December 31, 2012

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SUTTMEIER SAYS

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Treasury Yields 10-Year--(1.711) My daily value level is 1.754 with weekly risky level at 1.622. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 1.688 and 1.720. Commodities and Forex Comex Gold –($1657.2) My daily value level is $1622.7 with a weekly risky level at $1718.1. The 50- day and 200-day simple moving averages are $1707.3 and $1662.6. Nymex Crude Oil – ($90.75) Weekly and daily pivots are $91.29 and $92.27. The 50-day and 200- day simple moving averages are $87.35 and $92.05. The Euro – (1.3218) My weekly pivot is 1.3200 with a daily risky level at 1.3277. The 50day and 200-day simple moving averages are 1.2971 and 1.2784. Major Indices Daily DOW (12,938) My weekly value level is 12,862 with a daily risky level at 13,061. The QE3 high is 13,661.87 on October 5 with the October 2007 high at 14,198.10. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 13,069 and 13,015.

S&P 500 – (1402.4) My weekly value level is 1392.9 with a daily risky level at 1419.8. The QE3 high is 1474.51 on September 14 with the October 2007 high at 1576.09. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 1412.1 and 1390.2. NASDAQ – (2960) My weekly value level is 2935 with a daily risky level at 3007. The QE3 high is 3196.93 on September 21 is well above the November 2007 high at 2861.51. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 2981 and 2991. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2606) My weekly value level is 2584 with a daily risky level at 2646. The QE3 high is 2878.38 on September 21 is well above the November 2007 high at 2239.23. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 2649 and 2674. Dow Transports – (5221) My weekly value level is 5152 with a daily risky level at 5361. The all time high at 5627.85 was set on July 7, 2011. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 5122 and 5118. Russell 2000 – (832.10) My weekly value level is 820.87 with a daily risky level at 849.72. The QE3 high is 868.50 on September 14 with the all time high at 868.57 set on May 2, 2011. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 818.32 and 807.75. The SOX – (376.87) My weekly pivot is 376.36 with a daily risky level at 384.43. The QE3 high is 410.82 on September 14 with the July 2007 high at 549.39. The 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are 374.18 and 387.63. Stock of the Day Dollar General (DG) – Dollar General Corporation is a discount retailer in the United States. The Company separates its merchandise into four categories, which includes highly consumable, seasonal, home products and basic clothing. Highly consumable consists of packaged food, candy, snacks and refrigerated products, health and beauty aids, home cleaning supplies and pet supplies; seasonal consists of seasonal and holiday-related items, toys, stationery and hardware; home products consists of house wares and domestics, and basic clothing consists of casual everyday apparel. Dollar General is among the largest retailers of top-quality products made by America's most trusted manufacturers such as Procter & Gamble, Kimberly-Clark, Unilever, Kellogg's, General Mills, Nabisco, Fruit of the Loom, PepsiCo and Coca-Cola. The Company store support center is located in Goodlettsville, Tennessee.

Dollar General Corporation has a Buy rating according to ValuEngine with fair value at $51.65, which makes the stock 17.3% overvalued. The ValuEngine one-year price target is $47.22.The daily chart for DG shows declining momentum with the stock below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $45.26, $46.85 and $49.03. My semiannual value level is $39.16 with a weekly pivot at $45.87 and semiannual risky level at $53.23.

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Market Overview
Summary of VE Stock Universe
Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 57.50% 42.50% 21.19% 14.42%

Sector Overview
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
-1.09% -0.46% -0.57% -0.14% -0.42% -0.55% -0.71% -0.42% -0.53% -0.86% -0.55% -0.21% -0.57% -0.36% -0.57% -0.42%

MTD
3.88% 2.70% 4.90% 2.40% 1.67% 1.99% 0.38% -0.99% 1.04% 1.39% 2.89% 3.46% 1.78% 0.35% 1.61% 1.13%

YTD
7.52% 17.31% 2.83% 11.58% 35.00% 73.64% 13.19% 13.43% 31.09% 9.95% 27.27% 13.47% -5.43% 20.20% 13.85% -4.84%

Valuation
7.47% overvalued 1.85% undervalued 2.70% undervalued 8.40% overvalued 6.94% overvalued 17.98% overvalued 1.89% overvalued 13.86% overvalued 10.52% overvalued 11.31% overvalued 3.39% overvalued 2.50% undervalued 4.76% undervalued 11.69% overvalued 8.11% overvalued 4.84% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
7.75% 12.62% -13.58% 10.71% 6.79% 36.53% 9.93% 10.05% 17.22% 7.52% 12.89% 16.11% -8.39% 19.82% 5.69% 6.62%

P/E Ratio
14.4 13.63 22.68 24.19 34.65 47.83 25.28 18.63 19.59 20.45 38.18 13.39 29.98 24.94 18.76 18.23

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