MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: SUBJECT: bATE:

KEVIN ROSE, AsSISTANT SUPERINTENDENT FREDERICKR. IGNAl'OVIrn,

- LAPEER COl\1MUNITY SCHOOLS .

PH.D. - STANFRED CONSULTANT~~

COMPARISON OF PROJECTED AND ACTUAL ENROLLMENTS 8/4/2011

LAPEERCO~TYSCHOOLS COMPARISON OF PROJECTED AND ACTUAL ENROLLMENTS

PURPOSE: Determine and present a summary of the accuracy of projections for the past three years. The projected and actual enrollments for K-12 F1E General Education students were compared for the following school years:
I.

School Year 2008-09 Fall Count: The actual fa112008 enrollments fell between the most likely and low projections, much closer to the low, for the low variability projection set (the 1.0 standard unit).

11.·, -.School Year 2009-10 Fall Count: The actual fa112009 enrollments fell between the most likely and high projections, much closer to the most likely, for the medium. variability projection set (the 1.5 standard unit).

m.
IV.

School Year 2010-11 Fall Count: The actual fa112010 enrollments fell between the most likely and high projections, slightly closer to the high, for the low variability projection set (the 1.0 standard unit). OVER THE THREE YEAR PERIOD 2008-09 to 2010-11: For the three year period the overall best projection was the most likely for the medium variabilityprojection set (the 1.5 standard unit).

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