Power Generation in the New Policies and 450 Scenarios

Assumed investment costs, operation and maintenance costs and efficiencies in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

Please note:
1) Years refer to time of plant order
2) Costs include owner's costs but exclude interest during construction
3) Plant efficiency is gross, LHV (lower heating value). The difference between lower and higher heating value, based on IEA conve
4) Capital costs presented are a weighted average based on deployment for the given scenario. This results in general in decreasin
in some cases, this is offset by the deployment of more expensive resources/sites.
5) To convert to heat rate (Btu per kWh, HHV, sent out basis), use the formula:
Heat rate = 1/(efficiency in %)*3412*a
a=1.05 for coal and 1.1 for gas (converts t
Example:
6) Costs are expressed in US dollars (2010 values)
Exchange rates (2010)
Euro
United Kingdom pound
Australian dollar
Canadian dollar
Chinese yuan
Indian rupee
Russian ruble
Korean won

Quick Link to Sheets

Coal
Gas
CCS
Nuclear
Renewables
Renewables - Learning Rates

(1 US dollar equals:)
0.76
0.65
1.09
1.03
6.81
46.01
30.25
1155.43

encies in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2011

ower and higher heating value, based on IEA conventions, is 5% for coal and 10% for gas.
given scenario. This results in general in decreasing investment costs due to learning and,
Heat rate = 1/(efficiency in %)*3412*a
a=1.05 for coal and 1.1 for gas (converts to HHV)
Coal plant, 38% efficiency
Heat rate=

9428

Steam Coal - SUBCRITICAL

Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Steam Coal - SUPERCRITICAL
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Steam Coal - ULTRASUPERCRITICAL
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
IGCC
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil

Capital costs
($2010 per kW)
2010
2020

O&M Costs
($2010 per kW)
2010

2035

1600
1800
2100
1700
600
1200
1200
1400
1200

1600
1800
2100
1700
600
1200
1200
1400
1200

1600
1800
2100
1700
600
1200
1200
1400
1200

40
45
53
51
21
42
42
44
42

1900
2100
2400
2000
700
1500
1500
1750
1500

1900
2100
2400
2000
700
1500
1500
1750
1500

1900
2100
2400
2000
700
1500
1500
1750
1500

57
63
72
70
28
60
60
63
60

2100
2300
2600
2200
800
1700
1700
2000
1700

2100
2300
2600
2200
800
1700
1700
2000
1700

2100
2300
2600
2200
800
1700
1700
2000
1700

63
69
78
66
32
68
68
70
68

2400
2600
2900
2500
1100
2000
2000
2300
2000

2400
2600
2900
2500
1100
1900
1900
2200
1900

2200
2400
2700
2300
900
1800
1800
2100
1800

84
91
102
88
50
90
90
92
90

NPS Scenario
O&M Costs
($2010 per kW)
2020

2035

Efficiency
(gross, LHV)
2010
2020

2035

Capital costs
($2010 per kW)
2020
2035

40
45
53
51
21
42
42
44
42

40
45
53
51
21
42
42
44
42

39%
39%
39%
39%
37%
34%
37%
35%
39%

39%
39%
39%
39%
37%
34%
37%
35%
39%

39%
39%
39%
39%
37%
34%
37%
35%
39%

1600
1800
2100
1700
600
1200
1200
1400
1200

1600
1800
2100
1700
600
1200
1200
1400
1200

57
63
72
70
28
60
60
63
60

57
63
72
70
28
60
60
63
60

44%
44%
44%
44%
42%
39%
42%
40%
44%

44%
44%
44%
44%
42%
39%
42%
40%
44%

44%
44%
44%
44%
42%
39%
42%
40%
44%

1900
2100
2400
2000
700
1500
1500
1750
1500

1900
2100
2400
2000
700
1500
1500
1750
1500

63
69
78
66
32
68
68
70
68

63
69
78
66
32
68
68
70
68

47%
47%
47%
47%
46%
42%
45%
43%
47%

49%
49%
49%
49%
48%
44%
47%
45%
49%

51%
51%
51%
51%
50%
46%
49%
47%
51%

2100
2300
2600
2200
800
1700
1700
2000
1700

2100
2300
2600
2200
800
1700
1700
2000
1700

84
91
102
88
50
86
86
88
86

77
84
95
81
41
81
81
84
81

48%
48%
48%
48%
47%
43%
46%
44%
48%

50%
50%
50%
50%
49%
45%
48%
46%
50%

52%
52%
52%
52%
51%
47%
50%
48%
52%

2400
2600
2900
2500
1100
1900
1900
2200
1900

2200
2400
2700
2300
900
1800
1800
2100
1800

450 Scenario
O&M Costs
($2010 per kW)
2020
2035

Efficiency
(gross, LHV)
2020
2035

40
45
53
51
21
42
42
44
42

40
45
53
51
21
42
42
44
42

39%
39%
39%
39%
37%
34%
37%
35%
39%

39%
39%
39%
39%
37%
34%
37%
35%
39%

57
63
72
70
28
60
60
63
60

57
63
72
70
28
60
60
63
60

44%
44%
44%
44%
42%
39%
42%
40%
44%

44%
44%
44%
44%
42%
39%
42%
40%
44%

63
69
78
66
32
68
68
70
68

63
69
78
66
32
68
68
70
68

49%
49%
49%
49%
48%
44%
47%
45%
49%

51%
51%
51%
51%
50%
46%
49%
47%
51%

84
91
102
88
50
86
86
88
86

77
84
95
81
41
81
81
84
81

50%
50%
50%
50%
49%
45%
48%
46%
50%

52%
52%
52%
52%
51%
47%
50%
48%
52%

NPS Scenario
Capital costs
($2010 per kW)
2010
2020
CCGT
Europe
900
United States
900
Japan
900
Russia
800
China
550
India
700
Middle East
800
Africa
700
Brazil
700
Gas turbine
Europe
500
United States
500
Japan
500
Russia
450
China
350
India
400
Middle East
450
Africa
400
Brazil
400
CCGT - CHP
Europe
1080
United States
1080
Japan
1080
Russia
960
China
660
India
840
Middle East
960
Africa
840
Brazil
840
Fuel cell (distributed electricity generation)
Europe
6000
United States
6000
Japan
6000
Russia
6000
China
6000
India
6000
Middle East
6000
Africa
6000
Brazil
6000

2035

O&M Costs
($2010 per kW)
2010
2020

2035

900
900
900
800
550
700
800
700
700

900
900
900
800
550
700
800
700
700

23
23
23
28
18
25
28
25
25

23
23
23
28
18
25
28
25
25

23
23
23
28
18
25
28
25
25

500
500
500
450
350
400
450
400
400

500
500
500
450
350
400
450
400
400

20
20
20
23
18
20
23
20
20

20
20
20
23
18
20
23
20
20

20
20
20
23
18
20
23
20
20

1080
1080
1080
960
660
840
960
840
840

1080
1080
1080
960
660
840
960
840
840

32
32
32
38
26
34
38
34
34

32
32
32
38
26
34
38
34
34

32
32
32
38
26
34
38
34
34

5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000

2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500

120
120
120
180
180
180
180
180
180

100
100
100
150
150
150
150
150
150

50
50
50
75
75
75
75
75
75

Efficiency
(gross,
LHV)

450 Scenario
Efficiency
(gross, LHV)
2010
2020

2035

Capital costs
($2010 per kW)
2020
2035

O&M Costs
($2010 per kW)
2020
2035

Efficiency
(gross, LHV)
2020
2035

59%
59%
59%
57%
57%
56%
57%
57%
57%

61%
61%
61%
59%
59%
58%
59%
59%
59%

62%
62%
62%
61%
61%
60%
61%
61%
61%

900
900
900
800
550
700
800
700
700

900
900
900
800
550
700
800
700
700

23
23
23
28
18
25
28
25
25

23
23
23
28
18
25
28
25
25

61%
61%
61%
59%
59%
58%
59%
59%
59%

62%
62%
62%
61%
61%
60%
61%
61%
61%

38%
38%
38%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%
36%

40%
40%
40%
38%
38%
38%
38%
38%
38%

41%
41%
41%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%

500
500
500
450
350
400
450
400
400

500
500
500
450
350
400
450
400
400

20
20
20
23
18
20
23
20
20

20
20
20
23
18
20
23
20
20

40%
40%
40%
38%
38%
38%
38%
38%
38%

41%
41%
41%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%

79%
79%
79%
77%
77%
76%
77%
77%
77%

81%
81%
81%
79%
79%
78%
79%
79%
79%

82%
82%
82%
81%
81%
80%
81%
81%
81%

1080
1080
1080
960
660
840
960
840
840

1080
1080
1080
960
660
840
960
840
840

32
32
32
38
26
34
38
34
34

32
32
32
38
26
34
38
34
34

81%
81%
81%
79%
79%
78%
79%
79%
79%

82%
82%
82%
81%
81%
80%
81%
81%
81%

45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%
45%

52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%

60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%

5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000
5000

2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500
2500

100
100
100
150
150
150
150
150
150

50
50
50
75
75
75
75
75
75

52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%
52%

60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%
60%

Coal + CCS
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Oxyfuel + CCS
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
IGCC + CCS
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
CCGT + CCS
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil

Capital costs
($2010 per kW)
2010
2020

O&M Costs
($2010 per kW)
2010

2035

3420
3780
4100
3600
1500
2700
2700
3240
2700

3420
3780
4100
3600
1500
2700
2700
3240
2700

2700
2900
3260
2800
1500
2300
2300
2590
2300

103
113
123
126
60
108
108
113
108

3680
4000
4300
3850
1700
2980
2980
3500
2980

3680
4000
4300
3850
1700
2980
2980
3500
2980

3000
3200
3500
3100
1700
2600
2600
2800
2600

110
120
129
116
68
119
119
123
119

3480
3770
4210
3630
1800
2900
2900
3340
2900

3480
3770
4210
3630
1800
2760
2760
3340
2760

2900
3100
3400
3000
1600
2500
2500
2670
2500

122
132
147
127
81
131
131
133
131

1620
1620
1620
1440
1000
1260
1440
1260
1260

1620
1620
1620
1440
1000
1260
1440
1260
1260

1350
1350
1350
1250
1000
1150
1250
1010
1150

41
41
41
50
33
44
50
44
44

NPS Scenario
O&M Costs
($2010 per kW)
2020

2035

450 Scenario
Efficiency
(gross, LHV)
2010
2020

2035

Capital costs
($2010 per kW)
2020
2035

O&M Costs
($2010 per kW)
2020

103
113
123
126
60
108
108
113
108

81
87
98
98
60
92
92
91
92

35%
35%
35%
35%
33%
30%
33%
31%
35%

35%
35%
35%
35%
33%
30%
33%
31%
35%

36%
36%
36%
36%
34%
31%
34%
32%
36%

3420
3780
4100
3600
1500
2700
2700
2700
2700

2710
2990
3420
2850
1500
2300
2300
2300
2300

103
113
123
126
60
108
108
95
108

110
120
129
116
68
119
119
123
119

90
96
105
93
68
104
104
98
104

38%
38%
38%
38%
37%
33%
36%
34%
38%

40%
40%
40%
40%
39%
35%
38%
36%
40%

43%
43%
43%
43%
42%
38%
41%
39%
43%

3680
4000
4300
3850
1700
2980
2980
2980
2980

3000
3200
3600
3100
1700
2600
2600
2600
2600

110
120
129
116
68
119
119
104
119

122
132
147
127
81
124
124
133
124

102
109
119
105
72
113
113
107
113

39%
39%
39%
39%
38%
34%
37%
35%
39%

41%
41%
41%
41%
40%
36%
39%
37%
41%

45%
45%
45%
45%
44%
40%
43%
41%
45%

3480
3770
4210
3630
1800
2760
2760
2760
2760

2900
3100
3400
3000
1600
2500
2500
2500
2500

122
132
147
127
81
124
124
110
124

41
41
41
50
33
44
50
44
44

34
34
34
44
33
40
44
35
40

51%
51%
51%
49%
49%
48%
49%
49%
49%

53%
53%
53%
51%
51%
50%
51%
51%
51%

55%
55%
55%
54%
54%
53%
54%
54%
54%

1620
1620
1620
1440
1000
1260
1440
1260
1260

1350
1350
1350
1250
1000
1150
1250
1150
1150

87
94
105
127
59
96
96
96
96

450 Scenario
O&M Costs Efficiency
($2010 per kW)(gross, LHV)
2035
2020
2035
81
90
103
100
60
92
92
81
92

35%
35%
35%
35%
33%
30%
33%
31%
35%

36%
36%
36%
36%
34%
31%
34%
32%
36%

90
96
108
93
68
104
104
91
104

40%
40%
40%
40%
39%
35%
38%
36%
40%

43%
43%
43%
43%
42%
38%
41%
39%
43%

102
109
119
105
72
113
113
100
113

41%
41%
41%
41%
40%
36%
39%
37%
41%

45%
45%
45%
45%
44%
40%
43%
41%
45%

73
78
85
105
52
88
88
88
88

53%
53%
53%
51%
51%
50%
51%
51%
51%

55%
55%
55%
54%
54%
53%
54%
54%
54%

NPS Scenario

Nuclear
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil

Capital costs
($2010 per kW)
2010
2020

2035

4000
4600
4200
3500
2000
2800
3200
3600
3500

4000
4600
4200
3500
2000
2800
3200
3600
3500

4000
4600
4200
3500
2000
2800
3200
3600
3500

O&M Costs
($2010 per kW)
2010
2020
100
104
116
123
70
105
120
120
123

100
104
116
123
70
105
120
120
123

NPS Scenario

O&M Costs
$2010 per kW)
2035
100
104
116
123
70
105
120
120
123

450 Scenario
Efficiency
(gross, LHV)
2010
2020
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%

33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%

2035
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%

Capital costs
($2010 per kW)
2020
2035
4000
4600
4200
3500
2000
2800
3200
3600
3500

4000
4600
4200
3500
2000
2800
3200
3600
3500

O&M Costs
($2010 per kW)
2020
2035
100
104
116
123
70
105
120
120
123

100
104
116
123
70
105
120
120
123

Efficiency
(gross, LHV)
2020
2035
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%

33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%
33%

NPS Scenario
Renewables - regional
details
Note: average figures at
regional level

Biomass Power plant

Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Biogas - DG Industry
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Biomass Cofiring
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Biomass CHP Medium
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Biomass CHP Small
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia

Capital cost
($2010 per kW)

Yearly O&M cost

($2010 per kW)

Efficiency
(power generation %)

Capacity factor
(%)

Construction Time
(years)

Capital cost
($2010 per kW)

2010

2020

2035

2010

2020

2035

2010

2020

2035

2010

2020

2035

2010

2020

2035

2020

2370
2490
2390
2230
2180
2150
2220
2160
2490

2270
2380
2280
2230
2110
2060
2110
2060
2380

2130
2240
2150
2110
2020
1950
1980
1930
2240

83
87
84
78
76
75
78
75
87

79
83
80
78
74
72
74
72
83

75
78
75
74
71
68
69
68
78

35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%

35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%

35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

2260
2370
2270
2160
2100
2050
2100
2050
2370

2810
2730
3280
2320
2200
2170
2700
2340
2730

2850
2840
3080
2270
2610
2080
2200
2230
2840

2600
2720
3420
2570
2480
1970
2450
2110
2720

107
104
125
88
84
82
103
89
104

108
108
117
86
99
79
84
85
108

87
103
101
98
94
75
93
80
103

30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%

30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%

30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2880
2860
3140
2270
2600
2070
2190
2210
2860

590
620
600
560
550
540
550
550
620

570
600
570
540
530
520
530
530
600

530
560
540
520
500
490
500
500
560

23
24
23
21
20
20
21
21
24

22
23
22
20
20
19
20
20
22

21
22
21
20
19
18
19
19
21

37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%

37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%

37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

560
590
570
540
520
510
530
520
590

3670
3740
3890
2920
2840
2800
2800
2800
3740

3660
3950
3840
2830
2740
2700
2700
2700
3950

3390
3720
3610
3560
3430
3300
3300
3300
3720

139
142
148
111
108
106
106
106
142

139
150
146
108
104
103
103
103
150

129
141
137
135
131
125
125
125
141

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

75%
75%
75%
75%
75%
75%
75%
75%
75%

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

3660
3920
3870
2810
2730
2700
2700
2700
3920

5290
5330
5420
4750

5110
5100
5230
4660

4740
4780
4930
4460

201
203
206
181

194
194
199
177

180
182
187
169

65%
65%
65%
65%

65%
65%
65%
65%

65%
65%
65%
65%

60%
60%
60%
60%

65%
65%
65%
65%

70%
70%
70%
70%

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

5090
5360
5210
4630

6/21/201210:50 AM

China
4630
India
4630
Middle East
4630
Africa
4630
Brazil
5330
Biomass - waste incineration - CHP
Europe
7310
United States
8130
Japan
8360
Russia
6910
China
6660
India
6850
Middle East
7530
Africa
7530
Brazil
8130

4510
4450
4450
4450
5100

4590
4480
4480
4480
4780

173
176
176
176
203

168
169
169
169
194

171
170
170
170
182

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

60%
60%
60%
60%
60%

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

4490
4450
4450
4450
5360

7120
7870
7990
6720
7430
7180
7300
7300
7870

7050
7550
7520
6680
7100
7050
6830
6830
7330

278
309
318
262
248
283
283
283
309

270
299
304
255
277
273
273
273
299

252
278
286
245
265
273
273
273
278

50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%

50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%

50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

7120
7830
7950
6690
7410
7180
7300
7300
7830

6/21/201210:50 AM

Geothermal
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Hydropower - large-scale
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil

2400
2080
2300
1980
2550
2070
2080
2120
2080

3610
2030
3340
2490
3550
2000
3450
2880
2030

3210
1830
2110
2490
3400
1910
3350
3530
1830

64
42
46
40
73
41
42
42
42

72
41
67
50
71
40
69
58
41

64
37
42
50
68
38
67
71
37

15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%

15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%

15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%

70%
73%
64%
68%
68%
65%
65%
65%
65%

75%
78%
64%
73%
73%
70%
70%
70%
70%

80%
80%
64%
78%
78%
75%
75%
75%
75%

4.0
4.0
4.5
7.0
4.5
4.5
7.0
7.0
7.0

4.0
4.0
4.5
5.5
4.5
4.5
5.5
5.5
5.5

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

3600
2010
3930
2470
3520
3050
3450
3490
2010

2230
2490
2450
2030
1450
1870
1980
2330
2490

2560
2480
2440
2070
1670
2000
2070
2130
2480

2970
2460
2410
2160
1500
2080
2080
1980
2460

56
62
61
51
33
47
49
58
62

64
62
61
52
42
50
52
53
62

74
62
60
54
38
52
52
50
62

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

26%
33%
24%
43%
38%
37%
25%
50%
54%

26%
33%
24%
43%
38%
35%
25%
50%
54%

26%
33%
24%
43%
38%
35%
25%
50%
54%

4.0
4.0
4.5
7.0
4.5
4.5
7.0
7.0
7.0

4.0
4.0
4.5
5.5
4.5
4.5
5.5
5.5
5.5

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

2850
2480
2440
2070
1680
2040
2070
2970
2480

6/21/201210:50 AM

Hydropower - small-scale
Europe
3900
United States
3870
Japan
3610
Russia
3240
China
1970
India
2980
Middle East
3160
Africa
3130
Brazil
3870
Solar photovoltaics - Large scale
Europe
2900
United States
3730
Japan
3050
Russia
3280
China
2590
India
2600
Middle East
3030
Africa
3230
Brazil
3730
Solar photovoltaics - Buildings
Europe
3880
United States
4470
Japan
3940
Russia
4100
China
3240
India
3180
Middle East
4040
Africa
3910
Brazil
4470

3900
3860
3590
3310
2120
3010
3170
3150
3860

3950
3850
3590
3450
2250
3060
3200
3160
3850

89
77
72
65
39
60
63
63
77

100
77
72
66
42
60
63
63
77

77
77
72
69
45
61
64
63
77

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

30%
30%
30%
40%
40%
30%
30%
50%
50%

30%
30%
30%
40%
40%
30%
30%
50%
50%

30%
30%
30%
40%
40%
30%
30%
50%
50%

4.0
4.0
4.5
7.0
4.5
4.5
7.0
7.0
7.0

4.0
4.0
4.5
5.5
4.5
4.5
5.5
5.5
5.5

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

3860
3860
3590
3310
2120
3150
3170
3920
3860

2260
2420
2180
2130
1760
1870
2190
2140
2420

1720
1800
1660
1480
1360
1420
1670
1630
1800

44
56
46
49
39
39
45
48
56

34
36
33
32
26
28
33
32
36

26
27
25
22
20
21
25
24
27

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

13%
19%
12%
12%
16%
16%
20%
20%
16%

16%
19%
14%
12%
18%
18%
21%
21%
18%

17%
20%
15%
12%
19%
20%
22%
22%
19%

1.5
1.5
2.0
2.5
2.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

1.5
1.5
1.5
2.0
1.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5

2170
2280
2120
2130
1670
1720
2080
2040
2280

2570
2920
2810
2770
2200
2120
2690
2610
2920

2040
2290
2210
2160
1700
1740
2040
1990
2290

58
67
59
61
49
48
61
59
67

39
44
42
42
33
32
40
39
44

31
34
33
32
25
26
31
30
34

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

11%
17%
12%
9%
16%
16%
18%
18%
15%

12%
18%
13%
10%
17%
18%
21%
18%
17%

13%
19%
13%
11%
18%
19%
21%
20%
19%

1.0
1.0
1.0
1.5
1.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5

1.0
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3

1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0

2510
2820
2670
2630
2090
2030
2550
2490
2820

6/21/201210:50 AM

Concentrating solar power

Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Marine
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil

7160
5890
n.a
n.a
5090
4990
5200
5020
5890

4990
4190
n.a
n.a
3660
3530
3680
3560
4190

3750
3280
n.a
n.a
2870
2750
2830
2550
3280

286
236
n.a
n.a
204
200
208
201
236

200
168
n.a
n.a
146
141
147
142
168

139
131
n.a
n.a
115
110
113
102
131

40%
40%
n.a
n.a
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%

40%
40%
n.a
n.a
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%

40%
40%
n.a
n.a
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%

41%
45%
n.a
n.a
39%
39%
39%
34%
44%

41%
45%
n.a
n.a
44%
39%
39%
44%
46%

41%
45%
n.a
n.a
50%
39%
39%
50%
50%

2.0
2.0
n.a
n.a
2.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

2.0
2.0
n.a
n.a
2.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8

2.0
2.0
n.a
n.a
2.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

4660
3870
n.a
n.a
3370
3250
3330
3270
3870

6720
6830
6600
7200
6950
6950
6530
6950
6830

5570
5720
5430
5930
6080
5600
5380
5700
5720

3580
2860
2870
3130
3240
3190
2830
3000
2860

202
205
198
216
222
220
196
209
205

167
172
163
178
182
181
161
171
172

107
86
86
94
97
96
85
90
86

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

41%
48%
48%
40%
45%
46%
40%
40%
40%

41%
48%
48%
40%
45%
46%
40%
40%
40%

41%
48%
48%
40%
45%
46%
40%
40%
40%

4.0
4.0
4.5
7.0
4.5
4.5
7.0
7.0
7.0

4.0
4.0
4.3
5.5
4.3
4.3
5.5
5.5
5.5

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

5380
5800
5430
5930
6080
5600
5380
5700
5910

6/21/201210:50 AM

Wind onshore
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil
Wind offshore
Europe
United States
Japan
Russia
China
India
Middle East
Africa
Brazil

1690
1850
1720
1540
1480
1450
1510
1470
1850

1630
1720
1660
1430
1530
1430
1400
1370
1720

1620
1670
1610
1400
1440
1410
1420
1370
1670

25
28
26
23
22
22
23
22
28

24
26
25
21
23
22
21
21
26

24
25
24
21
22
21
21
21
25

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

24%
26%
26%
25%
26%
22%
27%
25%
26%

24%
28%
26%
27%
26%
23%
27%
25%
27%

24%
29%
26%
28%
26%
23%
27%
25%
28%

1.5
1.5
1.8
2.5
1.8
1.8
2.5
2.5
2.5

1.5
1.5
1.5
2.0
1.5
1.5
2.0
2.0
2.0

1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5

1680
1760
1680
1420
1530
1410
1390
1360
1760

3410
2780
3120
2990
2980
2560
2940
2680
2530

2370
2410
2120
1860
2040
1800
1910
1810
2530

1900
1890
1780
1630
1710
1680
1710
1620
1890

102
83
94
90
89
77
88
80
76

71
76
63
56
61
54
57
54
76

57
57
53
49
51
50
51
49
57

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

35%
36%
38%
38%
38%
39%
40%
39%
40%

37%
39%
38%
38%
38%
39%
40%
39%
40%

40%
40%
39%
38%
38%
39%
40%
39%
40%

2.5
2.5
3.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

2.5
2.5
2.5
3.5
2.5
2.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

2290
2250
2070
1810
2010
1740
1830
1750
2450

6/21/201210:50 AM

450 Scenario
Capital cost
($2010 per kW)

Yearly O&M cost

($2010 per kW)

Efficiency
(power generation %)

Capacity factor
(%)

Construction Time
(years)

2035

2020

2035

2020

2035

2020

2035

2020

2035

2100
2200
2110
2030
1970
1910
1940
1900
2200

80
80
80
80
70
70
70
70
80

73
77
74
71
69
67
68
66
77

35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%

35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

2620
2670
3300
2510
2430
2030
2430
2410
2670

110
110
120
90
100
80
80
80
110

88
101
101
95
92
77
92
92
101

30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%

30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%
30%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

520
550
530
510
490
480
490
490
550

20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20

20
21
20
19
18
18
18
18
21

37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%

37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%
37%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

72%
72%
72%
72%
72%
72%
72%
72%
72%

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

3370
3650
3600
3450
3400
3300
3300
3300
3650

140
150
150
110
100
103
103
103
150

128
139
137
131
129
125
125
125
139

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

75%
75%
75%
75%
75%
75%
75%
75%
75%

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

4690
5020
4840
4680

190
200
200
180

178
191
184
178

65%
65%
65%
65%

65%
65%
65%
65%

65%
65%
65%
65%

70%
70%
70%
70%

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

6/21/201210:50 AM

4540
4480
4480
4480
5020

170
169
169
169
200

169
170
170
170
191

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

70%
70%
70%
70%
70%

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

6930
7400
7390
6610
6970
7050
6830
6830
7250

270
300
300
250
280
273
273
273
300

250
276
281
241
260
273
273
273
276

50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%

50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%
65%

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

6/21/201210:50 AM

2990
1970
3580
2510
3510
3000
3350
3490
1970

70
40
80
50
70
40
69
70
40

60
39
72
50
70
81
67
70
39

15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%

15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%
15%

75%
78%
64%
73%
73%
70%
70%
70%
70%

80%
80%
64%
78%
78%
75%
75%
75%
75%

4.0
4.0
4.5
5.5
4.5
4.5
5.5
5.5
5.5

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

2930
2460
2410
2160
1490
3350
2080
1990
2460

70
60
60
50
40
50
50
70
60

89
61
60
54
37
84
52
50
61

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

26%
33%
24%
43%
38%
35%
25%
50%
54%

26%
33%
24%
43%
38%
35%
25%
50%
54%

4.0
4.0
4.5
5.5
4.5
4.5
5.5
5.5
5.5

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

6/21/201210:50 AM

3970
3850
3580
3450
2250
3880
3190
3160
3850

80
80
70
70
40
60
60
80
80

75
77
72
69
45
78
64
63
77

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

30%
30%
30%
40%
40%
30%
30%
50%
50%

30%
30%
30%
40%
40%
30%
30%
50%
50%

4.0
4.0
4.5
5.5
4.5
4.5
5.5
5.5
5.5

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

1570
1530
1530
1480
1140
1220
1410
1380
1530

30
30
30
32
30
30
30
30
30

23
23
23
22
17
18
21
21
23

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

16%
19%
14%
12%
18%
18%
21%
21%
18%

17%
20%
15%
12%
19%
20%
22%
22%
19%

1.5
1.5
1.5
2.0
1.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0

1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5

1830
1950
1890
1830
1430
1500
1730
1690
1950

40
40
40
40
30
30
40
40
40

28
29
28
27
21
22
26
25
29

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

12%
18%
13%
10%
17%
18%
21%
18%
17%

13%
19%
13%
11%
18%
19%
21%
20%
19%

1.0
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.0
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3

1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0

6/21/201210:50 AM

3210
2760
n.a
n.a
2470
1930
2170
2340
2760

190
150
n.a
n.a
130
130
130
130
150

128
110
n.a
n.a
99
77
87
93
110

40%
40%
n.a
n.a
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%

40%
40%
n.a
n.a
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%

41%
45%
n.a
n.a
44%
39%
39%
44%
46%

41%
45%
n.a
n.a
50%
39%
39%
50%
50%

2.0
2.0
n.a
n.a
2.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8

2.0
2.0
n.a
n.a
2.0
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7

3030
2960
2640
2910
3140
3090
2660
3430
2960

160
180
163
178
182
181
161
171
180

91
89
79
87
94
93
80
103
89

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

41%
48%
48%
40%
45%
46%
40%
40%
40%

41%
48%
48%
40%
45%
46%
40%
40%
40%

4.0
4.0
4.3
5.5
4.3
4.3
5.5
5.5
5.5

4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0

6/21/201210:50 AM

1590
1650
1530
1420
1400
1350
1420
1390
1650

30
30
30
20
20
20
20
20
30

24
25
23
21
21
20
21
21
25

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

24%
28%
26%
27%
26%
23%
27%
25%
27%

24%
29%
26%
28%
26%
23%
27%
25%
28%

1.5
1.5
1.5
2.0
1.5
1.5
2.0
2.0
2.0

1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5

1750
1700
1590
1600
1680
1660
1680
1590
1700

70
70
60
50
60
50
50
50
70

53
51
48
48
50
50
50
48
51

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

37%
39%
38%
38%
38%
39%
40%
39%
40%

40%
40%
39%
38%
38%
39%
40%
39%
40%

2.5
2.5
2.5
3.5
2.5
2.5
3.5
3.5
3.5

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

6/21/201210:50 AM

Technological learning
Renewables Category

Plant specification

Biomass

Large-scale unit
Medium-scale CHP
Small-scale CHP
Biogas
Waste incineration
Cofiring
Geothermal Elec Only
Geothermal CHP
Large-scale unit
Small-scale unit
Large-scale
Buildings

assumed future learning rates

2010 to 2035

Geothermal
Hydropower
Photovoltaic
Concentrating Solar Power
Marine
Wind energy

Onshore
Offshore

5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
1%
1%
17%
17%
10%
14%
5%
9%