THE ART OF WINNING WARS WITH ANALYTIC HIERARCHYCAL PROCESS (AHP) APPROACH

Tawi1
1

Computer Science

STMIK Eresha, Jakarta, 12740 Telp : (021) 7989705, Fax : (021) 7989314 E-mail : tawijakarta@gmail.com

Abstract
This essay will discuss mainly about technique to make decision in war fields for commander-inchief. The technique used in this essay is Analytic Hierarchycal Process (AHP). This essay is made because winning a war is a thing that we must do after we decide to participate in a war. Failure to win a war can consume our resources and the worse is we can get ourselves killed in a batte field. We cannot participate in a war just because we hate others. We must participate in a war with deep consideration. This is because war can consume human live and death people will not easily become alive again but hate can easily become love. Resources we spend to participate in a war will not come back to us easily after we spend it in a war.

Keywords: AHP, Wars, Resources, Troops

In our live, we probably can have not only smooth conditions but also bad conditions. We can achieve things we want to but plenty of time we fail to get the things we want to get. At the time we want to achieve a thing we can achieve it easily but some times plenty of the efforts involve conflicts not only psychological conflicts but also physical conflicts. To solve physical conflicts sometimes we need to hire troops to get involved in wars. There are plenty things we need to consider to win wars. There are several techniques to make decisions to win wars and one of them is Analytic Hierarchycal Process (AHP). In my opinion, to win wars by using AHP technique, we need to manage some things such as: the quantity of our resources, the number of troops we have, the quality of troops we have, the quantity of our weapons, the quality of our weapons, the quantity of our commanders, the quality of our commanders, the quality of information we can obtain, and quantity of information we can obtain.

First thing we need to manage is the quantity of our resources. This is the most necessary thing we need to be able to manage. With unlimited amount of resources, we can hire people with the best ability and with unlimited resources, we can buy or create the most sophisticated weapons unlimitedly but the problem we usually have is our resources are limited. At plenty of condition, we can deplete our resources at the time we need to participate in wars. In this situation, we need to understand that there are scarcities so we need to use our resources wisely. Being unable to manage our resources can make us to be not only cannot win wars but also we can get bankrupt. We need to understand that being able to obtain enough resources in correct time can keep our ability to participate in wars.

After being able to manage our resources, we need to be able to manage the number of troops to win wars. We have to remember troops need some medicines, some foods, and salary. These three things are not easily removed from our list. Being able to manage the quantity of troops can make us to win wars. We cannot think that we are iron men like the black knight RX and we cannot think that we are are supermen who need no troop and able to fight many men or women alone because they have the sun sword, the body that is not penetrable by bullets, or other non-sense ability. In fact we dont have any abilities to become alive again after dead, we dont have the ability of being not penetrable by bullets, and we dont have the ability of being not penetrable by swords, lances, arrows, and any other weapons. This probably make us to become not easy to fight alone because fighting alone mean we need high abilities to avoid weapons. Who can perfectly do that?

Failure to understand the importance of troops probably can yield rebels that can derail our victory in wars. In present time, we can see that Kutai empire was trying to be able to exist again. This probably is not a good thing to have because President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono wanted to eliminate Yogyakarta empire. This is because he thought that it was impossible for a country to have a country inside it in our republic style. Yogyakarta must be lead by a governor and the governor must be elected in a fair provinces general election or pilkada. Yogyakarta now is not having pilkada. With no troops, how will we stop the effort like Kutais effort? With no troops, how will we enforce Yogyakarta to have a fair general election because some of Yogyakarta supporters oppose the effort to create a fair provinces general election or pilkada? Will Kutai empire stop its effort after we send some letters to ask them to stop their efforts? What if they reject to stop their effort if the main government has

not enough troops to handle this situation? Will the situation similar with East Timor happen again in the future? Indonesia is lucky that it has no war although in more extreme situation, Kutai probably refuse to give some of their resources to Republic of Indonesia if Republic of Indonesia has no power to control them. If Indonesia had wars, Indonesia would get two sides to defeat, Kutai Empire and the enemy. If we believe the word of a man that this word is said by poor people only then what will the government do to handle Kutai case? Will they let Kutai to be an empire and being seperated from the Republic of Indonesia because with no troops no thing can be done by the government? Another good example is the shot incident in Papua. This can happen probably because they thought Jakarta is getting weaker. At least the rise of Kutai probably boost their moral to shot. Unfortunately, they were shotting innocent people otherwise this can be said as the other provinces are getting more courage to create problems. With weaker government, will they become unmanageable?

Failure to understand the importance of troops in a nation can make the people to reject taxes and this can make the government lost some sources of resources to pay troops to win wars. Bakrie for example, if the government has not enough power, they wont have the ability to enforce taxes. What will they do to enforce taxes? Will they act like Zeus with to say, Hey you get out of my cloud and expect them to do the words the government say? What if he say, No? Will the government kneel down in front of Bakrie and will Bakrie pay taxes after the governments staffs kneel down in front of him? What if they fail to make Bakrie to pay taxes although they have kneeled down in front of him? Will the government has nothing to do if Bakrie reject to pay taxes?

We can have a very difficult situation if we reject to sell cheap in order to be able to hire and manage our troops to win wars. This is because the more expensive price we want other people to pay at the time they are purchasing our commodity, the more people can reject to purchase our commodity. With out sufficient resources, how can we pay our troops salary? Will this not affect our troops fidelity? Will our troops not leave us at the time we cannot pay their salary? Will they not fight against us if we become unable to pay their salary because they thought it was their right to get salary? If they rebel and fight against us because they are demanding their salary and we are in the middle of wars then we will have two enemy: our own troops and the enemy we are trying to eliminate. The Sriwijaya empire can be a good example at the time we are asking some examples about the condition if we reject to sell cheap. They were asking the people to pay expensively at the time the people use their

harbours. They try to block the people so they could not pass Sriwijaya territory. Some how they failed and perished as we can see until I write this essay, they cannot regain their territory or at least do things like the things Kutai was doing.

The third things we need to manage is the quality of our troops in order to win wars. Can you imagine if our enemy can kill our troops with only a bullet but we need to kill them with three bullets because we are unable to shot accurately? This can make us to waste our chance to kill our enemy meanwhile they dont waste their chance and able to do that. This can make one enemy can kill at least three of our troops because we need three bullets before we can make an accurate shot to kill our enemy although in reality it does not easy to tell the time we will make an accurate shot to kill the enemy. The quality of our troops include our troops martial art skills. Troops with better martial art skills can survive more compare with troops with not enough martial art skills. This is because troops with sufficient martial art skills can avoid the enemy to kill them and at the same time can kill their enemy. Troops with better martial art skills can touch their enemy and at the same time avoid their enemy to touch them. How can we kill without even being able to touch? With medicine we need to touch others inner body with medicine either.

Ideally, the quality of our troops include their intelligent to anticipate enemys strategies and traps. With no ability to do that, they can fall in their enemy traps and they can be killed by their enemy. With not enough ability, they can step in to bomb and get themselves killed if the bomb exploded. With no ability to do that, their enemy can easily lie to them to go to some places and leave their position although they must stay to defend their position and the problem is they can easily trust their enemy. With not enough intelligent, they cannot make a good decision to do or not to do some things.

The next thing we need to manage is the quantity of our weapon in order to win wars. How can we effectively kill our enemy without weapons? With not sufficient quantity of weapons, it is possible that some of our troops use weapon and some others use bare hand to fight the enemy. If the enemy use a good shield, can we easily kill our enemy with bare hand? If our enemy use a good shield, can we easily brake the shield to kill our enemy?

It is not easy to take a decision to choose between weapons and individual qualities. This is because with individual qualities, you can still fight although you have no weapon. With individual quality, you can make traps or some things alike. Although your enemy probably can find out your traps, they need better subordinate to help them to find it if they have no sufficient individual quality themselves. Your enemy can start to sell slowly if they have no sufficient individual quality and they only have limited resources especially if they are selling it more expensive compare with the market price and this can make them to get defeated by you. To rely at your subordinate mean you need to pay them adequately because if your subordinate leave you, you will have no ability to fight your enemy.

With weapons we need no individual quality because the things you need is you can shoot with out to make any wrong shoots. What ever your enemies do, they will have to avoid those bullets. If they are stubborn and try to penetrate in to your place with out adequate protection, they probably will die. To rely at weapons means we must not let our enemy to be able to take over our weapons, we must not let our enemy to stop to make us to be able to keep trying to make ourselves to have the most sophisticated weapons, and we must not allow our enemy to able to make us unable to control our weapons. Being able to make us to be unable to control our weapon, being able to stop to make us able to keep trying to make ourselves to have the most sophisticated weapons or being able to take over our weapons can make them to be able to defeat us.

The fifth things we need to manage is the quality of our weapon in order to win wars. With good weapons, we can kill our enemy with one strike. Without a good weapon, we probably need to kill our enemy with many strikes. If the enemy can kill us in one strike and we can only kill enemy with many strikes, can we survive more especially if our martial art skills is not sufficient? The Japanese empire surrender to the allied forces after two boms strike Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Japanese emperor had nothing to say but to surrender. This showed the importance of weapons in wars.

The sixth things to manage is the quantity of our commander-in-chiefs in order to win wars. This is important because humans can handle limited situation. With simultanous situations occur, he or she need to choose things to do and the more things he or she need to handle, the faster action he need to do. People can only react in as fast as one second

maximumly. This is excluding the time to think. If a person need to handle things that exceed his or her ability, can he or she effectively handle a thing? The seventh thing to manage is our commander-in-chiefs quality if we want to win wars. With good commanders, we can hope the commander to be able to manage team well to win wars. With good commander, the commander can instruct the troops to avoid enemys traps. With good commander, we can hope he or she can choose effective method to attack or to defend. With good commander we can minimize the need of intelligent troops because the commander can command the troops to avoid traps and know the enemys strategies to avoid to make wrong moves.

The eigth thing we need to manage is the quality of information we can obtain to win wars. This is because knowledge are not coming from the God. We need to obtain good information from a forecasting technique, from a mind reading technique and from at least a good scout of us. We must be able to make sure that we are gathering good information because inaccurate information can lead to inaccurate actions from us. We cannot respond well to any conditions with wrong information.

In order to obtain good information, we need good scouts. The more skill our scouts have the better information they can obtain. The worse skill our scouts have the worse information they can obtain. The worst condition are they probably can make themselves killed or captured by our enemy.

If we want to use AHP to make decision about strategies to take, we can rate the quantity of our resources, the number of troops we have, the quality of troops we have, the quantity of our weapons, the quality of our weapons, the quantity of our commanders, the quality of our commanders, the quality of information we can obtain, and quantity of information we can obtain criteria. The more important the criteria is, the higher point will be assigned to the criteria. As an example, if we use 1-10 to rate these criteria, we will assign 10 to resources, 6 to number of troops, 7 to the quality of troops,

Information we need to gather in wars to win wars are the conditions of enemy troops, the battle field condition, and other threats from third parties or from other parts of enemy troops. This is usually important because with out knowing the condition of our enemy we

can become unable to decide the correct time to attact or defend. This condition can make enemy to be able to defeat us. Battle field information can make us to decide the strategies we are going to use to fight. In a naval battle, we will need to use galleons or similar equipments. In an air combat, we will use F-16, Sukhoi or similar aeroplanes., In land, we will use tanks, lances, sword, arrows, guns, et cetera. Failure to know the battle field condition can make us to use wrong equipments to fight. Can you use lances, gun, or sword in a naval battle without any galleons? Other threats or other parts of enemy troops need to be worry because they can attack us at the time we are attacking our target. If we are not guarding our home base, we will need to win or we will be homeless or will have no place to go if all of our bases are taken over by our enemy or if our base adjacent to our enemy base is taken over by others and no place we can go because our enemy is surrounding us.

The quality of information we can obtain usually is better compare with the quantity of information we can obtain. This is because the amount of information will not give any benefits to us if the information are wrong, inaccurate, or out of date. These not good enough information can lead to wrong decision we can make. The more inaccurate or the more out of date the information are, the worse decision we can make.

The last thing we must be able to manage in this essay is the quantity of information to win wars. As mentioned in previous paragraph, quantity of information are not better compare with the quality of the information we can get. That is the reason some time we cannot trade quality to get quantity. We need to maintain a good information level to be able to make good decisions. We can say these information are necessary to support our decisions.

To process information to win wars, we have some techniques such as Fuzzy inference system, analytic hierarchycal process, et cetera. These are not including several other techniques not mentioned in this essay. These techniques have their own uniqueness. The use of these techniques depend at the situation we are having. Different situations probably require different techniques.

One of the technique to process information to win wars is analytical hierarchycal process (AHP) which was introduced by Thomas Satty and was using comparisons to make decissions. We need to compare things after we judge how necessary do we need the things. The higher the priority is the higher score the things will have. The process to multiply the

matrix will continue until we get small difference in eigen values. After we get only small difference, we find the consistency ratio after we calculate consistency index with random index. We do the same with the criteria until we get the consistency ratio.

1. Introduction to AHP Approach

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) of Thomas L. Saaty has emerged in the last 1518 years as a major tool in multicriteria decision analysis (Holder, 1990: 1073). AHP is based on pair wise comparison using a ratio scale to indicate strength of preverence. According to Melone and Wharton in I., P., and B., L., 2009: 16, a weight should be assigned to the cost and to the risk aspects of the alternatives, along with the other attributes. Shoval and Lugasi in I., P., and B., L., 2009: 16 reviewed various approaches for assigning a weight to the cost aspect and for combining cost and non monetary scores in order to obtain a single numerical value for alternative selection (I and B, 2008: 16). In my opinion, AHP can make the selection process to be very transparent.

According to Drake in Kumar, S., Parashar, N., Haleem, A., 2009: 356, AHP makes the selection process very transparent. It also reveals the relative merits of alternative solutions for a Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem. According to Cheng and Li in , S., Parashar, N., Haleem, A., 2009: 356, AHP approach is a subjective methodology; information and the priority weights of elements may be obtained from a decisionmaker of the company using direct questioning or a questionnaire method 2009 (Kumar, Parashar and Haleem, 2009: 355-362).

In short, we can get a benefit at least if we use AHP to choose some multicriteria things. We can just pick the criteria and apply the AHP technique.

2. AHP Calculation Example To make you to be able to understand AHP, I give an example of the technique we can use to use this AHP although the example I include is not an example to produce war decision. This example is meant to explain about the technique to use this AHP technique although not all of the information supplied is correct because this is only a hypothetical information. Some of the hypotetical information are:

2.1.Price Hypothetical prices I am using are: a. Diarrhea Medication: Hypothesis prices I am using are: 1. Loperamide = Rp. 4000,00 (Survey Result); 2. Oralit = Rp. 1000,00 (Survey Result); 3. Amerole = Rp. 3000,00 (Hypothesis); 4. Andikap = Rp. 2500,00 (Hypothesis); 5. Collidium = Rp. 1500,00 (Hypothesis);

Table 1 Prices of Diarrhea Medication Table Number 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Medicine Name Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Collidium Table 2 Degree of Decision of Diarrhea Medicine by Using Prices Criteria but Hypothesis Harga Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Collidium 1,00 4,00 1,32 1,60 2,68 0,25 1,00 0,33 0,40 0,67 Loperamide 1,00 4,00 1,32 1,60 2,68 0,76 3,00 1,00 1,20 2,00 Oralit 0,25 1,00 0,33 0,40 0,67 0,63 2,50 0,83 1,00 1,68 Amerole 0,76 3,00 1,00 1,20 2,00 0,37 1,49 0,50 0,60 1,00 Andikap 0,63 2,50 0,83 1,00 1,68 Colidium 0,37 1,49 0,50 0,60 1,00 Prices Rp. 4000,00 Rp. 1000,00 Rp. 3000,00 Rp. 2500,00 Rp. 1500,00 AHP Matrix 0,25 1 0,33 0,4 0,67

1,00 4,00 1,32 1,60 2,68 5,00 19,95 6,63 7,99 13,37 Result of the sum of a row

0,25 1,00 0,33 0,40 0,67

0,76 3,00 1,00 1,20 2,00 1,25 4,99 1,66 2,00 3,34

0,63 2,50 0,83 1,00 1,68 3,77 15,02 4,99 6,02 10,06

0,37 1,49 0,50 0,60 1,00 3,14 12,51 4,16 5,01 8,38 1,87 7,46 2,48 2,99 5,00

Normalization Result 0,09 0,38 0,13 0,15 0,25 1,00 2

15,03 59,93 19,91 24,01 40,15 159,03

5,00 19,95 6,63 7,99 13,37

1,25 4,99 1,66 2,00 3,34

3,77 15,02 4,99 6,02 10,06

3,14 12,51 4,16 5,01 8,38

1,87 7,46 2,48 2,99 5,00

125,02 498,58 165,75 199,77 333,99

31,27 124,71 41,46 49,97 83,54

94,15 375,47 124,82 150,44 251,52

78,42 312,74 103,97 125,31 209,50

46,76 186,49 62,00 74,72 124,92

Result of the sum of a row 375,63 1.497,98 497,99 600,21 1.003,47 3.975,27 Max = CI = R=

Normalization Result 0,09 0,38 0,13 0,15 0,25 1,00 5 0 0

Eigen Value

0 0 0 0 0

Weight 75,13 299,60 99,60 120,04 200,69

Eigen Value 5 5 5 5 5

2.2.Side Effect Things need to be discussed: a. Number Needed to Harm (NNH) NNH is a number that show side effect. Some medicines NNH:

1. Diarrhea Medicine Diarrhea medicine drugs list that is analysed: a). Loperamide: 34 (Hypothesis); b). Oralit: 20 (Hypothesis); c). Amerole: 34 (Hypothesis); d). Andikap: 20 (Hypothesis); e). Collidium: 25 (Hypothesis);

Table 3 Diarrhea Medicine Side Effects Table Number Medicines Name 1. Loperamide 2. Oralit 3. Amerole 4. Andikap 5. Collidium Table 4 Diarrhea Side Effect Hypothesis Decisions Table Side Effect Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Collidium Loperamide Oralit 1,00 0,59 1,00 0,59 0,74 1,70 1,00 1,70 1,00 1,25 Amerole 1,00 0,59 1,00 0,59 0,74 Andikap 1,70 1,00 1,70 1,00 1,25 2 1,00 0,59 1,00 0,59 0,74 1,70 1,00 1,70 1,00 1,25 1,00 0,59 1,00 0,59 0,74 1,70 1,00 1,70 1,00 1,25 1,36 0,80 1,36 0,80 1,00 Collidium 1,36 0,80 1,36 0,80 1,00 Side Effect 34 20 34 20 25

Rows Sum Normalization Results 5,01 2,95 5,01 2,95 3,70 8,50 5,01 8,50 5,01 6,27 5,01 2,95 5,01 2,95 3,70 8,50 5,01 8,50 5,01 6,27 6,80 4,00 6,80 4,00 5,01 33,83 19,92 33,83 19,92 24,94 0,26 0,15 0,26 0,15 0,19

Iterasion II: 5,01 2,95 5,01 2,95 3,70 8,50 5,01 8,50 5,01 6,27 5,01 2,95 5,01 2,95 3,70 8,50 5,01 8,50 5,01 6,27 6,80 4,00 6,80 4,00 5,01

Sum of a Row 125,51 73,92 125,51 73,92 92,60 212,98 125,43 212,98 125,43 157,14 125,51 73,92 125,51 73,92 92,60 212,98 125,43 212,98 125,43 157,14 170,20 100,24 170,20 100,24 125,58 847,18 498,94 847,18 498,94 625,06 3.317,30

Normalization Results 0,26 0,15 0,26 0,15 0,19

Eigen Values 0 0 0 0 0 Max = CI= CR= 5 5 5 5 5

5 0 0

2.3.Medicines Qualityt Things need to be analysed: a. Number Needed to Treat NNT is a value that show drugs quality. Some of NNT are:

1. Diarrhea Drugs Diarrhea drugs analysed: a). Loperamide: 2,3 5 (Holten, 2003: p. 946); b). Oralit: 1 (Hypothesis) c). Amerole: 4 (Hypothesis) d). Andikap: 5 (Hypothesis) e). Collidium: 7 (Hypothesis)

Table 5 Diarrhea Medicine Quality Hypothesis Decisions Table Number Medicine Name Drugs Quality 5 1 4 5 7 Table 6 Diarrhea Medicine Quality Degree of Decisions Table Medicine Quality Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Colidium 1,00 5,00 1,25 1,00 0,7 0,20 1,00 0,25 0,20 0,14 1,00 5,00 1,25 1,00 0,70 0,80 4,00 1,00 0,80 0,56 0,20 1,00 0,25 0,20 0,14 1,00 5,00 1,25 1,00 0,70 0,80 4,00 1,00 0,80 0,56 1,43 7,14 1,79 1,42 1,00 = 2 1,00 5,00 1,25 1,00 0,70 1,43 7,14 1,79 1,42 1,00 Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Colidium AHP Matrix 0,2 1 0,25 0,2 0,14

1. Loperamide 2. Oralit 3. Amerole 4. Andikap 5. Collidium

5,00 25,00 6,25 4,99 3,50

1,00 5,00 1,25 1,00 0,70 Normalization

4,00 20,00 5,00 4,00 2,80

5,00 25,00 6,25 4,99 3,50

7,14 35,69 8,93 7,13 5,00

Sum of a Row 22,14 110,68 27,69 22,11 15,50 198,12 Iterasion II:

Results 0,11 0,56 0,14 0,11 0,08

2 5,00 25,00 6,25 4,99 3,50 1,00 5,00 1,25 1,00 0,70 4,00 20,00 5,00 4,00 2,80 5,00 25,00 6,25 4,99 3,50 7,14 35,69 8,93 7,13 5,00 =

124,94 624,67 156,19 124,81 87,47

25,00 124,98 31,25 24,97 17,50 Normalization

99,99 499,93 125,00 99,88 70,00

124,94 624,67 156,19 124,81 87,47

178,46 892,25 223,10 178,27 124,93

Sum of a Row 553,33 2.766,50 691,74 552,73 387,36 4.951,66

Results 0,11 0,56 0,14 0,11 0,08 1,00

 Eigen Values 0 0 0 0 0

Max = CI= CR=

5 0 0

1.4.

Medicines Availability Drug availabilitys information was gained with surveys. Some are hypothesis.

a. Diarrheas Medicine Table 7 Diarrhea Medicine Decision Table with Drugs Availability Criteria Number 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Oralit Amerole Andikap Collidium Table 8 Diarrhea Medicine Decision Degrees Table with Drugs Availability Criteria Drugs Availability Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Collidium 1,00 0,86 0,29 0,71 0,14 1,17 1,00 0,33 0,83 0,16 3,50 3,00 1,00 2,50 0,50 1,40 1,20 0,40 1,00 0,20 7,00 6,00 2,00 5,00 1,00 Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Collidium Medicine Name Loperamide Drug Availability 7 6 2 5 1

1,00 0,86 0,29 0,71 0,14

1,17 1,00 0,33 0,83 0,16

3,50 3,00 1,00 2,50 0,50

1,40 1,20 0,40 1,00 0,20

7,00 6,00 2,00 5,00 1,00

5,00 4,28 1,43 3,56 0,70

5,78 4,95 1,65 4,12 0,81

17,51 15,01 5,01 12,48 2,47

7,00 6,00 2,00 4,99 0,99

35,02 30,02 10,01 24,95 4,94

Normalization Sum of a Row 70,31 60,26 20,10 50,09 9,92 210,69 2 5,00 4,28 1,43 3,56 0,70 5,78 4,95 1,65 4,12 0,81 17,51 15,01 5,01 12,48 2,47 7,00 6,00 2,00 4,99 0,99 35,02 30,02 10,01 24,95 4,94 = Results 0,33 0,29 0,09 0,24 0,05

124,21 106,42 35,50 88,51 17,48

143,61 123,04 41,05 102,33 20,21

435,89 373,47 124,59 310,60 61,35

174,30 149,34 49,82 124,20 24,53

871,54 746,73 249,11 621,03 122,66

Normalization Sum of a Row 1.749,55 1.499,00 500,07 1.246,67 246,23 Results 0,33 0,29 0,09 0,24 0,05

Eigen Values 0 0 0 0 0

5.241,52 Max = CI= CR= 5 0 0

Table 9 Drugs Decision Criteria Table Number 1. 2. 3. 4. Criterias Name Harga Efek Samping Kualitas Ketersediaan Weight 2 4 6 1

Criteria

Price

Table 10 Criterias Decision Degrees Table Side Effect Quality

Drugs Availability

Price Side Effect Quality Drugs Availability

1,00 2,00 3,00 0,50

0,50 1,00 1,50 0,25

0,33 0,67 1,00 0,17

2,00 4,00 6,00 1,00

1,00 0,50 0,33 2,00 2,00 1,00 0,67 4,00 3,00 1,50 1,00 6,00 0,50 0,25 0,17 1,00 Hasil Jumlah Baris 15,30 30,72 46,02 7,71 99,74

3,99 8,01 12,00 = 2,01

2,00 4,01 6,00 1,01

1,34 2,68 4,02 0,67

7,98 16,02 24,00 4,02

Hasil Normalisasi 0,15 0,31 0,46 0,08 1,00 2

3,99 8,01 12,00 2,01 64,06 128,44 192,42 32,23

2,00 4,01 6,00 1,01 32,10 64,36 96,42 16,15

1,34 2,68 4,02 0,67 21,44 42,99 64,40 10,79 Eigen Values = Sum of a

7,98 16,02 24,00 4,02 128,12 256,88 384,84 64,46

Normalization Sum of a Row 245,72 492,67 738,08 123,63 1.600,10 Results 0,15 0,31 0,46 0,08 1,00

Row/Weight 4 4 4 4

 Eigen Values 0 0 0 0 Weight = Sum of a Row/Total of Criteria

61,43 123,17 184,52 30,91

Max = CI= CR=

4 0 0

Max = Sum of Eigen Values / Number of Kriteria Consistency Index (CI) = (Max N) / (N-1), N = Number of Criteria. Consistency Ratio (CR) = CI/(Random Index (RI) from the below table)

Table 10 Table of Random Index (RI)

Number 1 of Criteria Z1 0.00

10

0.00

0.58

0.90

1.12

1.24

1.32

1.41

1.45

1.49

To Cure Diarrhea

Price 0,15

Side Effect 0,31

Quality 0,46

Availability 0,08

Loperamide (0,09) Oralit (0,38) Amerole (0,13) Andikap (0,15) Collidium (0,25)

Loperamide (0,25) Oralit (0,15) Amerole (0,26) Andikap (0,15) Collidium (0,19)

Loperamide (0,11) Oralit (0,56) Amerole (0,14) Andikap (0,11) Collidium (0,08) Figure 1

Loperamide (0,33) Oralit (0,29) Amerole (0,09) Andikap (0,24) Collidium (0,05)

AHP Scheme on Diarrhea

Table 11 Price of Diarrheas Drug Recapitulation Price Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Colidium Eigen Values Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Colidium 1,00 4,00 1,32 1,60 2,68 0,25 1,00 0,33 0,40 0,67 0,76 3,00 1,00 1,20 2,00 Table 12 Side Effect of Diarrheas Drug Recapitulation Side Effect Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Collidium Eigen Values Loperamide Oralit Amerole 1,00 0,59 1,00 1,70 1,00 1,70 1,00 0,59 1,00 1,70 1,00 1,70 1,36 0,80 1,36 0,26 0,15 0,26 0,63 2,50 0,83 1,00 1,68 0,37 1,49 0,50 0,60 1,00 0,09 0,38 0,13 0,15 0,25

Andikap Collidium

0,59 0,74

1,00 1,25

0,59 0,74 Table 13

1,00 1,25

0,80 1,00

0,15 0,19

Quality of Diarrheas Drug Recapitulation Quality Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Colidium Eigen Values Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Colidium 1,00 5,00 1,25 1,00 0,70 0,20 1,00 0,25 0,20 0,14 0,80 4,00 1,00 0,80 0,56 Table 14 Availability of Diarrheas Drug Recapitulation Availability Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Colidium Eigen Values Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Colidium 1,00 0,86 0,29 0,71 0,14 1,17 1,00 0,33 0,83 0,16 3,50 3,00 1,00 2,50 0,50 Table 15 Drugs Information and Criteria Recapitulation of Diarrhea Drugs End Calculation Loperamide Oralit Amerole Andikap Colidium Result: Loperamide Oralit Amerole 0,14 0,39 0,14 0,09 0,38 0,13 0,15 0,25 0,26 0,15 0,26 0,15 0,19 0,11 0,56 0,14 0,11 0,08 0,33 0,29 0,09 0,24 0,05 Price Side Effect Quality Availability Criterias Weight 0,15 0,31 0,46 0,08 1,40 1,20 0,40 1,00 0,20 7,00 6,00 2,00 5,00 1,00 0,33 0,29 0,09 0,24 0,05 1,00 5,00 1,25 1,00 0,70 1,43 7,14 1,79 1,42 1,00 0,11 0,56 0,14 0,11 0,08

Andikap Collidium So we get ranks: 1. Oralit, 2. Collidium, 3. Andikap, 4. Loperamide, 5. Amerole.

0,15 0,17

2. AHP in a War Decision Taking Before we start, we need to know the questionare the general need to fill in. They need to judge some alternatives and some criteria before we can produce further matrix. Table 30 Questionaire of Criteria Judgement

Number

Criteria 1. Resources 2. Number of troops we have 3. Quality of troops we have 4. Quantity of our weapons 5. Quality of our weapons 6. Quantity of our commanders 7. Quality of our commanders 8. Quality of information we can obtain 9. Quantity of

Point

AHP Matrix

information we can obtain

Win Wars

Resources

Quality of weapons of our enemy Quality of troops of our enemy Quantity of weapons of our enemy

Quality of our enemys commanders

Number of troops our enemy have

Quantity of information we can obtain

Quantity of our enemys commander s

Quality of informati on we can obtain

Singapore

Malaysia

Thailand

Taiwan

Philippines

Figure 3 AHP Scheme to Win Wars

3.1. Resources Resources need to be considered carefully. This is because country with abundance resources can hire plenty of troops. Not easy to defeat so many troops. Our best target is country with plenty resources but we will need to be extra carefull if the country is not getting all of the resources with their own ability. Total resources in billion US$ a. Indonesia: 116.1 (Asian Development Bank, 2011: 10), b. Singapore: 242.3 (Asian Development Bank, 2011: 10), c. Malaysia: 132.5 (Asian Development Bank, 2011: 10), d. Philippines: 61.4 (Asian Development Bank, 2011: 10), e. Thailand: 178.8 (Asian Development Bank, 2011: 10),

f. Taiwan: 400.3 (Asian Development Bank, 2011: 10). 3.2. Number of Troops of Our Enemy Number of troops is necessary to consider because the more troops our enemy has, the better defence they can make and the more chances they will win the wars. Although there are other factors, this is necessary to consider. List of analyzed countrys troops: