INDIA AND BIMSTEC: AN ANALYSIS OF TRADE PERFORMANCE& PROSPECTS

INDIAS

A Dissertation submitted in the partial fulfillment for the degree of M.Phil in Commerce (Applied Business Economics)

Under the supervision of: Dr. Swami Prasad Saxena D/o Applied Business Economics, Faculty of Commerce

Submitted by: Sonam Bhadauriya (082561)

DAYALBAGH EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTE DAYALBAGH, AGRA-282110 2009

DAYALBAGH EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTE (Deemed university) DAYALBAGH AGRA-282005(INDIA)

Dated

CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the present dissertation entitled INDIA AND BIMSTEC: AN ANAlySIS of INDIAS TrADE PErforMANCE AND ProSPECTS by Sonam Bhadauriya is her original work. She has worked under my guidance for the required period. This dissertation fulfills the requirement of the ordinance relating to M.Phil. (Commerce) degree of this university and it does not form the basis for the award of any other degree or diploma from any other university or institution. No part of this research work has ever published by any other university or institution for any purpose whatsoever.

Head of the Department Prof. S.P. Kaushik Deptt. of Applied Business Economics F/o Commerce Dean Prof. Pramod Kumar F/o Commerce

Supervisor Dr. Swami Prasad Saxena, Reader Deptt. of Applied Business Economics F/o Commerce

DECLARATION BY THE STUDENT

Dated

This is to certify that the present dissertation entitled INDIA AND BIMSTEC: AN ANAlySIS of INDIAS TrADE PErforMANCE AND ProSPECTS is my original work. This dissertation fulfills the requirement of the ordinance relating to M.Phil. (Commerce) degree of this institute and it does not form the basis for the award of any other degree or diploma from any other university or institution.

No part of this research work has ever published by any other university or institution for any purpose whatsoever.

Sonam Bhadauriya

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Before we get into depth of the things, I would like to pray to God, his grace & blessing gave me strength to complete this work successfully. I lean my head in the lotus feet of my parents Shri S.C. Bhadauriya (Adv.) and Smt. Prabha Bhadauriya who laid the foundation stone of the present work by inspiring me to go for higher studies. I want to express my feelings of gratitude to Dr. Swami Prasad Saxena, Department of Applied Business Economics for his keen interest, constant encouragement, sympathetic attitude and parental advice at every step that enabled me to face and encounter all the difficulties that came in my way to reach this stage. It is difficult for me to find words to express my deep gratitude to Prof. S.P. Kaushik, Head of the department and Prof. Pramod Kumar, Dean, Faculty of Commerce for sparing their valuable time for their interest in the present work. I am heartly thankful to my intimate friend Ms. Hina Agrawal for her helpful attitude. Words are unable to express my feelings towards my loving elder sisters Ms. Shikha, Ms. Shiva, Dr. Preeti, Ms.Shandhya, Ms. Deepika and my loving younger brother Mr. Shashank for their wishes and love. This work would have not been possible in execution without their interest, constant encouragement and timely advice. At last, but not least, I am thankful all members of the university for every possible help.

Sonam Bhadauriya

PREFACE
BIMSTEC is fast becoming a significant trade bloc in Asia-Pacific. BIMSTECs intraregional trade is significantly higher than many economic groupings in Asia-Pacific region except perhaps East Asia Economic Grouping (EAEG) and ASEAN. Intra-regional trade is fairly high among BIMSTEC countries even in absence of any preferential tariff arrangements. One of the conclusions of this paper is that if there is some more PTA and FTA will be negotiated and come into force in BIMSTEC, intra-regional trade will grow much faster and hope to catch ASEAN level. Therefore, there should be comprehensive programme to liberalize and eliminate non-tariff barriers in tandem with the liberalization of tariffs. Success of PTA and FTA depends on the liberalization of NTBs and every member should prepare a comprehensive plan how to minimize it. There is potential for cooperation in trade in goods and services, investment and other areas. Since 1991, the Government of India has been pursuing a programme of structural reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting reliance on market mechanisms. Thats why the present study is focused on Indo-BIMSTEC trade relations after 1991. This study has been divided into five chapters. A brief note on the features, priority sectors and prospects of BIMSTEC is presented in the first chapter. This chapter further chalks out the basic framework of this study consisting of statement of the problem, objectives, research methodology and limitations of the study. In the second chapter, specific studies conducted on BIMSTEC nations covering wide area of foreign trade like foreign collaborations, mutual trade, technology, international competency and countries bilateral foreign trade nature & trend etc. are presented.

The third chapter deals with various aspects on Intra-BIMSTEC trade relation. By and large, it includes the total trade trend and balance of payments situation among all BIMSTEC nations. Attempts have been made to analyze the bilateral trade of India with all other BIMSTEC countries in view of the economic cooperation in the fourth chapter. It has also been made an effort to analyze the impact of signing agreements under BIMSTEC on IndoBIMSTEC trade performance. Chapter five has made an attempt to draw the problems that are being realized in the contemporary situation. Moreover, the challenges and prospects for the development of trade and improving bilateral trade relations among the BIMSTEC countries are discussed in this chapter. This chapter identifies the scope and some areas to improve the bilateral trade between India & other BIMSTEC nations. Finally, this chapter provides the summary and conclusion of the study followed by the policy recommendations towards improving the trade structure as well as the trade relations of India with other BIMSTEC nations.

CONTENTS
Page No.

CHAPTER -1

INTRODUCTION
SECTION-1 1.1 Introduction to BIMSTEC 1.2 BIMSTEC: A Journey towards Regional Integration 1.3 BIMSTEC: Building Bridges between South and South East Asia 1.4 BIMSTEC Priority Sectors 1.5 BIMSTEC: An Emerging Economic Bloc 1.6 Major Features 1.7 Prospects of BIMSTEC 1.8 BIMSTEC Free Trade Area Framework Agreement SECTION-2 2.1 Statement of Problem 2.2 Objectives of the Study 2.3 Hypothesis 2.4 Research Methodology 2.5 Limitations of the Study. CONCLUDING REMARKS REFERENCES

1.1-1.18
1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.14 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.18

CHAPTER -2

PRESENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE

PRESENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE CONCLUDING REMARKS REFERENCES

2.1-2.12
2.1 2.10 2.11

CHAPTER -3

TRADE PERFORMANCE OF BIMSTEC

3.1-3.6

NATIONS
3.1 ANALYSIS OF INTRA-BIMSTEC TRADE PERFORMANCE OF BIMSTEC NATIONS 3.2 IMPACT OF BIMSTEC ON BIMSTEC NATIONS TOTAL TRADE PERFORMANCE CONCLUDING REMARKS 3.4 3.6 3.1

CHAPTER -4

INDIAS TRADE WITH BIMSTEC COUNTRIES

4.1 REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF INDO-BIMSTEC TRADE RELATIONS 4.2 IMPACT OF BIMSTEC ON INDO-BIMSTEC TRADE PERFORMANCE CONCLUDING REMARKS

4.1-4.15
4.1 4.3 4.15

CHAPTER -5

CONCLUSIONS, FINDINGS AND SUGGESTIONS

5.1 RESULTS OF INTRA-BIMSTEC TRADE ANALYSIS 5.2 RESULTS OF INDO-BIMSTEC TRADE ANALYSIS 5.3 PROSPECTS OF BIMSTEC 5.4 SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE ACTIONS FOR BETTER TRADE RELATIONS AMONG ALL BIMSTEC COUNTRIES 5.5 MAJOR POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS 5.6 WHAT A NEW BIMSTEC SHOULD DO? 5.7 SCOPE FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

5.1-5.7
5.1 5.1 5.3

5.4 5.6 5.6 5.7

ANNEXURES
BIBLIOGRAPHY TOTAL INTRA BIMSTEC TRADE OF BIMSTEC COUNTRIES FROM 1991 TO 2008 INDIAS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008 THAILANDS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008

i-xvii
i ii iv vi

SRI LANKAS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008 BANGLADESHS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008 NEPALS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH xii xiv xvi BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008 MYANMARS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008 BHUTANS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008 x viii

LIST OF TABLES
Page No. Table 1.1 Table 3.1 SECTOR WISE PROJECTS IN BIMSTEC (AS ON 20072008) CORRELATION MATRIX: 1 SHOWING INTRA-BIMSTEC EXPORT IMPORT OF BIMSTEC NATIONS WITH EACH OTHER FROM 1991-2008 Table 3.2 CORRELATION MATRIX: 2 SHOWING INTRA-BIMSTEC TOTAL TRADE & TRADE BALANCE OF BIMSTEC NATIONS WITH EACH OTHER FROM 1991-2008 Table 3.3 Table 3.4 DESCRIPTION OF 5-POINT RANKING SCALE ANALYSIS OF CORRELATION MATRIX: 1 SHOWING INTRA-BIMSTEC Table 3.5 EXPORT IMPORT OF BIMSTEC 3.2 NATIONS WITH EACH OTHER FROM 1991-2008 ANALYSIS OF CORRELATION MATRIX: 2 SHOWING INTRA-BIMSTEC TOTAL TRADE & TRADE BALANCE OF BIMSTEC NATIONS WITH EACH OTHER FROM 19912008 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 1.7

Table 3.6 Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Table 4.3 Table 4.4 Table 4.5 Table 4.6 Table 4.7 Table 4.8 Table 4.9 Table 4.10 Table 4.11 Table 4.12 Table 4.13

THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR TOTAL TRADE PERFORMANCE OF BIMSTEC NATIONS VALUE OF b FOR BIMSTEC COUNTRIES TOTAL TRADE & TRADE BALANCE INDIA-THAILAND TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-THAILAND INDIA-SRI LANKA TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-SRILANKA INDIA-BANGLADESH TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-BANGLADESH INDIA-NEPAL TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-NEPAL INDIA-MYANMAR TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-MYANMAR INDIA-BHUTAN TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-BHUTANS

3.5 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14

LIST OF FIGURES

Page No. Figure 4.1 Figure 4.2 Figure 4.3 Figure 4.4 Figure 4.5 Figure 4.6 INDIA-THAILAND TRADE RELATIONS INDIA-SRI LANKA TRADE RELATIONS INDIA-BANGLADESH TRADE RELATIONS INDIA-NEPAL TRADE RELATIONS INDIA-MYANMAR TRADE RELATIONS INDIA-BHUTAN TRADE RELATIONS 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.11 4.13

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
BIMSTEC Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-sectoral Technical & Economic Corporation
FTA SAARC GoE WG GDP SAPTA SAFTA EAEG LDCs APTA RTA WTO ILFTA PTA FDI

Free Trade Area South Asian Association Regional Corporation Group of Expert Working Group Gross Domestic Production South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement South Asian Free Trade Area East Asia Economic Grouping Least Developed Country Asian Preferential Trade Agreement Regional Trading Agreements World Trade Organisation Indo-Lanka Free Trade Agreement Preferential Trade Area Foreign Direct Investment

CHAPTER-1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter has divided into two sections. Section 1 pertains to (i) Introduction to BIMSTEC (ii) BIMSTEC: A Journey towards Regional Integration (iii) BIMSTEC: Building Bridges between South and South East Asia (iv) BIMSTEC Priority Sectors(v) BIMSTEC: An Emerging Economic Bloc (vi) Major Features (vii) Prospects of BIMSTEC (viii) BIMSTEC Free Trade Area Framework Agreement and section 2 pertains to (i) Statement of Problem (ii)Objectives of the Study (iii) Hypothesis (iv) Research Methodology and (v) Limitations of the Study.

SECTION-1 1.1 INTRODUCTION TO BIMSTEC

The Bay of Bengal is a bay that forms the north-eastern part of the Indian Ocean. It resembles a triangle in shape and bordered by India and Sri Lanka to the West, Bangladesh and the Indian state of West Bengal to the North, and Myanmar, Thailand and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands to the East. Major countries situated around the Bay of Bengal are Sri Lanka, India, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. In 1990s these countries decide to get engaged in a regional corporation with a view to achieve larger economies of scale in production, attain specialization, increase competitiveness, diversify export basket and make use of their underutilized economic potential in terms of human, technological and natural resources with less possibilities of backsliding. In 1997 the countries came together to develop a common understanding on several regional issues and formed a new sub-regional grouping named Bangladesh-IndiaSri Lanka-Thailand-Economic Cooperation (BIST-EC).1 The idea of setting up a sub-regional co-operation block in the Bay of Bengal basin was first mooted in Bangkok, known as the Bangkok Declaration, by Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Thailand. On June 6, 1997, Bangladesh India - Sri Lanka - Thailand Economic Cooperation (BIST-EC) came in force. These countries were chosen because of their proximity and direct access to the Bay of Bengal. The purpose of this regional grouping was to provide trade and technological cooperation among its members in the

areas of trade and investment, tourism, transport and communication, technology, energy and fisheries. Later, at the special Ministerial meeting convened in Bangkok on December 22, 1997, Myanmar was admitted as a member of the grouping and BIST-EC was renamed as BIMSTEC (Bangladesh India Myanmar - Sri Lanka Thailand Economic Cooperation). Bhutan and Nepal were added as new members in 2004. By signing the Framework Agreement to establish a FTA in February 2004 and through the Summit Declaration on July31, 2004, BIMSTEC received further momentum in launching the process of deeper integration in the region. The sub-regional grouping is now renamed as Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).2 BIMSTEC was formed with the idea of imparting greater economic cooperation among the member nations in the area of technology, transport and communications, energy, tourism, agriculture, fisheries and human resources development. In addition to the sectoral cooperation, BIMSTEC also wanted to strengthen cooperation in the areas of trade and investment. As a fusion of two regions, namely, South and Southeast Asia, BIMSTEC aims to develop a network of complementarities, facilitating greater economic cooperation. To achieve this goal, BIMSTEC started with six areas of cooperation, such as Energy, Fisheries, Technology, Trade and Investment, Transport and Communication and Tourism. In the First Summit held at Bangkok in July 2004, the BIMSTEC leaders agreed to explore expansion of cooperation into areas like Protection of Biodiversity, Environment, Biotechnology, Weather and Climate Research and Natural Disaster Management. It is thus evident that the agenda for cooperation is quite elaborate and comprehensive.3

1.2 BIMSTEC: A JOURNEY TOWARDS REGIONAL INTEGRATION

Historically, all BIMSTEC countries were linked with each other for their trade through land and sea routes. Going down to the memory lane, one can see that land and sea routes between Arab and China ran through this region, which was possibly among the richest part of the world built on free trade till the Portuguese arrived on the scene. It is a

well-known fact that these countries had common history, culture and commercial ties with each other over centuries. In the ancient times, Indias trade linkage with these countries through sea route was among the best in the world. Famous silk route between India and China was the main artery of economic activity of this region, which India, of late, had taken initiative to revive its past glory to rejuvenate economic landscape of this region. The formation of BIMSTEC can be attributed to two things. One is the failure of SAARC to form a vibrant regional forum for trade and economic cooperation. Secondly, ongoing process of liberalization in South Asian economies is desperate to discover new markets in the ASEAN region as a substitute of SAARC, whose scope is limited due to noneconomic factor that is unlikely to change in the near future. There is another factor, which may be cited for the formation of this bloc is the Thailands desire to establish strong foothold on the Indian subcontinent because of increasing competition it has been facing in the ASEAN markets. Though BIMSTEC comes into existence very recently, its formation can be traced back till mid-1960s, when both India and Sri Lanka were invited to join ASEAN but was rejected by both the countries. In 1981, Sri Lanka made an unsuccessful attempt to join ASEAN, and India and Pakistan obtained Dialogue Partner status in 1993. The approach of South Asian countries to establish link and enhance economic cooperation shows their intension to strengthen economic relations with the ASEAN countries. BIMSTEC may be used as conduit for South Asian countries to establish and develop a good relationship with the ASEAN countries. Keeping this objective in mind, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh and Thailand requested UNESCAP to undertake a study on the practicability of the formation of regional forum among themselves, which culminated with a document on 1997 titled BIMSTEC Development Programme: Overview and Sectoral Cooperation. The Report identifies sectoral cooperation in areas viz. technology, transport and communications, energy, tourism, agriculture, fisheries, and human resource development. On the basis of the findings of the Report, a trans-South Asian regional forum was established in June 1997 with the objective of strengthening cooperation in areas of trade and investment among others. Initially it had 4 members viz. Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Thailand. First Ministerial Meeting was held in Bangkok in December 1997, when it got expanded with Myanmar entering the group. Nepal was given an observer status in 1999,

but now both Nepal and Bhutan have become full-fledged members along with two South East Asian nations. Every country of this bloc is keen to have more dialogues and to upgrade it to the Ministerial level. So far six Ministerial meetings have taken place, at Bangkok in December 1997, at Dhaka in December 1998, at New Delhi in July 2000, at Yangon in December 2001, at Colombo in December 2002 and at New Delhi in August 2006. Right from the first meeting, trade and industry ministers have been emphasizing on setting up of a free trade area in this region. In order to explore the possibility of free trade among its members, Ministers in their Third Meeting in Yangon in February 2001, set up a Group of Expert (GoE) with India as the Chair country to work out the details of a timebound programme in this regard. The GoE held two meetings and has recommended a negative list approach towards achieving this objective. Another decision was to set up a BIMSTEC Secretariat in Thailand. Since the moratorium on the expansion of membership ended in 2002, the meeting decided that criteria to be evolved for the expansion of membership. The year 2004 had been declared the Visit BIMSTEC Year for which expert group on tourism had been asked to make a detailed plan for the success of the event at its meeting in February 2003. In tandem with the Governments initiative, private sector has also taken much interest to expedite the process of integration, which include, establishing Chambers of Commerce and Federation of Processed Food Industries, exclusively for the region. BIMSTEC member countries are also contemplating the formation of BIMSTEC Economic Forum in line with the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, whose basic objective will be the formation of independent academic and business groups to have regular interactions with the government officials. In order to make these groups active, there should be independent funds both for research institutions and academic groups similar in line with APEC and IOR-ARC, so that they can conduct independent studies estimating the gains from economic cooperation of this region. This should be seriously thought of since there is not much enthusiasm from the private sector about the possible gains from the economic cooperation of this region so far.4

1.3 BIMSTEC: BUILDING BRIDGES BETWEEN SOUTH AND SOUTH EAST ASIA
BIMSTEC is a unique initiative in the sense its membership consists of nations from both South and Southeast Asian regions. The first level of convergence in consolidation of liberalization benefits is expected out of this initiatives understanding that both SAARC and ASEAN are at different levels of development in general. BIMSTEC has a potential to increase the trade among member countries by taking advantage of their geographical location in the region of the Bay of Bengal and the Eastern coast of the Indian Ocean. Discussions have already been held with regard to building a Trans-Asian Highway linking the five countries and also setting up a BIMSTEC Airline connecting the capitals and important cities of the member countries. This will ensure that benefits from cooperation are achieved much faster. BIMSTEC received a major boost with the signing of wide ranging agreements on certain critical areas. Understandably, much of the emphasis has been on the promotion of economic cooperation while downplaying the politico-strategic dimensions. Apart from endorsing the Framework Agreement on Free Trade Area, BIMSTEC members also signed agreement on counter-terrorism. BIMSTEC truly upholds the spirit of Asian regionalism as it integrates countries from different sub regions and market forces have been given importance to drive the agreements and initiatives in different subsectors providing due importance to economically disturbing as well as sensitive issues such as cross border terrorism and transitional crime.

1.4 BIMSTEC PRIORITY SECTORS

The uniqueness of BIMSTEC is in multi-sectoral approach compared to other Asian blocs. BIMSTEC has thirteen priority sectors cover all areas of cooperation. Six priority sectors of cooperation were identified at the 2nd Ministerial Meeting in Dhaka on 19 November 1998.

They include the followings: 1. Trade and Investment, led by Bangladesh 2. Transport and Communication, led by India 3. Energy, led by Myanmar 4. Tourism, led by India 5. Technology, led by Sri Lanka 6. Fisheries, led by Thailand After the 8th Ministerial Meeting in Dhaka on 18-19 December 2005, a number of new areas of cooperation emerged. The number of priority sectors of cooperation increased from 6 to 13. The 7 new sectors were discussed in the 1st BIMSTEC Summit and there has been various activities to enhance those co-operations ever since. The sectors are as follows, 7. Agriculture, led by Myanmar 8. Public Health, led by Thailand 9. Poverty Alleviation, led by Nepal 10. Counter-Terrorism and Transnational Crime, led by India 11. Environment and Natural Disaster Management, led by India 12. Culture, led by Bhutan 13. People to People contact, led by Thailand

TABLE 1.1: SECTOR WISE PROJECTS IN BIMSTEC (AS ON 2007-2008)

Sectors Trade and Investment a. Processed Food b. Trade & Investment Facilitation - Banking Arrangement - Standards and Conformity Project Names 1. Establishment of Free Trade Area(Working Groups Proposal) 2. Establishment Associations(WG) of Federation of Processed Food

3. Trade Facilitation in the BIMST-EC Sub- region (WG) 4. Establishment of BIMST-EC Account Trade (Thai Proposal) 5. Seminar on BIMST-EC Regulations, Conformity Assessment (Thai Proposal) 1. Visit BIMST-EC Year (WG) 2. Establishment of Centre(Thai Proposal) BIMST-EC Tourism Standards &

Tourism

Cooperation

3. Feasibility Study on the Promotions of Religious Circuit in BIMST-EC (Thai Proposal) 4. Training Program on Information Technology in Tourism (Thai Proposal) 5. BIMST-EC Tourism Master Plan (Thai Proposal) 1. Energy Infrastructure Development Project (Natural Gas) (WG) 2. Demonstration Project for Small & Medium Scale Industries using Biomass Gasifier System (WG) 3. Training Program on Renewable Energy Technologies and their application (WG) 4. Strengthening Educational Infrastructure through the Use of Renewable Energy Technologies (WG) 1. Database on traditional knowledge on food & function foods (WG)

Energy - Natural Gas - Renewable Energy

Technology

- Agro-based Technology - Information Technology

2. Low Cost Irrigation Project 3. Collaborative Work on Policy & Development of Protocols of Genetically Modified Food (WG) 4. Technology Exchange Program (Seed Techno, MicroIrrigation System, Agro Machineries/tools) WG 5. Training Programme (Detection of Antibiotic Residues/Food Toxins, Oceanography, Aqua Culture, Certified Reference material for Foods & Analytical Services, Herbal Drug Evaluation, Post Harvest Management Of Fruits, Vegetables, and Fish) (WG) 6. BIMST-EC Website (WG) 7. School Net Programme (WG) 1. Directory on BIMST-EC Fishery Organizations (Thai Proposal) 2. Directory of law and regulations on fisheries of BIMST-EC (Thai Proposal) 3. Fisheries Training Program (Thai Proposal) 4. Exchange of Experts Program (Thai Proposal) 5. Joint Survey of Migratory Fish Stock in Indian Ocean (Thai Proposal) 1. Feasibility Study in Short-Sea Shipping Development (Thai Proposal) 2. Preparation of BIMST-EC Framework Agreement on Multimodal Transport (Thai Proposal) 3. Detailed Design of Kanchanaburi Three pagoda Pass Railway line

Fishery

Transport & Communication

Source: http://www.bimstec.org/project_3.html

1.5 BIMSTEC: AN EMERGING ECONOMIC BLOC

There exist several regional cooperation groupings that could develop regional mechanism for trade and investment cooperation. BIMSTEC brings the five members from the SAARC and two members from the ASEAN. BIMSTEC, in other words, links SAARC with ASEAN and through which it proposed pan-Asian economic community. Japan is very much in the forefront of most of the regionalisms in Asia. In one hand, Japan has very close links with ASEAN, with which the country is negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and in other, it is playing a pivotal role in bringing all Asian nations together. BIMSTECs success is likely to come from its vast US$ 750 billion economy and 1.32 billion population resource. BIMSTEC economies are growing at a faster pace than that of some other predominant regional economic groupings; BIMST-EC has witnessed an average 4.65 percent growth rate in GDP and 2.89 percent in GDP per capita in 2001, even a decade back these countries had far lower rates of growth.5 Therefore, this type of integration would go a long way towards promoting economic growth of countries, individually and collectively. BIMSTEC has identified six sectors for cooperation, viz., trade and investment, technology, transport and communication, energy, tourism and fisheries. The First Summit in July 2004 after the expansion of membership to Nepal and Bhutan and signing of Framework Agreement on BIMSTEC FTA in February 2004, has given a new momentum for the evolution of the grouping. A number of initiatives towards intra-regional trade liberalization between individual member countries of BIMSTEC under bilateral and regional trade agreements have been undertaken in the past, viz., India-Sri Lanka FTA, India-Thailand FTA, ASEAN FTA in the case of Thailand and Myanmar, SAPTA/SAFTA and Bangkok Agreement (India, Sri Lanka, China, Bangladesh, etc.). Indias Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation with ASEAN at the 10+1 Summit held in October 2003, and the Mekong Ganga Cooperation in which India, Thailand and Myanmar are cooperating are all indicators of closer trade interactions. The formation of FTA in BIMSTEC is desirable and

economically viable in the light of the modest progress in the trade liberalization under the above agreements. Fast-track trade liberalization in the coming years under the umbrella of BIMSTEC is envisioned by some studies. In BIMSTEC, the size of intra-regional trade is small at present due to several barriers in the past, yet there is enormous scope for progress because most of the trade potential is untapped so far and there are low incidences of conflicts among its members. This is true in the case of investment pattern in the region. Therefore for mutual benefit, the BIMSTEC members increased interaction in the trade and investment patterns with Japan, an advanced country in the Asian region, is highly desirable. Nonetheless, trade and investment cooperation between BIMSTEC and Japan will certainly help overcome the economic stagnations of the South and Southeast Asia.

1.6 MAJOR FEATURES

The main feature of BIMSTEC countries is that they all possess a relatively low per capita income level and all of them are characterized by unemployment, low level technology, and thus low level productivity. Today, BIMSTEC shares one fourth of the world poor. It is not easy to think of another region of the world, which can surpass BIMSTEC in terms of resource endowments - natural and otherwise. Notwithstanding its vast advantages of resource endowments, in terms of per capita income, BIMSTEC, as a whole, is still running far behind the middle-income world in terms of economic wellbeing. Economic disparity across BIMSTEC is very much visible. For instance, people of BIMSTEC earn much less than what a national from the rest of Asia earns. In terms of social development indicators, BIMSTECs performance happens to be poor and static (HDI 2003 ranking: Thailand 73, India 127, Myanmar 129, Bhutan 134, Nepal 136, and Bangladesh 139). An important feature of this grouping is that currently all the members (except Sri Lanka) are connected by land, providing a stronger potential for greater

connectivity among them. All the member countries of BIMSTEC are developing countries. They posses low per capita income, low level of technology and good natural resources endowment.

1.7 PROSPECTS OF BIMSTEC

BIMSTECs success is likely to come from its vast US$ 750 billion economy, where all the member countries possess a huge market potentiality with a population size of 1.32 billion. Individually, each of the BIMSTEC countries possesses slower pace of growth but as a whole BIMSTEC economies are growing at a faster pace than that of some other predominant regional economic groupings. BIMSTEC is fast becoming a significant trade bloc in Asia- Pacific. BIMSTECs intraregional trade is significantly higher than many economic groupings in Asia-Pacific region except perhaps EAEG and ASEAN. Intra-regional trade is fairly high among BIMSTEC countries even in absence of any preferential tariff arrangements BIMSTEC was originally formed in 1997 to promote regional economic cooperation in the areas of trade and investment, transport and communication, technology, energy, tourism, agriculture, fisheries and human resource development. The emergence of regional trading blocs has been one of the major developments in the international relation in recent years. The main purpose of the regional trading blocs is to reduce trade barriers and to promote trade and investment. Now-a-days, many countries in the world belong to at least one or more regional trading blocs. Moreover, rapid globalization has accelerated the growth of regional trading blocs based on proximity to ensure economic efficiency through larger markets, increased competition, and access to foreign investment and technology.6

1.8 BIMSTEC FREE TRADE AREA FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT

In February 2004, the members established a Framework Agreement for a Free Trade Area (FTA), which covers liberalization, promotion and facilitation of trade in goods,

services and investments, as well as engaging in broader economic cooperation. Thus, BIMSTEC goes beyond trade. The BIMSTEC countries currently have around one-fifth of world population, of whom about half live under abject poverty. BIMSTEC Free Trade Area (FTA) has been established in July 2006 with aiming to attain deeper integration of the region. The intraregional trade and investment are negligible despite tremendous potential for market and efficiency-seeking investment in the market. The negotiations on BIMSTEC FTA, the link between South and Southeast Asia, were initiated during late nineties. While Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Thailand became part of this grouping in 1997, Nepal and Bhutan joined it in February 2004. The first summit of BIMSTEC was held in Bangkok in 2004. It was decided by the members that BIMSTEC would cover not only trade in goods but also trade in services, investment issues, and cooperation in certain sectors (technology, transportation and communication, energy, tourism, and fisheries), so that the members can enjoy the benefit of deeper collaboration.7 The BIMSTEC countries include both developing countries and LDCs and therefore, they are characterized by higher tariff barriers on their imports, vis--vis their developed counterparts. It was expected that while on the one hand the preferential treatment would allow the countries to gain enhanced excess in each others market; the enabling clause provision would provide them the requisite safeguard to protect the sensitive domestic sectors on the other. Moreover apart from the tariff barriers, it was expected that the trade facilitation measures would significantly lower the level of transaction cost, which currently put a downward pressure on the intra-regional trade volume. For instance, the level of trade transaction cost in South Asia is considerably high thereby affecting the regional trade volume.8 However, the integration exercise was not an easy one, due to heterogeneity in the members and their development concerns.9 The Indian initiatives have received strong support from Thailand several times in this regard.10 It was decided during negotiation that while liberalization of merchandise tariff would be initiated in June 2006; the accords on

trade in services and investment promotion would be launched from July 2007. It was also decided that the LDC members would be given more time to reform their tariff schedules. One interesting feature of BIMSTEC is that the members are already linked with each other through several sub-regional preferential arrangements (and also overland, barring Sri Lanka). For instance, the South Asian countries are part of SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area), and the Indo-Lanka FTA has been operational for the last couple of years. India also provides preferential treatment to exports coming from Bhutan and Nepal. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are currently part APTA. All the seven BIMSTEC members have agreed to set up a Free Trade Area (FTA) by July 2007. Negotiations on FTA regarding services and investment have begun in January, 2007. During the last two decades, regional trading agreements (RTAs) have gained increased prominence. Repeated failures of multilateral negotiations, especially at various ministerial meetings of WTO, has lead to an increase in the number of RTAs. Also, increased internationalization of markets (i.e. globalization) and the fear of losing out to other inefficient producers have put pressure on individual country to become part of an RTA. Around 220 RTAs were notified at the WTO till 2006. Most of the developing countries are now a member of one or more RTAs. Compared to South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), BIMSTEC FTA seems to be more promising. A deeper economic integration process with in SAARC sometime suffers because of political tension among some of its members. Such things are less likely to happen in case of BIMSTEC. It is believed that negotiation under BIMSTEC umbrella will be easier than under SAFTA because all the BIMSTEC members are purely guided by economic interests rather than by political interests.11 The objectives of this Agreement are to: a) Strengthen and enhance economic, trade and investment cooperation among the parties; b) Progressively liberalize and promote trade in goods and services, create a transparent, liberal and facilitative investment regime;

c) Explore new areas and develop appropriate measures for closure cooperation among the parties; d) Facilitate the ore effective economic integration of the least developed countries in the region, and bridge the development gap among the parties.

SECTION-2 2.1 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM

Since 1991, the Government of India has been pursuing a programme of structural reforms aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting reliance on market mechanisms. BIMSTEC is one of many regional trade agreements that India has signed up to. BIMSTEC is a sub-regional grouping combining some geographically contiguous South Asian and ASEAN countries around the Bay of Bengal. India has a free trade agreement with Sri Lanka under ILFTA (Indo-Lanka Free trade Agreement). India has also given preferential treatment for a large number of commodities/lines to Bangladesh (being a Least Developed Country) under SAFTA. India has also given preferential treatment to a large number of agricultural commodities and rough wood imported from Myanmar. It was expected that the establishment of PTA/FTA (Preferential Trade Area/Free Trade Area) among BIMSTEC will lead to Indias preferential tariff arrangement (i) with Thailand for all commodities and (ii) with Bangladesh and Myanmar for select commodities. India is a member of BIMSTEC since its establishment. In view of above need was felt to find out, whether signing free trade agreements under BIMSTEC has any impact on Indias trade performance or not. The study had also aim to explore the various opportunities and prospects for strengthening cooperation and integration in trade between India and other BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, the problem entitled INDIA AND BIMSTEC: An Analysis of Indias Trade Performance and Prospects was selected for the study.

2.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

Present study had been aim at analysis of Indias trade performance with special reference to BIMSTEC countries. The study had been carried out with keeping in mind the following general and specific objectives: General Objectives: 1. Study of policy of BIMSTEC & related Treaties. 2. Analysis of trade performance of BIMSTEC nations due to regional blocking. Specific Objectives: 3. Analyze the impact of trade agreements under BIMSTEC in improving Indias Trade with other BIMSTEC countries. 4. Identify the scope and areas of improvement in Indo-BIMSTEC Trade Relations.

2.3 HYPOTHESIS
To verify the significance of changes, the researcher tested the following Null hypothesis during the course of present study to make study the more accurate & to make the findings generalize. Ho -1 Ho -2 Ho -3 Ho -4 Ho -5 By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on Trade performance of BIMSTEC countries. (3.1) By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India-Thailand trade performance. (4.1) By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India-Sri Lanka trade performance. (4.2) By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India-Nepal trade performance. (4.3) By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India-Bangladesh trade performance. (4.4)

Ho -6 Ho -7

By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India-Myanmar trade performance. (4.5) By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India-Bhutan trade performance. (4.6)

2.4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

A combination of descriptive and explorative research design has been employed in course of this study. The present study is based on the time series data pertaining to the period 1991 to 2008. The values of export and import are in US dollars to remove effect of changes in the exchange rate. Based on the secondary data, the study has made an attempt to derive a firm view with regard to the established objectives of this study. Data and information with regard to Intra-BIMSTEC trade & Indo-BIMSTEC trade have been collected from the Research papers, Books, Periodicals, Journals and Internet websites etc. Data collected were analyzed by using appropriate statistical tools such as Average, Correlation, Regression, Tests of Significance etc. The analyzed data was interpreted accordingly and inferences were drawn.

2.5 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

Every empirical work has to pass through certain limitations, so, this study has also its own limitations. Few unavoidable limitations of the present study are presented below: 1. Data collected for the present study is completely secondary in nature. In such a case, the study carries all the limitations inherent with the secondary data. 2. While computing the data for the purpose of analysis, some adjustments have been made even in the export-import data collected. Because the data were collected from various sources. 3. The study was limited only to the direction of trade not to the composition of trade.

4. The study has focused the Indias foreign trade activities after the year of liberalization i.e. 1991. Therefore, trade statistics have been used and analyzed accordingly. 5. However, the nature of this study has been primarily a desktop study. This study has to carry out within a specified limited time period, it could not incorporate the views and opinions of the business communities and civil society on the sphere of Indo-BIMSTEC trade related issues. In spite of above limitations, researcher has carried out her research work with full devotion.

CONCLUDING REMARKS
BIMSTEC comprises of two member countries of ASEAN and five member countries of SAARC. Thus, BIMSTEC acts as a land bridge connecting ASEAN and SAARC. The success of BIMSTEC will definitely contribute and complement to the success of both ASEAN and SAARC and vice versa. All members of the group have identified six major areas to strengthen economic cooperation and have also assigned one lead country for each area. Bangladesh has been given responsibility to take care of investment. Technology is given to Sri Lanka. India is leading transport and communication sector. Energy is given to Myanmar. Tourism is again to India, and finally Thailand is leading fishery sector.

REFERENCES
1. Biswajit Nag And Debdeep De, Asian Integration Process and BIMSTEC, CSIRD Discussion
Paper #35, October 2007

2. Pratip Kumar Datta and Pritam Datta, Role of Japan in the Technological Development of
BIMSTEC: Issues and Opportunities for Cooperation, CSIRD Discussion Paper #21, January 2007

3. Mizan R. Khan and Mahfuzul Haque, BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Tourism and

Environment: Bangladesh Perspective, CSIRD Discussion Paper #27, May 2007

4. Swapan K. Bhattacharya, Does BIMSTEC-Japan Economic Cooperation Promote IntraRegional Trade? The Case for Free Trade Arrangement, CSIRD Discussion Paper #23, February 2007

5. De, P. and Ghosh, B. (2004), Deepening Cooperation in BIMST-EC: A Case for Transport
Integration, BIISS Journal, Vol. 25, No.2

6. Maung Aung and Min Min Than, BIMSTEC- Japan Cooperation in International Trade:
Myanmar Perspective, CSIRD Discussion Paper #33, September 2007

7. Debashis Chakraborty, Trade Performance and Integration Experience of BIMSTEC: A

Review of Issues, CSIRD Discussion Paper #30, June 2007

8. Nisha Taneja , Indias Exports to Pakistan: Transaction Cost Analysis, Economic and
Political Weekly, pp. 96-99, January 13-19, 2007

9. Rahul Sen and Mukul G. Asher, BIMSTEC Japan Economic Partnership: Opportunities and
Challenges, CSIRD Discussion Paper #14, February 2006

10. Zhang, Dong, India looks East: Strategies and Impacts, AUSAID Working Paper, Asia
Economic Section, September 2006

11. Nilanjan Banik, The BIMSTEC FTA and Its Relevance, CSIRD Discussion Paper #36,
October 2007

12. BIMSTEC, Framework Agreement on FTA, accessible at www.bimstec.org.

CHAPTER-2 Present state

Of
Knowledge

This part of study is dedicated to the review of literature. Due to scarcity of available research work on Indo-BIMSTEC trade relations, the researcher had also included various studies carried out on trade relation of BIMSTEC countries in general. The purpose of reviewing of earlier researches is not only to study the economics of the historical aspect of the present work but also be because the related studies have taken cognizance of one or more variables included in the study & as such these studies may help the investigator to design this study in such a manner so that recurrence of shortcomings & pitfalls observed in the earlier study may be rectified. Alternatively their findings may be utilized to facilitate the support whenever necessary, for interpretation of results of the present study. The brief description of these studies is presented below:Rajesh Mehta (2002)1 in his research paper titled Establishment of free trade arrangement among BIMST-EC countries studied aspects related to trade among BIMSTEC countries and concluded that Indias export basket is diversified as compared to corresponding baskets of other BIMST-EC countries. In fact, India is exporting a large number of items to other BIMSTEC countries. There is a possibility that India can capture a large share of these countries import market, if FTA is formed at earliest date. Amitendu Palit (2006)2 in his study titled Technology Upgradation through Global Value Chains: Challenges before BIMSTEC Nations attempt to study possibilities of advanced technologies for firms in some BIMSTEC nations in the context of global production networks dominated by Japanese lead firms. The author examined extant national technological capabilities, in terms of efficiencies in applying advanced technologies to commercial applications, as well as innovative capacities for tackling more advanced operations. The findings of the study indicate India as the leading BIMSTEC nation having capabilities for taking on diverse high-end activities, with other nations requiring considerable technological catching-up. Rahul Sen and Mukul G. Asher (2006)3 in their study titled BIMSTEC Japan Economic Partnership: Opportunities and Challenges explored opportunities for economic

cooperation between Japan and the BIMSTEC countries. They argued that there is a strong case for BIMSTEC members on the one hand and Japan on the other to broaden and deepen economic and political engagement with a view to enhancing strategic depth and leverage for each entity. The areas for win-win cooperation are many, ranging from energy security, tourism and risk management to taking advantage of the demographic complementarities between BIMSTEC and Japan. For Japan, the benefits will be widening of its economic space, and greater leverage. An important factor is that there is no historical bitterness between Japan and the BIMSTEC countries. BIMSTEC includes India, a country with economic potential to provide Japan and other BIMSTEC members with sustained economic opportunities and risk diversification. The BIMSTEC countries should make focused and sustained efforts at deepening economic cooperation among themselves and should focus on domestic reforms if they are to sustain Japans interest and realize the potential of the partnership. BIMSTEC members need a more pragmatic mindset that does not regard economic cooperation as a zero-sum game. The analysis in the paper suggests that BIMSTEC-Japan cooperation could made a modest contribution to Asian integration. But this is contingent upon domestic reforms and constructive engagement among the members, and willingness of Japan to take a strong leadership role in part of Asia which welcomes it. Rajesh Mehta and S. Narayanan (2006)4 in their study titled Indias Regional Trading Arrangements presented a brief non-technical overview of the conceptual basis of RTAs by highlighting the implications of concepts like trade creation and trade diversion. The study then moved to pinpointing some of the global trends in RTAs to place the Indian engagements in a perspective. The author above analysed Indias regional economic initiatives by presenting the factual account of the same. Pratip Kumar Datta and Pritam Datta (2007)5 in their study titled Role of Japan in the Technological Development of BIMSTEC: Issues and Opportunities for Cooperation described the scope of Japanese investment in BIMSTEC countries and suggested that Japan can play an overwhelmingly crucial role in technological development of BIMSTEC. In order to initiate transfer of technology from Japan to BIMSTEC, countries in the region have to

produce good quality skilled labour force. The author argued that technological transfer from Japan to BIMSTEC countries only in the industrial field is not sufficient for economic development of these countries. BIMSTEC countries should also take help of Japanese technology in agrarian development for a sustainable development. Tirthankar Mandal (2007)6 in his study titled Small and Medium Enterprises in BIMSTEC: Synergies and Emerging Issues for Cooperation find that Small and Medium Scale Enterprises (SMEs) have been playing an important role for the development of a country. However, the author observed a very uneven development of this sector in the recent times. The author concluded that the failure of the developing countries to take the SMEs sector development initiative in the right direction has been the major reason for slow process of this sector. During the recent past, the BIMSTEC countries have taken some important steps to rejuvenate their SMEs sector by integrating them to the global production networks and developing product specific policies. However, most of the countries in the BIMSTEC are yet to take the advantage of the situation and thereby need a collaborative effort in the process. This paper looks at the possibilities of such efforts and policies. Swapan K. Bhattacharya (2007)7 in his study titled Does BIMSTEC-Japan Economic Cooperation Promote Intra-Regional Trade? stated that Intra-regional trade is fairly high among BIMSTEC countries even in absence of any preferential tariff arrangements. The author concluded that once PTA and FTA will be negotiated and come into force in BIMSTEC, intra-regional trade will grow much faster and hope to catch ASEAN level. If Japan joins in this group with FTA, this will emerge as one of the most vibrant economic groups in this region. However, while moving towards this objective, there are many challenges such as rules of origin, harmonization of standards and uniform certification procedures which are vital to any kind of trade liberalization in the form of PTA or FTA. There should be comprehensive programme to liberalize and eliminate non-tariff barriers in tandem with the liberalization of tariffs. Success of PTA and FTA depends on the liberalization of NTBs and every member should prepare a comprehensive plan how to minimize it.

Mahfuz Kabir, ABM Ziaur Rahman and Sharif M Hossain (2007)8 in their study titled BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Energy Sector: Bangladesh Perspective attempt to capture the various aspects of energy resources and energy cooperation in BIMSTEC keeping in view the Bangladeshs perspectives. The paper explored the role of Japan in enhancing development, exploration and production of energy resources. It is quite evident from the study that the BIMSTEC countries are acutely hungry for energy resources to quench rising demand in growing economic activities in the region. Unfortunately most of the BIMSTEC countries do not have enough capacity and pragmatic outlook of about the potential and intrinsic strength of their economies. The paper concluded that Japan may play a significant role through investment, assistance and participation for its direct and indirect economic benefits as it is one of the biggest development partners in almost all the BIMSTEC countries. M. Nurul Islam (2007)9 in his study titled BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Technology: Bangladesh Perspective explored and identified the possible role of Japan in undertaking technology-based development programme for Bangladesh under BIMSTEC Cooperation Programme. The author suggested that Bangladesh should strengthen its human resources through higher education in order to train capable manpower to undertake technology-based development programme in the country. He recommended that in order to decide appropriate strategies for transfer of technology in future in BIMSTEC, there is a need to undertake a systematic study to assess the experiences of transfer of technology and technology innovations from Japan. Md. Liaquat Ali (2007)10 in his study titled BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Fisheries Sector:Bangladesh Perspectives explored the opportunities for Japan in the fisheries sector of Bangladesh. The author concluded that there is scope of enhancing the productivity through technological development and the shrimp industry is almost entirely dependent on the foreign markets, which is again linked with the quality and safety assurance of products for export as per buyers requirement. This is a challenge for sustainability of this industry.

Mizan R. Khan and Mahfuzul Haque (2007)11 in their study titled BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Tourism and Environment: Bangladesh Perspective stated that Tourism worldwide including in the BIMSTEC region is an expanding sector. It provides a significant foreign exchange and employment to some BIMSTEC countries. BIMSTEC has potentials to develop tourism as a growing industry. However, according to this paper, the progress in cooperation in the field of tourism in the BIMSTEC region is quite slow. This paper concluded that intra-regional tourism within the BIMSTEC countries need to be enhanced. Following ASEAN, Governments of the BIMSTEC countries should take some bold steps to remove the barriers standing in the way. In this context, Japan with its growing involvement in the BIMSTEC economies can facilitate the process of tourism integration with greater financial and technical assistance. A.K.M. Atiqur Rahman (2007)12 in his study titled BIMSTEC- Japan Cooperation in Trade and Investment: Bangladesh Perspective aimed to make an elementary analysis of the prospects of BIMSTEC-Japan cooperation from the perspective of Bangladesh. The author concluded that although Bangladesh is an LDC and much smaller in size compared to India, still it has enough potential to gain from BIMSTEC-Japan cooperation because of the fact that Japan is a major trading partner as well as a major development partner of Bangladesh. In all these cases BIMSTEC-Japan cooperation can bring benefits to Japan as well. Finally, according to the author, appropriate policies and actions are needed to reap the potential benefits out of BIMSTEC-Japan cooperation. Centre for Studies in International Relations and Development (2007)13 in the study titled Regional Enlargement and Its Impact on Trade: An Analysis on BIMSTEC+Japan understood the impact of the enlargement of BIMSTEC, through incorporation of Japan, on trade, and to investigate empirically whether or not BIMSTEC-Japan Economic Cooperation increases intra-regional flow of trade in goods. The study suggested that Japan has an important role to play in strengthening resource base of BIMSTEC countries and trade capacity. From Japans perspective, Japan can substantially extend its economic space and its technology through partnership with the firms in BIMSTEC countries, particularly in

knowledge-intensive areas, such as biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, IT, aero-space and certain manufacturing industries. This underlines the importance of cooperation and collaboration between BIMSTEC and Japan. Debashis Chakraborty (2007)14 in his study titled, Trade Performance and Integration Experience of BIMSTEC: A Review of Issues stated that the BIMSTEC FTA, the link between South and Southeast Asia is currently being negotiated. In his opinion advantage of BIMSTEC over other regional blocs is that it covers trade in services and investment issues, thereby paving the way for much deeper integration of the members. The researcher concluded that the trade growth is likely to be fuelled not only through tariff elimination; but removal of the non-tariff barriers and implementation of the trade facilitation measures would significantly contribute in the process as well. The members might also benefit from pursuing joint negotiating agenda at WTO, which the trade bloc may effectively lock-in. Nonetheless, the delay in implementation of the FTA in merchandise products is likely to affect the process of including service and investment under the coverage of the bloc, which underlines the need for an early conclusion of the negotiations. Nagesh Kumar (2007)15 in his study titled Regional Economic Integration, Foreign Direct Investment and Efficiency-Seeking Industrial Restructuring in Asia: The Case of India examined the Indias RTAs policy in Asia and the emerging patterns of efficiency-seeking industrial restructuring unleashed by it. This study provides a discussion of the analytical relationship between RTAs, patterns of trade, FDI resulting from the industrial restructuring. The paper gives few remarks on the importance of a broader framework for regional economic integration. M. Rahmatullah (2007)16 in his study titled BIMSTEC Japan Cooperation in Transport: Bangladesh Perspective looked into the potential benefit of Japans inclusion into BIMSTEC together with a review of the current status of Japanese assistance to Bangladesh and identified some of the major projects where Japanese assistance could be sought. Finally, the author concluded the paper by saying that it is time now for concerted

efforts to be made by all stakeholders, the governments, the private sector, the business community and the civil society at large, to bring about a change in the political mind sets of the leaders of certain member countries who are slowing down the process of regional integration in transport system among BIMSTEC countries. Wisarn Pupphavesa and Ruangrai Tokrisna (2007)17 in their study titled Towards BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Fisheries Sector: Thailand Perspective stated that BIMSTEC shares nearly 10 percent of the world fisheries export, and including Japan this share increased to 13 percent and even increased to 17 percent if they consider consumption of fisheries. Japan is a net importing country in fisheries sector and relies mostly on Thailand for its imports of fisheries. The study indicated that there is high opportunity for other BIMSTEC countries to export to Japan in fisheries sector. However, BIMSTEC countries are increasingly facing non-tariff measures from developed countries in fisheries sector. This paper argues that greater regional collaboration could strengthen BIMSTECs trade capacity in fisheries sector. Maung Aung and Min Min Than (2007)18 in his study titled BIMSTEC- Japan Cooperation in International Trade: Myanmar Perspective suggested that Japanese FDI should be guided towards the infrastructure development of the BIMSTEC countries. Special attention should be given to emphasize the growth of potential industries and trade with bilateral approach in particular. In order to attract Japanese FDI, BIMSTEC countries should strengthen macro economic condition, liberalize trade, harmonize investment regime, and adopts prudent financial and capital market. Amitendu Palit (2007)19 in his study titled A BIMSTEC-Japan Framework for Global Commodity Chains attempted to study the possibility of multi-country production networks within the BIMSTEC getting integrated with Japanese production systems. The author suggested that the efficiencies developed by each country in different production segments, particularly assembling operations, can be combined for creating regional production networks within BIMSTEC. These networks can provide the small and medium enterprises in the region the scope for integrating in broader marketing chains. It is also

possible that these networks can develop into production hubs capable of catering to larger markets outside the BIMSTEC. Indeed, the Japanese market is one such segment where intra-BIMSTEC production networks can not only explore opportunities, but can also conceive collaborative options for accessing global markets. Biswajit Nag and Debdeep De (2007)20 in his study titled Asian Integration Process and BIMSTEC stated that Regional cooperation is a stepping stone for economic integration within a geographic region. It may be market-driven integration without any explicit agreement implying that private sector is actively engaged in bringing convergence among the economies. Economic integration may also be pursued through cooperation agreements among the countries of the region which are mainly policy induced integration. Many regions across the world are engaged in comprehensive economic partnership agreements. The author brought out the characteristics of BIMSTEC and argued that the BIMSTEC focus area has strong impact on the Asian way of integration. Nilanjan Banik (2007)21 in his study titled, The BIMSTEC FTA and Its Relevance attempted to determine the extent to which BIMSTEC economies were ready to form an FTA. Based on his analysis of economic variables e.g. price, income, geographical characteristics, trade, etc., the author suggested that the BIMSTEC region had the requisite characteristics that would be desirable to form an FTA. Aung Kyaw Oo (2008)22 in his study titled BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Tourism Development:Myanmar Perspective stated that if properly incorporated into development strategies, the tourism sector can be a cornerstone of new productive systems aimed at eradicating poverty and integrating the developing countries into the global economy. Janaka Wijayasiri and Deshal De Mel (2008)23 in his study titled BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Trade and Investment: A Sri Lankan Perspective stated that a lot of work needs to be done to get BIMSTECs own house in order before countries like Japan would even be interested in getting involved in such an agreement. Low trade coverage, high transactions costs to trade and existing FTAs are cases in point. Japan could however play

an important role in boosting economic cooperation in BIMSTEC if it were to join. For instance, building transport infrastructure will be crucial to promote regional cooperation and in this regard Japanese ODA can play a significant role. Furthermore, the entry of Japan would boost competition in the region and act as a catalyst for upgrading quality and standards of production and service supply in the region. These potential dynamic benefits will make it worthwhile giving strong consideration to Japans entry into BIMSTEC whilst being aware of the challenges that have been outlined in the paper. Myat Thein and Myoe Myint (2008)24 in their study titled BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Energy Sector: Myanmar Perspective discussed the energy resources in BIMSTEC countries and the possible complementarities in energy sector among the BIMSTEC countries and between BIMSTEC and Japan. The paper concluded that there are ample opportunities for regional cooperation, not only in the production and utilization of natural gas but also in hydroelectricity; and in the development of new and renewable sources of energy. One of the conclusions of this paper is that greater cooperation with Japan would help BIMSTEC countries in strengthening energy related infrastructure and sourcing modern technology. Cho Cho Thein (2008)25 in his study titled Regional Cooperation in Transport: Myanmar Perspective on BIMSTEC stated that one of the major impediments that the BIMSTEC is facing is the lack of improved cross-border physical connectivity. To meet these challenges, this author argued that BIMSTEC countries need to develop regional transportation and transit network that offers efficient transportation. The author recommended that BIMSTEC countries should develop an effective transportation and transit facilitation system that will greatly reduce current physical and non-physical barriers to transportation and transit. The author also suggested that by enhancing cooperation with developed economy like Japan will benefit the subregion in terms of transportation technology and infrastructure development.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Looking into the current trade dynamics of BIMSTEC countries, it is observed that there is considerable scope for enhanced intra-bloc trade. Moreover, apart from the trade in final products, trade in intermediate products is also likely to increase within BIMSTEC, resulting from possible production integration among the members. The trade growth is likely to be fuelled not only through tariff elimination; but removal of the non-tariff barriers and implementation of the trade facilitation measures would significantly contribute in the process as well.

REFERENCES
1. Rajesh Mehta, Establishment of free trade arrangement among BIMST-EC countries: some
issues, RIS Discussion Paper # 23, January 2002

2. Amitendu Palit, Technology Upgradation through Global Value Chains: Challenges before
BIMSTEC Nations, CSIRD Discussion Paper #13, January 2006

3. Rahul Sen and Mukul G. Asher, BIMSTEC Japan Economic Partnership: Opportunities and
Challenges, CSIRD Discussion Paper #14, February 2006

4. Rajesh Mehta And S. Narayanan, Indias Regional Trading Arrangements, RIS Discussion
Paper # 114, August 2006

5. Pratip Kumar Datta and Pritam Datta, Role of Japan in the Technological Development of
BIMSTEC: Issues and Opportunities for Cooperation, CSIRD Discussion Paper #21, January 2007

6. Tirthankar Mandal, Small and Medium Enterprises in BIMSTEC: Synergies and Emerging
Issues for Cooperation, CSIRD Discussion Paper #22, January 2007

7. Swapan K. Bhattacharya, Does BIMSTEC-Japan Economic Cooperation Promote IntraRegional Trade? The Case for Free Trade Arrangement, CSIRD Discussion Paper #23, February 2007

8. Mahfuz Kabir, ABM Ziaur Rahman and Sharif M Hossain, BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in
Energy Sector: Bangladesh Perspective, CSIRD Discussion Paper #24, April 2007

9. M. Nurul Islam, BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Technology: Bangladesh Perspective,

CSIRD Discussion Paper #25, April 2007

10. Md. Liaquat Ali, BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Fisheries Sector: Bangladesh

Perspectives, CSIRD Discussion Paper #26, April 2007

11. Mizan R. Khan and Mahfuzul Haque, BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Tourism and
Environment: Bangladesh Perspective, CSIRD Discussion Paper #27, May 2007

12. A.K.M. Atiqur Rahman, BIMSTEC- Japan Cooperation in Trade and Investment: Bangladesh
Perspective, CSIRD Discussion Paper #28, June 2007

13. Centre for Studies in International Relations and Development, Regional Enlargement and
Its Impact on Trade: An Analysis on BIMSTEC+Japan, CSIRD Discussion Paper #29, June 2007

14. Debashis Chakraborty, Trade Performance and Integration Experience of BIMSTEC: A

Review of Issues, CSIRD Discussion Paper #30, June 2007

15. Nagesh Kumar, Regional Economic Integration, Foreign Direct Investment and EfficiencySeeking Industrial Restructuring in Asia: The Case of India, RIS DP # 123, June 2007

16. M. Rahmatullah, BIMSTEC Japan Cooperation in Transport: Bangladesh Perspective,

CSIRD Discussion Paper #31, July 2007

17. Wisarn Pupphavesa and Ruangrai Tokrisna, Towards BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in

Fisheries Sector: Thailand Perspective, CSIRD Discussion Paper #32, July 2007

18. Maung Aung and Min Min Than, BIMSTEC- Japan Cooperation in International Trade:
Myanmar Perspective, CSIRD Discussion Paper #33, September 2007

19. Amitendu Palit, A BIMSTEC-Japan Framework for Global Commodity Chains , CSIRD
Discussion Paper #34, October 2007

20. Biswajit Nag and Debdeep De, Asian Integration Process and BIMSTEC, CSIRD Discussion
Paper #35, October 2007

21. Nilanjan Banik, The BIMSTEC FTA and Its Relevance, CSIRD Discussion Paper #36,
October 2007

22. Aung Kyaw Oo, BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Tourism Development: Myanmar

Perspective , CSIRD Discussion Paper #37, March 2008

23. Janaka Wijayasiri and Deshal De Mel, BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Trade and
Investment: A Sri Lankan Perspective, CSIRD Discussion Paper #38, May 2008

24. Myat Thein* and Myoe Myint, BIMSTEC-Japan Cooperation in Energy Sector: Myanmar
Perspective, CSIRD Discussion Paper #39, May 2008

25. Cho Cho Thein, Regional Cooperation in Transport: Myanmar Perspective on BIMSTEC,
CSIRD Discussion Paper #42, September 2008

CHAPTER-3

trade
PERFORMANCE

of
Bimstec nations

3.1 ANALYSIS OF INTRA-BIMSTEC TRADE PERFORMANCE OF BIMSTEC NATIONS

In this section, we study the Intra-BIMSTEC trade performance of BIMSTEC Nations. For this purpose researcher has prepared two different correlation matrixes. First correlation matrix shows correlation between the export and import of these countries with each other and second correlation matrix shows correlation between the total trade and trade balance of these countries with each other. CORRELATION MATRIX: 1 SHOWING INTRA-BIMSTEC EXPORT IMPORT OF BIMSTEC NATIONS WITH EACH OTHER FROM 1991-2008
INDIA INDIA THAILAND SRILANKA BANGLADESH NEPAL MYANMAR BHUTAN
Table 3.1

THAILAND .95 .11 .05 .34 .75 .64

SRILANKA .93 .11 .23 .20 .42 .75

BANGLADESH .79 .05 .23 .53 .26 .60

NEPAL .89 .34 .20 .53 .08 .42

MYANMAR .95 .75 .42 .26 .08 -.20

BHUTAN .72 .64 .75 .60 .42 -.20 -

.95 .93 .79 .89 .95 .72

CORRELATION MATRIX: 2 SHOWING INTRA-BIMSTEC TOTAL TRADE & TRADE BALANCE OF BIMSTEC NATIONS WITH EACH OTHER FROM 1991-2008
INDIA INDIA THAILAND SRILANKA BANGLADESH NEPAL MYANMAR BHUTAN
Table 3.2

THAILAND -.63 -.99 -.92 -.52 .93 .10

SRILANKA .98 .99 .32 .20 -.85 -.93

BANGLADESH .99 .92 -.32 .20 .95 -.37

NEPAL .93 .52 -.20 -.20 .92 .85

MYANMAR -.98 -.93 .85 -.95 -.92 -.20

BHUTAN -.54 -.10 .93 .37 -.85 .20 -

.63 -.98 -.99 -.93 .98 .54

These correlation matrixes were analyzed by the 5-point ranking scale. The description of 5-points is as follows: Value of r (Correlation co-efficient) .01 to .25 .26 to .50 .51 to .75 .76 to .99 1
Table 3.3

Correlation Results Very low correlation Low correlation High correlation Very high correlation Perfect correlation

Points 1 2 3 4 5

ANALYSIS OF CORRELATION MATRIX: 1 SHOWING INTRA-BIMSTEC EXPORT IMPORT OF BIMSTEC NATIONS WITH EACH OTHER FROM 1991-2008
INDIA THAILAND SRILANKA BANGLADESH NEPAL MYANMAR BHUTAN TOTAL POINTS INDIA THAILAND SRILANKA BANGLADESH NEPAL MYANMAR BHUTAN
Table 3.4

RANK

+4 +4 +4 +4 +4 +3

+4 +1 +1 +2 +3 +2

+4 +1 +1 +1 +2 +3

+4 +1 +1 +3 +2 +3

+4 +2 +1 +3 +1 +2

+4 +3 +2 +2 +1 -1

+3 +3 +3 +3 +2 -1 -

23 14 12 14 13 11 12

I II IV II III V IV

ANALYSIS OF CORRELATION MATRIX: 2 SHOWING INTRA-BIMSTEC TOTAL TRADE & TRADE BALANCE OF BIMSTEC NATIONS WITH EACH OTHER FROM 1991-2008
INDIA THAILAND SRILANKA BANGLADESH NEPAL MYANMAR BHUTAN TOTAL POINTS INDIA THAILAND SRILANKA BANGLADESH NEPAL MYANMAR BHUTAN
Table 3.5

RANK

+3 -4 -4 -4 +4 +3

-3 -4 -4 -3 +4 +1

+4 +4 +2 +1 -4 -4

+4 +4 -2 +1 +4 -2

+4 +3 -1 -1 +4 +4

-4 -4 +4 -4 -4 -1

-3 -1 +4 +2 -4 +1 -

2 9 -3 -9 -13 13 1

III II V VI VII I IV

Indias correlation between the export-import is best among all the BIMSTEC nations. As India get 23 points on the basis of above 5-point scale. Thailand & Bangladesh are on II rank with 14 points, which are very less than 23. Nepal is on III rank with 13 points, Sri Lanka & Bhutan are on IV rank with same points 12 and Myanmar is on last rank with only 11 points. India get very much points than any other BIMSTEC nation. So, researcher can say among all the BIMSTEC nations Indias correlation of Intra-BIMSTEC Export-Import is best. Correlation between the total trade & trade balance is best of Myanmar among all the BIMSTEC nations with 13 points. Thailand is on II rank with 9 points, India is on III rank with only 2 points, which are much less than the points of Myanmar & Thailand. Bhutan is on IV rank with 1 point, Sri Lanka is on V rank with negative 2 points, Bangladesh is on VI rank with negative 9 points and Nepal is on last rank with only -13 points.

3.2

IMPACT

OF

BIMSTEC

ON

BIMSTEC

NATIONS

TOTAL

TRADE

PERFORMANCE
In this section, we study the impact of BIMSTEC on BIMSTEC nations total trade performance. The researcher has considered the data of last 18 years& divides the data into two series i.e., Pre-BIMSTEC & Post-BIMSTEC. For India, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh & Myanmar, Pre-BIMSTEC consider the period from the year 1991 to the year 1997, when these nations join the BIMSTEC. For Nepal & Bhutan, Pre-BIMSTEC consider the period from the year 1991 to the year 2004, when these nations join the BIMSTEC. Rests of the years were considered in the Post-BIMSTEC period. To testify the impact of BIMSTEC on BIMSTEC nations total trade performance the researcher framed the following null hypothesis: By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on trade performance of BIMSTEC countries. (HO-1) To test the above stated null hypothesis, the researcher calculated thet value at the 95 percent confidence level for 16 degree of freedom of the total trade data of all BIMSTEC nations and on the basis of t-Test of Significance results were drawn whether the null hypothesis is rejected or accepted. The description of t-Test of Significance for BIMSTEC nations total trade performance is presented in the following table.

TABLE SHOWING THE DESCRIPTION OF T TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR TOTAL TRADE PERFORMANCE OF BIMSTEC NATIONS S.NO. COUNTRY t-VALUE AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR 16 DEGREE OF FREEDOM CALCULTED (CV) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
INDIA

COMPARISON OF CV & TV

DECISION (HO ACCEPTED / REJECTED) HO Rejected HO Rejected HO Rejected HO Rejected HO Rejected HO Rejected HO Rejected

RESULTS

TABULATED(TV) 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 CV>TV CV>TV CV>TV CV>TV CV>TV CV>TV CV>TV

3.53 4.90 11.33 5.17 8.6 3.87 5.18

There is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Indias total trade performance. There is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Thailands total trade performance. There is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Sri Lankas total trade performance. There is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Bangladeshs total trade performance. There is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Nepals total trade performance. There is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Myanmars total trade performance. There is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Bhutans total trade performance.

THAILAND

SRILANKA

BANGLADESH

NEPAL

MYANMAR

BHUTAN

Table 3.6

CONCLUDING REMARKS
The main feature of BIMSTEC countries is that they all possess a relatively low per capita income level and all of them are characterized by unemployment, low level technology, and thus low level productivity. Today, BIMSTEC shares one fourth of the world poor. On the other hand, it is not easy to think of another region of the world, which can surpass BIMSTEC in terms of resource endowments - natural and otherwise. Notwithstanding its vast advantages of resource endowments, in terms of per capita income, BIMSTEC, as a whole, is still running far behind the middle-income world in terms of economic wellbeing. Economic disparity across BIMSTEC is very much visible. This study also concludes that while several studies have attempted to estimate the trade gains and welfare effects in the case of BIMSTEC FTA, a lot more needs to be done in terms of making more accurate assessment of the implications of its FTA for various dimensions of human development like literacy, life expectancy, quality of life, empowerment, gender equality, etc.

CHAPTER-4 INDIAs trade With

Bimstec
countries

4.1 REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF INDO-BIMSTEC TRADE RELATIONS

In this section, we study the slope of Indo-BIMSTEC trade relations. The slope is the vertical distance divided by the horizontal distance between any two points on the line, which is the rate of change along the regression line. For this purpose researcher has applied the regression analysis for identify the value of b (slope). The researcher has considered the data of last 18 years, from the year 1991(when the economic liberalization was started in the India) to the last calendar year 2008. The researcher has calculated the value of b in the reference of Indias total trade & Indias trade balance both with each BIMSTEC nation & gave rank I to highest value of b and rank last to the lowest value of b. The analysis table is as follows: TABLE 4.1: SHOWING VALUE OF b FOR INDIAS TOTAL TRADE & TRADE BALANCE WITH OTHER BIMSTEC COUNTRIES NATION

TOTAL TRADE
Value of b Rank
I II III IV V VI

TRADE BALANCE
Value of b
-15.98 124.86 135.20 48.85 -30.39 -5.81

Rank
V II I III VI IV

Thailand Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal Myanmar Bhutan

216.03 186.86 159.61 108.89 52.38 23.70

On the basis of regression analysis, researcher stated that slope of India-Thailand total trade is best among all the BIMSTEC nations among, it is 216.03 but the slope of Indias trade balance with Thailand is negative, it is only -15.98. So, India should try to decrease its Imports and increase its export with Thailand for better trade relations. Slope of India-Sri Lanka is positive for both total trade and trade balance with high values. So, it can be stated that the Indias trade relations with Sri Lanka are good and should try to strengthen them for better foreign trade.

Slope of India with Bangladesh is 159.61 for total trade and 135.20 for trade balance. Both the slopes are positive with high values. So, it can be stated that IndiaBangladesh trade relations are satisfying. India should try to maintain them. In the case of India-Nepal trade relation slope for total trade is 108.89 and for trade balance, it is only 48.85, which very less than 108.89. It proves that Indias trade with Nepal is not much satisfying. India-Myanmar total trade has slope of 52.38, which is very less than above stated countries. India-Myanmar trade balance has negative slope, it is only -30.39. The values of slopes tell that the India has not good trade relations with Myanmar because the total trade slope is very less and trade balance slope is negative. So, India should have to take measures for improving trade relations with Myanmar for better performance of IndoBIMSTEC trade relations. India-Bhutan trade relations are worst among all the BIMSTEC nations. It has very less total trade slope, only 23.70 and negative trade balance slope i.e. -5.81. So, India must try to improve trade relations with Bhutan. In conclusion, researcher said that India-Sri Lanka and India-Bangladesh trade relations are best among all Indo-BIMSTEC trade relations. India-Thailand and India-Nepal trade relations are not much good but not very good. India-Myanmar and India-Bhutan trade relations are really considerable.

4.2 IMPACT OF BIMSTEC ON INDO-BIMSTEC TRADE PERFORMANCE

INDIA AND THAILAND: To study the impact of BIMSTEC on Indias trade relations with
Thailand researcher has taken the two segments of bilateral trade between the two countries i.e. Pre-BIMSTEC & Post-BIMSTEC as follows: TABLE 4.2: SHOWING INDIA-THAILAND TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA

Pre-BIMSTEC (X2)
YEAR 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 EXPORT 13.98 20.98 31.94 36.47 45.19 45.34 342.90 IMPORT 34.15 48.25 51.26 153.94 162.18 200.00 226.57 TOTAL TRADE 48.13 69.23 83.2 190.41 207.37 245.34 569.47 YEAR 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Post-BIMSTEC (X1)
EXPORT 321.00 449.59 530.12 633.13 711.20 831.68 901.39 1,075.31 1,443.22 1,808.79 1441.31 IMPORT 273.11 326.02 337.92 423.09 379.00 609.05 865.88 1,211.58 1,744.25 2,302.13 2066.13 TOTAL TRADE 594.11 775.61 868.04 1056.22 1090.2 1440.73 1767.27 2,286.89 3,187.47 4,110.92 3507.44

Source: EXIM Data Bank, Ministry of Commerce, India

Figure 4.1: Showing India-Thailand Trade Relations

5000 4000

3000
2000 1000 0

2004

2005

2006

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2007

-1000

EXPORT

IMPORT

TOTAL TRADE

TRADE BALANCE

2008

To testify the impact of BIMSTEC on India-Thailand trade, the researcher framed the following null hypothesis to test the significance of growth in India-Thailand trade: By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India-Thailand trade performance. (HO-2) To test the above stated null hypothesis, the researcher calculated the t value for Indias export to Thailand, Indias import from Thailand and Indias total trade with Thailand at the 95 percent confidence level for 16 degree of freedom and on the basis of tTest of Significance results were drawn whether the null hypothesis is rejected or accepted. The description of t-Test of Significance for India-Thailand trade performance is presented in the following table. TABLE 4.3: SHOWING THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-THAILAND t-VALUE AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR 16 DEGREE OF FREEDOM CALCULTED (CV) 3.61 4.76 2.87 TABULATED (TV) 2.12 2.12 2.12

S.NO.

t-Test for IndiaThailand

COMPARISON OF CV & TV

DECISION (HO ACCEPTED / REJECTED)

1. 2. 3.

Indias Export to Thailand Indias Import from Thailand Indias Total Trade with Thailand

CV>TV CV>TV CV>TV

HO Rejected HO Rejected HO Rejected

RESULT: It can be concluded from above that there is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Indias Export to, Import from and Total Trade with Thailand at 95% confidence level.

INDIA AND SRI LANKA : To study the impact of BIMSTEC on Indias trade relations with
Sri Lanka researcher has taken the two segments of bilateral trade between the two countries i.e. Pre-BIMSTEC & Post-BIMSTEC as follows: TABLE 4.4: SHOWING INDIA-SRI LANKA TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA

Pre-BIMSTEC (X2)
YEAR 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 EXPORT 12.26 20.52 25.80 32.88 38.39 48.42 489.23 IMPORT 8.06 11.38 17.96 27.56 39.52 45.80 30.21 TOTAL TRADE 20.32 31.9 43.76 60.44 77.91 94.22 519.44 YEAR 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Post-BIMSTEC (X1)
EXPORT 437.13 499.27 640.14 630.89 920.98 1,319.20 1,413.18 2,024.67 2,253.82 2,826.54 2007.39 IMPORT 37.68 44.23 45.01 67.38 90.83 194.74 378.40 577.70 470.26 631.42 262.33 TOTAL TRADE 474.81 543.5 685.15 698.27 1,011.81 1,513.94 1,791.58 2,602.37 2,724.08 3,457.96 2269.72

Source: EXIM Data Bank, Ministry of Commerce, India

Figure 4.2: Showing India-Sri Lanka Trade Relations

4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 EXPORT IMPORT TOTAL TRADE TRADE BALANCE

To testify the impact of BIMSTEC on India-Sri Lanka trade, the researcher framed the following null hypothesis to test the significance of growth in India-Sri Lanka trade: By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India-Sri Lanka trade performance. (HO-3) To test the above stated null hypothesis, the researcher calculated the t value for Indias export to Sri Lanka, Indias import from Sri Lanka and Indias total trade with Sri Lanka at the 95 percent confidence level for 16 degree of freedom and on the basis of t-Test of Significance results were drawn whether the null hypothesis is rejected or accepted. The description of t-Test of Significance for India-Sri Lanka trade performance is presented in the following table. TABLE 4.5: SHOWING THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-SRILANKA t-VALUE AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR 16 DEGREE OF FREEDOM CALCULTED (CV) 4.10 1.98 3.81 TABULATED (TV) 2.12 2.12 2.12

S.NO.

t-Test for India-Sri Lanka

COMPARISON OF CV & TV

DECISION (HO ACCEPTED / REJECTED)

1. 2. 3.

Indias Export to Sri Lanka Indias Import from Sri Lanka Indias Total Trade with Sri Lanka

CV>TV CV<TV CV>TV

HO Rejected HO Accepted HO Rejected

RESULT: It can be concluded from above that there is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Indias Export to and Total Trade with Sri Lanka & no any significance impact of BIMSTEC on Indias Import from Sri Lanka at 95% confidence level.

INDIA AND BANGLADESH : To study the impact of BIMSTEC on Indias trade relations
with Bangladesh researcher has taken the two segments of bilateral trade between the two countries i.e. Pre-BIMSTEC & Post-BIMSTEC as follows: TABLE 4.6: SHOWING INDIA-BANGLADESH TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA

Pre-BIMSTEC (X2)
YEAR 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 EXPORT 22.81 29.40 38.55 57.83 100.25 88.13 786.46 IMPORT 4.01 10.06 16.02 34.24 82.06 63.11 50.81 TOTAL TRADE 26.82 39.46 54.57 92.07 182.31 151.24 837.27 YEAR 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Post-BIMSTEC (X1)
EXPORT 995.64 636.31 935.04 1,002.18 1,176.00 1,740.74 1,631.12 1,664.36 1,626.58 2,918.22 1997.96 IMPORT 62.40 78.15 80.51 59.12 62.05 77.63 59.37 127.03 228.31 257.12 262.45 TOTAL TRADE 1058.04 714.46 1015.55 1,061.30 1,238.05 1,818.37 1,690.49 1,791.39 1,854.89 3,175.34 2260.41

Source: EXIM Data Bank, Ministry of Commerce, India

Figure 4.3: Showing India-Bangladesh Trade Relations

3500
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

EXPORT

IMPORT

TOTAL TRADE

TRADE BALANCE

To testify the impact of BIMSTEC on India-Bangladesh trade, the researcher framed the following null hypothesis to test the significance of growth in India- Bangladesh trade: By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India-Bangladesh trade performance. (HO-4) To test the above stated null hypothesis, the researcher calculated the t value for Indias export to Bangladesh, Indias import from Bangladesh and Indias total trade with Bangladesh at the 95 percent confidence level for 16 degree of freedom and on the basis of t-Test of Significance results were drawn whether the null hypothesis is rejected or accepted. The description of t-Test of Significance for India-Bangladesh trade performance is presented in the following table. TABLE 4.7: SHOWING THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-BANGLADESH t-VALUE AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR 16 DEGREE OF FREEDOM CALCULTED TABULATED (CV) (TV) 5.76 2.78 5.53 2.12 2.12 2.12

S.NO.

t-Test for IndiaBangladesh Indias Export to Bangladesh Indias Import from Bangladesh Indias Total Trade with Bangladesh

COMPARISON OF CV & TV

DECISION (HO ACCEPTED / REJECTED)

1. 2. 3.

CV>TV CV>TV CV>TV

HO Rejected HO Rejected HO Rejected

RESULT: It can be concluded from above that there is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Indias Export to, Import from and Total Trade with Bangladesh at 95% confidence level.

INDIA AND NEPAL : To study the impact of BIMSTEC on Indias trade relations with Nepal
researcher has taken the two segments of bilateral trade between the two countries i.e. PreBIMSTEC & Post-BIMSTEC as follows: TABLE 4.8: SHOWING INDIA-NEPAL TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA

Pre-BIMSTEC (X2)
YEAR TOTAL TRADE 5.43 20.1 25.53 1991 5.99 20.48 26.47 1992 8.79 25.90 34.69 1993 10.77 32.82 43.59 1994 15.29 46.97 62.26 1995 16.80 64.98 81.78 1996 170.05 95.16 265.21 1997 122.41 144.85 267.26 1998 151.23 188.63 339.86 1999 140.84 255.08 395.92 2000 214.46 355.94 570.40 2001 350.36 281.76 632.12 2002 669.35 286.04 955.39 2003 743.14 345.83 1,088.97 2004 Source: EXIM Data Bank, Ministry of Commerce, India EXPORT IMPORT YEAR 2005 2006 2007 2008

Post-BIMSTEC (X1)
EXPORT 859.97 927.77 1,506.79 1202.23 IMPORT 379.85 305.73 628.03 411.51 TOTAL TRADE 1,239.82 1,233.50 2,134.82 1613.74

Figure 4.4: Showing India-Nepal Trade Relations

2500
2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 EXPORT IMPORT TOTAL TRADE TRADE BALANCE

To testify the impact of BIMSTEC on India-Nepal trade, the researcher framed the following null hypothesis to test the significance of growth in India- Nepal trade: By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India- Nepal trade performance. (HO-5) To test the above stated null hypothesis, the researcher calculated the t value for Indias export to Nepal, Indias import from Nepal and Indias total trade with Nepal at the 95 percent confidence level for 16 degree of freedom and on the basis of t-Test of Significance results were drawn whether the null hypothesis is rejected or accepted. The description of t-Test of Significance for India- Nepal trade performance is presented in the following table. TABLE 4.9: SHOWING THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-NEPAL t-VALUE AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR 16 DEGREE OF FREEDOM CALCULTED TABULATED (CV) (TV) 9.31 4.94 4.28 2.12 2.12 2.12

S.NO.

t-Test for India- Nepal

COMPARISON OF CV & TV

DECISION (HO ACCEPTED / REJECTED)

1. 2. 3.

Indias Export to Nepal Indias Import from Nepal Indias Total Trade with Nepal

CV>TV CV>TV CV>TV

HO Rejected HO Rejected HO Rejected

RESULT: It can be concluded from above that there is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Indias Export to, Import from and Total Trade with Nepal at 95% confidence level.

INDIA AND MYANMAR : To study the impact of BIMSTEC on Indias trade relations with
Myanmar researcher has taken the two segments of bilateral trade between the two countries i.e. Pre-BIMSTEC & Post-BIMSTEC as follows: TABLE 4.10: SHOWING INDIA-MYANMAR TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA

Pre-BIMSTEC (X2)
YEAR 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 EXPORT _ _ _ _ _ _ 49.31 IMPORT 35.89 95.76 108.46 113.72 155.16 183.26 224.01 TOTAL TRADE 35.89 95.76 108.46 113.72 155.16 183.26 273.32 YEAR 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Post-BIMSTEC (X1)
EXPORT 30.12 34.10 52.71 60.89 75.07 89.64 113.19 110.70 139.95 185.43 173.28 IMPORT 173.76 171.59 181.69 374.43 336.04 409.01 405.91 525.96 781.93 809.94 688.59 TOTAL TRADE 203.88 205.69 234.4 435.32 411.11 498.65 519.10 636.66 921.88 995.37 861.87

Source: EXIM Data Bank, Ministry of Commerce, India

Figure 4.5: Showing India-Myanmar Trade Relations

1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

1995

-200 -400 -600 -800

EXPORT

IMPORT

TOTAL TRADE

TRADE BALANCE

2008

1991

1992

1993

1994

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

lxii

To testify the impact of BIMSTEC on India-Myanmar trade, the researcher framed the following null hypothesis to test the significance of growth in India- Myanmar trade: By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India-Myanmar trade performance. (HO-6) To test the above stated null hypothesis, the researcher calculated the t value for Indias export to Myanmar, Indias import from Myanmar and Indias total trade with Myanmar at the 95 percent confidence level for 16 degree of freedom and on the basis of tTest of Significance results were drawn whether the null hypothesis is rejected or accepted. The description of t-Test of Significance for India-Myanmar trade performance is presented in the following table. TABLE 4.11: SHOWING THE DESCRIPTION OF t TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-MYANMAR t-VALUE AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR 16 DEGREE OF FREEDOM CALCULTED TABULATED (CV) (TV) 4.58 3.53 3.75 2.12 2.12 2.12

S.NO.

t-Test for IndiaMyanmar Indias Export to Myanmar Indias Import from Myanmar Indias Total Trade with Myanmar

COMPARISON OF CV & TV

DECISION (HO ACCEPTED / REJECTED)

1. 2. 3.

CV>TV CV<TV CV>TV

HO Rejected HO Accepted HO Rejected

RESULT: It can be concluded from above that there is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Indias Export to, Import from and Total Trade with Myanmar at 95% confidence level.

lxiii

INDIA AND BHUTAN : To study the impact of BIMSTEC on Indias trade relations with
Bhutan researcher has taken the two segments of bilateral trade between the two countries i.e. Pre-BIMSTEC & Post-BIMSTEC as follows: TABLE 4.12: SHOWING INDIA-BHUTAN TRADE RELATIONS IN PRE & POST BIMSTEC ERA

Pre-BIMSTEC (X2)
YEAR TOTAL TRADE _ _ _ 1991 _ _ _ 1992 _ _ _ 1993 _ _ _ 1994 _ _ _ 1995 _ _ _ 1996 13.33 13.44 26.77 1997 9.56 6.13 15.69 1998 7.57 18.01 25.58 1999 1.08 21.09 22.17 2000 7.60 23.92 31.52 2001 39.05 32.15 71.2 2002 89.49 52.37 141.86 2003 84.58 71.00 155.58 2004 Source: EXIM Data Bank, Ministry of Commerce, India EXPORT IMPORT YEAR 2005 2006 2007 2008

Post-BIMSTEC (X1)
EXPORT 99.17 57.46 86.69 80.92 IMPORT 88.77 141.33 194.48 119.10 TOTAL TRADE 187.94 198.79 281.17 200.02

Figure 4.6: Showing India-Bhutan Trade Relations

350 300 250
200 150

100 50
0

1997

2005

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2007

-50 -100

-150
EXPORT IMPORT TOTAL TRADE TRADE BALANCE

2008
lxiv

lxv

To testify the impact of BIMSTEC on India-Myanmar trade, the researcher framed the following null hypothesis to test the significance of growth in India- Myanmar trade: By and large there is no significance impact of BIMSTEC on India-Myanmar trade performance. (HO-7) To test the above stated null hypothesis, the researcher calculated the t value for Indias export to Myanmar, Indias import from Myanmar and Indias total trade with Myanmar at the 95 percent confidence level for 16 degree of freedom and on the basis of tTest of Significance results were drawn whether the null hypothesis is rejected or accepted. The description of t-Test of Significance for India- Myanmar trade performance is presented in the following table. TABLE 4.13: SHOWING THE DESCRIPTION OFt TEST OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR INDIA-MYANMAR t-VALUE AT 95% CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR 16 DEGREE OF FREEDOM CALCULTED TABULATED (CV) (TV) 4.12 44.06 8.27 2.12 2.12 2.12

S.NO.

t-Test for IndiaBhutan Indias Export to Bhutan Indias Import from Bhutan Indias Total Trade with Bhutan

COMPARISON OF CV & TV

DECISION (HO ACCEPTED / REJECTED)

1. 2. 3.

CV>TV CV>TV CV>TV

HO Rejected HO Rejected HO Rejected

RESULT: It can be concluded from above that there is significance impact of BIMSTEC on Indias Export to, Import from and Total Trade with Myanmar at 95% confidence level.

lxvi

CONCLUDING REMARKS
The analysis of Indias RTAs in the preceding sections brings out clearly that it is imperative that the analytical concepts are more rigorously applied while economic engagements of India gain momentum on a wider canvass. It may also be concluded that the recent spate of Indias entering into RTAs is nothing but a reflection of the prevailing global trends. However, it may be highlighted that still Indias major regional economic interactions have focused more on trade and only recently talks have begun in a few cases in the areas of investment and cooperation in services.

lxvii

CHAPTER-5

CONCLUSION,
FINDINGS & SUGGESTIONS

lxviii

5.1 RESULTS OF INTRA-BIMSTEC TRADE ANALYSIS

Greater economic cooperation among BIMSTEC member nations has important implications in the form of larger market, economies of scale in production, and improved resource allocation. Although, all the BIMSTEC member countries have formed RTAs in recent years, the intra-BIMSTEC trade volume has not yet increased substantially and most of the member countries are still trading with extra-bloc countries. Thus, it would seem that trade promotion measures among the BIMSTEC countries are seriously in need of revitalizing now and border trade improvements should be considered especially for Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. Total trade among the BIMSTEC is increased but there is a scope for further increment by taking corrective measures.

5.2 RESULTS OF INDO-BIMSTEC TRADE ANALYSIS

Indo-BIMSTEC trade relations are entering now into their new high time which was never seen in the past. Increasing cooperation between India and other BIMSTEC nations may open a new dawn of prosperity and regional stability. Indo-BIMSTEC cooperation may bring mutual benefits for both India and other BIMSTEC countries. There is potential for cooperation in trade in goods and service, investment and other areas. Sri Lanka and Thailand are the most important Indias trading partners in BIMSTEC region, in terms of both exports and imports. But India has unfavourable trade balance with Thailand. So, Sri Lanka is the best trading partner of India among all the BIMSTEC nations. Indias imports from Thailand are very high due to the import of electrical machinery and equipment, sound recorders and reproducers, television image, nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances, parts thereof. These items contain more than 40% part of total Imports from Thailand.

lxix

However, Bhutan and Myanmar trade with India is negligible. India should try to make unfavourable trade balance into favourable by taking corrective actions for Export Promotion. Because, economies which have promoted exports have shown higher rates of growth than the economies which have promoted import substitution. According to the World Development Report, while the strongly outward oriented economies achieve a 7.7% per annum growth rate of GDP in the period 1973 to 1985, the strongly inward oriented could manage a growth of only 2.5% per annum during the period. India should take steps to boost its exports to other BIMSTEC nations. These steps are as follows: Identify potential products groups which can be pushed into export market. Identify the major markets which can absorb a countrys potential products. Select the right manufacturing export units which can undertake the responsibility of entering the overseas markets. Provide adequate & improved infrastructure for exporters. Bring tariff rates inline with the international level in order to remove any bias against production for exports. Allow exporters to borrow from the international if rates of interest are higher in the domestic markets. Strategic state intervention to aggressively promote exports and creating necessary institutions and organization which aid and promote exports. Create special domestic financial facilities in term lending institutions for export related investment. Check the domestic consumption of commodities which have great export potential so as to make surpluses available for exports. Make exporters cost and quality conscious.

lxx

5.3 PROSPECTS OF BIMSTEC

Any kind of cooperation needs goodwill. We sometimes tend to forget that. On the other hand, goodwill is merely a necessary but not a sufficient condition. Meaningful and lasting economic cooperation between nations must be based on economic considerations and national interests rather than on goodwill alone. This applies to cooperation amongst BIMSTEC member countries. Stronger India-BIMSTEC bilateral relations would also mean a more stable and prosperous Asia. Moreover, the BIMSTEC region has a wide range of products developed through the traditional expertise prevailed in the region. These products have high value in the international markets provided they meet the quality standards. Thailand is the only country in the region that have actually developed a strategy to market these products and develop the region. This can be carried out in other countries like India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka etc. since all of them have a strong handicrafts sector. BIMSTEC has been a very insignificant player in the world trade. Its share in total world trade is minuscule as compared to other bloc in this region. BIMSTEC is one of the new entrants in the bandwagon of regional economic forum of this region. It we first formed in June 1997 and got expanded in December 1997, which have five meeting so far. But before being a very vibrant economic bloc of this region, it has to get WTO legitimacy. BIMSTEC is a cross-sub regional bloc, links South Asia with Southeast Asia. BIMSTEC FTA ensures a converging date with ASEAN LDCs and SAARC members. This will eventually help countries to reduce MFN tariff rates. The entire region expectedly will come out as a free trade area after 2016 significantly and after 2020 completely. However, issues related to non-tariff barrier need to be sorted out. Ideas can be drawn from ASEAN exercises. Trade Facilitation also requires serious attention. Agreement on Services in BIMSTEC can lead the similar issues in SAARC and it can accommodate same mechanism.

lxxi

5.4 SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE ACTIONS FOR BETTER TRADE RELATIONS AMONG ALL BIMSTEC COUNTRIES
Most BIMSTEC members need to concomitantly pursue domestic reforms to improve upon their growth prospects, and on mindsets which is conducive to emerging as net winners from the globalization process. They should not focus their energies only on the FTAs, which at best lead to partial liberalization and to limited welfare gains in the external sector of these economies in the short run. There is hardly any doubt that BIMSTEC countries have large economic potentialities. However, except Thailand, rest countries are at a very early stage of development trajectory, which is characterized by low level productivity and per capita income. Technical development is necessary in order to move these countries to the forward direction from their stagnant position. We have observed a close relation between economic development and agricultural productivity. BIMSTEC countries must improve their agricultural productivity. World has experienced a varied disparity among developed and developing countries in terms of agricultural productivity and per capita income. This disparity is largely due to choice of inappropriate technology. The sector which is most crucial for real development of BIMSTEC countries is agricultural sector. In order to provide necessary boost to the industry, developing countries have to generate surplus from the agricultural sector. Not only that, as a larger share of the labour force of these countries is engaged in agriculture, so to achieve sustainable development, this sector must have to be improved. Interestingly, in spite of having low agricultural productivity, for example BIMSTEC countries are relatively specialized in trading food product with Japan. Japan has shown an enormous development in agricultural productivity with mere use of technology. So, Japanese technology may be used to develop agriculture sector of BIMSTEC countries. However, at the present stage, direct Japanese investment in agriculture sector in BIMSTEC countries is not possible. At best, Japan may provide technical assistance to this sector.
lxxii

 In addition to application of newly invented technologies developing countries have good prospects to introduce technological innovations in all sectors of socioeconomic development. Necessary institutional arrangements should make to harness these benefits. There is a need to undertake a systematic research study to assess the experiences of transfer of technology and technology innovations. In the area of environmental management, BIMSTEC countries have many lessons to learn from Japan. Careful attention will need to be given to the exact nature of the reform, including the timing, the use of sensitive product categories and special treatment for LDCs. Furthermore, it is important to keep in mind the dynamic environment of the global market place. It is expected that the governments of the BIMSTEC countries, with lessons learned from other groupings like ASEAN, will take vigorous steps to remove the barriers standing in the way. BIMSTEC is endowed with relatively better natural resources but facing problems in the era of globalization. This underlines the importance of cooperation and collaboration. The BIMSTEC countries need to pursue domestic reforms to improve upon their growth prospects. Countries like Bangladesh, India and Myanmar adopted a close door policy in their early stages of development. Establishment of joint ventures among the entrepreneurs of these countries can help achieve this objective. In this respect, there is an immediate need for private and public sector collaboration within a multilateral framework. The high performers among the developing nations are those who are able to modify their sector according to the need. As all the BIMSTEC nations are developing countries, so they should modify their sector according to the need.

lxxiii

5.5 MAJOR POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS

Setting up of a Research and Policy Group to improve Trade Composition and Trade Imbalance between India and BIMSTEC nations. Strengthening Cooperation between the Chambers of Commerce and Industry Associations. Investments by Business Sector in Trade Points. Collaborative Research Study on Learning the Lessons from India on WTO Negotiations and Implementation of WTO Agreements. Increasing the scope of Joint Ventures. Setting up of R & D Facilities in BIMSTEC countries with Indian Assistance specifically for Quality Improvement, Designing, Innovation and Product Development. Constitution of a Joint Task Force for Simplification of Administrative Procedures.

5.6 WHAT A NEW BIMSTEC SHOULD DO?

Collaboration in BIMSTEC could improve trade relations. Some suggestions are as follow. Strengthening the export-import management capacities among member countries Capacity building in use of WTO provision and further negotiation Better resource utilization through followings A. Reduction of post harvest losses B. Quality control C. Human resource development D. Increasing value added from fisheries catches E. Collaboration for trade negotiations on Tariff rate Non-tariff measures Use of subsidies

lxxiv

5.7 SCOPE FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

In the present research work, an attempt has been made by the researcher to study the India and BIMSTEC: An Analysis of Indias Trade Performance and Prospects. Researcher analyzed trade performance of all BIMSTEC nations for last eighteen years. Study period was from the year 1991 to 2008. Following are the scope of further research as: There is a scope for further research by extended the study period. Researcher studied only the direction of trade of all BIMSTEC nations. So there is a wide scope of further research by taking second emerging area of foreign trade i.e. composition of trade. Researcher could not incorporate the views and opinions of the business communities and civil society on the sphere of Indo-BIMSTEC trade related issues. So, there is a scope for further research by collecting views of these parties. Presently researches about BIMSTEC in India are like a drop in the ocean. So there is a wide scope of further research in this topic.

lxxv

anNexures

lxxvi

BIBLIOGRAPHY Books
Future Directions of BIMSTEC: Towards a Bay of Bengal Economic Community, RIS, New Delhi, 2004 Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System, Institute of International Economics, Washington,2007

Research papers/Articles
Khan, Mohsin S. and Knight, D. M., Import compression and export performance in developing countries, The Review of Economics and Statistics, CSIRD#20,1988 Mukul G. Asher Indias Rising Role in Asia RIS DP#121,2007 Nagesh Kumar, Liberalization, Foreign Direct Investment Flows and Economic Development: The Indian Experience in the 1990s, DP# 65, 2003 Yogendra Singh, BIMSTEC: Need to Move Beyond the Linkage Syndrome, Southeast Asia Articles #2753, 15 December 2008

Websites:

http://bimstec.org www.commerce.nic.in www.bntt.org www.dgciskol.nic.in www.csird.org www.imf.org www.cmie.org www.indiastat.com

lxxvii

TOTAL INTRA BIMSTEC TRADE OF BIMSTEC COUNTRIES FROM 1991 TO 2008

YEAR EXPORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 50.48 83.93 113.29 153.24 199.01 611.83 1867.42 1881.66 1909.28 2362.23 2730.02 3639.52 4776.72 5123.49 5987.83 7169.71 9300.37 9204.10 IMPORT 123.64 195.84 255.27 393.18 503.70 577.91 654.63 730.11 850.29 1041.94 1348.36 1293.75 1879.50 2699.74 3101.04 3959.88 4888.08 5079.98 INDIA

TOTAL TRADE 174.12 279.77 368.56 546.42 702.71 1189.74 2522.05 2611.77 2759.57 3404.17 4078.38 4933.27 6656.22 7823.23 9088.87 11129.59 14188.45 14284.08

TRADE BALANCE -73.16 -111.91 -141.98 -239.94 -304.69 33.92 1212.79 1151.55 1058.99 1320.29 1381.66 2345.77 2897.22 2423.75 2886.79 3209.83 4412.29 4124.12

EXPORT 265.01 238.03 268.89 450.88 554.02 688.46 682.17 727.59 827.8 908.96 1093.99 970.79 1458.66 2108.7 2,791.13 3,832.88 5,031.40 5053.96

THAILAND IMPORT TOTAL 95.4 128.31 172.6 204.78 128.04 167.23 498.02 476.16 638.42 829.7 844.74 919.43 1014.31 1097.64 1,271.60 1,715.17 2,066.23 1689.32

SRILANKA

TRADE 95.4 128.31 172.6 204.78 128.04 167.23 498.02 476.16 638.42 829.7 844.74 919.43 1014.31 1097.64 1,271.60 1,715.17 2,066.23 1,689.32

TRADE BALANCE 169.61 109.72 96.29 246.1 425.98 521.23 184.15 251.43 189.38 79.26 249.25 51.36 444.35 1011.06 1,519.53 2,117.71 2,965.17 3,364.64

EXPORT 45.15 48.09 85.94 87.65 99.85 117.92 128.81 158.2 200.65 275.31 249.29 281.55 364.94 553.38 720.87 660.86 829.72 463.25

IMPORT 63.52 83.21 90.77 199.91 215.57 273.05 750.38 745.51 850.39 1015.55 1093.41 1331.2 1,967.96 2,332.87 3,293.69 4,039.62 5,210.50 4649.34

TOTAL TRADE 108.67 131.3 176.71 287.56 315.42 390.97 879.19 903.71 1051.04 1290.86 1342.7 1612.75 2332.9 2886.25 4,014.56 4,700.48 6,040.22 5,112.59

TRADE BALANCE -18.37 -35.12 -4.83 -112.26 -115.72 -155.13 -621.57 -587.31 -649.74 -740.24 -844.12 -1049.65 -1603.02 -1779.49 -2,572.82 -3,378.76 -4,380.78 -4,186.09

BANGLADESH EXPORT IMPORT 34.01 53.47 66.99 106.13 107.66 107.71 94.85 91.52 110.54 123.07 82.51 81.4 101.18 91.69 176.81 293.95 303.93 315.63 219.6 173.22 214.21 224.98 336.49 364.59 988.88 1157.56 811.28 1142.25 1,219.48 1,378.52 1,967.97 1,967.15 1,982.95 1,961.60 3,271.78 2359.76

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. CMIE

YEAR

BANGLADESH

NEPAL EXPORT 77.29 99.59 113.13 160.2 87.17 136.05 169.38 203.39 235.83 335.75 398.01 313.70 311.35 374.27 448.43 396.52 706.38 485.82 IMPORT 191.59 139.95 177.01 160.54 247.15 301.5 375.37 286.13 317.04 344.55 430.79 543.75 883.82 1,082.32 1,195.53 1,256.69 1,876.53 1584.02

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

TOTAL TRADE 253.61 226.69 281.2 331.11 444.15 472.3 1083.73 1249.08 921.82 1265.32 1301.99 1459.92 2069.15 2058.84 2,159.76 2,255.55 3,575.71 2,675.39

TRADE BALANCE -185.59 -119.75 -147.22 -118.85 -228.83 -256.88 -894.03 -1066.04 -700.74 -1019.18 -1136.97 -1297.12 -1866.79 -1875.46 -1,806.14 -1,667.65 -2,967.85 -2,044.13

TOTAL TRADE 268.88 239.54 290.14 320.74 334.32 437.55 544.75 489.52 552.87 680.3 828.8 857.45 1195.17 1456.59 1,643.96 1,653.21 2,582.91 2,069.84

TRADE BALANCE -114.3 -40.36 -63.88 -0.34 -159.98 -165.45 -205.99 -82.74 -81.21 -8.8 -32.78 -230.05 -572.47 -708.05 -747.10 -860.17 -1,170.15 -1,098.20

EXPOR T 234.73 240.19 293.91 296.33 409.42 483.02 464.51 386.75 415.79 515.8 713.70 695.94 767.20 871.40 939.71 1,261.62 1,303.15 1203.18

MYANMAR IMPORT TOTAL 42.22 47.5 54.88 67 35.45 62.83 118.41 81.42 73.85 124.57 113.00 113.36 136.96 170.99 189.59 211.00 282.42 265.68

TRADE 276.95 287.69 348.79 363.33 444.87 545.85 582.92 468.17 489.64 640.37 826.7 809.3 904.16 1042.39 1,129.30 1,472.62 1,585.57 1,468.86

TRADE BALANCE 192.51 192.69 239.03 229.33 373.97 420.19 346.1 305.33 341.94 391.23 600.7 582.58 630.24 700.41 750.12 1,050.62 1,020.73 937.50

EXPORT 17.78 11.59 16.89 8.93 19.08 32.37 49.71 47.25 46.53 64.14 68.75 64.95 94.98 126.53 148.05 182.19 273.13 199.85

BHUTAN IMPORT TOTAL 14.51 8.45 20.78 30.62 28.65 37.93 68.71 86.79 98.62 146.56 151.42 214.72 242.65 238.85 223.75 228.25 256.85 266.55

TRADE 32.29 20.04 37.67 39.55 47.73 70.3 118.42 134.04 145.15 210.7 220.17 279.67 337.63 365.38 371.80 410.44 529.98 466.40

TRADE BALANCE 3.27 3.14 -3.89 -21.69 -9.57 -5.56 -19 -39.54 -52.09 -82.42 -82.67 -149.77 -147.67 -112.32 -75.70 -46.06 16.28 -66.70

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. CMIE

INDIAS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008
THAILAND YEAR 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 EXPORT 13.98 20.98 31.94 36.47 45.19 45.34 342.90 321.00 449.59 530.12 633.13 711.20 831.68 901.39 1,075.31 1,443.22 1,808.79 1441.31 IMPORT 34.15 48.25 51.26 153.94 162.18 200.00 226.57 273.11 326.02 337.92 423.09 379.00 609.05 865.88 1,211.58 1,744.25 2,302.13 2066.13 SRILANKA BANGLADESH

TOTAL TRADE 48.13 69.23 83.2 190.41 207.37 245.34 569.47 594.11 775.61 868.04 1056.22 1090.2 1440.73 1767.27 2,286.89 3,187.47 4,110.92
3507.44

TRADE BALANCE -20.17 -27.27 -19.32 -117.47 -116.99 -154.66 116.33 47.89 123.57 192.2 210.04 332.2 222.63 35.51 -136.27 -301.03 -493.34
-624.82

EXPORT 12.26 20.52 25.80 32.88 38.39 48.42 489.23 437.13 499.27 640.14 630.89 920.98 1,319.20 1,413.18 2,024.67 2,253.82 2,826.54 2007.39

IMPORT 8.06 11.38 17.96 27.56 39.52 45.80 30.21 37.68 44.23 45.01 67.38 90.83 194.74 378.40 577.70 470.26 631.42 262.33

TOTAL TRADE 20.32 31.9 43.76 60.44 77.91 94.22 519.44 474.81 543.5 685.15 698.27 1,011.81 1,513.94 1,791.58 2,602.37 2,724.08 3,457.96
2269.72

TRADE BALANCE 4.2 9.14 7.84 5.32 -1.13 2.62 459.02 399.45 455.04 595.13 563.51 830.15 1,124.46 1,034.78 1,446.97 1,783.56 2,195.12
1745.06

EXPORT 22.81 29.40 38.55 57.83 100.25 88.13 786.46 995.64 636.31 935.04 1,002.18 1,176.00 1,740.74 1,631.12 1,664.36 1,626.58 2,918.22 1997.96

IMPORT 4.01 10.06 16.02 34.24 82.06 63.11 50.81 62.40 78.15 80.51 59.12 62.05 77.63 59.37 127.03 228.31 257.12 262.45

TOTAL TRADE 26.82 39.46 54.57 92.07 182.31 151.24 837.27 1058.04 714.46 1015.55 1,061.30 1,238.05 1,818.37 1,690.49 1,791.39 1,854.89 3,175.34
2260.41

TRADE BALANCE 18.8 19.34 22.53 23.59 18.19 25.02 735.65 933.24 558.16 854.53 943.06 1,113.95 1,663.11 1,571.75 1,537.33 1,398.27 2,661.10
1735.51

Source: 1. EXIM DATA BANK, Ministry of Commerce, INDIA 2. Indiastat.com

NEPAL YEAR 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 EXPORT 5.43 5.99 8.79 10.77 15.29 16.80 170.05 122.41 151.23 140.84 214.46 350.36 669.35 743.14 859.97 927.77 1,506.79 IMPORT 20.1 20.48 25.90 32.82 46.97 64.98 95.16 144.85 188.63 255.08 355.94 281.76 286.04 345.83 379.85 305.73 628.03 411.51

MYANMAR

BHUTAN

TOTAL TRADE 25.53 26.47 34.69 43.59 62.26 81.78 265.21 267.26 339.86 395.92 570.40 632.12 955.39 1,088.97 1,239.82 1,233.50 2,134.82
1613.74

TRADE BALANCE -14.67 -14.49 -17.11 -22.05 -31.68 -48.18 74.89 -22.44 -37.4 -114.24 -141.48 68.60 383.31 397.31 480.12 622.04 878.76
790.72

EXPORT _ _ _ _ _ _ 49.31 30.12 34.10 52.71 60.89 75.07 89.64 113.19 110.70 139.95 185.43 173.28

IMPORT 35.89 95.76 108.46 113.72 155.16 183.26 224.01 173.76 171.59 181.69 374.43 336.04 409.01 405.91 525.96 781.93 809.94 688.59

TOTAL TRADE 35.89 95.76 108.46 113.72 155.16 183.26 273.32 203.88 205.69 234.4 435.32 411.11 498.65 519.10 636.66 921.88 995.37
861.87

TRADE BALANCE -35.89 -95.76 -108.46 -113.72 -155.16 -183.26 -174.7 -143.64 -137.49 -128.98 -313.54 -260.97 -319.37 -292.72 -415.26 -641.98 -624.51
-515.31

EXPORT _ _ _ _ _ _ 13.33 9.56 7.57 1.08 7.60 39.05 89.49 84.58 99.17 57.46 86.69 80.92

IMPORT _ _ _ _ _ _ 13.44 6.13 18.01 21.09 23.92 32.15 52.37 71.00 88.77 141.33 194.48 119.10

TOTAL TRADE _ _ _ _ _ _ 26.77 15.69 25.58 22.17 31.52 71.2 141.86 155.58 187.94 198.79 281.17
200.02

TRADE BALANCE _ _ _ _ _ _ -0.11 3.43 -10.44 -20.01 -16.32 6.90 37.12 13.58 10.40 -83.87 -107.79
-38.18

1202.23

Source: 1. EXIM DATA BANK, Ministry of Commerce, INDIA 2. Indiastat.com

THAILANDS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008
YEAR EXPORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 34.15 48.25 51.26 153.94 162.18 200.00 226.57 273.11 326.02 337.92 423.09 379.00 609.05 865.88 1,211.58 1,744.25 2,302.13 2066.13 IMPORT 13.98 20.98 31.94 36.47 45.19 45.34 342.90 321.00 449.59 530.12 633.13 711.20 831.68 901.39 1,075.31 1,443.22 1,808.79 1441.31 INDIA

TOTAL TRADE 48.13 69.23 83.2 190.41 207.37 245.34 569.47 594.11 775.61 868.04 1056.22 1090.2 1440.73 1767.27 2,286.89 3,187.47 4,110.92 3,507.44

TRADE BALANCE 20.17 27.27 19.32 117.47 116.99 154.66 -116.33 -47.89 -123.57 -192.2 -210.04 -332.2 -222.63 -35.51 136.27 301.03 493.34 624.82

EXPORT 34.15 48.25 51.26 153.94 162.18 200.00 226.57 273.11 326.02 337.92 423.09 379.00 609.05 865.88 1,211.58 1,744.25 2,302.13 2556.98

SRILANKA IMPORT TOTAL 16.14 27.98 41.63 30.52 24.61 25.92 36.61 40.51 58.35 79.38 36.88 14.16 11.54 19.41 21.54 23.65 40.21 26.29

TRADE 50.29 76.23 92.89 184.46 186.79 225.92 263.18 313.62 384.37 417.3 459.97 393.16 620.59 885.29 1,233.12 1,767.90 2,342.34 2,583.27

TRADE BALANCE 18.01 20.27 9.63 123.42 137.57 174.08 189.96 232.6 267.67 258.54 386.21 364.84 597.51 846.47 1,190.04 1,720.60 2,261.92 2530.69

EXPORT 170.05 122.41 151.23 140.84 214.46 250.36 170.05 124.37 140.75 168.40 179.69 163.28 176.56 291.20 278.56 292.45 302.21 311.32

BANGLADESH IMPORT TOTAL 25.92 36.61 40.51 58.35 17.16 31.91 33.07 19.42 18.68 37.17 16.73 11.12 9.95 12.52 27.98 41.63 30.52 24.61

TRADE 195.97 159.02 191.74 199.19 231.62 282.27 203.12 143.79 159.43 205.57 196.42 174.4 186.51 303.72 306.54 334.08 332.73 335.93

TRADE BALANCE 144.13 85.8 110.72 82.49 197.3 218.45 136.98 104.95 122.07 131.23 162.96 152.16 166.61 278.68 250.58 250.82 271.69 286.71

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. http://www.nso.go.th

YEAR EXPORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 13.33 9.56 7.57 1.08 7.60 19.05 29.49 28.30 17.16 31.91 33.07 24.05 30.81 41.05 42.53 23.56 59.85 58.03

NEPAL IMPORT TOTAL 25.92 36.61 40.51 58.35 17.16 31.91 33.07 19.42 18.68 37.17 16.73 11.12 9.95 12.52 27.98 41.63 30.52 24.61

TRADE 39.25 46.17 48.08 59.43 24.76 50.96 62.56 47.72 35.84 69.08 49.8 35.17 40.76 53.57 70.51 65.19 90.37 82.64

TRADE BALANCE -12.59 -27.05 -32.94 -57.27 -9.56 -12.86 -3.58 8.88 -1.52 -5.26 16.34 12.93 20.86 28.53 14.55 -18.07 90.37 82.64

EXPORT 13.33 9.56 7.57 1.08 7.60 19.05 29.49 28.30 17.16 31.91 33.07 24.05 30.81 41.05 42.53 23.56 59.85 58.03

MYANMAR IMPORT TOTAL 13.44 6.13 18.01 21.09 23.92 32.15 52.37 71.00 88.77 141.33 136.20 168.53 147.35 145.73 113.76 157.59 148.95 162.85

TRADE 26.77 15.69 25.58 22.17 31.52 51.2 81.86 99.3 105.93 173.24 169.27 192.58 178.16 186.78 156.29 181.15 208.8 220.88

TRADE BALANCE -0.11 3.43 -10.44 -20.01 -16.32 -13.1 -22.88 -42.7 -71.61 -109.42 -103.13 -144.48 -116.54 -104.68 -71.23 -134.03 -89.1 -104.82

EXPORT .40 .69 .90 1.98 1.41 2.38 3.64 4.35 4.81 5.23 3.47

BHUTAN IMPORT TOTAL 4.81 4.35 4.53 5.07 3.30 3.84 6.07 5.03 7.45 7.24 9.65

TRADE 5.21 5.04 5.43 7.05 4.71 6.22 9.71 9.38 12.26 12.47 13.12

TRADE BALANCE -4.41 -3.66 -3.63 -3.09 -1.89 -1.46 -2.43 -0.68 -2.64 -2.01 -6.18

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. http://www.nso.go.th/

SRILANKAS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008
YEAR EXPORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 8.06 11.38 17.96 27.56 39.52 45.80 30.21 37.68 44.23 45.01 67.38 90.83 194.74 378.40 577.70 470.26 631.42 262.33 IMPORT 12.26 20.52 25.80 32.88 38.39 48.42 489.23 437.13 499.27 640.14 630.89 920.98 1,319.20 1,413.18 2,024.67 2,253.82 2,826.54 2007.39 INDIA

TOTAL TRADE 20.32 31.9 43.76 60.44 77.91 94.22 519.44 474.81 543.5 685.15 698.27 1,011.81 1,513.94 1,791.58 2,602.37 2,724.08 3,457.96
2269.72

TRADE BALANCE -4.2 -9.14 -7.84 -5.32 1.13 -2.62 -459.02 -399.45 -455.04 -595.13 -563.51 -830.15 -1,124.46 -1,034.78 -1,446.97 -1,783.56 -2,195.12
-1745.06

EXPORT 16.14 27.98 41.63 30.52 24.61 25.92 36.61 40.51 58.35 79.38 36.88 14.16 11.54 19.41 21.54 23.65 40.21 26.29

THAILAND IMPORT TOTAL 34.15 48.25 51.26 153.94 162.18 200.00 226.57 273.11 326.02 337.92 423.09 379.00 609.05 865.88 1,211.58 1,744.25 2,302.13 2556.98

TRADE 50.29 76.23 92.89 184.46 186.79 225.92 263.18 313.62 384.37 417.3 459.97 393.16 620.59 885.29 1,233.12 1,767.90 2,342.34 2,583.27

TRADE BALANCE -18.01 -20.27 -9.63 -123.42 -137.57 -174.08 -189.96 -232.6 -267.67 -258.54 -386.21 -364.84 -597.51 -846.47 -1,190.04 -1,720.60 -2,261.92 -2530.69

EXPORT 5.24 1.32 1.95 3.91 2.98 4.59 6.35 6.28 7.15 8.27 7.87 6.79 9.24 9.32 6.20 8.53 7.35 5.73

BANGLADESH IMPORT TOTAL 2.94 3.98 4.95 5.38 4.36 2.14 3.45 1.07 6.53 2.47 2.04 1.94 5.80 9.68 7.57 10.08 7.60 13.05

TRADE 8.18 5.3 6.9 9.29 7.34 6.73 9.8 7.35 13.68 10.74 9.91 8.73 15.04 19 13.77 18.61 14.95 18.78

TRADE BALANCE 2.3 -2.66 -3 -1.47 -1.38 2.45 2.9 5.21 0.62 5.8 5.83 4.85 3.44 -0.36 -1.37 -1.55 -0.25 -7.32

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. http://www.statistics.gov.lk/

YEAR EXPORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2.26 0.52 5.80 2.88 8.39 8.42 2.26 2.20 1.83 .88 .37 .97 1.83 .31 1.27 0.14 0.89 0.98

NEPAL IMPORT TOTAL 0.53 0.78 1.09 3.92 2.15 2.37 1.00 4.90 .58 1.91 3.07 4.05 0.81 1.05 2.53 3.56 9.85 11.91

TRADE 2.79 1.3 6.89 6.8 10.54 10.79 3.26 7.1 2.41 2.79 3.44 5.02 2.64 1.36 3.8 3.7 10.74 12.89

TRADE BALANCE 1.73 -0.26 4.71 -1.04 6.24 6.05 1.26 -2.7 1.25 -1.03 -2.7 -3.08 1.02 -0.74 -1.26 -3.42 -8.96 -10.93

EXPORT 0.31 0.12 0.10 2.71 0.89 1.07 0.64 1.00 .83 1.20 1.25 1.18 2.29 2.03 4.81 4.35 4.53 5.07

MYANMAR IMPORT TOTAL 0.01 0.76 0.59 1.69 0.43 1.04 1.01 .53 .32 .44 .59 .27 .24 .21 .40 .69 .90 1.98

TRADE 0.32 0.88 0.69 4.4 1.32 2.11 1.65 1.53 1.15 1.64 1.84 1.45 2.53 2.24 5.21 5.04 5.43 7.05

TRADE BALANCE 0.3 -0.64 -0.49 1.02 0.46 0.03 -0.37 0.47 0.51 0.76 0.66 0.91 2.05 1.82 4.41 3.66 3.63 3.09

EXPORT 13.44 6.13 18.01 21.09 23.92 32.15 52.37 71.00 88.77 141.33 136.20 168.53 147.35 145.73 113.76 157.59 148.95 162.85

BHUTAN IMPORT TOTAL 13.33 9.56 7.57 1.08 7.60 19.05 29.49 28.30 17.16 31.91 33.07 24.05 30.81 41.05 42.53 23.56 59.85 58.03

TRADE 26.77 15.69 25.58 22.17 31.52 51.2 81.86 99.3 105.93 173.24 169.27 192.58 178.16 186.78 156.29 181.15 208.8 220.88

TRADE BALANCE 0.11 -3.43 10.44 20.01 16.32 13.1 22.88 42.7 71.61 109.42 103.13 144.48 116.54 104.68 71.23 134.03 89.1 104.82

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. http://www.statistics.gov.lk/

BANGLADESHS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008
YEAR EXPORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 4.01 10.06 16.02 34.24 82.06 63.11 50.81 62.40 78.15 80.51 59.12 62.05 77.63 59.37 127.03 228.31 257.12 262.45 IMPORT 22.81 29.40 38.55 57.83 100.25 88.13 786.46 995.64 636.31 935.04 1,002.18 1,176.00 1,740.74 1,631.12 1,664.36 1,626.58 2,918.22 1997.96 INDIA

TOTAL TRADE 26.82 39.46 54.57 92.07 182.31 151.24 837.27 1058.04 714.46 1015.55 1,061.30 1,238.05 1,818.37 1,690.49 1,791.39 1,854.89 3,175.34
2260.41

TRADE BALANCE -18.8 -19.34 -22.53 -23.59 -18.19 -25.02 -735.65 -933.24 -558.16 -854.53 -943.06 -1,113.95 -1,663.11 -1,571.75 -1,537.33 -1,398.27 -2,661.10
-1735.51

EXPORT 25.92 36.61 40.51 58.35 17.16 31.91 33.07 19.42 18.68 37.17 16.73 11.12 9.95 12.52 27.98 41.63 30.52 24.61

THAILAND IMPORT TOTAL 170.05 122.41 151.23 140.84 214.46 250.36 170.05 124.37 140.75 168.40 179.69 163.28 176.56 291.20 278.56 292.45 302.21 311.32

TRADE 195.97 159.02 191.74 199.19 231.62 282.27 203.12 143.79 159.43 205.57 196.42 174.4 186.51 303.72 306.54 334.08 332.73 335.93

TRADE BALANCE -144.13 -85.8 -110.72 -82.49 -197.3 -218.45 -136.98 -104.95 -122.07 -131.23 -162.96 -152.16 -166.61 -278.68 -250.58 -250.82 -271.69 -286.71

EXPORT 2.94 3.98 4.95 5.38 4.36 2.14 3.45 1.07 6.53 2.47 2.04 1.94 5.80 9.68 7.57 10.08 7.60 13.05

SRILANKA IMPORT TOTAL 5.24 1.32 1.95 3.91 2.98 4.59 6.35 6.28 7.15 8.27 7.87 6.79 9.24 9.32 6.20 8.53 7.35 5.73

TRADE 8.18 5.3 6.9 9.29 7.34 6.73 9.8 7.35 13.68 10.74 9.91 8.73 15.04 19 13.77 18.61 14.95 18.78

TRADE BALANCE -2.3 2.66 3 1.47 1.38 -2.45 -2.9 -5.21 -0.62 -5.8 -5.83 -4.85 -3.44 0.36 1.37 1.55 0.25 7.32

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. CMIE,

YEAR EXPORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.21 1.35 3.52 2.26 0.52 5.80 2.88 7.85 5.24 1.32 1.95 3.91 2.98 4.59 8.39 8.42 2.26 6.39

NEPAL IMPORT TOTAL 4.81 4.35 4.53 5.07 3.30 3.84 6.07 14.27 8.94 3.98 4.95 5.38 4.36 2.14 9.69 3.28 6.56 11.20

TRADE 5.02 5.7 8.05 7.33 3.82 9.64 8.95 22.12 14.18 5.3 6.9 9.29 7.34 6.73 18.08 11.7 8.82 17.59

TRADE BALANCE -4.6 -3 -1.01 -2.81 -2.78 1.96 -3.19 -6.42 -3.7 -2.66 -3 -1.47 -1.38 2.45 -1.3 5.14 -4.3 -4.81

EXPORT .40 .69 .90 1.98 1.41 2.38 3.64 .38 1.25 .70 .69 .97 2.44 1.89 2.30 1.37 1.20 3.71

MYANMAR IMPORT TOTAL 14.81 14.35 14.53 15.07 13.30 13.84 16.07 12.19 13.78 22.03 19.72 23.77 33.23 27.30 18.5 25.4 31.3 26.53

TRADE 15.21 15.04 15.43 17.05 14.71 16.22 19.71 12.57 15.03 22.73 20.41 24.74 35.67 29.19 20.8 26.77 32.5 30.24

TRADE BALANCE -14.41 -13.66 -13.63 -13.09 -11.89 -11.46 -12.43 -11.81 -12.53 -21.33 -19.03 -22.8 -30.79 -25.41 -16.2 -24.03 -30.1 -22.82

EXPORT 0.53 0.78 1.09 3.92 2.15 2.37 1.00 .40 .69 .90 1.98 1.41 2.38 3.64 3.54 4.14 5.23 5.42

BHUTAN IMPORT TOTAL 1.88 1.39 3.42 2.26 2.20 3.83 3.88 4.81 4.35 4.53 5.07 3.30 3.84 6.07 5.64 5.36 6.14 7.02

TRADE 2.41 2.17 4.51 6.18 4.35 6.2 4.88 5.21 5.04 5.43 7.05 4.71 6.22 9.71 9.18 9.5 11.37 12.44

TRADE BALANCE -1.35 -0.61 -2.33 1.66 -0.05 -1.46 -2.88 -4.41 -3.66 -3.63 -3.09 -1.89 -1.46 -2.43 -2.1 -1.22 -0.91 -1.6

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. CMIE

NEPALS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008
YEAR EXPORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20.1 20.48 25.90 32.82 46.97 64.98 95.16 144.85 188.63 255.08 355.94 281.76 286.04 345.83 379.85 305.73 628.03 411.51 IMPORT 5.43 5.99 8.79 10.77 15.29 16.80 170.05 122.41 151.23 140.84 214.46 350.36 669.35 743.14 859.97 927.77 1,506.79 1202.23 INDIA

TOTAL TRADE 25.53 26.47 34.69 43.59 62.26 81.78 265.21 267.26 339.86 395.92 570.40 632.12 955.39 1,088.97 1,239.82 1,233.50 2,134.82
1613.74

TRADE BALANCE 14.67 14.49 17.11 22.05 31.68 48.18 -74.89 22.44 37.4 114.24 141.48 -68.60 -383.31 -397.31 -480.12 -622.04 -878.76
-790.72

EXPORT 25.92 36.61 40.51 58.35 17.16 31.91 33.07 19.42 18.68 37.17 16.73 11.12 9.95 12.52 27.98 41.63 30.52 24.61

THAILAND IMPORT TOTAL 13.33 9.56 7.57 1.08 7.60 19.05 29.49 28.30 17.16 31.91 33.07 24.05 30.81 41.05 42.53 23.56 59.85 58.03

TRADE 39.25 46.17 48.08 59.43 24.76 50.96 62.56 47.72 35.84 69.08 49.8 35.17 40.76 53.57 70.51 65.19 90.37 82.64

TRADE BALANCE 12.59 27.05 32.94 57.27 9.56 12.86 3.58 -8.88 1.52 5.26 -16.34 -12.93 -20.86 -28.53 -14.55 18.07 -90.37 -82.64

EXPORT 0.53 0.78 1.09 3.92 2.15 2.37 1.00 4.90 .58 1.91 3.07 4.05 0.81 1.05 2.53 3.56 9.85 11.91

SRILANKA IMPORT TOTAL 2.26 0.52 5.80 2.88 8.39 8.42 2.26 2.20 1.83 .88 .37 .97 1.83 .31 1.27 0.14 0.89 0.98

TRADE 2.79 1.3 6.89 6.8 10.54 10.79 3.26 7.1 2.41 2.79 3.44 5.02 2.64 1.36 3.8 3.7 10.74 12.89

TRADE BALANCE -1.73 0.26 -4.71 1.04 -6.24 -6.05 -1.26 2.7 -1.25 1.03 2.7 3.08 -1.02 0.74 1.26 3.42 8.96 10.93

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. CMIE,

YEAR EXPORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 4.81 4.35 4.53 5.07 3.30 3.84 6.07 14.27 8.94 3.98 4.95 5.38 4.36 2.14 9.69 3.28 6.56 11.20

BANGLADESH IMPORT TOTAL 0.21 1.35 3.52 2.26 0.52 5.80 2.88 7.85 5.24 1.32 1.95 3.91 2.98 4.59 8.39 8.42 2.26 6.39

TRADE 5.02 5.7 8.05 7.33 3.82 9.64 8.95 22.12 14.18 5.3 6.9 9.29 7.34 6.73 18.08 11.7 8.82 17.59

TRADE BALANCE 4.6 3 1.01 2.81 2.78 -1.96 3.19 6.42 3.7 2.66 3 1.47 1.38 -2.45 1.3 -5.14 4.3 4.81

EXPORT 25.92 36.61 40.51 58.35 17.16 31.91 33.07 19.42 18.68 37.17 16.73 11.12 9.95 12.52 27.98 41.63 30.52 24.61

MYANMAR IMPORT TOTAL 170.05 122.41 151.23 140.84 214.46 250.36 170.05 124.37 140.75 168.40 179.69 163.28 176.56 291.20 278.56 292.45 302.21 311.32

TRADE 195.97 159.02 191.74 199.19 231.62 282.27 203.12 143.79 159.43 205.57 196.42 174.4 186.51 303.72 306.54 334.08 332.73 335.93

TRADE BALANCE -144.13 -85.8 -110.72 -82.49 -197.3 -218.45 -136.98 -104.95 -122.07 -131.23 -162.96 -152.16 -166.61 -278.68 -250.58 -250.82 -271.69 -286.71

EXPORT 0.01 0.76 0.59 1.69 0.43 1.04 1.01 .53 .32 .44 .59 .27 .24 .21 .40 .69 .90 1.98

BHUTAN IMPORT TOTAL 0.31 0.12 0.10 2.71 0.89 1.07 0.64 1.00 .83 1.20 1.25 1.18 2.29 2.03 4.81 4.35 4.53 5.07

TRADE 0.32 0.88 0.69 4.4 1.32 2.11 1.65 1.53 1.15 1.64 1.84 1.45 2.53 2.24 5.21 5.04 5.43 7.05

TRADE BALANCE -0.3 0.64 0.49 -1.02 -0.46 -0.03 0.37 -0.47 -0.51 -0.76 -0.66 -0.91 -2.05 -1.82 -4.41 -3.66 -3.63 -3.09

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. CMIE,

MYANMARS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008
INDIA YEAR 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 EXPORT 35.89 95.76 108.46 113.72 155.16 183.26 224.01 173.76 171.59 181.69 374.43 336.04 409.01 405.91 525.96 781.93 809.94 688.59 IMPORT _ _ _ _ _ _ 49.31 30.12 34.10 52.71 60.89 75.07 89.64 113.19 110.70 139.95 185.43 173.28 THAILAND SRILANKA

TOTAL TRADE 35.89 95.76 108.46 113.72 155.16 183.26 273.32 203.88 205.69 234.4 435.32 411.11 498.65 519.10 636.66 921.88 995.37
861.87

TRADE BALANCE 35.89 95.76 108.46 113.72 155.16 183.26 174.7 143.64 137.49 128.98 313.54 260.97 319.37 292.72 415.26 641.98 624.51
515.31

EXPORT 13.44 6.13 18.01 21.09 23.92 32.15 52.37 71.00 88.77 141.33 136.20 168.53 147.35 145.73 113.76 157.59 148.95 162.85

IMPORT 13.33 9.56 7.57 1.08 7.60 19.05 29.49 28.30 17.16 31.91 33.07 24.05 30.81 41.05 42.53 23.56 59.85 58.03

TOTAL TRADE 26.77 15.69 25.58 22.17 31.52 51.2 81.86 99.3 105.93 173.24 169.27 192.58 178.16 186.78 156.29 181.15 208.8 220.88

TRADE BALANCE 0.11 -3.43 10.44 20.01 16.32 13.1 22.88 42.7 71.61 109.42 103.13 144.48 116.54 104.68 71.23 134.03 89.1 104.82

EXPORT 0.01 0.76 0.59 1.69 0.43 1.04 1.01 .53 .32 .44 .59 .27 .24 .21 .40 .69 .90 1.98

IMPORT 0.31 0.12 0.10 2.71 0.89 1.07 0.64 1.00 .83 1.20 1.25 1.18 2.29 2.03 4.81 4.35 4.53 5.07

TOTAL TRADE 0.32 0.88 0.69 4.4 1.32 2.11 1.65 1.53 1.15 1.64 1.84 1.45 2.53 2.24 5.21 5.04 5.43 7.05

TRADE BALANCE -0.3 0.64 0.49 -1.02 -0.46 -0.03 0.37 -0.47 -0.51 -0.76 -0.66 -0.91 -2.05 -1.82 -4.41 -3.66 -3.63 -3.09

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. CMIE,

YEAR 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

EXPORT 14.81 14.35 14.53 15.07 13.30 13.84 16.07 12.19 13.78 22.03 19.72 23.77 33.23 27.30 18.5 25.4 31.3 26.53

BANGLADESH IMPORT TOTAL .40 .69 .90 1.98 1.41 2.38 3.64 .38 1.25 .70 .69 .97 2.44 1.89 2.30 1.37 1.20 3.71

NEPAL

TRADE 15.21 15.04 15.43 17.05 14.71 16.22 19.71 12.57 15.03 22.73 20.41 24.74 35.67 29.19 20.8 26.77 32.5 30.24

TRADE BALANCE 14.41 13.66 13.63 13.09 11.89 11.46 12.43 11.81 12.53 21.33 19.03 22.8 30.79 25.41 16.2 24.03 30.1 22.82

EXPORT 170.05 122.41 151.23 140.84 214.46 250.36 170.05 124.37 140.75 168.40 179.69 163.28 176.56 291.20 278.56 292.45 302.21 311.32

IMPORT 25.92 36.61 40.51 58.35 17.16 31.91 33.07 19.42 18.68 37.17 16.73 11.12 9.95 12.52 27.98 41.63 30.52 24.61

TOTAL TRADE 195.97 159.02 191.74 199.19 231.62 282.27 203.12 143.79 159.43 205.57 196.42 174.4 186.51 303.72 306.54 334.08 332.73 335.93

TRADE BALANCE 144.13 85.8 110.72 82.49 197.3 218.45 136.98 104.95 122.07 131.23 162.96 152.16 166.61 278.68 250.58 250.82 271.69 286.71

EXPORT 0.53 0.78 1.09 3.92 2.15 2.37 1.00 4.90 .58 1.91 3.07 4.05 0.81 1.05 2.53 3.56 9.85 11.91

BHUTAN IMPORT TOTAL 2.26 0.52 5.80 2.88 8.39 8.42 2.26 2.20 1.83 .88 .37 .97 1.83 .31 1.27 0.14 0.89 0.98

TRADE 2.79 1.3 6.89 6.8 10.54 10.79 3.26 7.1 2.41 2.79 3.44 5.02 2.64 1.36 3.8 3.7 10.74 12.89

TRADE BALANCE -1.73 0.26 -4.71 1.04 -6.24 -6.05 -1.26 2.7 -1.25 1.03 2.7 3.08 -1.02 0.74 1.26 3.42 8.96 10.93

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. CMIE,

BHUTANS EXPORT IMPORT DATA WITH BIMSTEC NATIONS FROM YEAR 1991 TO 2008
YEAR EXPORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 13.44 6.13 18.01 21.09 23.92 32.15 52.37 71.00 88.77 141.33 194.48 119.10 IMPORT 13.33 9.56 7.57 1.08 7.60 39.05 89.49 84.58 99.17 57.46 86.69 80.92 INDIA

TOTAL TRADE _ _ _ _ _ _ 26.77 15.69 25.58 22.17 31.52 71.2 141.86 155.58 187.94 198.79 281.17
200.02

TRADE BALANCE _ _ _ _ _ _ 0.11 -3.43 10.44 20.01 16.32 -6.90 -37.12 -13.58 -10.40 83.87 107.79
38.18

EXPORT 4.81 4.35 4.53 5.07 3.30 3.84 6.07 5.03 7.45 7.24 9.65

THAILAND IMPORT TOTAL .40 .69 .90 1.98 1.41 2.38 3.64 4.35 4.81 5.23 3.47

TRADE 5.21 5.04 5.43 7.05 4.71 6.22 9.71 9.38 12.26 12.47 13.12

TRADE BALANCE 4.41 3.66 3.63 3.09 1.89 1.46 2.43 0.68 2.64 2.01 6.18

EXPORT 13.33 9.56 7.57 1.08 7.60 19.05 29.49 28.30 17.16 31.91 33.07 24.05 30.81 41.05 42.53 23.56 59.85 58.03

SRILANKA IMPORT TOTAL 13.44 6.13 18.01 21.09 23.92 32.15 52.37 71.00 88.77 141.33 136.20 168.53 147.35 145.73 113.76 157.59 148.95 162.85

TRADE 26.77 15.69 25.58 22.17 31.52 51.2 81.86 99.3 105.93 173.24 169.27 192.58 178.16 186.78 156.29 181.15 208.8 220.88

TRADE BALANCE -0.11 3.43 -10.44 -20.01 -16.32 -13.1 -22.88 -42.7 -71.61 -109.42 -103.13 -144.48 -116.54 -104.68 -71.23 -134.03 -89.1 -104.82

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. CMIE,

YEAR EXPORT 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1.88 1.39 3.42 2.26 2.20 3.83 3.88 4.81 4.35 4.53 5.07 3.30 3.84 6.07 5.64 5.36 6.14 7.02

BANGLADESH IMPORT TOTAL 0.53 0.78 1.09 3.92 2.15 2.37 1.00 .40 .69 .90 1.98 1.41 2.38 3.64 3.54 4.14 5.23 5.42

TRADE 2.41 2.17 4.51 6.18 4.35 6.2 4.88 5.21 5.04 5.43 7.05 4.71 6.22 9.71 9.18 9.5 11.37 12.44

TRADE BALANCE 1.35 0.61 2.33 -1.66 0.05 1.46 2.88 4.41 3.66 3.63 3.09 1.89 1.46 2.43 2.1 1.22 0.91 1.6

EXPORT 0.31 0.12 0.10 2.71 0.89 1.07 0.64 1.00 .83 1.20 1.25 1.18 2.29 2.03 4.81 4.35 4.53 5.07

NEPAL IMPORT TOTAL 0.01 0.76 0.59 1.69 0.43 1.04 1.01 .53 .32 .44 .59 .27 .24 .21 .40 .69 .90 1.98

TRADE 0.32 0.88 0.69 4.4 1.32 2.11 1.65 1.53 1.15 1.64 1.84 1.45 2.53 2.24 5.21 5.04 5.43 7.05

TRADE BALANCE 0.3 -0.64 -0.49 1.02 0.46 0.03 -0.37 0.47 0.51 0.76 0.66 0.91 2.05 1.82 4.41 3.66 3.63 3.09

EXPORT 2.26 0.52 5.80 2.88 8.39 8.42 2.26 2.20 1.83 .88 .37 .97 1.83 .31 1.27 0.14 0.89 0.98

MYANMAR IMPORT TOTAL 0.53 0.78 1.09 3.92 2.15 2.37 1.00 4.90 .58 1.91 3.07 4.05 0.81 1.05 2.53 3.56 9.85 11.91

TRADE 2.79 1.3 6.89 6.8 10.54 10.79 3.26 7.1 2.41 2.79 3.44 5.02 2.64 1.36 3.8 3.7 10.74 12.89

TRADE BALANCE 1.73 -0.26 4.71 -1.04 6.24 6.05 1.26 -2.7 1.25 -1.03 -2.7 -3.08 1.02 -0.74 -1.26 -3.42 -8.96 -10.93

Source: 1. IMF Direction of Trade Year Book, 1997 & 2004 2. CMIE