicator that can help you determine when to exit a trade. SA-R stands for stop and reverse, and when you see the price hit the parabolic S-A-R indicator on the chart, you may want to consider exiting your trade. You can look at is as a type of technical stop loss for your trades. Again, as with Bollinger bands, you will most likely want to leave the default settings alone when plotting this indicator. Heres how it works. The parabolic S-A-R, after if reverses from either above or below the price on the chart will slowly start to tighten up and move in closer and closer to the price until the price ultimately hits the indicator. This causes the indicator to flip over to the other side of the price and begin the process all over again. If you use the parabolic S-A-R as a stop loss indicator, you know you will never hold onto a trade that goes against you because it will tell you when to exit. However, it does have its limitations. It may take you out of trades that are only experiencing a momentary pull back before they continue on to higher and higher profits, as it did in November on the Apple Computers (AAPL) chart.

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Oscillating indicators

4.1 Money Flow Index

The money flow index is an oscillating indicator with a single line that moves back and forth between 0 and 100. The closer to 100 the indicator moves, the stronger it is, while the closer to 0 it moves, the weaker it is. The money flow index is an interesting indicator because is takes both price action and volume data into its calculation. With the money flow index, you are trying to establish the strength of a price move so you can know whether the move is likely to last. The theory is that if a lot of investors jump on board once the price starts moving, there is probably a lot of interest in that trade, and it will most likely continue in the future. If very few investors jump on board once the price starts moving, there is probably not a lot of interest in that trade, and it will most likely fail. By measuring both volume and price action, the money flow index is able to tell you if there is a lot of interest or just limited interest. If there is a lot of interest, you can have more confidence in your trade. If there is limited interest, you may want to reconsider your trade. For example, if you see price rising while the money flow index is fallingas it was in late 2005 on Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV)you know investors are losing interest in the upward movement of the price, and the price may not have enough support to continue to push it higher.

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4.2 Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The moving average convergence divergence, or MACD, is an oscillating indicator, but it does not move within a pre-defined range. The MACD is based on the relationship between two price-based moving averages. It is also plotted as both two lines and a histogram. The direction and height of the histogram is based on the direction and separation of the two MACD lines. There are two popular setups for the MACD. The first is based on calculations using three time frames: a 26-period, a 12-period, and a 9-period time frame. The second is based on calculations using three different time frames: a 17-period, an 8-period, and a 9-period time frame. The MACD based on longer time frames is less volatile than the MACD based on shorter time frames and will give fewer buy and sell signals. The most common buy and sell signals generated by the MACD are crossovers. A MACD crossover occurs when the two MACD lines cross. You can see this illustrated by both the MACD lines and the histogram, as on the Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) chart. When the lines cross, the histogram will also cross the flat, horizontal signal line. When the lines and histogram cross up, this is a simple buy signal. When the lines and histogram cross down, this is a simple sell signal.

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4.3 Rate of Change

The rate of change indicator is an oscillating indicator that moves back and forth across a zero line. It is based on a calculation that tells you how far the price has moved from a previous point in time. You can determine how far back the calculation goes when you set the parameters for this indicator on your chart. The theory behind the rate of change indicator is that price can move only so far in one direction before it has to stop and catch its breath. Now, it can catch its breath in one of two ways.

It can move back to its original position or It can wait while past price data catches up.

Either way, this action is illustrated on the rate of change indicator. When the price begins to make a large move, either up or down, the rate-of-change line will begin to pull away from the central zero line. Then as price movement takes a break, the rate-of-change line moves back toward the zero line. To put this into context, if you see the rate-of-change line at either a high or a low extreme, you know the major price movement has already happened, and you may want to wait to enter your trade. If you see the line beginning to move away from the zero line or turning around from one extreme and beginning to move in the opposite directionas it was in both late November and early February on the General Electric (GE) chartyou may want to consider entering your trade.

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4.4 Relative Strength Index

The relative strength index, or RSI, is an oscillating indicator much like the rate of change indicator except that it operates within a range-bound area between 0 and 100. As the RSI line moves higher, you know the price is enjoying increased strength. As the RSI line moves lower, you know the price is suffering from a lack of strength. You can choose the time period for the indicator when you plot it on your chart, but keep in mind that the shorter the time period, the more volatile the indicator will be. When using the RSI, you will want to watch for those times when the line rises above 70 or below 30. When the RSI line is in one of these areas, it indicates the price is overextended and will be prone to reversal or stagnation in the near future. Some of the most opportune times to buy or sell when using the RSI is when you see the line coming out of one of these areas. For example, if the RSI line has dropped below 30 and is turning around to move back above 30as it was in August on the Citigroup (C) chartthis may be a good time to buy.

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4.5 Slow & Fast Stochastics

The slow stochastic is an oscillating indicator consisting of two lines that move back and forth between 0 and 100. The faster moving of the two lines is the %K line, and the slower moving of the two lines is the %D line. The slow stochastic can give you a good idea of current market sentiment as it moves back and forth based on the price movement of the chart. When the slow stochastic lines rise above 80 or below 20, you know the price is overextended and there is a high probability you will see a price reversal in the near future. The slow stochastic also generates specific buy and sell signals as %K and %D cross back and forth.

When %K crosses above %D, the indicator is giving a simple buy signal. When %K crosses below %D, the indicator is giving a simple sell signal.

These signals become even more relevant:

When they occur above the 80 percent level or below the 20 percent level or When %K has recently been in one of these reversal zonesas you can see on the WalMart Stores (WMT) chart.

The fast stochastic is similar to the slow stochastic, but as the name suggests, it tends to move back and forth within its range more rapidly. This generates more buy and sell signals due to its increased volatility.

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4.6 Williams %R
Williams %R is an oscillating indicator that is similar to both the rate-of-change indicator and the relative-strength indicator. It consists of a single line that moves back and forth in a range between 0 and 100. This indicator compares the closing price of the most recent trading period with the trading range of the security during the past.

If the most recent closing price is near the top of the securitys trading range, the Williams %R line will be near the top of its range. If the most recent closing price is near the bottom of the securitys trading range, the Williams %R line will be near the bottom of its range.

Anytime the Williams %R line is above 80 or below 20, it is considered to be overextended. When you see these situations, you know there is a high likelihood of the price of the underlying security turning around and moving in the opposite direction. The Williams %R creates simple buy and sell signals as it moves out of these overextended areas and back into the middle of the time rangeas you see on the Home Depot (HD).

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Volume
Volume shows you how many shares of an equity traded during a given time period. Many investors say volume is where the large institutional traders leave their footprint on the market. Volume can help you confirm how strong price movement is.

If a lot of investors are buying or sellingwhich will be reflected in the volume numbersyou know it is a strong price movement. If a limited number of investors are buying or selling, you know it is a weak price movement.

You can see when volume is increasing or decreasing simply by looking at the height of the volume bars. The taller the bar, the more volume traded during that time period. Volume + MA helps you identify trends in volume. When you see the volume moving average heading higher, you know more and more investors are becoming interested in the equity which is a bullish sign. When you see the volume moving average heading lower, you know fewer and fewer investors are staying interested in the equitywhich is a bearish sign. While you cant make buying and selling decisions based on volume alone, it does help confirm other trading signals you are seeing on your chart.

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Support and Resistance

Understanding the concepts of support and resistance is vital in developing a disciplined trading strategy. Prices are dynamic, reflecting the continuing change in the balance between supply and demand. By identifying the price levels at which these balances change we can plan not only the price level at which to purchase but also the level at which we can subsequently sell (and vice versa for a short trade). Whilst these levels may be created by the markets subconsciously they represent the collective opinions of the participants in the markets.

6.1 Support Level Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further. The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.

Support does not always hold and a break below support signals that the bears have won out over the bulls. A decline below support indicates a new willingness to sell and/or a lack of incentive to buy. Support breaks and new lows signal that sellers have reduced their expectations and are willing sell at even lower prices. In addition, buyers could not be coerced into buying until prices declined below support or below the previous low. Once support is broken, another support level will have to be established at a lower level. Support is a line drawn between at least two troughs (Point A and C on the above chart). The more troughs which touch the support line, the stronger it is. Furthermore, the support line is considered strong if it is not too stiff.

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6.2 Resistance Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.

Resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance signals that the bulls have won out over the bears. A break above resistance shows a new willingness to buy and/or a lack of incentive to sell. Resistance breaks and new highs indicate buyers have increased their expectations and are willing to buy at even higher prices. In addition, sellers could not be coerced into selling until prices rose above resistance or above the previous high. Once resistance is broken, another resistance level will have to be established at a higher level. Resistance is a line drawn between at least two peaks (Point A and C on the above chart). The more peaks which touch the resistance line, the stronger it is. Furthermore, the Resistance line is considered strong if it is not too stiff.

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Fibonacci: a leading indicator

7.1 Overview
After making long sustained moves in one direction, many markets retrace a part of the move before continuing on further. The Fibonacci indicator is used to try and forecast potential support levels and price targets, based on the height of the overall move and any wave patterns. For example, if a stock increased from $5 to $10 and then slipped back 50%, this retracement would take it to $7.50 before it continued upwards again. This indicator uses mathematical ratios discovered by Leonardo Fibonacci's in the 12th century. The Fibonacci summation series is 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144... and so on to infinity. Interestingly, these numbers have the constant relationships

7.2 Interpretation
The most commonly used numbers in stock market technical analysis are 61.8% (usually rounded off to 62%), 38% and 50%. This means that, in a strong trend, the minimum retracement is usually close to the 38% level and may go as far as the 62% level.

7.3 Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci Retracements are based on a trendline drawn between a significant trough and peak. If the trend is rising, the retracement lines will descend from 100% to 0%. If the trendline is falling, the retracement lines will ascend from 0% to 100% Horizontal lines are drawn at the common Fibonacci levels of 38%, 50%, & 62% As the price retraces, support and resistance often occur at or near the Fibonacci Retracement levels.

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7.4 Fibonacci Arcs

Fibonacci arcs can be added to the same chart, or they can be charted alone. The arcs are drawn centered on the last peak or trough, crossing the original trendline at the points where the retracement lines intersect. The price will tend to "react" to both the arcs and the retracement levels, as they provide support and resistance.

7.5 Price Targets

More advanced studies can also be undertaken, based on the Fibonacci numbers, to develop price targets. One such approach is to add a second copy of the original Fibonacci grid above or below the first (depending on which way the market is trending). This will give you potential price targets based on adding a new set of 38%, 50% and 62% lines.

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