XY DNG BO CO NGN LU TI CHNH CA D N

Thm nh d n u t
ThS Phng Thanh Bnh

i hc Kinh t TP.HCM Khoa Kinh t Pht trin Email: ptbinh@ifa.edu.vn

Mc tiu bi ging
Cu trc bng bo co ngn lu ti chnh theo phng php trc tip Mt s bin dng ngn lu c bn Nguyn tc v quy c xy dng bo co ngn lu

Thnh phn ca bo co ngn lu

Phng php xy dng bo co ngn lu Quy trnh xy dng bo co ngn lu theo phng php trc tip Ph lc

PT TH TRNG
MARKET ANALYSIS

PT KY THUAT
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

PT NHAN LC
MANPOWER ANALYSIS,

BNG THNG S
U T NGUN VN DOANH THU CHI PH KHC

K HOCH U T

K HOCH HOT NG

K HOCH KT THC

BO CO NGN LU TIPV BO CO NGN LU EPV

Cu trc bng bo co ngn lu (TIPV)

Bo co ngn lu ti chnh ca d n l mt bng m t cc khon thc thu (cash receipts) v thc chi (cash expenditures) ca d n qua thi gian.

Bo co ngn lu thng cu trc thnh hai phn chnh: (i) Ngn lu vo v (ii) Ngn lu ra, v hiu ca ngn lu vo v ngn lu ra l ngn lu rng (net cash flow, NCF).

Cu trc bng bo co ngn lu (TIPV)

Thng bt u bng vic xy dng bo co ngn lu quan im tng u t (TIPV), ri suy ra bo co ngn lu theo quan im ch s hu (EPV):
Ngn lu

Ngn lu TNG U T

TI TR (CFD)

(FCF)

Ngn lu CH S HU (CFE)

Cu trc bng bo co ngn lu (TIPV)

Vng i d n, bt u t nm 0, kt thc nm thanh l (n hoc n+1) Ngn lu vo (CIF) Ngn lu ra (COF) Ngn lu rng (NCF) trc thu Thu thu nhp doanh nghip (nu c) Ngn lu rng sau thu

Cu trc bng bo co ngn lu (TIPV)

Nm 1. Ngn lu vo 0 1 n

Tng ngn lu vo
2. Ngn lu ra

Tng ngn lu ra
3. Ngn lu rng trc thu 4. Thu thu nhp doanh nghip 5. Ngn lu rng sau thu = (3) (4) = (1) (2)

Cu trc bng bo co ngn lu (TIPV)

Nm 1. Ngn lu vo 1.1 Doanh thu thun 1.2 Thay i khon phi thu 0 1 n

1.3 Gi tr thanh l
1.4 Tr cp (nu c)

TNG NGN LU VO

= (1.1) + (1.2) + (1.3) + (1.4)

Cu trc bng bo co ngn lu (TIPV)

Nm 2. Ngn lu ra 2.1 u t vn 0 1 n

- Ti sn mi - Ti sn hin hu
2.2 Chi ph hot ng 2.3 Vn lu ng

- Thay i khon phi tr - Thay i s d tin mt

TNG NGN LU RA = (2.1) + (2.2) + (2.3)

Cu trc bng bo co ngn lu (TIPV)

Cu trc bo co ngn lu TIPV c th c thit lp mt cch chi tit hn theo hng dn ca Harberger & Jenkins (2002) hoc USAID (2009)

Mu bo co ngn lu theo USAIDS (2009)

Cu trc bng bo co ngn lu (EPV)

Nm 1. Ngn lu rng sau thu (TIPV) 2. Ngn lu ti tr 0 1 n

2.1 Vn vay 2.2 Tr n

3. Ngn lu rng sau thu (EPV)
= (1) + (2.1) (2.2)

Bin dng ngn lu

Bin dng ngn lu l bin dng ca dng NCF sau thu

Thc thu tr thc chi

Giai oan hoat ong

0

Giai oan au t ban au

7 8 9

10

11

12 13

14

Bin dng ngn lu

Bin dng ngn lu l bin dng ca dng NCF sau thu
Giai oan hoat ong
Thc thu tr thc chi

Giai oan au t ban au

7 8 9

10

11

12 13

14

Bin dng ngn lu

Bin dng ngn lu l bin dng ca dng NCF sau thu
Giai oan hoat ong
Thc thu tr thc chi

Giai oan au t ban au

7 8 9

10

11 12 13

14

Bin dng ngn lu

Bin dng ngn lu l bin dng ca dng NCF sau thu
Thc thu tr thc chi

Giai oan hoat ong

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Giai oan au t ban au

Nguyn tc v quy c xy dng bo co ngn lu

Nguyn tc c bn

Thc thu, thc chi

Ngoi l

Chi ph c hi ca cc ti sn hin hu Chi ph chm ca cc khon chi trong qu kh

Trnh tnh trng
Phn b chi ph c nh

Lu

Nguyn tc v quy c xy dng bo co ngn lu

Quy c

Nm bt u d n: NM 0 Nm kt thc d n: NM n (c s xc nh?) Nm thanh l: NM n + 1 (ty vo d n) Thi im pht sinh li ch v chi ph: CUI MI GIAI ON (CUI NM) n v tin t: NI T Khu hao: NG THNG

Thanh ton cc khon mua bn chu: MT NM

Cc thnh phn ca bo co ngn lu

Thng tin u vo xy dng bo co

ngn lu c t chc theo trnh t thi

gian ca ba giai on:

Giai on u t Giai on hot ng Giai on kt thc

Cc thnh phn ca bo co ngn lu

Mi giai on phi c cc k hoch tng ng Hu ht cc thng s yu cu cho cc k hoch ny c cung cp t cc m-un k thut, th trng, nhn lc v ti tr (nh cp trc y).

Cc thnh phn ca bo co ngn lu

Cc k hoch ch yu ca mt d n:

K hoch u t K hoch hot ng K hoch kt thc d n

Cc k hoch ny s c trnh by chi tit cc phn sau

Phng php xy dng bo co ngn lu

C hai phng php

Trc tip Gin tip

Kt qu thm nh theo hai phng php phi nh nhau

Phn ln ni dung kha hc s c hng dn theo phng php trc tip

Phng php xy dng bo co ngn lu

Xy dng bo co ngn lu theo phng php trc tip tng i n gin v khng i hi nhiu kin thc v k ton v ti chnh doanh nghip

Tuy nhin, hin nay nhiu d n do doanh nghip Vit Nam thc hin vn thng s dng phng php gin tip

Xy dng bo co ngn lu theo phng php trc tip

Bc 1: Bng thng s ca d n (*) Bc 2: K hoch u t

Bc 3: K hoch hot ng
Bc 4: K hoch kt thc d n

Bc 5: Bo co ngn lu TIPV
Bc 6: Bo co ngn lu EPV

BNG THNG S

Cc kt qu k vng
Cc bin s ca d n c tng hp theo phn nhm c th Hu ht cc con s trong bng thng s phi c nhp tay (?) Nu d n c nhiu phng n khc nhau th phi lp bng thng s ring cho tng phng n

Bng thng s ca d n
Phn bit Assumptions vi Decisions?

ngha ca vic phn bit ny trong phn tch ri ro nh lng l g? ngha ca bng thng s c g khc nhau gia chuyn vin phn tch v ngi ra quyt nh?

Bng thng s ca d n
u t

Doanh thu hot ng

Ti sn mi

Cng sut, sn lng Gi, ch s tng/gim gi Trc tip

Ti sn hin hu
Vn ch s hu

Ti tr

Chi ph hot ng

Vn vay, li vay, v.v.

Chi ph vn

Gin tip

Thng tin khc (thu,

thu quan, tr cp, t gi, lm pht, thanh l, v.v.)

Bng thng s ca d n
n v tnh phi nht qun

D liu c tng hp theo nm (nh tin lng, in, nc, v.v.)

i khi, sut chit khu v li sut danh ngha phi tnh theo cng thc
V d: rd,m = rd,r + gP + rd,r*gP

Bng thng s ca d n

V d minh ha d n bt ng sn

Ngun: Trn Vn c, 2009

Tng chi ph u t (*)

Thng tin u vo:

Gi nh tnh ton Quy hoch

u ra: Tng mc u t v thnh phn ca tng mc u t

Tng chi ph u t

V d minh ha d n bt ng sn

Ngun: Trn Vn c, 2009

K HOCH U T

Cc kt qu k vng
K hoch u t ti sn mi Gi tr cc ti sn hin hu (nu c) Lch khu hao ti sn Nhu cu v ngun vn u t Lch vay v tr n Ngn lu ti tr

K hoch u t
Kt hp thng tin t cc phn tch th trng v phn tch k thut thit lp mt k hoch chi tit cho cc khon chi tiu vn k vng hng nm trong sut giai on u t ca d n.

K hoch u t
Gm hai phn:

Chi tiu mua sm (thc chi) cc ti sn mi ca d n v chi ph c hi ca cc ti sn hin hu m d n s s dng Cc kha cnh ti tr d n

C th c cc k hoch khc nhau cho cc quy m/v tr khc nhau (phng n khc nhau)
Da trn tin thc t (*)

K hoch u t
t ai, mt bng Chi ph xy dng Chi ph my mc, thit b Chi ph t vn thit k Chi ph qun l d n D phng ph Chi ph khc
X l cc loi thu ra sao?

Nn phn theo nhm hng ha/dch v ngoi thng v phi ngoi thng; v mi hng mc nn chia nh theo cc thnh phn ca n (nu c th)

Ngun: USAID, 2009, pp.70

Ngun: USAID, 2009, pp.70

Ngun: Harberger & Jenkins, 2002

K hoch u t
Cn phn bit gia chi ph c hi v chi ph chm ca mt ti sn khi lp k hoch u t.

Chi ph c hi ca vic s dng mt ti sn cho mt d n c th l li ch mt i do ti sn s khng c s dng cho mt mc ch tt nht khc.

K hoch u t

Gi tr ca mt ti sn c xem l chi ph chm nu ti sn khng c mt mc ch s dng no khc. Loi ti sn nh vy c chi ph c hi bng khng.

Chi ph c hi ca cc ti sn hin hu thng c a vo nm 0 trong ngn lu d n. nh gi v x l gi tr cc ti sn hin hu nh th no?

K hoch u t
Nm Nm t ai Nh xng Thit b Khc 0 Ngn lu ra t ai Nh xng Thit b Khc 0

K hoch u t
Xc nh ngun ti tr cho cc khon chi tiu u t k trn

Vn ch s hu

Vay trong nc
Vay nc ngoi (nu c)

Ngun no c a vo ngn lu vo ty vo quan im thm nh

K hoch u t

V d minh ha d n bt ng sn

Ngun: Trn Vn c, 2009

X l t ai
t sn c (xem nh ti sn hin hu)

Theo gi th trng ti thi im u t Chi ph vn u t ban u (nm 0) Khng tnh khu hao

Gi tr thanh l bng gi tr u t ban u c iu chnh lm pht

Khng phn b vo gi vn (chi ph hot ng trong bo co thu nhp)

X l t ai
t do nh nc giao

Chi ph n b gii phng mt bng,

ti nh c (hoc chi ph giao t khc)

c xem nh chi ph vn u t

Phn b chi ph ny nh th no?

X l t ai
t thu

Tr mt ln: Xem nh chi ph vn u t (ti nm thanh ton tin thu) trong bo co ngn lu (v phn b nh th no?) Tr hng nm: Xem nh chi ph hot ng hng nm trong bo co ngn lu (v phn b nh th no?)

Lch khu hao

Mc ch:

Tnh chi ph khu hao hng nm a vo bng Bo co thu nhp, t c nh hng n ngn lu rng ca d n thng qua l chn thu ca khu hao Tnh gi tr thanh l v GI TR THANH L l mt hng mc ca ngn lu vo

Lch khu hao

Lu :

Khu hao khng phi l mt hng mc ca bo co ngn lu, nhng c nh hng n ngn lu rng ca d n thng qua l chn thu Nu chi ph vn u t cc nm khc nhau th nn lp cc lch khu hao ring Bt u tnh khu hao khi no? Tnh khu hao trn c s chi ph u t cha bao gm cc loi thu nh trn doanh s (*)

Lch khu hao

Lu :

Nu c lm pht th gi tr thanh l s c tnh bng gi tr cn li theo s sch (*) c iu chnh ch s lm pht trong nc (nm thanh l so vi nm u t) Nu d n c u t cc ti sn v hnh th khu hao c tnh bng gi tr u t/vng i d n (khng c gi tr thanh l) S nm khu hao thng phi tun theo quy nh ca nh nc

Lch khu hao

Nm Gi tr ti sn u k Khu hao trong k Khu hao tch ly Gi tr ti sn cui k 0 1 n

Lch khu hao

Nm 0 1 n

Nm Ngn lu vo

n+1

Gi tr ti sn u k Khu hao trong k

Khu hao tch ly
Gi tr ti sn cui k

Gi tr thanh l
iu chnh lm pht

Lch khu hao

Nm Gi tr ti sn u k Khu hao trong k Khu hao tch ly Nm NCF trc thu Thu .. 0 1 n

Bo co thu nhp

Gi tr ti sn cui k

NCF sau thu NPV

Lch vay v tr n
Mc ch:

Tnh li pht sinh a vo Bo co thu nhp nhm xc nh gi tr l chn thu ca li vay Tnh NGN LU TI TR, t suy ra NCF ca d n theo quan im ch s hu (CFE) CFE = FCF + CFD

Lch vay v tr n
C cc phng thc hay sau:

Tr vn gc u, khng n hn Tr vn gc u, c n hn Tr vn gc v li u, khng n hn Tr vn gc v li u, c n hn Ch n hn vn gc

S n vay dng tnh s tin phi tr n hng nm l s n u k ca k bt u tr n

Lch vay v tr n
Nm (1) N u k 0 1 m

(2) Li pht sinh trong k

(3) Tr n Tr vn gc Tr li
thng s dng hm PMT thng s dng hm PPMT thng s dng hm IPMT

(4) N cui k

= (1) + (2) (3)

Lch vay v tr n
Lu :

Li vay danh ngha La chn ng s n u k ca thi im bt u tr n (*) N cui k ti thi im kt thc hp ng vay vn phi bng 0 Nu c vay ngoi t phi lp bng ring bng ngoi t, ri i sang VND theo t gi danh ngha hin hnh

Lch vay v tr n
Lu :

Theo phng thc tr vn gc v li u th khon n phi tr hng nm phi tnh theo cng thc PMT (PPMT v IPMT) Bn cht ca cng thc PMT l da trn cng thc tnh hin gi dng tin u hu hn (xem bi ging gi tr tin t theo thi gian)

Lch vay v tr n
Gi s gi:

A = s tin phi tr hng nm theo phng thc vn gc v li u PV = S n u k bt u thi im tr n AFrn = Tha s chit khu ca dng tin u hu hn vi n nm tr n v li sut r

Ta c:

PV A n AFr

(1 r ) 1 AF n r (1 r )
n n r

Lch vay v tr n
Nm
(1) N u k (2) Li pht sinh trong k

Bo co thu nhp

(3) Tr n Tr vn gc
Tr li

Nm NCF trc thu Thu NCF sau thu NPV

..

(4) N cui k

Lch vay v tr n
Nm
(1) N u k (2) Li pht sinh trong k (3) Tr n Tr vn gc Tr li
Nm NCFTIPV Ngn lu ti tr NCFEPV ..

Ngn lu ti tr

(4) N cui k

Lch vay v tr n
Nm
(1) N u k (2) Li pht sinh trong k (3) Tr n Tr vn gc Tr li
PV(L chn thu) L chn thu

(4) N cui k
TIPV vs AEPV

Lch vay v tr n
Nm
(1) N u k (2) Li pht sinh trong k (3) Tr n Tr vn gc Tr li
Nm EBIT Li vay EBT Thu ..

(4) N cui k
NCF

Ngn lu ti tr
Nm 0 1 2 3 4

(1) Tin vay

(2) Tr n (3) Ngn lu ti tr (3) = (1) (2)

K HOCH HOT NG

Cc kt qu k vng
Doanh thu hot ng Chi ph hot ng

Trc tip Gin tip

Vn lu ng
Bo co thu nhp d tr

K hoch hot ng
c pht trin trn c s cc d liu t cc m-un k thut, th trng, v nhn lc Cc hng mc chi ph hot ng cng nn chia theo nhm hng ha/dch v ngoi thng v phi ngoi thng Mi khon chi nn c chia theo cc thnh phn ca n (nu c th)

Ngun: USAID, 2009, pp.75

Doanh thu hot ng

Cng sut hot ng

Sn lng sn xut
Sn lng tn kho (nu c) Sn lng tiu th Gi bn n v Ch s tng/gim gi v ch s lm pht

Lu : Ch l doanh thu thun

Doanh thu hot ng

Mc ch:

Doanh thu thun trong ngn lu vo Doanh thu thun trong bo co thu nhp C s xc nh cc khon phi thu (%)

C s tnh mt s chi ph hot ng (%)

Cn phn bit doanh thu vi thc thu

C chuyn hon thu VAT khng?

Ngun: USAID, 2009, pp.74

Doanh thu hot ng

V d minh ha d n bt ng sn

Ngun: Trn Vn c, 2009

Chi ph hot ng
Chi ph hot ng trc tip

Nhn cng trc tip Nguyn liu trc tip Chi ph sn xut chung

Lu : Hy thn trng vi hng mc khu hao (v

phn b cc chi ph u t ban u)

Chi ph hot ng gin tip

Chi ph qun l (x l khu hao?) Chi ph bn hng

Chi ph hot ng
Mc ch:

L mt hng mc trong ngn lu ra

L c s tnh gi vn hng bn (nu d n c tn kho)/hoc chi ph trc tip trong bo co thu nhp

C s xc nh cc khon phi tr (%)

Lu :
Cn phn bit khon chi v thc chi X l cc loi thu ra sao?

Ngun: USAID, 2009, pp.76

Chi ph hot ng
Gi vn hng bn

Khi d n c tn kho thnh phm th cn xc nh gi vn hng bn (COGS) v y ch l mt hng mc trong bo co thu nhp

COGS = sn lng tiu th X gi thnh

Gi thnh nm t = tng chi ph trc tip nm t (k c khu hao)/sn lng sn xut nm t

Phng php tnh gi thnh gi nh l FIFO

Chi ph hot ng

V d minh ha d n bt ng sn

Ngun: Trn Vn c, 2009

Bo co thu nhp
Dng xc nh thu thu nhp d kin phi np ca d n C hng mc khu hao/phn b chi ph u t Khc nhau gia quan im TIPV & AEPV (?) Khng tnh thay i vn lu ng Thng khng quan tm gi tr thanh l (?) X l chi ph c hi v chi ph chm nh th no? Dng c tnh NCF theo phng php gin tip Dng tnh cc tiu ch nh gi d n da vo ch s ti chnh

Bo co thu nhp
Nm Tng doanh thu (-) COGS* (bao gm khu hao) (-) Chi ph qun l & bn hng EBIT (-) Tr li vay EBT Thu TNDN Thu nhp rng 1 n

Bo co thu nhp
Nm
Tng doanh thu (-) COGS* (cha k khu hao) Li nhun gp (-) Chi ph qun l & bn hng EBITDA (-) Khu hao

EBIT
(-) Tr li vay EBT Thu TNDN

Thu nhp rng

Bo co thu nhp
Nm Tng doanh thu (-) COGS* (-) Chi ph qun l & bn hng EBIT 1 n Nm NCF trc thu Thu TNDN ..

(-) Tr li vay
EBT Thu TNDN Thu nhp rng

NCF sau thu

Bo co thu nhp

V d minh ha d n bt ng sn

Ngun: Trn Vn c, 2009

Vn lu ng
Vn lu ng = Ti sn ngn hn N ngn hn, thng bao gm:

Ti sn ngn hn thng gm: Tin mt v chng khon; cc khon phi thu; tn kho; v cc chi ph tr trc.
N ngn hn thng gm: Cc khon phi tr; v cc khon n n hn.

Vn lu ng
Cc khon phi thu (AR) thng l % ca doanh thu Cc khon phi tr (AP) thng l % ca tng chi ph hoc chi ph ca cc nhp lng chnh

Cn i tin mt (CB) thng l % ca chi ph, doanh thu, hoc chi ph ca cc nhp lng chnh

Vn lu ng
Nhu cu vn lu ng c xc nh da trn cc c s sau y:

Cc d n tng t ang thc hin

Tiu chun/Trung bnh ca ngnh

Phi nht qun vi cc chun mc hot ng ca ngnh

Nu cao/thp hn th cn c nhng gii trnh hp l (nht l cc d n cng)

Vn lu ng
Tng/gim vn lu ng c xem nh ngn lu ra/vo, thm ch khi chng vn ngay trong d n Nu tng vn lu ng, th d n khng th dng tin cho cc u t khc. Chnh v th tng vn lu ng c xem nh khon chi ph c hi ca d n Vn lu ng c hon li khi d n kt thc, v c xem nh ngn la vo

Vn lu ng
Quy c (theo phng php trc tip)

ARt = ARt-1 ARt APt = APt-1 APt

CBt = CBt CBt-1

ARt xem nh mt hng mc ngn lu vo

APt xem nh mt hng mc ngn lu ra

CBt xem nh mt hng mc ngn lu ra

Vn lu ng
Nm
Nm AR AP CB AR AP 0 AR0 AP0 CB0 1 AR1 AP1 CB1 = AR0 AR1 = AP0 AP1 n+1

..

Ngn lu vo
AR Ngn lu ra AP CB

CB

= CB1 CB0

Vn lu ng
Nm AR AP CB AR AP CB 0 1 180 120 100 -180 -120 100 2 230 160 180 -50 -40 80 3 270 210 200 -40 -50 20 270 210 -200 4

Vn lu ng Mt cch x l khc (p dng kh ph bin):

Bc 1: Tnh nhu cu vn lu ng
Bc 2: Tnh thay i vn lu ng

Bc 3: a vo ngn lu ra

Nm

T l
3.20% 2.25% 2.15% 2.75% 2.50% 1.25% 2.25% 2.25%

Ti sn lu ng
Phai thu t khach hang Tra trc cho nh cung cp Cac khoan phai thu khac Cng cu dung cu Hang mua tn kho Tam ng Chi phi tra trc

N ngn hn
Phai tra khach hang

Tam ng cua khach hang

Thu phai tra Nh nc Phai tra cng nhn vin Cac khoan phai tra khac

1.15%
3.25% 2.25% 4.25%

Vn lu ng rong Thay i vn lu ng rong

Vn lu ng
Nu vn lu ng tng ln > 0, tng u t vn (thc chi) Nu vn lu ng gim xung < 0, gim u t vn (thc thu)
ngha:

C vay tr gip d n vn hnh lin tc, tri chy (ging bnh xng con trong cc ng c t trong) tnh cc khon THC THU v THC CHI

Vn lu ng

V d minh ha d n bt ng sn

Ngun: Trn Vn c, 2009

K HOCH KT THC D N

Gi tr thanh l
Ti sao phi c k hoch kt thc d n?
Do vng i d n khng trng vi vng i ca nhiu ti sn s dng trong d n Do kh nng phn tch khng th m rng qu xa trong tng lai, nn => Gi tr thanh l ca ti sn phi c c tnh a vo ngn lu d n.

Gi tr thanh l
Nm thanh l thng c quy c l nm sau khi d n dng hot ng Nn phn loi gi tr thanh l theo cc loi khc nhau nh t ai, nh xng, thit b, xe c, Xc nh gi tr thanh l nh th no?

BO CO NGN LU

Nm 1. Ngn lu vo Doanh thu thun

AR
Gi tr thanh l 2. Ngn lu ra u t vn c nh Chi ph hot ng

AP
CB 3. Ngn lu rng trc thu 4. Thu thu nhp doanh nghip 5. Ngn lu rng sau thu TIPV = (3) (4) = (1) (2)

Nm 1. Ngn lu vo

Doanh thu thun

Gi tr thanh l 2. Ngn lu ra u t vn c nh Thay i vn lu ng Chi ph hot ng 3. Ngn lu rng trc thu = (1) (2)

4. Thu thu nhp doanh nghip

5. Ngn lu rng sau thu TIPV = (3) (4)

Nm 1. Ngn lu rng sau thu TIPV

2. Tin vay 3. Tr n
4. Ngn lu rng sau thu EPV Nm 1. Ngn lu rng sau thu TIPV 2. Ngn lu ti tr 3. Ngn lu rng sau thu EPV = (1) + (2) 0 = (1) + (2) (3) 1 n

Nm 1. Ngn lu vo Doanh thu thun Gi tr thanh l

Tin vay
2. Ngn lu ra u t vn c nh

Thay i vn lu ng Chi ph hot ng

Tr gc v li 3. Ngn lu rng trc thu = (1) (2)

4. Thu thu nhp doanh nghip 5. Ngn lu rng sau thu EPV = (3) (4)

S dng bo co ngn lu
Tnh ton cc tiu ch nh gi d n d trn ngn lu cha chit khu Vi sut chit khu ph hp, ta s tnh c cc tiu ch nh gi d n da vo ngn lu chit khu (DCF) Phn tch ri ro

Quy trnh xy dng bo co ngn lu?

PH LC
Cu trc bo co ngn lu ti chnh theo phng php gin tip Quy trnh thc hin trn Excel
c lng doanh thu hot ng v chi ph hot ng Cc vn khc

Cu trc bo co ngn lu theo phng php gin tip

Ngn lu t hot ng kinh doanh

Li nhun rng (trc thu hoc sau thu) iu chnh cc khon thu chi khng bng tin mt (v d khu hao) iu chnh cc khon thay i vn lu ng

Ngn lu t hot ng u t Ngn lu t hot ng ti chnh (quan im EPV)

Quy trnh thc hin trn Excel

Bng thng s Xc nh tng mc u t Lp k hoch u t Xc nh nhu cu vn K hoch khu hao Bo co thu nhp Bo co ngn lu

K hoch vn lu ng
Doanh thu hot ng Chi ph hot ng

Quy trnh thc hin trn Excel

Nm Thu nhp rng sau thu 0 n

(+) Li vay
(+) Khu hao/Cc phn b khc (+) Thay i cc khon phi thu (+) Gi tr thanh l (-) u t vn c nh (-) Thay i cc khon phi tr (-) Thay i khon cn i tin mt

(-) Thay i cc khon tn kho

Ngn lu rng sau thu (TIPV)

Quy trnh thc hin trn Excel

Nm 0 n

Thu nhp rng sau thu

(+) Li vay (+) Khu hao/Cc phn b khc

(+) Gi tr thanh l
(-) u t vn c nh (-) Thay i vn lu ng Ngn lu rng sau thu (TIPV)

Quy trnh thc hin trn Excel

Nm Thu nhp rng sau thu (+) Li vay (+) Khu hao/Cc phn b khc (+) Gi tr thanh l 0 n

(-) Thay i vn lu ng
(-) u t vn c nh (+) Vn vay (-) Tr gc v li

Ngn lu rng sau thu (EPV)

c lng doanh thu v chi ph ca d n (*)

Khng ai c th d bo chc chn mt d n s nh th no trong tng lai Cc kt qu thc t c th khc vi k vng do lun tn ti nhiu yu t ri ro
Lm sao c th gii quyt vn khng chc chn lm tng tin cy cho kt qu thm nh mt d n?

c lng doanh thu v chi ph ca d n

Theo Damodaran (2002), doanh thu v chi ph ca d n c th c c lng nh sau:

Da vo kinh nghim qu kh

Da vo kho st/kim chng th trng

Da vo phn tch kch bn

Kinh nghim qu kh
Qu trnh c lng doanh thu v chi ph cho cc d n mi n gin nht l xem xt cc d n tng t c thc hin trong qu kh. p dng i vi cc d n tng t nh cc d n trc y ca cng ty. c lng tt, cng ty phi c mt c s d liu tt v cc d n trc y.

Kinh nghim qu kh
Li ch ca kinh nghim qu kh:

Tng/gim doanh thu trong tng giai on pht trin ca d n. Giai on t nng sut cao nht/thp nht/trung bnh.

Chi ph u t v chi ph hot ng.

Chnh lch doanh thu/chi ph so vi d bo, v nguyn nhn ca s chnh lch.

Kinh nghim qu kh
Nu d n thuc lnh vc khc vi cc lnh vc trc y ca cng ty th sao?

Kinh nghim qu kh
Cng c phn tch:

Thng k m t ( suy ra gi tr trung bnh v lch chun) th Ma trn h s tng quan

Phn tch tng quan v hi quy

Xem v d minh ha sau y:

Kinh nghim qu kh
Cng ty trang tr nt tht Home Depot (xem Damodaran, 2002) ang phn tch mt d n mi tng t cc d n trc y m cng ty thc hin. Vic u tin l h thu thp v nh gi li cc thng tin t cc d n trc y nh doanh thu, chi ph, u t ban u, v.v., v chnh lch gia gi tr thc t v k vng.

Kinh nghim qu kh
S ca hng 30 55 80 120 150 110 60 50 26 Doanh thu/ca hng <$25 Mil. 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 >$60 Mil.

160 140 120

S ca hng

100 80 60 40 20 0 <$25 25-30 30-35 35-40 40-45 45-50 50-55 55-60 >$60 Mil. Doanh thu hng nm/Ca hng

Kinh nghim qu kh
T d liu ca cc ca hng hin ti, ta tnh c gi tr doanh thu k vng v lch chun nh sau:

E(doanh thu)

= $44 Mil.

Dev(doanh thu) = $3.58 Mil.

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 <1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 >10

Doanh thu/Ca hng

S nm hot ng

180 160 140 120

S ca hng

100 80 60 40 20 0 88% 88.50% 89% 89.50% 90% 90.50% 91% 91.50%

Chi ph hot ng (% doanh thu)

Kinh nghim qu kh
Kt lun:

Nu thc hin mt d n tng t, th cng ty c th k vng nh sau:

Doanh thu k vng nm 1 khong $40 mil. T l tng 5%/nm Sau 10 nm doanh thu s gim Chi ph hot ng khong 90% doanh thu

Kinh nghim qu kh
Ngoi ra, t cc thng tin qu kh chng ta c th xem xt c im ca cc d n vi cc mc doanh thu khc nhau (v tr, nng lc qun l, ) c cc iu chnh ph hp cho d n sp thc hin.

Kinh nghim qu kh
Ngoi ra, c th s dng cc ngun d liu doanh thu/chi ph qu kh d bo bng cc m hnh sau y:

Cc m hnh trung bnh di ng

Cc m hnh san m Cc m hnh phn tch thnh phn chui thi gian Cc m hnh ARIMA (nu cng ty hot ng nhiu nm)

Kho st/kim chng th trng

p dng i vi cc d n mi c c im khc so vi cc d n hin ti ca cng ty. Chng hn,

Cc sn phm/dch v tng t trn mt th trng mi (cha r ln ca th trng); Cc sn phm/dch v mi trn th trng hin ti (cha r nhu cu tim nng v sn phm mi).

Kho st/kim chng th trng Cng ty cn thc hin kho st nh gi s b th trng trc khi u t d n mi. nh gi s b c th t kt qu kh st th trng hoc t kim chng th trng.

Kho st/kim chng th trng

Kho st th trng:

Thit lp bng cu hi Xc nh khch hng mc tiu M ha v nhp s liu vo bng tnh Phn tch s liu Kt qu k vng: C nhu cu hay khng, cao hay thp c im v nhu cu i th cnh tranh Knh phn phi,

Kho st/kim chng th trng

Kho st th trng c th khng cung cp thng tin d bo doanh thu cho cc cng ty mun u t mnh vo mt sn phm/dch v mi. Chnh v th, cc cng ty ny thng kim chng th trng trn cc th trng nh hn trc khi m rng trn mt qui m th trng ln hn.

Kho st/kim chng th trng

Quy trnh thc hin kim chng th trng:

Thc hin cc d n quy m nh cc th trng khc nhau

Thu thp thng tin t cc d n ny X l v phn tch d liu Quy m th trng (s lng, gi c, ) Doanh thu k vng ( lch chun) Mi quan h gia cc hnh ng ca cng ty (v d chi ph qung co) v doanh thu.

Kt qu kim chng:

Kho st/kim chng th trng

V nguyn tc, cc chi ph u t cho cc d n nh dng ny l cc khon chi ph chm
Tuy nhin, khi thm nh chng ta c th a cc chi ph ny vo hng mc t vn thc hin d n hng li ch t l chn thu

Phn tch kch bn

p dng i vi vic a sn phm ra mt th trng m cng ty am hiu rt k, ngoi tr cc yu t bn ngoi m khng ty khng th kim sot. Trong cc trng hp ny, cng ty c th xem xt cc kch bn khc nhau vi cc xc sut khc nhau c th c lng cc gi tr k vng v lch chun cho d n.

Phn tch kch bn

Quy trnh phn tch kch bn:

Xc nh cc yu t quan trng nht cho mi kch bn (khong 3 yu t) Xc nh s kch bn (khong 3 kch bn) c lng doanh thu v chi ph cho mi kch bn Xc nh xc sut cho mi kch bn Tnh gi tr k vng v phng sai ca doanh thu v chi ph

Phn tch kch bn

D bo cc yu t quan trng cho mi kch bn nh th no?

Cc bin kinh t v m: D bo chui thi gian hoc chuyn gia

Cc bin v i th cnh tranh hoc lnh vc kinh doanh: Hiu bit ca cng ty v ngnh t cc bo co phn tch ngnh,

Sai s c lng v ri ro
Ba cch c lng doanh thu v chi ph va nu khng phi lc no cng cho cc c lng hon ton chnh xc. Trong khi mt s ri ro d n c th do sai s d bo, th phn ln ri ro do s khng chc chn thc s v tng lai.

Sai s c lng v ri ro
Ci thin cc k thut c lng c th lm gim sai s d bo nhng khng th loi b s khng chc chn thc s v tng lai. khc phc vn ny, chng ta nn cng thm mt phn b ri ro vo sut chit khu (hoc phn tch m phng).

c lng doanh thu v chi ph vn cha

D ton tng mc u t v k hoch phn k u t

Nhiu hng mc doanh thu v chi ph ca d c th c lng da trn kt qu kho st tnh hnh hot ng ca cc d n tng t thc hin bi cc cng ty khc
Mt s hng mc c th da trn quy nh ca cc c quan chc nng

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