Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Intellisys
10 December 2012
Contents
Introduction...................................................................................................................... 3
Timing .......................................................................................................................... 3
Value ........................................................................................................................... 4
Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 4
How to use the report ....................................................................................................... 5
Over Valued ............................................................... 6
Aerospace & Defence
Automobiles & Parts
Banks
Beverages
Chemicals
Life Assurance
Media & Entertainment
Mining
Real Estate
Support Services
Telecommunication Services
Transport
Page 2 of 15
Intellisys
10 December 2012
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will
identify those shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and
information noisy trading environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically,
before the official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the
two primary drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that
influence investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been
established as rules that reflect market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well
as the daily pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find
stories for their investment meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading
indicators appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as
well as some 74% accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks
analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
Page 3 of 15
Intellisys
10 December 2012
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a
daily basis, Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the
Consolidated Income Statement but also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and
then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment
research for the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend
themselves to accurate cross-border analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as
realistically valid as possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of
market levels but a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating
operating environment set against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a
modest range of some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the
intuitive result. Intellysis approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies
as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme.
However, subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to
challenge their established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors
from falling in love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems
active position monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and
not separate from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment
options with their financial advisers.
Page 4 of 15
Intellisys
10 December 2012
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
21.16
6.36
9.36
2.20
21.69
6.55
Neutral
Neutral
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
23.50
324.70
0.40
19.50
189.00
0.24
82.00
342.30
17.00
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
JD SPORTS FASHION
731.00
570.00
863.00
Neutral
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Latest 12 month
Hi/Lo for the
share price
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong
Buy
Strong
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
38
4
1.56
0.94
112
415
-62
1.05
0.67
0.88
1341
0.47
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
eta measures a
shares
volatility/risk
relative to market
(see below)
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta of
1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from the
market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
Page 5 of 15
Intellisys
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
338.40 268.70
239.50 217.00
213.50 168.50
385.40 337.30
896.50 692.14
1131.00 881.50
1636.00 1400.00
12M Hi
363.60
460.00
239.50
414.90
913.50
1131.00
1780.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
223.40 170.20
435.60 284.10
75.50
48.25
15.00
6.80
12M Hi
237.20
436.00
79.00
16.25
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Price 12M Lo
251.55 150.55
643.60 478.25
46.74
23.46
299.00 194.00
1485.50 1228.50
12M Hi
256.75
644.10
46.74
300.30
1662.50
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
477.90 348.00
1878.50 1346.00
2800.00 2150.50
12M Hi
483.00
1880.50
2868.50
Beta
1.95
1.43
1.28
1.09
Target
154
1007
58
-143
1250
Beta
1.89
1.16
1.85
1.36
1.70
ST Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Target
524
1594
3373
Beta
0.49
0.54
1.00
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
C RODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
JOHNSON MATTHEY
VIC TREX
SYNTHOMER
ZOTEFOAMS
Target
213
413
85
25
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
BARR (AG)
DIAGEO
SABMILLER
Beta
0.67
0.55
0.87
1.32
1.09
0.69
0.58
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
BARC LAYS
HSBC HDG. (ORD $0.50)
LLOYDS BANKING GROUP
ROYAL BANK OF SC TL.GP.
STANDARD C HARTERED
Target
515
517
245
326
592
895
1355
Under Valued
10 December 2012
Price
2347.00
230.70
2443.00
1630.00
190.00
200.00
12M Lo
1708.00
129.00
1758.39
1070.00
127.40
109.00
12M Hi
2501.00
240.30
2573.00
1630.00
251.00
225.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Target
3895
308
6248
1725
324
191
Page 6 of 15
Beta
1.05
1.02
1.44
1.14
1.19
0.98
Intellisys
Over Valued
Price
259.10
198.80
1005.00
1728.00
550.00
290.10
48.50
248.25
717.00
653.00
1217.00
50.00
101.25
520.00
798.00
162.00
116.10
63.00
1110.00
2845.00
12M Lo
236.50
87.30
660.00
1177.00
399.30
235.50
35.50
180.50
441.70
240.00
1095.00
38.00
76.00
508.00
446.20
107.30
76.95
34.86
755.00
1900.00
12M Hi
320.80
198.80
1029.00
1728.00
556.00
344.00
54.50
253.75
753.00
657.00
1489.00
66.50
103.62
725.00
815.50
163.00
123.20
63.10
1149.00
2897.00
Price 12M Lo
1073.00 685.00
593.00 436.50
113.50
99.25
322.80 181.60
217.50 139.70
1363.00 905.50
1890.00 874.50
2030.00 1170.00
0.08
0.08
141.50 114.00
264.50 185.00
12M Hi
1244.00
670.00
149.50
328.00
243.90
1401.00
1890.00
2030.00
0.22
203.50
275.00
Target
-59
28
96
3240
61
-240
17
472
-127
267
861
82
38
34
233
30
138
-9
479
459
Beta
0.83
1.48
1.08
0.65
1.13
1.11
0.78
0.61
1.01
1.24
0.95
1.07
1.30
0.83
1.14
1.03
1.65
1.56
1.93
1.44
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Target
658
800
209
292
78
1011
2079
1862
0
334
195
Beta
0.76
1.14
1.33
1.36
2.12
0.98
1.25
1.44
0.82
1.58
1.12
Under Valued
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Over Valued
10 December 2012
Price
69.50
432.10
322.50
640.50
387.00
450.50
399.00
1090.00
4.38
255.90
2499.00
199.50
86.00
2224.00
651.25
1835.00
12M Lo
54.25
247.30
253.00
463.70
329.30
328.70
248.75
711.00
3.88
220.30
1755.00
162.70
83.00
1748.00
547.00
1397.00
12M Hi
92.00
437.10
358.50
747.50
483.70
450.50
403.75
1090.00
9.00
360.00
2518.00
213.00
219.50
2334.00
740.00
2236.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Target
128
480
633
736
384
353
331
1204
4
488
1798
207
83
2024
588
1830
Page 7 of 15
Beta
1.23
1.56
0.98
2.21
1.43
0.76
1.34
1.37
0.79
1.77
1.00
1.68
0.96
0.81
1.44
1.37
Intellisys
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
486.50 457.00
269.10 256.20
343.10 283.20
336.75 297.05
37.75
9.50
12M Hi
558.00
328.00
361.10
411.25
38.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
1485.00 1083.00
790.00 723.00
375.30 290.40
310.60 249.40
97.25
52.50
759.00 633.50
2416.00 1994.00
12M Hi
1486.00
858.00
375.30
341.20
180.00
779.00
2421.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Price 12M Lo
27.50
18.75
378.00 222.40
1305.00 1000.00
695.00 395.40
28.03
9.55
7.45
2.76
29.00
19.50
338.40 189.00
740.00 570.00
47.75
38.00
271.30 237.20
393.60 302.70
59.25
32.00
327.50 152.00
3704.00 2573.00
1084.00 633.00
49.00
23.00
12M Hi
29.50
378.00
1586.00
728.50
28.03
9.03
58.75
356.80
863.00
85.70
313.80
398.70
59.25
327.50
3712.00
1095.00
51.75
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Beta
0.47
0.43
0.63
0.71
0.83
Target
1157
1262
345
295
-143
910
3089
Beta
0.59
0.58
0.91
0.31
1.39
0.65
0.59
Target
32
338
917
262
36
3
105
468
1425
78
369
483
58
375
3449
615
34
Beta
0.72
0.51
1.31
0.95
1.56
1.11
1.01
0.68
0.47
1.24
0.94
0.73
1.02
0.44
0.68
0.57
1.29
Over Valued
Health
Stock
C ONSORT MEDIC AL
C ORIN GROUP
SMITH & NEPHEW
Target
638
208
233
287
27
Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
C ARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENC H C ONNEC TN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENC ER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERC ARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Under Valued
10 December 2012
Price 12M Lo
810.00 523.00
69.13
35.25
666.00 575.00
12M Hi
831.50
69.50
693.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Target
657
68
727
Page 8 of 15
Beta
0.46
0.67
0.36
Intellisys
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
666.00 435.00
302.50 245.00
66.13
55.25
12M Hi
720.50
319.75
139.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Price 12M Lo
754.00 469.00
339.00 166.00
34.00
16.25
438.10 400.00
144.80 105.80
196.50 120.00
12M Hi
774.00
365.60
47.25
717.00
174.00
230.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
1130.00 787.00
380.20 310.50
179.20 129.50
488.20 379.40
464.80 359.00
772.00 635.00
121.80
97.65
369.25 310.00
12M Hi
1231.00
405.00
180.40
489.60
489.40
790.00
121.80
388.50
Beta
0.37
0.91
0.74
Target
438
760
35
388
538
-239
Beta
0.75
1.21
0.80
1.06
0.94
0.98
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Target
431
-2517
1338
638
1828
2780
1479
1710
Beta
0.56
0.47
0.56
0.29
0.48
0.29
0.42
0.46
Over Valued
Target
648
260
92
Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
ADMIRAL GROUP
AMLIN
BEAZLEY
C ATLIN GROUP
HISC OX
JARDINE LLOYD THOMPSON
RSA INSURANC E GROUP
NOVAE GROUP
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Buy
Over Valued
10 December 2012
Price
2459.00
93.50
286.50
754.00
627.00
194.40
1650.00
497.00
314.00
107.30
7.43
139.60
389.50
536.00
2428.00
346.60
123.10
12M Lo
1841.00
26.50
149.40
657.25
456.20
120.70
1068.24
388.10
217.40
91.90
5.61
111.00
269.20
371.30
1508.00
183.30
88.45
12M Hi
2544.00
94.50
286.50
798.00
628.00
196.10
1727.01
518.00
337.00
174.00
12.25
154.30
391.00
548.50
2456.00
357.50
127.70
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Target
4945
47
755
755
631
172
1443
615
376
24
-208
458
310
673
1905
275
162
Page 9 of 15
Beta
0.99
1.63
1.01
0.40
0.90
0.92
1.18
1.35
1.04
1.25
1.20
0.97
0.81
0.73
0.98
0.91
1.23
Intellisys
10 December 2012
Over Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
AVIVA
C HESNARA
LEGAL & GENERAL
OLD MUTUAL
PRUDENTIAL
ST.JAMES'S PLAC E
Price 12M Lo
366.30 255.30
192.25 155.25
147.00
98.25
174.50 111.48
908.00 600.50
400.00 303.40
12M Hi
382.60
207.50
147.00
177.70
908.00
400.50
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
235.90 134.10
117.00
92.00
761.50 635.50
49.13
28.50
541.00 363.50
801.00 625.00
433.20 333.00
225.00 180.00
101.80
60.95
13.75
4.75
1177.00 1111.00
56.00
36.25
287.00 237.62
27.74
26.21
102.25
76.25
102.25
67.50
91.00
25.50
747.50 448.00
143.00
78.50
869.50 638.00
0.28
0.26
12M Hi
237.80
146.50
779.00
51.75
546.50
828.00
451.00
240.60
103.20
13.75
1294.00
57.50
377.50
30.02
119.50
106.50
91.00
750.00
144.00
880.00
6.27
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Price
1811.00
251.75
1347.00
2018.50
265.00
6390.00
3256.00
7.25
12M Lo
1664.00
221.25
991.00
1681.00
240.84
4596.00
2715.50
3.75
832.50
1035.00 785.80
12M Hi
2910.00
340.00
1399.00
2206.50
599.98
7775.00
3988.00
34.00
1502.00
1283.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Target
-295
812
69
1999
1852
90
301
533
772
247
1382
471
370
526
-236
1888
576
269
514
553
29
Beta
1.29
0.38
0.55
0.99
1.06
0.96
1.56
1.42
1.54
1.27
0.65
0.79
0.19
0.52
0.76
1.43
1.57
1.33
0.87
1.31
1.10
LT Rec
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Neutral
Target
3161
291
1006
3696
632
3121
3656
145
2430
1138
Beta
1.73
0.99
1.44
1.41
1.93
0.28
1.48
0.89
2.16
1.78
Under Valued
LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
ANGLO AMERIC AN
ANGLO PAC IFIC GROUP
ANTOFAGASTA
BHP BILLITON
LONMIN
RANDGOLD RESOURC ES
RIO TINTO
UK C OAL
VEDANTA RESOURC ES
XSTRATA
Target
1005
303
248
152
801
373
Price
1068.00
426.05
266.00
8.80
832.00
74.00
329.60
2163.50
359.00
1245.00
773.50
12M Lo
1000.50
391.95
248.20
7.86
688.00
73.00
322.30
2039.00
254.90
1242.00
620.50
12M Hi
1547.00
504.60
360.00
12.13
968.00
187.75
449.70
2489.00
373.40
1601.00
875.50
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Neutral
Target
1181
1487
-19
14
496
286
280
10462
244
770
795
Page 10 of 15
Beta
0.79
1.06
1.35
0.88
1.28
1.45
1.39
0.90
0.53
1.10
1.35
Beta
1.28
0.67
1.69
1.63
1.71
0.83
Intellisys
10 December 2012
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
132.00 102.70
353.90 285.00
3962.00 3125.00
12M Hi
140.00
365.00
3966.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Price
3.30
3000.50
352.00
602.00
1349.00
2.15
9.12
1900.00
69.50
23.13
12M Lo
2.54
2591.00
300.00
418.33
1317.50
2.05
5.88
1727.00
31.00
18.87
12M Hi
3.98
3111.50
423.00
622.00
1507.50
5.80
12.75
2300.00
101.50
27.38
ST Rec
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Price 12M Lo
338.40 238.00
555.00 444.00
28.38
22.75
730.25 543.50
2112.00 1495.00
155.50 121.75
113.00
83.10
484.70 312.90
480.90 345.20
230.00 164.00
813.00 612.00
350.50 291.10
132.00 110.25
365.00 280.25
54.00
32.50
475.50 298.10
558.00 459.70
243.20 195.00
232.60 109.25
187.00 130.00
287.40 162.70
1.40
1.40
297.70 213.25
12M Hi
352.10
555.00
34.25
740.00
2115.00
176.00
116.00
484.70
483.40
231.00
821.00
354.20
144.00
390.00
56.75
480.00
558.00
259.20
232.60
189.50
287.40
4.13
310.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Sell
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Neutral
Strong Buy
Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Beta
1.03
0.49
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.67
0.94
0.67
0.70
0.82
Price 12M Lo
141.90
87.50
2045.00 1428.00
399.00 292.40
293.75 235.00
23.00
18.25
560.50 369.16
173.50 135.00
78.25
58.00
1408.00 1275.00
295.10 247.70
Target
-295
812
69
1999
1852
90
301
533
772
247
1382
471
370
526
-236
1888
576
269
514
553
29
110
593
Beta
1.13
1.03
0.67
0.66
1.19
0.94
1.46
1.04
1.14
0.69
1.14
1.09
0.71
0.44
1.15
0.66
1.00
1.66
1.45
1.06
1.73
1.00
0.99
Over Valued
Target
32
5171
390
2612
36
12
3
1518
248
102
Under Valued
Real Estate
Stock
BIG YELLOW GROUP
BRITISH LAND
C APITAL & REGIONAL
C LS HOLDINGS
DERWENT LONDON
DEVELOPMENT SEC S.
GRAINGER
GREAT PORTLAND ESTATES
HAMMERSON
HELIC AL BAR
LAND SEC URITIES GROUP
C APITAL SHOPC TS.GROUP
MC KAY SEC URITIES
MUC KLOW (A & J) GROUP
QUINTAIN ESTATES & DEV.
SAVILLS
SHAFTESBURY
SEGRO
ST MODWEN PROPS.
TOWN C ENTRE SEC URITIES
UNITE GROUP
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPAC E GROUP
Beta
0.84
0.72
0.36
Over Valued
Target
244
302
3994
12M Hi
149.90
2074.00
461.90
314.00
23.25
595.50
231.75
93.50
1766.00
324.80
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Target
98
1048
1186
261
18
696
265
-62
1668
310
Page 11 of 15
Beta
0.82
1.38
1.00
1.12
0.84
0.80
0.85
0.54
0.77
0.72
Intellisys
10 December 2012
Over Valued
Price 12M Lo
12M Hi
340.90 197.10
342.70
190.60 132.00
191.20
9700.00 9175.00 10250.00
302.50 247.50
302.50
163.12 115.63
189.75
877.50 590.00
877.50
99.00
59.50
102.80
2.43
0.77
3.61
124.50
90.55
128.30
300.30 281.40
431.50
296.40 220.10
321.50
395.00 310.40
414.90
977.00 756.50 1105.00
73.65
63.25
152.50
1214.00 989.00 1373.00
1641.00 1166.00 1650.00
1309.00 966.00 1325.00
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Sell Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Beta
1.09
0.72
0.81
0.93
0.70
0.90
0.89
0.65
1.43
1.07
1.64
1.54
1.15
1.29
0.73
1.32
1.27
Over Valued
Support Services
Stock
AC AL
AGGREKO
AMEC
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABC OC K INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
C APITA
C OMMUNISIS
C OMPASS GROUP
BERENDSEN
DE LA RUE
DIGNITY
DIPLOMA
ELEC TROC OMP.
FILTRONA
G4S
HAYS
HOMESERVE
INTERSERVE
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVIC E GROUP
MANAGEMENT C NSL.GP.
MENZIES (JOHN)
MIC HAEL PAGE INTL.
MITIE GROUP
OFFIC E2OFFIC E
PAYPOINT
PREMIER FARNELL
REGUS
RENTOKIL INITIAL
REXAM
RIC ARDO
ROBERT WALTERS
RPC GROUP
RPS GROUP
SERC O GROUP
SHANKS GROUP
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
Target
91
97
9433
188
114
268
97
111
55
213
116
33
1541
95
994
1069
4199
Price 12M Lo
183.50 157.75
2244.00 1798.00
1062.00 865.00
383.40 196.90
1002.00 691.50
384.75 317.00
1039.00 840.00
299.00 192.25
759.50 602.00
36.25
24.00
729.00 577.50
581.50 412.00
936.50 868.00
1023.00 755.50
525.50 321.70
216.90 187.50
586.50 369.80
249.20 240.00
78.25
58.85
236.30 137.50
359.20 270.10
3130.00 1900.00
33.63
25.25
22.38
21.25
614.00 506.00
366.60 323.00
272.00 235.80
122.50 118.50
893.50 505.00
183.00 153.20
99.70
77.80
93.25
58.20
450.10 338.50
367.00 304.50
201.00 158.25
399.30 340.60
212.00 173.20
545.00 458.00
78.05
75.80
35.50
19.00
98.88
42.00
50.75
36.63
343.75 212.00
71.13
42.00
12M Hi
219.50
2400.00
1172.00
392.70
1002.00
410.50
1167.00
304.00
781.50
41.00
729.50
589.00
1075.00
1030.00
525.50
263.00
586.50
292.10
92.50
310.00
392.80
3130.00
35.00
39.50
652.00
497.00
300.80
163.75
893.50
228.80
117.50
93.50
461.40
391.00
264.63
447.00
256.60
602.00
113.00
35.50
99.00
50.75
354.88
72.50
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
LT Rec
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Sell
Buy
Sell
Sell
Buy
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Neutral
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Target
263
1125
917
267
557
673
690
382
431
61
538
828
522
665
353
271
301
240
101
424
588
1223
79
46
1106
273
289
200
602
233
92
46
516
401
265
449
208
483
140
44
42
51
526
157
Page 12 of 15
Beta
0.87
1.06
1.06
1.59
0.45
0.75
0.52
0.28
0.50
0.75
0.69
1.02
#NA
0.17
0.97
1.03
1.09
0.59
1.08
0.91
1.24
0.80
1.19
0.67
1.42
1.39
0.56
0.41
0.74
1.28
1.42
1.29
0.86
0.83
1.22
0.78
1.52
0.59
1.45
1.25
0.50
0.92
0.90
0.77
Intellisys
10 December 2012
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
C ABLE & WIRELESS C OMMS.
INMARSAT
KC OM GROUP
TELEC OM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price 12M Lo
235.10 187.00
36.48
27.28
600.00 390.80
71.15
65.75
887.00 612.00
161.85 156.90
12M Hi
236.80
45.16
602.00
85.20
895.00
191.25
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Sell
Price 12M Lo
220.50 175.60
357.50 288.00
1200.00 1080.00
732.00 373.19
188.00 175.70
804.50 460.00
1254.00 1086.00
178.90 164.50
277.50 159.60
309.60 230.40
69.75
31.00
12M Hi
220.50
425.00
1390.00
738.50
344.00
809.50
1412.00
252.00
277.50
312.60
91.75
ST Rec
LT Rec
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral Strong Buy
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Sell
Target
154
368
1247
439
412
298
1416
187
478
309
-27
Beta
1.31
0.98
0.80
0.76
0.99
0.80
0.94
1.33
1.40
0.93
0.90
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
C ENTRIC A
NATIONAL GRID
PENNON GROUP
SSE
SEVERN TRENT
UNITED UTILITIES GROUP
Beta
0.89
0.67
0.53
1.26
0.05
0.53
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
BBA AVIATION
BRAEMAR SHIPPING SVS.
C LARKSON
EASYJET
FIRST GROUP
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
GO-AHEAD GROUP
NATIONAL EXPRESS
NORTHGATE
STAGEC OAC H GROUP
WINC ANTON
Target
267
67
502
105
586
136
Price 12M Lo
337.00 278.80
707.00 597.50
604.00 598.00
1433.00 1209.00
1550.00 1454.00
689.50 589.00
12M Hi
341.30
714.00
796.00
1461.00
1796.00
736.00
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Target
462
786
735
1678
1413
627
Page 13 of 15
Beta
0.47
0.53
0.56
0.45
0.36
0.50
Intellisys
10 December 2012
DISCLAIMER
Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys (Intellisys) is the trading name of
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of
quoted company shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to
present an objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial
sector or stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and
proprietary systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to
be accurate but Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of the
source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely upon the
Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice specific to
their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial Services and
Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this report. No
representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness
or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or sufficiency of
any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In no event will
Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be liable to any other party
for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use of this report.
The Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports are not directed to any person in any jurisdiction
where (by reason of that persons nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or availability of the
Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys information may be prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such
prohibitions apply must not access the Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports. Neither this
document, nor any copy in whatever form of media, may be taken or transmitted into the United States,
Canada, Australia, Ireland, South Africa or Japan or into any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so.
Any failure to comply with this restriction may constitute a violation of relevant local securities laws.
Recipients of Intelligent Analysis Limited and/or Intellisys reports outside the UK are not covered by the
rules and regulations made for the protection of investors in the UK.
Any user distributing information taken from any Intelligent Analysis Limited or Intellisys report and/or the
Intellisys website, in whatever form, to any other person, agrees to attach a copy of this Disclaimer and the
Terms and Conditions of Use pages and obtain the agreement of such other person to comply with the
terms set forth.
Intellisys' published reports are published for information purposes and only available to market
counterparties, high net-worth and sophisticated individual investors.
No Intellisys report constitutes an offer or invitation to trade, sell, purchase or acquire any shares or other
financial instruments in any company or any interest therein, nor shall it form the basis of any contract
entered into for the sale of shares or any other financial instrument in any company.
Intelligent Analysis Limited believes that the information within each and any of its reports to be correct, but
its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is
given by any person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information and no responsibility or liability is
accepted for the accuracy or sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise.
Intelligent Analysis Limited (including its Directors, employees and representatives) or a connected person
may have positions in or options or other financial instruments on any of the securities mentioned within a
report, and may buy, sell or offer to purchase or sell such securities from time to time, subject to restrictions
imposed by internal rules.
Page 14 of 15
Intellisys
10 December 2012
Subscribers, and casual reader, are reminded that the value of shares in any company may go up or down
and that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Intelligent Analysis Limited is not registered with or regulated by any financial regulatory authority and does
not offer, provide or purport to provide or offer investment advice.
Page 15 of 15