PHN PHI NH THC

Trong phn phi chun, bin ngu nhin l bin s lin tc (cn nng, chiu cao,
tr s ng mu..), cn trong phn phi nh thc (Binomial distribution) bin ngu
nhin l bin ri rc (discrete) hoc gi l bin nh phn, kt cc ch c 2 tnh hung
xy ra nh: sng/cht, c bnh/khng bnh.. s phn b nh th no.
V d. Th tung 1 ng xu, ng nhin mi ln tung c kt cc c lp, c
ngha l kt cc ra Sp (S), Nga (N) ln sau khng ty thuc vo kt qu S,N ca
ln tung trc, nh vy xc sut p(N)=1/2 v xc sut p (S)=1/2. Nu ta tung 4 ln
v mun ra mt N, th ta c th d on xc sut c 2 ln N l cao nht, sau
l c 1N hoc 3 N v cui cng l c 4 ln tung u ra N hoc khng c mt N
no c xc sut thp nht.
Nh vy lm sao tnh xc sut c 0,1,2,3,4 mt nga (N) sau 4 ln tung?
Cch tnh 1:
Ta bit xc sut thc ca mt nga l 1/2 (p=0,5) v mt sp cng 1/2 (q=0,5)
Gi k l s ln c mt nga, tnh xc sut vi k=0,1,2,3,4:

SNNS
SNSN

k=

SSSN

SSNN

NNNS

SSNS

NSSN

NNSN

SNSS

NSNS

NSNN

SSSS

NSSS

NNSS

SNNN

NNNN

Biu 11.1 Cc tnh hung xy ra sau 4 ln tung (n=4)

k=0: xc sut khng (k=0) c mt N no l: SSSS= q.q.q.q (qui tc nhn xc
sut) = 0,5x0,5x 0,5x 0,5= 0,5 4 = 0,0625
k=1: c 4 tnh hung c 1 mt N P (k=1) = 4. 0,5 4= 0,25
k=2: c 6 tnh hung c 1 mt N P (k=2) = 6. 0,5 4= 0,375
k=3: 4 tnh hung c 3 mt N

P (k=3) =4. 0,54= 0,25

k=4: ch c 1 tnh hung duy nht

P (k=4) = 0,54 =0,0625

Cch tnh 2:
Dng nh thc Newton:
TS Nguyen Ngoc Rang; Email: rangbvag@yahoo.com; Website: bvag.com.vn; trang:1

(p+q)4= p4 +4 p3q + 6p2q2 + 4pq3+q4

(0,5+0,5)4= 0,54 +4x0,54 + 6x0,54 + 4x0,54 +0,54
k=0 tng ng s hng th 1: 0,54
k=1 tng ng s hng th 2: 4x0,54
k=2 .. 3: 6x0,54
k=3 .. 4: 4x0,54
k=4 .. 5: 0,54
By gi ta gi X (k=0,1,2) l bin ngu nhin trn trc honh v p l tn s xc
sut c mt nga trn trc tung v v biu phn phi (xem biu 11.2)

Biu 11.2 Phn phi nh thc vi n=4

11.1 Hm phn phi nh thc:
Tng qut ha hm phn phi nh thc c pht biu nh sau:
Mt th nghim vi n ln th c lp
Gi p l xc sut thnh cng (v d. ra mt nga)
Th xc sut ca k ln th nghim thnh cng l:
P(k,n, p) Cnkpk (1 p)nk

n
k

n!
n!n k !

trong k=0,1,3..,n.
(T hp n chp k)

Nu n=12, dng cng thc tnh:

12!
(0,5)12 0,000244
12! (12! )
12!
P(k 1;12;0;5)
(0,5)11 0,00292
12! (11! )

P(k 0;12;0;5)

12!
(0,5)10 0,01612
12! (10! )
.

P(k 2;12;0;5)

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P(k 6;12;0;5)

12!
(0,5)6 0,2255
12! (6! )

.
12!
P(k 12;12;0;5)
(0,5)12 0,000244
12! (12! )
Cch tnh 3.
Vo phn mm R vi lnh n gin: dbinom (k,n,p)
V d: tnh xc sut vi k=6, n=12 v p=0,5:
>dbinom (6,12,0.5)

th P= 0,2255

Biu 11.3 Phn phi nh thc vi n=12

V khi n cng tng dn, phn phi nh thc c dng phn phi chun vi tr s trung
bnh = np v phng sai 2= np(1-p) theo nh lut gii hn trung tm (central limit
theorem).

Biu 11.4 Phn phi nh thc vi n=100

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Nhn vo biu 4 vi n ln (n=100) chng ta thy phn phi nh thc c phn phi
chun vi tr trung binh l =np=100 x 0,5=50 v phng sai 2= 100 x 0,5 x 0,5= 25
hoc lch chun =5.
11.2 ng dng phn phi nh thc:
V d 1. Bit t l suy dinh dng tr em di 5 tui l 20%. Nu chng ta khm
10 tr di 5 tui. Tnh xc sut c 2 em b suy dinh dng.
Nh vy k=2, n=10 v p=0,20
Xc sut c 2 tr b suy dinh dng.

P(k 2;10;0;2)

10!
8
(0,2)2 0,8 0,30
10! (8! )

hoc tnh trong R:

>dbinom (2,10,0.2)=0,30
Kt qu: Xc sut c 2 em b suy dinh dng l 30%
V d 2. T l suy dinh dng tr em 20% (nh v d trn).Tnh xc sut c t hn
2 em b suy dinh dng.
Nh vy tnh tng xc sut ca: P (k=0)+P(k=1)+ P(k=2)
Hoc dng hm nh thc tch ly (cummulative binomial probability):
tnh P (X 2) :
> pbinom(2,10,0.2)= 0,67
Ti liu tham kho:
1. Nguyn Vn Tun. Hm phn phi nh phn, trong Phn tch s liu v to biu
bng R. Nh xut bn KH v KT, Thnh ph HCM 2007, tr: 47-50.
2. Moore D.S. and McCabe G.P. Discrete random variables, in Introduction to the
Practice of Statistics, 3rd Edition. W.H. Freeman and Company 1999 USA, pp: 313317.

TS Nguyen Ngoc Rang; Email: rangbvag@yahoo.com; Website: bvag.com.vn; trang:4