FOCUSED AND QUICK (FAQ) Issue 68

May 8,
2012

Summary
PIIGS

(ECB)


PIIGS
PIIGS
3 (1)

(2)

(3)

* Source: [ThinkMoney] n.d. [image online] Available at:

< http://www.thinkmoney.com/debt/the-euro-debt-crisis-explained-0-4912.htm > [Accessed 29 April 2012]

FAQ ISSUE 68 :

May 8, 2012

1.1 PIIGS
ECB

(Risk Free
Collateral)

1999 PIIGS

5


25 1992
2008
( 1)

5




(European Central Bank : ECB)



(Shock)

1 10

1.
?

2010

(International Monetary Fund:

IMF)
(
PIIGS)
PIIGS

: Volz, 2012

PIIGS 1




PIIGS

17

FAQ ISSUE 68 :

( 2 )
( 3)

Shock
( 2008-2009)
4.3 2009
( 4)
Shock
( 2010)
GDP
107.7 1999-2007 147.8
2010 ( 2)

Shock
1.1.1

GDP
60
3
GDP 1995-1998
100 ( 2)


2 GDP 1995-2010

160

1995-1998

1999-2007

2008

2009

May 8, 2012

2010

4
2009

140
120
100
80

Spain
Portugal
Ireland
Greece
France
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Germany
Finland
Austria
Belgium
Malta
Slovakia
Slovenia

60
40
20
-

:
: OECD

3 GDP

40

-12
1990-1998

1999-2007

2008

2009

2010

-8

-6

-4

-2

:
: European Central Bank, 2010

30
20

(The Council of
the European Union)

10
-

: OECD

-10

1.1.2

|

FAQ ISSUE 68 :

( 1.3)



2007 ( 5)

( 4)

(Bailout)


GDP
2008-2010 ( 2)

May 8, 2012

2007 ( 6)

6 ()

6 ()

: Suarez, 2010

2000

100 2003 ( 7)

5
2005 = 100

7
(Disposable income)

200

: Standard & Poors, 2010

150
100

GDP
13

50
0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

: , 2012

FAQ ISSUE 68 :

1.2


(Real
Exchange Rate: RER)

(
)

(Productivity)

/

2 (Unit Labor Cost) 8

Unit Labor Cost

Unit Labor

May 8, 2012

PIIGS


3

( 9)

9 GDP

15

1995-1998

1999-2007

2008-2011

10
5

8 1

(Unit labor cost)

-5
-10
-15

: IMF

: Roubini, 2011

Cost (
) PIIGS Unit
Labor Cost ()
2

Unit labor cost

1.3 ( Global
Financial Crisis) 2008-2009





2000
3

|

5

FAQ ISSUE 68 :

4

Swap Spreads5

( 10)

PIIGS ( 11)

(
)

10 Swap Spreads 2

: Pundit, 2010

11

30

Moral Hazard
PIIGS

PIIGS

7.8% 2000-2010

25

Spain

20

Greece

15
10
5
0

Italy
Portugal

Ireland

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

:
10 2011
: IMF, 2012

(Vested Interest)

2.
2.1

4

,
,
, 2551.
5
Swap Spreads Swap rate

6
,
, , 9 2555.

May 8, 2012

(Moral Hazard)

FAQ ISSUE 68 :

2.2

Shock
2.5

2.6

3.

2.3

PIIGS






PIIGS

PIIGS

2.4

Shock

May 8, 2012

3 (1)


|

FAQ ISSUE 68 :

Moral Hazard
(2)

(3)

May 8, 2012

Contact authors :

NutthikV@bot.or.th

FAQ ISSUE 68 :
References (in English)

References (in Thai)

,
,

, 2551.
,
,
,
2554.
,

,
2554, 2555.
,
, , 9 2555.

Andrew Filardo, The Impact of the International

Financial Crisis on Asia and the Pacific:
Highlighting Monetary Policy Challenges from a
Negative Asset Price Bubble Perspective, BIS
Working Paper No 356, November 2011.
Brahima Coulibaly, Monetary Policy in Emerging
Market Economies: What Lessons from the
Global Financial Crisis?, International Finance
Discussion Papers, Number 1042, February 2012.
Calafia Beach Pundit, Europe in Better Shape
Than U.S.? DAX vs. S&P 500 Performance,
Seeking Alpha, 29 November 2010.
Carlo Panico, The Causes of the Debt Crisis in
Europe and the Role of Regional Integration,
Political Economy Research Institute, University
of Massachusetts Amherst, Working Paper Series
Number 234, September 2010.
European Central Bank, MFI Statistics 2010: Number
of Financial Institutions in the Euro Area and in
the EU Decreases, Press release, 20 January
2010.
International Monetary Fund, Greece : Staff Report
for the 2009 Article IV Consultation, June 2009.
International Monetary Fund, Italy : Staff Report for
the 2011 Article IV Consultation, July 30 2011.
International Monetary Fund, Portugal : Staff
Report; Public Information Notice on the
Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by
the Executive Director for Portugal, January
2010.
Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, Painful Euro Crisis and
Lessons for the World-Part I, Published on Yale
Global Online Magazine, 16 November 2011.
Javier Suarez, The Spanish Crisis: Background and
Policy Challenges, Paper for
the XXIII Moneda Y
Credito Symposium, 2nd version, December
2010.
Jonathan McMahon, The Irish Banking Crisis: Lesson
Learned, Future Challenges, Address to Mazars
Banking Conference, Central Bank & Financial
Services Authority of Ireland, 26 May 2010.
Marek Belka, Crisis Lessons to Remember for
Europes Policymakers, The IMF Blog by
iMFdirect, Post on 24 February 2010.
Nouriel Roubini, The Eurozone Could Break Up
Over a Five-Year Horizon, Post on Credit
Writedowns, 20 June 2011.
Standard &Poor, Correction in Europes House
Prices May Not Be Over Yet, Research Recap, 1
June 2010.
Ulrich Volz, Lessons of the European Crisis for
Regional Monetary and Financial Integration in
East Asia, ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 347,
Febuary 2012.

May 8, 2012