Issue 78

Copyright 2011-2012 www.Propwise.sg. All Rights Reserved.

CONTENTS
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5 Bestselling New Property Launches of October How and Why Property Market Busts Happen Singapore Property News This Week Resale Property Transactions (October 31 November 6)

FROM THE

EDITOR

Welcome to the 78th edition of the Singapore Property Weekly. Hope you like it! Mr. Propwise

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78

5 Bestselling New Property Launches of October

What are the top selling projects by developers this month? In this article, based on analysis done at PropertyMarketInsights.com, we will share with you the five bestselling non-landed projects launched by developers in October 2012 ranked by the number of units sold, based on URA data. This list is a quick way for you to identify new projects that are selling well. Looking at the location, number of units sold and prices, you can get a sense of where the hot areas and projects are, and potentially spot interesting opportunities in projects that are nearby that could be selling at a significant discount.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 5. eCO, 149 Units Sold eCO sold 149 units in October, taking fifth place. The 99 year leasehold condominium is expected to be completed by 2017 with 748 units. eCO offers nature-centric facilities like a garden boulevard trail, play garden, fitness garden, flower terraces and rain garden pavilion. eCO is located at Bedok South Avenue 3 near Tanah Merah MRT and Bedok MRT. Nearby schools include Bedok View Secondary School and Bedok Green Primary School. Residents can visit nearby Sheng Siong Supermarket or NTUC Fairprice for daily amenities. (All map screenshots OneMap.sg) are taken from

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 4. Waterbay, 221 Units Sold With 221 units sold in October, Waterbay is at fourth place. The 99 year leasehold executive condominium is expected to be completed by 2016 with 383 units. Some of Waterbay's more unique features include a sun lounge, cascading waterfall, reading pavilion, chill-out pavilion, hydro gym and rain shower. Waterbay is located at 45 Edgefield Plains, within Punggol Central. It is near Punggol MRT and Sengkang MRT. Nearby schools include Punggol Secondary School and Edgefield Primary School. Residents can visit nearby Cold Storage or NTUC Fairprice supermarkets for daily amenities.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 3. Riversails, 271 Units Sold With 271 units sold in October, Riversails takes third place. The 99 year leasehold condominium is expected to be completed by 2017 with 928 units. River Sails offers an interesting array of facilities like jungle gym, mini theatre, stage of tales, island swirl spa, green trellis, camping lawn, paddle boats and yoga pool. Riversails is located at 20, Upper Serangoon Crescent, near Hougang MRT and Buangkok MRT. Nearby schools include Pei Hwa Secondary School and Fernvale Primary School. Residents can go to Compass Point and Rivervale Plaza for daily amenities.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 2. Skies Miltonia, 309 Units Sold With 309 units sold in October, Skies Miltonia takes second place. The 99 year leasehold condominium is expected to be completed by 2016 with 420 units. Some of Skies Miltonia's more outstanding features include a shuttle bus service, rain canopy, sky gym, meditation garden, celebration lawn, water spa alcoves. Skies Miltonia is located at 45 Miltonia Close near Khatib MRT and Yishun MRT. Nearby schools include Northbrooks Secondary School and Naval Base Primary School. Residents can visit nearby Cold Storage, NTUC Fairprice supermarkets or Northpoint Shopping Centre for daily amenities.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 1. Heron Bay, 354 Units Sold Heron Bay tops the list with 354 units sold in October. The 99 year leasehold condominium is expected to be completed by 2016 with 394 units. Some of Heron Bay's feature highlights include a discovery trail, water edge viewing deck, aqua adventure corner, eco trellis, rainforest skylight, hydro spa pool and sensory trail. Heron Bay is located at Upper Serangoon View near Hougang MRT and Khatib MRT. Nearby schools include Serangoon Secondary School and Rivervale Primary School. Residents can visit Sheng Siong, Cold Storage, NTUC Fairprice supermarkets or Hougang Plaza, Hougang Mall and Compass Point for daily amenities.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 Now that you know what new properties are selling well, use this knowledge to your advantage. Identify market trends and choose the right time to make your move. Till next month! Want a longer list of the bestselling new sale projects? Or a list of the cheapest ones? You can get this and much more at PropertyMarketInsights.com, a site that helps investors spot opportunities and time their Singapore property purchases. Click here to get your FREE report on Understanding the Property Market Cycle to invest profitably now.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78

How and Why Property Market Busts Happen

By guest contributor Gerald Tay There are many investors who invest in properties solely for capital gains. They are not concerned with making a rental profit, and are sometimes even happy to make a rental loss! Understanding why property prices rise and fall is very important if we want to make money. In Singapores highly volatile property market, you should never count your chickens before they hatch. Inexperienced, amateur and speculative investors only know how to count chickens. Successful and smart investors count the eggs and understand why and how they hatch.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 It is property prices that drive yield, not the other way round. Property prices are volatile, rents are stable. We call the rise and fall of property prices the boom-bust cycle. then this is not much of a problem. However, recent reports concluded the majority of Singaporean buyers who bought at the current high bought these properties with bank loans. Its the pulling of the plug by the banks that causes the rapid decline in property investment. Let me show you a clear chain of events: When a crisis erupts due to an unforeseen event happening, e.g. Asian financial crisis, Lehman Brothers collapse or even a possible financial crisis in Europe, depositors would rush to the banks to withdraw money, thus causing a tremendous outflow of money supply from the banks. The banks would then have to restrict lending as much as possible to prevent a liquidity crisis. Coupled with increased interest rates which have killed both investment growth and yield,
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The Chain of Events in a Crash

Something has to cause the crash. Crashes do not happen overnight but they do happen a lot quicker than a boom. Think of a rollercoaster. When you reach the top of a slope, you think the cart will rest at the top but it just tips over the edge and accelerates downwards. At the top of the slope the following will happen at a greater pace than during the climb: Interest rates rise to curb inflation. Borrowing becomes more expensive and many investments no longer look attractive. The property market slows down.

If speculation is done using private money,

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 banks would view lending money as a very risky business and thus stop lending. This would then lead to a severe shortfall of money supply in the markets, which will eventually lead to global economic downturns. When banks restrict lending because they are scared, it means fewer people are able to buy. Due to fewer people being able to buy land and property because of the restriction by the banks, land and property prices have to fall. People who have bought at the peak are now facing negative equity. Their debt is greater than the value of their home. The credit boom cools. Lenders now know that the consumers property value has fallen; hence there is no security to lend. Due to higher than expected interest rate rises, some borrowers start to default. The banks try to access the security by issuing
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repossession orders but due to property prices falling below the security, the banks start to lose money. Consumption falls as banks are also not providing credit to fuel consumption. New property launches now look unprofitable due to the lack of buyers, which is the result of banks not lending. Even renting these properties looks unprofitable due to the higher than anticipated interest rates. Projects are aborted. Property developers know that if they carry on they will certainly lose money. The mass exit from the property market, heavy bank losses and depressed consumer spending causes unemployment. The feel good factor is non-existent! Borrowing and spending both decline. The demand for goods fall as consumption falls. Speculation on the property market looks silly. People think its better to save than spend.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 As property prices fall, potential buyers will wait till the market bottoms out hoping to get a bargain. Property prices rapidly decline until the professional investor cushions the fall and becomes interested again. (This is where smart investors like me would enter with glee!) Demand and Supply of Money Is the Real Cause As you can see, it is not principally the demand and supply of units in the property market that determines property prices to rise or fall, which many self-interest groups and even the government have led people to believe in. Rather, it is the actual demand and supply of money in the markets that will strongly determine if your property or any other investments go up or down in value. With the European crisis on the brink of global economic catastrophe, coupled with a slowdown in China, I strongly urge investors
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to avoid buying both local and overseas new property developments being marketed today on hopes of future capital gains. The above chain of reactions is not a matter of IF but WHEN. Major financial crisis events have existed as early as the 14th century. As my late multi-millionaire grandfather advised, Inexperienced, amateur and ignorant investors only know how to make money on future capital gains. Smart and successful investors make money on todays cash flow. Today, the still buoyant Singapore property market is potentially headed for a sharp downfall once global credit markets starts to freeze. Dont forget, Asian credit markets are primarily financed by large European banks, which are already facing huge liquidity challenges caused by the Euro Crisis. By guest contributor Gerald Tay, CEO and Chief Trainer at CREi Academy Group.
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78

Singapore Property This Week

Residential
Transaction volumes down for apartments worth $10m and more Only 33 luxury condos and apartments worth $10 million and above were sold in the first 10 months of 2012, compared to 57 units in the same period a year ago. The 33 units are worth a total of $449.6 million, 44% down from the $797.5 million in the same period last year. This is likely due to the introduction of the ABSD in December last year. The ABSD is likely the cause for the fall in the proportion of foreign buyers of properties worth $5 million or more from 38.8% in 2011 to 26.6% in the first 10 months of 2012. The proportion of companies share also fell from
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15.8% to 4.3% in the same period. The proportion of Singaporean buyers and PR buyers, however, increased from 23% and 22.3% to 36.9% and 32.3% respectively. While foreign buyers are likely to return to the market, there may not be as many since there more cooling measures might be introduced. (Source: Business Times) HDB resale market stabilising

The annual Resale Price Index (RPI) growth had fallen from 14.1% in 2010 to 10.7% in 2011 and this trend is likely to continue since it is 3.9% in Q1 to Q3 of 2012. This reflects stabilisation in the HDB resale market.

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 While the quarterly RPI growth in Q3 is 2%, much of the impact of the large supply of BTO flats can only be felt in the next 2-3 years when they are completed. of the new restrictions on housing loans. However, this is not a cause for worry since it still exceeded the 1,633 units launched in October. 19,792 units have been sold in primary market in the first 10 months of 2012 but sales are likely to slow to 1,300-1,500 units each in the next two months, though the full-year tally is likely to hit a record high of 22,000 to 24,000 units. Only 659 units of the 1,633 units launched in October were from new projects, suggesting that the developers were cautious about the effect of the cooling measures. Meanwhile, 676 ECs were sold in October, 4.5 times the 150 units sold the month before. There were 777 units launched in October, the first month to see EC launches since June. The sales in October brought the total sold in the first 10 months to 3,493 ECs, compared to the 2,883 units sold in 2011 and
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Separately, only 2% of the 178,000 applications for HDB loans were rejected in the first three quarters of the year. This was because the applicants had taken two or more HDB loans prior to their current applications. Nevertheless, the success rate for appeals for HDB loans was at a healthy 36%.
(Source: Business Times) Transaction volumes down in October after cooling measures 1,948 private homes excluding ECs were sold in the primary market (76% from the Outside Central Region) in October, a 25.7% fall from the figure in September, possibly as a result
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 the 1,052 in 2010. Including ECs, 2,624 units were sold in October, a 5.3% from the 2,771 units in September, but a 59.7% increase from October 2011. (Source: Business Times) Four 99-year sites released in suburban areas to yield 2,045 private homes $650 psf ppr. The second is another confirmed-list site, a 240,661.7-sq-ft site located at Jurong West Street 41 opposite the Jurong Lake District, near Lakeside MRT Station. It can potentially generate 660 units with its 673,853.1 sq ft maximum GFA. It is expected to attract five to 13 bidders, with a top bid of $364-391 million or $540-580 psf ppr. The bidding results for this site would also likely determine future bid prices for the adjacent reserved-list plot which has been launched together. The reserved-list plot is expected to yield 545 units and attract five to seven bidders with a top bid of $370.6-404.3 million or $550-600 psf ppr. The last is a 95,346.7-sq-ft mixed residential and commercial site at Yishun Ring Road released under the confirmed list.
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The first is a 198,890.2 sq ft confirmed-list site located at Ang Mo Kio Avenue 2, which is expected to yield 680 units with its 696,123.6 sq ft maximum GFA. Bidding for the site is likely to be competitive since it is well located in an established estate surrounded by terraced houses with no recent launches, near the upcoming Mayflower MRT station, and the CHIJ St Nicholas Girls' School. The site is expected to draw seven to 15 bidders with a top bid of $$390-452.5 million or $560Back to Contents

SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 It can support 160 units with its 266,970.8-sqft GFA. The site is expected to do relatively well with three to five bids given its proximity to the Yishun town centre, its mixed use status and the lack of private housing in the region. (Source: Business Times) Bukit Timah multiple-lease sites attracts $73.8 m top bid residential with shorter leasehold properties is uncertain. The large number of bids suggests that developers are confident of demand, particularly from buyers who are retired. The high price and the number of bids could also be due to the attractive location of the site, being in an established residential estate near the nature reserve. The estimated breakeven cost and selling cost are $700 psf and $900 psf to $1,100 psf respectively. (Source: Business Times) Commercial M+S release details for Bugis project

The 1.02-hectare site located at Jalan Jurong Kechil in Upper Bukit Timah with 60-year, 45year and 30-year lease tenure options attracted a total of 23 bids 22 for the 60year tenure, and one for the 45-year tenure, with the top bid of bid $73.8 million or $481.51 psf ppr from World Class Developments (North), a subsidiary of Aspial Corporation. The large number of bidders was unexpected since demand for properties
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The second development project by M+S is DUO, a 99-year mixed development project with two towers of residential, retail, hotel and Grade A office space in Bugis. The project which will be directly connected to the Bugis MRT station will have a 1.8 million sq-ft GFA,
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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78 of which 45% or 810,000 sq ft will be allocated to the 50-storey residential tower boasting 660 units. 15% of the GFA or 270,000 sq ft will be allocated to a 300-room, five-star hotel with the remaining 40% or 720,000 sq ft allocated to offices and shops (mainly offices). These will be found in the 39storey tower. M+S plans to complete the project by Q2 2017, and launch the residential units in early 2013. It is expected to enjoy high demand for both the residential and office components. (Source: Business Times) MBFCs Tower 3 secure new leases The overall commitment level at Tower 3 of Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) has hit 76% or almost 960,000 sq ft with new leases from Lego Singapore and the international legal firm Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy
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LLP. Tenants who have already been secured prior to this includes DBS Bank, Ashurst LLP, Clifford Chance, Wong Partnership, Mead Johnson and McGraw-Hill. The 46-storey tower offers 1.3 million sq ft of prime Grade A office space. The retail component of MBFC, the 179,000-sq-ft Marina Bay Link Mall is 100% leased. The net increase in demand for islandwide office space in Q3 was 764,237 sq ft, bringing the total figure for Q1 to Q3 to 1.69 million sq ft, compared to 2.3 million sq ft. There is an estimated 1.4 million sq ft of office space that would be built in 2012, compared to three million sq ft last year. 2.6 million sq ft of upcoming office space in 2013 will be from the Asia Square Tower 2 in the CBD, Jem next to Jurong East MRT station and The Metropolis in Buona Vista.

(Source: Business Times)

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78

Non-Landed Residential Resale Property Transactions for the Week of Oct 30 Nov 6
Postal District 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 Project Name THE BEACON RIVER PLACE THE REGENCY AT TIONG BAHRU RIVER PLACE MARINA COLLECTION CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY CARIBBEAN AT KEPPEL BAY TELOK BLANGAH HOUSE GOLD COAST CONDOMINIUM PALM GREEN PARC REGENCY WESTCOVE CONDOMINIUM CITYLIGHTS CITYLIGHTS SUITES 123 MERA SPRINGS CITY SQUARE RESIDENCES KENTISH GREEN THE METZ RIVERGATE LUMA RIVERGATE THE IMPERIAL PARC SOPHIA Area (sqft) 969 786 1,636 1,033 2,185 893 883 3,810 1,475 1,130 1,367 1,163 678 1,356 495 1,550 1,518 1,098 581 1,507 743 1,550 1,410 614 Transacted Price ($) 1,380,000 1,160,000 2,308,888 1,450,000 4,370,000 1,488,000 1,460,000 4,572,000 1,530,000 1,168,000 1,360,000 950,000 1,150,000 2,020,000 730,000 2,090,000 1,800,000 980,000 1,532,000 3,345,540 1,500,000 3,080,000 2,650,000 1,020,000 Price Tenure ($ psf) 1,425 99 1,476 99 1,411 FH 1,403 99 2,000 99 1,666 99 1,654 99 1,200 FH 1,038 FH 1,033 FH 995 FH 817 99 1,696 99 1,489 99 1,474 FH 1,348 FH 1,186 FH 893 99 2,636 FH 2,220 FH 2,020 FH 1,987 FH 1,879 FH 1,662 FH
Postal District 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 14 Project Name UE SQUARE PARC MACKENZIE 8 NAPIER ST REGIS RESIDENCES SINGAPORE LATITUDE LATITUDE BELMOND GREEN ASTRID MEADOWS WATERFALL GARDENS HOLLAND PEAK PROXIMO CLIFTEN WILLYN VILLE HOLLANDSWOOD COURT SOLEIL @ SINARAN PARK INFINIA AT WEE NAM BUCKLEY RESIDENCE PARK INFINIA AT WEE NAM THE SHELFORD AMANINDA HILLCREST ARCADIA THE ARTE CALARASI THE CALLISTA LE REVE Area Transacted Price Tenure (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) 1,561 2,350,000 1,506 929 1,098 1,550,000 1,412 FH 2,777 9,500,000 3,421 FH 2,756 7,425,000 2,695 999 2,766 5,969,700 2,158 FH 2,766 5,959,200 2,154 FH 1,302 2,320,000 1,781 FH 1,356 2,415,000 1,781 FH 3,380 6,000,000 1,775 FH 915 1,450,000 1,585 FH 1,475 2,200,000 1,492 FH 1,184 1,748,000 1,476 FH 1,755 2,170,000 1,237 FH 2,131 1,968,000 923 99 581 1,230,000 2,116 99 1,464 2,930,000 2,001 FH 517 960,000 1,858 FH 1,442 2,600,000 1,803 FH 1,453 2,440,000 1,679 FH 1,249 1,850,000 1,482 FH 1,798 1,698,000 945 99 1,528 1,950,000 1,276 FH 1,184 1,320,000 1,115 FH 883 950,000 1,076 999 1,076 1,250,000 1,161 FH

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78

Postal District 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 Project Name CASSIA VIEW ASTORIA PARK WANG LODGE WING FONG COURT EUNOSVILLE FUYUEN COURT THE SOVEREIGN THE SEAFRONT ON MEYER PEBBLE BAY GRAND DUCHESS AT ST PATRICK'S GRAND DUCHESS AT ST PATRICK'S TANJONG RIA CONDOMINIUM COSTA RHU VILLA MARTIA THE GRANDIFLORA EURO-ASIA LODGE BAYSHORE PARK THE CLEARWATER EASTWOOD REGENCY BAYWATER AQUARIUS BY THE PARK THE CLEARWATER FERRARIA PARK CONDOMINIUM DAHLIA PARK CONDOMINIUM CASA PASIR RIS THE EDGEWATER LIVIA Area Transacted Price Tenure (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) 1,206 1,310,000 1,087 FH 1,195 1,200,000 1,004 99 1,012 850,000 840 FH 1,055 838,000 794 FH 1,701 1,230,000 723 102 1,690 1,100,000 651 FH 2,637 4,360,000 1,653 FH 1,604 2,600,000 1,621 FH 2,174 3,100,000 1,426 99 1,356 1,910,000 1,408 FH 1,916 2,630,000 1,373 FH 1,206 1,417,000 1,175 99 1,345 1,560,000 1,159 99 1,249 1,438,000 1,152 FH 1,076 1,080,000 1,003 FH 1,324 1,225,000 925 FH 936 1,085,000 1,159 99 657 730,000 1,112 99 1,195 1,300,000 1,088 FH 1,292 1,300,000 1,006 99 893 898,000 1,005 99 1,302 1,225,000 941 99 1,324 1,220,000 921 FH 1,292 1,100,000 852 FH 1,141 868,000 761 946 2,336 1,580,000 676 FH 1,539 1,555,000 1,010 99 Postal District 18 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 Project Name TAMPINES COURT THE QUARTZ KOVAN MELODY RIVERVALE CREST RIVERVALE CREST RAFFLESIA CONDOMINIUM CLOVER BY THE PARK THE GARDENS AT BISHAN GRANDEUR 8 FAR HORIZON GARDENS THE CASCADIA GARDENVISTA GRAND REGENCY SYMPHONY HEIGHTS HUME PARK II SIGNATURE PARK HUME PARK I PANDAN VALLEY HUME PARK I THE CENTRIS THE MAYFAIR NORTHVALE HILLVIEW HEIGHTS CHESTNUT VILLE NORTHVALE MAYSPRINGS PHOENIX HEIGHTS Area Transacted Price Tenure (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) 1,722 1,180,000 685 101 1,421 1,591,000 1,120 99 1,453 1,500,000 1,032 99 926 828,000 894 99 936 800,000 854 99 1,195 1,320,000 1,105 99 2,174 2,172,000 999 99 1,206 1,200,000 995 99 1,421 1,268,000 892 99 1,238 975,000 788 99 1,098 1,699,000 1,547 FH 1,173 1,460,000 1,244 99 1,119 1,272,000 1,136 FH 1,033 1,150,000 1,113 FH 1,023 1,100,000 1,076 FH 1,690 1,750,000 1,036 FH 1,270 1,208,000 951 FH 2,024 1,920,000 949 FH 1,345 1,205,000 896 FH 1,292 1,550,000 1,200 99 1,184 1,080,000 912 99 689 720,000 1,045 99 1,679 1,625,000 968 FH 2,077 1,820,000 876 999 1,324 1,050,000 793 99 1,292 990,000 766 99 1,335 750,000 562 99

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SINGAPORE PROPERTY WEEKLY Issue 78

Postal District 25 26 26 27 28

Project Name CASABLANCA SEASONS PARK FOREST HILLS CONDOMINIUM EUPHONY GARDENS SERENITY PARK

Area Transacted Price Tenure (sqft) Price ($) ($ psf) 1,109 980,000 884 99 1,292 1,090,000 844 99 1,163 908,000 781 99 1,109 830,000 749 99 1,324 1,280,000 967 FH

NOTE: This data only covers non-landed residential resale property transactions with caveats lodged with the Singapore Land Authority. Typically, caveats are lodged at least 2-3 weeks after a purchaser signs an OTP, hence the lagged nature of the data.

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