TpchKhoahcHQGHN,KhoahcTnhinvCngngh26,S3S(2010)413418

Tnh ton nhu cu nc cc ngnh kinh t lu vc sng Cu

Nguyn Nh, Nguyn Thanh Sn*, Ng Ch Tun
Khoa Kh tng Thy vn v Hi dng hc, Trng i hc Khoa hc T nhin, HQGHN, 334 Nguyn Tri, H Ni, Vit Nam
Nhn ngy 11 thng 8 nm 2010 Tm tt. Nghin cu thc hin tnh ton nhu cu s dng nc trong cc ngnh kinh t thuc lu vc sng Cu phc v trc tip cho bi ton cn bng nc.Qua phn tch kt qu tnh ton cho thy nng nghip ng vai tr ch o trong nn kinh t khu vc, chim n 70% tng nhu cu nc ca ton lu vc, ng thi thy c mc bin i mnh ca nhu cu nc trong cc lnh vc khc theo khng gian v thi gian, cung cp thng tin h tr cho cc nh chnh sch trong qun l bn vng ti nguyn nc. T kha: Nhu cu nc, Sng Cu, CROPWAT

1. M u Ti nguyn nc gn lin vi cc hot ng i sng ca con ngi v cc ngnh kinh t khc. S phn b khng u theo c khng gian v thi gian ca ti nguyn nc tc ng n nhu cu v bi ton cung cp nc. Thm vo , s cnh tranh s dng nc ngy cng tng cao gia cc ngnh do tc tng dn s, cng nghip v th ha. V th s dng ti nguyn nc hiu qu p ng nhu cu ca cc ngnh kinh t khc nhau, tnh ton nhu cu nc phc v cho bi ton cn bng nc l cn thit, t a ra li gii cho bi ton quy hoch v qun l ti nguyn nc. L mt lu vc ma t, m un dng chy chun ca lu vc sng Cu vo loi nh, lng ma phn b khng u theo khng gian v thi gian dn n tnh trng thiu ht nc, c bit l vo ma kh. Trong nghin cu ny,

s dng s liu ca 4 trm (Bc Cn, nh Ha, Hip Ha, Thi Nguyn) t nm 1961 n nm 2007 lm u vo cho m hnh CROPWAT trong tnh ton nhu cu nc nng nghip v s liu thu thp t nin gim thng k 2007 ca 6 tnh phc v tnh ton nhu cu nc cho cc ngnh kinh t thng qua nh mc dng nc. Mc tiu chnh ca nghin cu l tnh ton nhu cu nc cho cc ngnh kinh t phc v trc tip cho bi ton cn bng nc. ng thi cung cp mt ci nhn tng quan v tnh hnh s dng nc v nhng vn bc xc trong khu vc, tnh phc tp ca vn c nhn nh v hiu mt cch y , khch quan, t chun b hng nghin cu cho tng lai v tr gip cc nh chnh sch i vi bi ton s dng ti nguyn nc bn vng. 2. Phng php tnh Tnh nhu cu dng nc cho cc ngnh kinh t theo nh mc quy nh ca cc vn bn 413

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Tc gi lin h. T: 84-4-38584943 E-mail: sonnt@vnu.edu.vn

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hin nay c ban hnh bi cc c quan chc nng ca Nh nc Vit Nam [1]. Ring i vi nng nghip c nh gi bng m hnh CROPWAT. M hnh c pht trin bi FAO nm 1990 tnh ton nhu cu dng nc, phc v cc d n qun l v quy hoch ti. M hnh thc hin tnh ton lng bc thot hi chun, nhu cu nc ti ca cy trng xy dng k hoch ti cho cc iu kin qun l v cung cp nc khc nhau. N cho php a ra cc xut ci thin thc tin ti, k hoch ti v nh gi sn phm theo cc iu kin ma hay thiu ht nc ti. CROPWAT s dng phng php FAO (1992) Penman-Monteith tnh ton lng bc thot hi chun theo cng thc (1). Xy dng lch ti v nh gi thc tin ti v ma da vo cn bng m t theo ngy vi cc la chn cung cp nc v qun l ti khc nhau. Lch cung cp nc tnh ton cho cc v ma c cung cp trong chng trnh [2]
ETo = 0.408 (R n G ) + 900 u 2 (e s e a ) T + 273 (1) + (1 + 0.34u 2 )

cng thc kinh nghim ca FAO: Vi lng ma thc t P tot < 70 mm th lng ma hiu qu Peff c tnh:: Peff = 0.6 Ptot 10 khi P tot 70 mm th: Peff = 0.8 Ptot 24 3. Kt qu v tho lun S dng nc bin i gia cc khu vc do s khc bit v iu kin kh hu, iu kin t nhin, tp tc v tnh hnh kinh t. 3.1. Trng trt Nhu cu nc cho nng nghip, c bit l trng trt, l loi nhu cu nc ph bin nht cc tiu vng trn lu vc sng Cu v nhiu ni khc. Nhu cu nc cho nng nghip to p lc ln tng i ln i vi ti nguyn nc thng qua khai thc trc tip - cung cp nc ti, l yu t quan trng trong bi ton cn bng nc v qun l bn vng ngun nc. Din tch t trng trt bin i ln gia cc khu vc v gi tr (hnh 1, 2). Trn hnh 1 ta c th quan st thy din tch t nng nghip c xu hng phn b tng dn t khu vc pha Bc n khu vc pha Nam sng Cu, t ng sang Ty, nh du s tng phn gia cc khu vc Bc v Nam, ng v Ty ca lu vc. iu ny gy nh hng ln n phn b nhu cu nc ti cho nng nghip trn c lu vc cng nh 16 tiu vng nh hnh 3. nh hng ny c th hin r hn qua phn b din tch trng trt (hnh 2) v nhu cu nc nng nghip (hnh 3). Theo kt qu tnh ton, nhu cu ti nhiu nht khu h sng Cu (524.9 triu m3), chim n hn 90% tng lng nc ti trn lu vc. Bn cnh , s thay i din tch t nng nghip theo thi gian trn tng tiu vng hay thi v l nguyn nhn dn n xu hng (3) (2)

ETo = bc thot hi chun [mm/day]; Rn = bc x thc b mt rung [MJ/m2.day]; G = dao ng nhit ca t [MJ/ m2.day-1]; T = nhit khng kh trung bnh ngy cao 2 m [C]; U2 = tc gi cao 2 m [m/s]; es = p sut hi nc bo ha [kPa]; ea = p sut hi nc thc t [kPa]; es - ea = ht p sut hi nc bo ha [kPa]; = dc ng cong p sut hi nc [kPa C-1]; v a = hng s m [kPa C-1]. Trong m hnh c 4 la chn phng php tnh ma hiu qu: 1) C nh t l phn trm lng ma hiu qu, 2) Cng thc kinh nghim ca FAO/AGLW, 3) Cng thc kinh nghim vi cc h s kinh nghim c xc nh theo s liu c th ca tng a phng v 4) Cng thc kinh nghim theo c quan bo v t ca M. Trong nghin cu ny s dng

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phn b khc nhau ca nhu cu nc theo thi gian trong nm din ra vi 3 xu hng chnh 3 khu vc Thng, Trung v H sng Cu (hnh 4).

mnh vo thi k sau , ch dao ng trong khong 0.2 n 1 triu m3. Trong tng khu vc nhu cu nc cng bin i tng i ln, dao ng t ch khong 0.2 triu m3 khu I2 n khong 6 triu m3 khu I3. Trn hnh a ra nhu cu nc khu I2 lm i din c gi tr nhu cu nc trung bnh bin i trong khong 3 triu m3.

Hnh 2. T l din tch t nng nghip v t s dng khc lu vc sng Cu.

Hnh 1. Din tch t nng nghip (t m) v s dng khc (nht) nm 2007 lu vc sng Cu.

C th, ba tiu vng nm thng sng Cu c chung mt xu th bin i, thp nht vo thng VII, v cao nht vo thi k thng IV, thng IX l thi k bt u v kt thc ma ma trong lu vc. Trong khi xu th bin i cho 6 tiu vng nm phn trung sng Cu li c xu hng nhu cu nc tng mnh t thng II n thng X, nh im l vo thng VIII. khu vc h sng Cu c chung mt xu hng khc, nhu cu nc tng vt vo thng X, ring khu IV2 c thm mt nh vo thi k thng VI (xp x 83 triu m3), nhng li gim

Tnh hnh cng tng t 2 khu vc cn li, nhng s dao ng gia cc tiu vng nm khu h sng Cu bin i mnh hn. Cng ti cc tiu vng khc nhau bin ng mnh c theo khng gian v thi gian bn cnh yu t phn b din tch t nng nghip cn chu nh hng ca iu kin kh hu v thi v tng loi cy trng.

Hnh 3. Tng nhu cu nc cho trng trt nm 2007 trn cc tiu vng.

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Nhu cu nc cung cp cho ti trn ton b lu vc xp x 1.3 t m3/nm. Trong hu ht cc tiu vng nhu cu nc cung cp nhiu nht cho v la v ng, iu c ngha l lu vc sng Cu, loi cy ch o l la v ng. Ngoi ra thay i theo khng gian, tng tiu vng cn c thm loi cy ch o khc v d nh cy cng nghip khu vc bc sng Cu, ch min trung lu vc. Khu h sng cu cn c cc loi cy ch o khc nh cy n qu, khoai, sn, lc, u... trong rau xanh cng chim t l tng i ln khu vc ny.

lng nc tiu th ln nht trung bnh thng hn 2 triu m3 tiu vng IV2 trong khi lng nc tiu th thp nht tiu vng I6 ch mc di 0.03 triu m3.

Hnh 5. Phn b nhu cu nc thng cho sinh hot nm 2007.

Hnh 4. Nhu cu nc cho trng trt theo thng nm 2007 tiu vng III2.

3.2. Nhu cu s dng nc cho sinh hot, th, thng mi, du lch, dch v, cng nghip v chn nui. Ngun nc cung cp cho sinh hot v cc hot ng th phi cnh tranh vi trng trt, mi trng v c cc ngnh kinh t khc. Trong khi nc ti cho nng nghip chim mt lng ln, vn nhu cu nc sinh hot v th to nn thch thc i vi cc nh quy hoch trong vn tm ngun cung cp nc thch hp p ng c nhng nhu cu ny. S thay i dn s, mt v phn b dn c l nhng yu t quan trng nh hng n nhu cu nc, c bit l nhu cu nc sinh hot. Trn hnh 5 c th thy s khc bit ln trong loi nhu cu ny gia cc tiu lu vc,

Nc s dng cho hot ng th cng nh cc hot ng thng mi, du lch , dch v, cng nghip v chn nui u c cng dng phn b theo khng gian tng t nhu cu nc cho sinh hot v cng c cng dng phn b nhu cu nc cho nng nghip, nhng bin i ln v lng. Nhu cu nc cho cc hot ng th ch chim hn khong mt na nhu cu nc sinh hot, dao ng t 2800 m3 n hn 1.1 triu m3. Du lch ng vai tr quan trng nh s tng ln dn s theo ma gy p lc i vi ti nguyn nc thng qua tiu th nc trc tip hay thng qua cung cp nc cho cc nh du lch. Mc d trong thi gian qua, du lch pht trin thnh mt nhnh quan trng trong nn kinh t khu vc, nhng nhu cu nc ch chim mt lng nh, khong 1/10 nhu cu nc sinh hot, xp x 9 triu m3 trn ton lu vc. So vi 3 loi nhu cu trn th cng nghip chim lng ln hn, t nhu cu thp nht hn 5000 m3 n gn 6 triu m3. Tng lng nc cung cp cho hot ng cng nghip xp x 113 triu m3/nm, trong lnh vc ny nhu cu nc bin i gia cc tiu lu vc l do ch c mt s t khu cng

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nghip hot ng vi cng sut ln, cc nh my tp trung ch yu khu vc Sc Sn, H Ni v Thi Nguyn, gn 100 nh my, x nghip cng rt nhiu c s sn xut t nhn. Bn cnh , nhu cu nc cho chn nui chim mt lng gn bng nhu cu nc cho sinh hot, khong 103.2 m3/nm. V nhu cu nc t hn cng nghip nn chnh lch gia cc tiu vng khu h sng Cu gim.

khu vc IV2, III2, l tiu vng nm khu vc thnh ph H Ni v mt s cc i tp trung ch yu khu vc trung sng Cu. Do lng nc dng cho mi trng, giao thng thy v y mn l lng nc cn duy tr sc sng ca dng sng. Mt cch gn ng c th coi y l lng nc cn duy tr dng chy mi trng. Nhu cu nc cho giao thng thy v bo v mi trng c ly bng 95% tng lng nc ma kit trong : cc thng ma kit c tn sut m bo t 95% tr xung s khng c s dng. V th c th ni ti nguyn nc vng lu vc sng Cu phn b nhiu vng min trung lu vc, v phn b kh ng u trn lu vc. Ring trong lnh vc thy sn, v l khu vc nm xa bin nn ch c hot ng thy sn nc ngt mt s tiu vng bc khu thng sng Cu, nhu cu nc trong lnh vc ny chim lng khng ng k, khong 36 triu m3 cho ton lu vc.

Hnh 6. Nhu cu nc thng cho hot ng GT&BVMT 2007.

Hnh 7. Nhu cu nc thng cho hot ng thy sn 2007.

Hnh 8. Biu phn b c cu dng nc ca cc h dng nc trn lu vc.

3.3. Giao thng thy v bo v mi trng, thy sn. Khc vi nhu cu nc ca cc ngnh kinh t nu trn, nhu cu s dng nc cho giao thng thy v bo v mi trng phn b ng u hn gia cc tiu vng, ngoi tr cc tiu

T cc kt qu th hin trn hnh 8 thy r trng trt vn l ngnh kinh t ch o. Nhu cu nc cho trng trt xp x 70% tng lng nc tiu th trn ton lu vc, trong khi lng nc cung cp cho du lch chim khng n 1% trong tng nhu cu nc, lnh vc hot ng t nht trong cc ngnh kinh t trong khu

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vc. Nhu cu nc cho cc hot ng thng mi, du lch, dch v v chn nui xp x nhau, 9.06 v 8.28% tng ng. Bn cnh hot ng du lch, hot ng thy sn trong khu vc cng din ra ch mt s tiu vng, chim 2.9% tng nhu cu nc. 4. Kt lun Nghin cu s dng m hnh CROPWAT tnh nhu cu nc cho trng trt v cc ngnh dng nc khc thng qua nh mc dng nc. T c th rt ra mt s kt lun sau, th nht nhu cu nc gia cc ngnh bin i rt mnh, t vi triu cho n t m3 nc. Th hai, trong cc yu t c cp n, yu t gy p lc ln nht i vi ti nguyn nc l nng nghip [3], m quan trng nht l nhu cu nc ti chu nh hng mnh ca din tch nng nghip cng nh thi v cy trng. Tng lng nc cn cung cp cho nng nghip chim n gn 70% tng nhu cu nc tiu th ca cc ngnh kinh t, ng vai tr ngnh kinh t chnh ca lu vc. Th ba, phn b v mt dn c cng l yu t cha kha nh hng n nhu cu s dng nc trong cc ngnh kinh t, c bit l nhu cu nc sinh

hot. Hn na cc hot ng kinh t trong lnh vc cng nghip, thy sn ch tp trung mt s vng, iu ny cng tc ng ln n nhu cu nc trong tng lnh vc. Th t, trong tng lnh vc, nhu cu nc trn lu vc bin i mnh theo c khng gian v thi gian. S bin i ny ngoi nhng yu t nu trn cn chu tc ng ca iu kin kh hu, s bin i ca ti nguyn nc theo khng gian v thi gian. Th nm hot ng kinh t din ra ch yu khu h sng Cu, v cui cng da vo cc kt qu cc nh chnh sch c th xy dng phng n, gii php cho bi ton qun l bn vng ti nguyn nc. Ti liu tham kho
[1] FAO (Food CROPWAT, a planning and Irrigation and 1990. and Agriculture Organization), computer program for irrigation management. Author, Smith M. Drainage Paper 46, Rome, Italy,

[2] Tiu chun nh mc quy hoch nng nghip v cng nghip thc phm, Nh Xut bn Nng nghip, H Ni, 1990 [3] Nguyn Thanh Sn, Quy hoch tng hp ti nguyn nc tnh Qung Tr n 2010, Tp ch Khoa hc HQGHN, Khoa hc T nhin v Cng ngh, T.XXII, s 2B PT(2006) 139.

Estimation of water demands for various economic sectors in Cau river basin
Nguyen Y Nhu, Nguyen Thanh Son, Ngo Chi Tuan
Faculty of Hydro-Meteorology & Oceanography, Hanoi University of Science, VNU, 334 Nguyen Trai, Hanoi, Vietnam

This study is conducted to calculate water demand in economic sectors for Cau river basin, support directly for water balance problem. The results reveal the important part of agriculture in the economic of this area, which occupied 70% the total of water demand of river basin, and the strong variation of water demand in sectors both in spatial and temporal, support in water resources sustainable management activities. Keywords: CROPWAT, water use, Cau river basin.