BTM Consult ApS

Gammel Kongevej 1
DK-1610 Copenhagen V
Phone +45 97 32 52 99
Fax +45 97 32 55 93
per.krogsgaard@navigant.com
birger.madsen@navigant.com
www.navigant.com/btm

InternationalWindEnergyDevelopment
WorldMarketUpdate2011
Forecast20122016

TableofContents
Tables.............................................................................................................................................ii
Figures...........................................................................................................................................iii
AbbreviationsandTechnicalUnits.................................................................................................iv
Preface...........................................................................................................................................v
ExecutiveSummary......................................................................................................................viii
1.Introduction................................................................................................................................1
1.1Methodology.................................................................................................................................1
1.2Sources..........................................................................................................................................1
1.3MajorEventsintheWindIndustry................................................................................................1
2.MarketDevelopmentin2011DemandSide............................................................................12
2.1StatusattheEndof2011............................................................................................................12
2.2TheOffshoreMarketin2011......................................................................................................22
2.3TrendsinEstablishedMarkets....................................................................................................25
2.4TheTop10MarketsintheWorld................................................................................................27
2.5CommercialMWTechnologyintheMarket...............................................................................28
3.SupplySideoftheMarketin2011.............................................................................................30
3.1TheTop10LargestManufacturers.............................................................................................30
3.2TrendsintheCompetitiveMarket..............................................................................................37
4.CustomersintheMarket...........................................................................................................40
4.1ShiftsintheCustomerBase.........................................................................................................40
4.2ChangesObservedintheMarketAftertheFinancialCrisis........................................................42
4.3MarketPresenceofTop15Utilities,IPPsandDevelopers.........................................................43
4.4TargetsandProjectPipelinesofMainPlayers............................................................................44
4.5OtherLargeWindPowerInvestors.............................................................................................46
4.6NewEntrants...............................................................................................................................48

(continued)

BTM Consult ApS. Registered in Denmark, CVR no. 13 27 50 76.

Registered office: Gammel Kongevej 1, DK-1610 Copenhagen V, Denmark
A wholly owned subsidiary of Navigant Consulting (Europe) Ltd

5.MarketForecastsandEstimates................................................................................................49
5.1MarketForecastforDevelopmentupto2016............................................................................51
5.1.1ValueoftheForecastCapacityupto2016..........................................................................63
5.1.2EmergingMarkets................................................................................................................64
5.2MarketForecastforOffshoreDevelopmentupto2016.............................................................65
5.3ExpectationsandPredictionsforDevelopment20172021........................................................67
5.4GeopoliticalIssues:TheUNClimateNegotiationsandEUEnergyPolicy...................................71
5.4.1TheUNClimateNegotiationsandtheKyotoProtocol.........................................................72
5.4.2EuropeanEnergyPolicyandRegulation...............................................................................73
6.PenetrationofWindPowerElectricityandTariffs.....................................................................80
6.1ElectricityProducedbyWindEnergyinSelectedCountries.......................................................80
6.1.1TheContributionfromWindEnergyinaGlobalElectricityContext....................................83
6.2FeedinTariffsinSelectedCountries...........................................................................................85
7.WindTurbineTechnologyTheHydraulicDrivetrain................................................................90
7.1Introduction.................................................................................................................................90
7.2GeneralHydraulicDriveWorkingPrinciples...............................................................................91
7.2.1FundamentalHydraulicKnowledge.....................................................................................91
7.2.2HydraulicDrives....................................................................................................................92
7.2.3VariableDisplacementTechnology......................................................................................93
7.3CurrentStatusofHydraulicDrivetrains.......................................................................................94
7.3.1ChapDrive.............................................................................................................................94
7.3.2MitsubishiPowerSystems(ArtemisIntelligentPower).......................................................95
7.3.3Orbital2(WikovWind)..........................................................................................................96
7.3.4VoithWinDrive.....................................................................................................................98
7.4ComparisionofPresentDrivetrainTechnologies.....................................................................100
7.4.1ConventionalPlanetaryGearbox.......................................................................................101
7.4.2DirectDrive.........................................................................................................................101
7.4.3HybridDrive/MediumSpeedGenerator..........................................................................101
7.5TechnologyComparisonandEvaluation...................................................................................101
7.6HydraulicDriveTechnologyOutlook.........................................................................................103
Appendices.................................................................................................................................104
A:AnnuallyInstalledCapacityandMarketSharesinMajorMarkets(2011)..................................104
B:ProfilesofWindTurbineManufacturers.....................................................................................130
C:ProfilesofMajorSubSuppliers...................................................................................................140
D:ProfilesofWindFarmOwners/Operators/Developers..............................................................146
Index..........................................................................................................................................151