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Istanbul Talk Tokarev
Istanbul Talk Tokarev
11 July, 2012
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW Processes
Let be some a random variable supported on non-negative integers with pmf {pi } (reproduction distribution) Z (n) Let Z0 = 1 and Zn+1 = i=0 i, n , where i, n are iid like and also independent of the past The information about the process is encoded in probability generating function
f (s) =
i=0
pi si .
Recall that E = f (1) := , E( 1) = f (1) and the functional iterates fn (s), n = 1, 2, . . . are the probability generating functions of the process at time n, while f (s)k , k -integer is a pgf of a process started with k individuals.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW Processes
Let be some a random variable supported on non-negative integers with pmf {pi } (reproduction distribution) Z (n) Let Z0 = 1 and Zn+1 = i=0 i, n , where i, n are iid like and also independent of the past The information about the process is encoded in probability generating function
f (s) =
i=0
pi si .
Recall that E = f (1) := , E( 1) = f (1) and the functional iterates fn (s), n = 1, 2, . . . are the probability generating functions of the process at time n, while f (s)k , k -integer is a pgf of a process started with k individuals.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW Processes
Let be some a random variable supported on non-negative integers with pmf {pi } (reproduction distribution) Z (n) Let Z0 = 1 and Zn+1 = i=0 i, n , where i, n are iid like and also independent of the past The information about the process is encoded in probability generating function
f (s) =
i=0
pi si .
Recall that E = f (1) := , E( 1) = f (1) and the functional iterates fn (s), n = 1, 2, . . . are the probability generating functions of the process at time n, while f (s)k , k -integer is a pgf of a process started with k individuals.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW Processes
Let be some a random variable supported on non-negative integers with pmf {pi } (reproduction distribution) Z (n) Let Z0 = 1 and Zn+1 = i=0 i, n , where i, n are iid like and also independent of the past The information about the process is encoded in probability generating function
f (s) =
i=0
pi si .
Recall that E = f (1) := , E( 1) = f (1) and the functional iterates fn (s), n = 1, 2, . . . are the probability generating functions of the process at time n, while f (s)k , k -integer is a pgf of a process started with k individuals.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW Processes
Let be some a random variable supported on non-negative integers with pmf {pi } (reproduction distribution) Z (n) Let Z0 = 1 and Zn+1 = i=0 i, n , where i, n are iid like and also independent of the past The information about the process is encoded in probability generating function
f (s) =
i=0
pi si .
Recall that E = f (1) := , E( 1) = f (1) and the functional iterates fn (s), n = 1, 2, . . . are the probability generating functions of the process at time n, while f (s)k , k -integer is a pgf of a process started with k individuals.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW Processes
Let be some a random variable supported on non-negative integers with pmf {pi } (reproduction distribution) Z (n) Let Z0 = 1 and Zn+1 = i=0 i, n , where i, n are iid like and also independent of the past The information about the process is encoded in probability generating function
f (s) =
i=0
pi si .
Recall that E = f (1) := , E( 1) = f (1) and the functional iterates fn (s), n = 1, 2, . . . are the probability generating functions of the process at time n, while f (s)k , k -integer is a pgf of a process started with k individuals.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW processes are broadly divided into three types Subcritical ( < 1), critical ( = 1) - extinction certain and supercritical ( > 1) - extinction uncertain Since the iterated function fn (s) is the PGF of Z (n) in particular fn (0) is the Pr of extinction after n steps and taking the limit as n , gives the Pr of eventual extinction
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW processes are broadly divided into three types Subcritical ( < 1), critical ( = 1) - extinction certain and supercritical ( > 1) - extinction uncertain Since the iterated function fn (s) is the PGF of Z (n) in particular fn (0) is the Pr of extinction after n steps and taking the limit as n , gives the Pr of eventual extinction
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW processes are broadly divided into three types Subcritical ( < 1), critical ( = 1) - extinction certain and supercritical ( > 1) - extinction uncertain Since the iterated function fn (s) is the PGF of Z (n) in particular fn (0) is the Pr of extinction after n steps and taking the limit as n , gives the Pr of eventual extinction
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW processes are broadly divided into three types Subcritical ( < 1), critical ( = 1) - extinction certain and supercritical ( > 1) - extinction uncertain Since the iterated function fn (s) is the PGF of Z (n) in particular fn (0) is the Pr of extinction after n steps and taking the limit as n , gives the Pr of eventual extinction
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW processes are broadly divided into three types Subcritical ( < 1), critical ( = 1) - extinction certain and supercritical ( > 1) - extinction uncertain Since the iterated function fn (s) is the PGF of Z (n) in particular fn (0) is the Pr of extinction after n steps and taking the limit as n , gives the Pr of eventual extinction
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW processes are broadly divided into three types Subcritical ( < 1), critical ( = 1) - extinction certain and supercritical ( > 1) - extinction uncertain Since the iterated function fn (s) is the PGF of Z (n) in particular fn (0) is the Pr of extinction after n steps and taking the limit as n , gives the Pr of eventual extinction
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
0.8
0.25
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.05
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Can we then deduce a similar statement about the corresponding {pi } and {qi }? Specically if = 0, will it follow that {pi } and {qi } are the same? Must be true, otherwise two distinct PGFsintersect in innitely many points! Or is it? Easy to construct two PGFs that share artibrarily many iterates:
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Can we then deduce a similar statement about the corresponding {pi } and {qi }? Specically if = 0, will it follow that {pi } and {qi } are the same? Must be true, otherwise two distinct PGFsintersect in innitely many points! Or is it? Easy to construct two PGFs that share artibrarily many iterates:
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Can we then deduce a similar statement about the corresponding {pi } and {qi }? Specically if = 0, will it follow that {pi } and {qi } are the same? Must be true, otherwise two distinct PGFsintersect in innitely many points! Or is it? Easy to construct two PGFs that share artibrarily many iterates:
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Can we then deduce a similar statement about the corresponding {pi } and {qi }? Specically if = 0, will it follow that {pi } and {qi } are the same? Must be true, otherwise two distinct PGFsintersect in innitely many points! Or is it? Easy to construct two PGFs that share artibrarily many iterates:
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Can we then deduce a similar statement about the corresponding {pi } and {qi }? Specically if = 0, will it follow that {pi } and {qi } are the same? Must be true, otherwise two distinct PGFsintersect in innitely many points! Or is it? Easy to construct two PGFs that share artibrarily many iterates:
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Can we then deduce a similar statement about the corresponding {pi } and {qi }? Specically if = 0, will it follow that {pi } and {qi } are the same? Must be true, otherwise two distinct PGFsintersect in innitely many points! Or is it? Easy to construct two PGFs that share artibrarily many iterates:
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Supercritical case
Recall that in supercritical case the iterates accumulate to a point inside the unit interval Hence by Identity principle, we cannot have zeroes accumulating to a point inside the region of analyticity. More generally Theorem For any sequence of extinction probabilities {fik (0)} of a mortal supercritical BGW process with Z (0) = r , there is a unique non-lattice offspring distribution {pi }. Indeed if f (s) a PGF of a lattice RV on N, let g(s) = f (s1/ ), then the BGW process corresponding to f and starting with Z0 = will have the same extinction dist as that corresponding to g.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Supercritical case
Recall that in supercritical case the iterates accumulate to a point inside the unit interval Hence by Identity principle, we cannot have zeroes accumulating to a point inside the region of analyticity. More generally Theorem For any sequence of extinction probabilities {fik (0)} of a mortal supercritical BGW process with Z (0) = r , there is a unique non-lattice offspring distribution {pi }. Indeed if f (s) a PGF of a lattice RV on N, let g(s) = f (s1/ ), then the BGW process corresponding to f and starting with Z0 = will have the same extinction dist as that corresponding to g.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Supercritical case
Recall that in supercritical case the iterates accumulate to a point inside the unit interval Hence by Identity principle, we cannot have zeroes accumulating to a point inside the region of analyticity. More generally Theorem For any sequence of extinction probabilities {fik (0)} of a mortal supercritical BGW process with Z (0) = r , there is a unique non-lattice offspring distribution {pi }. Indeed if f (s) a PGF of a lattice RV on N, let g(s) = f (s1/ ), then the BGW process corresponding to f and starting with Z0 = will have the same extinction dist as that corresponding to g.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Supercritical case
Recall that in supercritical case the iterates accumulate to a point inside the unit interval Hence by Identity principle, we cannot have zeroes accumulating to a point inside the region of analyticity. More generally Theorem For any sequence of extinction probabilities {fik (0)} of a mortal supercritical BGW process with Z (0) = r , there is a unique non-lattice offspring distribution {pi }. Indeed if f (s) a PGF of a lattice RV on N, let g(s) = f (s1/ ), then the BGW process corresponding to f and starting with Z0 = will have the same extinction dist as that corresponding to g.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Supercritical case
Recall that in supercritical case the iterates accumulate to a point inside the unit interval Hence by Identity principle, we cannot have zeroes accumulating to a point inside the region of analyticity. More generally Theorem For any sequence of extinction probabilities {fik (0)} of a mortal supercritical BGW process with Z (0) = r , there is a unique non-lattice offspring distribution {pi }. Indeed if f (s) a PGF of a lattice RV on N, let g(s) = f (s1/ ), then the BGW process corresponding to f and starting with Z0 = will have the same extinction dist as that corresponding to g.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
So if the PGF is analytic at accumulation point of the iterates at 0 (call it q), the question is settled For the case q = 1, what if all moments exist? Then all factorial moments exist, ie left-sided derivatives at 1 exist But existence of moment, factorial moments and left-sided derivative does not imply that the PGF is analytic at 1, eg let pi = c2 k , c =1/ 2 k , easy to check that all moments cpk 2 k exist but the PGF f (s) = pi si cannot be continued beyond 1 since (1 + a)k 2 k = for all a > 0.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
So if the PGF is analytic at accumulation point of the iterates at 0 (call it q), the question is settled For the case q = 1, what if all moments exist? Then all factorial moments exist, ie left-sided derivatives at 1 exist But existence of moment, factorial moments and left-sided derivative does not imply that the PGF is analytic at 1, eg let pi = c2 k , c =1/ 2 k , easy to check that all moments cpk 2 k exist but the PGF f (s) = pi si cannot be continued beyond 1 since (1 + a)k 2 k = for all a > 0.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
So if the PGF is analytic at accumulation point of the iterates at 0 (call it q), the question is settled For the case q = 1, what if all moments exist? Then all factorial moments exist, ie left-sided derivatives at 1 exist But existence of moment, factorial moments and left-sided derivative does not imply that the PGF is analytic at 1, eg let pi = c2 k , c =1/ 2 k , easy to check that all moments cpk 2 k exist but the PGF f (s) = pi si cannot be continued beyond 1 since (1 + a)k 2 k = for all a > 0.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
So if the PGF is analytic at accumulation point of the iterates at 0 (call it q), the question is settled For the case q = 1, what if all moments exist? Then all factorial moments exist, ie left-sided derivatives at 1 exist But existence of moment, factorial moments and left-sided derivative does not imply that the PGF is analytic at 1, eg let pi = c2 k , c =1/ 2 k , easy to check that all moments cpk 2 k exist but the PGF f (s) = pi si cannot be continued beyond 1 since (1 + a)k 2 k = for all a > 0.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
including 0, = Span{
i=0
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
including 0, = Span{
i=0
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
including 0, = Span{
i=0
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
(1 q r ) = or equivalently ET = .
i=j
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
(1 q r ) = or equivalently ET = .
i=j
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
(1 q r ) = or equivalently ET = .
i=j
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
(1 |ai |)
i=1
B(z) =
i=1
Daniel Tokarev
ai an z . |an | 1 an z
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
(1 |ai |)
i=1
B(z) =
i=1
Daniel Tokarev
ai an z . |an | 1 an z
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
(1 |ai |)
i=1
B(z) =
i=1
Daniel Tokarev
ai an z . |an | 1 an z
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
g(s) would have Taylor coefcients = o(i 2 ) and since f (s) = g(s) + E(s)B(s), and We need to nd E(s) that would make the coefcient of the product E(s)B(s) decay faster than i 2 The trouble is that we dont understand the pattern of signs in bi s - real Blaschke products are not well-understood
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
g(s) would have Taylor coefcients = o(i 2 ) and since f (s) = g(s) + E(s)B(s), and We need to nd E(s) that would make the coefcient of the product E(s)B(s) decay faster than i 2 The trouble is that we dont understand the pattern of signs in bi s - real Blaschke products are not well-understood
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
g(s) would have Taylor coefcients = o(i 2 ) and since f (s) = g(s) + E(s)B(s), and We need to nd E(s) that would make the coefcient of the product E(s)B(s) decay faster than i 2 The trouble is that we dont understand the pattern of signs in bi s - real Blaschke products are not well-understood
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
g(s) would have Taylor coefcients = o(i 2 ) and since f (s) = g(s) + E(s)B(s), and We need to nd E(s) that would make the coefcient of the product E(s)B(s) decay faster than i 2 The trouble is that we dont understand the pattern of signs in bi s - real Blaschke products are not well-understood
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
g(s) would have Taylor coefcients = o(i 2 ) and since f (s) = g(s) + E(s)B(s), and We need to nd E(s) that would make the coefcient of the product E(s)B(s) decay faster than i 2 The trouble is that we dont understand the pattern of signs in bi s - real Blaschke products are not well-understood
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
g(s) would have Taylor coefcients = o(i 2 ) and since f (s) = g(s) + E(s)B(s), and We need to nd E(s) that would make the coefcient of the product E(s)B(s) decay faster than i 2 The trouble is that we dont understand the pattern of signs in bi s - real Blaschke products are not well-understood
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
Athreya, K. B. and Ney, P.E. (1972) Branching Processes. Springer-Verlag. Feller, W. (1971) An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Volume II, 2nd Ed., John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Feller, W. (1968) On Muntz Theorem and Completely Monotone Functions. The American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 75, No. 4 (Apr., 1968), pp. 342-350 R. Remmert, Classical topics in complex function theory, Volume 172, GTM, Springer, 1998. L.Schwartz, tude des Sommes DExponentielles, Hermann, Paris, 1959. A.R. Siegel, On the Mntz-Scsz Theorem for C[0, 1], Proc. Amer. Math, Soc. 36 (1972), 161-166.
Daniel Tokarev
BGW Processes and their Basic Properties Problem: From Extinction to Reproduction Towards a Counter-Example
I. E. Verbitskii. Taylor coefcients and LP-moduli of continuity of Blaschke products. Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov Leningradskogo Otdeleniya Matematicheskogo Instituta im. V. A. Steklova AN SSSR, Vol. 107, pp. 27-35, 1982.
Daniel Tokarev