(4.1.

2012) 10

) X ~ NB(r , p
k 1 r
p (1 p )k r
P( X = k ) =
, k = r , r + 1....
r

r
) r (1 p
= ) E( X
= ) V (X
p
p2
" X r.
1
    . 0.3
    !
) 2(
  .
0.25 . 
5   .
.  . 
 ?
. ?
.  4 .
 10 ?
.    10 5 .
5 ?
3
4
.1
:
" "
1
r = 4:
=p
6
4
) 4 (5 / 6
= ] E[ X
= 24
= ) V (X
= 120
2
1
(
)1 / 6
6

) X ~ Poi (
e k
!k
E( X ) = V (X ) =
= ) P( X = k

4
) 144 (   = 5
(  10:00 10:01 ( ?
( 3?
(  10:00 10:05 4?
1

 5
   "" .  8
  200 .  12
  ?
6
   ,  3
.  . , 50
 90 .
.    ? , 200
. ? , 120
.     ?
:6
~0.19 .
~0.17 .
.= 225

= 106.666"