How to Calculate and Understand Two and Three Independent Events

Clayton Flanders Grade 10 BB&N AP Statistics 2004

 Here is a quick overview of how to calculate the probability of two independent events. However, first some definitions.

 A random experiment is any procedure or situation that produces a definite outcome that may not be predictable in advance. Example - Seeing how many heads you get flipping a coin 4 times. An outcome is a single possible result of a random experiment. Example - the 2nd flip of the coin landing heads up.

 An event is any collection of outcomes.

Ex. - The last 3 flips of the coin had two heads up and one tails up. Two events are said to be independent if the outcome of one event does not help us determine how likely the other event is.
Definitions taken from the book Statistics and Data Analysis by Andrew F. Siegel and Charles J. Morgan

One event OR another

OR is a connector which combines the outcomes of two events. Example- The outcome of wearing a red hat OR a green shirt is fulfilled when wearing a red hat by itself, a green shirt by itself, and it is also fulfilled by wearing both a red hat and a green shirt at the same time.

One event AND another

AND is another connector which is fulfilled when both events happen simultaneously. Example- wearing a red hat AND a green shirt can happen only if a red hat is worn while a green shirt is worn at the same time.

How to calculate an AND statement

An AND statement such as P(A and B) is calculated by multiplying the P(A) by the P(B). The resulting probability is the probability of these two events happening at the same time.

Example- The probability of Erik Johnson wearing a green shirt (GS) is .34. The probability of him wearing a red hat (RH) is .12. What is the probability of Erik Johnson wearing both a green shirt and a red hat? P(GS and RH)=P(GS) x P(RH) P(GS and RH)= .34 x .12 P(GS and RH)= .0408 Note - all these example problems assume that the two events are independent from one another and not mutually exclusive

The relationship between AND and OR

P(A) P(B)

P(A) + P(B)
1 2 1

Note- the numbers above correspond to how many times that particular area of the figure is counted in the overall probability, which means unless all the numbers in the figure are 1,then it is not an OR statement. Since the P(A and B) is counted twice in the figure on the right, the P(A and B) must be subtracted once to make it the P(A or B).

The relationship between AND and OR

P(A) + P(B) 1 2 1 P(A and B) P(A or B) 1 1 1

Now that none of the spaces in the figure overlap, it is the P(A or B), and no longer the P(A) + P(B). This leads us to the formula...

The relationship between AND and OR

P(A or B) P(A) P(B) P(A and B)

Example: The probability of Erik Johnson wearing a green shirt (GS) is .34. The probability of him wearing a red hat (RH) is .12. What is the probability of Erik Johnson wearing either a green shirt or a red hat?

P(GS)=.34

P(RH)=.12

P(GS and RH) = .0408

P(GS or RH) = .4192

2nd way to calculate an OR statement

Now lets come up with another way to calculate an OR statement. First, lets say that event A has a chance to occur, and event A occurs. Since the requirement for OR is fulfilled if either event A or event B occurs, since event A occurs, then event (A or B) has happened.

 Now think of what happens if event A doesnt occur . The requirements for OR is not fulfilled yet. (which means event (A or B) hasnt happened yet) Now event B has a chance to occur to make the event (A or B) happen. So a 2nd way to calculate OR is P(A or B)= P(A) + (P(A not occurring) x P(B)) ( note P(A not occurring)=1-P(A) )

2nd way to calculate an OR statement

Now calculate the P(A or B) in the same example with the new formula. Example Problem: The probability of Erik Johnson wearing a green shirt (GS) is .34. The probability of him wearing a red hat (RH) is .12. What is the probability of Erik Johnson wearing either a green shirt or a red hat? P(GS or RH) = P(GS) + (P(not a GS) x P(RH)) P(GS or RH)= .34 + ((1-.34)x(.12))

P(GS or RH)=.4092

 We have now covered how to calculate the probability of two events in a AND or OR situation. We will now move on to three events.

 Question: What happens if another variable is added in? Lets find out!

The relationship between AND and OR

P(A or B) P(A) P(B) P(A and B)

This is the relationship between AND and OR we covered with two events. Now lets see what it looks like when you add in a third event.

With Three Events

P(A) P(B) P(C) P(A) + P(B) + P(C) 1 2 1 2 3 2

Note- the numbers above correspond to how many times that area of the figure is counted in the overall probability, which means if all the numbers in the figure are 1,then it is an OR statement.

With Three Events

P(A) + P(B) + P(C) 1 2 1 2 3 2 P(A and C) 1 1 1 1 0 1

P(A and B)

P(B and C)

Note- the numbers above correspond to how many times that area of the figure is counted in the overall probability, which means if all the numbers in the figure are 1,then it is an OR statement.

With Three Events

P(A and B and C) 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 P(A or B or C)

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Now that all the the numbers in the figure is one, it is an OR statement, and for three variables.

With Three Events

So combining both steps from above, a formula to solve for the P(A or B or C) would be:

P(A) + P(B) + P(C)

1 2 3 1 1

P(A and C)

P(A and B and C)

1

2
P(A and B) P(B and C)

P( A or B or C)

With Three Events

Example Problem: The probability of Erik Johnson wearing a green shirt (GS) is .34. The probability of him wearing a blue hat (BH) is .12. The probability of him wearing orange socks (OS) is .05. What is the probability of Erik wearing a green shirt, or a blue hat or orange socks?

.34 + .12 + .05

1 2 3 1 1

.34 x .05 = .017

.34 x .12 x .05 = .00204

1

2
.34 x .12 = .0408

.12 x .05 = .006

.44824

2nd way to calculate OR with Three Events

Recall: P(A or B)= P(A) + P(A not occurring) x P(B) P(A or B or C)= P(A) +P(A not occurring) x P(B) + what?? Answer: Since another variable is being added (C), you simply add P(A not occurring) x P(B not occurring) x P(C) to the old equation.

Heres the same sample problem as before calculated using this method. Example Problem: The probability of Erik Johnson wearing a green shirt (GS) is .34. The probability of him wearing a blue hat (BH) is .12. The probability of him wearing a orange socks (OS) is .05. What is the probability of Erik wearing a green shirt, or a blue hat or orange socks? P(GS or BH or OS)=P(GS) +(P(GS not occurring) x P(BH)) + (P(GS not occurring) x P(BH not occurring) x P(OS))
P(GS or BH or OS)=.34 + (1-.34) x .12 + (1-.34) x (1-.12) x (.05) P(GS or BH or OS)= .44824

 This concludes my presentation on two and three events. Any Questions?