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si contamos con ventas historicas es posible estimar cual fua la tasa de crecimiento:
Ao
Ventas Historicas
LogarItmo de ventas
2002
138,500
5.14
Pendiente
Tasa de crecimiento
Tasa de crecimiento Largo Plazo
2003
155,500
5.19
2004
172,500
5.24
2005
198,755
5.30
0.0539
13.21% anual
2.30% anual
(Fijos y variables)
2012
Ventas en unidades
Precio
USD
610.00
610.00
Ventas
(-) Costos de Produccin
(=) Ganancia bruta
13.21%
30.00% % de Ventas
478,609
143,583
335,026
8.00%
125000 Apalancamiento operativo
30500
12.00%
38,289
125,000
0
57,433
114,304
(-) Intereses
(-) Impuestos
(=) ganancia Neta
Apalancamiento financiero
7.50% Tasa de interes s/deuda
32.00% Impuestos a las ganancias
Ganancia operativa/Ventas
23.88%
20,566
29,996
63,742
fijos y variables
2.00%
20.00%
120.00%
10.00%
de Ventas
de Ventas
de Ventas
de Ventas
2.00% % de Ventas
110,000
fijos
52,000
fijos
295,000
fijos
2012
9,572
95,722
574,331
47,861
727,485
9,572
110,000
52,000
295,000
Edificios
Otros activos
(-) depreciacin acumulada
Total de Activos fijos
155,000
22,000
30,500
fijos
fijos
fijos
155,000
22,000
0
643,572
Total Activo
1,371,058
Pasivo
Patrimonio Neto
pasivo + patrimonio neto
20.00%
80.00%
274,212
1,096,846
1,371,058
2012
1,371,058
77,727
66,879
10,848
Flujos de financiamiento
Flujos para los bancos (Cash flow to debt)
Flujos para los accionistas (Cash flow to equity)
Total
2012
20,566
-9,718
10,848
1
77,727
1,371,058
5.67%
12%
-86,800
12%
10,848
1/(1-WACC)^
0.89
$9,686
$947,986
-$423,072
-86,800
0.89
-77,500
947,986
-423,072
2006
228,755
5.36
2007
258,985
5.41
2008
287645
5.46
2009
322,785
5.51
2010
369,875
5.57
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
(Fijos y variables)
610.00
610.00
610.00
610.00
610.00
541,842
162,553
379,289
613,429
184,029
429,400
694,475
208,342
486,132
786,228
235,868
550,359
890,103
267,031
623,072
43,347
125,000
30,500
65,021
115,421
49,074
125,000
30,500
73,612
151,215
55,558
125,000
30,500
83,337
191,737
62,898
125,000
30,500
94,347
237,614
71,208
125,000
30,500
106,812
289,551
21,569
30,033
63,819
22,765
41,104
87,346
24,180
53,618
113,939
25,842
67,767
144,005
27,784
83,766
178,002
21.30%
24.65%
27.61%
30.22%
32.53%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
10,837
108,368
650,210
54,184
823,600
12,269
122,686
736,115
61,343
932,412
13,889
138,895
833,370
69,447
1,055,601
15,725
157,246
943,473
78,623
1,195,066
17,802
178,021
1,068,123
89,010
1,352,956
10,837
110,000
52,000
295,000
12,269
110,000
52,000
295,000
13,889
110,000
52,000
295,000
15,725
110,000
52,000
295,000
17,802
110,000
52,000
295,000
2011
422,755
5.63
155,000
22,000
30,500
614,337
155,000
22,000
61,000
585,269
155,000
22,000
91,500
556,389
155,000
22,000
122,000
527,725
155,000
22,000
152,500
499,302
1,437,936
1,517,681
1,611,991
1,722,790
1,852,258
287,587
1,150,349
1,437,936
303,536
1,214,145
1,517,681
322,398
1,289,593
1,611,991
344,558
1,378,232
1,722,790
370,452
1,481,807
1,852,258
2015
2016
2013
2014
1,437,936
78,486
79,745
-1,258
1,517,681
102,826
94,310
8,516
1,611,991
130,381
110,800
19,582
1,722,790
161,577
129,468
32,109
2013
21,569
-22,827
-1,258
2014
22,765
-14,249
8,516
2015
24,180
-4,598
19,582
2016
25,842
6,268
32,109
78,486
1,437,936
5.46%
12%
-94,066
2
102,826
1,517,681
6.78%
12%
-79,296
3
130,381
1,611,991
8.09%
12%
-63,058
4
2017
perpetuidad
1,852,258
0
196,895
42,602 Necesidades de Inversin
154,293
2017
27,784
126,509
154,293
perpetuidad
161,577
1,722,790
9.38%
12%
-45,157
5
196,895
1,852,258
10.63%
12%
-25,376
perpetuidad
-1,258
8,516
19,582
32,109
0.80
-$1,003
0.71
$6,062
0.64
$12,445
0.57
$18,220
-94,066
0.80
-74,989
-79,296
0.71
-56,441
-63,058
0.64
-40,074
-45,157
0.57
-25,624
154,293
5
5.85 1/(Wacc-g2)*((1/81+wacc)^ )
$902,577
-25,376
5.85
-148,444
1/(Wacc-g2)*((1/81+wacc)^5)