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Introduction
Appropriate policy formulation, planning and programmed implementation are keys to socioeconomic development of a country. Accurate projection of data plays an important role in providing policy makers with information and analysis that are required for policy formulation, planning, programme design and implementation for maintaining a sustainable socio-economic development in future. Projections of population and food grain production are intended to be useful for farmers, governments, agribusiness industries and policy makers. This sort of projection is crucial for developing countries like Bangladesh with a large size of population, small size of land area, low per capita income, high level of poverty, persistent food shortage, prolonged dependency on foreign aid, and low productivity in food grain sector. Since its independence in 1971, Bangladesh has been considering high population growth as a number one problem for the economy. Although it strived to reduce population growth; the size of population became almost double over last three decade from 72 million in 1972 to 140 million in 2005 with an average increase by over 2 million per year .This enormous size of population living in a land of 145567 sq kilometre (with a density of over 1000 people per sq km) has posed a serious challenge for future development of the economy in following ways:
putting huge pressure on environment and available resources; limiting agricultural

growth and food grain production through reducing arable land for housing and nonagricultural purposes; raising requirement for food grain; raising the number of poor population thus slowing down the rate of poverty reduction Similarly, the food grain requirement also increased to double over the same period. Although, the domestic net food grain production increased by three times during this period; there are growing concerns that future food grain production will be constrained by reduction of arable land due to acquisition for housing, rapid urbanization , infrastructure development etc., and lack of technical progress and modernization in agriculture. The increase in net food grain production might be attributed to a shift from local varieties to modern high yielding varieties. Most countries including Bangladesh consider domestic food grain production as an important factor for food price stabilization and food security, and thereby pursue food self-sufficiency policies, in large part to avoid macroeconomic and political instability from food price shocks. The projection of population and food grain production has increasingly become an important tool for development planning in many developing countries like Bangladesh, with the primary Purposes : to (i) help policy makers develop appropriate population and food policies, (ii) help decide future investments and decisions on food grain production to improve food security, (iii) aid in addressing population and environmental issues, and (iv) allow for planning of future food requirement, as well as to identify national infrastructure and research and development requirements. Understanding the size of population, their demand for food grain and net domestic food grain production are keys to the development of policies on population and food to ensure sustainable development in Bangladesh. Although the debate over

the value and effectiveness of the technical analysis of projection of population and food grain production still remains substantial along with consideration of costs, seasonal variation, uncertainty, risk involved etc.; technical analysis is based on the argument that the movements of population and food grain production are not random rather they move in trends, which are somewhat predictable. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to estimate and analyse population size, their food grain requirement and food grain production in Bangladesh by 2020 with a view to providing policymakers and government with information for policy formulation and planning.

Food production growth at a glance:

Total farm holding: 1,47,16,000 Total area: 14.845 million hectares Cultivable land: 8 million hectares Current fallow land: 0.469m hectares Annual Food Production: 31.9m MT Annual Food demand : 31.9m MT

Challenges of Food grain production:

Loss of arable land Bangladesh has lost about 1 million ha of productive arable land from 1983 to 1996 (BBS, 1999). That is about 80,000 ha of agricultural land per year are going out of crop production. Major factors responsible for land loss are urbanization, human settlement, building of infrastructure, and river erosion. The loss indeed is very alarming and therefore, needs to be addressed immediately. Imbalanced use of fertilizers About 60% of arable lands of Bangladesh are deficient in N, P, and K. Organic matter content of soils is much below the critical level of 1.5%. Farmers normally use urea in recommended doses. Because of high prices, they apply P and K fertilizers at the rates that are far below the recommended amount. Chemical fertilizers are not normally integrated with organic manures. It is thus evident that farmers virtually do not use balanced fertilizers that are necessary for high productivity. Inefficient water use Water use efficiency in Bangladesh is extremely low. On the average, 25-30% of irrigation water is used by crops and the rest is lost due to faulty flood irrigation system. Conservation of rain water during monsoon is virtually non-existent that could be utilized for irrigating crops during dry season. Studies show that irrigation with surface water

instead of underground water might reduce the vulnerability to hazards of climate change. Lack of quality seeds Of the total seed requirement, only about 6% quality seeds were supplied in 2003-2004 although seed as an input could increase crop production by 10-15% . Contribution of private sector and NGOs to quality seed production is still insignificant because they lack costly seed preservation and processing facilities. They have to depend on BADC for seed processing. It may be noted that farmers low quality seeds still meet about 95% seed requirement that is considered to be one of the major constraints to crop productivity. Unfair price of agricultural produces Productive farmers of Bangladesh mainly belong to small and marginal categories. These farmers do not have either Farmers Association or Farmers Co-operative to bargain for fair prices of their produces. They are thus forced to sell their produces at low prices to intermediaries. Since the farmers are often unable to meet procurement requirements of the government, they cannot sell their produces at the price fixed by the government.

Relation between Food production and Population growth In 1985-86, net food grain production and food grain requirements were 14239.2 and 16605.8 thousand tones respectively indicating a food grain deficit by 2366.6 thousand tones. Net food grain production exceeded food grain requirement in 1999-00 and continued this trend by 2007-08 (Figure 1)

Figure 1: Net Total Food Grain Production (NTFP) and Food Grain Requirement (FR) in Bangladesh Table 1: Computations for the 5-year Simple Moving Average (SMA) Year 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 Population(million) SMA population 98.1 100.3 102.5 102.5 104.7 104.6 106.8 106.8 108.9 108.9 111.0 110.9 113.0 113.0 115.0 115.0 117.0 117.2 119.0 119.5 122.1 121.8 124.3 124.0 126.5 126.2 128.1 128.0 129.8 129.9 NTFP 14239.2 14591.1 14558.3 14650.5 16449.0 16615.9 17085.4 17263.1 16965.7 16010.0 16877.6 18015.3 18329.3 19361.8 22129.5 23791.4 SMA-NTFP

14897.6 15373.0 15871.8 16412.8 16875.8 16788.0 16840.4 17026.4 17239.6 17718.8 18942.7 20325.4 21334.1 22425.9

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

131.5 133.5 135.2 137.0 138.8 140.6 142.4

131.6 133.4 135.2 137.0 138.8

23058.5 23788.4 24477.9 23420.7 24569.3 25629.1 26942.3

23449.1 23707.4 23863.0 24377.1 25007.8

Figure 2: Population Size and 5-Year Simple Moving Average (SMA)

On the other hand the SMA-NTFP data set varies from original NTFP observations. This variation is apparent from column 4 (NFTP) and 5 (SMA-NTFP) in the Table 2. For instance, in 1993-94, the figures for actual food grain production (NTFP) and randomly estimated food grain production (SMA-NTFP) are very similar- 16965.7 and 16840.7 thousand tonnes respectively but in 1994-95, the value of NTFP (16010) is much smaller than estimated SMA-NTFP value (17026); whereas in 1999-00, this value of NTFP (22129.5) is much greater than the value of SMA-NTFP (21334.1). This result suggests that the food grain production in Bangladesh has got seasonal and cyclical trends, and it is subject to some risks and uncertainty that might be caused by natural calamities such as floods, cyclone, drought, over-rainfalls etc and/or originated from market forces such as demand, supply, prices etc. This trend of fluctuation in estimated food grain production is presented in Figure 3.

As mentioned earlier the trends of true observations and randomly generated (through SMA) stochastic observations of the size of population are similar as shown in Figure 2. This result is expected and realistic in terms of the nature of the data (population).

Figure 3: Net Total Food grain Production (NTFP) and 5-Year Simple Moving Average (SMA)

Structural Change in Production 1. Rice Agricultural growth, over the past 20 years, has centered on dry season food grain production, particularly irrigated rice. In fact, food grains account for virtually all of the growth in gross farm revenue since independence. Rice alone has accounted for over 90% of that growth. The big surge in winter season Boro rice production has brought with it a decline in area planted with pulses, oilseeds and other traditional dry-season crops, though value and output have remained roughly % instant .Because of rapid growth in rice coupled with stagnation in non food grains agricultural growth in Bangladesh has generated a production structure increasingly concentrated on rice. Among Bangladesh's three major rice crops, the dry-season Boro crop has dominated growth in rice production. Since independence, Boro rice production has grown at over 7% per year,

compared to only 2% for the Aman crop and -1% for Aus. As a consequence, the pattern of production seasonality in food grains has altered dramatically.The two winter season food grains, Boro rice and wheat, accounted for only 5% of annual food grain production in 1972. Yet today they account for over 40%. The new irrigated HYV rice technology has stimulated substantial growth input markets by increasing the demand for farm labor as well as purchased inputs of fertilizer and pesticides. Labor demand per hectare increases by about 50% with the shift to HYV packages, while fertilizer use jumps by over 300%. Similarly, demand for irrigation equipment has increased perceptibly since import liberalization 1988. Since then, irrigated area has grown by about 3% per year compared to only 0.5% per year in the 1960s and 1970s. Because farmers harvest Boro paddy at the onset of the rainy season, keeping quality and storage is difficult. Consequently, most prefer to sell their Boro paddy, while retaining Aman for long-term storage. As a result, growth in Boro rice production has stimulated even faster growth in volumes marketed. Overall, the HYV technology has contributed to greatly expanded trading activity in both input and output markets.

2. Wheat After independence, in 1971, Bangladesh faced an acute food shortage. Production of rice. The main crops, declined because of the disruption of virtuality all agriculture activities during the War of liberation, and also due to various natural calamities, such as floods, droughts, cyclones, and rapid population growth. It was realized that thought about 80% of the total cropped area of Bangladesh is devoted to rice cultivation, rice alone could not meet the food requirement of the country. Wheat was therefore chosen as an alternate food crop in the winter season, which remains mostly free from natural calamities, In 1975 the government imported 4000 m tons of seed. Prior to 1975-76, wheat was grown sporadically and was almost an unknown crop in Bangladesh. Today, among the cereal crops, it is next to rice in importance. It occupies about 4% of the total cropped area and 11% of the area cropped in the Rabi season, and contributies seven percent to the total output of food cereals. The common cultivated varieties are locally known as known as Sonalika, Kanchan, Balaka, Ananda, Akbar, Barkat and Aghrani. Table 2: Population growth and Wheat production from 1971-2005 Year 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 Mid year population(million) 72.60 74.30 76.40 78.00 79.90 81.80 83.70 85.60 Wheat 113.0 90.0 109.0 115.0 215.0 255.0 343.0 486.0

1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

87.60 89.91 91.90 93.90 96.00 98.10 100.30 102.50 104.70 106.80 108.90 111.00 113.00 115.00 117.00 119.00 122.10 124.30 126.50 128.10 129.80 131.50 133.45 135.00 136.20 138.05 139.10

827.0 1092.0 966.0 1098.00 1229.00 1483.00 1060.00 1092.00 1048.00 1022.00 890.00 1004.00 1065.00 1176.00 1131.00 1245.00 1369.00 1454.00 1802.80 1908.40 1840.00 1673.00 1606.00 1596.70 1253.30 976.00 735.00

The total area for wheat cultivation now extends to about 804,703 ha and the annual production is about 18,02,815 m tons (table). The country requires about 100,000 m tons of wheat seed annually. About 20,000 m tons of seed is supplied from the public sector and the rest (80,000 m tons) comes from farmers.

Table 3: Area and production of wheat during 1999-94 to 1997-98 Total area (ha) Year 1993-94 615184.14 11310501 Production (m tons)

1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98

639429.38 701104.82 707842.98 804702.55

12449901 13691301 14541001 18028151

Figure 4: wheat production in Bangladesh with different regions

3. Potato The potato was introduced in this subcontinent in the sixteenth century. It was grown then in small plots as a vegetable. Today potato has emerged as a major crop in Bangladesh and is being cultivated on an area of 520 thousand ha. The total production is 7800 thousand tones with an average yield of 15 t/ha. Though Bangladesh has become a major potato producer in the SAARC

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countries, the status of this crop has remained vegetable in the country i.e. what it was four centuries ago. The time has come now for all of us to understand and appreciate the role potato can play in the present situation of Bangladesh. A developing country like Bangladesh needs not only the quantity of food but sufficient quantity and quality of a balanced nutritious food. It is a proven fact that if the food available provides balanced nutrition, the food intake is relatively low, e.g. in developed countries, where people consume balanced food and their dietary intake is relatively low. Whereas, in the developing countries the food availability is not well balanced, the dietary intake is higher because people tend to eat more to compensate for the poor nutrition. This results in greater demand for food and higher pressure on the limited land available to produce required quantity of food. Keeping in mind the overall food and nutrition security of the country, Bangladesh should identify and promote a crop which is not only highly productive but also nutritionally balanced. It is believed and proven beyond doubt that potato meets both these requirements. Study related to the above issue is not yet done in Bangladesh. Therefore, the study on Potato for Food Security in Bangladesh was taken with the following objectives. Area under potato and the total production have been increasing steadily and touched a high during the year 2007-08 (with record production of 7.8 million mt) that led to an unprecedented glut (Appendix Table 1). We were not able to utilize the surplus potatoes produced in the country this year hence a lot of wastage of the valuable food occurred. Growth rate Percentage of Area, Production and Yield of potatoes in Bangladesh during the last two decades. Table 4: Potato production Growth Rate (%) 1980-81 to 198990 1990-91 to 199900 2000-01 to 200708 4. Maize Maize is one of the oldest and most important crop in the world. It is the highest yielding grain crop having multiple uses. The average yield of maize in 2003 in the world was 4.47 tons per hectare as compared to 2.67 and 3.84 tons per hectare for wheat and rice (paddy), respectively (FAO, 2004). Now maize has become an important cereal crop in Bangladesh. The area, production, and yield of wheat and maize from 1999-00 to 2005-06 are presented in Table 1. It is revealed from the table that area, production, and yield of wheat are decreasing in each year from 1999-00 to 2005-06, while it is increasing for maize in each year during the same period. Its position is 1st among the cereals in terms of yield [(maize: 5.30 mt/ha; wheat: 1.60 mt/ha and rice: 2.52 mt/ha), BBS (2006)] but in terms of area and production, it ranks 3rd just after rice and wheat. Because of more nutritious status, it Area 3.06 6.91 16.96 Production 2.39 8.79 16.03 Yield -0.67 1.88 -0.93

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could be good source of nutrients for under nourished and mal-nourished population in Bangladesh. It is now widely used in the poultry farms as feed and also used for human consumption in roasted and fried form. Demand for maize is increasing day by day in the world as well as in Bangladesh due to its diversified uses. If the rigid food habit of Bangladeshis is to be diversified from rice to maize, it would probably be possible to reduce food shortage to a great extent. Because, it is a high yielding and low-cost crop compared to rice and wheat. So, comprehensible plan is needed to make the crop popular and sustainable. Table 5: Population growth and Maize production from 1971-2005 Year 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 Mid year population(million) 72.60 74.30 76.40 78.00 79.90 81.80 83.70 85.60 87.60 89.91 91.90 93.90 96.00 98.10 100.30 102.50 104.70 106.80 108.90 111.00 113.00 115.00 117.00 119.00 122.10 124.30 126.50 128.10 129.80 Maize 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.00 1.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.90 3.20 3.30 3.00 3.00 7.00 15.00 29.10 32.00 40.70 65.30 84.50 120.70

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2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

131.50 133.45 135.00 136.20 138.05 139.10

149.20 172.40 117.30 241.00 356.00 522.00

The ways to raise food production

It is regrettable that the agriculture system of the country is old fashioned and inappropriate. As a result, every year the harvest is not desirable enough and farmers lose their profit. Sometimes, they even can not cover their investment. So they can not provide enough crops for the country or the country's export business. For this reason, the demand and price of crops increase simultaneously, affecting not only the poor but also the countrys economy. At present, this situation has become one of the major problems in Bangladesh. However, this problem can be solved if the government takes the following steps. First, the government should be more concern about farmers, the primary labor force in Bangladesh. It should distribute the country's annual budget in such a way as to provide enough capital to the agricultural development. The government should help farmers obtain necessary loans from the bank and provide them with modern equipment to increase productivity. Second, the government should establish more advanced agricultural institutions from which the people can receive educational as well as vocational training. There is only one agriculture university in Bangladesh, far from enough to meet the needs of the population. So they should build more universities. To provide more agricultural engineers or specialists who can help farmers to acquire modern knowledge about farming as well as a new agriculture system. Third, the government should ensure appropriate prices for farmers to sell their crops. Many companies cheat farmers and buy the crops at low prices, but the government is not concerned. This affects farmers seriously because they can not support their family or the next farming season. The government should make laws to protect farmers right. If farmers receive the right return for their crops, they will be encouraged to grow better quality crops in the future However, all of the above solutions have one disadvantage, namely, the need of more capital, which is very difficult to acquire for a third world country like Bangladesh. For this reason, the government has to endeavor to arrange the capital by increasing the income tax or levying more tax on necessary goods, but again, it will ultimately affect the middle class including some farmers. The government may apply to the World Bank for loans to develop the agricultural system. This appears to be the best solution. In conclusion, the government should consider this issue seriously in order to greatly increase productivity as well as the countrys national revenue.

Conclusion

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Bangladesh is a small developing country in South Asia and most of the people depend on farming .Agriculture is the backbone of Bangladeshis economy. The government should consider this issue seriously in order to greatly increase productivity as well as the countrys national revenue. At the same time population growth must be controlled .

Reference

http://www.moa.gov.bd/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agriculture_in_Bangladesh www.banglajol.info/index.php